Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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12 JUNE 2013: USD/JPY REBOUNDS AFTER STEEP FALL

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The Dollar steadied against the Yen on Wednesday, suffering its biggest drop in three years yesterday. USD/JPY trades at 96.44, sinking as low as 95.60 in the previous session. The 2.7 % fall marked the biggest one-day drop in the USD/JPY currency since May 2010. The Dollar continued to slip against the Euro at 1.3307. The Dollar index DXY steadied after slumping to a four-month low of 81.034. The weakened Australian Dollar gained 0.4% and trades 0.9469 to a USD.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) disappointed investors hoping for an extension in the maximum duration of its fixed-rate loans, similar to the European Central Bank (ECB) long term financing operation. Such extension would have been aimed at quelling the volatility in the bond market. The market expected such a move. When that did not happen, the Yen sellers had to liquidate short positions. Yen buying was strengthened by exporters shrinking purchases of the Dollar.

The volatility and tumult in the Japanese bond market have raised worries that it could undercut the Abe government and BOJ’s efforts of monetary easing. USD/JPY had, until the recent turnaround, fallen continuously from 80 to 103.65 Yen to a Dollar. The weaker Yen gave Japanese export a welcomed boost, but most of this advantage has been eaten by the stronger Yen experienced in June.

The US and European stock markets tumbled yesterday on nervousness over FED’s monetary easing exit strategy. Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell from 0.76 to 1.06 %. At the General Assembly of Facebook, CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, faced a barrage of questions about the stock price. Facebook’s shares have fallen 37% since its introduction. In Japan, the Nikkei index fell below 13.000 as the strong Yen dragged exporters down.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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13 JUNE 2013: ASIAN MARKET PLUNGES WITH STRONGER YEN

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The Dollar plunged to its lowest level in ten weeks against JPY at 94.81, while the Asian stock markets experienced one of its worst one day down falls. All the Asian markets ended in red territory with the Japanese Nikkei 500 index falling as much as 5.3 %. Tumbling Japanese shares accelerated the fall of the Dollar as Nikkei- investors continued to unwind earlier hedges against a weaker Yen. The Dollar has lost 8.6 % since hitting a four year high of 103,74 on May 22.

The latest developments demonstrate the gamble involved in Central Bank’s monetary easing. Investors have snapped up Japanese shares between mid-November and May, as a weaker Yen promised to fatten exporter’s overseas revenues. Now a stronger Yen threatens to do the opposite, leading to further sell-offs in the Nikkei. The tumults in Asia come on top of uncertainty about whether the US Federal Reserve (FED) will pare back its stimulus program buying bonds and treasury bills. Japanese bond selling is adding to the pressure on the currency.

The fall in Asian shares followed a weak session in New York. Dow Jones Industrial was down 0.84 % while the technology heavy Nasdaq lost 1.06. The Dollar lost 0.3 % against a basket of currencies, DXY, ending at 80.741 after falling below 80.651, a level not seen since February. The Dollar has lost 4 % since its three-year high on May 25th. Adjustments in overextended long USD positions rather than a changing perception of US growth and Fed outlook, seems to be behind the weaker Dollar.

Weakness in the Dollar saw the Euro climb to a near four-month high of 1.3370. Euro/USD trades now at 1.3356. It is difficult to explain the stronger Euro, the recession in the Euro zone taken into account. Recent polls show, however, that a majority of analysts believe that ECB will keep the interest rate at the present level. Optimists are also suggesting that the euro zone will return to modest growth later this year.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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14 JUNE 2013: ROBUST US-DATA TURNS MARKETS UP

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Robust US retail sales and a drop in the weekly jobless benefits claims had a positive impact on global stock markets yesterday and this morning. . Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.9 % recovering some of the sharp losses the last two weeks. This followed a strong session in New York. Dow Jones passed the 15 000 mark again, adding 1.21 %. The technology heavy Nasdaq index gained 1.32 %. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index rose 1.4 %. Also Chinese shares recovered.

Volatility is still high in the currency markets. Better than expected economic data calmed global markets,after the last few days bruising sell off. Investors remained, however, nervous ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve, FED, policy meeting on June the 18th-19th. The Dollar lost at one point more than 1% from early gains against the Yen, and stands at a four-month low against a basket of major currencies, DXY. USD/JPY is hovering below 95 at 94.92 Yen to a Dollar. Euro/USD is at 1.3349.

The positive data yesterday appeared to have brought some temporary relief to markets rocked by speculation on whether FED is going to taper its monetary easing. The strong rally in global equity markets over the last half year, has been driven by FED’s bond buying scheme. There is an open question as to how the stock markets would be affected by a discontinuation in monetary easing, which other central banks have also copied. Currencies are most likely going to continue to be volatile until stability returns to equities.

