USD/JPY: Yen Is Not Afraid of Dollar
Against the backdrop of investors” defection from risk, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, successfully resists the dollar's gaining strength. Since past March, USD/JPY has been moving along the 110.00 horizon, making rare attempts to get outside the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.55 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.80, and the range of fluctuations barely exceeded 110 points: from 109.10 at the low to 110.22 at the high.
This behavior of the pair forces both experts and indicators to make very contradictory forecasts. Among the first, 45% side with the bulls, 35% side with the bears and 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 35% are colored red, 15% - green, 50% - neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of green.
Support levels are 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Lull Before the Storm?
Bitcoin has slowly and uncertainly creeped up all week, trying to overcome a strong level of resistance around $48,000. Two attempts, on August 14 and 16, ended in failure, after which BTC/USD rolled back to the support of $44,000. At the time of writing this review, towards the end of Friday, August 20, it went to the assault again, broke through the resistance and reached the level of $49,000 in the thin market.
The total crypto market capitalization increased over the week from $1.957 trillion to $2.043 trillion, that is, by just 4.4%. And, although it has overcome the $2.0 trillion bar, it is not at all a fact that it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also remained still at 70 points.
This sluggishness and uncertainty may be due to the fact that large institutional investors are currently focusing on the traditional market. But we must not forget that mid-August is the height of the holiday period, and many traders will not step up until the end of the month.
Very strong drivers are needed to dramatically push the market up or down. World media reporters drew attention to Jerome Powell's online speech to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”. But for now, the head of the Federal Reserve's reasoning about supporting cryptocurrencies is only theoretical.
Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone also spoke in favor of the first cryptocurrency, who emphasized that “digitalizing money and the financial industry” gives bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time gold, according to the analyst, has no strong drivers for growth, and BTC is therefore quite capable of replacing this metal as an asset for risk hedging and wealth accumulation.
According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term. The well-known cryptanalyst PlanB calls a slightly bigger figure. In his opinion, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model he developed very closely, so the BTC/USD pair should reach $135,000 by the end of December.
Of course, all these figures are only the assumptions of specialists. Another cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. Bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst says.
The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move.
Santiment, a web data analysis firm, reported encouraging data for investors. Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”
Bitcoin miners are also in no hurry to part with their coins, over the past month, their balance has grown steadily. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin as well, so they do not want to take profits now.
Despite the fact that the dominance of bitcoin has decreased from 69.7% to 43.8% since the beginning of the year, this coin is without a doubt still the main engine of the digital market. It is clear that the main competitor for BTC at the moment is ethereum. On some exchanges, it overtakes the reference cryptocurrency in terms of trading volumes already. And according to some experts, such as the head of the deVere Group Nigel Green, ETH may push bitcoin to second place in a few years.
As for the closer prospects, the popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named several altcoins that are ready for a rally and may surpass BTC in profitability in the near future. The first on the list is ripple. According to the trader, the XRP/BTC pair is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DonAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
https://nordfx.com/
Against the backdrop of investors” defection from risk, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, successfully resists the dollar's gaining strength. Since past March, USD/JPY has been moving along the 110.00 horizon, making rare attempts to get outside the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.55 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.80, and the range of fluctuations barely exceeded 110 points: from 109.10 at the low to 110.22 at the high.
This behavior of the pair forces both experts and indicators to make very contradictory forecasts. Among the first, 45% side with the bulls, 35% side with the bears and 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 35% are colored red, 15% - green, 50% - neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of green.
Support levels are 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Lull Before the Storm?
Bitcoin has slowly and uncertainly creeped up all week, trying to overcome a strong level of resistance around $48,000. Two attempts, on August 14 and 16, ended in failure, after which BTC/USD rolled back to the support of $44,000. At the time of writing this review, towards the end of Friday, August 20, it went to the assault again, broke through the resistance and reached the level of $49,000 in the thin market.
The total crypto market capitalization increased over the week from $1.957 trillion to $2.043 trillion, that is, by just 4.4%. And, although it has overcome the $2.0 trillion bar, it is not at all a fact that it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also remained still at 70 points.
This sluggishness and uncertainty may be due to the fact that large institutional investors are currently focusing on the traditional market. But we must not forget that mid-August is the height of the holiday period, and many traders will not step up until the end of the month.
Very strong drivers are needed to dramatically push the market up or down. World media reporters drew attention to Jerome Powell's online speech to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”. But for now, the head of the Federal Reserve's reasoning about supporting cryptocurrencies is only theoretical.
Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone also spoke in favor of the first cryptocurrency, who emphasized that “digitalizing money and the financial industry” gives bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time gold, according to the analyst, has no strong drivers for growth, and BTC is therefore quite capable of replacing this metal as an asset for risk hedging and wealth accumulation.
According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term. The well-known cryptanalyst PlanB calls a slightly bigger figure. In his opinion, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model he developed very closely, so the BTC/USD pair should reach $135,000 by the end of December.
Of course, all these figures are only the assumptions of specialists. Another cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. Bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst says.
The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move.
Santiment, a web data analysis firm, reported encouraging data for investors. Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”
Bitcoin miners are also in no hurry to part with their coins, over the past month, their balance has grown steadily. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin as well, so they do not want to take profits now.
Despite the fact that the dominance of bitcoin has decreased from 69.7% to 43.8% since the beginning of the year, this coin is without a doubt still the main engine of the digital market. It is clear that the main competitor for BTC at the moment is ethereum. On some exchanges, it overtakes the reference cryptocurrency in terms of trading volumes already. And according to some experts, such as the head of the deVere Group Nigel Green, ETH may push bitcoin to second place in a few years.
As for the closer prospects, the popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named several altcoins that are ready for a rally and may surpass BTC in profitability in the near future. The first on the list is ripple. According to the trader, the XRP/BTC pair is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DonAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
https://nordfx.com/