Fort Financial Services
Broker Representative
"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
23.10.2014
Fundamental analysis
We still observe a flat within the major pairs in the Forex market. The lower inflationary pressure in the world's largest economies caught by surprise traders and now the asset managers cannot identify the most "weak link." On October 8 Federal Reserve pointed to the dollar revaluation the US consumer price index negative impact and the investors rushed to close “longs” within the US dollar. However, as we see, traders cannot still find the dollar alternative and on this background we have recently seen a side tendency. The trading day did not bring important macroeconomic statistics. The United States pleased investors with positive release sales in the secondary market.
The sales rose by 2.4% in September that indicates the confident consumer demand. It is also necessary to emphasize the American stock market rapid growth - Apple reported the record profits for the 3rd quarter of this year that with the US positive macroeconomic statistics cheered bulls up to open “longs”. Against this positive background, the US dollar was able to strengthen against its major competitors.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro will be under the external information influence, first of all under the US inflation data. If the data shows the US price pressure growth, as, in general it is expected that will increase our confidence in the ECB and the Fed policy growth that will add pressure on the euro.
The EUR/USD has broken through the lower uptrend boundary of 1.2730 that means the three-week correction turn in the long term.
The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the pair consolidates first. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2600, 1.2500.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The US good statistics was one of the main pound weakening reason. The technical factors influenced the pound as well. The growth was caused by the strong resistance level where the pair pound/dollar is now.
The Bank of England last meeting minutes will be published where they discussed the monetary policy future.
The pair GBP/USD is waiting the fundamental data. We expect one of the two important levels break through: 1.6180 and 1.6030 amid these data.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.
There is weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We expect the level of 1.6030 break that will open the way to 1.5870.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The yen sales were caused by the price decrease on the Japan stock market where the Nikkei has lost about 2% .Then the technical factors and the US estate market sales strong data returned the pair growth - as a result the US dollar leveled the loss and got a slight "profit".
The Japanese economic data showed a further deficit growth. The pair USD/JPY intends to break the strong resistance level of 107.10 for the third time. The previous two strong resistance level of 107.35 tests were followed by the price rebound down.
The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.
Trading recommendations
After the trend line 107.10 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 107.60 is opened.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc retreated against the general dollar rise. The Switzerland trade balance data showed the $ 2.45 billion surplus. However, both exports (3.3%) and imports (7.4%) have fallen.
The pair USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9535 and stabilized near the daytime highs.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.
There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
23.10.2014
Fundamental analysis
We still observe a flat within the major pairs in the Forex market. The lower inflationary pressure in the world's largest economies caught by surprise traders and now the asset managers cannot identify the most "weak link." On October 8 Federal Reserve pointed to the dollar revaluation the US consumer price index negative impact and the investors rushed to close “longs” within the US dollar. However, as we see, traders cannot still find the dollar alternative and on this background we have recently seen a side tendency. The trading day did not bring important macroeconomic statistics. The United States pleased investors with positive release sales in the secondary market.
The sales rose by 2.4% in September that indicates the confident consumer demand. It is also necessary to emphasize the American stock market rapid growth - Apple reported the record profits for the 3rd quarter of this year that with the US positive macroeconomic statistics cheered bulls up to open “longs”. Against this positive background, the US dollar was able to strengthen against its major competitors.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The euro will be under the external information influence, first of all under the US inflation data. If the data shows the US price pressure growth, as, in general it is expected that will increase our confidence in the ECB and the Fed policy growth that will add pressure on the euro.
The EUR/USD has broken through the lower uptrend boundary of 1.2730 that means the three-week correction turn in the long term.
The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the pair consolidates first. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2600, 1.2500.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The US good statistics was one of the main pound weakening reason. The technical factors influenced the pound as well. The growth was caused by the strong resistance level where the pair pound/dollar is now.
The Bank of England last meeting minutes will be published where they discussed the monetary policy future.
The pair GBP/USD is waiting the fundamental data. We expect one of the two important levels break through: 1.6180 and 1.6030 amid these data.
The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.
There is weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.
Trading recommendations
We expect the level of 1.6030 break that will open the way to 1.5870.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The yen sales were caused by the price decrease on the Japan stock market where the Nikkei has lost about 2% .Then the technical factors and the US estate market sales strong data returned the pair growth - as a result the US dollar leveled the loss and got a slight "profit".
The Japanese economic data showed a further deficit growth. The pair USD/JPY intends to break the strong resistance level of 107.10 for the third time. The previous two strong resistance level of 107.35 tests were followed by the price rebound down.
The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.
The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.
Trading recommendations
After the trend line 107.10 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 107.60 is opened.
Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc retreated against the general dollar rise. The Switzerland trade balance data showed the $ 2.45 billion surplus. However, both exports (3.3%) and imports (7.4%) have fallen.
The pair USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9535 and stabilized near the daytime highs.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.
There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.
Trading recommendations
We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.