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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

EUR/USD: euro need to going higher
1/25/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0720; resistance – 1.0820.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0740; SL — 1.0720; TP1 — 1.0820/30; TP2 – 1.0900.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are finished the correction to Tenkan-sen.

01-eurusdh4(83).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12186
 
USD/JPY: trading in range
1/25/2017

Technical levels: support – 113.30; resistance – 114.00, 114.40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 113.70; SL — 113.50; TP1 — 114.40; TP2 — 115.20.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A is rising up; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen in a range of Tenkan and Kijun.

04-usdjpyh4(70).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12187
 
Financial market documentaries
1/25/2017

Such Hollywood masterpieces as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, “Big short” needn’t be advertised. Every amateur trader must have seen them at least once. In this article, we’ve decided to concentrate on the movies that offer educational rather than entertainment value. Underneath you will find the selection of documentary movies that deserves the attention of those who are always up to learn something new.

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The Ascent of Money: Boom and Bust

It’s a complete six-part television documentary about the financial history of the world starting from the Babylonian times and ending with comprehensive introductory to the 2008 global financial crisis. Someone would say that watching this hours-long video it’s a complete waste of time, that traders don’t need a degree and knowledge of the history of money to be successful. And we won’t contradict this argument; gut feelings trump everything, but the knowledge of how the finance world operates is a supplementary tool in market’s analyses. It could be your secret MIND weapon if you like. And we don’t force you to watch the whole thing, perish the thought, no. Just take you time to watch the parts you’re most interested in.

25 Million Pounds

It is a classic story of success of Nick Leeson, not very honest, but brilliant man. Nick started his career as Morgan Stanley clerk and ended up as a rogue trader who managed to bring down Barings, an old British bank due to his abilities to deceive and manipulate those around him. It’s also a story of those he deceived. They voluntarily entered into a dream Nick Leeson wove lured by the prospect of whaling sums of money and together they lost 830 mln pounds.

Floored-Documentary.jpg


Floored

The movie captures the very essence of trading for living as it describes the life story of the old-school floor traders struggling to survive in the world of computerized markets. The age of technology has changed traders’ living, working habits, but not their penchant for making money. Floored is a gripping, honest and inspiring documentary describing the lives of professional traders: their worries, concerns, struggles, fears of the unknown.

Wall Street Warriors

It is a documentary series, not just a movie. So, don’t accidently hook on them. Each episode reveals us the details of various Wall Street entrepreneurs. A documentary allows its viewers to take a walk in the shoes of Wall Street pedestrians, to see the intense competition that reigns in the financial world of market gurus.

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Inside Job

It’s probably the most comprehensive and informative documentaries on the 2008 housing and banking financial crisis. The film covers the US policy changes and banking practices that led to the outburst of the global financial crisis. The practical value of the movie: once you know how the crisis evolved and understand its causes, you will be able to recognize the early stages of subsequent crises and shield yourself from possible financial losses.

InsideJobScreen.jpg


Too big to fail

It’s a film focusing on the actions of the US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson prior to the 2008 financial meltdown. The US Treasury officials face with the need to bailout such gigantic financial institutions as Lehman Brothers and multinational insurance corporation AIG having recognized that their collapse may lead to the devastating crisis. The film seeks to justify the “too big to fail” theory necessitating the need for a bailout of big firms because of their great influence on the financial system. According to advocates of this theory, the too-big-to-fail firm needs to be provided with government support in times of the economic turbulences because the consequences of its collapse won’t outweigh the costs spent on its avoidance.

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More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12188
 
Long-term USD/JPY forecast from Mr. Yen
1/25/2017

According to Eisuke Sakakibara, a former top currency official at Japan’s Finance Ministry, commonly known as Mr. Yen, JPY may strengthen significantly against its American peer and reach 100 yens per dollar mark by the end of this year.

Sakakibara’s reasoning:

It is unlikely that Mr. Trump manages to fulfill his pledge of 4% annual economic growth for the US. The most realistic growth rate for the US is 2 – 2.5%.
As soon as uncertainty over Trump’s policies arises and the period of European elections starts, the demand for yen as for safe-haven currency will increase;
The Trump’s administration will need a weaker dollar to shore up exports and employment (but weaker not too weak; if USD becomes too weak, the Fed’s will need to meddle in);
It’s unlikely that the US economy will be robust enough to sustain multiple interest rate increases that were well priced in by the market participants;
Japan is not allowed to intervene in the forex exchange market to offset the demand for yen without the consent of Group of Seven nations. Last time the BOJ intervened was in March 2011 after earthquake and tsunami, and that intervention was coordinated with other G7 members.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12189
 
EUR/USD: local "Hanging Man"
1/25/2017

2501eurusdH4.png


We’ve got a bearish “Harami” pattern at the local high. Also, the middle of the last white candle is acting as a support, so there’s an “Engulfing” pattern. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the last high in the short term.

