Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

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MARKET NEWS

Jun. 19: American session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

The U.S. dollar continues to weaken after yesterday's Fed meeting and Dzh.Yellen speech. Even positive statistics are unable to hold the dollar index, which is currently losing about 0.30%, consolidating at at 80.25. Note that the number of applications for unemployment benefits last week fell to 312 thousand (penultimate values were about 318 thousand; outlook - 314 thousand). U.S. stock markets opened smoothly enough, the percentage change in the index is near zero.
Currency markets perked up noticeably. The EUR/USD soared to around 1.3640. Currency pair GBP/USD sets new highs in the 1.7050. The dollar fell against the franc (USD/CHF) in the area of support 0.8910 and USD/JPY pair is trading just above 101.80 after testing four-days low of 101.70.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1374

 

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MARKET NEWS

June 20: Asian session

MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1%, but Asian shares still hold near the 6-year high. Nikkei is up by 0.1%. US dollar doesn’t feel very confident versus its peers before US data due next week which economists forecast will show manufacturing activity cooled and the economy shrank.

USD/JPY slid to 101.80. AUD/USD is trading above $0.9400, below yesterday’s peak at $0.9431. NZD/USD edged up to $0.8720. Gold headed for the longest run of weekly advances since March after rising to a 2-month high, as expectations that borrowing costs in the US will remain low fueled demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3624, but is trading below yesterday’s peak at $1.3643. GBP/USD rose to $1.7050 after reaching $1.7062 yesterday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1375

 

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MARKET NEWS

June 23: Asian session

Asian shares extended a 6-week gain as a private report showed Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly expanded (HSBC Manufacturing PMI came at 50.8 vs. the forecast of 49.7). US dollar weakened versus its peers before data this week that may show US manufacturing and new home sales slowed, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates near zero.

AUD/USD jumped from $0.9370 to $0.9440 in the session, inspired by the upbeat Chinese PMI data. NZD/USD strengthened by 40 pips to $0.8740, hitting a fresh monthly high. Market expectations for the RBNZ July rate hike are mounting. Gold price consolidates around $0.9315, forming a triangle on the hourly chart.

USD/JPY slid to 101.90.The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda’s due to speak at 06:00 GMT. The Japanese government is considering bringing forward cabinet approval of its growth strategy and basic economic plan to tomorrow from June 27, Kyodo News reported on June 19, citing a government source.

EUR/USD rose a bit above $1.3600. GBP/USD went up to $1.7040.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1377

 

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MARKET NEWS
23 June 2014

CFTC: USD longs declined

According to the latest COT (Commitments of Traders) report, the net long USD positions fell from from $15.95 billion on June 10 to $12.19 billion on June 17. The USD dollar bullish bets showed a first decline after five straight weekly increases. Despite the weekly decline, the overall USD position remained on the bullish side for a 6 consecutive week.

Large speculators bets in favor of GBP, JPY, CHF and CAD increased, while EUR, AUD and NZD positions declined.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1378

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

June 23th: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Sales of secondary housing market rose to $ 4.89 billion, while analysts expected only $ 4.73 million - the following statistics released by the National Association of USA Realtors. But this growth has not helped to strengthen the dollar. In contrast, immediately after the publication the dollar index dropped to around 80.38 mark and is currently losing about 0.02%. Trading in the stock markets opened mixed. Thus, DJIA loses 0.20% and the S&P500 remains near zero.

In currency markets, today there is an uncertainty of participants, trading is held in a sideways mode. The pair EUR/USD consolidates below 1.3600 figure, where turned up during the European session. GBP/USD currency pair went back to Friday's minimums at 1.7000. USD/CHF pair is trading above 0.8945 support. The pair USD/JPY fell again to 101.80 today, from which is now happening a rebound in the direction of the figure.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1379

 

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MARKET NEWS

June 24: Asian session

Asian shares were mixed today after a much muted Wall Street finish. Investors are digesting improved manufacturing data from China, Japan and the United States augured well for global growth, though result from the euro zone was disappointing. The greenback remains under pressure ahead of US new home sales data later today. USD/JPY is little changed in the 101.90 area.

There are no market moving releases in Australia and New Zealand for today. AUD/USD gained some ground, recovering to $0.9430. The pair holds below the yesterday’s peak of $0.9445. NZD/USD followed the Aussie, recovering to $0.8720. Gold trades under a slight bearish pressure around $1315.

EUR/USD edged down a bit from $1.3600. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.7025 area.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1380

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (June 24)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3530, $1.3545, $1.3600, $1.3635 (large);

USD/JPY: 102.05, 102.75, 103.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8900, 0.9005;

AUD/USD: $0.9350/60 (large);

NZD/USD: $0.8655;

EUR/JPY: 138.50, 139.55;

EUR/GBP: 0.7975, 0.7985/90.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1381

 

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MARKET NEWS

June 24: European session

German IFO business climate came at 109.7, below expectations of 110.3. According to IFO, the ECB’s measures had no major impact on German economy; Q2 will be significantly weaker, but outlook for the German economy is good and consumer activity remains strong and stable. EUR/USD rose from $1.3590 above $1.3620 as the market players bought euro on the dips.

