Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7400
9/7/2016

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7400
Next buy target - 0.7500
NZD/USD continues to rise sharply – following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 0.7400 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January.

The breakout of the aforementioned resistance zone greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the end of May. NZD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7500.

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[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" points to a possible bearish correction
9/7/2016

There’s a “Hammer” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. However, we’ve got a “Harami” at the last high, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support line. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Harami”, a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low. Under this circumstances, bulls are likely going to achieve the nearest “Window” in the short term.

The pair has been rising since a “Tweezers” formed at the last low. At the same time, we’ve got a “Doji”, a “Shooting Star” and a “Tweezers” at the local highs, so bears are likely going to test the 21 Moving Average during the day.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10374

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, September 7th
9/7/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 102 ? + 138 807 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1268/78; 1.1295; 1.1323; 1.1361
Closest support levels 1.1236; 1.1214; 1.1182; 1.1141
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1236, with target points at 1.1214 and 1.1182
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1268 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.1295 and 1.1323


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 1 275 ? + 1 096 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3448; 1.3469; 1.3491; 1.3523
Closest support levels 1.3371; 1.3335; 1.3292; 1.3246
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short GBP/USD below 1.3371, with target points at 1.3335 and 1.3292
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3448 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3469 and 1.3491


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 4 240 ? + 2 668 ?
Closest resistance levels 102.20(32?); 102.54; 102.85; 103.25
Closest support levels 101.55 (critical); 101.25; 100.86; 100.42
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 102.20, with target points at 102.54 and 102.85
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.55 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.25 and 100.86


EUR JPY GBP

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10375]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10375

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to reach "Window"
9/7/2016

There’s a bullish “Doji” at the local low, but its confirmation isn’t enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window”, but if we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new low. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Dark Cloud” pattern did such a good job, so bears are likely going to move on.

The pair is declining, but we’ve got a “High Wave” at the last low. So, the price is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. If we have a pullback from this line, another downward movement becomes possible.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10376

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation inside "Triangle"
9/7/2016

The wave count has been changed. We’ve got a new high, so the last downward price movement turns out to be a zigzag in wave [w]. So, the price is likely going to test 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave [y] of D.

The price has been rising since a zigzag in wave (b) was formed. There’s a possible ending of wave iv, so bulls are likely going to deliver wave v of (c) shortly. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10377

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for September 8
9/7/2016

US dollar kept suffering after American ISM services PMI fell by 4.1 pints to 6-1/2-year low of 51.4 in August. The release reduced the prospects of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike on September 21 meeting. The futures market is now pricing only 15% odds of this month’s rate hike.

EUR/USD: German industrial production unexpectedly fell in July by 1.5%. All eyes on Thursday will be on the ECB meeting (11:45 GMT) and Mario Draghi’s press conference (12:30 GMT). The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rate unchanged, but may extend QE program or adjust its rules to ease a perceived scarcity of bonds available to buy. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the ECB to make these steps before the year-end. The reason to expect some action from the ECB is low inflation and Brexit, which poses negative risks for the European economy. EUR/USD ran into resistance in 1.1280 area (previous support and now resistance line, 100-week MA). The lack of action from the ECB will make the pair rise to 1.1360. Support is at 1.1200, 1.1170 and 1.1150.

GBP/USD: Despite strong manufacturing PMI released last week, British manufacturing production came in at -0.9%, worse that the forecast of -0.4%. The nation’s industrial production showed better dynamics rising by 0.1%. The Bank of England’s Governor Carney said that the economy is a bit stronger that the BOE forecasted, but underlined that all elements of stimulus can be increased and it is proposed to do so if necessary. GBP/USD returned below 1.3400 and we will likely see more downside. The main support lies at 1.3300, return below this level will open the way down to 1.3225.

USD/JPY: There was a report from the Sankei newspaper that the Bank of Japan policymakers are divided ahead of the central bank's next meeting on September 20-21. This rumors decrease the possibility of monetary stimulus from the BOJ. Japan will release current account and final Q2 GDP early on Thursday. USD/JPY looks vulnerable for further declines. The target is at 100.75.

AUD/USD: Australian GDP growth turned out to be lower than expected – 0.5% vs. the forecast of 0.6%, while the precious growth was revised down to 1%. On Thursday the nation will release trade balance figures (deficit is expected to narrow). Also watch the publication of China’s trade balance – it usually has a big impact on the market’s risk sentiment. Resistance lies at 0.7700 and 0.7755. Remember that the pair failed to overcome the latter in August. Support is at 0.7650 and 0.7600.

USD/CAD: The Bank of Canada left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, but accompanied its decision with a dovish statement highlighting downside risks for economic growth. Canada’s Ivey PMI missed expectations. USD/CAD recovered from support in the 1.2825 area and may strengthen to 1.2925. Watch oil inventories data from the US on Thursday as Canada’s a big oil exporter.