2501eurusdH1.png


There’s a “Hanging Man”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support level, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12190
 
USD/JPY: bears going to test "Window"
1/25/2017

2501usdjpyH4.png


The upper “Window” acted as a support once again, so we’ve got a “Piercing Line”. Also, the 13 Moving Average acted as a resistance. Considering the last “Harami” pattern, the pair is likely going to test the closest support in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

2501usdjpyH1.png


There’re a “Doji” and a “Three Black Crows”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the nearest support, which could stop bears.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12191
 
EUR/CAD reversed from resistance area
1/25/2017

EUR/CAD reversed from resistance area
Next sell target – 1.4000
EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 1.4260 (which reversed the earlier minor correction 2 with the Dark Cloud Cover in December), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the earlier downward impulse from November. The downward reversal from this resistance area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji.

EUR/CAD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.4000 (former top of the earlier minor correction (a) from the start of this month). Strong resistance remains at the aforementioned resistance level 1.4260.

EURCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-25_1549_PM_(1_day)(1).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12192
 
CAD/CHF rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
1/25/2017

CAD/CHF rising inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next buy target - 0.7700
CAD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier- when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7500 (which also stopped the previous minor correction 2 in December, as can be seen below), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from November.

The upward reversal form the aforementioned support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star. CAD/CHF is expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7700 (top of the previous wave (b)).

CADCHF_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jan-25_1550_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12193
 
EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to start
1/25/2017

Image20170125175730001.png


4/8 MM Level is acting as a resistance. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave . At the same time, if 4/8 turns out to be broken, then bulls will be free to move on.

Image20170125175730002.png


As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2. Also, we’ve got a small bearish impulse in wave (i). Therefore, there’s a chance to have another bearish impulse in wave (iii) of in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12194
 
AUD/USD: bulls are trying to regain control over the market
1/26/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears failed to keep the quotes below important support located at 0,754 (61.8% of the last descending XC wave). "Bulls" are trying to regain their control over the market. If they manage to update the January high, prices will move higher towards the resistance lines locates at 0.7645 and 0.771. There are 78.6% and 88.6% targets of the "Shark" inverted pattern.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_05.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, having fulfilled the target 88.6% in the "Bat" pattern, bulls started their attack. Breakouts of the resistance lines at 0.7586 and 0.7595 can lead to the restoration of the uptrend.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_20.png


Recommendation: BUY 0,7595 SL 0,754 TP 0,771.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12200
 
Gold: bulls showed their weakness
1/26/2017

On the daily chart of gold, a double top has been formed. It blocked the path of bulls to the north. To restore the uptrend quotes should rise above the resistance located at $1,205 per ounce, and then update the January highs. If bears manage to break the diagonal support and go out of the descending trading channel, there will be a correction towards $1,174.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_32.png


On the hourly chart of gold, a successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel will signal us that bears remain control over the market.

Screenshot_2017_01_26_08_24_45.png


Recommendations:

SELL $1195 SL $1204 TP $1175,

BUY $1220 SL $1210 TP $1255.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12201
 
Morning brief for January 26
1/26/2017

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes spiked to 2.50 overnight as risk aversion was ebbed. The US dollar refused to follow its usual pattern: instead of rising from higher Treasury yields, it weakened against its major peers.

The euro edged up to 1.0760. Today we will receive some domestic data releases from Spain and Germany. Also, there will be Eurogroup meetings gathering to discuss various financial issues.

The pound extended its gains and rose to 1.2655 on the Asian session. The pound trades like a currency that was beaten up so much that it can easily slide down. The heightened inflation rate trimmed the producers’ profit, as raw material prices have risen significantly. It may lead to the slowdown in the real wage growth rate and be reflected in consumption sentiments. Many believe that present bullish momentum in GBP/USD is not long-lasting. Let’s say that at the present moment the pound snatches at a chance striving to rise higher on the relative weakness of the US dollar.

