Daily Forex Analysis by Orbex

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/08/2016

The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting today will be the big event as the markets brace for a rate cut. What will determine the price action in GBPUSD will be how much the BoE can loosen monetary policy, which if disappoints could see a strong short squeeze that could shake out the weak short positions at the current levels. Watch for GBPUSD's breakout above $1.34, while $1.28 remains the lower end of the range.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1143): EURUSD closed bearish following the retest to 1.120 and gave up Tuesday's gains completely. Interestingly, following the upside breakout from the inside bar previously noted, the Tuesday/Wednesday price action in EURUSD has perhaps caught a lot of weak long positions on the wrong side of the market. A close below 1.11492 is essential to confirm the move to the downside, where support at 1.110 - 1.1076 is likely to be targeted. Looking at the Stochastics on the 4-hour time frame, the lower low in Stochs compared to the higher low in price is likely to see some near term bounce to the upside on a dip to 1.110 - 1.076.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.23): USDJPY broke down below the 102 support, but the declines have been limited so far. The daily chart shows a potential for price to recover from current lows on a close back above 102.00. However, the 4-hour chart still hasn't signaled any upside bias just as yet. Following the low formed below 101, USDJPY needs to bounce off the current level to form a higher low on the pullback. As such, watch for 102 level acting as resistance in the near term. A confirmed break down below 101 could see USDJPY extend declines to 100.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.332): GBPUSD remains firmly above 1.32 despite yesterday's price action being fairly limited. With today's BoE meeting on the horizon, GBPUSD could see some volatility led price moves. Watch for a pullback to the support at 1.32 as the upside bias is likely to continue on a breakout above 1.34 - 1.3488, which would mark the inverse head and shoulders pattern breakout, targeting 1.38 and potentially to 1.40. To the downside, a break down below 1.32 - 1.30 could signal further declines in GBPUSD to 1.280 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1351.12): Gold prices were bearish yesterday but formed an inside bar near the 1360 top. A close below yesterday's low at 1347.20 will confirm near term declines with support at 1315.20 - 1300 likely to stall the declines in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, there is a potential for gold prices to retest the 1355 - 1357 price level to test for resistance before declining further. On the intraday basis watch for gold to hold up near 1341.85 - 1340 support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/08/2016

July's nonfarm payrolls report will be the main calendar event to watch for today. A positive beat on expectations will most likely induce dollar buying putting the recent rally in USD crosses at the risk of a correction. Gold prices recovered their losses from the previous days and remain trading back near the 1365 handle, but poses a risk of a correction to the downside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1134): EURUSD closed at 1.1128 yesterday, just above the 1.110 support level. We expect the 1.110 support to be tested, and the downside will be limited until this level breaks convincingly. On the 4-hour chart following the fake upside breakout above 1.11972, EURUSD eventually closed below 1.11493 with the bias open for a test to 1.110 - 1.1076 support zone. Further declines can be expected below this support zone, in which case, 1.10 remains open for a retest of support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.12): USDJPY closed with a doji candlestick pattern yesterday which could either signal a near-term correction to the upside or a continuation. The 100.00 psychological price level will be an important support to the downside, while 102 needs to give way as resistance in order for the dollar to extend gains towards 104. On the 4-hour chart following the fresh lows that were posted near 100.684, USDJPY bounced higher. A higher low near 101 could, however, signal an early change of the short-term trend. Still, watch for 102.00 which remain as a strong resistance.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.313): GBPUSD broke down below 1.32 yesterday with prices showing a minor recovery in early Asian trading today. But a daily bullish close will be required for confirmation. In the meantime, GBPUSD is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern near the current lows which indicates that price could either break down below 1.30 for a continuation of the downtrend, or an upside breakout above 1.34 which will see price correct towards 1.36 and 1.38 eventually. On the 4-hour chart, although the inverse head and shoulder is still in play, the pattern is looking increasingly weaker. A close below 1.30 will invalidate any bullish bias.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1362.56): Gold prices recovered following Wednesday's declines, but price remains within the inside bar's range of 1367.32 and 1347.20. Breakout from the inside bar range will likely signal the near term bias in prices. Main support is seen at 1315 - 1300 while to the upside; support at 1360 will need to be established ahead of posting further gains. On the 4-hour chart, gold's price action is showing a broadening wedge pattern with a retest to 1365 pending. A reversal near 1365 could potentially send gold prices lower following the breakout of the trend line. Watch for 1348 - 1350 support followed by 1341 - 1340 support to the downside.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 08/08/2016

