Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 7/8 MM LEVEL
10:59 18.05.2017

Bulls have gone through 7/8 MM Level, but the price came back to this line. So, if we see the market below 7/8 in the coming hours, there'll be an opportunity to have an impulse in wave (i). In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday bearish target.

There's a pullback from 7/8 MM Level, so wave (c) of [y] may have been formed. Also, we've got a downward impulse in wave i, so bears are likely going to deliver another impulse in wave iii of (i) soon.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_pullback_from_7_8_mm_level_1105

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "EVENING STAR" AT THE LAST HIGH
12:37 18.05.2017

There's an "Evening Star", so the lower "Window" is likely going to act as support. However, bulls will probably try to test the last high once again firstly.

We've got a "High Wave" at the local low, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, we could have an intraday upward price movement. At the same time, if any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"evening_star"_at_the_last_high_1106

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARS STILL IN THE GAME
12:40 18.05.2017

There isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means the nearest support level is likely going to be tested once again. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the Moving Averages.

We've got an "Inverted Hammer", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the upper "Window" is likely going to act as resistance in the coming hours. If so, we could have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bears_still_in_the_game_1107

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: AUSSIE BOUNCED FROM SSB
05:12 19.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7450.
Trade recommendations:
Buy — 0.7430; SL — 0.7410; TP1 — 0.7470; TP2 — 0.7500.
Sell — 0.7400; SL — 0.7420; TP1 — 0.7340; TP2 — 0.7310.
Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and horizontal Senkou Span B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_aussie_bounced_from_ssb_1119

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: SSB IS UNDER ATTACK
05:14 19.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 111.00, 110.15; resistance – 111.70.
Trade recommendations:
Sell — 111.70; SL — 111.90; TP1 — 111.00; TP2 — 110.15.
Buy — 111.20; SL — 111.00; TP1 — 111.70.
Reason: neutral Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B have a same value; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are on Senkou Span B.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_ssb_is_under_attack__1120[URL="http://"][/URL]

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 19
05:48 19.05.2017

Strong economic indicators from the US lifted the dollar overnight. US initial for unemployment claims fell to 232K vs estimate of 240K. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index for May came much higher at 38.8 vs previous 18.5. The Political news also helped to send the dollar higher. The former FBI director James Comey in his testimony claimed that he had not been pressured for political purposes to close an investigation. It seems that Mr. Trump would be off the hook unless the Special Counsel investigations uncover some evidence of a collision between his election campaign and Russian entities.
In the course of the Asian session, the USD surrendered some of its earlier gains. We got some of the geopolitical news from Asian region: a second US carrier is being moved in close to North Korea for exercises; China intercepted a US Air Force plane over the yellow Sea.
USD/JPY slipped to 111.40 in the Asian session amid geopolitical tensions near the Korean peninsula. Further USD losses are not ruled out until it manages to hit 111.90. The solid support can be found at around 110.20.
EUR/USD ticked higher to 1.1115 in Tokyo morning. The single currency is getting some support from an emerging view that ECB might remove its current monetary policy stimulus (start gradually winding down its QE program). Bundesbank President Jens Weidman noted that political risks diminished following the euro-pleasant outcome of UK deal. Tonight, traders should focus on three speeches from several ECB officials. They might give us some details on whether ECB is ready to wind down its balance sheet.
Aussie posted some modest gains against USD. AUD/USD rose to 0.3230 in the Asian session. The recent AUD’s upsurge has room to extend higher to 0.7480. Until the solid support at 0.6970 is still intact. We would remain bearish on USD.
USD/CAD is trading sideways within a range of 1.3570 – 1.3667. It skipped a few point in today’s session. At the present moment, prices are hovering around 1.3590 level. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian inflation and retail sales figures. Brent and WTI futures are a bit higher ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled for next Thursday. The oil producing countries will discuss extension of the output cut deal.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_19_1121

 

[riki143]

GOLD: BEARS CAME UP WITH SHARK
06:11 19.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY $1265 SL $1245 TP $1320.
On the daily chart of gold, the bulls make desperate attempts to return to the borders of the rising trading channel. If they succeed, it will lead to the continuation of the rally. A signal will be a breakout of the upper boundary of the triangle. In contrast, a failure of the quotes to leave the borders of the downward trading channel will be a signal of the weakness of the buyers.

