Daily Technical Analysis 12.2.2013 ACFX.com

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 15th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : -
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday EURUSD initially traded lower and then reversed and closed above prior support. A weekly positive RSI divergence appears to be setting up. This divergence needs to be confirmed by the close of business tonight. We are now monitoring a possible move to 1.3135 being the level of the last isolated high. Alternatively a break of support would once again focus our attention on the short side.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 15th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday there was no sign of negative rotation as GBPUSD slashed through the 8 period moving averages and closed strongly. After such a strong move it would not be surprising if there was a pull back to the 8 period moving averages especially as the price is fairly well extended into a Fibonacci zone. However GBPUSD could also possibly attempt to trade up to previous support being 1.5230.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 15th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday we wrote “USDCHF as mentioned prior to the move found good support and bounced off the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring a possible move that breaches the previous isolated HH”. USDCHF did make the HH but then closed lower. We have identified a weekly negative divergence setting up which needs to be confirmed by tonight’s close. As we are now trading beneath the 8 period moving averages we are monitoring the possibility that USDCHF trades much lower. Furthermore if today’s price action can close beneath yesterday’s range then we may have a significant short set up forming as yesterday’s candle is the last isolated HH.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 15th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
USDJPY continues to trade above the 8 period moving averages. We continue to monitor pull backs to the small average as a buying opportunity.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 15th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
Gold continues to find support above the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action for a possible move to the 34 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 15th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Oil continues to trade within the range of the previous three days, however yesterday we had a good positive close and this morning we are trading near the high of what is now a four day range. A break out from the top of this range is a possible tradable long opportunity but as always our preference is to identify opportunities off lower time frames and enter in the direction of the move. Alternatively a failure to breach the top of the range would place focus onto the short side with the 8 period moving averages being the initial target where support may be found. Our preference being to sell Oil after we have identified a negative rotation off a lower time frame.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 19th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : -
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The terms of the bail out for Cyprus and the tax on bank deposits hit the markets hard on Monday with the Euro reversing Friday’s gains and gapping down at the open. This morning EURUSD is trading up from yesterday’s lows. It would not be a surprise if we saw a full are partial gap fill but with market being so jittery and hanging off the utterance of every politician the market could just as well trade lower. We are today monitoring the price action for an indication of the short term direction.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
After trading higher, GBPUSD is now consolidating at the highs within a tight range. We are monitoring the price action to see if the Pound either trades down to the 8 period moving averages where it will find support or break higher to the area of prior support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 19th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
After trading dramatically lower on Thursday the Franc has traded back to the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can trade above the average.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 19th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
USDJPY has breached the 8 period moving averages where buying has come in. We are monitoring the price action to see if USDJPY can once again trade above this average.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 19th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
Gold has traded as expected to the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages which may possibly offer support to any further upmove.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 19th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
This morning Oil is breaking up from its 3 day range. We continue to monitor a possible move to target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 20th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : -
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Following the rejection of the terms of the Cyprus bail out and the unrelenting pressure being heaped upon Cypriot politicians by the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble there will have to be a resolution very soon as the uncertainty with respect to the Euro Zones banking system could infect other ailing countries such as Italy and Spain.

From a purely technical perspective, EURUSD failed in its initial attempt to close the window that was created by the opening gap and eventually traded lower. The price action is once again extended from the 8 period moving averages. Our bias continues to be negative but with both eyes firmly be kept on the news flow.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 20th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
GBPUSD has once again opened up this morning with in a tight range which is now entering its fourth day.
We are monitoring the price action to see if the Pound either trades down to the 8 period moving averages where it will find support or break higher to the area of prior support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 20th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
This morning USDCHF is trading higher and hovering just above the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring the possibility the Franc trades up to the previous higher high however the negative weekly divergence does also give us a heads up that further downside corrective price action is a possibility.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 20th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Once again we focus our attention on USDJPY possibly breaching a closing above the 8 period moving averages where it this currency pair will find support prior to moving towards the last isolated HH. Alternatively a move down could push USDJPY initially move to the 34 period moving average and then to Fibonacci support. However the hidden weekly positive divergence may be a heads up that USDJPY could possible trade higher.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 20th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
After a strong move to the 34 period moving averages Gold has this morning stalled and opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the 8 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 20th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Yesterdays attempt by Oil to break out from its range failed and reversed dramatically. For upward momentum to continue we would like to see Oil breach and close above the 34 period moving averages and in the process pull along the 8 period moving averages with it so as to form Golden Cross (short term average crossing the long term average). A failure to do so will put the attention back on the short side with a breach and close of the 18th March low confirming a switch in bias.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : -
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Talk of deals behind closed door and followed by rumors of disagreements is adding to the uncertainty and market jitters.