The US dollar is likely to extend its gains after Friday's payrolls report. The economic data remains light today with no major releases in sight. Expect to see a minor pullback in the US dollar before the rally from last Friday resumes. USDJPY is likely to test the minor support at 102.50 while Gold prices could see a short-term correction to 1347.50 - 1350.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1102): EURUSD closed below 1.110 on Friday and price action is likely to continue to the downside, following the hidden bearish divergence that formed earlier on the daily chart. Support is seen at 1.10, and further downside can be expected only on a close below this level. Any short-term corrections to the upside will be limited to 1.110 - 1.1150.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.02): USDJPY closed Friday on a bullish note following Thursday's doji pattern. The daily chart shows a higher low being formed last week and the bullish bias could still be validated if the price can close above 102 on a daily session. On the 4-hour chart, there is a hidden bearish divergence that has formed, which could indicate USDJPY staying range bound within 102 - 101 levels in the near term. A breakout from either of these levels could signal further direction.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.308): GBPUSD has broken to the downside following last week's price action on Thursday/Friday. The weekly chart continues to show price ranging sideways now into four weeks of completion. The 4-hour chart shows GBPUSD trading within 1.32 - 1.30 support level. The inverse head and shoulders continues to evolve at the current level but would be invalidated on a close towards 1.280.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1337.31): Gold prices broke out from the inside bar range last week as price closed below 1347.20. Any correction to 1347.20 offers a good level to stay on the short side, targeting 1315 - 1300 support. On the 4-hour chart, the hidden bullish divergence has formed near June 27/28 highs of 1341 - 1340 levels and a reversal from here could see gold push back towards 1350 or 1347.20 level. The bias remains to the downside and could be validated if resistance is established near 1350 - 1347 and gold prices could be looking to close lower towards 1327.50 over the week.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 09/08/2016

The US dollar managed to maintain its gains from Friday, but price action on Monday was limited with a lack of any major scheduled events. Still, the bias remains in favor of the US dollar, although there is potential for prices to post a minor correction. Gold prices could be seen sliding to the support near 1327.50 while USDJPY could extend gains to 104 following the break above 102.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.108): The price action in EURUSD was quite limited with price testing 1.110 briefly. The bias in EURUSD remains to the downside with the likelihood of a test towards 1.10 support. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD has remained flat, trading within the minor support/resistance zone of 1.110 - 1.1076. As long as prices remain capped near this level, the downside to 1.10 is quite likely.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.36): USDJPY has managed to close above 102 yesterday, and the upside is likely to prevail for a move to 104. On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY has formed a hidden bearish divergence, and the downside is likely to see a retest to 102 - 101.55. A break down below 101.55 could potentially see USDJPY turn bearish with a test back to previous lows of 101, while to the upside, establishing support near 101.55 - 102 could see USDJPY push higher towards 104 and eventually to 105.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.299): GBPUSD has broken out from the symmetrical triangle and prices were seen testing 1.30 support following the breakdown of prices from the inside bar that was formed on Monday. Price action on the 4-hour chart is trading within 1.32 - 1.30 price zone. To the downside, GBPUSD could potentially test 1.28 although price action is likely to remain trading flat within 1.30 - 1.32 for the near term.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1333.64): Gold was seen trading flat yesterday with price action staying fairly limited. Price is seen consolidation within 1340 - 1330 levels opening up the possibility for gold to test support near 1327.50. Resistance, to the upside, is now seen at 1341 - 1340 and further upside, back towards 1350 can be expected only on a strong break out above the immediate resistance level. In the near term, gold prices are likely to remain range bound within 1340 - 1327.50 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 10/08/2016

The US dollar turned weaker for the second day after just last week price posted a strong rally led by Friday's payrolls report. Earlier this week, we noted that the dollar could be posting a pullback and the current declines could be just that, but comes at a risk of accelerating the declines if the US dollar closes bearish on the daily session.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.115): EURUSD reversed the declines and closed back above 1.110 with prices seen testing 1.115 earlier today. Quite likely that EURUSD could remain range bound within the stronger resistance of 1.120 and 1.110 support in the near term. The bias remains to the downside, with 1.110 price level likely to be tested once again for further declines to 1.10. To the upside, a close above 1.115 could signal sideways pattern within 1.120 and 1.115. Further gains can be expected only on a strong close above 1.120 - 1.1240.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.33): USDJPY is currently seen testing the 102 support level and trading near the previous lows formed at 101. A daily close below 101 with conviction could see USDJPY turn weaker for a move back to the 100 level. On the 4-hour chart, following the hidden bearish divergence, price action is currently showing a bullish divergence that is still evolving. A higher low on the Stochastics is required for USDJPY to post a correction to the upside, following price reversal near 102 - 101.55.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.306): GBPUSD fell to 1.30 and is seen bouncing off this level. The upside momentum could signal a move to retest 1.32 which marks the breakout level from the symmetrical triangle formed on the daily chart. On the 4-hour chart, price action shows GBPUSD moving within a falling wedge pattern that is still evolving. Expect some near-term consolidation ahead of a retest to 1.32 to establish resistance.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1350.39): Gold prices reversed the previous losses with price rallying back to the 1350 handle. This marks a retest of the breakout from the rising median line, although we can expect price action to possibly rally towards 1355 - 1356 region. The bias remains to the downside, however, but this view could change if price continues to rally above 1355 - 1356. To the downside, 1341 - 1340 remains a key support level that needs to be cleared for any expectations of a correction to the downside towards 1327.50.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 11/08/2016

