Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 17
06:24 17.04.2017

Sleeping Forex – the Land of Nod…The market was too sleepy to start this week with major trading centers still closed for a holiday on Monday. Markets are braced for more geopolitical tensions over North Korea, after its failure to launch a ballistic missile on Sunday. US Vice President Mike Pence fasten his eyes upon the demilitarized border between North and South Korea, reiterating that the U.S. "era of strategic patience" with Kim-Jong-un was over.
The major focus of Tokyo session was Chinese economic data. China’s economy grew 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017, a shtik above consensus forecast of 6.8%, supported by a government generous infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market. Overall, a raft of the data failed to produce a notable effect as investors were somewhat cognizant of an upbeat print following a recent range of positive figures from China.
The yen extended its gains amid the escalation in geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY tumbled below 108.35 in the early hours of today’s session. The odds that quotes slide lower towards 108.00, 107.50 are quite high as the bearish phase is still intact.
The euro edged down to 1.0620 on the session. Ahead of the first round of French presidential elections scheduled for April 23, Le Pen is slowly fading with the rest of the front-runner generally unchanged. Macron, Fillon, and Melenchon are snapping on her heels striving to chase Marin out of her place as a leader in the pre-election race. EUR/USD has moved into consolidation phase trading between 1.0555 and 1.0700 levels.
Aussie spiked to 0.75990 on the strong headline in Chinese data. China’s demand for Australia’s exported industrial commodities such as iron ore was truly strong in recent months. The current rebound is to extend higher to 0.7615, 0.7630.
GBP/USD rose slightly above 1.2530. The British pound has scope to extend its gain to at least 1.2615.
USD/CAD slipped a few point in the Asian session thanks to weakening USD. Oil prices weren’t supportive. Brent oil futures fell to $55.40 from $55.80 on Monday on signs the expanding US oil production industry, undermining OPEC efforts to support prices and reduce oil glut.
The Turkish lira jumped to 3.6800 against the greenback after President Tayyip Erdogan snatched a victory in a referendum on Sunday that was organized in order to replace Turkey’s parliamentary system with the presidency and abolish the post of prime minister.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning-april17

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: MOVING AVERAGE WAITING FOR BEARS
06:34 17.04.2017

The price faced a support at 1.2506, so there’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward correction towards a resistance at 1.2595 – 1.2614.

The 34 Moving Average has acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high. The main bullish target is a resistance at 1.2573 – 1.2595.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbpusd_technical_april_17

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STILL PUSHING PRICE LOWER
06:29 17.04.2017

The main trend is still bearish. The price faced a support at 1.0600, so there’s a developing upward correction. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0571 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.0655 as an intraday bullish target.

The price is testing the downtrend, which is likely going to be broken in the coming hours. So, the main intraday target is a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0655.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd_technical_april_17

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: EURO'S PRECIPITOUS DOWNFALL
06:49 17.04.2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes fell to the lowest level since November 2016. The previously set targets on short positions have been fulfilled. A successful test of 114.56 will increase the odds of fulfilling the target 88.6% in the Bat pattern. It is located near 113.3.

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. In this situation, the best trading strategies would be selling on growth or opening short positions on the breakouts of supports. The nearest resistances can be found at 115.5, 115.7 and 116.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/precipitous-downfall

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS A BIT CRAMPED ON THE LEDGE
06:52 17.04.2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the realization of "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3 continues. If quotes go beyond the consolidation range 1.237-1.258 it will be a signal for the opening positions. Resistances at 1.256-1.2575 corresponds to the upper boundary of the triangle. The breakout will increase the risk of continuation of the rally towards 1.273 and 1.277.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern can be formed. For this to happen, bears need to return quotes to 1.236. A successful test of the support at 1.2495 can lead to the development of consolidation followed by the move of quotes to downsides.

Recommendations:
SELL 1,2495 SL 1,255 TP 1,236,
BUY 1,2575 SL 1,252 TP 1,273.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/a-bit-cramped-on-the

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS A BIT CRAMPED ON THE LEDGE
06:52 17.04.2017

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the realization of "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3 continues. If quotes go beyond the consolidation range 1.237-1.258 it will be a signal for the opening positions. Resistances at 1.256-1.2575 corresponds to the upper boundary of the triangle. The breakout will increase the risk of continuation of the rally towards 1.273 and 1.277.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern can be formed. For this to happen, bears need to return quotes to 1.236. A successful test of the support at 1.2495 can lead to the development of consolidation followed by the move of quotes to downsides.