The Euro reversed off its lows and has traded up to the 8 period moving averages. Although a gap fill is still a possibility we are currently monitoring the price action at the small average to ascertain if the upward momentum could possible stall.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
GBPUSD yesterday traded down to the 8 period moving averages and as predicted this is an area where support was found. Although the Pound traded higher and breached the highs of the range GBPUSD eventually pulled back to close just beneath its open. Yesterday’s range of some 160 pips exceeds the 14 day Average True Range by some 40 pips. With the Pound opening this morning in the middle of the range this could offer scalpers opportunities to take advantage within the range. As the price action is still trading above the 8 period moving averages we continue to monitor pullback to the averages as possible buying opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
USDCHF has failed thus far in its attempts to close above the 8 period moving averages. Combined with the weekly divergence there is now a possibility that the Franc could trade down to Fibonacci support. We continue to monitor the price action and its relationship to the 8 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
We identified in a prior posting that the hidden weekly positive divergence might be a possible heads up for higher prices. Yesterday USDJPY did trade higher and closed above the 8 period moving averages. We are now monitoring the possibility of USDJPY trading into the direction of the last isolated HH.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 21st March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
The 34 period moving averages is now offering resistance to Gold with the price action now being squeezed between the 8 and 34 period averages. We now have a two day range with this morning’s price action opening within this range. We are monitoring break outs and break downs from this range with an eye being kept on the price reaction if it trades down to the 8 period moving averages. One point to note is the dramatic drop of in the value of the 14 period Average True Range. Such extreme low values do not usually last for long and it is not an unlikely possibility that Gold begins to once again experience wider ranges.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 21st March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Oil yesterday traded higher and although it did not reverse the previous day’s entire sell off it did manage to close above the 8 period moving averages. This average may offer some support to a further up move however Oil does also need to break the resistance of the 34 period moving average.As mentioned yesterday for upward momentum to continue we would like to see Oil breach and close above the 34 period moving averages and in the process pull along the 8 period moving averages with it so as to form Golden Cross (short term average crossing the long term average). A failure to do so will put the attention back on the short side with a breach and close of the 18th March low confirming a switch in bias.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
With Monday’s deadline for a solution looming and with the potential of more news over the weekend the market seems to be in wait and see mode as can be seen by this morning’s open and the tight range over the past three days.

Our technical bias is negative but with so much news flow, the market as can be seen by this week’s price action is ranging and an ideal environment for scalpers with a sound strategy. With respect to pure position plays, our preference is to wait for a break of the range and trade the pullback on a lower time frame.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
GBPUSD yesterday found good support at the 8 period moving averages and has this morning opened positively. As the Pound is moving towards resistance we are monitoring the price action for possible negative rotation. However with the 34 period moving averages looming above the current price action there is a possibility that the price action trades to this average before stalling

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 22nd March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
USDCHF this morning is attempting to trade above the 8 period moving averages. We would like to see a close above this average as confirmation of the continued up trend. However the weekly negative divergence needs to use up its energy and this might be occurring with the price action essentially ranging around the 8 period moving averages after the two day collapse of the 14th and 15th March. A failure to hold above the 8 period moving averages will probably mean a switch in bias and a move back to Fibonacci support.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 22nd March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
After close above the 8 period moving average USDJPY yesterday was once again pushed back beneath it where it found support at the 34 period moving averages. The hidden weekly positive divergence is still in play therefore any resumption to the upside could possibly be strong and push the Yen past the last isolated HH. Alternatively the current ranging price action from the highs could be the USDJPY using up the energy of the divergence prior to breaking lower. The case for lower USJPY will be confirmed if the 34 period moving average can be broken and with the price action closing beneath it.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 22nd March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
Gold has closed and is now trading above the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action to see if the 8 period moving average could form a Golden Cross (short average crossing above the long average). With a continued drop off in the 14 period Average True Range it would not be a surprise to see a resumption of wider range days. The tight range action is now entering its fourth day. We are monitoring break outs and break downs from this range with an eye being kept on the price reaction if it trades down to the 8 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 22nd March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Oil is now trading within a four day congestion area and beneath the 8 period moving averages. We had been looking for a Golden Cross (short term average crossing the long term average) to occur. At present this is failing to happen therefore our attention falls back on the short side where pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages offering possible shorting opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 26th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
There was a solution of sorts to the current Euro Zone crisis but we await the open of local Cyprus banks on Friday to see if there is capital flight and how the capital restrictions that are put in place prevent this.

This morning the banking sectors and the citizens of Luxembourg, Malta and Slovenia are probably feeling a little on edge after the Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem and head of the Eurogroup made comments that Cyprus solution was a template for other countries with similar financial sectors to Cyprus. The markets took this as whose next? This can be seen clearly by the sharp reversal in EURUSD which initially attempted to break higher only to reverse and fall to a new low.