The recent rally in gold saw price retesting the 1350 - 1355 resistance level, which could now signal a near term dip to 1327.50 on a bearish continuation. The further downside can be seen only on a breakdown below this short-term support level, for a move to 1315 - 1300. GBPUSD gave back the gains yesterday closing back above 1.30 handle, but there is a possibility for the price to rally back to 1.32 in the near term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.116): EURUSD posted a third day straight of gain yesterday, but price action was short of 1.120. Further upside is seen only on a daily close above 1.120, in which case EURUSD could be eyeing for 1.130. However, it is quite likely to expect the price to remain range bound within the current levels with the possibility of a dip back to 1.110. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD is seen trading within the rising median line and resistance at 1.1240 - 1.120 remains a key level of interest, which could see further upside is EURUSD manages to clear the resistance.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.42): USDJPY slipped below 102 support and remains trading within the 101 - 102 support level. A breakdown of prices below 101 could signal further weakness in USDJPY which could see prices test the next low at 100. To the upside, a close above 102 is essential for prices to rally towards 104. On the 4-hour chart, following the hidden bearish divergence, we can expect prices to move higher with the Stochastics posting a higher low, compared to the lows formed near the 104 level, subject to USDJPY clearing the resistance near 102 - 101.42.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.300): GBPUSD failed to keep up its gains with prices falling back to 1.30 support. The falling wedge pattern remains in play and with prices currently consolidating near 1.30, we could expect to see GBPUSD potentially retrace the declines to retest 1.320 on a break out to the upside. A close below 1.30 and below August 9th lows of 1.2956 could invalidate the bullish view and pave the way for GBPUSD declines to 1.280.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1342.79): Gold prices rallied to the 1347.20 level and posted a high near 1357.32. A bearish close today below yesterday's lows of 1340.20 could signal further declines to the downside. Support is seen near 1315 - 1300. On the 4-hour chart, the retracement seen over the past few days marks a retest of the breakout near 1355 - 1350 levels. Thus a continuation to the downside is quite likely. Watch for short-term support at 1327.50 followed by 1300 if the support breaks down.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/08/2016

The US dollar index managed to close bullish yesterday, forming an inside bar in the process. A break out from this level could signal further gains or declines, with the bias staying neutral for the moment. Gold prices were seen retesting the $1350 handle, but failure to keep the gains saw gold prices closing bearish. Watch for 1327.50 to the downside. EURUSD has also turned bearish yesterday, and 1.110 will be essential as a break down below 1.110 could signal further declines to 1.10 support.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.113): EURUSD was bearish yesterday following the previous day's gains. The reversal which was short of retesting 1.120 resistance saw price close at 1.1137. The further downside could be expected with 1.110 now likely to act as support. A break below 1.110 support could signal further declines to 1.10. On the 4-hour chart price action is seen breaking down from the rising median line. A retest to 1.1150 is possible. If resistance is established here we can anticipate EURUSD to slide to 1.110 and eventually to break down to 1.10 support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.04): USDJPY is seen retesting 102 resistance level following a higher low that was formed yesterday. The bullish divergence on the daily chart could signal a longer term correction towards 108, but near-term resistance levels at 104 and 106 will need to be cleared. On the 4-hour chart, Price action is seen currently trading above 102, but the support zone near 101.55 - 102.00 could remain in play. As long as USDJPY does not break down below 101.55, the bias remains to the upside for a test to 104.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.2960): GBPUSD closed below 1.30, and the bearish follow through yesterday which comes after the doji close signals further weakness that could persist. On the 4-hour chart, however, we notice the Stochastics forming a higher low against the current lower low in price, which could signify a near-term correction. Still, 1.30 needs to be cleared which could act as resistance for any hopes of a correction. Above 1.30, GBPUSD could be seen testing 1.32 - 1.317 resistance.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1338.42): Gold prices retested 1347 - 1350 handle yesterday, but prices closed bearish at 1338.85. We could, therefore, expect to see the declines coming through in the near term. Support at 1327.50 will be an important level of note, and bounce off this level could signal gold prices to move in a sideways pattern between 1340 resistance. Only a confirmed break below 1327.50 will signal further downside for prices to test 1315 - 1300 support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 16/08/2016

EURUSD remained to trade in a range with prices seen re-testing 1.120 handle earlier today. Today's US consumer inflation report and US building permits and housing starts will be the key events that could shape the near-term bias. Gold prices were also seen rallying back to the 1347 - 1350 resistance level with further momentum likely to come in after the US economic releases. For the British pound, today's inflation report will show how consumer prices fared, for the whole month following the Brexit vote.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.120): EURUSD was seen retesting the 1.120 handle yesterday with today's price action seen bullish near the resistance level. 1.124 - 1.120 will be of importance heading into today's US economic releases. A weak print on consumer inflation could see the FOMC minutes likely to be ignored as markets scale back bets for a September rate hike. On the other hand stronger than expected inflation report could see the euro pare gains with 1.120 being established as resistance. 1.1150 remains the short-term support level that could halt the declines in the near term.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.48): USDJPY is seen extending the declines with prices likely to test 100.00 support after closing in a small range yesterday. The declines to the psychological level of 100.00 could be tested, but a pullback to 101.00 cannot be ruled out. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics remains lower bound near the oversold levels, and unless there is some evidence of prices pulling back, USDJPY could remain weaker.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.2908): GBPUSD is posting a a minor bounce near 1.290, but the CPI report is likely to add further momentum, which could either see GBPUSD continue to slide towards 1.280 or post a correction towards 1.30. On the 4-hour chart, price action remains weak with the Stochastics staying in the oversold levels. However, the doji pattern near the bottom end of the decline could see some near-term correction take place. 1.295 will be the first resistance level of interest, and a break higher could see GBPUSD test 1.30.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1346.50): Gold prices are moving in a range from Friday's session with price action today seen retesting the 1347 - 1350 handle. Further upside could be seen only on a daily bullish close above 1347 - 1350, in which case gold prices could be seen establishing new highs. To the downside, 1340 - 1341 support has managed to hold the prices resulting in a reversal. A break down below this support level is essential for gold prices to slide towards 1327.50. Expect gold prices to remain range bound with the FOMC meeting minutes likely to add to the bias.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 17/08/2016

