Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: BEARS WANT TO DEVELOP CORRECTION
06:32 29.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 124,9 SL 1,2435 TP 127,9.

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, bears launched a counterattack willing to develop correction and push quotes beyond the upward trading channel. As a result, the Double-Top pattern was formed. To restore the uptrend, buyers need to test the resistance at 125.75.

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 124.15-124.5. A breakout of its lower border can result in the development of the correction towards 122.85 (88.6% target in the Shark pattern). A successful test of the resistance at 124.9 can lead to the uptrend restoration.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_jpy:_bears_want_to_develop_correction_1298

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS WAIT FOR THE SIGNAL TO ATTACK
06:33 29.05.2017
Recommendation: BUY 111,95 SL 111,4 TP 113,9 TP2 117.

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the transformation of the inverted Shark pattern into 5-0 continues. A corrective movement towards 50% and 61.8% levels of the CD wave can be used for opening long positions. In the current situation, it is better to wait for the moment when the resistance at 111.95 is tested. A successful test of this resistance may result in activation of the Crab pattern with target 161.8%.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the Expanding wedge pattern is formed. To complete it, the point 5 should be formed. A break of the resistance at 111.5 will allow us to open long positions.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bulls_wait_for_the_signal_to_attack_1299

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN
08:01 29.05.2017

The price is consolidating between resistance at 1.1267 and support at 1.1171. Also, we've got a "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1103 - 1.1075. If we see a pullback from this area, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement in the direction of the last high.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the Moving Averages. The 89 Moving Average has acted as support, so bulls are likely going to get resistance on the 34 Moving Average in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this line happens, bears will have a chance to reach the closest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"double_top"_pattern_1301

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-BOTTOM" STOPPED BEARS
08:13 29.05.2017

The last upward trend has been broken, so the price meet with support at 1.2755, which led to forming a "V-Bottom" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance at 1.2913. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.2755 - 1.2705.

The price faced support at 1.2755, so we've got a "V-Bottom". In this case, we're likely going to have another upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2887 - 1.2905, which could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2755 - 1.2705.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_"v_bottom"_stopped_bears_1302

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "TWEEZERS"
13:00 29.05.2017

There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we've got a bullish "Tweezers", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the current correction is likely going to be continued.

We've got a bullish "Tweezers" at the last local low. Also, there's a "Shooting Star" on the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, the 89 Moving Average is likely going to act as support shortly. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"tweezers"_1303

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLS GOING TO TEST MA
13:03 29.05.2017

We've got a "Hammer" at the last local low, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average in the coming hours. However, if a pullback from this line arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to test the nearest resistance.

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, but we've got a bullish "Harami", which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance, which could be a departure point for another bearish price movement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bulls_going_to_test_ma_1304

 

[riki143]

CHF/JPY REVERSED FROM RESISTANCE ZONE
16:18 29.05.2017

CHF/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 113.00
CHF/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone surrounding the key resistance level 115.00, which has been steadily reversing all upward impulse waves from last December, as can be seen from the daily CHF/JPY chart below. The resistance zone near the resistance level 115.00 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

Given the clear triple bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, CHF/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the next support level 113.00 (which reversed earlier correction (2)).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/chf_jpy_reversed_from_resistance_zone_1305

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 0.7050
16:20 29.05.2017

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7050
Next buy target - 0.7130.
NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7050 (top of wave 4, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.7050 was preceded by the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate impulse wave (C) from the start of February, as can be seen below.

If the pair closes today above resistance level 0.7050 - NZD/USD can then be expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7130.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_reached_buy_target_0.7050_1306

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO FALLING INTO THE CLOUD
04:59 30.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1110, 1.1050; resistance – 1.1190, 1.1210.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.1110/00; SL — 1.1080; TP1 — 1.1190; TP2 – 1.1210.
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling lines; the prices are on the strong support in the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_euro_falling_into_the_cloud_1313

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE GOING LOWER
05:01 30.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370; resistance – 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7420; SL — 0.7440; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling lines; the prices are under the Cloud and bounced from Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_going_lower_1314

