Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN
10:48 10.07.2017

Bears faced support at 1.2860, so there's a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the price to resistance at 1.2915. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the 89 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line arrives afterwards, there'll be an option to have the price higher, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.2926 - 1.2947 as an intraday target.

The price found support at 1.2860, so we've got a "Triple Top", which led to decline to the 89 Moving Average. Also, there's a developing "Flag" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2915 - 1.2926 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this target happens, bears will probably try to achieve support at 1.2860 - 1.2830.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"v_bottom"_pattern_2102

 

[riki143]

OIL MARKET OVERVIEW
11:10 10.07.2017

Oil prices recovered some losses at the start of the week, rebounding from a 3% fall in the previous session amid a stronger USD and oversupply worries.

The number of active US oil rigs increased by 7 bringing the total count to 763 rigs this week, according to data published by Baker Hughes on Friday. The data contradicted investors’ expectations of the continued rig count fall, after the previous week decline (the first one from January).

The rising activity of the US oil industry comes as OPEC’s supplies remain ample despite the group’s commitment to cut output by the end of March 2018. OPEC exported around 26 million barrels per day in last month which 450000 barrels per day more than in May despite the extension of the OPEC’s output cut deal.

Additional drag was upbeat nonfarm payrolls data from the US that triggered USD buying.

This week modest rebound in oil prices was a reflection of opportunistic buying after the Friday’s downfall. Another boost was the news about the OPEC’s intention to cap unlimited supply of oil from Nigeria and Libya pumping industries. Up to day, they were exempt from OPEC’s production cut agreement due to their internal turbulences. After the appeasement, their production capacities have improved. Libya’s crude oil output has surged to more than one million barrels a day, up from 400 thousand in October, while Nigeria’s output has risen to 1.6 million barrels a day, up from 200,000 barrels a day in October.

These are significant increases. Nobody argues with that. Nevertheless, the main concern of investors is rising US oil output. The US Energy Information Administration said the US output has increased to almost 9.34 million barrels per day last week dragging oil prices downwards (the earlier rally had started due to US oil production’s downfall).

The African produced were invited to participate at the OPEC-non-OPEC meeting on July 24 in Saint-Petersburg to discuss the levels and stability of their production. If Libya and Nigeria manage to stabilize their oil production at today’s levels, they will be asked to decrease it as soon as possible. The other participants of production cut agreement won’t be demanded additional sacrifices. Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary General of OPEC, told media in Istanbul before the World Petroleum Congress (July 9-13) that OPEC/non-OPEC ministerial committee are not going to discuss the possibility of further cuts.

In the short-term, the oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the influence of the data reflecting the performance of the US oil industry (weekly crude inventory estimates coming on Wednesday, and Friday’s Baker Hughes rig count). As we approach the OPEC/non-OPEC meeting the focus will be on the participants’ decision to curb or not curb the African countries’ production, to discuss the prolongation of the output cut deal or leave this question open.

At the time of writing, Brent oil futures are trading at $46.75 well below the psychologically important level of $50. They added some gains in Tokyo morning, then lost their zest as the European session commenced. WTI futures are down to $44.23 from today’s opening price of $44.52

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview_2104

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: WAVE GOING TO BE CONTINUED
11:19 10.07.2017

There's another pullback from 3/8 MM Level, so wave is likely going to be continued. Previously, an impulse in wave C of (E) has been formed. So, we should keep an eye on 0/8 MM Level (1.1230) as the next intraday bearish target.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible flat pattern in wave (ii). Also, we've got a downward impulse in wave i. If a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happens in the coming hours, bears are likely going to deliver wave iii of (iii). The main target is 1/8 MM Level (1.1261).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_wave_[i]_going_to_be_continued_2106

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARISH "ENGULFING"
13:54 10.07.2017

We've got a bearish "Tower", which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will have a green light to continue pushing price higher until any reversal pattern forms.

There's a confirmed bearish "Engulfing" at the local high. In this case, we should keen in mind the 89 Moving Average as an intraday target. If we see a pullback from this line afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a local bullish correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bearish_"engulfing"_2107

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: THERE ISN'T ANY REVERSAL PATTERN SO FAR
13:56 10.07.2017

The price has been rising since a "High Wave" pattern formed at the last local low. Meanwhile, there isn't any bearish pattern so far, which means the market is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, we could have a bearish correction.

Bulls faced a resistance area, but we still don't have any bearish pattern. So, we could have the price a little bit higher in the coming hours. However, if we see any reversal pattern later on, there'll be time to have a downward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_there_isn't_any_reversal_pattern_so_far_2108

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR JULY 10 -14
13:58 10.07.2017

The British pound fell against the dollar in the past week as the UK data indicated that manufacturing, industrial and construction output declined in May. A slightly stronger USD which was brought about by an upbeat NFP release resulted in a swift correction towards 1.2865.