Recommendations:
SELL 1,2495 SL 1,255 TP 1,236,
BUY 1,2575 SL 1,252 TP 1,273.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/a-bit-cramped-on-the

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: EURO SUPPORTED BY SENKOU SPAN B
07:12 17.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0600; resistance – 1.0660, 1.0715.
Trade recommendations:
1. Buy — 1.0620; SL — 1.0600; TP1 — 1.0660; TP2 – 1.0715.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are in a same value; the prices are supported by bottom border of the Cloud.

[More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd-euro-supported-by-senkou-span-b

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: POUND IS UNDER STRONG RESISTANCE
07:17 17.04.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2530; resistance – 1.2550, 1.2590.
Trade recommendations:
1. Sell — 1.2550; SL — 1.2570; TP1 — 1.2430; TP2 — 1.2400.
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance; the local market is overbought.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbpusd-pound-is-under-strong-resistance

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PRICE GOING TO TEST "WINDOW" AGAIN
12:24 17.04.2017

The 34 Moving Average and the upper “Window” have acted as a resistance. However, there isn’t any bearish pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 89 & 144 Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

The last bearish “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed, but we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern. In this case, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” once again during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to find a lodgment under Moving Averages.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd_candle_april_17

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO PUSH PRICE EVEN LOWER
12:28 17.04.2017

The main trend is still bearish. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to get a resistance on the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another decline. So, we could have a new local low soon.

As you can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a local bullish “Hammer” at the last low. At the same time, if any bearish pattern arrives on the nearest resistance level in the coming hours, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usdjpy_candle_april_17

 

[riki143]

OIL MARKET OVERVIEW
12:31 17.04.2017

Crude oil edged down in a subdued trading on Monday as investors are still digesting expansion of the US crude oil production.
Benchmark Brent crude futures fell to $55.66 from its last-week high of $56.65. US West Texas intermediate crude futures were down to $52.95 after rising to $53.75 last week.
Baker Hughes officials said on Thursday that drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week of April 13. According to the recent information of the Energy Information Administration, the US crude oil production has grown to 9.4 million barrels per day, making the US the third largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia. Cost-cutting technological advancements helped US firms to become more competitive in areas previously reserved solely by such large producers as BP and Exxon Mobil. Field works in Arctic lands and waters make OPEC and non-OPEC signatory parties of the output cut deal more nervous about their market shares in the futures. Despite growing opposition from numerous environmental groups and President Obama’s 2016 ban on drilling in Artic waters, exploration in Alaska managed to reveal massive volumes of oil. The following wave of Artic development might influence the oil prices in the long-term future.
Political tensions in the Middle East (airstrikes in Syria), unplanned outages in Libya resulting in the shutdown of the Sharara oil field contributed to the recent uplift in oil prices. The possibility of extension of output cut deal was an additional tailwind for crude oil futures in the past two weeks.
Next month, OPEC countries and their allies will gather together to decide whether to extend an agreement curbing oil production or not. It will be a difficult decision to make as the signatory parties are facing a lose-lose situation. If they fail to agree on the deal extension, the oil market will be oversupplied and oil prices tumble. If they manage to strike a deal, prices will likely hit higher levels offering the US oil producing industry a scope for further expansion.
So, without the cut deal, the bull market is poised to fade away, with Libya reopening its oil field after outages, geopolitical tension easing and flourishing oil industry in the US.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil-market-overviewapril17

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARS READY FOR WAVE (III)
12:38 17.04.2017

We’ve got a flat pattern in wave (ii). Also, there’s a bearish impulse in wave (i). Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave (iii) in the short term. The main intraday target is -2/8 MM Level.