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 30
06:09 30.05.2017

Growing concerns over Greek bailout, early elections in Italy and comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi about the need to maintain the bank’s extraordinary amount of monetary policy support. The ECB has long argued that even with accelerating economic growth, inflation is far from sustainable. To return and stabilize inflation rate close to the bank’s coveted target of 2% an extraordinary amount of monetary policy support is needed. German press report released overnight stated that Greece may opt out of its next bailout payment if country’s officials fail to strike a debt relief deal. Last week, eurozone financial ministers failed to agree with the IMF on Greek debt relief or to give Athens some new loans. They agreed to discuss the following issue at their upcoming meeting in June. The comments from the former prime minister of Italy Matteo Renzi in favor of holding the legislative elections at the same time with Germany have also pressured the euro.

The single currency slid to 1.1130 due to all these headwind factors. It may drop lower towards 1.1250 and 1.1100 levels. The EUR will be under pressure unless it manages to break 1.1190. The market will be focused today on German inflation data for May, US CB consumer confidence report and US inflation for April to define a further direction of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Sterling dropped after a specific opinion poll showed May’s Conservative Party leading the Corbyn’s Labour Party by just five points. Investors were spooked by the fact May’s promise of strong and stable government might be in jeopardy after the Manchester terror attack. The bearish phase in GBP/USD technical outlook is still intact despite the yesterday’s modest rebound from Friday’s low at 1.2775 to 1.2850. In Tokyo session, the pound lost its steam and slipped below 1.2820. If today’s economic releases out of the US are weak, the pound might regain some strength.

USD/JPY moved lower to 110.92 in the Asian session. The economic data out of Japan was a mixed bag with neutral jobless rate report, poor household consumption estimate, and upbeat retail sales figures. The quotes may drop lower towards 110.50 ahead of the solid support at 110.20. In case of a rebound, the pair may rise above 112 – 112.50 levels.

Aussie dropped to 0.7415 ahead of its major release on the day – building permits that beat market expectations. Afterwards, there was a modest upsurge towards 0.7430. The immediate outlook for AUD/USD is still neutral despite the existing bias for a probe of lower levels at 0.7400, 0.7380.

Loonie suffered some losses this week mainly due to falling oil prices. USD/CAD rose above 1.3475 in Tokyo morning. The pair has room for a further extension towards 1.3500. We will get current account data, raw material price index and industrial product price index out of Canada later today.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_30_1316

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: LOONIE CHOOSES THE WAY
06:38 30.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 1,3505 SL 1,346 TP1 1,359 TP2 1,364.

On the USD/CAD daily chart, there is an attack on the diagonal support in the form of the upper border of the previous downward trading channel. If the Bulls manage to resist the Bears' attack, the risks for implementation of the inverted pattern 5-0 will increase. In contrast, if bears manage to test the aforementioned support, they will be able to implement the Wolfe Wave pattern.

On the hourly chart, USD/CAD is moving within the upward trading channel. Bulls might try to restore the trend once the "Head and shoulders" pattern is realized. You may consider opening the long position on the breakout of the resistance at 1.3505.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_loonie_chooses_the_way_1317

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: BEARS REGAIN THEIR STRENGTH
06:43 30.05.2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears try to return quotes to the borders of the downward channel. If they succeed, the risks for the restoration of the downward trading channel will increase. In contrast, the rebound from the diagonal support may result in the development of consolidation.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is a struggle for an important level of 0.7425. If bears wrestle the bulls down, the Australian dollar will move lower towards 0.7365 (target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern). The Bulls' win may result in the return of quotes to the resistance at 0.774.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_bears_regain_their_strength_1318

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "HIGH WAVE"
12:48 30.05.2017

The price has reached the lower “Window”, so we’ve got a “High Wave”, but confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the “Window” is likely going to act as support once again in the short term.

There’s a bullish “Engulfing” pattern at the last low. However, we’ve got a bearish “Harami” on the 34 Moving Average, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"high_wave"_1322

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "TOWER" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
12:52 30.05.2017

Resistance by the middle of the last huge black candle is still on the table. Also, we’ve got a “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the pair is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average which could be a departure point for another decline.

