Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

acfx · Oct 21, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/21/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday EURUSD traded at the highs of the latest up leg in what was a very quiet London and New York session which failed to break the key 1.3710 resistance level. This morning’s open has thus far been extremely quiet.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore the last up move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top scenario.

However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday GBPUSD experience a very quiet day as it continued to find resistance off trend lines that where identified previously. This morning this theme has continued with GBPUSD opening unchanged.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following USDCHF rapid collapse off moving average resistance further downward momentum was halted at the 0.9020 resistance level. On Friday USDCHF experienced a quiet session which saw this pair fail to make a substantial move beneath the 0.09020 level. This morning USDCHF is making a moderate bounce off this support area however it is too early in the session to predict if this is an attempt for USDCHF to print a higher low swing.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Thursday’s price action saw USDJPY reject both Fibonacci and moving average resistance and in the process traded lower from these levels. However the price action on Friday was muted and this theme has so far continued into this morning’s session.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · Oct 22, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/22/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday closed near to its open and under the key resistance level. This morning open has thus far been negative as EURUSD trades away from the 1.3710 level.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore the last up move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top scenario.

However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower off trend line resistances and this move lower continued through to this morning’s session

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

The 0.9020 level continues to offer support to USDCHF as it closed for the third day around this level. This morning there has been a positive open off this level. We are monitoring the possibility that USDCHF either breaks the 0.9020 level or trades up to 8 period moving averages.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively we are monitoring a possible move to the 8 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 22nd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USD closed slightly higher as it hugged the 8 period moving averages whilst trading beneath Fibonacci resistance. This theme has so far continued into this morning’s session.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · Oct 23, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/23/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD broke through and closed well above the key 1.3710 resistance level. This breach now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

This morning EURUSD has opened negatively which is not a surprise as the price action is now very extended from its averages. We are monitoring the possibility of further corrective down to sideways movement however a break above yesterdays high could potentially indicate a further strong appreciation in EURUSD.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher but failed to close above trend line resistance. This morning GBPUSD attempted to continue with the upward momentum but ultimately this move above the trend line resistance also failed. Subsequently GBPUSD has traded lower. However this retracement has thus far not reversed all of yesterday gains with the pullback pairing some 60% of the up thrust if taken from the bottom of yesterday’s lows. This of course is a potential obvious Fibonacci support level.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF broke down aggressively from the 0.9020 support. This morning the 0.8930 support level is in play as the price action hovers above this area.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively USDCHF could potentially bounce off the 0.8930 area and trade back up to 0.9020.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY continued to hug the moving averages whilst trading beneath Fibonacci resistance. This morning USDJPY has traded strongly down from this area and is approaching the bottom of the converging triangle.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.

acfx · Oct 24, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/24/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the break of the key 1.3710 resistance level yesterday EURUSD struggle to make any further advances as it closed near the high of Tuesday’s candle. This morning we are seeing some initial buying pressure come into the market as EURUSD trades above Tuesday’s candle.

The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday after initially trying to trade above trend line resistance GBPUSD lost upward moment and eventually traded beneath the previous day’s close. However by the end of the session GBPUSD did manage to pair some of its losses and closed above yesterdays open. This morning the positive close to yesterday’s session has continued with GBPUSD trading higher. We are monitoring GBPUSD for a possible further push above trend line resistance.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 24th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the breach of the 0.9020 level yesterday USDCHF also broke the 0.8930 support level.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with the next support area on a weekly swing pivot basis being at the 0.8570 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively USDCHF is becoming increasing extended from the averages. This sets up the possibility of a corrective sideways to up corrective pullback.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY traded down to the area near the bottom of converging triangle support. This morning we are seeing some initial strength at this level. We are awaiting the open of the London session for confirmation that USDJPY can trade higher.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.

acfx · Oct 25, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/25/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded higher and away from the now broken key 1.3710 resistance level. This morning we are seeing some initial buying pressure with EURUSD printing a new high. We are monitoring the price action so as to see if EURUSD can continue its advance.

The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD closed higher but within the range of the prior two sessions. This morning so far the price action is similar to yesterdays. It would appear that GBPUSD is being squeezed on all sides by resistance and support areas. The questions are

1. Will GBPUSD break resistance or support first?
2. Once broken can this currency pair maintain the move.
On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high.

The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Having breached both 0.9020 and 0.8930 support levels yesterday USDCHF printed a bullish hammer candle. As the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that USDCHF experiences an up to sideways correction.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with the next support area on a weekly swing pivot basis being at the 0.8570 area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively USDCHF is becoming increasing extended from the averages. This sets up the possibility of a corrective sideways to up corrective pullback.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 25th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY experienced a brief pause as it printed a narrow range day. However this morning USDJPY has continued with it’s down trend with the price action having touched the converging triangle support. We are now monitoring the price action to see if USDJPY will either bounce off this level or break lower.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.

acfx · Oct 29, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/29/2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/29/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded within the previous 2 days range as the price action consolidated at the highs of this strong up thrust. This morning we are seeing EURUSD trade back to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where long positions could be entered. If this current level fails to hold support then the next value area is the 1.3710 level being a prior broken significant resistance level.