The ICE Futures US dollar index fell over 0.87% yesterday with the declines gaining traction following weak consumer inflation report. EURUSD surged to test 1.130 while USDJPY fell to 100.00 but prices were rejected towards the end of the day. The markets focus today will be the FOMC meeting minutes, but it is hard to expect the dollar to react much to the report.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.126): EURUSD rallied yesterday to 1.130 but failed to close higher and instead pulled back to close the day at 1.1278. The currency pair is likely to remain range bound within 1.130 and 1.120 which could act as the new support. The hidden bearish divergence formed between the higher closes at 1.1387 on 23/06 and yesterday's close at 1.1278 could see prices biased to the downside, on the daily chart. On the 4-hour chart, we see multiple instances of bearish divergence with support levels at 1.120, 1.115 and 1.110.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.83): USDJPY touched down to the psychological support level at 100.00 yesterday, but prices were quickly rejected, sending USDJPY to close at 100.311. On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is seen moving within the falling price channel currently challenging the resistance level at 100.69. A breakout above 100.69 could signal a break of the resistance level and could send USDJPY to test 102.00. To the downside, failure near 100.69 could keep USDJPY range bound above 100.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3030): GBPUSD posted a strong reversal off the lows near 1.288 yesterday. The bullish engulfing candle managed to close above 1.30 and any near-term dips could remain supported near 1.30. On the 4-hour chart GBPUSD finally broke out from the consolidating falling wedge pattern having cleared the resistance levels near 1.295 and 1.30. However, the 4-hour chart shows the hidden bearish divergence against the lower high in GBPUSD, which could see a dip towards 1.2950. Forming a higher low here could signal a larger correction in GBPUSD towards 1.3170.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1342.64): Gold prices continue to breakout above 1350 - 1347 resistance level with the retest occurring four times as of yesterday. Failure to breakout above this resistance level is likely to keep gold prices subdued for a test towards 1315 - 1300 support zone. Short term support at 1341 - 1340 could keep prices supported in the near term, but a breakdown below this level could confirm a decline in gold prices towards 1327.50 ahead of a further dip to 1315 - 1300 level. A breakout above 1350 - 1347, however, could see gold prices potentially test the previous highs near 1365.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 24/08/2016

The US dollar was seen making attempts to recover some of its losses like yesterday's new home sales data posted a solid month of growth. However, a strong recovery is questionable ahead of the other important events coming up later in the week. More importantly, Friday's speech from Janet Yellen will be the big event to watch for. In the mean time, with EURUSD failing to keep its gains and the inside bar formed earlier, we expect the single currency could fall back to 1.120 to establish support.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.129): EURUSD tested session highs to 1.13550 yesterday but failing to build on its gains, prices closed bearish towards the end of the day yesterday. Still, price action remains within the inside bar's range with 1.130 now playing a key role. A confirmed bearish breakout below 1.130 could signal a move to the downside with 1.120 support coming into the picture. On the 4-hour chart, the resistance is seen at 1.1341 which has kept a lid on the rally following EURUSD testing this level twice so far. The breakout from the rising median line could signal EURUSD's decline to 1.1240 - 1.120 support zone. This is also validated by the bearish divergence.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.36): USDJPY remains hovering near the 100.00 support level with price action staying muted. On the 4-hour chart, following the test of resistance near 101.00 - 100.50 and the testback to the support at 100.00, further upside is seen only above 101.00 - 100.50 for a move towards 102.00. With the US dollar looking a tad stronger, USDJPY could possibly break out above this resistance level in the next couple of daily sessions.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.317): GBPUSD is seen testing 1.320 resistance level following the inside bar formed on Monday. A bullish close above the high of 1.31856 could signal further upside to 1.34 resistance. On the 4-hour chart, price action is currently in the resistance zone of 1.32 - 1.3170. Therefore, a convincing close on the 4-hour chart above 1.32 could trigger a further upside to 1.336 - 1.335 marking the previous high formed in early August. In the event that GBPUSD fails near the current resistance, the downside could accelerate to test the previous support at 1.30, which could invalidate the daily session's inside bar bullish bias.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1337.06): Gold prices remain trading below the 1347.20 - 1360 resistance level with price action staying subdued. It is quite likely that prices will slide to 1315 - 1300 support zone before we can expect any meaningful rally above $1360. On the 4-hour session, gold is trading flat within 1340 and 1327.50 levels of resistance and support. The further downside can be seen on a confirmed close below 1327.50 towards the 1300 mark.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 25/08/2016

