Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

NZD/CHF REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
17:15 05.06.2017

NZD/CHF reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 0.7000

NZD/CHF continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful long-term support level 0.6750 (former major resistance level which has been reversing the price at the start of 2016), lower weekly Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp weekly upward impulse from August of 2015. The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line. NZD/CHF is expected to rise toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 0.7000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_chf_reversed_from_support_zone_1424

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
17:17 05.06.2017

AUD/JPY reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 84.00

AUD/JPY today reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 82.00 (which reversed with the daily Hammer the pervious intermediate ABC correction (2) in May), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the pervious sharp upward impulse from last November. Considering the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - AUD/JPY is expected to rise in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 84.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in May).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_jpy_reversed_from_support_zone_1425

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO STAYED ABOVE TENKAN-SEN
05:10 06.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1250; resistance – 1.1360.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1250/60; SL — 1.1230; TP1 — 1.1340; TP2 – 1.1360.
Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, horizontal Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market is overbought, but prices are supported by Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_stayed_above_tenkan_sen_1431

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND BROKE SSB’S RESISTANCE
05:11 06.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2900; resistance – 1.2980.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2920; SL — 1.2900; TP1 — 1.2980; TP2 — 1.3050.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen under the Cloud; the prices broke the Cloud’s resistance and entered into the positive area.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_broke_ssb’s_resistance_1432

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 6: IT IS ALL ABOUT THURSDAY
05:47 06.06.2017

Markets today are exceptionally quiet before the great Thursday with ECB meeting, UK general election, and Comey’s testimony all scheduled for the same day.

The yen strengthened to 109.86 against the USD in Tokyo reaching its highest level since April 25. USD/JPY may extend its downfall to 108.85 in the short-term unless USD manages to reclaim its positions.

The US dollar index which tracks the USD against a basket of its trade-weighted peers hit its seven-month low ahead James Comey testimony before Congress scheduled on Thursday.

The euro pared its yesterday’s losses and rose above 1.1265 ahead of the ECB meeting which is due on Thursday. A Bloomberg survey showed 90% analysts anticipate the ECB to upgrade its risks around the Eurozone recovery to balanced. The main focus will be on whether the central bank removes its easing bias on interest rates. If it is the case, we will see the EUR posting new gains against USD. The technical outlook for EUR/USD is still positive. To reaffirm our expectations, the pair should break a solid resistance at 1.1300. Otherwise, it may slide lower towards the support at 1.1210.

Australian dollar registered new highs in Tokyo morning following the RBA rate announcement. The central bank left its rates and policy unchanged saying that current monetary policy settings is consistent with growth and inflation targets. It also noted that an appreciating A$ would complicate economic rebalancing. The undertone for AUD/USD is still positive. Aussie may extend its recent rebound started last week at least to 0.7520. From here, a sustained move upside is not expected. The AUD/USD may rollback towards the support at 0.7425.

GBP recovered from its recent drop and rose to 1.2925 after a Guardian/ICM poll showed Tories have an eleven-point lead over Labour. The general election is scheduled for Thursday. We would cautious to change our neutral outlook at this stage before the Thursday’s ground-shaking event. Now, GBP/USD is trading range bound within the 1.2765 – 1.2950 levels.

USD/CAD dropped below 1.3460 overnight mainly on surging oil prices. The latter ones were trading a little bit higher in Monday’s session being driven by the political clash in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain cut their ties with Qatar with the aim to punish the nation for its links with Islamist groups. In Tokyo morning, traders downplayed their concerns that Qatar’s isolation might hamper its oil supply. So, the Brent and WTI oil futures suffered significant losses. Brent crude declined to $49.23, WTI – to $47.15 from yesterday’s high at $48.42.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_6:_it_is_all_about_thursday_1436

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS STRENGTHEN THEIR GRIP
06:22 06.06.2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the quotes are moving towards the resistance at 1.1345 (78.6% of the last downward wave). Until the euro breaks the support at 1.117 the pair will be under the Bulls' control. For the development of the correction, the quotes should fall below 1.113.



On the EUR/USD hourly chart, a break of the lower border of the upward trading channel and the combination of the "Three Indian" and 1-2-3 patterns will create prerequisites for a rollback. The target of the corrective movement is the convergence zone of 1.121-1.1215 (target in the Gartley pattern + psychologically important support).

[IMG]

More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bulls_strengthen_their_grip_1437]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bulls_strengthen_their_grip_1437[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: BULLS ARE GRASPING AT STRAW
06:23 06.06.2017

Recommendations:

SELL 0,962 SL 0,9675 TP1 0,952 TP2 0,9535,

BUY 0,9665 SL 0,961 TP1 0,9745 TP2 0,978.

On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is an acceleration of the downtrend. If the Bears manage to keep the quotes below the support at 0.9635 ($88.6 from the last ascending near-term wave), the risks for the continuation of the rally towards 0.9435 will increase.