Yen short and Dollar long positions have been built up to excessive levels over the last few weeks, and have contributed to the volatility in USD/JPY. Selling of the Yen was overdone and it seems that the latest market turbulence might have filtered out much of that excess. USD/JPY at 95 seems to be reasonable for now. The British Pound Sterling, GBP, is gaining ground against the USD, trading above 1.57. Oil prices are up on US- growth expectations triggered by the latest data. US crude futures stand at 96.70 and Brent trades at USD 104.73 a barrel.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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17 JUNE 2013: DOLLAR LOSES MOMENTUM

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The Japanese Yen held near a two-month high against the Dollar and the Euro in early Asian trade Monday, amid market hysteria and confusion over when and how the US Federal Reserve (FED) will begin to scale down its massive stimulus program. USD/JPY opened at the same level as it ended in New York on Friday, where the Dollar bought 94.23 Yen. Since the opening, Yen has weakened to 94.77. EUR/USD trades steady at 1.3322 as French President Holland’s Socialist party asks for a weaker Euro.

The Dollar lost momentum during volatile sessions last week, which saw sharp moves in the Yen and emerging market currencies. Stronger retail sales and lower weekly jobless claims released last Thursday, helped the green back rise from months of lows. Negative consumer confidence figures published on Friday effected, however, USD negatively. The Dollar index, weighed against a basket of currencies, are at a four month low. Both Euro and GBP are at their strongest level against the Dollar since February.

Oil prices rallied to a two month high after Washington’s announcement that it would provide arms to Syrian rebel groups. New York Crude, NYMEX, trades at USD 97.63 a barrel and Brent is above 105. The Syrian crisis going to be at the top of the agenda when the G-8 meets today. The Syrian civil war is threatening the stability in neighboring Countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey, and challenges Israel’s security as well. The conflict threatens to develop into a regional Russia/US proxy war also directly involving Iran.

In a price analysis Barclay’s bank is forecasting crude oil prices to retrace to USD 111 a barrel, taking supply shortfalls as well as geopolitical tensions into consideration. The Bank estimates supply shortfalls from OPEC (Organization of Oil Producing Countries) to be 2 million barrels a day or equal to Germany’s oil imports. Libyan oil output has fallen below 1m barrels a day due to protests at oil fields and terminals. Nigeria’s output has fallen due to theft-related damage to pipelines.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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18 JUNE 2013: ASIAN SHARES SLIDE BEFORE FED MEETING

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

After a strong session in New York on Monday where Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq all gained, Asian shares slide, as investors are nervously waiting news from the US Federal Reserve meeting and Bernanke’s news conference on Wednesday. The Japanese Nikkei and the Asian Pacific MSCI-indexes fell as did Australian shares which lost 0.9 %. The currencies are relatively steady with the EUR/USD at 1.3354 and USD/JPY at 94.84.

Oil prices continue to trade higher due to tension in the Middle East. Brent crude stands at USD 105.57 a barrel. The G-8 meeting amongst the world’s strongest developed economies, started their meeting in Northern Ireland yesterday, seeing Russia increasingly isolated in their support to the Assad-regime in Syria. US and European leaders simultaneously launched talks on the world’s most ambitious free trade agreements.

Markets are looking for the FED to clarify its outlook on its massive stimulus program when the US central bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. FEDs aggressive bond-buying program, along with other central banks accommodating monetary policies to promote growth, have provided liquidity which have been invested into higher risk assets as shares. Even modest tapering in monetary policies might, therefore, have had direct and unforeseen impact on the stock rally seen the last half-year.

Uncertainty over FEDs thinking has recently weighed in on the Dollar which has plunged to a four-month low towards a basket of currencies. The Dollar’s fall against the Yen has primarily been linked to speculators and investors cutting down on their Yen short positions after the Bank of Japan last week did nothing to quell a highly volatile domestic bond market. The fall in the Yen was sparked by a sell-off in Nikkei shares which have fallen 20 % from their peak at the end of May.

It is expected that FED, after its Wednesday meeting, will stress its commitment to continued stimulus and that any tapering will not signal lightening liquidity. At the G-8 meeting the Euro zone came under pressure to press on with a banking union. Japan was urged to follow up on central bank stimulus with structural reforms to tackle its budget deficits.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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19 JUNE 2013: MARKETS WAIT FOR BERNANKE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Stocks led by General Electric grew higher on Wall Street yesterday, as markets eagerly wait for US Federal Reserve’s , FED, policy statement to be published later today. Both Dow Jones Industrial and the technology heavy Nasdaq added 0.91 and 0.87 % respectively on expectations that FED, for now, will maintain its aggressive bond buying program, which over the last half year has boosted stocks. Markets are gambling on continued monetary easing in spite of recent data pointing to an improvement in the US-economy.