USDJPY has been caught within the inside bar range for nearly 6 straight days and is indicative of a strong breakout in the making. With traders preparing for Friday's speech by Janet Yellen, it could very well be the catalyst needed for USDJPY. Meanwhile, EURUSD continues to drift lower as we maintain the downside bias for a test to 1.1200 heading into Friday's big event.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1270): EURUSD closed bearish yesterday with the breakout from the inside bar's low of 1.1284 confirming the downside. Support at 1.1200 is now in sight. Any pullbacks could be limited to the inside bar's low of 1.1284 through 1.1300. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the Stochastics currently in the oversold area following the downside breakout below 1.1300 which confirms the view that EURUSD could see a short-term/intraday bounce to the upside. Support is seen at 1.12400 on the smaller time frame while 1.1200 remains the main support of interest.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.47): USDJPY continues to remain muted with price seen trading strongly inside the range of 101.16 - 100.038, set on 17 August. We maintain the view that 100.50 - 101.00 needs to be cleared in order for USDJPY to see any hopes of a test to 102.00 - 103.00 region. To the downside, support at 100.00 seems to hold prices for now.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3225): GBPUSD extended the gains to 1.3200, but the daily chart shows a potential hidden bearish divergence near this level. This could mean that GBPUSD could post a minor correction back to 1.3000 to establish support provided GBPUSD can break down below 1.3200 - 1.31700 level which is now likely to hold prices. On the 4-hour chart there are no clear indications just as yet but watch for a possible bearish divergence on the Stochastics to confirm this view.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1326.00): Gold prices closed at 1324.16 yesterday with price currently at the minor support of 1327.50. In the near term, we can expect gold prices to post a modest bounce to the upside, back to the 1332 - 1335 region. However, the bias remains to the downside for a test to 1300. The bearish view changes only if gold prices manage to post a bullish close above 1332 - 1335, in which case a retest back to 1350 cannot be ruled out.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 26/08/2016

The technical outlook for the US dollar, hints to a near term bullish strength, validated by the bearish outlook in gold, GBPUSD, and EURUSD. While USDJPY has been trading flat, we could expect the price to test 102 and 104 in the near term. Today's US GDP revisions and Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium are the main event risks for the day.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1291): EURUSD is currently attempting to retest the price zone near 1.1300 with prices trading within Thursday's range of high and low forming an inside bar. A potential breakout from here is quite likely as a result. On the 4-hour chart, after prices broke down from the rising median line, we see a retracement back to the breakout level which comes in near 1.1300. While the bearish divergence remains in play, the correction in EURUSD remains short lived as a retest to 1.1200 remains on the cards.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.46): USDJPY remains flat for another day, but this could soon be changing. The price zone near 100.50 - 100.00 remains of immediate interest which could give way for the price to test 102.00 which forms the initial resistance level. The re-adjusted pattern on the 4-hour time frame shows the descending triangle which has broken to the upside, but being capped near 100.50 - 100.00. To the downside, a daily close below 100.00 could invalidate this pattern and expose USDJPY to further downside.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3209): GBPUSD is trading near the 1.3200 with the daily Stochastics showing a hidden bearish divergence on the lower high in prices and a higher high on the oscillator. This hints to a potential downside in GBPUSD towards 1.3000. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD failed to build on its gains above 1.3200 - 1.31700 and with price breakout from the rising median line, we can expect to see a break down towards 1.3000 - 1.2950 in the event that the resistance gives way. Watch for a potential lower high above 1.3200 for initial clues ahead of the dip to 1.3000.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1324.60): Gold prices fell to 1322 region yesterday after the hourly chart shows a breakdown in the descending triangle pattern. The declines marked a completion to 161.8% of the measured move, and the current pullback could see a retest of the broken support near 1335 - 1332. On the 4-hour chart, 1327.50 which previously served as support could now be tested for resistance. However, expect further upside to 1335 - 1332 if price forms a higher low. The correction is likely to stall near this level ahead of further declines to 1300.00.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 29/08/2016

The US dollar posted strong gains on Friday in what was mostly a volatile and a mixed reaction. By Friday's close, the US dollar managed to close bullish, but that strong momentum is likely to fade in the near term. Today's main event risk is the monthly PCE data which could be the trigger if data fails to beat expectations. Most of the USD crosses are likely to see a pullback, but the near-term bias remains to the downside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1201): EURUSD posted strong declines on Friday as prices touched down to 1.1200 as noted in our commentary earlier this week. Support at 1.1200 remains strong based on the confluence with the round number support and the rising median line on the daily chart. On the 4-hour time frame, price action is in sync with the bearish divergence that we noted after the Stochastics failed to confirm the higher high near 1.1341. Based on the expectation that 1.1200 will offer support, EURUSD could be seen retracing its losses, with minor resistance seen at 1.1270 - 1.1281. The pull back to this level should help the euro set up for further declines down to 1.1150. The bearish view changes hands on a convincing daily close above 1.1281 supported by a bullish candlestick pattern. Note that the weekly session has closed in an inside bar with a range of 1.1366 and 1.1153, making prices vulnerable to a breakout in either direction.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.18): USDJPY closed at 101.78 on Friday, finally breaking out from the range high of 101.29 set on August 16. Resistance at 102.00 is likely to keep prices capped in the near term although USDJPY is seen currently trading near this level. Further upside can be seen only on a convincing close above 102.00. On the weekly chart, the bullish pattern is seen with a higher low formed last week. To the upside, above 102.00, expect USDJPY to eventually test resistance at 106.00. On the 4-hour chart, we can see a possible pullback to 101.00 - 100.66 ahead of the longer-term move to 106.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3128): The price action in GBPUSD on Friday saw a downside breakout from the inside bar formed earlier last week and coincides with the resistance level of 1.3200. This is further validated by a hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart as well with the Stochastics posting a higher high against the lower high in price. On the 4-hour chart, resistance is now seen at 1.3170 which could see GBPUSD pull back to. However, the downside target to 1.300 remains in sight. The pullback is validated by the fact that GBPUSD broke down from the previous rising median line followed by a break of the Hagopian line as well. Watch for near term consolidation near 1.3200 - 1.3170 ahead of further declines to 1.3000.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1317.95): Gold prices were volatile and closed Friday in a doji pattern, but the weekly price action closed with the strong bearish sentiment. Price is seen supported by the lower median line on the daily chart, just a few points above 1315 - 1300 support level. On the 4-hour chart, the resistance at 1331.30 - 1327.50 has been tested and seen by strong price rejection. Gold prices could, therefore, extend their declines to 1300 over the coming days but not ruling out another retest back to 1331.30 - 1327.50 resistance zone.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 30/08/2016