The price action is now extended from the 8 period moving average and any pullbacks to this area are possible shorting opportunity. However with so much news around combined with European politicians and official’s propensity to brief without warning one has to expect increased volatility for the foreseeable future.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 26th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
As predicted, GBPUSD traded to the 34 period moving average and resistance. This is an area where the upward momentum has stalled. We are monitoring the price action to see if it can reverse to the downside from these levels. However as the current price action is supported by the 8 period moving averages we would like to see a breach and close beneath this average to confirm any reversal. Alternatively, a breach and close above yesterdays range could possibly signal much higher values for GBPUSD especially as a breach above the range would signal the continuation of the move from an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 26th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
There has been a great deal of volatility in USDCHF over past few sessions with a messy range and a wild reversal day yesterday that initially pushed the Franc lower to the 34 period moving average only to reverse and close higher. USDCHF is currently trading above the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring a possible move into the direction of the last isolated HH.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 26th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The USDJPY is trading at the 34 period moving average and we are monitoring this area as potential support. If Yen can pop up above the 8 period moving average then we will monitor a possible move to the last isolated HH. Alternatively a close beneath the 34 period moving averages combined with a black cross, (the short average crossing beneath the long average) could signal a temporary end to this long up trend.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 26th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
Gold has found some resistance at the 34 period moving averages but as mentioned in previous postings we now have a Golden Cross (short average crossing above the long average). This could possibly signal higher values for Gold.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 26th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Oil broke higher from its congestion range and is once again there is a possibility of a Golden Cross (short term average crossing the long term average) occurring over the next couple of sessions. As the bias has once again switched to the long side we are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages as possible long opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 28th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The Cyprus banks are set to open today and all eyes are on the island to see if the capital controls work and how long they will be required. The fear is the longer controls are kept in place the more we get to a reality of a two tier Euro with the Cyprus Euro having a lower value than the Euro for the rest of Europe.

This brings up the wider question of what is the true value of the Euro if you factor out the states that are having economic problems such as Italy. Furthermore is Germany and the North European states benefiting unfairly from a Euro whose value is low due to the Euro Zones economic crisis. If you tie this back into what has happened over the past two weeks the populations of Greece, Spain, Italy and now Luxembourg and Malta may begin to question the benefit of staying in a Euro Zone which they feel is geared to looking after the interest of bankers and the North European industrialists. With Slovenia, Luxembourg and Malta in the cross hairs of the Euro Group we are in for more interesting times.

Back to technical’s, yesterday EURUSD continued on its downward path is now extended from the 8 period moving average and we continue to look for pullbacks to this average as possible shorting opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 28th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The Pound has benefited from the Euro Zones turmoil over the past couple of weeks and it is interesting to see if the continued chaos pushes funds in the direction of London.

GBPUSD has traded away from resistance. This was to be expected after such a strong move back into resistance. We are monitoring the strength of the bounce from resistance and if another attempt is made to breach the resistance area.

The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play and we are monitoring the possibility of a golden cross of the moving averages. Alternatively a failure to trade above resistance will put the bias back onto the down side.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 28th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The move to Target 1 continues with the price action some 15 pips away from this target. As we are using the 8 period moving average to shadow the move it would not be a surprising to see the Franc trade back down to its average which would once again offer possible long opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 28th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 93.90 – 92.30
Target 1 : 96.70
Target 2 : 97.75
Stop : 90.85

Comments
USDJPY continues to trade at Fibonacci support. We are monitoring a potential move back above the 8 period moving averages and then the isolated HH.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 28th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
With the our focus being increasingly drawn to the Golden Cross of the moving averages and with three days of price support around the average, a close today or tomorrow above both averages would switch our attention onto the long side.

The degree of such a move is in question but possible targets could be the last isolated LH and then the down trend line. A breach of the last isolated LH would of course turn the swing count positive.

Alternatively a failure for the price action to close above the 8 period moving averages would switch our attention to the short side and a breach of the potential HL would confirm this bias.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 28th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Oil continues to move higher however we are noticing a decline in the daily range which is a possible indication that the price action needs to consolidate or correct itself prior to a further move to Target 1. This can be seen by the price extension from the 8 period moving. A move back to the average may offer possible long opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 29th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The banks in Cyprus open on Thursday without much incident. However, this was probably due to most people having better things to do with their time then queue up to withdraw Euro 300. EURUSD did bounce a little but so far the move up is more like a wimper than an emphatic roar that the Euro Zone and Germany succeeded in their experiment .The rise in the Euro being more down to profit taking prior to the long weekend.

