Daily Forex News By XtreamForex

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USD/CHF Struggles Below 0.8800 Amid Slow Markets
The USD/CHF pair is currently encountering challenges as it strives to surpass the 0.8800 level, a scenario highlighted by the most recent news and market analysis. The lack of dynamic movement in this pairing can be attributed to a confluence of factors that are significantly influencing the overall sentiment within the market.

One of the pivotal factors contributing to traders’ apprehension is the impending release of mid-tier Swiss data. This impending data release has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market, prompting caution among traders. Adding to this air of uncertainty is the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, a high-profile event where influential central bankers are slated to deliver speeches in the upcoming week. This event is further deepening the sense of vigilance among traders, as they closely monitor these key figures’ insights.

The broader risk appetite prevailing in the market is also contributing to the prevailing hesitancy among momentum traders. A juxtaposition is seen in the US 10-year Treasury bond yields, which initially experienced a drop but subsequently exhibited a rebound and found stability. Correspondingly, the S&P 500 Futures have showcased a resurgence and stabilization. Furthermore, a corrective bounce has been evident in the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan.

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EUR/GBP looks to consolidate around 0.8520 ahead of PMIs from Eurozone and UK

EUR/GBP finds itself in a crucial juncture, with all eyes on its consolidation around the 0.8520 mark, a pivotal level that could set the tone for its immediate trajectory. As the Asian session unfolded on a Wednesday that carried high stakes, the currency pair grappled with the task of recouping losses incurred during the prior trading day, tentatively floating near the 0.8520 level. This struggle finds its roots in the prevailing apprehension surrounding the potential escalation of interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE).

Market participants have assumed the role of vigilant observers, meticulously following the developments on the UK economic calendar. The spotlight is particularly on the imminent release of the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs) for August. The outcome of this data release holds the promise of illuminating the paths that the respective economies of the Eurozone and the UK are embarking upon. The ripples of this revelation have the potential to resonate significantly in the trading decisions involving the intricate dance of EUR/GBP.

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EUR/USD stands firm above 1.0850 despite weak Eurozone PMI data; attention shifts to Jackson Hole
Despite receiving unfavorable news about the state of the Eurozone’s economy, the EUR/USD exchange rate remains relatively stable, holding above the key level of 1.0850. As the Asian trading session progresses on Thursday, the pair is observed to be trading around 1.0870, marking a second consecutive day of gains. This development is particularly intriguing due to the recent release of weaker-than-anticipated Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and Germany on the preceding Wednesday. This unexpected data has sparked concerns among investors, who are diligently attempting to decipher the potential implications for inflationary trends.

The preliminary HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone in August has displayed a decline to 47, a figure notably below the earlier forecast of 48.5 and also falling short of the 48.6 recorded in the previous month. Simultaneously, Germany’s Composite PMI has registered a drop to 44.7. This outcome is disheartening for market experts, who had projected a more favorable reading around 48.3. A comparison to July’s figure of 48.5 further highlights the subdued nature of the reported data.

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Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus
The positive momentum in Dow Jones futures ahead of Tuesday’s opening was mirrored by upward movement in S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures during overnight trading, indicating a buoyant start to the trading session.

This week, the ongoing vigor of the market rally remains a focal point as investors turn their attention towards the eagerly awaited Friday jobs report, a pivotal event in the closing week of August. The implications of this report are far-reaching, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate shifts. A strong report wouldn’t necessarily translate to an imminent rate hike, while a less robust report, with payroll gains hovering around 100,000, could potentially take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Simultaneously, market watchers are gearing up for the release of the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and spending for July, an influential indicator of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Thursday.

In terms of earnings, Salesforce.com (CRM), a key player within the Dow Jones, is poised to disclose its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Notably, this leaves just Nike (NKE) and Walgreens (WBA) as the remaining components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet to announce their earnings reports.

In addition, several software companies are slated to release their earnings, including MongoDB (MDB), Nutanix (NTNX), Samsara (IOT), as well as security software entities such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA).

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USD/CHF Trims Five-Week Loss, Shifts to Mid-Tier Swiss/US Data
In the early hours of Wednesday’s European session, the USD/CHF currency pair continued to maintain its position, showing resilience after experiencing its most significant daily loss in the past five weeks, with levels hovering around 0.8790. This retracement in value is occurring in a backdrop where the US Dollar is preparing for pivotal data releases. Concurrently, there has been a perceptible shift in market sentiment away from the previous dovish stance held towards the Federal Reserve (Fed). This shift has created an environment that has enabled the Swiss Franc (CHF) to assert itself, resulting in the pairing securing its first daily gains in a span of three sessions.

The enduring influence of the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains palpable, maintaining a somewhat elevated position due to concerns stemming from recent data releases related to US consumer confidence, employment metrics, and the housing sector. These concerns primarily revolve around the looming possibility of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. This change in stance becomes particularly evident as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscores the importance of anchoring future decisions on data dependencies, thereby underpinning the current hawkish posture. This pronounced sentiment shift has in turn reverberated across the Greenback and the broader landscape of US Treasury bond yields.

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USD/CAD Falters Near 1.3730; Eyes on US, Canada Jobs Data

The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a slight dip in the vicinity of 1.3730 as market participants eagerly anticipate labor market data from the US and Canada. The US Dollar (USD) has been on a losing streak, which has led to the CAD’s current position.

In September, the US ISM Services PMI dropped from 54.5 to 53.6, matching predictions. However, the ADP Employment Change for the same month saw an increase of just 89,000, falling short of the anticipated 153,000 and hitting its lowest point since January 2021.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also receding from an 11-month high due to a decline in US bond yields, currently hovering around 106.50. Despite this, market wariness about the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rates could provide some support to the USD/CAD pair.

Expectations of prolonged higher interest rates from the Fed had driven US yields to multi-year highs before they began to bounce back. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which reached a peak of 4.88% on Wednesday—the highest since 2007—was at 4.71% at the time of writing.

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GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.2200 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The GBP/USD currency pair has been exhibiting some resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. After opening with a modest bearish gap below 1.2200 levels at the start of a new week, the pair managed to recover, moving closer to a one-week high touched on the preceding Friday. Spot prices are currently fluctuating around the 1.2220-1.2225 region, primarily influenced by the performance of the US Dollar (USD).

The USD, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, received a slight boost due to a global shift towards safer assets. This trend was triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Hamas militant group in Gaza launched attacks on Israeli towns, an event that shocked the world due to its unprecedented nature. Israel responded with airstrikes on Gaza and declared war against the Palestinian enclave of Gaza. This conflict resulted in hundreds of casualties on both sides, further intensifying global anxieties.

However, the USD’s bullish momentum is held back by uncertainties about the future path of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hikes. These uncertainties lend some support to the GBP/USD pair, preventing it from a steep decline.

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Gold Maintains One-Week High Amid Israel-Palestinian Conflict Gains
The gold market has experienced a week of consistent gains, with prices holding steady above the $1,860 mark. These gains are primarily attributed to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Palestine, which have heightened global risk sentiment. Investors seeking a safe haven have turned to the precious metal as a refuge amidst the uncertainty.

Another factor contributing to the upward trajectory of gold prices is the retreat in U.S. Treasury bond yields. This retreat is a consequence of shifting expectations regarding further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Recent comments from Fed officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, have signaled a more cautious approach to future rate increases. The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields has been seen as a useful tool in the fight against inflation. This change in the Fed’s tone has led to a decrease in U.S. Treasury bond yields and has also put pressure on the U.S. Dollar. These factors collectively contribute to the continued rise in the price of gold.

However, it’s important to note that the market is still factoring in the possibility of at least one more rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year. This expectation may limit the downside for U.S. bond yields and the U.S. Dollar. As a result, investors are closely monitoring key events and data releases this week.

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USD/JPY Climbs Toward 149.00, US Data Watched

The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trajectory, reaching approximately 148.80 during the Asian session on Wednesday. This consecutive gain followed a rebound in the previous session, driven by a positive risk sentiment amidst ongoing Middle East conflict.

One noteworthy development is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) contemplation of revising its fiscal year 2023/24 core Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimate. They are aiming for a 3% target, up from the previous forecast of 2.5%, reflecting an optimistic outlook on inflation. This potential shift in the BoJ’s stance has implications for currency dynamics.

Adding complexity to the situation is China’s Country Garden facing the prospect of defaulting on a $15 million coupon payment. This issue is particularly relevant given the challenges in the Chinese property sector, even as the overall Chinese economy exhibits signs of recovery. Any disruption in China’s economic landscape can have a cascading effect on the Japanese Yen due to the intertwined nature of their economic relations.

Moreover, the recent decline in Japan’s non-seasonally adjusted Current Account for August, falling short of expectations, raises concerns within the broader economic context. The report posted a reading of ¥2,279.7B, well below the forecast of ¥3,090.9B and the previous reading of ¥2,771.7B. Although the Japanese economic calendar for the remainder of the week is relatively thin, this disappointing data point warrants attention.

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USD/CAD Retreats from Weekly High, Stays Below 1.3700
The USD/CAD pair is experiencing a decline in the Asian trading session on Friday, retreating from the weekly high it reached at 1.3700. As of the moment, the pair is trading within the range of 1.3680 to 1.3675. Several factors are contributing to this downward movement, although there is some support preventing a significant decline.

One key factor putting pressure on the USD/CAD pair is the rise in Crude Oil prices, which is bolstering the Canadian dollar (often referred to as the Loonie). Additionally, the US dollar (USD) is showing a slightly weaker performance, serving as another headwind for the USD/CAD pair. The recent dovish statements made by various Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have indicated that the central bank is approaching the end of its interest rate hike cycle. This has led to a containment of US Treasury bond yields, hindering the USD from capitalizing on the robust recovery it exhibited on Thursday, rebounding from a low that lasted for over two weeks.

However, any substantial losses for the USD are somewhat limited due to the revival of expectations for additional tightening of Fed policies. This, in turn, supports the potential for dip-buying in the USD/CAD pair. Both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US have remained above the Fed’s 2% target, rekindling expectations for at least one more rate hike by the Fed by the end of the year. This scenario restricts the decline in US bond yields and warrants caution when considering new bearish positions in the USD.

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USD/CHF Maintains 0.9000 Level Before US Retail Sales

The USD/CHF pair is facing a sustained downtrend, with its value hovering around 0.9020 during the Asian trading session on Monday. This decline in the USD/CHF pair can be attributed to the lingering uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming decisions on interest rates, which is creating a complex and volatile environment for the US Dollar (USD).

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing increased demand due to the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East. The CHF has traditionally been considered a safe-haven currency during times of geopolitical instability, and investors seeking a secure and stable currency are turning to the CHF amid the current geopolitical uncertainties.

Recent reports have indicated discussions between US officials and Israel regarding a potential visit by President Joe Biden to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reported to have extended an invitation for this visit, which adds a layer of geopolitical complexity to the situation.

On the economic front, the Swiss Producer and Import Prices (YoY) for September showed a 1.0% decline, which was a slight increase from the previous month’s decline of 0.8%. However, the monthly data revealed a 0.1% decrease, contrasting with the 0.8% decline observed in August. Later in the week, the Trade Balance for September is set to be released, offering further insights into the Swiss economy.

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Australian Dollar Holds Steady After RBA Minutes Release
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its upward trajectory against the US Dollar on Tuesday, marking the second consecutive day of gains. This buoyancy in the currency was primarily fueled by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes for the October 2023 meeting, which revealed a relatively hawkish tone.

During the RBA’s October meeting, the central bank’s board deliberated whether to increase interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) or maintain the existing rate. Ultimately, the board decided that the more prudent course of action was to keep rates unchanged. Their decision was informed by a careful assessment of various factors, including inflation data, employment figures, and updated forecasts, which will be available at the November meeting.
Of particular note was the acknowledgment by RBA board members that there were significant concerns about potential upside risks to inflation. This suggests a cautious approach, highlighting the board’s vigilance regarding factors that could lead to an inflationary uptick.

However, on the domestic front, there are indications of waning consumer confidence in Australia. The latest Australian Weekly ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence survey, released on Tuesday, reported a decline in consumer confidence, with the reading falling to 76.4, compared to the previous figure of 80.1. This dip is observed across all sub-indices, reflecting a more cautious or negative sentiment among consumers.

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Pound Sterling Rises Amid Persistent UK Inflation

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has strengthened following a report from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) that September’s inflation exceeded expectations. This higher inflation could prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to consider further policy-tightening during its November monetary policy review.

Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister, might face questions on his commitment to reduce inflation to 5.5% by the end of the year due to the stubborn Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. High inflation is likely to further impact the already struggling UK housing sector, mainly because of rising borrowing costs.

Key Data Insights
– The Pound Sterling draws interest after a higher-than-anticipated inflation report for September.

– Monthly inflation increased by 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.4% and the previous 0.3%. Yearly CPI surged to 6.7%, outpacing the projected 6.5%.

– Core inflation, excluding food and oil prices, rose by 6.1%, just above the expected 6.0% but less than the 6.2% in August.

– Factory goods and services prices grew by 0.4%, differing from the previously released 0.9% and 0.8%.

– The BoE faces challenges as it aims to reduce inflation to the 2% mark.

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USD/JPY Struggles Below the 150.00 Mark; Anticipation Grows for Fed’s Powell Upcoming Address

In the recent trading activities, the USD/JPY currency pair displayed a noticeable wane in momentum, hovering around the 149.80 range during Thursday’s early European session. Analysts postulate that the potential downside of the currency pair could be kept in check due to a notable uptick in US Treasury bond yields. To provide perspective, the 10-year US Treasury yield has soared to an impressive 4.966%, marking its highest since 2007. Concurrently, the 2-year Treasury yield remains at a firm 5.246%.

With the week progressing, all eyes are set on the upcoming Japanese inflation data, scheduled to be released on Friday. This is particularly significant given the anticipation surrounding Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food, which is projected to register a 2.7% YoY increase, a dip from the previous 3.1% figure.

Shifting focus to the US housing sector, data from Wednesday presented a mixed bag. While Building Permits for September declined to 1.475M, this outpaced the market’s consensus estimate of 1.45M. In contrast, Housing Starts only managed to reach 1.35M, falling short of the projected 1.38M, as per the data released by the US Census Bureau. In another significant update, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book underscored a stable US economic outlook, with minimal changes observed between September and the early part of October. This stability hints that the Federal Reserve may remain steadfast in its current policy direction.

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The USD Index Stays Steady Near 106.00s, Anticipates Fedspeak

The USD Index (DXY), a significant benchmark that measures the US dollar’s performance against a collection of its major global counterparts, showed a slight inclination towards the 106.30 mark as trading closed on Friday. This movement is especially noteworthy as it gives investors insights into the current sentiment surrounding the greenback on a global scale.

Such movements in the index, especially towards the end of the week, often draw interest. Market enthusiasts have keenly analyzed comments made by Chair Powell on Thursday. His remarks, which leaned on the side of caution, hinted at the Federal Reserve’s inclination against a potential rate hike in the upcoming November session. Powell’s cautious approach is not surprising given the broader economic context, and it gives a hint about the likely short-term trajectory of the US monetary policy.

One of the major driving factors behind the greenback’s performance is the movement in US yields. After an aggressive upward trend, marking multi-year highs, the US yields are now seemingly pausing. This pause comes after an unwavering rise across various maturity levels that began in early May. Such fluctuations in yields often act as an indirect commentary on the health and anticipated trajectory of the US economy.

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EUR/GBP near 0.8700 after UK job data; Eurozone, UK PMI watched

The EUR/GBP cross is facing downward pressure as it approaches the 0.8700 mark. This comes after the release of mixed UK employment statistics on Tuesday. Both the Eurozone and the UK are expected to release pivotal economic data, which will significantly influence the market ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision on Wednesday.

In the UK, the ILO Unemployment Rate for the quarter leading to August was 4.2%, a slight improvement from the previous 4.3%. This surpassed market predictions, which stood at 4.3%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed on Tuesday that there was a rise in people seeking unemployment benefits in September, increasing by 20.4K from last month’s 0.9K and exceeding the anticipated 2.3K. In addition, the British Employment Change for August was recorded at -82K, which is better than the -207K in July and above the forecasted -198K.

Rumors suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) might hold the interest rates at 5.25% in their upcoming November meeting. This speculation arises from the subpar data that indicates the UK Manufacturing PMI is below the standard 50.0 mark, and there’s a decline in Retail Sales, hinting at a slow-paced UK economy.

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Asian shares rise on strong corporate profits and lower oil prices

Asian markets showed resilience and optimism on Wednesday, following the lead of Wall Street, as major corporations like Verizon exceeded profit expectations for the summer season. This boost in corporate earnings has instilled hope that companies will finally show growth after a year of stagnation, a development of utmost significance for global stock markets, which have grappled with the pressures of surging bond yields.

The recent surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed from below 3.50% in the spring, has been a cause for concern. It is steadily approaching the Federal Reserve’s main overnight interest rate, which currently stands at its highest level since 2001, above 5.25%. The rapid rise in yields has adverse effects on various investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, and also has the potential to hamper economic growth, introducing stress into the broader financial system.

As of early Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.84%, indicating a temporary respite from its upward trajectory. In the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei 225 index surged by 1.3%, reaching 31,466.92 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also saw robust gains, rising by 1.8% to 17,290.91, while the Shanghai Composite index registered a 0.5% increase, reaching 2,977.84 points. Conversely, South Korea’s Kospi experienced a 0.4% decline, settling at 2,373.88 points, and the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney remained relatively unchanged at 6,856.60 points. India’s Sensex faced a 1.3% dip, while the SET index in Bangkok soared by 1.2%.

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EUR/GBP Eyes the 0.8700 Threshold as Market Anticipates ECB Rate Decision

In recent market activities, the EUR/GBP trading pair has shown a promising upward trend, maintaining positive traction for two successive days. During the early trading hours on Thursday, this cross has been observed around 0.8726, marking a modest but notable 0.02% increase from the previous day’s rate.

Central to the market’s attention is the much-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision set to be announced later on Thursday. Widely, expectations are that the ECB will choose to keep the rate stable without any changes. This perspective is rooted in the fact that markets have priced ECB policy rates to remain consistent throughout the year, implying the end of its hiking cycle.

However, the scenario becomes more intricate when we consider the statements and potential strategies of ECB President Christine Lagarde. In comparison to the Bank of England (BoE), Lagarde seems to lean towards a tightening bias, a move which, if actualized, could fortify the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling (GBP).

In a recent declaration, President Lagarde emphasized the ECB’s intention to maintain a vigilant eye on the escalating crisis in the Middle East. She highlighted the critical importance of understanding the potential repercussions this crisis might have on the economic stability of the eurozone, demonstrating the bank’s proactive stance on global events and their domino effects.

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USD Index Faces Pressure Near 106.5 Ahead of Crucial Economic Data Release

The USD Index (DXY), a significant barometer that measures the U.S. dollar against a group of its primary competitors, has seen a diminishing upward drive, pulling back to mid-106.00 levels as the week draws to a close. This retreat in the index marks a change in trajectory after three consecutive days of gains, and this recent dip has caught the eyes of many market watchers.

Previously, the index had declined, tapping a three-week low near 106.90. This slide comes even as U.S. yields seem to be stabilizing around their recent multi-year highs across varied maturity ranges. The prevailing sentiment among investors suggests a pause by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming event, leaving the possibility of a rate increase in December very much on the table.

This speculation was further strengthened when U.S. GDP figures for Q3, along with Durable Goods Orders, outperformed expectations on Thursday.

In the realm of U.S. economic data, a significant amount of anticipation surrounds the forthcoming release of inflation numbers, represented by the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Core PCE. These key indicators will be closely followed by other important metrics such as Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the final numbers for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

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USD/JPY Maintains Stability Above Mid-149.00s As Market Awaits Crucial Decisions from BoJ and Fed
The currency pair USD/JPY is exhibiting a steady performance, registering around 149.65, having made a minor pullback from its monthly zenith of 150.77 earlier during the Asian trading window on Monday. The trading community appears to be adopting a cautious stance, opting to remain on the periphery in anticipation of impending monetary policy decisions from both Japan and the United States. Such key financial events are known to induce significant market fluctuations.

A notable aspect shaping the dynamics of the currency pair is the differing monetary stances of the US and Japan. This difference is exerting pressure on the Japanese Yen when juxtaposed against the US dollar. Market whispers are rife with speculations regarding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential recalibration of its Yield Curve Control (YCC) strategy. A recent poll conducted by Reuters indicates a growing consensus among market analysts. They project that the BoJ might bid adieu to its prevailing negative interest rate approach by the next year. This shift aligns with the prevalent sentiment that the central bank is inching closer to wrapping up its ultra-supportive monetary stance.

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