On the hourly chart of gold, the "Shark" pattern has been formed. Its transformation into 5-0 implies a price rise towards $1255 per ounce, followed by a downfall towards $1233. A signal for sales could be a breakout of the support at $1245.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold:_bears_came_up_with_shark_1122

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BEARS HOLD THE LINE
06:13 19.05.2017

Recommendations:
SELL 1,297 SL 1,3025 TP1 1,286 TP2 1,278,
SELL 1,299 SL 1,3035 TP1 1,286 TP2 1,278.
On the GBP/USD daily chart, quotes are moving within the borders of the upward trading channel. A break of its lower border might lead to the return of the pound to the previous consolidation range of 1,277-1,286. In contrast, the update of the May high will allow the bulls to fulfill 161.8% target of the AB = CD pattern.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a transformation of the daughter "Shark" pattern into 5-0. If the bears manage to hold the resistances at 1.297 and 1.299, the subsequent breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel may lead to the realization of parent "Shark" pattern.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bears_hold_the_line_1123

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PUSHING PRICE HIGHER
06:44 19.05.2017

The price faced support at 1.1066, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the next resistance at 1.1152 - 1.1171. However, if a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of support at 1.1103 - 1.1066.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1081 - 1.1075 in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to reach resistance at 1.1152 - 1.1171.

more:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"v_bottom"_pushing_price_higher_1124

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST NEXT RESISTANCE
06:46 19.05.2017

The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the price a little bit higher. Under this circumstances, we should keep an eye on resistance at 1.3023 - 1.3057 as the next bullish target. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we could have a downward correction towards support at 1.2945 - 1.2913.

Bulls found support at 1.2883, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, bears are likely going to get support on the 89 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_bulls_going_to_test_next_resistance_1125

 

[riki143]

US DOLLAR: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22-26
11:09 19.05.2017

US dollar had the worst week in 9 months. The greenback was hit hard by the political turmoil in the United States. The hype was caused by Donald Trump's firing of former FBI director James Comey, talk that he pressed Comey to stop investigating his former national security chief, and his campaign's alleged ties with Russia. There are concerns not only that the President may be impeached, but also that the fiscal stimulus he promised will be unlikely anytime soon.
We can now clearly see that the US dollar index recoiled down from the previous support and now resistance line in the 99.50 area. It seems like the index has formed a triple top with the neckline at 99.15 and is vulnerable to a decline to 94.70. Daily moving averages turned to the downside. DXY is trading below 50% Fibonacci of 2016-2017 advance. The next Fibo level lies at 96.40. A weekly close below the 100-week MA at 97.65 will be a very bearish sign. Resistance is at 98.65 and 99.20.

In the coming days pay attention to the FOMC May meeting minutes on Wednesday and core durable goods together with preliminary Q1 GDP on Friday. The Federal Reserve is still widely expected to raise interest rates in June after a rather optimistic May statement. However, as next month’s rate hike is already significantly priced in, so we don’t see how it can provide much strength to the US currency.
The problems of Trump administration should remain in the center of the market’s attention. In addition, analysts warn that risks associated with North Korea have increased and advise to prepare for high volatility in the short-term.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/us_dollar:_outlook_for_may_22_26_1130

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: 8/8 MM LEVEL GOING TO ACT AS RESISTANCE
12:10 19.05.2017

The price is still rising, so bulls are likely going to test 8/8 MM Level in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish wave (i). In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

We've just got a new local high. Previously, the price couldn't fixate under 6/8 MM Level. Therefore, wave v of (c) is likely going to be continued towards 8/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave i of (i).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_8_8_mm_level_going_to_act_as_resistance_1131

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH PARTY
12:51 19.05.2017

The lower "Window" has acted as support, which led to a new local high. Considering the last "Hammer", bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance level, which could be a departure point for a downward correction.

We've got some bullish patterns such a "High Wave" and a "Hammer" at the last low. So, there's an opportunity to have the market even higher in the short term. However, if any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, bears will probably try to deliver a correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_party_1133

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "INVERTED HAMMER" AT THE LAST LOW
12:53 19.05.2017

There's a "Tweezers" pattern at the local high, but the last bullish "Hammer" is still on the table. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the Moving Averages in the coming hours

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" at the last low, which has been confirmed enough. Also, there's a bearish "Tweezers", so bears are likely going to test the nearest support level during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls are going to deliver a new high.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_"inverted_hammer"_at_the_last_low_1134

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD RISING INSIDE IMPULSE WAVES (III) AND C
14:25 19.05.2017

EUR/USD rising inside impulse waves (iii) and C
Next buy target - 1.1260
EUR/USD continues to rise inside the minor impulse (iii), which earlier reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.1100 and the upper trendline of the recently broken daily up channel from the start of this year (acting as support after it was broken earlier this month).

If the pair closes today near the current levels it will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing. EUR/USD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii) and C toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1260 (forecast price for the completion of the active wave C).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd_rising_inside_impulse_waves_(iii)_and_c_1135

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY REVERSED FROM SUPPORT ZONE
14:27 19.05.2017

CAD/JPY reversed from support zone

Next buy target - 83.70

CAD/JPY recently revered up with the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Hammer from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 80.60 and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the impulse wave (3) from the end of April.