FED Chairman Ben Bernanke recently stated that the bond buying would be wound down when the economy has proven stronger. FED has put a 6.5 % unemployment rate and an inflation rate below 2.5 % as benchmark targets. An improving US economy seems, at present, capable of growing without monetary easing, but FED has not yet decided on the final exit strategy. It is expected that a tapering of the bond buying will begin in September/October.

Japanese stocks followed the positive lead from New York, outperforming the rest of Asia. Nikkei rose 1.1 %, helped by a softer Yen. USD/JPY traded at 95.28 down from the 94.50 level seen over the last couple of days. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index eased 0.3 % led by a 1.3 % fall in mainland Chinese stocks. Hong Kong and South Koreas were also lower. The MSCI index has lost 8 % since May 22nd, when Bernanke indicated to Congress that a decision to wind down bond buying would come in the next few meetings.

The question for many investors is whether Bernanke will succeed in convincing markets that any tapering is conditional on incoming data opposed to the foregone conclusion: tapering is going to come regardless. The uncertainty has convinced most currency and equity investors to retreat to the sidelines. The Dollar has moved marginally over the last day. EUR/USD trades at 1.3390 after reaching close to a four-month peak at 1.3416 yesterday. Commodities, oil and gold are trading at steady levels.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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20 JUNE 2013: FED STRENGTHENS USD WHILE STOCKS PLUNGE

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The US Federal Reserve (FED) will start to taper its monetary easing program in the second half of 2013 ,and terminate the bond buying completely in the first half of 2014. That was Chairman Ben Bernanke’s message after FED’s meeting yesterday. A termination depends, however, on continued growth, controlled inflation and achievement of FED’s 6.5 % unemployment target. The US economy is moderately growing, but FED see increased downturn risks due to budget cuts, which have weakened growth. The low interest rate policies will continue.

Markets reacted by sending stocks down. Dow Jones Industrial fell 1.35 %. Nasdaq lost 1.12 %. The Asian indexes plunged on the news. The bond buying program has been the main driver behind this year’s stock rally. A termination invites uncertainty. The Asian-Pacific MSCI-index fell more than 3 %. The Japanese Nikkei was equally hard hit as were Australia, New Zealand and other Asian markets. The downturn in equity markets is most probably going to continue in Europe today.

FED’s conclusion and Bernanke’s comments don’t come as a big surprise. Over the last few weeks there has been continuous speculation as to when tapering would start. FED seems to be convinced that the US economy is on the right track, but keeps the door open for continued stimulus policies in the worst case scenario. This “exit” from monetary easing shall hardly calm nervous markets which usually overreact to news regarded as negative.

FED’s decision has strengthened the Dollar in relation to all currencies. EUR/USD has fallen from the 1.34 level to 1.326. Yen has also lost ground and trades at 96.28 Yen to a Dollar. USD/GDP, which lately has traded at around 1.57, plunged to 1.5448. The USD/AUD continues to fall, 0.9250, on new data confirming a slower Chinese growth. Oil prices are down. Brent crude trades at USD 104.69 a barrel, down one-and-a-half Dollars. Gold and commodity prices continue to lose ground.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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21 JUNE 2013: MARKET COLLAPSE FOLLOWING FED STATEMENT

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The collapse in global equity markets continue. FED’s statement on Wednesday to scale down economic stimulus and terminate the bond-buying program in 2014, has created panic and fear. The fear index reached the peak for the year. In New York the stock exchanges tumbled. The last two months profits were wiped out in two sessions. Dow Jones fell 2.34 % to 14.758 after the European markets were hard hit earlier in the day. In Asia, markets continue to fall dramatically.

Precious metals and developing countries’ currencies were especially hard hit. Gold prices fell more than 100 Dollars and reached levels unseen in years. Silver was even harder hit and fell 10% in two days trading below USD 20 an ounce. Oil prices quoted in USD fell 2.7 % partly as a result of a stronger Dollar. Brent crude has fallen four Dollars and trades at USD 102 a barrel. Other commodities such as copper, drive further down. Market sentiment is confused and bewildered in the wake of FED’s conditional statement.