July's PCE and consumer spending data came out mostly in line with estimates which managed to keep the dollar supported from Friday's Jackson Hole rally. However, the technicals on the intraday charts point to a near term correction in prices, which could put weak/new positions at risk. Watch for the pull back across EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD which is likely to see renewed momentum build up as the short-term US dollar strength persists.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1172): EURUSD closed with a doji candlestick pattern yesterday, and its significance increases as the indecision comes after a few sessions of strong declines. On the 1-hour chart, we see a strong case for a bullish divergence with the Stochastics printing a higher low against the current lower low in price. This indicates a near-term correction towards 1.1270 - 1.1281 resistance level that needs to be validated to support the basis for further declines. To the downside 1.1150 remains the target in sight. Watch for a possible upside breakout above 1.1200 resistance for the correction to be triggered, while to the downside 1.1150 could see the downside target being reached while at the same time offering a potential support level for prices.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.05): USDJPY moved in a very small range yesterday following the strong bullish candlestick from Friday. Prices are seen struggling near 102.00 resistance level indicative of a near term correction. The 1-hour chart on USDJPY is flashing a bearish divergence above 102.00 and points to a dip in USDJPY towards 101.00 - 100.80 support level that could be tested. As the bias remains to the upside, a retest of this support level could signal further upside towards 104.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3084): GBPUSD closed in a doji pattern yesterday with price seen caught within 1.3200 and 1.3000 levels. The price action on the 1-hour chart is similar to that of EURUSD which signals a near-term correction towards 1.3170 - 1.3200. A retest of this broken support level for resistance could see GBPUSD renew its momentum for further downside as 1.3000 support remains a very likely target that could be tested.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1317.95): Gold prices closed positive yesterday, but the price action was very muted. With the resistance zone established near 1331.30 - 1327.50, we could expect gold prices to retest this resistance level. However, there is scope for prices to breakout higher above this resistance in which case; gold prices could be seen aiming for the $1350.00 handle once again.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 31/08/2016

The US dollar saw renewed buying momentum yesterday as the yen fell sharply, sending USDJPY higher on the day while EURUSD posted strong declines. Ahead of Friday's payrolls report and tomorrow's ISM manufacturing data, the US dollar index could remain trading flat ahead of further gains as the bullish rate hike bets continue to keep the dollar support. Today's ADP payrolls might be an event risk for the dollar.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1156): EURUSD below 1.1150 yesterday following the near doji type pattern. The strong momentum led declines, however, currently points to a hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart for EURUSD, which implies a near-term correction to 1.1200 - 1.1250. However, there is still scope for EURUSD to continue its declines down to 1.110 where the next main support could be tested. Price action could, therefore, remain range bound within 1.1200 and 1.1150 with the range likely to be broken. To the upside, watch for 1.1270 - 1.1281 resistance zone, while to the downside, 1.1100 remain the key targets.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.02): USDJPY posted strong gains yesterday and managed to break out from the 102.00 resistance level. A pullback could see this resistance being tested for support, and a pending higher low is required to validate the upside move. On the lower time frames, the divergence in the oscillator points to a correction although the depth of the correction could be limited. Still, watch for a pullback in USDJPY either towards 102.00 or 101.00 ahead of further gains.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3110): GBPUSD formed an inside bar with the price action staying muted which could indicate a near-term breakout. 1.3200 remains the resistance level that could be tested in the event of a breakout to the upside, while 1.3000 remains the support that could target if the inside bar breaks down lower. On the 4-hour chart time frame, GBPUSD has established support near 1.3067 which could see a retracement back to the resistance zone of 1.3200 and 1.3170. The bias remains to the downside as long as the resistance level is not breached.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1314.81): Gold prices fell to 1315.00 support yesterday, but the daily Stochastics formed a lower high, which indicates that the support level could hold the declines for now. Resistance at 1331.30 - 1327.50 still remains a key level for gold prices to pull back to, while to the downside a break below 1315.00 could see gold prices slip lower towards 1300.00 round number support.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 01/09/2016