The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD closed beneath both the 8 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD attempted to breach the 34 period moving averages only for support to come into the market and push the price action higher. I have now drawn a secondary trend line which connects most significant pivot points.

On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of trend line support could see GBPUSD trade down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDCHF has now printed two bullish hammers at the 0.8930 level. Yesterday USDCHF was propelled higher from this level and into the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF is trading slightly higher. As the price action is now trading at the 8 period moving average value areas we are monitoring developments for signs of negative rotation that will push USDCHF back to the 0.8930 level.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.8930 and 0.8570 areas.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 29th October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the bounce off trend line support yesterday USDJPY traded higher and into the 8 period moving averages. This morning the price action opened negatively at this level. This is significant as the 8 period moving averages could be considered a good area of both support and resistance. With this in mind the question is can USDJPY break down with significant force so as to validate to the short side the large converging triangle that has been forming since the May high or will triangle bottom act once again as strong support.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.

acfx · Oct 31, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/31/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD opened and closed under the 8 period moving averages and this negativity has continued this morning with a breach of the 1.3710 support are. With support being in the area of trend line and 34 period moving averages it would not be unexpected to see the price action trading down to these levels. A move to this area would also coincide with 50 to 61.8 Fibonacci support area.

However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 8 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further with targets being the area of trend line and 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD opened and closed beneath the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning the price action is now trading deep into Fibonacci support.

GBPUSD does continue to trade above the prior isolated low. Furthermore GBPUSD is now trading within the previous day’s range and a positive RSI divergence is forming. This may indicate that this squeeze in volatility will lead to an upside pop.

However with the price action now printing a double top and trading beneath two broken trend lines there is also a probability that an attempt is made to breach the 16th October isolated low.

On an intraday basis the H1 (1 hour) chart seems to be putting in a double bottom. Our focus for the time being is 1.6077 and 1.5997 being the previous day’s High and low with a breach of these levels potential indicating the today’s market direction.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as there has been a breach of trend line there is a possibility of a move down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the printing of two bullish hammers at the 0.8930 level USDCHF has experienced a good corrective retracement past the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF continues to trade higher. As the price action is now trading above the 8 period moving average value areas we are monitoring developments for signs of negative rotation that will push USDCHF back to the 0.8930 level.

However yesterday USDCHF did try to breach the 0.9020 level and a further attempt was made this morning. If USDCHF can overcome this level then the next target is the 34 period moving averages.

On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.8930 and 0.8570 areas.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of the 0.9020 level could see USDCHF trade up to the 34 period moving averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 31st October 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the bounce off trend line support yesterday USDJPY traded higher and into the 34 period moving averages. This morning the price action opened negatively but continues to trade above this technical indicator. With USDJPY printing a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading above the 34 period moving averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

acfx · Nov 1, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/01/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded aggressively lower as it broke through trend line support and finally closing at the 34 period moving averages. Yesterday’s negativity has followed through to this morning’s session with EURUSD opening and trading beneath the 34 period moving average and deep into Fibonacci support.

After such a strong move down, the obvious focus goes onto the 16th October prior isolated low with. A move beneath this level will turn the daily swing bias to negativity. This scenario alone could give impetus for further down side movement.

However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned.

In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 16th October prior isolated low at 1.3470.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 34 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further to the 16th October prior isolated low.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDCHF experienced a stellar up day as it trade up and closed above the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF has opened positively and we are now monitoring the potential for a move to trend line resistance.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

USDJPY yesterday failed to trade into Fibonacci resistance. This failure has followed through into this morning’s session with USDJPY trading lower. We are monitoring the price action to see if a potential down move can be held at trend line support. Furthermore as USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Following the corrective rally Gold yesterday resumed its down trend by trading aggressively lower. This morning Gold has had thus far a very quiet open.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil has traded lower following its correction and touch of the 8 period moving averages. Yesterday Oil continued with the downward momentum albeit at a slower pace. This morning the price action has opened positively.

With the last isolated low of the 24th October being at the 95.93 Oil will need to breach of this level to continue with the down move. However Oil is now trading into a large weekly congestion area at around the 95.50 area therefore this support area needs to be overcome.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · Nov 4, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/04/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday EURUSD traded much lower as it broke down from trend line support and the 34 period moving averages. This morning EURUSD traded down to a lower trend line where buying came into the market.

However this morning’s moves lower has breached the 16th October prior isolated low. This breach has effectively changed the daily trend from up to down.

That the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence and with the price action this morning bouncing off support could give the market the excuse to bounce further. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday GBPUSD traded much lower as it broke down from the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD is making an attempt to breach the 16th October isolated low which would effectively change the trend to short. The moving averages have also crossed negatively which is an indication that the trend may change. However the RSI continues to for a positive divergence.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as there has been a breach of trend line there is a possibility of a move down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday USDCHF traded much higher as it broke away from the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF is trading towards the downward sloping trend line.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

On Friday USDJPY attempt to trade into Fibonacci resistance but ultimately failed to close inside this area. This morning’s open has been very quiet.

As USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance.

In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis.

However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Gold on Friday continued to trade lower as it resumed with the prior down trend. This morning Gold has opened quietly and within Fridays range.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Oil on Friday broke the 95.50 support level and is now trading within a large prior congestion area.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · Nov 6, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/06/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD traded lower but closed above the upward sloping trend line. This morning EURUSD is trading higher but within the previous two days range. A break above of or beneath the top or bottom of this range might indicate medium term market direction.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down.

However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher following its bounce off support. This positivity has continued into today’s session with the price action now trading up to the 34 period moving averages.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday failed to breach trend line resistance. Today’s session has so far been negative with today’s price action trading within the previous two days ranges.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY traded away from the Fibonacci resistance area however the move down was limited and reversed at the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY is trading higher and retesting the Fibonacci area.

We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation.

The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morning’s session.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Oil continued to trade and closed lower. This morning’s open has been quiet thus far.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · Nov 7, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/07/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday EURUSD breached the high of the two day range only for the price action to trade back and close within this range. This morning EURUSD has open up slightly positive. We are monitoring the market action for signs that EURUSD will succeed with the upside breakout or alternatively this pair trades back to trend line support.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down.

However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative.

Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is trading around trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD breached and closed above 8 period moving averages. This positivity has continued into today’s session with the price action trading above the 34 period moving averages.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

The price action continues to trade under trend line resistance and this morning has opened up within a four day range.

On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend.

The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY found support at the 8 period moving averages. This morning the price action continues to hug this average. However the Fibonacci resistance area continues to stall USDJPY upward momentum.

We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation.

The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities

Scenario 2
Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morning’s session. We are monitoring breaks of this range with key levels being 1327.00 and 1305.50.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Oil rallied up to the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added. This morning Oil has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · Nov 8, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/08/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 7th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday’s surprise rate cut decision led to a collapse in EURUSD with the price action breaking through trend line support. By the afternoon buying came into the market which paired some of the losses. This reaction to the sell off formed a large V bottom and substantial correction that allowed EURUSD to close just beneath prior trend line support.

This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath yesterday’s low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.

In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layer negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by yesterday’s break down and the breach of Fibonacci support.

However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.

The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3650, and 1.3930. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday GBPUSD attempted to trade lower only for support to come into the market and in the process allow for a slightly higher close. This morning’s open has so far been quiet.

On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterdays upside break of the 3 day range was followed by a breach of both trend line resistance and more importantly the 15th October high. The breach of this high is significant as USDCHF has now printed a higher high that effectively changes the trend on a swing basis to up. However yesterday was not a totally positive day as selling came into the market at trend line resistance that paired some of yesterday’s gains and in the process a bearish shooting star candle has been printed.

This morning USDCHF has opened within yesterdays large range in what is so far a quiet open.

On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.

However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.

Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.

Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.

Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday USDJPY experienced a great deal of volatility and in the process printed a higher high that followed the breach of the 17th October high. This morning USDJPY is trading within yesterdays large range in what is a quiet open.

As mentioned yesterday the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.

However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.

Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments

Yesterday Gold broke down from the tight trading range. This morning’s open has thus far been quiet.
We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.

Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 8th November 2013

DAILY OVERVIEW

Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday Oil traded lower after touching the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.

This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 2 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.

Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · Nov 11, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/11/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Friday was another wide range day which eventually closed lower. Although Friday’s price action managed to close beneath Thursday’s close there was not sufficient downside momentum for EURUSD to trade beneath the low of Thursday’s trading range. This morning’s open has thus far been quiet and within Fridays trading range.
This morning EURUSD has opened negatively. We are monitoring the price action for indications for continuation of the down trend that will allow for a move beneath 7th November low or a further correction off the V bottom that takes the price action to prior trend line support.
In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down.

However the move down did find support and with EURUSD now extended from its averages there is a possibility of further upside correction.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
On Friday GBPUSD retested trend line support but failed in its attempt to breach this area. This morning’s open has so far been quiet with the price action trading just above the trend line and with Fibonacci support.
On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading around the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5890 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Friday USDCHF made a further attempt to breach trend line resistance but was unable break above this area. However the price action did manage to close near the highs of its days range.
This morning’s open has thus far been quiet. We are monitoring the price action for signs that USDCHF will either make another attempt to retest trend line resistance or fall back to its overextended averages.
On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside.
However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction.
Intraday levels to watch are 0.9250 and 0.9105.
Macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where longs could potentially be added.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as the price action is extended there is potential for shorting opportunities back to the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Following Thursday 7th volatile day which printed both a higher high and lower close attention was focused on which way USDJPY would move and if the price action that followed confirmed the direction. Friday’s price action has given some confirmation that the printing of the higher high will lead to a new uptrend. Friday’s bar did in fact close strongly and near the top of its trading range and above positively layered averages. However Friday’s bar did not breach the 7th November high. We would want to see such a breach for further upside confirmation.
This morning USDJPY has opened slightly negatively but it is rather early in the session to extract any conclusions from this. Our main focuses of attention for today is can USDJPY trade above the 7th November high and then make an attempt in breaching the downward sloping trend line.
As mentioned in previous postings the potential increase in volatility was foreseen by the recent contraction of daily ranges. With USDJPY now breaching the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. An indication of a potential trend change was given by the higher low printed on the 25th October. If we now see an expansion of the daily ranges there is a possibility of a potential break of the downward sloping trend line that forms the upper limit of a large converging triangle.
However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support.
Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Friday Gold continued to trade lower following Thursdays break down from its trading range and the 8 period moving averages.
This morning’s open has thus far been quiet with the price action trading within Friday’s trading range.
We are monitoring the potential for a resumption of the down trend.
On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages.
Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 11th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
On Friday Oil continued to hug the 8 period moving averages. Approaches to this average can offer opportunities as a value area where shorts can potentially be added.
This morning Oil has opened quietly and within a 4 day range. We are monitoring the price action for signs that the down trend will resume.