With the Maltese trying to distance themselves to what happen in Cyprus with statements that their Banking sector is safe and the Slovenians fearing that they are now being targeted the significant news from London that after five years into this crisis the Bank of England’s Financial Committee has instructed the Banks to raise extra capital of GBP 25bn by the end of 2013 has gone a little unnoticed. It is probably a very sobering thought for the British people and much to the relief of the Euro Skeptics that the UK kept their pound and did not give up financial independence to European self interest groups that envy London’s dominant position as a financial centre in Europe.

The scary thought would be the Euro Group seeing the Cyprus experiment being a success and then rolling out this template to the other PIIGS. This would of course cause capital flight to perceived safe countries such as Germany and Holland. How fortunate for them.

Back to Cyprus the European Commission wants the capital controls want lifted as soon as possible but the Cyprus Finance Minister is talking about months. The targeting of deposit holders for the errors of well paid bankers has changed the rule book and the deposit holders who have been rewarded with worthless equity in banks will not forget what has happen so easily and those who have the ability to move funds to safer financial centers probably will.

Back to the technical’s the Euro is basing and the price is a little extended from the averages but with bank holidays in Western Europe today and Monday in Cyprus Traders are probably keeping away from the markets over the long weekend.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 29th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
The pound is trading just beneath resistance but we would expect a quiet day due to the Good Friday holiday.

The inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play and we are monitoring the possibility of a golden cross of the moving averages. Alternatively a failure to trade above resistance will put the bias back onto the down side.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 29th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
USDCHF continues to trade just above the moving average after touching it twice. We continue to monitor a possible move to Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend


Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 29th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 93.90 – 92.30
Target 1 : 96.70
Target 2 : 97.75
Stop : 90.85

Comments
USDJPY continues to trade within a very tight range at Fibonacci support. We are monitoring a potential move back above the 8 period moving averages and then the isolated HH.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 29th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80

Comments
Gold continues to trade around its Golden cross but with the Markets closed until late on Sunday night there is not much to report with a close above both averages would switch our attention onto the long side and the targets being the last isolated LH and then the down trend line. As mentioned yesterday a breach of the last isolated LH would of course turn the swing count positive.

Alternatively a failure for the price action to close above the 8 period moving averages would switch our attention to the short side and a breach of the potential HL would confirm this bias.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend



Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 29th March 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20

Comments
Oil continues to grind higher without a pause with the price action getting more and more extended from the 8 period moving averages. A move back to the average may offer possible long opportunities.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

 

[acfx]

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 2nd April 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -


Comments
EURUSD has traded back to the 8 period moving which is a possible initial area to monitor market rotation for shorting opportunities. As the Fibonacci shorting area we have identified is some 375 pips from the current price a more appropriate target if the Euro trades higher could potentially be the 34 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 2nd April 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -


Comments
USDCHF would appear to be attempting to put in a lower high. A breach of the 25th March low would confirm a potential change to a negative bias. However as the prevailing trend is up we continue to monitor a possible move to Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 2nd April 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 91.70 – 87.90
Target 1 : 98.20
Target 2 : 100.40
Stop : 85.20



Comments
After a continued up move Oil did pull back and as expected found support at the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action at these levels to see if support can hold and possibly push Oil to Target 1.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 2nd April 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : 1619.30 – 1656.55
Target 1 : 1554.60
Target 2 : 1526.85
Stop : 1684.80


Comments
Gold continues to trade around its Golden cross and within a tight range. A breakout from the current level may potentially push Gold into the direction of the downward sloping trend line.

Alternatively a failure for the price action to close above the 8 period moving averages would switch our attention to the short side and a breach of the potential HL would confirm this bias.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 2nd April 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : 93.90 – 92.30
Target 1 : 96.70
Target 2 : 97.75
Stop : 90.85



Comments
USDJPY moved lower and for the first time since 11th October 2012 the 8 period moving averages has crossed beneath the 34 period moving averages. The move into Fibonacci support has also been very aggressive. The long scenario would be to purchase USDJPY within the Fibonacci support area but we would like to see a support base built before longs are taken. The alternative scenario would be for an extended down trend with shorting opportunities on pull backs to the 8 period moving averages.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 2nd April 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -


Comments
Although the pound continues to trade beneath resistance the potential Golden Cross that we had been monitoring has been completed. The Golden cross combined with the inverse Head and Shoulders patterns potentially points GBPUSD trading up to the downward sloping trend line.

Alternatively a failure to trade above resistance will put the bias back onto the down side.

Definitions
Trend : Current trend as defined by technical Swing Analysis.
HH : Higher High
HL : Higher Low
LL : Lower Low
LH : Lower High
CofT : Change of Trend