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United States Crude Oil Inventories April 28 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.

See Chart here:

April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me.

See Chart here:

April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move I would need to be safe.

See Chart here:




I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -500



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.
1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = 0659
2) API Actual Crude = +4300
3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0508
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1300



Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
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