The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area.
Intraday levels to watch are 95.40 and 93.50.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities.

Scenario 2
Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.

acfx · Nov 12, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/12/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Yesterday EURUSD experienced a corrective rally which saw it trade well within both Thursdays and Fridays ranges.
Intraday view
This morning’s EURUSD has opened with a downside break of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action being 1.3317 to 1.3475.
We are currently monitoring the price action for indications that EURUSD can trade and sustain a move either above the high or beneath the low of Friday’s range which was 1.3417 to 1.3437. Breaks of this range will have initial targets the low of the 7th November or upside targets of the 8 period moving averages and prior trend line support.
Trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be views as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. EURUSD was supported during the down move and with the price action now extended from the averages could be a catalyst for long side position traders to take advantage of the lower prices. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance or intraday swing failures could be potentially viewed as selling opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages there is a potential for further upside correction.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Long
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Intraday view
This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its overnight range and breached and trading well under trend line support. The possible projected maximum range based upon current price action being 1.5900 to 1.6038. We are currently monitoring a potential move down to the low of the 16th October at 1.5893.
Trade ideas
1. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013. If GBPUSD does continue to trade lower market participants looking for value on the long side of the market would potentially be looking at the double bottom area of 1.5893 with intraday swing failures of lower highs possibly offering opportunities to nibble on the long side.
2. However as GBPUSD continues to breach multiple trend lines and with the price action now trading deep into Fibonacci support it would appear that the route of least resistance is to the down side with the initial target being the 1.5893 swing low.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up that GBPUSD is extended from its averages could offer opportunities to take long positions. However as the current market sentiment is fairly negative one would best look for areas where this down move stalls on an intraday basis so that long positions could possibly be entered.
Scenario 2
Alternatively as GBPUSD has broken trend line support areas there is potential for a move that takes the price action back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Friday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move. Intraday corrections and swing high failures could potentially offer the entry opportunities to test the long side.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down and the price action is now extended from the averages which could lead a downside correction. Intraday swing low failures could possibly offer entry opportunities to the short side.
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Scenario 1
As there has been an upside break of the overnight range there is potential for a continuation of this move with the price action aiming for the target of last Thursday’s high.
Scenario 2
Alternatively the current intraday up trend could reverse following a failure to hold above a prior swing low.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 12th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up
Ambush Zone : -
Target 1 : -
Target 2 : -
Stop : -

Comments
Intraday
This morning session has exploded to the upside USDJPY touching the upper level of the converging triangle. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 99.09 to 99.80. As USDJPY is now trading at the extreme of its daily average range it would be interesting to see if the price action has enough energy left today to breach and sustain a move above the upper level of the converging triangle. A failure of an upside resistance break will open up the possibility of USDJPY trading a full average days range to the downside.
Trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as a daily average range has already been traded the conservative plays are to either wait for a pullback possibly to the 8 period moving averages before deciding to participate on the long side or allow for a break of the converging triangle top and trade the pullback by using a choice of one’s preferred entry techniques.
2. However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside. Now that the price action is trading at trend line resistance shorting opportunities may arise.
Scenario 1
As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support such as the 8 period moving averages could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities.
Scenario 2
Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to support with a swing low failure being the tipping point.

acfx · Nov 13, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/13/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 13th November 20133
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down

Comments
Yesterday EURUSD after initially trading lower reversed its direction and closed above the range of the previous two days.
Market open focus
This morning after initially trading higher off the open EURUSD has now reversed the small gains it made. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3360 to 1.3520.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where we are monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. A downside break could take EURUSD back into the previous two day’s trading range. The downside target for today is the area of yesterday’s low which is also in line the low of the projected maximum daily range at 1.3360.
2. Alternatively if EURUSD can penetrate and sustain a move above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move up to the bottom of the previously broken upward sloping trend line. This is a move of some 70 odd pips which is well within the upper limit of the projected maximum daily range at 1.3520.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short

