Date : 17th October 2016.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th OCTOBER 2016.
Main Macro Events This Week
United States: The economic calendar is a relatively light one this week, but does include an important inflation update, a rash of housing data and the Philly Fed survey. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound to 1.0 in October (Monday), while industrial production may recover 0.1% in September, capacity utilization seen rising to 75.6% from 75.5%. CPI is projected to jump 0.3% headline (Tuesday), with a 0.2% core rise vs 0.3%. The NAHB housing market index is expected to dip to 63 in October. The MBA mortgage application survey is due (Wednesday) and we’ll see how well it absorbs the rebound in mortgage rates, while housing starts are seen rebounding 2.4% to a 1,170k pace in October. EIA energy inventories will also be monitored for any “tell” on the near-term direction of energy prices. The Philly Fed index may sink to 6.3 in October from 12.8 (Thursday), while initial jobless claims may bounce 4k to 250k. Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.2% in September vs -0.2%, while existing home sales may bounce 1.3% to 5.40 mln. The calendar is empty Friday.
Fedspeak: the big guns continue to appear this week after Yellen’s dovish long-term guidance last week, starting with Fed Vice Chairman Fischer (Monday) who has been leaning more hawkishly near-term of late. SF Fed dove Williams speaks on (Wednesday), followed by Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan in a Q&A session. NY Fed dove Dudley discusses the economic history of New York from 19:45 ET. All three have mulled the likelihood of a hike before year-end and seem inclined to follow through, barring any extraordinary events beforehand. Dudley makes another appearance on the financial industry (Thursday). Governor Tarullo speaks (Friday), followed by Williams again.
Earnings will be important this week with many heavyweights slated to announce results. Including BoA, Netflix, IBM, (Monday) Goldman Sachs, Yahoo, Intel (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley, eBay (Wednesday) , Verizon, American Airlines, PayPal (Thursday) and GE and McDonald’s (Friday).
Canada: The Bank of Canada takes center stage this week, with the announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on tap for Wednesday. There is also manufacturing report (Tuesday) and CPI (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September and 1.4% y/y growth pace in September from the 1.1% rate of gain in August.
Europe: The focus this week will be on the ECB meeting (Thursday). The data calendar, s pretty empty. Final Eurozone HICP inflation for September is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y. German September PPI inflation is also likely to see rates moving up. Preliminary October Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to improve to -8.0 from -8.2 in September.
UK: The plunge in the pound, which has been likened to an emerging world currency in a research piece from Citi last week, looks likely to continue to drive underperformance in UK sovereign debt given the risk of higher inflation. BoE Governor Carney appeared to make a verbal currency market intervention on Friday, saying that the central bank is “not indifferent” to forex levels. The helped give the pound a prop, though the impact was limited. September inflation data (Tuesday), headline CPI to tick up to a new cycle high of 0.9%. Core CPI is also seen rising to a new cycle peak, of 1.4% y/y, from 1.3%. Such a rise in CPI will be consistent with BoE projections. Monthly labour statistics are also up (Wednesday), where the rear-view unemployment measure for August is expected unchanged at 4.9%, which is the cycle low. Average weekly earnings in the three-months to August are expected rise 2.3% in the with-bonus figure, which would still be well above inflation.
China: Q3 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast to hold steady at the 6.7% y/y pace from Q2. Growth has been moderating for the last several quarters, and is down from 7.2% in Q4 2014. September industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to slip slightly to 6.2% y/y from 6.3% previously. September retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in at a 10.6% y/y clip, unchanged from August. September fixed investment is also due Wednesday, expected unchanged at an 8.1% y/y rate. September loan growth and new yuan loans are tentatively due Monday, and are expected to post a 13.1% y/y clip from 13.0%, and CNY 1,050.0 bln from CNY 948.7 bln, respectively.
Japan: The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is seen edging up 0.2% m/m from up 0.3% previously. This would be a third monthly gain. Revised industrial production has been reported and has missed expectations.
Australia: Calendar has September employment (Thursday), expected to improve 15.0k after the 3.9k drop in August. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.7% in September from 5.6% in August. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the October meeting are due (Tuesday). Governor Lowe speaks (Tuesday) at Citi’s 8th Annual Australian & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th OCTOBER 2016.
