HiWayFX - Market News

[HiWayFX]

Obama Vows New War in the Middle East: How to Trade It
Thursday, September 11, 2014 - 06:45
The US president today vowed to chase down and neutralise terrorists of the Islamic State insurgency that have captured large parts of Syria and Iraq, marking the first time since the US enters major active military operations since the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The announcement comes at a crossroads for the oil market which has seen a steep downturn in recent months, largely due to oversupply in the US market. What we are now seeing is the UK Brent Oil CFD at a pivotal support level not seen since May 2013.

Firstly, this pivotal support in the zone of 98.50 is so important because it has served as such for over 3 years, or since January 2011. Only once has the UK Brent CFD broken under this level, only to recover within days. Secondly, there are multiple geopolitical factors that are intersecting to inject extra volatility into the European oil market, namely the war against IS terrorists and also the political tension between Russia (an oil producing state) and Europe (an oil consumer).

It is almost a given that tensions over Iraqi and Syrian oil will erupt during the upcoming war against IS. IS uses oil to finance it's operations and it can just as well use this against Western forces by sabotaging oil refineries or setting oil fields ablaze.

All of these factors would suggest a tighter oil market and higher prices in UK Brent.

Weekly chart of UK Brent Oil CFD
The Trade
The chart above shows weekly candles of the UK Brent CFD market, with a clear support level of 98.50. The one caveat of this analysis is that this support is considered to be quite a wide zone, anywhere between 97 and up to 99. But in order to identify and exploit major market trends, one must allow greater flexibility in spotting and trading them.

So watching the news for any scares to the oil market will be of great benefit in catching any pops in Brent. We would expect this trade to be wrong if prices made a daily close below 96.50 but would like to see targets of 100 initially, followed by 102 further along.

The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

 

[HiWayFX]

How You Can Profit from Economic Decoupling - Read more forex news and analysis on www.hiwayfx.com/market-news

 

[HiWayFX]

Hello guys, you can have a look on our Market News

The Fed Blinks: Dollar Finally Corrects While Stocks Fall
The Dollar has been on a tear for the past 5 months, each month making higher highs. Our call for a lower EUR/USD and a higher USD/JPY has seen quite generous outcomes but nothing is forever in the forex markets. We believe that now is the time for a correction in the EUR/USD downtrend, as well as in the USD/JPY uptrend. The CFD market is additionally showing signs of exhaustion as the S&P 500 Index trades at new lows for a second month.

Read more details on https://www.hiwayfx.com/en-uk/marke...tocks-fall

 

[HiWayFX]

How to Trade EUR/USD into November

The US Federal Reserve has done as was widely expected and ended it's extraordinary bond buying program, it also upgraded it's view of the US employment situation.

The huge rally in the US Dollar since this summer was sparked by market expectations of the Fed tapering off extraordinary bond buying purchases due to an improving employment situation in the US. FOMC statements began hinting at moving an interest rate hike closer to the beginning of 2015.

Find out and read more on how to trade EUR/USD into November by following this link: https://www.hiwayfx.com/market-news/how-trade-eurusd-november

Thank You!

 

[HiWayFX]

Drop in US Treasury Yield Foretells a USD Pullback

The beginning of the new year has seen US 10-Year Treasury yields close under 2% for the first time since the summer of 2013. Market have been pricing in a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in 2015 for months now. Although we see the rate hike as forthcoming, and strength in the US Dollar to continue, short term signals indicate that the US Dollar will pull back, giving a chance for new longs to open positions.

Treasury Rates Tell the Future


Given the fact that the US 10-Year yield has been falling so swiftly in the last few weeks, and the fact that there has been little response from FX markets, there is likely to be a pullback in USD/JPY and a rise in EUR/USD.

We see USD/JPY falling to 117.10 or 116.80, which would be a good long entry to target 119.35 again. Pay close attention to the possible consolidation triangle forming. It has been a common pattern for USD/JPY to consolidate in an orderly triangle before breaking out to the upside.

Read more on our website

 

[HiWayFX]

After the Swiss National Bank removed the ceiling on the Swiss Franc, and lowered their interest rate to (negative) -0.75%, EUR/CHF crashed. The crash saw EUR/CHF fall 30% in a matter of seconds from the 1.20 floor to as low as 0.87.


Looking at the technical picture on EUR/CHF, HiWayFX analysts have christened a new technical pattern - the ‪deadworm.

 

[HiWayFX]

Don't Expect Easy Forex Trading in February.

There is a volatile mix of factors driving volatility in Forex markets this month, and without a good plan, retail Forex traders will be in for a painful surprise.

Central bank policies have roiled Forex markets, Greece is threatening markets with another crisis, and the Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise interest rates as the US economy grows faster than its peers.

Focus on the big picture and filter out the noise.

For more information please visit: My Webpage

 

[HiWayFX]

Why It's Time for a Pause in the US Dollar Trend?

News headlines come and go and Forex markets whip around with neck-breaking volatility, in a seemingly random fashion that only trading robots and algorithms can exploit.