FED’s program of bond-buying has fueled stock market gains since last autumn and created a strong rally taking indexes to new all-time highs. Investors have,for months, been buying on market dips, and limited stocks decline. It is a big question whether this pattern will continue. The money now leaving the equity market seems to be convinced that the past months rally has been artificially created mainly by FED, and consider whether the collapse represents a buying opportunity or a continued trend.

China’s higher funding Inter bank costs are adding to market’s nervousness in a situation where the Chinese economy is slowing. Chinese stocks dropped 2.8 %. An eventual end to the super-easy US monetary policy have raised concerns that a higher US interest rate will prompt a mass migration out of emerging markets. The Dollar has weakened somewhat against a basket of currencies after its big gains on Thursday. EUR/USD trades at 1.3229 and USD/JPY at 97.66.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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24 JUNE 2013: FED HAS INVESTORS RUNNING FOR COVER

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Equities and government bonds came under fresh pressure at the end of last week .This development continues this morning where Asian shares fell to a 9-and-a-half month low, as investors worried about China's economic and financial stability simultaneously try to adjust to the prospect of diminishing Federal Reserve support. The Asian Pacific MSCI-index slipped to its lowest level since last September, posting a drop of 4.5 % only last week. US indexes suffered its biggest weekly decline in one year.

Global markets are fragile with dramatic falls for securities with emerging markets hit especially hard. The US Federal Reserve’s (FED) statement on Wednesday of last week, highlights what little tolerance there is to a shift in policy. In addition to the steep fall in equities, US government bond prices suffered. Yield on 10-year Treasury rose 8 basis points to 2.5 %, the highest level seen since 2011. German Bond yield rose on Friday to 1.73 % after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that FED was preparing for a scale back – or “taper” – its monthly asset buying of USD 85 billion a month and terminate this program in the first half of 2014.

The latest rise in treasury yields added impetus to the Dollar which was the big winner last week. EUR/USD continues to fall and trades at 1.3109 in early Asian trade with USD/JPY at 97.66. In China, money mark rates remained volatile keeping investors in a jittery state about Chinese authorities intentions. The recent spike in market rates compounds fears of a sharper than expected slowdown in the Chinese economy. Chinese shares led by the banks continue their downward spiral.

Commodities, with precious metals in particular, were hardest hit by the market volatility. Gold returned to 2010 levels after dropping below USD 1300, trading at 1285. Gold is now more than 30 % below the nominal all-time high of USD 1921. Silver prices fell 8.5 % below USD 20 an ounce. The Euro lost 1.7 % in relation to dollar last week. Euro short positions were, however, aggressively cut, suggesting that traders expect a quick correction. The steep fall seen in the Australian Dollar, which, since March, has lost 17 % against the common currency, might also indicate a rebound.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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25 JUNE 2013: DOLLAR STRENGTHENS WITH SHARES FALLING

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Global stocks continued to fall steeply on Monday after the trading week started with new lack luster sessions in Asia. Shares declined heavily in Europe and Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.94% adding to the 2% fall last week. Materials, industrials and financial stocks led by Bank of America ended in deep red, negative territory.

The technology heavy Nasdaq declined 1.04%. Equity markets regained some ground in the last half of the session, but the onslaught on stocks seems to be by no way over. Most of the gains after the last half years stock rally have been wiped out after the US Federal Reserve, FED, last Wednesday announced an end to the FED bond buying program of USD 85 billion monthly.

This monetary easing program has given stock markets added liquidity and taken them to new record highs. Capital has been pumped into the more risky emerging markets, which also have seen successful bond issues by in weak economies as Rwanda and Honduras. FED’s announcement has created panic like reactions and led to a flow of capital out of emerging markets and big declines in their currencies.

The last four days developments have grossly strengthened the USD. The DXY-index, a basket of currencies weighed against the Dollar, is at its highest level since June last year. A more optimistic business outlook from Germany has kept EUR/USD steady above 1.31. A decline below 1.3072 will, however, imply a strong bearish signal.

USD/JPY has also kept steady over the last 24 hours trading just below 98 Yen to a Dollar. The Australian Dollar has recovered 0.5% from the 33 month low following the bad financial news from China yesterday morning. The Aussie Dollar is extremely volatile to any changes in China. Precious metals continue to be under strong pressure set for new lows. The same goes for oil in spite of the tense situation in the Middle East.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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26 JUNE 2013: US DATA LIFTS STOCKS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Strong manufacturing and housing data lifted the US equity markets after several losing sessions following the meeting in the Federal Reserve (FED) and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement last Wednesday. Global markets have since been in turmoil on the prospect of a tapering in the USD 85 billion monthly bond buying program, which have fed stocks with liquidity and created what many see as an artificial rally. Uncertainty as to whether monetary easing will continue, has in two weeks wiped out most of these gains.