In the UK the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney and MPC members had to answer question on the monthly inflation report before the parliamentary Treasury Select Committee. Carney said that the pace of job creation in the UK remains strong, but the rate hikes will be limited and gradual with timing dependant on the economic data. He underlined that the recent sterling strength has not yet been supported by improvement in competitiveness. The BoE’s Bean said that early withdrawal of stimulus may risk productivity gains and that he sees a case for later rather than earlier exit from stimulus. GBP/USD was hurt by this last comment and slid below $1.6980.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1382

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

June 24: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

The dollar has begun to strengthen considerably today, after the positive statistics data from the U.S. The CB Consumer Confidence Index has risen to the 85.2 mark, instead of the forecast 83.5, while new home sales have exceeded all expectations - up to 504 thousand (predicted nimber - 440 thousand). This has allowed the U.S. dollar index to rise to the 80.45 figure, after a morning dip to 80.25. Thus, a positive trend is in effect and the index is adding about 0.15%. Major U.S. stock markets have opend in the green zone as well: DJIA is adding about 0.15%, S&P500 - 0.25%. A speech by Secretary of the Treasure Lew is expected a little later.

Currency markets are witnessing a significant recovery of the dollar against the majority of the world currencies today. Thus, the EUR/USD pair has once again got under the 1.3600 figure, after a day's testing of the 1.3620 resistance. The GBP/USD currency pair has fallen to around 1.6970. USD/CHF is trading in the 0.8950 area, after finding support at the 0.8930 mark. In the meantime, USD/JPY has soared to the 102.10 figure - the bears have refused to break through the 101.80 support.

More:
http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1383

 

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MARKET NEWS

June 25: Asian session

Asian shares fell on Wednesday, echoing losses on Wall Street as concerns about escalating violence in Iraq eclipsed stronger economic data. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell about 0.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei stock average lost 0.5%.

Commodity currencies are trading under a slight bearish pressure following the yesterday’s sharp selloff on strong US data. AUD/USD trades to the downside with a support seen at $0.9350. NZD/USD bounced 15 pips up from $0.8660. Gold remains under selling pressure as well.

USD/JPY slid to 101.85. EUR/USD is trading just above $1.3600. GBP/USD slid to $1.6970.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1384

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (June 25)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3530/40 (large), $1.3550 (large), $1.3560 (large), $1.3600 (large), $1.3625 (large), $1.3650 (large), $1.3655 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6975, $1.7030

USD/JPY: 101.50, 101.70, 102.00 (large) 102.10/20 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.8945;

AUD/USD: $0.9400;

EUR/CHF: 1.2200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1385

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
25 June 2014

Japan's Abe: end of deflation

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said deflation has ended in Japan and will be wiped away by new government policies designed to encourage business expansion. His ruling party will seek to pass a law in the next session of parliament to legalize casinos as part of a plan to boost tourism before the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, the premier said in an Bloomberg interview yesterday.

“Through bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and the growth strategy we have reached a stage where there is no deflation,” Abe said in the interview yesterday. "With the first sales tax rise since 1997 that took effect in April, this was an extremely difficult time for management of the economy, but I believe we were somehow able to overcome it.”

Despite the BOJ's optimism, most economists still believe it will need to ease policy again this year, supposedly in December. Nevertheless, the yen (JPY) looks strong unless the regulator steps in with the new easing measures.

More:http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1386

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Jun 25th: American session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS

The dollar is weakening in early U.S. session after the release of negative statistics. Thus, the country's GDP in the last quarter has changed significantly to the worse, to -2.9%, while analysts forecast a decline of only 1.7%. The previous change was -1.0%. In addition, durable goods orders became 1% smaller (forecast: growth of 0.2%). As a result, the dollar index dipped to 80.14 and is currently losing about 0.25%. Stock markets show a positive trend at the opening: DJIA adds about 0.20%, while the S & P500 - 0.10%.


Apparent weakness of the dollar is obviously seen in the currency markets as well: EUR/USD soared to 1.3650; GBP/USD pair is testing 1.7000. Currency pair USD/CHF fell to the support 0.8910, USD/JPY broke 101.80 and is testing the next important level of 101.60 now.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1387

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

June 26: Asian session

It was a quiet session with all the major pairs trading in tight ranges. The yesterday's USD pessimism turned to be short-lived. Asian shares rose as investors believe that the US economy is emerging from a worse-than-estimated contraction last quarter. Japanese Nikkei is up by 0.3%. USD/JPY keeps on testing the 101.80 support to the downside.