Comments
Yesterday GBPUSD traded through the low of the 16th October. Although GBPUSD in the afternoon did manage to reverse some of its losses and closed and above the low of the 16th of October yesterdays move did however breach a prior swing low which effectively changes the daily trend from up to down.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has broken down from its European open and trading at the lows of its overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5815 to 1.5980.
Today’s scenarios
1. As I write GBP is trading in a very tight opening range around the 1.5880 to 1.5905 area. A down side break will need to test and breach yesterdays low which is some 35 pips away. If a sustained break of yesterdays low is achieved a move down to the lower level of one average daily range at 1.5815 could become a possibility.
2. Alternatively as GBPUSD is fairly extended from its averages there is potential for sideways to upside correction. The 8 period moving average and broken trend line support is some 115 pips away which is slightly above the upper limit of the projected maximum daily range of some 94 pips but this target is potentially achievable.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following yesterday’s breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Comments
Yesterday USDCHF traded down to the 8 period moving averages as the price action moved away from trend line resistance. However the price action has for the fourth day opened up and trading within last Thursday’s range.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF has traded within 10 pips either side of the European opening price and well with last night’s overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price being 0.9117 to 0.9220.

Today’s scenarios
1. This morning USDCHF has traded down to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for longs to be placed. The target any such move will be the high of the 7th November which is slightly above one average daily range of about 70 pips.
2. Alternatively the failure to break above the high of the four day range could lead to a breach of the 8 period moving averages. A potential move down could hit the target of the broken downward sloping trend line.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 13th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Comments
Yesterday USDJPY traded up to but stalled at converging triangle resistance. This move places the price action well within a possible Fibonacci resistance shorting area.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY broke lower from the open of the European session only to find support at the bottom of the overnight range. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price are 99.00 to 100.00.
Today’s scenarios
1. A breach and sustained move above trend line resistance puts in play a move to the upper level of the projected maximum daily range which is at the psychological 100 level.
2. Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to the 8 period moving averages. This would entail a move of some 80 pips which is slightly higher than the average daily range which is just under 70 pips.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. Yesterdays strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as the psychological 100 level is now in sight this barrier will have to be breached before both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels can be taken out.
2. Alternatively downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area and trend line resistance could offer a catalyst that pushes USDJPY back to trend line support.

acfx · Nov 14, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/14/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday EURUSD traded up to previously broken trend line support and closed above the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning EURUSD is trading slightly lower from its overnight high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3397 to 1.3562.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where we are monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of yesterday’s trading range which is also in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move of some 125 pips which is slightly above the projected average daily range of 100 pips.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday GBPUSD had a strong bounce following its penetration of the low of the 16th October. The corrective rally took GBPUSD up to its averages and on its way penetrated a previously broken up trend line. GBPUSD finally closed at a fairly recently formed downward sloping trend line.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD is trading slightly lower from its overnight high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5960 to 1.6125.
Today’s scenarios
1. GBP is currently trading in between the averages and at a downward sloping trend line. The area of the averages is a potential value area where shorts could possibly be entered. As the average true range is some 100 pips a down side break has the potential to erase up to 50% of yesterdays corrective rally.
2. Alternatively as GBPUSD has traded up to the averages, a break above them could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching the minor high pivot of the 6th November at 1.6117. This target is well inside the upper limit of today’s projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 14th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Comments
Yesterday USDCHF traded down to the 8 period moving averages as the price action moved away from trend line resistance. However the price action has for the fifth day opened up and trading within last Thursday’s range.
Market open focus
This morning CHFUSD is trading higher from its overnight low and is bouncing off both the 8 period moving averages as previously broken trend line resistance. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9100 to 0.9191.

Today’s scenarios
1. This morning USDCHF is finding support at the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for longs to be placed. The ultimate target for any such move will be the high of the 7th November which is two average daily ranges away from the overnight low. Therefore a breach of yesterday’s high might be a more conservative and achievable target.
2. Alternatively an intraday downside reversal could see USDCHF attempt to breach the low of the 7th November being the lower limit of the 5 day trading range.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 14th November 20133
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY traded lower off converging triangle resistance as it corrected back down to the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY is trading higher from its overnight low as it attempts to break above trend line resistance. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.00 to 100.00.
Today’s scenarios
1. The strong open has had the result that USDJPY has already traded an average daily range. This leads to two possibilities for the long side. That this morning’s move will soon pause as it runs out of energy or this will be a stellar up day for this currency pair. As posted yesterday a breach and sustained move above trend line resistance puts into play a move to the upper level of the projected maximum daily range which is at the psychological 100 level.
2. Alternatively both the Fibonacci resistance and upper trend line of the converging triangle could offer downside pressure that pushes USDJPY back to the 8 period moving averages. This would entail a move of some 80 pips which is slightly higher than the average daily range which is just under 70 pips.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. This morning’s strong open puts a potential break of the converging triangle to the upside sharply into focus. However as the psychological 100 level is now in sight this barrier will have to be breached before both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels can be taken out.
2. Alternatively downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area and trend line resistance could offer a catalyst that pushes USDJPY back to trend line support.