Main Macro Events This Week
United States: The economic calendar is a relatively light one this week, but does include an important inflation update, a rash of housing data and the Philly Fed survey. The Empire State index is forecast to rebound to 1.0 in October (Monday), while industrial production may recover 0.1% in September, capacity utilization seen rising to 75.6% from 75.5%. CPI is projected to jump 0.3% headline (Tuesday), with a 0.2% core rise vs 0.3%. The NAHB housing market index is expected to dip to 63 in October. The MBA mortgage application survey is due (Wednesday) and we’ll see how well it absorbs the rebound in mortgage rates, while housing starts are seen rebounding 2.4% to a 1,170k pace in October. EIA energy inventories will also be monitored for any “tell” on the near-term direction of energy prices. The Philly Fed index may sink to 6.3 in October from 12.8 (Thursday), while initial jobless claims may bounce 4k to 250k. Leading indicators are expected to rise 0.2% in September vs -0.2%, while existing home sales may bounce 1.3% to 5.40 mln. The calendar is empty Friday.
Fedspeak: the big guns continue to appear this week after Yellen’s dovish long-term guidance last week, starting with Fed Vice Chairman Fischer (Monday) who has been leaning more hawkishly near-term of late. SF Fed dove Williams speaks on (Wednesday), followed by Dallas Fed moderate Kaplan in a Q&A session. NY Fed dove Dudley discusses the economic history of New York from 19:45 ET. All three have mulled the likelihood of a hike before year-end and seem inclined to follow through, barring any extraordinary events beforehand. Dudley makes another appearance on the financial industry (Thursday). Governor Tarullo speaks (Friday), followed by Williams again.
Earnings will be important this week with many heavyweights slated to announce results. Including BoA, Netflix, IBM, (Monday) Goldman Sachs, Yahoo, Intel (Tuesday), Morgan Stanley, eBay (Wednesday) , Verizon, American Airlines, PayPal (Thursday) and GE and McDonald’s (Friday).
Canada: The Bank of Canada takes center stage this week, with the announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on tap for Wednesday. There is also manufacturing report (Tuesday) and CPI (Friday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m in September and 1.4% y/y growth pace in September from the 1.1% rate of gain in August.
Europe: The focus this week will be on the ECB meeting (Thursday). The data calendar, s pretty empty. Final Eurozone HICP inflation for September is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% y/y. German September PPI inflation is also likely to see rates moving up. Preliminary October Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to improve to -8.0 from -8.2 in September.
UK: The plunge in the pound, which has been likened to an emerging world currency in a research piece from Citi last week, looks likely to continue to drive underperformance in UK sovereign debt given the risk of higher inflation. BoE Governor Carney appeared to make a verbal currency market intervention on Friday, saying that the central bank is “not indifferent” to forex levels. The helped give the pound a prop, though the impact was limited. September inflation data (Tuesday), headline CPI to tick up to a new cycle high of 0.9%. Core CPI is also seen rising to a new cycle peak, of 1.4% y/y, from 1.3%. Such a rise in CPI will be consistent with BoE projections. Monthly labour statistics are also up (Wednesday), where the rear-view unemployment measure for August is expected unchanged at 4.9%, which is the cycle low. Average weekly earnings in the three-months to August are expected rise 2.3% in the with-bonus figure, which would still be well above inflation.
China: Q3 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast to hold steady at the 6.7% y/y pace from Q2. Growth has been moderating for the last several quarters, and is down from 7.2% in Q4 2014. September industrial production (Wednesday) is expected to slip slightly to 6.2% y/y from 6.3% previously. September retail sales (Wednesday) are penciled in at a 10.6% y/y clip, unchanged from August. September fixed investment is also due Wednesday, expected unchanged at an 8.1% y/y rate. September loan growth and new yuan loans are tentatively due Monday, and are expected to post a 13.1% y/y clip from 13.0%, and CNY 1,050.0 bln from CNY 948.7 bln, respectively.
Japan: The August all-industry index (Wednesday) is seen edging up 0.2% m/m from up 0.3% previously. This would be a third monthly gain. Revised industrial production has been reported and has missed expectations.
Australia: Calendar has September employment (Thursday), expected to improve 15.0k after the 3.9k drop in August. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 5.7% in September from 5.6% in August. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the October meeting are due (Tuesday). Governor Lowe speaks (Tuesday) at Citi’s 8th Annual Australian & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.