The economic figures pointing to an economic slowdown released in the course of the past week may prevent the Bank of England from rising its borrowing costs. UK average hourly earnings and unemployment data are due on Wednesday. An indication of wage growth would slightly raise the probability of a rate hike this year and provide a modest support to sterling. Towards the end of the week, traders will be focused on the Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony as well as on the spate of the US economic data. If traders qualify Yellen’s statement as hawkish, the USD will gain some strength. The US inflation report, retail sales, and industrial production data will be released on Friday. Strong readings could also accord some support to the US dollar.

GBP/USD has recently dropped below 1.2875 (50 day MA). The technical outlook is still neutral though. The pound has likely moved into a consolidation phase. In the upcoming sessions, it will be trading within the broad range of 1.2800 (23.6% Fibo traced from this year low) and 1.3045 (this year high). The immediate bias is to probe lower levels. A break of the lower border of consolidation range will likely lead to the continuation of the downward movement towards 1.2682 (100-day MA), 1.2640 (38.2% Fibo level).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_july_10__14_2109

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD INSIDE A STRONG SELL ZONE
00:00 11.07.2017

GBP/AUD managed to reach the 200 SMA at H4 chart, but it was sold-off in a supply zone established by our Fibonacci projections. According to the theory, the pair pulled back from the range between the 1.7051 and 1.7155 levels across the board, which coincides with the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci areas and the 200 SMA. If the bearish path continues to strengthen, then we may expect the next mid-term target to be tested around 1.6403 (-23.6%).

RSI indicator is at the negative territory, favoring the downside scenario.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_aud_inside_a_strong_sell_zone_2114

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 11
08:37 11.07.2017

The ranges were small today in Asia. Let’s say that it is a period of consolidation for markets ahead of a really busy calendar that sees the opening of the US earning season amid central bankers’ meetings and speaking in the upcoming hours.

USD/JPY ticked higher on the session to 114.20. To maintain the bullish impetus, the US dollar has to move and stay above 113.55. So, there might be a continuation of the rally in the next sessions.

The euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.380 – 1.420. Although the recent rally is on the wane. There is scope for an extension to 1.1445. The ECB’s Coeure is set to give some opening remarks at an FX conference. But it shouldn’t be a market moving event. In contrast, Fed Governor Lael Brainard’s speech should draw much more attention ahead of Yellen’s testimony scheduled for tomorrow. She is from dovish camp; might be cautious to talk about additional hikes; soft inflation releases may become a main impediment to the next rate increase.

Aussie traded a bit higher in Tokyo morning. It rose to 0.7610 against the USD. National Austral Bank released its survey earlier today. Business conditions were super strong for the indicator (15 against prior 11). Business confidence index rose by a more modest 1 point in June, to be at 9 (it is still above the average +6 which is a very encouraging outcome for employment and capital expenditure). The technical outlook is neutral. AUD/USD will likely trade within the range of 0.7540 – 0.7660 in the upcoming sessions.

Sterling slipped some points in Tokyo morning and reached 1.2870 from this week high of 1.2908. It seems that the pound is still in a consolidation phase. Although there is a hint for sliding lower towards the solid support at 1.2800. The BoE chief economist Andy Haldane is speaking today. He will probably be dovish with such comments as “future rate increases would be limited and gradual”, weak wage growth repeatedly surprised the BoE’s officials. Traders are still perplexed over a rate hike in the next months as, on the one hand, they receive more or less hawkish comments from the BoE’s policymakers, and on the other hand, they receive quite week economic headings (Friday’s manufacturing data was not successful. Tomorrow’s labor market report will be closely watched by GBP buyers/sellers.

USD/CAD is a bit higher on the back of the much anticipated Bank of Canada meeting scheduled for tomorrow. While forecasts are divided on whether the central banks will tighten its monetary policy or not, the money markets have almost fully priced for a rate increase. In the short term, USD/CAD will likely trade sideways between 1.2823 – 1.3236.