acfx · Nov 15, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/15/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday EURUSD once again traded up to but was unable to breach previously broken trend line support but did manage however to closed above the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
EURUSD has moved 44 pips lower from its overnight high and currently trading within a 20 pip congestion area and in the middle of yesterdays low to high range. I am currently monitoring a possible early morning up or downside break to the area of yesterdays previous high or low. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3388 to 1.3518.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 13th November trading range which is also in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from yesterday’s low of some 170 pips which allowing for an average daily range of 100 pips might not be achievable.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday after initially breaking down GBPUSD reversed off its lows and closed the day higher. In the process GBPUSD also penetrated and closed above the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD had traded some 50 pips lower from its overnight high but this move has since retraced with the price action slightly beneath yesterdays high and above this morning’s open. Furthermore GBPUSD is currently trading above the 34 period moving averages.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.5996 to 1.6091.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades near the previous day’s high resistance area. As we have already had a good 110 plus move from yesterday’s low which exceeds the current average true range reading it would be interesting to see if there GBPUSD has enough energy left to trade higher but the possibility of a further 70 pips to the upside is traded today from the current price of 1.6085 should not be ruled out.
2. However on the flip side GBPUSD has had a good up move. Therefore a failure to sustain a break above yesterday’s high could see GBPUSD once again breach trend line support but this time to the down side with the daily target being yesterday’s low at 1.5987.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDCHF reversed off it’s the previous day and its early morning low and traded substantially higher before collapsing at lunch time and paring most of its gains. However USDCHF did eventually close marginally higher.
The price action effectively has been whipping around the 8 period moving averages and bouncing of trend line support for the past two days.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF has been trading within a tight 15 pip congestion range and some 45 pips above yesterday afternoons low and 15 pips beneath yesterday’s high. A break above or beneath this congestion area should quickly lead to a move into previous day’s support and resistance.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9113 to 0.9205.

Today’s scenarios
1. This morning USDCHF continues to trade around the 8 period moving averages which a potential value area is for longs to be placed. A break above this morning congestion area will quickly lead to move into the area of the previous day’s high being 0.9176/0.9188. This area my initial point of interest as the previous day’s high will need to broken so as to allow for an upside move to happen. Allowing for the average true range calculation there is potential for at least a 30 pip move from the current level at 0.9172.

2. Alternatively break beneath this morning congestion zone puts in play a potential move to the previous days low.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of Thursday’s high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

acfx · Nov 18, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/18/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down

Yesterday’s summary
Friday EURUSD once again traded up to but was unable to breach previously broken trend line support but continues to trade above the 8 period moving averages.
Market open focus
EURUSD had attempted to trade under Friday’s high but has so far been unable to sustain this move. I am currently monitoring an initial attempt to breach Friday’s high. The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3400 to 1.3580.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 14th November trading range which is also just above the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from today’s low of some 104 pips which is in line with the high of today’s projected daily range.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 18th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short

Yesterday’s summary
Friday GBPUSD initially traded lower off the previous day’s high only for the down move to stall and consolidate before finally breaking higher later in the London session. GBPUSD closed the minor swing high of the 6th November and above both the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has breached Friday’s high but has just fallen back into the early morning range.

The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6040 to 1.6145.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades near the Friday’s high resistance area. The move so far off Friday’s low is some 97 pips. As the current average daily true range reading is around 100 pips it would be interesting to see if GBPUSD can break and sustain a move Friday’s high with the initial target being the large over head multi month trend line. A move to this level from the current price of 1.6130 would need a move of some 100 pips which might not be achievable today.
2. However on the flip side GBPUSD has had a good up move. Therefore a failure to sustain a break above Friday’s high could see GBPUSD once again trade back to trend line support.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720
Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 18th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Yesterday’s summary
Friday USDCHF initially traded up and traded above the previous day’s high only for the price action to reverse aggressively beneath the previous session intraday low. However USDCHF did experience a bounce off its low and finally closed just beneath the 8 period moving averages
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF has traded some 44 pips lower off its morning high as it moves towards prior broken trend line support.

The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9090 to 0.9190.
Today’s scenarios
1. Friday’s market negativity has continued into this morning’s session. If trend line can be breached today’s downside target is the 34 period moving averages which is slightly above the lower limit of the current daily average range.

