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AUD/CAD: Loonie to Gain from Bolstering Fundamentals

In spite of the consolidation in the technical charts since the dawn of the close of the New York trades yesterday, the Canadian dollar is forecast to reassume its gains over its Australian counterpart. The Loonie dollar is on a fourth day of gains against the Aussie, looking to extend to a fifth straight day of appreciation today. Fundamental data today are perceived to be in favor of the North American ComDoll, which could only likely stoke its demand.

Bloomberg reports that the Canadian currency has matched its strongest level since May against the US dollar, as crude inventories were forecast to drop on weather and fire conditions affecting the Louisiana coast and Venezuela’s biggest refinery, respectively. Further, the currency gained against its commodity-exporting peers on speculation that Canada will benefit from US economic growth as China’s economy continues to falter. In the same manner, this weakens the outlook for the Australian currency.

Moreover, crude oil futures rose 0.9 percent to $96.33 a barrel in New York, advancing as much as 1.1 percent after the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported yesterday that 78 percent of crude production from the Gulf has been shut in as Hurricane Isaac approaches. Canada stands to benefit from disruption in the energy supply of the world’s biggest economy.

Looking at the day’s economic docket, the Raw Materials Price Index is forecast to rebound by 2.1 percent in July, after plunging 4.0 percent last June. More importantly, data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis today is believed to show that in the months from April to June, Gross Domestic Product in the US increased 1.7 percent – more than the 1.5 percent initial estimate. Net exports are expected to make a larger positive contribution to Q3 growth as imports slowed more than the BEA assumed in its first estimate and exports came in stronger. As this could signal a positive turn of events for the US economy, this can also be seen as Loonie positive. Later during the week, predictions are that StatsCan will report that the Canadian economy expanded for a fourth straight quarter – another sign of optimism for the Canadian ComDoll.

In contrast, the Australian dollar traded 0.3 percent from a one-month low amid concern that slowing global growth is weighing on the country’s economy. It seems as if the nation is running low on luck as Australia’s resources minister called the end of a bull run in commodity prices, and the central bank chief predicted the cresting of the investment wave within two years.

In consideration of these fundamental news, the Loonie is perceived to benefit. A short position is recommended for the AUD/CAD, though be cautious of likely price corrections.

Article by AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions
 
AUD-CAD can be more bearish I see. on this 4H TF clear that price on still move bearish as long as the price can move on bellow the 23.6 fib line at bellow price 1.0466. Search for sell with SL above the 23.6 fib 1.0466 is better.
 
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