Given the clear bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator - CAD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 83.70. Strong support remains at 80.60.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/cad_jpy_reversed_from_support_zone_1136

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 23 - 26
09:25 19.05.2017

The political turmoil that gripped the White House this week resulted in the weakening of the USD against its major counterparts, such as the British pound. US President Donald Trump was accused of pressuring ex-FBI director James Comey to drop the investigation into ties between Russia and former security adviser, Michael Flynn. This was regarded as a serious, impeachable offense – an obstruction of justice. The latest development is circulation of Comey’s testimony in which former FBI director confirmed that he hadn’t been pressured for political purpose. This has lifted pressure from the US dollar, but only partially. In its turn, GBP was supported by the numerous economic data releases and actively tested 1.30.

On Tuesday, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. British inflation figures continue moving upwards: CPI rose by 2.7% in April. The BoE is ready to tolerate inflation at around 3%, a higher rate may make the central bank to raise its interest rate. On Wednesday, traders will wait for the FOMC meeting minutes’ release, though it shouldn’t bring any great market fluctuations. Towards the end of the week, we will be focused on the second estimate of GDP figures and preliminary business investment gauge both coming out of the UK on Thursday. On Friday, keep an eye on the US preliminary Q1 GDP figures.

The technical outlook for GBP/USD currency pair is neutral with some bullish bias. Most likely, the pair will be trading choppily within the range between 1.2850 and 1.3070 in the upcoming days. Stochastic indicates a room for the pound’s extension towards the upper border of consolidation range or higher, towards 1.3150 (38.2% Fibo of the post-Brexit decline). On the downside, there is a support at 1.2750 and 1.2710 which previously served as a very important resistance line.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_may_23___26_1126

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22-26
16:24 19.05.2017

USD/CAD slumped to 1.3545 in the past week due to rising oil prices and weaker USD. WTI and Brent oil futures rose after the Saudi Arabia and Russia have committed to extend production cut agreement. The political turmoil in Washington that could potentially end with Trump’s impeachment weighted in the USD depreciation against its major peers.

Next week the main focus will be on the Bank of Canada’s rate statement which is due on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to remain its rate on hold despite the soaring prices at Canadian house market. Household debt is poised to reach record levels as continuously low rate whet appetite for credit and inflated a bubble in real estate market. Canadian CPI figures picked up in April, but not enough for the central bank to raise its interest rate. An extremely dovish tone of the BoC’s policymakers will definitely hurt the CAD. The loonie might recoup its losses on May 25 following the OPEC meeting where more details on the extension of production cut agreement will be announced. On the USD front, pay special attention to what FOMC members’ chorus will tell you. A number of Fed’s policymakers will be speaking in the first half of the week. On Friday, traders will be waiting for the preliminary release of GDP figures and a monthly update of core durable goods orders. If headlines beat market expectation, USD might gain a strong momentum.

Technically, USD/CAD may slide further towards the solid support at 1.3480, or lower towards 1.2242 (100-day MA intersecting lower border of the rising trading channel). On the upside, there is a strong resistance at 1.3795 that might prevent USD from rising higher.

more:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_outlook_for_may_22_26_1137

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 23 - 26
09:27 19.05.2017

USD/JPY fell to 110.20 in the course of the past week. The pair was hit by continuing troubles of Trump administration. Nervous investors switched to the safe-haven yen after media reported that Trump obstructed justice by pressuring former FBI director James Comey to end investigation into ties between Russia and the former US security advisor Michael Flynn. Lawyers regarded Trump’s actions as an impeachable offense. On the economic data front, Japanese Preliminary GDP improved to 0.5% vs forecasted 0.4%. US jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surpassed market expectations and helped USD recover its losses, but only partially. It’s clear that political factor will keep affecting the pair.

Let’s have a look at the upcoming events. We will receive Japan’s trade balance data on Monday. Flash Manufacturing PMI and CPI figures will be released on Wednesday and Friday respectively. US statistical entities will release housing market data, manufacturing figures, core durable goods orders and, most importantly, preliminary GDP. If Trump’s aides fail to improve the situation, the US dollar will remain under pressure next week and lose even more ground.

USD/JPY reversed to the downside from 100-week MA just above 113.00. This line will now act as resistance together with 100-day MA at 112.75. Support lies at the psychologically important level of 110 ahead of 108.60 (50-week MA). The pair may consolidate between 112.50 and 108.50 in the coming weeks. Increase in the market’s risk aversion can make the greenback test lower border of this range.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_outlook_for_may_23___26_1127

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLS TESTED DAILY RESISTANCE
05:14 22.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1120; resistance – 1.1230.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.1230; SL — 1.1250; TP1 — 1.1120; TP2 – 1.1080.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but Tenkan-sen is horizontal; expecting a bouncing from the daily resistance near 1.2330/50.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bulls_tested_daily_resistance_1166