2. Alternatively support can hold above the prior broken trend line there is a possibility that USDCHF trades back up to the previous session high.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The moving averages are now layered positively and the breach of trend line resistance and the invalidation of Fibonacci resistance and the negative RSI divergence give further confirmation to the upside. The price action is somewhat consolidating within a four day range. Therefore we would like to see a break of 13th November high and trend line resistance so as to give further confirmation to the up move with the initial target being the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 15th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Yesterday’s summary
Friday USDJPY opened strongly as it quickly broke above the previous sessions high. Apart from a minor early morning corrective pull back the upward momentum continued and at one point looked like breaching the 11th September swing high. This attempted however failed as USDJPY moderately corrected late in the London session
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY is trading a little under 50 pips lower from the Friday’s high which is also near to the previous session low area. We are monitoring this important intraday swing level for signs of support.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.70 to 100.60.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can find support and bounce off the previous session intraday low. This swing point is also in the area of the important 100 level with the current market price being 99.97. If support does hold I will monitor a possible up move at least to Friday’s high and then for USDJPY to make a further attempt at breaching the t11th September swing high level of 100.61. This move is well with the upper limit of average projected daily range.
2. Alternatively the 100 level is offering some resistance. If the previous sessions low is breached there is a possibility that USDJPY trades back to the top of broken converging triangle. This move is within the lower limit of the average projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels .
2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.

acfx · Nov 19, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/19/2013

Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Down

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday EURUSD did manage to breach the over head trend line resistance only for the price action to fall back and close higher but under this level.
Market open focus
This morning EURUSD has traded down some 50 pips from yesterday’s high but is trading well above yesterday’s low. I am currently monitoring if EURUSD will break higher and in gear with the intraday trend.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3439 to 1.3596.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded above to the 8 period moving averages which is a value area where I am monitoring the possibility that the market once more rotates to the downside. This is reinforced by the EURUSD now trading at previous broken support. A downside break could mean EURUSD test the low of the 15th November trading range which is in line with the low of today’s projected trading range.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has penetrated and closed above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. However the price action must first be able to penetrate current trend line resistance. Today’s upside target of the 34 period moving averages will require a move from today’s low of some 70 pips which is in within the upper limit of today’s projected high of the daily range.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. Furthermore the RSI positive divergence has been invalidated by the 7th November break down. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.

Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Short

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday GBPUSD experience a narrow range day with some 70 odd pips separating the high to the low. This is well below the daily average of 100 pips. GBPUSD continues to trade above the swing high of the 6th November and above both the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has open and is trading in the middle of yesterday’s range. We are monitoring a possible initial move to the high or low of this range.

The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6050 to 1.6180.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades in between yesterday’s range. As this morning’s range is fairly tight an upside breach of the overnight high of 1.6148 could see GBPUSD make an attempt at reaching the multi month downward sloping trend line. However this would entail a move of 140 odd pips from the overnight low and therefore this might not be achievable during today’s session.
2. Alternatively a break beneath yesterday’s low could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching trend line support. This move will be well within the projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDCHF traded and closed beneath Friday’s low following its attempt to breach trend line support. This move has taken USDCHF back into the area of between both positively layered averages.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF is trading within yesterday’s New York range in what has so far been a quiet open.

The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9070 to 0.9165.

Today’s scenarios
1. With the price action now trading within moving average support and at trend line support a break above the overnight high of 0.9142 could see USDCHF attempt to trade up to the 15th November high.

2. Alternatively a breach of the New York session low of 0.9095 could see USDCHF breach trend line support and trade down to the 34 period moving averages.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The price action is trading within the positively layered moving averages and above trend line support after what has been a substantial downside correction. An upside break would have initial target of the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.
Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 19th November 2013
DAILY OVERVIEW
Trend : Up

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY was unable to continue with its upward momentum as it broke beneath Friday’s low. However late in the session USDJPY did manage to correct somewhat and in the process the price action managed to close marginally above Friday’s low.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY has once again resumed its downward correction and has traded some 25 pips beneath yesterday’s low. I am monitoring price action to see if it can sustain a move beneath yesterday’s low.
The price action has move some 88 pips lower off the 15th November high. This exceeds a daily true range projection by some 18 pips. Therefore USDJPY may find it needs to retrace somewhat before moving lower. The upside project is 100.25.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can bounce off the trend line support with a resulting move taking the price action back up to at least the 100 level.

2. Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above the previous day’s low could see USDJPY trade back down to the area of the 13th November low at 99.10.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels.
2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.

acfx · Nov 20, 2013

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/20/2013
Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 20th November 2013

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday European open was initially positive as EURUSD traded marginally above the previous day’s high. However EURUSD reversed during the early morning session and tested but did not breach the previous day’s low. The holding of support gave EURUSD an opportunity to build a base from where it once again tested and this time breached intraday resistance. Ultimately EURUSD closed the day up and above trend line resistance.
Market open focus
The overnight session has seen EURUSD trade 33 pips above the previous day’s high. However the price action found resistance at the 34 period moving averages and has since retraced most of its gains and is now trading just above intraday support.
We are monitoring the price action around the overnight 1hour pivot high for an indication of today’s possible market direction with potential longs above 1.3580 and shorts beneath 1.3530.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.3480 to 1.3580.
Today’s scenarios
1. EURUSD has traded up to but found resistance at the 34 period moving averages. If the price action can hold beneath this average there is a possibility that EURUSD trades down to the previous day’s low which coincides with the 8 period moving averages.
2. Alternatively as EURUSD has now made an initial attempt to penetrate the 34 period moving averages so early in the session there is a possibility that a further attempt is made today to breach this level. However the move up from yesterday’s low are some 90 pips which equate to us around 1 daily average range. Therefore is a question mark on how much more energy EURUSD has left to continue the up thrust from here.
Macro trade Ideas
1. The breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend on a swing basis from up to down. This negative swing bias has been confirmed by multiple breaches of trend line support and the moving averages being layered negatively. As the dominant daily trend based on swing analysis is down corrective pullbacks especially to resistance areas could be viewed as potential value areas where shorts could be added.