The economic data presented yesterday gave strong arguments to those arguing that the US economy is back on the right track and the 6.5% unemployment target set by FED, is within reach. Realizing the heavy waves last week’s statement has created, FED representatives were, on Wednesday, eagerly playing down the likelihood for a quick end to monetary easing, stressing the many uncertainties and FED’s conditions for a termination.

These efforts were, to a certain degree, undermined by better than seven years housing figures. Greater demands for capital goods such as cars and aircrafts point in the same direction. The positive numbers had Dow Jones turn sharply up after four dismal losing sessions. Dow ended 0.65 % up at 14 754, still far from the benchmark 15 000. Nasdaq also gained ground and added 0.5 %. The European markets ended in positive territory after big losses since last week.

The Dollar is the big winner of the FED statement. It gained new ground after the housing data was published, but fell somewhat back. EUR/USD which started on a good note on 1.3235 dipped at a point below the resistance level on 1.3172 which represents the last 200 days moving average. A fall below that level will indicate that the EURO is in bullish territory. EURO fell as deep as 1.3162, but has since recovered well above 1301,72 to 1.3091.

The USD/JPY followed a similar trading pattern and stands 97.90. Australian Dollar rebounded strongly while the Chinese Central Bank’s tighter credit conditions towards private lenders conducting a freewheeling policy, sent new shivers through the Chinese stock markets. The losses were, at one point, 5.5 %, but turned back to a relatively modest 0,2 %. While the US economy seems to improve fundamentally, there are big question marks around the world’s second biggest economy . Oil and commodity prices have risen on the back of the new positive data in US.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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27 JUNE 2013: WEAKER US- GDP LEADS TO STOCK RALLY

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The stock rally in the US continued for a second day yesterday with all the three indexes in positive territory. Dow Jones Industrial jumped 1.02% and Nasdaq added 0.85% after GDP numbers for first quarter results were revised strongly down. Real GDP growth was 2.6 % and not the 3.4 % originally announced. The biggest revision was in consumption figures which had created strong turnaround expectations. When the market realized that these negative figures might lead to prolonged monetary easing, bad news suddenly turned into good.

The European stock market also demonstrated strength with all major indexes gaining ground with Paris the winner, jumping 2.09 % followed by Germany’s 1.66. Stocks in England and Scandinavia were among other winners. The Chairman of the European Central Bank, ECB, Mario Draghi’s, contributed to the good sentiment. In a statement he stressed that ECB will continue with its accommodating monetary policies. This was interpreted as ECB will continue to buy bonds in weaker EURO zone countries if needed.

Global markets saw precious metals fall to their lowest levels in 3 years. Gold plunged a new USD 43 to USD 1230 an ounce. Gold analysts predict that the 12000 mark set on the downside is, too, optimistic. A fall to USD 1000 seems more likely now. Silver is following the same pattern and fell yesterday from 19.80 to USD 18.65 an ounce. Oil prices are staying up relatively well with Brent crude trading above USD 101 a barrel.

The American Dollar has also been the winner during the last 24 hours trading. The DXY, a basket of currencies weighed against the Dollar, reached its highest level in 3 weeks. EUR/USD is under renewed pressure struggling to stay above the 130 level; after plunging through the critical 120 day moving average of 1.3062. The Euro shows all signs to have fallen in a bearish territory. USD/JPY trades steady at 97.80 after the fear for a banking crisis in China seems to be over for now.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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28 JUNE 2013: STOCK RALLY CONTINUES ON LUKEWARM GROWTH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Lower than expected consumer spending; only 9000 fewer unemployed applicants for benefits last week, point together to a more lukewarm growth in the United States. The numbers published today confirm the impression created by the downgrading yesterday, when US growth was from 3.4 % and adjusted to 2.6 % in the first quarter. Major banks as Berkley, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lowered onThurday their growth prognosis for 2013 substantially down to between 1.4 – 1.7 %. Optimistic forecasts have been as high as 3 %.

The weaker growth has given strong ammunition to those who don’t want to set any deadline for monetary easing, as suggested by Federal Reserve and Chairman Ben Bernanke two weeks ago. Their statements led to steep falls in global stock markets and eradicated earlier profit. The influential Chairman of the NewYork stock exchange, William Dudley, said on Thursday that attention should be paid to effects of monetary easing and not on artificial deadlines.

The weaker data, and Dudley’s statement, gave the stock market a strong injection. The rally seen over the last two days continued. Dow Jones again reached the psychological important 15 000 level and traded up 0.89 %. Nasdag equally added 0.94 %. European bourses had another good day after EU finance ministers urged to fight youth unemployment, and took new important steps towards a European bank union. The ministers simultaneously took criticism on the handling of the Cyprus bank crisis and haircutting of private accounts.