EUR JPY AUD G

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[riki143]

EUR/USD & September's ECB Meeting: Is the time for sellers?
9/8/2016

Today at 11:45 GMT we'll have the ECB interest rate decision, where it's expected to leave unchanged the rates on the zero level. At 12:30 GMT, Mario Draghi will speak during a press conference and analysts think that he'll stay on its overall tone (dovish), but there are no certainties about what will happen with the QE program. In one scenario, the central bank could expand it and that should be announced during today's meeting, of course, if Draghi wants it.

The technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart ahead of ECB meeting is bullish, as the pair gained momentum around the 200 SMA zone, following a rebound that it performed during last week and earlier this week too. A strong resistance is seen at the 1.1254 level, where a breakout should happen to test the 1.1339 level. In the very dovish-scenario, if EUR/USD manages to break the support zone of 1.1141, then the next target would be the 1.1045 price level.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10379

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on
9/8/2016

The market is consolidating under the closest resistance at 1.1270. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1220 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have another bullish movement towards the next resistance at 1.1282 – 1.1324.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is moving in a flat’s range between a resistance at 1.1270 and a support by the 34 Moving Average. In this case, it’s likely to see an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.1262 – 1.1270 during the day. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to get a support on the 55 Moving Average.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10382

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" gets in the way of bulls
9/8/2016

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, so the price reached a support at 1.3302. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.3277 – 1.3247 in the short term. Considering the previously formed “Double Bottom” pattern, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.3440 later on.

The last consolidation under a resistance at 1.3471 was finally ended by yesterday’s bearish rally. However, the price faced a support at 1.3316, so we’ve got an intraday correction in progress. Also, there’s a local “V-Bottom” pattern, so bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.3423 – 1.3444 during the day. If a pullback from these levels arrives, there’ll be a chance to have another decline towards a support at 1.3287 – 1.3251.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10383

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, September 8th
9/8/2016


EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 122 624 ? - 65 041 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1266; 1.1285; 1.1316; 1.1357
Closest support levels 1.1232; 1.1213; 1.1182; 1.1142
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1266, with target points at 1.1285 and 1.1316
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1232 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1213 and 1.1182


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 3 452 ? + 3 327 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3360; 1.3382; 1.3415; 1.3457
Closest support levels 1.3323/06; 1.3278; 1.3239; 1.3195
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short GBP/USD below 1.3323, with target points at 1.3306 and 1.3278
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3360 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 1.3382 and 1.3415


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 2 235 ? + 2 208 ?
Closest resistance levels 101.84(99?); 102.26; 102.66; 103.14
Closest support levels 101.52; 101.28; 100.91; 100.46
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 101.84, with target points at 102.26 and 102.66
Alternative scenario Moving below 101.52 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 101.28 and 100.91


USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 861 ? + 137 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2908; 1.2937; 1.2997
Closest support levels 1.2862; 1.2809 (?)
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.2908, with the target points at 1.2937 and 1.2997
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2862 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2809
EUR JPY GBP CAD

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10384

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance zone
9/8/2016

GBP/AUD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.7000
GBP/AUD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.7650 (which has been reversing the price from July), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the end of June. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the (b)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 4.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall down further to the next sell target at the round support level 1.7000 (target price calculated for the completion of the active (b)-wave). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 1.7650.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10388

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave
9/8/2016

AUD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave
Next buy target - 1.0000
AUD/CAD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9800 (which also previously reversed the wave 2 with the daily Morning Star in August, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CAD charts below), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse wave 1 from May.

AUD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (C) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0000. Strong support remains at the aforementioned support level 0.9800.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10390

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" waiting for bulls
9/8/2016

There’s a local bullish trend on the four-hour chart. Also, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, which has been confirmed. The last candles are bullish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, which makes possible an achievement of the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, today’s candle are white, but it’s likely to see any bearish pattern on the nearest “Window”.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and “Engulfing” at the local low, which led to the current upward price movement. Moreover, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance level.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10391

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new low
9/8/2016

There’s a bearish “Harami” at the local high, but its confirmation isn’t enough. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window” once again. If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Hammer” remains unconfirmed, so bears are likely going to move on.

The price has been falling down since an “Evening star” was formed at the last high. Also, there’s a strong resistance by the nearest “Window” and the Moving Averages. We’ve got an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation is a quite weak. Therefore, it’s likely to see another test of the “Window”. If there’s a pullback from it, bears are likely going to deliver a new low.

>More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10392

 

[riki143]

What do analysts recommend ahead of the ECB?
9/8/2016

Morgan Stanley: Bullish view on the euro. So far the euro zone’s economy hasn’t been hit too hard by Brexit. ECB will ease policy in December.

Barclays: The ECB will adopt a wait and see approach. The outlook for EUR/USD is neutral.

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi: The ECB will extend QE only in October or December. EUR/USD will gain.

RBS: ECB will extend QE to September 2017.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: The ECB will extend QE, but negative impact on the euro will be limited.

Societe Generale: The danger is that the ECB does nothing at the meeting. This won’t lead to a surge in the euro, but it will be supportive.

EUR

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10393

 

[riki143]

ECB: main moments of Mario Draghi’s press conference
9/8/2016

- The euro zone’s economy is resilient, but the risks to the economic growth are to the downside.

- The ECB will continue its monetary stimulus measures.