Following strong daily sessions of gains, the US dollar index closed in a doji pattern yesterday which could signal a near-term pause to the bullish momentum. With a new trading month and lots of economic data on the tap today, the markets could be looking to see some pullback from the recent trends.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1154): EURUSD tested a new 2-week low yesterday at 1.1122, but price action managed to close on a bullish note just a few pips off the 1.1100 support level. The bearish momentum is likely to keep prices subdued with EURUSD likely to test the lower support. On the 4-hour chart, price action remains bearish, but the hourly chart shows a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern that is likely to be formed. The neckline resistance is seen at 1.1160 - 1.1150. As long as the previous low is not breached, any higher low on the intraday time frame could signal a possible move to the upside. Resistance at 1.1200 remains key, and only a break above this level will signal further upside to 1.1270 - 1.1281.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.26): USDJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday with prices closing at a 5-week high. The main resistance is seen at 104.00 which could be tested while support near 102.00 is formed. On the 1-hour time frame, price action shows a strong bearish divergence and a break below 103.00 intraday support could trigger further downside towards 101.00 - 100.80 level.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3150): GBPUSD was bullish yesterday with price action likely to test the upside to 1.3200. Today's manufacturing PMI could very well be the catalyst if the headline print manages to beat expectations. On the 4-hour chart, the resistance at 1.3200 - 1.3170 remains likely to be tested, but the Stochastics points to a hidden divergence that could keep prices capped if the resistance fails to give way. The lower support at 1.3000 remains key in this aspect if the resistance level holds.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1309.66): Gold prices inched closer to the 1300 psychological support but price formed a low near 1304.31. Still, the downside momentum could keep gold pressured lower as 1300 remains a key support level that could be tested. On the 4-hour chart, mind the bullish divergence on the Stochastics, although price action needs to form a higher low for any validation. Resistance at 1331 - 1327.50 remains in sight for a near-term pullback to this short term downtrend.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 02/09/2016

The US dollar closed bearish yesterday after the ISM manufacturing report showed an unexpected downside surprise. Following up from the doji pattern that formed on Wednesday, yesterday's bearish close could see a near-term pullback in the US dollar which we have been waiting for all week. Today's NFP report comes with significant risks which could sway short-term market sentiment.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1200): EURUSD closed bullish yesterday with prices seen testing 1.1200 resistance level. The hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart could indicate a near-term continuation subject to price clearing the 1.1200 resistance level. On the 1-hour chart, as noted yesterday, prices pulled back lower to form a higher low before posting strong gains to reach 1.1200. The 1-hour chart now shows a potential cup and handle pattern that could be formed if prices remain consolidated at the current levels unless price breaks out strongly higher. In any case, watch for a pullback towards 1.1175 - 1.1150, ahead of further gains to the resistance level of 1.1270 - 1.1281.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.29): USDJPY barely managed to test 104.00 resistance before pulling back lower to the close the day at 103.23. Support is now seen near 102.00, which could form a higher low. Although USDJPY looks poised to the downside in the near term, the long term bias remains to the upside with a potential test towards 108.00. Also, note the potential head and shoulders continuation pattern that is forming. A break down below 100.00 could signal further downside in USDJPY on the daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3282): GBPUSD managed to break out above 1.3200 yesterday after the manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside. Further gains could be seen pushing GBPUSD towards 1.3400. However, watch for a pullback towards 1.3200 - 1.3170, or a breakout above 1.33 currently which could keep the bullish momentum going.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1314.01): Gold prices were seen trading near the 1315 - 1300 support zone that was identified. But the breakout from the rising median line signals further downside. Watch for a rally back to the 1331.30 - 1327.50 resistance level which could be tested in the near term. This is also validated by the bullish divergence seen on the 4-hour time frame.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/09/2016

The US dollar initially fell after the NFP report but soon managed to regain its losses towards the end of the day. The US and Canadian markets are closed today which is likely to keep the markets busy until the close of the European session. The US dollar index is likely to, therefore, remain limited in the price action today, but a short-term correction is expected ahead of further gains in the medium term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1164): EURUSD closed Friday's session at the support level of 1.1155, failing to maintain the initial gains which saw the euro test session highs of 1.1251. On the 1-hour chart time frame, we can see that the declines from 1.1251 highs saw prices retest the inverse head and shoulders pattern neckline resistance for support. A reversal from this level could signal near-term upside, but the rally can be capped near 1.1200 resistance level. The Stochastics has formed a lower low against the higher low in price indicating the hidden bullish divergence which keeps the bias to the upside. Watch for a retest back to 1.1200 and further upside could see prices test 1.1270 - 1.1280 resistance. To the downside, price failure below 1.1150 could signal further downside.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.71): USDJPY closed near 104.00 resistance level on Friday and price action remains largely mixed after Friday's strong bullish outside bar. Further upside can be expected on a close above 104.00 for a test of resistance at 106.00. To the downside, support at 102.00 could be tested ahead of further upside. The On the 4-hour chart, however, the bearish divergence points to a stronger correction down to 101.00 - 100.80 level, which could be tested on a breakdown of prices below 102.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3317): GBPUSD cleared 1.3200 resistance level last week, and price action is likely to remain supported above this level, albeit a retest to establish support at 1.3200 remains pending. On the 4-hour chart, we notice the bearish divergence as the Stochastics fails to confirm the highs in price. Support at 1.3200 - 1.3170 is therefore very likely to be tested, ahead of further upside to 1.3400. A breakdown below 1.3200 - 1.3170 could signal near term declines to 1.3067.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1324.20): Gold prices closed bullish on Friday with prices seen testing 1327.50 - 1331.30 resistance level. With prices being rejected strongly at this level we could expect a near-term pullback in gold prices based on the 4-hour hidden bearish divergence. Watch for a higher low likely to be formed near 1314 - 1312 level. If a higher low is formed here, gold prices could be looking to retest the resistance at 1331.30 - 1327.50 followed by a retest back to 1350.00.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 06/09/2016