We've seen this at its most during the month of February and wrote about the fact that trading in February was going to be difficult.

For further information please visit: My Webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

Why Markets are at Risk from a New Global Financial Crisis?

Just as we put the latest Greek debt drama behind us, HiWayFX brings to your attention another looming financial crisis which could be just as bad as the one from 2008.

This is what major financial firms from UBS to Goldman Sachs are warning of, due to major dislocation in world government bond markets and a 54% decline in the price of WTI Crude Oil in the span of 8 months.

Read more at My Webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

Parity is likely for EUR/USD following Wednesday Fed Meeting.

Even our forecasts at HiWayFX for the EURO have been conservative relative to the actual moves seen in recent months.
Our outlook was certainly for 1.07 sometime before the end of the second quarter, but apparently, the market has had other ideas by falling below 1.05 on Friday.

The ECB Has Lost Control.

The truth is, what is happening in the EUR/USD market smells like an out-of-control collapse and it will be a huge problem for the ECB..

For further information please visit: My Webpage.

 

[HiWayFX]

Will March FOMC Meeting signal the end to easy monetary policy in the US?

When Janet Yellen took over the reins of the Federal Reserve earlier in 2014, the markets were expecting to see the Fed continue with its dovish monetary policies.

In the course of the past few quarters, the dovish assumptions of Ms. Yellen however seemed to change however.

Go to My Webpage for further information about this article.

 

[HiWayFX]

Q2 2015 offers a lot of volatility and uncertainty for the currency markets.

Forex traders can expect to see a lot of volatility across the board heading into the second quarter of this year, April through June. The risks to the currency markets come with a mix of monetary policy uncertainty and of course political uncertainty as well. If you are unsure of the markets ahead, this article serves the purpose to enlighten the reader of the various risks that lie ahead in the next three months.

Read the full article from MyWebPage

 

[HiWayFX]

March NFP Numbers gives fodder for Bulls and Bears!

The March jobs numbers saw a disappointing print in the monthly employment change, one that missed forecasts by a huge margin.

Considering that the consensus was already lower, the miss in expectations has prompted many to weigh the US labor markets leading to clearly divided camps of bulls and bears.

For traders, it is often best to sieve through the noise and look at the actual facts.

Read the full article

 

[HiWayFX]

Yellen's statement keeps volatility alive late into Friday

Markets tend to slow down towards the latter part of Friday under usual circumstances. However, last Friday, 27th March was different.

In a week marked by speeches from various Fed members, the markets clearly and reasonably ignored the comments from Fed members, focusing on the main event, the statement from Fed Chair, Janet Yellen who was scheduled to speak at an event "The New Normal for Monetary Policy".

Read the full article.

 

[HiWayFX]

Monthly Technical Analysis of Major Currencies – April 2015

As the markets head into a new month in April, we take a look at what the long term charts tell us from a technical perspective and also what has happened in the past month, since our last month’s monthly technical analysis notes.

Read the full article.

 

[HiWayFX]

Dear clients,

We would like to inform you about changes in the trading schedule from the 1st of May 2015 until the 4th of May 2015 due to the Labor Day Holiday.

Please refer to the following updated trading schedule.

 

[HiWayFX]

Bill Gross Calls Another Top in Bonds, Predicts End of Low Rates.

Bond King Bill Gross is making another call that the 30 year-old US bond market bull run is coming to an end, and low rates will eventually rise. The trader has made these calls before, and the last one arguably lost him his job at PIMCO, since he called a top in bonds a few years ago betting that the Fed would tighten earlier than they actually did.

What It Means for Forex

Higher US interest rates (which is what would entail a “top” in the bond market) are supposed to translate into a higher US Dollar since the reward for holding USD goes up with as its base interest rate goes up.

Read more about this article.

 

[HiWayFX]

There Is Something Wrong with the Forex Market.

Volatility in the Forex market has spiked drastically since last December, and it has become particularly pronounced after the FOMC statement on 18 March which saw swings in EUR/USD to the up and down sides in excess of 200 pips, all in a matter of hours.


Read more about this article.

 

[HiWayFX]

British Pound stages a comeback on UK election mandate.

The British Pound which has been trading considerably weaker since mid-last year was poised to the downside heading into the UK elections that concluded last week on May 7th. Economists and analysts alike were unanimous in expecting to see a weaker Pound Sterling on the UK elections, attributing this to the fact that with the rise of a number of new parties, the probability of a clear victory to a single political party was unlikely and that the uncertainty post-election alliance talks would weigh in on the Pound.

The outcome of the 2015 UK General elections was totally different and one that probably had the lowest odds.

Read more for further information about this article.

 

[HiWayFX]

Bonds Are Going Crazy and How to Trade the Yen

Bond market volatility has dramatically spiked around the world, seeing German Bunds rally almost 5 basis points in the last weeks and a similar rally in US 10-Year Treasury Yields. There is also a suspicious jump in Japanese Yen shorts in the last Commitment of Traders report which could mean that smart money accounts are getting ready for a rise in USD/JPY.


Read more about this article.