GBPUSD Analysis and Forecast

[jackcm]

08 - 07 - 2013 Analysis

Market seems calm down before BoE Quarterly Inflation report and Mark Carney speaks at UK Parliament.

As we can see in daily chart, GBPUSD has been locked between SSMA 70-days and SMA 100-days. A move above SSMA or be low SMA may be signal of change in global sentiment.

On the upside, resistance could be found at 1.5392 (yesterday high) - 1.5434 (high Jul 25th) and if resistance 1.5434 is broken, GBPUSD may reach up to psychology level 1.55.

On the down side, support is first at psychology level 1.53, then 1.5242 (high Aug 1st) and I think 1.51 might be strong daily support.

 

[jackcm]

08 - 08 - 2013 Analysis

GBPUSD has got its momentum back since yesterday after announcement that BoE had adopted forward guidance and it was not going to increase Interest rate until employment rate fell below 7%.

Market was first bearish GPB, GBPUSD declined from 1.5300 to 1.5204 and then quickly got back to daily open 1.5347 and rallied up to 1.5530. This rally is also caused by weakness of USD.

It is now trading around psychology level 1.5500 and it seems hard to back to 1.5400 again. MACD and momentum has just been moving above average. Therefore, the bulls seem absolutely prevail.

On the upside, resistance: 1.5564 (low Jun 18th) - 1.5615 (low Jun 14th) - 1.568 (low Jun 17th). On the downside, support: 1.5390 (low yesterday) - 1.5300 (psychology level) - 1.5200 (psychology level)

In my opinion, 1.5564 might be reached soon. It is because uptrend is still strong; weekly pivot is 1.5267, hence R1: 1.5432 - R2: 1.5578; and GBPUSD is now above R1. Therefore, it may be easy for it to break 1.5564.

 

[jackcm]

10.10.13 - Analysis and Forecast

This pair has been the worst performer since last week, plummeted from high 1.62 and it's now trading at 1.593. However, it still consolidate on upward channel as we can see. This is caused by both GBP (overbought) and USD (oversold). Therefore, uptrend still prevails and it just needs buyers back again.

Today, strong resistance is at 1.6000/20 and support is at 1.5900/86, GBPUSD may keep declining since market momentum is still too weak, Stoch oversold and Momentum below average. We should wait until the bottom is confirmed if we want to buy.

 

[jackcm]

10.11.13 - Analysis and Forecast

Though GBPUSD rebounds from yesterday low 1.5914 and it's currently trading at 1.5990, I still remain bearish this pair. Looking at 4H chart, we see GBPUSD is moving on downward channel and testing SMA-20, Stoch shows overbought condition

Daily resistance is around 1.6000/25 and key support is 1.5900, a break below that level could lead to further down move but I think GBPUSD will be closed above 1.5900 today.

 

[jackcm]

10.14.2013 - Analysis and Forecast

This week, beside US debt-ceiling concern (deadline is Oct 17th), there will be UK data that also need to be paid attention to. GBP hasn't easily benefited from US political and financial uncertainty and indeed it has been one of the worst performers in recent weeks.

GBPUSD was closed above support 1.5900/25 after Friday and it's now testing resistance 1.6001 (last Friday high), it may extend to 1.6025 if 1.6001 is broken. Downside still prevails in short-term as we can in 4H chart, GBPUSD is moving on downward channel; however, it is protected by SSMA-90.

I'm still bearish this pair but UK data is very necessary to be watched for.

 

[jackcm]

10.17.2013 - Analysis and Forecast

GBPUSD is trying to protect its uptrend and perhaps it's almost done. We see that it crossed above support trend line, Stoch shows that GBPUSD has got momentum back, but MACD is still below average, that's why I see uptrend is still not confirmed yet.

Anyways, I expect USD will keep falling (until there are improvements in labor market) due to taper delay and UK is on way of recovery, therefore market may be still bullish this pair.

Resistance levels: 1.6196 - 1.6260 (Oct 1st) - 1.6300 (psychology).
Support levels: 1.6097 - 1.6040 - 1.6000 (psychology).