The markets were trading flat yesterday on account of the US and Canadian markets staying close. However, GBPUSD was the exception as another beat on estimates on the services PMI kept the sterling's bullish momentum going. This could, however, change in the near term as a pullback to 1.3200 support is likely. Gold prices continue to push higher, but prices remain caught within strong price levels, a breakout from which could set the near term bias. Watch for the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI which remains the key economic release for today.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1154): EURUSD was flat yesterday with price action staying limited and below the 1.1200 and 1.1100 price levels. On the 4-hour chart time frame, EURUSD has been consolidating near 1.1150 level that has held out as support a few weeks ago. As long as this support holds, EURUSD is likely to remain poised to trade within the range mentioned with the likelihood of an upside correction. Of course, resistance at 1.1200 needs to be cleared in this aspect. The falling median line plotted on the chart so far shows a higher low being formed. A breakout from the median line is, therefore, essential to validate a test back to 1.1200 followed by retesting the resistance near 1.1270 - 1.1280 level. To the downside, below 1.1150, EURUSD could be seen falling to 1.1100.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.52): USDJPY closed bearish yesterday following the reversal near 104.00. This could indicate a near-term decline with 102.00 being the likely support that could be tested. On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY remains to trade within 104.00 and 103.00 price level, but the bearish divergence is likely to see some downside. Watch for a break below 103.00 in which case; USDJPY could fall to 102.00 and eventually to the lower support seen near 101.00 and 100.80.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3326): GBPUSD attempted to test 1.3400 resistance but fell shy of a few pips to close flat on the day. On the 4-hour chart, we are still expecting to see a pullback in GBPUSD towards 1.3200 - 1.3170 support level. Watch for potential lower high being formed on the 4-hour chart and near the 1.3400 resistance level which will give an early indication of a correction towards 1.3200. Above 1.3400, further upside could be seen towards 1.3500, but it is unlikely that the upward momentum will be able to sustain the rally.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1327.01): Gold prices closed in a small range yesterday on account of the US holiday. Price action remains caught within 1315 and 1330 levels in the near term, and further upside to 1350 could be seen on a breakout above 1330. To the downside, below 1315, gold prices could be seen testing the 1300 support level. On the 4-hour chart, the resistance zone near 1327.50 - 133.00 remains strong with the Stochastics showing a hidden bearish divergence. The divergence points to near term correction towards 1314 - 1312 which is a minor support level. In the event of a breakout above 1331, gold prices could be seen rising towards 1350.00.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 07/09/2016

Weaker than expected non manufacturing PMI data released yesterday sent the US dollar weaker as precious metals staged an impressive rally. With rate hikes being the core of the economic releases, yesterday's data has worsened the likelihood of a rate hike in September. Still, the current price action remains in line with the view that the dollar pull back is a correction to the medium term uptrend that could soon follow.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1251): EURUSD closed above 1.1200 yesterday with price action now likely to stay flat within 1.1300 - 1.1270 price level into tomorrow's ECB meeting. In the near term, expect the price to dip towards 1.1200 on the minor bearish divergence that is formed on the chart. Resistance at 1.1270 - 1.1280 remains key to the upside, and a break out above this resistance could keep the bullish momentum send EURUSD to test 1.1300 followed by 1.1341. A possible reversal near the resistance level could, however, signal a near-term weakness, which could be confirmed if EURUSD breaks down below 1.1200.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.44): USDJPY is back near the 102.00 support level with prices seen trading below the support. The support zone near 102.00 - 100.80 remains a key level of interest and the retest to this support level has been long coming. Watch for price reversal near 101.00 - 100.80 as the Stochastics is likely to form a lower low indicating a hidden bullish divergence. This could potentially make way for USDJPY to renew its uptrend with 104.00 coming in as the initial resistance followed by 106.00. A break below 100.60 could, however, signal further weakness of a sideways range that could be established.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3401): GBPUSD edged higher towards 1.3400 yesterday, testing the resistance level that was established around late June and then briefly tested in July. The daily chart shows the potential support at 1.3200 that needs to be tested in order to validate further upside gains. On the 4-hour chart, there is no evidence of a lower high but the bearish divergence indicates a correction that is impending towards 1.3200 - 1.3170.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1352.06): Gold prices rallied back to the 1350 handle yesterday, but the bullish price action is clearly not out of the woods. Resistance near 1350 - 1360 remains strong which could keep prices capped to the upside. On the 4-hour chart, mark the hidden bearish divergence as the Stochastics has formed a higher high against the lower high in price. As long as 1356 is not breached, gold prices could be looking to correct lower towards 1330.00 followed by 1314.00.