Oil prices were a little bit higher in the Asian session lifted by a strong demand outlook for the coming weeks. The overall market conditions are still weak with the supply glut and a more subdued outlook for the future demand. Brent futures are now at $46.95.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_11_2122

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO IN CONSOLIDATION
09:06 11.07.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1380; resistance – 1.1430.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1380; SL — 1.1360; TP1 — 1.1430; TP2 – 1.1500.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is in consolidation near the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_in_consolidation_2123

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND GOING TO SENKOU SPAN B
09:07 11.07.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2840, 1.2810; resistance – 1.2920.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2840; SL — 1.2820; TP1 — 1.2920; TP2 — 1.3020.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices entered into the Cloud; strong support of Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_going_to_senkou_span_b_2124

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: BEARS PREPARE TRAPS
10:09 11.07.2017
On the USD/CAD daily chart, target 113% of the Shark pattern has been fulfilled. This increases the risks of the rollback towards 23.6%, 50% and 61.8% of the CD wave in the course of transformation of the Shark pattern into 5-0. The correction can be used for opening short positions.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The Bears remain their control over the pair. Breaks of resistances at 1.2935 and 1.3005 will lead to the development of correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_bears_prepare_traps__2127

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: BULLS DON’T BELIEVE IN THEIR STRENGTH
10:10 11.07.2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 0.7575 – 0.7635 within the correction towards the upward near-term trend. To restore the uptrend, the Bulls need to meet the following conditions: to test the resistance at 0.7635 and to return quotes within the borders of the upward trading channel.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the failure of the Bulls to test the resistance at 0.7675 – 0.768 might lead to the formation of the Head and Shoulders pattern. For its realization, a downfall of quotes below the supports at 0.7575 – 0.758 is needed.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_bulls_don’t_believe_in_their_strength_2128

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: DEVELOPING BULLISH PATTERN
11:15 11.07.2017

The price is consolidating between the levels 1.1444 - 1.1387. We've got a developing bullish pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.1444 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.1365 - 1.1354.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the 55 Moving Average. Also, we've got a bullish "Flag" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.1439 - 1.1444 in the coming hours. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test support at 1.1365 - 1.1354.

More:
[https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...eur_usd:_developing_bullish_pattern_2132[/URL]

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "DOUBLE BOTTOM" PATTERN
11:19 11.07.2017

Bears faced support on the 55 Moving Average, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2926 - 1.2947. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as the next bearish target.

There's a "Double Bottom" pattern, so the price is consolidating under resistance at 1.2887. At the same time, we've got a bullish "Pennant" pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.2915 - 1.2926. Nevertheless, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"double_bottom"_pattern_2133

 

[riki143]

BITCOIN MIGHT SPLIT IN TWO
11:47 11.07.2017

The Bitcoin surged 160% this year as more and more people become attracted to its cyber shine. Some crypto adepts advise other traders to brace for extreme swings and troughs in the BTC/USD movement towards the end of this month as the conflict between the Core (Bitcoin’s developers) and miners will soon be resolved (or not).

I bet while trading BTC you’ve probably never heard of their scuffles. No wonder, these were largely behind-the-scenes wrangles that lasted years. Behind them is an ideological split about coin’s rightful identity. One part of the crypto community wishes the Bitcoin became an asset like gold, another one wants it to act as a payment system.

The blockchain has a limit on how many transactions it can process. As the BTC’s popularity grew, transaction times and processing fees climbed to record levels making the blockchain less effective than other payment systems like Visa Inc. The two parties playing the major roles in BTC’s upkeep suggested two solutions to the following problems.

The Core, a group of developers responsible for upholding BTC’s cyber security, insisted on processing some of the blockchain’s data outside the main network (the proposal was called SegWit). They claimed that is the only way to reduce congestion. But the removal of the data from the blockchain significantly diminishes the influence of miners who have invested lots of money on giant server farms.

Miners acting generally against the establishment of SegWit technology agreed to support it on a condition that the overall block size will be increased. This proposal got the name of SegWit2x (includes implementation of SegWit and increase of the block size limit).

Some advocates of the Core’s proposal push another agenda called UASF which would reject transactions that are not compliant with SegWit. If most of the miners fail to adopt SegWit by August 1, two versions of bitcoin will be created. This event will certainly send a bunch of shockwaves through the $41 billion market. We just wanted you were beware of such moves and take precautionary measures beforehand.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/bitcoin_might_split_in_two_2134

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "ENGULFING" AT THE LOCAL LOW
15:25 11.07.2017

There's a bearish "Tower" pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 55 Moving Average. If we see any bullish pattern on this line afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

We've got a confirmed "Engulfing" at the local low. Considering confirmation of this pattern, the pair is likely going to get support on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, the current upward correction will go on.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"engulfing"_at_the_local_low_2139

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO TEST NEAREST RESISTANCE
15:28 11.07.2017

The price is still rising and there isn't any reversal pattern so far. So, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for a bearish correction. Anyway, we should have an eye on the next "Window" as a possible intraday target.

