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Today we saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.



I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.



The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

It's the second week of the month, two big trades under my belt.

See Chart here:

See the video at :
 
What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move!



Check out the price action here:

August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!


Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 4



Today's trade plan

I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradeable move.



Tradable pairs

USDMXN


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
No trade for me on this data as Mexico's central bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. It was in line with expectation, however, should a surprise change occur, this kind of report would create a tremendous move, and I would be laughing all the way to the bank.


See Chart here:
 
Last week I only set up for two trades. Initially, I planned to trade three reports. The incident in the US where a cyber-attack brought the flow of one of the east coasts main oil pipelines to a grinding halt resulted in the weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories report that I typically trade too risky. So I wisely sat on the sideline this week. Nevertheless, it was still a good week for me to see US CPI data come out with a massive +0.6 deviation, this gave me some nine minutes of perfect price action, and I banked at least 30 pips across all my accounts.

See the price action here. : https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wNS0xMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

Now I start week three with two big wins under my belt, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite even further. If the markets give me just one surprise, it's all I need.

Remember to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain.

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

19/05/2021 15:30:00 US Crude Oil Inventories
20/05/2021 02:30:00 AUD Employment Change
21/05/2021 08:30:00 EUR German Flash Man PMI

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Good Luck this week.
James Thatcher
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome
February 24 2021 A nice +0.3 deviation created a prolonged and significant move in AUD price action.

Check out the price action here:

I will use forecasts of:
WPI (Q/Q) 0.5
WPI (Y/Y) 1.4

Today's trade plan
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow and tradeable move on EURAUD.

Tradable pairs
EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

Check out the price action here:

May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

Check out the price action here:

April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1623
2) API Actual Crude = +620
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0886
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800



Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:

February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:

January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 20
Unemployment Rate 5.6



Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018. Which is great from a bi monthly report.

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.


Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

Its worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 3.5



Today's trade plan

If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direxction , then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.


Tradable pairs

USDZAR


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index. (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully.

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

25/05/2021 13:00 Hungarian Interest Rate
See the history here:

26/05/2021 03:00 New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the history here:

26/05/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the history here:

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 29 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

See the price action here

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement 0.6

Today's trade plan

Economists expect a series of rate hikes throughout the rest of 2021, with the first increase of 0.15bps to the interest rate expected to happen in June, followed by 25bps hikes in September and December.
Today If we see that expected series of increases brought forward, I will take a sell on USDHUF, so I am looking for a +0.15bps increase or more to sell USDHUF (Meaning I'm buying the HUF) and expect some continued HUF Strengthening.

Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

Check out the price action here:

May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

Check out the price action here:

May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -750
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1200



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1050
2) API Actual Crude = -439
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986




Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I also skipped USA ISM Manufacturing PMI. I've been monitoring this report closely and was considering trading it. Still, I don't have the confidence yet, so I will continue to monitor the market's reactions for a bit longer. No deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories or Non-Farm Payrolls. A pretty dull start to the month, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.

This week there are just two trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

09/06/2021 15:00:00 Canadian Overnight Rate

See the history here

10/06/2021 13:30:00 USA Core CPI m/m

See the history here

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

Check out the price action here:

May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2036 (RT)
2) API Actual Crude = -2108
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0698 ( RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986



Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic deviations and their outcome

May 12 2021 We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

Check out the price action here:

April 13 2021 Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

March 10 2021 The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.5
CPI (M/M) 0.5
CPI (Y/Y) 4.7



Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.



Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to sell USDJPY or 0.7% to buy USDJPY.

I'm only looking to trade USDJPY as there's an ECB press conference at the same time. I wouldn't want to trade EURUSD for that fact today.



I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!



CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)

CPI - (Y/Y

)

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.


Tradable pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I was hopeful for US CPI, but it didn't come near my trigger, and the reaction was volatile and unsafe to trade. We didn't see a deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories either. A pretty dull month so far, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.

This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

15/06/2021 13:30 US Core Retail Sales m/m
See the history here

16/06/2021 13:30 Canadian Core CPI m/m
See the history here

16/06/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the history here

17/06/2021 02:30 Australian Employment Change
See the history here



I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
 
Last edited by a moderator:
What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

April 21 2021 Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

Check out the price action here:

February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.5
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.4
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.4



Today's trade plan

Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.



Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.


Tradable pairs

EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic deviations and their outcome

June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict from gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

Check out the price action here:

June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 5000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent


Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -



1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2500 (BB)

2) API Actual Crude = -8500

3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614 (RT)

4) API Actual Gasoline = +2900




Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
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What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

Check out the price action here:

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:

February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 30
Unemployment Rate 5.5



Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



Tradable pairs

AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

Check out the price action here:

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:

February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 30
Unemployment Rate 5.5



Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



Tradable pairs

AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:

December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

Check out the price action here:

October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 19



Today's trade plan

25 economists all forecasts today for the rate to stay at 19%

Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.



Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
Australian unemployment deviated strongly, but unfortunately, the reaction was poor with a hard spike and retrace, which didn't continue. I think there are two main reasons why this happened. Firstly the RBA Governor Lowe was very dovish in his speech the hour before the release, making the positive deviation less critical to the market. Second that it wasn't a good day to have traded due to a big move off of FOMC hours earlier. If those two things hadn't taken place and it was a typical day, we would have seen a good movement off the data as it was substantial data. Losses will happen; there was no real damage to my capital, and for me and overall, the year is still in profitable one. Now is an important time to choose my trades wisely. Don't let the losses lead to taking unnecessary risks to recover. I take each trade on its merit; I'll forget this loss now and move on to maintaining my risk-averse approach.

See Chart here:
 
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