These developments had an immediate impact on the currency market, which is deemed to continue to be volatile. EUR/USD recovered from 1.2999 and traded at 1.3032. It needs a clear and more thorough brake to avoid being stuck in bearish territory. The belief in continued easing also hit the other safe haven currency, JPY. British Pound Sterling, GBP, fell dramatically to 1.52. This is the lowest level seen in 3 weeks. The weaker pound came as a reaction to an adjustment of British economic growth in the first quarter. Growth is much lower than expected.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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30 JUNE 2013: NEW VOLATILITY EXPECTS MARKETS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The fears for an early termination of Federal Reserve’s (FED) stimulus might be gone for now after the US down revision of growth, and disappointing data on jobless claims at the end of last week. This does not help global markets which are entering July, nervous for new volatility. Hopefully the panic selling of equities witnessed in June has come to an end, but a poll demonstrates that managers have taken substantial capital out of their funds, sitting on the fence with cash waiting for a new development.

The US stock markets ended in red on Friday with Dow Jones Industrial again dipping below the critical 15 000 benchmark. Global stock markets lost ground in June giving away 1.3 % of the gains in 2013, triggered mainly by several central banks economic stimulus. Hardest hit are the markets in Asia. Japan’s “Abenomics” turned for a short while the Japanese Nikkei seemed to be a success story. The Nikkei, however, suffered serious losses with the strengthening of the YEN on FED’s indication for a possible deadline for their bond buying program.

It has been a lackluster month for commodities and precious metals. Gold, which for the last fifteen years has been regarded as a strong hedge, has fallen 23% only the last quarter. It recovered nicely on Friday, but this “recovery” might rather be seen as a technical correction after the earlier steep falls. Commodities with copper was also up 1% last week after losing 10% the last quarter. Oil prices have been keeping relatively steady. Brent has been able to stay above the critical USD 100 a barrel.

The Dollar gained ground against both the Yen and the Euro on Friday. EUR/USD dipped again below 1.30 after breaking through the strong technical resistance represented by the 200 days moving average on 1.3062 earlier in the week. The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, suggested that it might be necessary to undertake stronger ECB-stimulus to get the Euro zone out of the deep recession as European finance ministers are becoming increasingly worried of the social and economic consequences of an unemployment figure above 25 % in many member countries

The unemployment among youth is reaching alarming proportions and stands above 50% in most southern European countries. On Friday, Croatia became the last country to join the EU, but the prospects of privatizations leading to more unemployment do not create great enthusiasm. If the EU, based on recession realities, have to take talk on stimulus seriously, that shall immediately have a negative effect on the strength of the Euro. Volatility seems therefore to be the order of the day in July.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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02 JULY 2013: EUR/USD AND GOLD GAIN ON MANUFACTURING

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Stronger than expected manufacturing data from Europe and Japan yesterday lifted the EUR/USD to 1.3052 up from last week’s low of 1.2983. DXY, the USD index against a basket of currencies, fell 0.2 % while the USD/JPY again sniffed on 100 Yen/Dollar level. For the first time in months there was positive manufacturing data from the Euro zone and England. This created a better market sentiment with increased appetite for risk. Stock exchanges in Europe and the US ended higher.

The Dow Jones traded close to 15 000 at 14 974 up 0.5 %. The technology heavy Nasdaq added 0.85 %. After falling as low as USD 1180 an ounce Friday, gold gained both yesterday and is up 2.1 % today at 1250. Other commodities such as copper, also recovered. Oil prices got a welcomed boost by the stronger manufacturing. New York crude, NYMEX, jumped above USD 98 a barrel and Brent crude reached USD 103 after trading close to 100 at the end of last week.

The increased gold prices represent the most interesting development during this week.Triggered by the comments from the Federal Reserve, FED, gold started its slide in earnest in April when FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke, set out a framework for the first time for the US central bank to exit its “quantitative easing”.

Gold peaked at USD 1250 yesterday. The open question now is whether USD 1180 represents a bottom, and this week’s turn around is a technical correction after the 29.5 % tumble since the 1st of January. Investors shift away from Gold has been dramatic. Fund managers have been selling one fifth of their Gold holding, and the interest for Gold futures and options are the weakest since 2005.