NZD/USD was the only big mover, jumping to $0.8770. Kiwi strengthened as New Zealand offers the highest interest rate among the developed nations. AUD/USD weakened to $0.9410.

EUR/USD consolidates around $1.3630, while GBP/USD - around $1.6990. Watch the BoE Financial Stability Report and Carney's speech in the European session.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1388

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels (June 26)

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3570/75, $1.3585 (large), $1.3600 (large), $1.3610/20 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.6900, $1.7000;

USD/JPY: 101.00 (large), 101.50, 101.65, 102.00 (large), 101.95 (large), 102.20/25 (large), 102.30;

AUDUSD: $0.9400;

EUR/GBP: 0.7970, 0.8930;

EUR/JPY: 138.00, 138.20.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1389

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS
26 June 2014

The BoE caps mortgage lending

GBP/USD hit the new session highs after the release of the BoE Financial Stability Report and the Governor’s Carney speech. Mark Carney said the recovery in the UK economy is broadening and strengthening, but the property market poses significant risks to financial stability.

To mitigate them the UK regulator will cap mortgages from October, so that people borrowing 85% of a house's value will not be allowed to borrow more than 4.5 times their income. They also announced new stress tests for the banks.

Carney underlined that the monetary policy outlook remains unchanged: rate hikes are needed, but they will be gradual and moderate.

GBP/USD moved higher on Carney’s comments, but faced resistance around $1.7030.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1390

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Jun 26th: American session

Tatiana Norkina, an analyst at FBS


Today U.S. dollar index was supported, in general, by fairly neutral data on the labor market. Despite the expected 310 thousand, the number of applications for unemployment benefits was 312 thousand last week, but it is lower than on the previous week - 314 thousand dollar index soared on the news to around 80.45, recouping yesterday's drop. Positive dynamics are preserved: +0.15%. But stock markets sagged noticeably at the opening. DJIA has lost about 0.60%, while the S & P500 - 0.50%.


Against this background, the pair EUR/USD fell to 1.3575 support and USD/CHF rebounded to the level of 0.8950. Currency pair GBP/USD tested 1.7040, but could not be held here: the ensuing course correction made it back down to 1.7000 figure. USD/JPY is out of context, it is currently trading at today's lows, in 101.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1391

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

June 27: Asian session

USD/JPY fell to 101.30. US dollar slumped to its lowest level in 5 weeks against the yen after downbeat US spending data gave investors no reason to hope for higher US rates anytime soon. Japanese inflation was in line with expectations.

NZD/USD touched $0.8790, hitting a new 12-month high. Kiwi buyers were inspired by a bigger-than-expected trade balance (285M vs. 250M expected). AUD/USD strengthened to $0.9430 mark – this is the one-month resistance area. Gold recovered to $1320.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3628 after dipping to $1.3575 yesterday. GBP/USD rose to $1.7050.

More:
FX BAZOOKA - June 27: Asian session

 

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MARKET NEWS

June 30: Asian session

USD/JPY hit 101.26, the lowest level since May 21. Japanese industrial production data was weaker than expected, while Japanese Nikkei is up by 0.3%, but yen bulls have shaken of these things and continued selling the pair as they did last week.

NZD/USD came under selling pressure in the session, but met support around $0.8740. Kiwi was sold on poor building consents (-4.6% vs. 1.9% expected) and business confidence data (42.8 vs. 53.5). AUD/USD consolidates in a narrow $0.9410/30 range. Bullish pressure remains limited by the major $0.9460 resistance area. RBA holds its policy meeting on Tuesday. Gold price holds at $1316.

EUR/USD opened with a small gap to the downside, but is trading in a stable fashion in the $1.3640 area. GBP/USD has also made a small gap and slid a bit to $1.7020.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1395

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

June 30: American Session

Tatiana Norkina, analyst at FBS

U.S. dollar index is sticking to the Friday's gradual decline and is losing about 0.10% by the time of American session opening, keeping near an important figure of 80.00. Against the background of a positive euro zone data, mixed statistics from the U.S. restrains the bulls. Thus, PMI by Chicago Management Association has fallen to 62.6 points, from 65.5. The forecast was at 63.00. At the same time, the number of pending home sales has increased by 6.1% from 0.5% (forecast - 1.5%). The trend is probable to change upward a little later, in case of retaining the 80.00 mark. Stock markets have opened trades with different trends. DJIA is slightly below 0.05%, while S&P500 is growing, adding about 0.20% already.

Currency markets are also keeping to the Friday's trends. Thus, EUR/USD has grown to around 1.3667, GBP/USD is storming new hills in the 1.7060 area. The USD/CHF currency pair is testing the 0.8890 support, while USD/JPY has rebounded from the 101.20 support and corrected to the 101.40 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1397