• The Forex, Binary Options Forum - welcomes you to our Community!

    DigitalCashPalace Forum is dedicated to discussions about Forex, Binary Options, commodities, stocks related.

    Please take a look around, and feel free to .

Forex Analysis

J

JamesThatcher

The Week Ahead 09th May 2022
The Week Ahead 09th May 2022.png

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

11th May 2022 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ


12th May 2022 19:00 GMT US MEX interest Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9TVg7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
 
J

JamesThatcher

United States Core CPI m/m May 11 2022
United States Core CPI mm May 11 2022.png

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com




I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.00
CPI (M/M) 0.20
CPI (Y/Y) 8.10



Today's trade plan

Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.

I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

CPI - Core (M?M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y


If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
J

JamesThatcher

Mexico MEX interest Rate May 12 2022
Mexico MEX interest Rate May 12 2022.png

What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




Historic deviations and their outcome

June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

MX Interest Rate Decision 2021-06-24 18:00:00.0

MX Interest Rate Decision 2021-06-24 18:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

MX Interest Rate Decision 2020-11-12 19:00:00.0

MX Interest Rate Decision 2020-11-12 19:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com




I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 7.00



Today's trade plan

I'll be looking to take a trade if they hike further than the expected 7.00% or a sell if they only hike to 6.75% or dont hike at all.

I'll be looking to bank around 800 pips if we get a trade



Tradable pairs

USDMXN


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
J

JamesThatcher

The Week Ahead 16th May 2022
The Week Ahead 16th May 2022.png


In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.


18th May 2022 02:30 GMT Australian WPI (Q/Q)

See the report history here

19th May 2022 02:30 GMT Australian Employment Change

See the report history here

19th May 2022 14:00 GMT (Approx) South African Interest Rate

See the report history here
 
S

Subduplicate

The study of analysing whether to trade a currency pair by buying, selling or waiting is known as forex analysis. Currencies are traded in pairs, with exchange rates determined by the rate of 1 currency compared to the other. Technical and fundamental analysis are two of the most common methods of analysis, and many traders combine the two.
 
J

JamesThatcher

Australia AU WPI (Q/Q) May 18 2022
Australia AU WPI (QQ) May 18 2022.png

What does the data mean to the market?

The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 18 2020 A nice +0.3 dev created a prolonged but significant move in AUD price action.
Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

WPI (Q/Q) 0.80



Today's trade plan

The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow move for maybe 15 pips on EURAUD.


Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
J

JamesThatcher

Australia Employment Change May 19 2022
Australia Employment Change May 19 2022.png

What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

AU Employment Change 2021-05-20 01:30:00.0

AU Employment Change 2021-05-20 01:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

AU Employment Change 2021-03-18 00:30:00.0

AU Employment Change 2021-03-18 00:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

AU Employment Change 2021-02-18 00:30:00.0

AU Employment Change 2021-02-18 00:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com




I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 30
Unemployment Rate 3.9



Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
J

JamesThatcher

South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late May 19 2022
South Africa ZAR IR exp 1920 m late May 19 2022.png

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 4.75



Today's trade plan

Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.75%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 5.00% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see an increase to 4.50.%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR.

We should bank some nice pips if this hit.





Tradable pairs

USDZAR
ZARJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
J

JamesThatcher

New Zealand Official Cash Rate May 25 2022
New Zealand Official Cash Rate May 25 2022.png

What does the data mean to the market?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

Check out the price action here:
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com




I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 2.00



Today's trade plan

Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 2.00%. I'll take a trade if we see a deviation of 0.25% either way from the forecast


Tradable pairs

EURNZD
NZDUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

From the News

Latest posts

New Threads

Top