Some analysts see investor’s positioning so extreme that Gold, in the short term, is unlikely to fall much lower. A sidelong trade is expected. Impacting Gold negatively is weak Asian interest presently. Asians have been the strongest supporters with Gold declining, but this time there is no appetite for buying. The concentration has instead been on the high cost of Gold producing.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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03 JULY 2013: US-STOCKS DIP IN VOLATILE SESSION

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Stocks in the US dipped Tuesday afternoon on weak trade volumes. The session started in positive territory, with technology and industrial shares gaining after one of the big car manufactures, Ford, presented good sales numbers pointing towards the economic turnaround, witnessed as well by data earlier in the week. In spite of strong car sales in June, markets turned down. Dow ended down well below the 15 00 mark. Continued unrest in Egypt with a military ultimatum to president Mursi, led oil prices higher and boosted the energy sector.

The low volumes in the equity market were partly due to the forthcoming US Independence day on Thursday.The markets are also closed for trading the second half of Wednesday. Jobless claims are going to be presented on Friday. The number of jobless might be a new important indicator on when the Federal Reserve (FED) is going to start tapering and set a final date for terminating its economic stimulus and ending its bond buying program. Better jobless claims will be seen as an improvement of the US economy, which might lead to an early termination of economic stimulus.

The US Dollar raised to its highest level against the Japanese Yen since the recent volatility seen in the stock and currency markets, which started with FED’s indication of setting a date for terminating monetary easing two weeks ago. USD/JPY jumped again over the 100 Yen a Dollar mark and reached 100,72. The Dollar index, DXY, where the Dollar is weighed against a basket of currencies, reached the highest level seen in four weeks. The weaker Japanese Yen caused the Nikkei to jump 1.7 %.

EUR/USD fell 0.7 % at 1.2962, nearly 100 points down from Monday’s high. Copper and other commodity prices were up. Brent crude rose for the third day in a row reaching above USD 104 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, traded close to 100 a barrel. Gold prices, which have jumped over the last two days, fell back to 1242, 10 Dollar down from Monday’s high. The other important precious metal, Silver, fell back as well. Portuguese bonds sank to their lowest level in weeks, when three ministers left the government in protest against the austerity measures.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

04 JULY 2013: OIL PRICES SKYROCKET DUE TO TURMOIL IN EGYPT

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Oil prices moved steadily up yesterday on continued turmoil in the Middle East, and threat of disruptions in the transportation of Oil from the region. NYMEX, New York crude, is up 4%, trading at USD 101 a barrel. Brent crude raised to USD 105.75 after the Egyptian military ousted the elected president Mohammed Morsi, who rejected to give in to the presented ultimatum to withdraw.The military has taken over power and promised to prepare for new presidential elections.

The military coup came after thorough demonstrations and clashes between supporters and opponents of Morsi. President Morsi’s opponents welcomed the military intervention. The unrest in Egypt threatens the stability in the whole Middle East; Egypt being the most populous state in the region with borders also to Israel. Gold and Silver, which have fallen steeply over the last few months, also gained on the development, as did the Japanese Ten. USD/JPY trades at 99.93. EUR/USD is 1.3003.

Attention in the US was focused on the jobless claims which came in 5000 lower than last week. Unemployment data for June is slightly better than in May, falling to 7.5 %. This is still far from the 6.5% the US Federal Reserve (FED) has set as a target for ending quantitative easing. Presented numbers on trade and services were disappointing, and do not point to a quick turnaround in the American economy.

Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended up, after a short and volatile session before closing for the 4th of July Independence celebrations. Dow was 12 points short of breaking the 15 000 level. European markets were weak after the last turmoil in Portugal, where several ministers including the influential Minister of Foreign Affairs, have threatened to leave the government. The political crisis has revived fears of a Portuguese debt crisis. In Greece there are questions whether the Samaras-Government will be able to live up to the obligations set by the troika, which put pressure on European equity markets and indeed the Euro.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

05 JULY 2013: DRAGHI’S COMMENTS BOOSTED STOCK INDEXES TO RECORD GROWTH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Yesterday we could see rapid growth on the world markets after the meeting of the European Central Bank, Bank of England and speech of Mr. Draghi. Increase in the main world stock indexes had more emotional character rather than fundamental. In general, the head of the European Central Bank once again calmed investors with verbal interventions and there were no steps undertaken. Mr. Draghi once again confirmed preservation of stimulating policy of the European Central Bank, and let investors know that interest rates are going to be kept on a low level for a long time. In comparison, more or less the head of the European Central Bank gives us the same comments and information that we consequently hear from Mr. Bernanke.

Despite the fact that the trading session in the USA has been closed, the leading stock exchanges finished the trading session on Thursday in positive territory. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE 100 grew by 2.9%, the index of the Parisian stock exchange CAC 40 added 3.08%, the index of the Frankfurt stock exchange DAX rose by 2.11%.