The movement of AUD/USD is a bit atavistic. Unlike other currencies, Aussie weakened against the dollar and fell to 0.7570. At the start of the year, the Australian dollar gained mainly on the improvement of the global risk sentiment, bull commodity market. Yesterday, we got Australian CPI report indicating a rather slow growth of inflation rates. Aussie’s recent weakness might allow the Reserve Bank of Australia not to recourse to further easing measures next meeting.

USD/CAD continues its downward rally. The currency pair has already slumped to 1.3065. According to Nomura bank projection, USD/CAD is likely to end the first quarter at around 1.2800. Rising oil prices and improved domestic data should support the currency in near term.

Brent oil futures topped to $55.52 overnight. Gold continued a selloff and slipped to $1198.45 per ounce.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12202
 
EUR/USD: euro is on Tenkan’s support
1/26/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0740; resistance – 1.0770, 1.0820.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0740; SL — 1.0720; TP1 — 1.0820/30; TP2 – 1.0900.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all the lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen.

01-eurusdh4(84).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12203
 
AUD/USD: market is under resistance
1/26/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7550/60; resistance – 0.7610.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7660.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A; a weak dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are fixed on Tenkan’s support; a market is under a strong resistance on daily timeframe.

03-audusdh4(72).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12204
 
EUR/USD: flat in the "Triangle"
1/26/2017

26-1-2017-EUR-H4.png


The price is still consolidating under a resistance at 1.0795, so we’ve got a “Pennant” here. In this case, the pair is likely going to continued trading in a range of this pattern. Meanwhile, bears will probably try to reach the nearest support at 1.0745 – 1.0719, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

26-1-2017-EUR-H1.png


There’s a possible “Triangle” pattern, so the market is likely going to achieve a support at 1.0745 – 1.0728 shortly. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement towards a resistance at 1.0795 – 1.0815.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12205
 
GBP/USD: bulls going higher
1/26/2017

26-1-2017-GBP-H4.png


The price faced a resistance at 1.2672, so bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2619 in the short term. At the same time, if we have a pullback from this level, there’ll be a chance to have another upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2703 – 1.2726.

26-1-2017-GBP-H1.png


The pair is moving up towards the uptrend. Also, we’ve got a resistance at 1.2672, so the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2619. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2672 – 1.2703.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12206
 
Key option levels for Thursday, January 26th
1/26/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(114).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 39 470 ? + 18 295 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0762; 1.0791; 1.0812; 1.0844
Closest support levels 1.0733; 1.0710; 1.0671; 1.0617
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0733, with target points at 1.0710 and 1.0671
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0762 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0791 and 1.0812

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(101).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 2 665 ? + 4 924 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2658; 1.2677; 1.2709; 1.2732
Closest support levels 1.2618; 1.2596; 1.2557; 1.2530
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long GBP/USD above 1.2658, with target points at 1.2677 and 1.2709
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2618 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2596 and 1.2557

USD/CAD

USDCAD(96).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 857 ? + 660 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3116; 1.3153; 1.3205; 1.3271
Closest support levels 1.3070; 1.3048; 1.3028; 1.2994
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long USD/CAD above 1.3116, with the target points at 1.3153 and 1.3205
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3070 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3048 and 1.3028

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12207
 
EUR/USD: "Doji" on the Moving Average
1/26/2017

2601eurusdH4.png


We’ve got a bearish “Harami” and a “High Wave” at the local maximum. Also, the middle of the last huge white candle is acting as a support. In this case, bears are likely going to test the nearest support level and the 34 Moving Average. If we’ve got a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

2601eurusdH1.png


As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’re an “Engulfing” and a “Doji” at the last low. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the closest resistance during the day. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve the next resistance shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12210
 
USD/JPY: "Window" could act as resistance
1/26/2017

2601usdjpyH4.png


The upper “Window” acted as a support twice. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the middle of the last huge white candle, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

2601usdjpyH1.png


There’s a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. The price is approaching the upper “Window”, which could act as a resistance. If so, there’ll be a chance to have a local bearish correction in the short term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12211
 
cEUR/USD: wave (iii) is on the way
1/26/2017

Image20170126162024001.png


We’ve got a couple of pullbacks from 4/8 MM Level, so wave 2 was likely ended. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave in the short term. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level.

Image20170126162024001.png


+1/8 MM Level acted as a resistance, which has stopped the last bullish impulse in wave [c] of 2. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish impulse in wave (iii) of , so we should keep an eye on 5/8 MM Level as a possible short-term goal.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12212
 
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