2. However the weekly time frame continues to be swing positive. Therefore there is a possibility that the down trend on the daily chart is nothing more than a corrective sell off that brings the price action into potential value areas where long term swing position buy trades could be executed. It should also be noted that EURUSD has traded into a large Fibonacci support area where price action stalled and bounced. With this in mind there is potential for a substantial upside move that could bring the daily trend back into line with the weekly trend. This scenario is valid as long as EURUSD can trade above the 6th September swing long which comes in around the 1.3100 area.
The Macro Technical Targets
The upside targets are 1.3470, 1.3530, 1.3650, and 1.3830. The downside targets are 1.3300, 1.3200, 1.3100 and 1.2750.
Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th November 2013

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday GBPUSD experience another narrow range day with some 70 odd pips separating the high to the low. This is well below the daily average of 100 pips. GBPUSD continues to trade above the swing high of the 6th November and above both the downward sloping trend line and at the 34 period moving averages.
Market open focus
This morning GBPUSD has opened mixed and is trading in the middle of yesterday’s range.
We are monitoring a possible initial break of the high or low of this range.

The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 1.6040 to 1.6160.
Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring the price action as it now trades in between yesterday’s range. As this morning’s range is fairly tight an upside breach of the 18th November high of 1.6148 could see GBPUSD make an attempt at reaching the multi month downward sloping trend line. However this would entail a move of 140 odd pips from the overnight low and therefore this might not be achievable during today’s session.
2. Alternatively a break beneath yesterday’s low could see GBPUSD make an attempt at breaching trend line support. This move will be well within the projected daily range.
Macro trade ideas
1. Following the breach of the 16th October swing low the trend on a daily swing basis has changed from up to down. This move was preceded by multiple trend line breaks and the averages switching their bias from up to down. With the price action having also broken through Fibonacci support the down side is now very much in focus on the daily time frame. Conservative entry methods as a means to participate in the down move could be to wait for possible pullbacks to key value areas such as the 8 period moving averages and trend line resistance.
2. Alternatively as the weekly time frame continues to have a positive swing bias and with the price action on the daily time frame very much extended from the averages there is a possibility of a substantial upside correction.
Marco Technical Targets
1.6260, 1.6170, 1.5890, 1.5715, 1.5570, 1.5720

Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 20th November 2013

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDCHF open mixed but then experienced a modest up thrust but which failed to breach the prior session high. During the New York session USDCHF began to weaken and traded down and in the process breached and closed beneath the prior session low.
Market open focus
This morning USDCHF continued to follow the prior sessions lead and traded lower but has found support at the 34 period moving averages.

The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 0.9075 to 0.9145.

Today’s scenarios
1. USDCHF is now trading beneath yesterday’s session low but is finding support at the 34 period moving averages. If support can hold there is a possibility that USDCHF trades up to the previous sessions high.
2. Alternatively a breach of the overnight low could see USDCHF breach the 34 period moving averages.
Macro trade ideas
1. On a basis swing bases the trend is now positive following the breach of the prior isolated high. The price action is trading within the positively layered moving averages and above trend line support after what has been a substantial downside correction. An upside break would have initial target of the 9th September swing high at 0.9455.
2. However the weekly time frame continues to point down. Therefore a sustained breach of the 8 period moving averages puts into play a potential move to the 34 period moving averages.
Macro technical levels
The macro technical levels are 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200.

Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 20th November 2013

Yesterday’s summary
Yesterday USDJPY traded down to the 8 period moving averages where it found support at 99.56. Off support USDJPY traded higher and this led to an intraday one hour swing low pivot being printed. The up move off support continued with USDJPY printing an intraday higher low and high higher sequence. USDJPY finally closed day above the prior days high.
Market open focus
This morning USDJPY has opened and trading lower from yesterday’s session high. I am monitoring a potential move down to yesterday’s session intraday support level.
The possible projected maximum daily ranges based upon current price action are 99.50 to 100.60.

Today’s scenarios
1. I am currently monitoring if USDJPY can bounce off the trend line support with a resulting move taking the price action back up to at least the 100.60 level.

2. Alternatively a failure to sustain a move above the previous day’s high could see USDJPY trade back down yesterday’s session low.
Macro trade ideas
1. With USDJPY having breached the prior swing high of the 17th October has changed the trend on a swing bias to up. The change of the daily trend now puts the swing bias in line with the weekly trend. The breach of both the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level now puts in play potential moves to both 100.60 and 101.50 swing levels.
2. Alternatively failure to sustain a move above the downward sloping trend line and significant 100 level added to the downside pressure offered by the Fibonacci area could lead to USDJPY trading back deep into the prior triangle pattern.

Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

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