The upper “Window” is acting as resistance, so there’s a bearish “Harami” pattern, which has weak confirmation. Therefore, the nearest support is likely going to be tested again. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_"tower"_pushing_price_higher_1323

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PUSHED PRICE LOWER
13:10 30.05.2017

The last "Double Top" pattern has been confirmed, so the price got support at 1.1103, which led to forming a "V-Bottom", which pushed the price towards resistance at 1.1204. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1171 - 1.1204.

The price faced support at 1.1103, so we've got a "V-Bottom". Bulls tried to break the 89 Moving Average, but they failed, so bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.1139 - 1.1103. However, if we see a pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on the 55 Moving Average as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"double_top"_pushed_price_lower_1324

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BEARS BROKE TREND
13:15 30.05.2017

The pair faced support at 1.2755, so there's a "Double Bottom", which has been confirmed. Nevertheless, bulls couldn't break resistance at 1.2887, which means there's an option to have another decline towards the next support at 1.2816 - 1.2774. If a pullback from these levels happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average.

We've got a "V-Bottom", so the price is consolidating along the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the market is likely going to decline in the direction of support at 1.2816 - 1.2793. However, if we have a pullback from this area, there'll be a green light for another test of the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bears_broke_trend_1325

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD BROKE SUPPORT LEVEL 1.0550
16:43 30.05.2017
AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0550
Next sell target - 1.0450
AUD/NZD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.0550 (former resistance level from January). The breakout of the support level 1.0550 was preceded by the breakout of support zone lying between the support level 1.6500 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse wave from January. Both of these breakouts accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3.

AUD/NZD is expected to fall toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0450 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active minor impulse wave 3).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_nzd_broke_support_level_1.0550_1328

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
16:44 30.05.2017

AUD/CAD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.0100
AUD/CAD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the key support level 1.0000, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse wave (1) from the start of January, as can be seen below. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the (c)-wave of the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the start of May.

Given the strength of the support level 1.0000, AUD/CAD can be expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0100.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_cad_reversed_from_support_zone_1329

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 31
06:04 31.05.2017

The British pound fell sharply with a YouGov/Times poll showing the ruling Conservatives could lose 20 seats and their majority in parliament at the coming June election. GBP/USD immediately dropped to 1.2800 from circa 1.2860. At the present moment, the pair is hovering around 1.2808 level. The recent decline is lacking momentum, so the pound may move higher towards the resistances at 1.2845, 1.2890.

The dollar weakened against the safe-haven yen amid European political turmoil overnight. In Tokyo morning, we had preliminary industrial production print for April. The data indicated the best growth since April of 2011. For the yen, the following release wasn’t a reason to gain more strength. So, USD/JPY edged up t0 110.95. There is a soled resistance at 112.50 (the horizontal border of Kumo cloud on the daily timeframe).

The US Dollar Index Futures fell to 97.15 overnight. US Treasury yields missed some points Tuesday after the Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that she is content to hike in June, but if soft inflation data persist, she will reassess the appropriate path of monetary policy. The US PCE released yesterday was in line with market expectations. It didn’t show any lift in underlying pace of inflation despite the tightening of the labor market. There will more Fed officials speaking as we approach the FOMC’s June meeting. Robert Kaplan is due to speak in New York on Wednesday. As to the US economic data, pay closer attention to the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Beige Book.

Aussie dipped lower in Tokyo session with missing results for local bank’s retail sales estimate (official data will be released tomorrow). Additional headwind for AUD – falling iron ore futures in China.

EUR/USD is trading lower at 1.1165 from yesterday’s high at 1.1205. Yesterday we got the release of German inflation data that fell short of market expectations. A report that ECB policymakers might upgrade their economic risk assessment at the upcoming meeting kept the possibility of a change in forward guidance despite Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday. As downward momentum clearly vanished, we still observe a weak undertone to the current price action and would continue to hold the same view unless the single currency rises above 1.1190.

USD/CAD was a bit lower in the session. Now it is around 1.3450. Today’s focus will on the Canadian GDP figures coming at 3:30 pm MT time.

Oil futures skipped a few points sliding down from $52.35 to $ 51.90 in the Asian session as raising output from Libya added to concerns about increasing US production that make OPEC-led output cut deal inefficient. According to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, the country production will rise to 800, 000 barrels. This would boost Libya’s exports and keep oil prices under pressure.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_31_1338