On the USD/CHF hourly chart, activation of the inverted Crab pattern in the case of the breakout of the resistance at 0.9665 might lead to the implementation of the Wolfe Wave pattern. In contrast, a break of the support at 0.962 will send quotes lower.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf:_bulls_are_grasping_at_straw_1438

 

[riki143]

THURSDAY'S TRIPLE RIPPLE EFFECT: UK ELECTIONS, COMEY'S TESTIMONY AND ECB MEETING
07:44 06.06.2017

This is all about this Thursday when the UK general election together with the ECB monetary policy meeting will be held and James Comey will testify before Congress on whether Trump pressured him to end the Russian probe into Michael Flynn or not.

The UK elections
There are three scenarios of how this election may unfold

Conservatives win a solid majority of votes. The following result will accord at least modest relief for the British pound.

Conservatives do secure victory but without a material improvement in their majority. The undertone for GBP in this scenario will be negative.

A hung parliament with no party having an absolute majority of votes. If the following scenario materializes, the immediate pound’s reaction will be negative.

At around 10 pm GMT +1 voting ends across the UK and broadcaster release their exit poll. Normally, they are quite good at predicting the actual results. The exit poll of the 2015 general election showed that David Cameron was on course to remain Prime Minister with the Tories as the biggest party in parliament. This was an accurate prediction. 4 am GMT +1 will be probably the busiest time for traders, as the shape of the new parliament should be already clear unless the parties have the equal share of votes.

At 7 am GMT+3 the latest result of the election will be announced. It will be almost over, as there will only six more results to appear till noon. By that time, we will already know who is the prime minister and what is the form of the new cabinet.

The ECB monetary policy meeting
The European Central Bank is set to deliver its interest rate and monetary policy statement at 2:45 pm MT time. Many analysts expect the ECB to upgrade its risk around the Eurozone economic recovery to balanced. Notwithstanding the solid economic data, the ECB may sound a less hawkish and more dovish given the fact that underlying inflation pressures remain subdued. If this eventuates, the euro will be titled to the downside taking into account already hawkish market expectations. But the euro’s slide wouldn’t be extensive as the USD on Thursday will likely remain weak as well because of James Comey testimony.

James Comey’s testimony on Russia
Former FBI Director James Comey is poised to testify before the US Senate intelligence committee. He will answer the question about Russian interference in the last year presidential election. Comey’s testimony is scheduled to begin at 10 am Eastern time (6 pm MT time).

Last month, the New York Times alleged that Trump had asked Comey to drop an FBI investigation into possible links of his former national security advisor Michael Flynn with Russian entities. This was regarded by lawyers as an obstruction of justice – an impeachable offense. If allegations are confirmed by Comey, the USD will be hurt.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/...ions,_comey's_testimony_and_ecb_meeting__1440

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
08:05 06.06.2017

There's a consolidation, which is taking place under resistance at 1.1287. So, the market is likely going to decline towards support at 1.1232 - 1.1204. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1325.

The price is consolidating between the nearest resistance at 1.1278 and the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have a chance to reach the next resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bulls_pushing_price_higher_1441

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BROKEN "TRIANGLE"
08:32 06.06.2017

Bulls faced resistance at 1.2945, so the pair is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.2901 in the short term. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an option to have the price higher. In this case, we should keep in mind resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2988 as an intraday target.

The last "Triangle" pattern has been broken, so we've got a new local high. However, the price couldn't go through resistance at 1.2935 - 1.2952, so bears are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average. If we have a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.2964.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_broken_"triangle"_1444

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: RESISTANCE BY THE UPPER "WINDOW"
12:33 06.06.2017

There's resistance by the upper "Window", so we've got a bearish "Tweezers", which has been confirmed. Therefore, there's an opportunity to have a correction in the direction of the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement.

We've got a bearish correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. However, there's a "High Wave", so bulls are likely going to deliver a local upward correction. Nevertheless, the main intraday target is the 144 Moving Average, so we could have the market even lower.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_resistance_by_the_upper_"window"_1446

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: LOCAL CORRECTION COMING SOON
13:05 06.06.2017

The price reached the nearest "Window", so there's an opportunity to have a bullish pattern. If so, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline. In this case, we should keep an eye on the next "Window" as an intraday bearish target.

We've got two bearish "Three Methods" in a row, so the pair is likely going to continue moving down. However, there's also an option to have a local upward correction during the day. Anyway, we could have the market even lower soon.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_local_correction_coming_soon_1447

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: DEVELOPING IMPULSE
14:58 06.06.2017

There's a developing impulse in wave [c] of 2 with a diagonal triangle in wave (v). If a pullback from the upper side of this pattern happens, bears are likely going to test 3/8 MM Level.

