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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by WindsorBrokers, Jun 29, 2015.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Broker Representative

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    Increased fears of Grexit scenario, as expected, put strong pressure on Euro that opened with strong gap-lower against its major rivals. The single currency opened with 158-pips deep gap near psychological 1.10 support, with fresh weakness being contained at next strong support – daily Ichimoku cloud base. Subsequent recovery on profit-taking, accelerated at the beginning of European session and surged through initial daily 100SMA barrier at 1.1038, to find solid resistance at 1.1126, daily Kijun-sen line, former support that contained past week’s downside attacks. This barrier, together with daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.1147, should be ideally capping recovery actions, to maintain freshly established strong near-term bearish structure intact, as near-term focus shifts lower, after today’s gap lower open and looks towards strong support at 1.0818, higher low of 27 May. Also, the structure softened after last week’s close in red that came after three consecutive weeks of euro’s rallies. On the other side, further rallies and potential violation of daily cloud top, would delay immediate bears.

    Res: 1.1126; 1.1147; 1.1193; 1.1233

    Sup: 1.1057; 1.1038; 1.1000; 1.0963



    Cable covered overnight’s gap, on recovery action that emerged after failure to break below Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5168/1.5928 rally at 1.5638, as post-opening dips found footstep at 1.5660, near-former low of 24 June. Recovery action was so far capped at 1.5742, keeping intact the first pivot at 1.5765, daily 10SMA that guards 1.5800/13, next pivotal barriers. Weak near-term studies keep the downside vulnerable and while daily 10SMA stays intact, expect support for near-term shorts. However, overall structure remains bullish and sees current pullback as corrective action, before fresh attempts higher. Fibonacci 38.2% support acts as ideal reversal point, to prevent further easing towards next pivotal support at 1.5595, ascending daily 20SMA, loss of which would soften daily bulls and risk further easing.

    Res: 1.5742; 1.5765; 1.5813; 1.5842

    Sup: 1.5683; 1.5660; 1.5638; 1.5595



    Near-term price action is congested between 122.08, overnight low and 123.18, Asian recovery high, following on 120-pips strong gap –lower opening, seen on fresh strengthening of Japanese yen, traditional safe-haven instrument. Former strong barrier and upside breakpoint at 122, stayed intact, after break below former base at 122.44, spiked lower to 122.08, session low. Recovery action is so far seen limited, with daily Tenkan-sen / 4-hour Tenkan-sen and 10 SMA, offering good resistance at 123.26/38 zone, guarding pivotal daily 20SMA that reverses lower and currently lies at 123.67. Only sustained break here that will also confirm filling overnight’s gap, would neutralize downside threats and shift focus towards 124.42, short-term congestion top, in alternative scenario. For now, downside is seen as favored target, as fresh weakness already cracked 124.44 higher base, with extension below 122 pivot, required to confirm bearish resumption of pullback from 125.84.

    Res: 123.06; 123.26; 123.38; 123.98

    Sup: 122.74; 122.30; 122.08; 121.53



    The pair covered small overnight’s gap and recovered from dangerous zone, after cracking strong support and short-term range floor at 0.76 zone. Dips posted Asian session’s low at 0.7584, before bouncing. However, this could be seen as delay of fresh push lower that needs firm break below 0.76 base, to open way for eventual return to key short-term support at 0.7531, low of 02 Apr, for full reversal of 0.7531/0.8161 bull-phase. So far, short-term range trading remains in play, as long as 0.76 base holds. On the upside, recovery attempts were capped under psychological 0.77 barrier, leaving intact bearish 10/20daily SMA’s cross that reinforces downside pressure, as pair’s overall structure remains bearish.

    Res: 0.7667; 0.7692; 0.7725; 0.7750
    Sup: 0.7633; 0.7600; 0.7584; 0.7531

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