- Economic growth and inflation forecasts are slightly revised to the downside, but not enough to make the ECB rate.

- Draghi acknowledged that the ECB won’t be able to keep buying 80 billion euro of bonds a month, so the central bank is studying the options for smooth implementation of asset purchase program.

- The ECB realized the constraints in its QE program, but Draghi underlined the ECB’s determination to reach its targets. The ECB President, however, didn’t provide any details of how it plans to do so.

- Without monetary stimulus from the ECB, the euro area would be severely hit by the economic shocks.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10394

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave i going to begin
9/8/2016

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10395/Image20160908163204001.png

There’s a possible ending of wave [x] in a form of a zigzag. So, it’s likely that bears are going to deliver wave [y] of D soon. However, a confirmation is required, so we should wait until the price finds a lodgement under 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If so, the next intraday target will be 1/8 MM Level.

[IMG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10395/Image20160908163204002.png

As we can see on the one-hour chart, bulls haven’t broken 7/8 MM Level, which points to a possible ending of the current upward impulse in wave (c) of [x]. Therefore, it’s likely to have a bearish wave i, which is going to reach 4/8 MM Level.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10395

 

[riki143]

Recent economic developments for AUD
9/8/2016

After Australian Q2 GDP release had been published, it became clear that expectations of economists were almost fully justified: the 0.5% quarterly expansion was slightly off the 0.6% pace predicted, on top of this, the year-over-year expansion was at the 4-year high of 3.3%. Bearish reaction of speculators was predefined since the RBA is still expected to be dovish in the forthcoming future.

Although Australia showed 100 quarters without a recession, domestic demand in Western Australia fell by 2.5%, households carry on massive debt loads and the economic picture may deteriorate, because the mining boom is over.

According to the recent data of the Australian bureau of Statistics released earlier today, after seasonal adjustments, the trade deficit of Australia narrowed to $2.41 billion. In addition, the value of exports increased by 3% to $26.214 billion, thanks to a hefty contribution from non-monetary gold exports.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7700 on the news. Strong national currency is believed to be a primary cause of concerns for Australian central bank. A possible reduction of the interest rates can be viewed as a very effective pill for the sluggish Australian economy. Therefore, despite Glenn Stevens’s decision to leave the RBA’s interest rates unchanged, we may expect the opposite move from the RBA in the months ahead, according to some economic experts. September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was the last for Stevens as its governor: from now on he will be replaced by the deputy governor Philip Lowe.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10396

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for September 9
9/8/2016

USD: US unemployment claims were a bit better – lower – than expected (259K vs. 264K). FOMC Member Rosengren will speak at 11:45 GMT on Friday.

EUR: The European Central Bank left the key interest rates unchanged and said that expects them to stay at current or lower levels for an extended period of time. The regulator didn’t extend QE program beyond March 2017, but promised to do so if necessary. The ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank realizes that there are constrains to its current QE program and that the matter is being studied, but gave no details about that. The euro area’s economic growth and inflation forecasts were revised to the downside, but very slightly. The single currency rose as analysts expected more dovishness from Draghi. EUR/USD rose above 1.1300. Next target on the upside lies at 1.1360. Support is at 1.1230, 1.1200 and 1.1150.

GBP: There were no important releases in the UK on Thursday. GBP/USD made another step down approaching support at 1.3300. Decline below this level will open the way down to 1.3235/00. Resistance is at 1.3375.

JPY: Japan’s final GDP growth for Q2 was revised a bit to the upside, though the nat5ion’s current account surplus narrowed. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said the central bank would not rule out deepening negative interest rates or any other easing steps needed to achieve its price target, but gave few fresh clues on whether the BOJ will expand monetary stimulus this month. USD/JPY was little changed in 101.70 area. Increase above 101.90 will let to a correction to 102.35. Decline below 101.50 will open the way down to 101.00 and potentially 100.70.

AUD: Aussie surged as Australia’s trade deficit narrowed and China's imports unexpectedly rose in August. AUD/USD was testing levels above 0.7700. The ability of Australia dollar to continue gains depends on whether the pair manages to close above this mark. Next resistance is at 0.7770, while support is at 0.7650.

EUR JPY AUD GBP

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10397

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD & Employment Change: Is the next target placed at 1.30 handle?
9/9/2016

In Canada, at 12:30 GMT we'll have the Employment Change's release and the analysts are expecting a change from -31.2K to 15.0K and with that scenario, CAD pairs should see volatility during the event. During Thursday, BoC's Lane said that the job market is still recovering and that could give us an idea of what will happen with the jobs data in Canada for coming months. Let's see if the indicator shows an improvement for August.

Our technical analysis for USD/CAD at H4 chart is calling for a rebound continuation towards the resistance zone of 1.3003, where the 200 SMA is located. Also, there is a bullish trend line placed from August 18th session and is acting as dynamic support. If we see a positive number during today's release, then the pair should break that trend line and it can find support once again at the 1.2777 level, while in the another scenario, a consolidation above the 1.3003 zone should push higher to the pair towards the 1.3133 level on a first degree.

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10398