Wave iv of (v) may have been ended, so we could have a new local high in the coming hours. Meanwhile, if the price finds a lodgment under 8/8 MM Level, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of 7/8 MM Level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_developing_impulse_1450

 

[riki143]

GBP/NZD REACHED SELL TARGET 1.8000
15:39 06.06.2017

GBP/NZD reached sell target 1.8000

Next sell target - 1.7630

GBP/NZD today broke through the support zone lying between the round support level 1.8000 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair and which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 in May) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the pervious upward price impulse from February. The breakout of this support zone should accelerate the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse (C) wave from the start of May. GBP/NZD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.7630.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_nzd_reached_sell_target_1.8000_1451

 

[riki143]

EUR/NZD REACHED SELL TARGET 1.5700
15:41 06.06.2017

EUR/NZD reached sell target 1.5700
Next sell target - 1.5480
EUR/NZD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.5700 (previous sell target, which has been reversing the price from the start of May, as can be seen from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The breakout of the support level 1.5700 should accelerate the active minor ABC correction 2 – which started earlier from the key resistance level 1.6200. EUR/NZD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 1.5480 (previous resistance level from March and the target price for the termination of the active correction 2).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_nzd_reached_sell_target_1.5700_1452

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE UNDER MAY’S HIGHS
05:14 07.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7510, 0.7480; resistance – 0.7550.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7550; SL — 0.7570; TP1 — 0.7510; TP2 — 0.7480.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are under the strong resistance of May; the market is overbought and expected a correctional movements.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_under_may’s_highs_1460

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOWNTREND CONTINUES
05:16 07.06.2017

Technical levels: support – 108.70; resistance – 109.90.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109.90; SL — 110.10; TP1 — 109.10; TP2 — 108.70.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling Tenkan-sen; the prices formed a new lows, but market is oversold and Dollar may go to Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_downtrend_continues_1461

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR JUNE 7
05:57 07.06.2017

There is lots of anxiety ahead of Thursday’s events. Nervous investors streamed into low-risk bonds and other safe-haven assets ruled by fears of Britain general election, the ECB policy meeting and James Comey’s testimony, all planned for Thursday.

The US dollar weakness reverberated across the trading desk on Tuesday. The yen was a great outperformer. It strengthened to 109.20 yesterday. In Tokyo morning, the USD regained its strength and popped a little higher to 109.55.

EUR/USD acted in the similar pattern. Yesterday, the single currency picked higher due to weaker USD. In the Asian session, it fell to 1.1265. The ECB meeting will have to decide whether there will a considerable rebound from the present level to the key resistance at 1.1300.

AUD/USD picked up on the positive quarterly GDP out of Australia beating investors’ worst fear. It posted a 0.3% gain which is tiny little comparing the forecasts envisioned by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The undertone for this pair is largely positive. It is trading at 0.7535 and may surge higher at least towards 0.7555/0.7575 levels. Extension beyond the following levels is unlikely.

GBP/USD continues to trade sideways waiting for the major event of this week – the UK general election. Some polls indicate that Conservative party of the incumbent PM Theresa May is on course to increase its parliamentary majority, while others show the narrowing gap between the Tories and Labor. Don’t miss housing prices coming from Halifax Ban of Scotland.

USD/CAD ticked a little bit higher in the Asian session. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian building permits.

Brent crude futures is hovering near $50. It rose overnight due to rising tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, OAE, Bahrain cut links with Qatar having accused it for supporting Islamist groups, Despite the sanctions imposed by the neighboring countries, Qatar pledged to fulfill its obligations under the OPEC agreement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_june_7_1463

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND DREAMS OF REVENGE
06:11 07.06.2017

The GBP/USD daily chart, the transformation of the Shark pattern into 5-0 continues. If bulls fail to return to the borders of the upward trading channels. It will be a signal of their weakness and will allow us to sell the pound from the break of support at 1.284 (23.6% of the CD wave). In contrast, a test of the solid resistance at 1.3024 (88.6% of the CD wave) will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally.



On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the realization of the expanding wedge pattern continues. As long as the quotes are above the supports at 1.284 and 1.278, the Bulls retain their control over the pair.



Recommendations:

SELL 1,284 SL 1,2895 TP1 1,274 TP2 1,264,

BUY 1,3025 SL 1,297 TP 1,3125.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_pound_dreams_of_revenge_1464

 

[riki143]

DAILY OIL MARKET OVERVIEW
07:57 07.06.2017

The oil prices are higher at the time of writing. They managed to regain their strength that was undermined after OPEC meeting on May 25. The market participants expected deeper and longer cuts from OPEC market, but were disappointed with the meeting’s outcome. Since then they have been selling into every bounce. On Monday, oil prices were hit by announcement that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain cut their links with Qatar seeking to punish the country for according assistance to Islamist groups. Traders feared that a political rift between these Arab countries would undermine OPEC’s effort to curb global oil glut.

Tuesday was a happy day crude oil futures. As market realized geopolitical tension is unlikely to become more severe in the Middle East, with Qatar clearly wanting to diffuse the politically charged environment rather than to escalate it. Qatar’s policymakers have recently pledged to adhere to their commitment under the output cut agreement. Even if it did refuse to comply with OPEC agreement, the implications for the oil market would be minimal, given the fact that Qatar’s commitment to cut amounts to just 30,000 barrels a day.

Today analysts expect US official data from the Energy Information Administration to print a ninth-straight decline in domestic crude inventories. This should offer some support to currently falling oil prices.

At the present moment, Brent oil futures are hovering near $49.80. If the EIA data does reveal a drop in the US crude oil inventories, the futures will rise higher towards the psychologically resistance at $50 or higher.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/daily_oil_market_overview_1466