There's a "Shooting Star", but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, we could have an intraday downward correction and a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bulls_going_to_test_nearest_resistance_2140

 

[riki143]

THE GUIDANCE FOR JANET YELLEN’S TESTIMONY
15:31 11.07.2017

Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, is set to deliver her semiannual testimony to Congressional lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday. Traders will be focused on her view regarding interest rate policy and on the timing of the Fed’s balance sheet wind down. In the latest FOMC meeting minutes, the Fed remained silent about the timing of reducing its reinvestment flows. There was a hint that Fed officials would like to announce the start of the process of trimming asset holdings in a couple of months. That is probably at their meeting in September.

Some analysts believe that Yellen’s testimony will narrow the gap between the Fed’s assessment of the policy outlook and what the what the market is currently anticipating. Investors have doubted the Fed will raise rates for a third time this year, giving just 49.1% odds for a December rate increase and less than 20% odds for a rate hike in precedent months.

Which effect Yellen’s testimony may produce on the USD? This is a bit tough questions. It might happen that nobody would listen what Yellen tells about Fed’s tightening path. Some analysts believe that investors are currently more interested in whether other major central banks will step into tightening cycle or not. The US dollar traders have already got used to the Fed’s continuous hawkishness. So, their reaction to Yellen’s testimony, even if it is hawkish enough, will not produce great moves. In contrast, any signal of monetary policy tightening form the Bank of England, the ECB, or other major central banks would be well reflected in the currencies’ price movements.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the_guidance_for_janet_yellen’s_testimony_2141

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD LOOKING FOR DOWNSIDE TARGETS
00:28 12.07.2017

Loonie has been weak and given that decline, it has started to correct its overall bias. Currently, buyers are being capped by the Fibonacci retracement zone established by the 61.8% and 50% in 1.2941 and 1.2901 respectively. That’s one trigger to sell the pair, with a target placed around 1.2826, at which is located the Fibo retracement level of -23.6%. To invalidate such scenario, USD/CAD needs to break above 1.2963 (78.6%) and consolidates above the 200 SMA at H1 chart with a higher high pattern.

RSI indicator remains slightly bullish, calling for more upside in the pair.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad_looking_for_downside_targets_2146

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 12
08:59 12.07.2017

A fresh twist in the controversy over Donald Trump’s alleged collusion with Russia provided a portion of volatility overnight. Trump’s eldest son released a streak of email in which he would welcome the possibility of Russia helping his father to win the election via compromising information about Hillary Clinton. The US dollar tumbled against most currencies on the news. Fed Governor Brainard added to the USD weakness having said that she would abstain from the provision of additional hike suggesting the Fed moved cautiously on a rate hike. She also signaled that she is comfortable with the Fed’s plans to reduce its balance sheet “soon”. How soon is one of the key questions for markets today.

USD/JPY moved lower from overnight shedding additional pips from the recent high of 114.45. The Bank of Japan’s bond-buying operations usually resulting in a bid for USD was not effective today. At the present moment, the pair is trading at 113.40. A move below this level would indicate that the bullish phase has ended and that a consolidation phase has started.

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1488 on a softer USD. The outlook has finally shifted from neutral to bullish. Not to this impulsive momentum, the euro has to continue to accelerate its pace upwards, otherwise, there will be a swift rollback. Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress is today’s event highlight in the upcoming session. The key message is expected to remain unchanged with Fed introducing additional hike in the second half of this year and starting to trim its balance sheet.

Aussie recovered its last week losses reaching 0.7655 from the recent low of 0.7570. A weaker USD and iron ore prices upsurge were the main contributors to AUD’s rally. From current levels, AUD may grind higher towards 0.7685. A move towards 0.7710 will complicate; most likely there will be a rollback.

Kiwi has also managed to rise higher reversing some of its earlier losses. At the present moment, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7235. There is a scope for extension towards 0.7250. In contrast, a break below 0.7230 would indicate a move towards 0.7185/0.7150 levels.

Sterling posted some gains against USD in Tokyo morning. We will receive the US labor market statistics later today (at 11:30 MT time). The market expects the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.6%. Average hourly earnings will likely decline to 1.8% from 2.1% previously.

USD/CAD slipped some points in the Asian session and reached 1.2897 from yesterday’s high of 1.2940. Oil prices extended their gains yesterday as the U.S. government cut its crude production outlook for next year and as oil stockpiles declined. Brent oil futures rose to $48.35 from yesterday’s low at 46.27.

The Bank of Canada today will likely be the first major central bank to increase its rates following the Fed. The BOC communications made us believe that a rate hike is imminent, but when it is delivered, the Loonie will be well supported (unless BoC policymakers say that further tightening will be extremely gradual).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_12_2153