There’s a diagonal triangle in wave c of (ii), which led to form a wedge in wave i of (iii). Wave ii is likely going to end in the coming hours. So, if a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be time for wave iii of (iii).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eurusd_wave_april_17

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD RISING INSIDE IMPULSE WAVE 3 AND (3)
15:39 17.04.2017

NZD/USD rising inside impulse wave 3 and (3)
Next buy targets - 0.7070 and 0.7130
NZD/USD continues to rise sharply inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the strong support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.6900 (which also reversed the price sharply in December and March, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) of the primary impulse wave ③ from December.
NZD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7070 (top of the earlier b-wave) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.7130 (former monthly low from February).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzdusd1704

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD REVERSED FROM POWERFUL SUPPORT ZONE
15:41 17.04.2017

NZD/CAD reversed from powerful support zone
Next buy target - 0.9450
NZD/CAD recently revered up sharply from the powerful support zone lying between the support levels 0.9270 and 0.9220 (which also reversed the price sharply in December and January). This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active minor correction ii.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9450 (top of the previous minor corrective wave ii).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzdcad1704

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie chooses south
4/19/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the failure of the bulls to test the resistance at 0.7612 was a signal of their weakness. Quotes returned to support at 0.7523. If it is tested successfully, targets 127.2% and 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern will likely be implemented.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. Positions of big buyers are located near the 0.7515 and 0.7485 marks. If the levels are tested successfully, the sellers might count on the restoration of the downtrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13100

 

[riki143]

Gold prices took a break
4/19/2017

On the daily chart of gold, there is a desperate struggle for an important level $1,286. There is an intermediate 127.2% target in the AB = CD pattern. The bulls' win will lead to the continuation of the rally. In contrast, their defeat can lead to the development of the correction towards $1,260.

On the hourly chart of gold, buyers need to test the upper border of the ledge in the "Splash and Ledge" pattern ($1,292). The drop of quotes below the support at $1,278 per ounce will activate the expanding wedge pattern and can potentially lead to the pullback towards $1,260.

Recommendations: hold longs (BUY $1278 SL $1263 TP1 $1312 TP2 $1340),

BUY 1260 SL 1245 TP 1300.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13101

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, April 19th
4/19/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 3 438 ? + 1 055 ?
Closest resistance levels 108.80; 109.21; 109.49; 109.83
Closest support levels 108.05; 107.82; 107.63; 107.38
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 108.80 or from 108.65, with target points at 109.21 and 109.49
Alternative scenario Moving below 108.05 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 107.82 and 107.63


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 13 ? + 1 072 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3437; 1.3484; 1.3548; 1.3624
Closest support levels 1.3405; 1.3376; 1.3335; 1.3308
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3405, with the target points at 1.3376 and 1.3335
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3437 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3484 and 1.3548


AUD/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 0 + 9 ?
Closest resistance levels 0.7538; 0.7564; 0.7588; 0.7608
Closest support levels 0.7513; 0.7490; 0.7460; 0.7424
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7513 (or from 0.7538), with the target points at 0.7490 and 0.7460
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7538 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7564 and 0.7588

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13102

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bears faced with the wedge
4/20/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, there was a false breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel. The failure of the bears to keep quotes above the level of 1.3306 showed their weakness. If the bulls manage to test the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper border of the downward medium-term channel, there might be a continuation of the rally.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern was formed. A rollback of prices towards 23.8%, 38.2% and 50% levels of the 4-5 wave can be used for the opening of long positions. But first, the point 5 should be formed.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,3425 SL 1,337 TP 1,3575

BUY 1,3385 SL 1,333 TP 1,357.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13104

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls took a break
4/20/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there was a rebound of quotes from the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel with the subsequent breakout of the upper boundary of the short-term downward channel. Bulls managed to settle above the important level of 1.0695. As a result, an internal bar was formed. A breakout of its upper border near 1.0738 will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.0695 will allow bears to regain their control over the pair.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the exit of quotes from the triangle followed by the activation of the inverted Shark pattern increased the risks of implementation of 88.6% target (1.087). But first, the bulls need to break the resistance at 1.0738.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13103

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, April 20th
4/20/2017

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 66 285 ↑ + 210 054 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.0785; 1.0808; 1.0846; 1.0872
Closest support levels 1.0738; 1.0688; 1.0651; 1.0603
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0738 or from 1.0785, with target points at 1.0688 and 1.0651
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0785 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0808 and 1.0846




USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 65 ↑ + 105 ↑
Closest resistance levels 109.33; 109.58; 109.89; 110.27
Closest support levels 108.96; 108.45; 108.08; 107.86
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 108.96, with target points at 108.45 and 108.08
Alternative scenario Moving above 109.33 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 109.58 and 109.89


AUD/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 92 ↑ + 120 ↑
Closest resistance levels 0.7531; 0.7552; 0.7581; 0.7617
Closest support levels 0.7516; 0.7485; 0.7458; 0.7437
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7516, with the target points at 0.7485 and 0.7458
Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7531 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7552 and 0.7581

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13105