As for the currency market, we saw steep falls in many currencies in relation to the American Dollar. EUR/USD from the level of 1.3008 dropped down to a minimum on 1.2882, this morning - pair is traded on a level of 1.2897.

Great British Pound was the first one to start correction in relation to the Dollar, having vigorously reacted to hints from the Bank of England. The monetary policy, as expected, remained the same, however Mark Carney didn't want to waste time and already made changes in tactics of communication with the market. If earlier the accompanying statement, in case of an invariable course, wasn't published, now decisions and actions of the bank will be more transparent. Within comments it was noted that despite positive signs of economic recovery, in comparison to historical measures – it still remains weak. This means that the most probable level of an interest rate will not be defined by the current signals. These words immediately sent pair GBP /USD down: from level of opening at 1.5277 to a minimum of 1.5054, having finished the trading session only 15 points higher. This morning, the Pound continues to bargain next to the level of 1.5000.

Today investors are going to wait for unemployment figures from the United States, which will have an influence on the markets and will help to decide on further direction of the markets.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

08 JULY 2013: STRONGER LABOR DATA STRENGTHENS USD

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

US stocks jumped one percent on Friday, while the Dollar rallied, and interest rate on debt treasury bills fell as the US labor market presented stronger data than expected, showing that the US economy is on a more solid footing. The data will be a strong argument for the Federal Reserve (FED) to start tapering the bond buying program already in September. Non-farm payrolls increased with 196 000 in June. Unemployment stays at 7.6 %. FEDs official target for a healthy unemployment bill stays at 6.5 %.

The Dollar index, DXY, against a basket of major currencies is strongly up. EUR/USD traded Friday on 1.2831, the lowest level seen in months. The trend towards a weaker Euro is most likely to continue this week, with USD/JPY moving towards an earlier peak on 103 Yen against the Dollar. Commodities listed in USD are falling with the strength of the Dollar. Precious metals are again hard hit with Gold falling 2.1 %.

EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today to decide on releasing a third bailout and rescue package on 8.1 billion Euro for Greece. The troika of lenders; The European Central Bank (ECB), EU-commission and International Monetary Fund, IMF, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the slow implementation of the 12 500 reduction of civil servants. The troika has been under fire for the austerity measures undertaken against Greece. An IMF representative admitted lately that their policies had aggravated the problems in the Greek economy.

The EU Commission has flatly rejected these claims, and the Finance commissioner for EU, Olli Rehn, stated that Greece has to intensify its reform commitment. The Samara's three party government, consisting of the EK right party, social democratic PASOK, and left of center party, has steadily lost authority, threatening Greece with new elections and an unpredictable outcome most likely strengthening the socialist left and the far right Golden Dawn party. Both parties reject continued austerity measures.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

09 JULY 2013: USD CORRECTS DOWN REACHING 3-YR HIGH

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

US Dollar corrected down 0.3 % after the DXY: a basket of major currencies weighed against USD, reached a 3-year high yesterday. EUR/USD traded at 1.2876 after dipping close to 1.28. USD lost to JPY with 100.93 Japanese Yen paid for a Dollar. Oil prices, which jumped, after new clashes over the weekend between supporters of President Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood and the military forces, left 17 dead in Cairo's streets. Brent lost 29 cents to USD 107.43 a barrel. NYMEX, New York crude, stood at 103.14. Gold gained 20 Dollars to 1228 on a weaker Dollar.

Alcoa, the alloy giant, was, as always, the first company to present quarterly results. The report was slightly better than analysts expected. Global stock markets were strong on Monday with European and US indexes posting gains. Asia started the week in red Monday morning after credit worries in China. Nikkei was the only Asian exchange gaining ground on a weaker Yen boosting exports. Also on Monday a US advisory company recommended shareholders to accept Michael Dell’s USD 24.4 Billion buyout offer.

In Brussels, Greece secured a Euro 8.7 Billion lifeline. The Samara's government came under heavy pressure before yesterday’s Minister of Finance meeting. The new bailout tranche was given on the condition that Greece deliver on its promise to cut 12 500 jobs in the public sector and continue vigorous austerity efforts. Bailout funds might be withheld if these conditions are not met.

In a situation where the US Federal Reserve (FED) due to slightly better data, probably might start tapering monetary easing already in September, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) have stated willingness to go in the opposite direction and follow FED’s earlier example to ease monetary policies and actively use the printing press. This has put the British pound (GBP) under strong pressure. USD/GBP has fallen below 1.50 trading at 1.4955, the lowest level seen in a long time.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd