Forex Technical Analysis by FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

The Dollar is Corrected after the Comments of the Head of the Federal Reserve

Good data on the labour market in the United States and the continuous rise in inflation for several months are helping to reduce experts’ expectations about a change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States. Recent comments from the head of the Federal Reserve confirm the fears of market participants. At a speech at the Wilson Center in Washington on Tuesday, Jerome Powell said: "More confidence will be needed that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent before it is appropriate to ease policy." Such statements undoubtedly should have supported the US currency, but judging by the movement of the major currency pairs, dollar buyers simply need a little respite.

GBP/USD

At the beginning of the current five-day trading period, quite diverse statistics came from the UK:

• In February, the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% against the forecast of 4.0%
• The level of average wages rose to 5.6% versus 5.5%
• The level of average wages rose to 5.6% versus 5.5%

Such indicators allowed pound buyers to find and test support at 1.2400.

According to technical analysis for GBP/USD (Japanese candlesticks) on the daily timeframe, we have a bullish engulfing combination. If the price fixes above 1.2480, a corrective pullback for the pair may extend to 1.2540-1.2520. A refresh of the recent low could lead to the start of a new downward impulse in the direction of 1.2330-1.2280.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG


Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%

At the beginning of the week, March 15, we wrote that the price of Brent oil could form a correction from the resistance level of USD 91 per barrel. Since then, the price has decreased by more than 4% due to a number of factors:

→ easing concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Reuters, and easing its conflict with Israel reduces the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

→ reduction in oil consumption. JP Morgan analysts noted this week that global oil consumption in April stood at 101 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels below forecast.

→ growth in oil reserves in the USA. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red

AUD/USD declined below the 0.6500 and 0.6455 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.5950.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6000 resistance zone.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5890 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6540 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6500 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6455 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6400. A low was formed at 0.6362 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6410 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

The next major resistance is near 0.6455, above which the price could rise toward 0.6540. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6600. A close above the 0.6600 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6680.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6360 zone. The next support sits at 0.6340. If there is a downside break below 0.6340, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6300. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6265 support.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Escalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts

On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.

Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media.

And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets:

→ gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above;

→ the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price;

→ oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price.

There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.”

As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe:

→ An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack;

→ CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack;

→ According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike.

→ According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran.

As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments.

The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

NFLX Stock Price Falls Despite Subscriber Growth

Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session on the stock market, Netflix reported to investors for the 1st quarter of 2024.

The report turned out better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.28, forecast = USD 4.52;
→ gross income: actual = USD 9.40 billion, forecast = USD 9.27.
→ The number of subscribers increased by 9.3 million (expected +4.8 million).

However, NFLX's pre-market share price today is hovering around USD 580, about 6% below yesterday's closing price.

Negativity manifested itself in:
→ disappointing forecasts for the 2nd quarter;
→ investors also did not like the decision to stop providing quarterly reports on changes in the number of subscribers next year.

If NFLX stock opens today around the USD 580 level, then it would indicate that the market has moved down to the lower boundary of the parallel channel (shown in blue).

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Commodity Currencies at Strategic Levels. What Can Affect a Breakdown Downwards?

The decline in investor expectations regarding a change in the vector of the Fed's monetary policy contributes to the fall of not only European, but also commodity currencies. So, in recent weeks:

• AUD/USD has lost more than 200 points and is testing the extremes of 2023 near 0.6400
• USD/CAD is trading at three-year highs and has managed to strengthen by 300 points

What may affect the pricing of the main currency pairs on the market in the coming trading sessions:

• Speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee (today at 17.30 GMT+3.00)
• Publication on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes (today at 20.00 GMT+3.00)
• Announcement on the base lending rate from the People's Bank of China (Monday at 4.15 GMT+3.00)

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD currency pair has come close to the important range of 1.3970-1.3800, above which the price has not risen since 2020.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the possibility of a downward correction in the short term, since a dark clouds combination has been formed on the daily timeframe, the development of which could lead to a breakdown of yesterday’s low at 1.3740 and a further test of 1.3650-1.3620. If the upward movement resumes, the price may break through the recent high at 1.3840 and continue to rise in the direction of 1.3970-1.3880.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's 15 - 19 April Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: UK100, USD, GOLD, OIL

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
• The Dollar is Corrected after the Comments of the Head of the Federal Reserve
• XAU/USD Gold Price Reaches an Important Resistance Zone
• Since the Beginning of the Week, the Price of Brent Oil Has Fallen by More than 4%

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Bitcoin Price Bullish after Halving-2024

On April 19, 2024, a halving occurred in the Bitcoin network, resulting in the reward for the mined block amounting to 3.125 BTC.

Historically, after the halving (which is associated with a reduction in supply), the price of Bitcoin heads to all-time highs. But, as Forbes reports, Goldman Sachs analysts warn against extrapolating the results of Bitcoin price movements after past halvings to the current moment. After all, back then, the halvings occurred during a period of loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, while this time the Fed is struggling with harsher-than-expected inflation.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou are also cautious. “We do not expect Bitcoin price increases post halving as it has been already priced in,” they wrote.

However, this morning Bitcoin is trading above USD 66,000, the highest price in a week. Adding to the market's positivity are rumors that the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong is going to approve spot applications for Bitcoin ETFs.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Hong Kong-listed Chinese Insurer Goes on Rally as Western Giants Retract

The Asia Pacific region has once again become an area of great interest to investors and traders as some remarkable patterns of volatility have begun to make their presence felt.

This morning, a few examples of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies which have made headway are apparent as the Asia Pacific region's trading session spearheaded the beginning of the week ahead for financial markets.

One such company is China Pacific Insurance, whose Hong Kong-listed stock is available for trading as a CFD on FXOpen's TickTrader platform.

The company has made some remarkable headway over the past few weeks, culminating in a further acceleration in value toward the high point that it has reached today, placing it among the top risers across all markets globally.

At the end of last month, China Pacific Insurance stock was at a low point, trading at 13.28 HKD on March 27, however, this situation turned itself around quickly, and throughout April so far, the stock has been increasing in value, reaching 15.91 HKD according to FXOpen pricing by 8.00 am UK time this morning by which point the majority of the trading day in Hong Kong was complete.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

The Price of Gold XAU/USD Shows Strongest Fall in Almost 2 Years

On Monday, the price of gold fell from USD 2,386 to USD 2,333 per ounce — this is the strongest drop in one day in almost 2 years, according to Bloomberg. On Tuesday morning in the Asian session, the price continued to decline, reaching USD 2,300 per ounce.

This happened against the backdrop of:

→ easing tensions in the Middle East. According to Tehran's official statement, Israel received "the necessary response at this stage."

→ signs that the Federal Reserve will keep rates high for longer.

One of the reasons for the intensification of sales can also be considered the desire to take profits by those who held long positions — we wrote about this in the post “The price of gold XAU/USD has reached an important resistance zone” on April 16.

Nevertheless, the gold market continues to remain in an upward trend — since the beginning of the year, its price has increased by 11.5%.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Volatility in the Pound Is Rising, the Euro is Consolidating

GBP/USD
At the end of last week, the British currency fell sharply, testing a significant support level at 1.2300. The resumption of the downward trend for the pair became possible after some statements by British officials:

On Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he expects a strong decline in inflation from next month.
Dave Ramsden, Deputy Chairman of Markets and Banking, was also quite optimistic, noting that the recently published UK core CPI data was nothing more than a “glitch” in the deflationary process, and risks to sustainability and domestic inflationary pressures were beginning to recede.
After such statements by British officials, expectations for a rate cut on the pound shifted to August, and since the Fed does not plan to cut the rate before September, the GBP/USD pair continues to suffer losses.

GBP/USD technical analysis indicates further development of the downward trend, as the price has consolidated below the alligator lines on higher time frames, the AO oscillator is red and below zero. At the same time, before a new downward impulse, a corrective growth in the direction of 1.2420-1.2400 is possible.

If pound sellers manage to refresh the recent low at 1.2300, the pair could test 1.2220-1.2140.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold Price Corrects Gains While Oil Price Regains Strength

Gold price rallied above $2,400 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85.50 resistance.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price rallied significantly above $2,400 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,310 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $82.00 resistance zone.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $82.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above the $2,350 resistance, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even broke the $2,400 level before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to the $2,420 zone before there was a downside correction. There was a move below the $2,355 pivot zone. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and RSI dipped below 50. Finally, it tested the $2,290 zone.

The price is now correcting losses above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,417 swing high to the $2,291 low. It surpassed a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,310.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,330. The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,417 swing high to the $2,291 low at $2,355.

An upside break above the $2,355 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,420 level. If there is no fresh increase, the price could continue to move down.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,310 level. The first major support is $2,290. If there is a downside break below the $2,290 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,265 support.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

TSLA Share Price Up About 13% Despite Disappointing Report

Yesterday, TSLA trading closed at USD 144.68 per share, after which Tesla reported its results for the 1st quarter:

→ earnings per share: actual = USD 0.45, forecast = USD 0.49;
→ gross income: actual = USD 21.45 billion, forecast = USD 22.2 billion.

However, in the post-market, TSLA's share price rose approximately 13% thanks to Elon Musk's plans and statements:

→ We faced numerous challenges in Q1, including the conflict in the Red Sea and the arson attack at the Gigafactory in Berlin. We think the second quarter will be much better.

→ EV adoption rates around the world are under pressure, but electric vehicles will dominate the auto industry in the long term. We continue to invest in AI infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, Supercharger networks, and new products.

→ Production of new models will start at the end of 2024 — beginning of 2025 on existing production lines.

The stock's rise after the report shows that optimism about the start of production of a new model that could be the most affordable in Tesla's lineup outweighed concerns about the poor report and increased competition.

On April 5, we wrote that the price of TSLA could reach the psychological level of USD 150 per share.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

AUD/USD Rises Sharply on Inflation News

The Consumer Price Index for Australia was released this morning. According to ForexFactory:

→ CPI in quarterly terms: actual = 1.0%, expected = 0.8%, previous value = 0.6%;
→ CPI in annual terms: actual = 3.5%, expected = 3.4%, previous value = 3.4%.

Rising inflation figures suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia's tight monetary policy may continue beyond expectations - which is why the Australian dollar has jumped higher relative to other currencies.

Thus, from the minimum of the year against the US dollar, recorded on April 19, the Ausssie rose in price by more than 2%.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Yen in Search of New Lows, Commodity Currencies at a low Start

In recent trading sessions, the dollar has been trading quite differently to leading currencies. Thus, the yen is reaching historical lows, European currencies have managed to correct, and the Australian and Canadian dollars are testing strategic supports.

USD/JPY

The absence of currency interventions from the Bank of Japan and strong macroeconomic data from the United States are pushing the USD/JPY pair to new levels, above which the price has not risen since 1990. However, in the coming trading sessions the situation may change dramatically:

• Today at 15.30 (GMT +3:00) US GDP data for the first quarter will be published
• Tomorrow at 5.30 (GMT +3:00) a meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place, at which a decision on the base interest rate will be announced.

This week, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued what is now the strongest possible warning about the possibility of intervention. "I will not deny that these events have laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate action (in the foreign exchange market), although I will not say what those actions might be," the official said.

According to technical analysis of USD/JPY, the pair is in a phase of exponential growth, which can be interrupted at any significant resistance. If a downward pullback begins, the price may drop to 154.70-1.53.60.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

META Share Price Collapses after Publication of Quarterly Report

Just yesterday, META's stock price closed at USD 493.50, up approximately 40% since the start of 2024 and up nearly 300% since the start of 2023.

However, following the release of Meta's quarterly report, its shares plummeted to USD 400 in post-market trading, representing a decline of more than -15%.

It is noteworthy that the report exceeded expectations in some of the main indicators:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 4.70, forecast = USD 4.32;
→ revenue: actual = USD 36.4 billion, forecast = USD 36.1 billion.

However, investors were disappointed by plans for the coming months, as Meta said second-quarter revenue would be between USD 36.5 billion and USD 39 billion, below the average estimate of USD 38.24 billion. This could be due to increased investment in developing AI-based products , which do not yet generate income.

At pre-market today, the META share price is around USD 418.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.