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London opening technical report 27.11.2014.
EURUSD
The macro technical view
The bullish feel to the bigger time frames continued yesterday with the double bottom scenario playing out on the 4 hour and daily charts.
Yesterday’s daily candle closed above the high of the range of the prior day’s range the momentum is currently to the upside the medium term upside target of 1.2885 being the swing high of October 15 still a realistic possibility.
I have shorter term upside targets at the 1.2615 and 1.2770 being prior swing pivots.
The intraday technical outlook
Dropping down the intraday chart the 1 hour time frame is currently trading in an uptrend with price action currently trading just above the 1.2500 support level.
Today’s intraday upside targets are 1.2570 and 1.2600.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.2500 level could see EURUSD target the 1.2445 level.
A breach of this level would mean that the price action would have traded under the prior swing low and therefore technically changes the 1 hour trend to down
This would open up the possibility of a mover down to the 1.2400 level.
GBPUSD
The macro technical view
The mini revival for Cable has pushed GBPUSD to the lofty heights of the 1.5800 big figure.
Yesterday I wrote about the potential of GBPUSD breaking above its 4 hour bullish triangle formation. This duly happened during yesterday’s trading.
With the 1.5800 level in touching distance the next obvious target level will become the 1.5835.
However the possibility does still remain that the bulls are being set up for a trap as a bearish ABC continuation pattern unfolds.
A move lower would aim to target the 1.5630 and 1.5590 levels which coincide with priors 4 hour swing low points.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart of GBPUSD did hit the initial target of 1.5800 with eyes now being focused on the potential move above this daily resistance point and for a move higher to 1.5835 and then 1.5920.
Alternatively a breach of the 1.5785 level opens up the possibility of a move down to 1.5740 and the 1.5715.
A successful test of the 1.5675 level would breach the prior higher low and change the trend from up to down.
USDJPY
The macro technical view
As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to take breather beneath the 119.00 level with this week’s price action consolidating within the range of last week’s candle.
In terms of the macro view we really need to see a weekly close above or beneath last week’s candle as an indication of the possible medium term direction.
The 4 hour trend is now also looking bearish with the price action now painting a lower low, lower high and lower low sequence.
It remains to be seen if this price pattern is the precursor of a tipping point that propels USDJPY down to the 117.00 where we have support coming in off the back of 4 hour swing high pivots.
However the scenario of a potential bullish ABC pattern does also exist and traders will need to watch out for possible upside breakaways from the current 4 hour down trend.
The intraday technical outlook
Taking a look at the 1 hour time frame USDJPY has now breached and is trading under the 117.65 level which coincided with a higher low swing. This has effectively changed the trend from up to down.
USDJPY as I write is testing the 117.35 level. A continuation lower could see USDJPY trade down to the 117.05 and then the 116.30 levels.
Alternatively a bounce off support could potentially see USDJPY test the 117.65 level with a continuation and breach of the 118.30 level technically changing the trend from down to up.
USDCHF
The macro technical view
Yesterday I asked the question “is USDCHF” looking toppish”?
Well going by the price action over the past three days and the inability to climb above the 0.9745 does seem to confirm this scenario.
If USDCHF can now trade under the 0.9530 level, the price action would have painted a lower high and lower low swing. This would technically change the daily trend from up to down for the first time in what has been a very long period of weakness for the Swiss Franc.
The intraday technical outlook
As posted yesterday the close under the 0.9660 level being the prior swing low level has technically changed the trend to down.
The price targets of 0.9630 and 0.9605 where both hit during yesterday’s trading
With the price action now hovering above the 0.9605 levels and successful penetration of support would open up the possibility of a move down to the 0.9550 and 0.9530 levels.
Alternatively a rejection of lower prices could potentially see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9630.
A successful test of the 0.9665 level would breach the prior lower high and turn the 1 hour trend from down to up.
AUDUSD
The macro technical view
This morning’s positive and unexpected market data release has propelled AUDUSD higher during the Tokyo and early into the European sessions.
However the daily trend does look horribly down and to try and bet on a bottom being put in off one piece of good data could be a little premature if one was to look at the strength of the daily down trend.
Yesterday I wrote about the monthly chart and the formation of a large head and shoulders scenario that potentially targets the 0.8065 level.
The possibility of this happening does not go away.
For the longer term bulls to gain any confidence in a rival of the Aussie Dollar we really need to see a breach of a lower high swing on the 4 hour chart.
With the current last isolated 4 hour high coming in at the 0.8725 level for this to happen needs a lot more buyers of the Australian Dollar to enter into the market.
The intraday technical outlook
The 1 hour chart has today given us our lower high breach with the 0.8565 broken during the Australian session.
Confirmation that the 1 hour up trend is in good health would require the formation of a higher lower and for the price action to stay above the 0.8480 level.
The current upside targets are 0.8650 and 0.8695.
Alternatively a test of the 0.8600 support level could see AUDUSD test the 0.8565 and 0.8535 levels.
A breach of the 0.8480 level would change the 1 hour trend from up to down.
GOLD
The macro technical view
As per my prior posts Gold is trading in daily down trend however the recent price action has seen the price action experience somewhat of a strong corrective rally.
This has prompted some market analysts to predict that the down trend in Gold maybe coming to an end.
Technically although the recent up move in XAUUSD has been impressive the daily trend continues to point stubbornly down and this retracement has done nothing more than push back Gold to an area of Fibonacci resistance and a zone for potentially shorting this metal.
However that the recent price action has been bullish and to ignore this strong pullback would probably be a mistake. Especially if one was to consider the opportunities that present themselves on the intraday time frame.
Looking at the weekly time frame this week’s price action has been trading within the previous week’s price action.
A move away from the 1209.00 and 1175.00 being last week’s candle range should give us more clues about the longer term price momentum for Gold.
The 4 hour medium term chart is still trading in an uptrend. As long as the price action can hold above the 1174.50 level being the last isolated 4 hour swing low the bullish scenario remains intact.
The intraday technical outlook
On a 1 hour basis the breach of the 1192.50 level has changed the trend for XAUUSD technically from up to down.
The current downside targets are 1186.50 and 1181.00.
Alternatively a test and close above the 1203.00 level being the prior isolated 1 hour swing high would turn the trend back to up.
We have a further upside target at the 1208.00 level
OIL
The macro technical view
The OPEC is finally here. As mentioned in my introduction the Oil news is not that straight forward with geopolitical issues dominating and the impact of USA domestic production causing a glut in the market.
I know it is rather difficult but let’s discount the news as it is very hard to trade off secret meetings and handshakes behind closed doors and just stick to technical’s.
If you pick any time frame from the 4 hour up to the monthly all you see is a strong down trend.
It is fairly obvious that at the present moment that trying to pick a medium to long term bullish argument is a very hard task.
The longer term level I am looking at is the 67.00 level which is the 2010 low. This being potentially a longer term price target and place where possibility of support coming into the market.
The intraday technical outlook
On an intraday basis the 1 hour chart continues to be very bearish with 1 hour line of control at 74.45and downside targets at the 71.50 and 69.50 levels.
Alternatively upside resistance can be found at the 73.3 and 73.60 levels.
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