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EUR/USD: negative dynamics persist

13/02/2020


According to the quarterly report submitted by the European Commission on Thursday, the eurozone's total GDP will grow by 1.2% in both 2020 and 2021. Thus, the European Commission confirmed the forecasts presented in November 2019.

Among the main risks, the European Commission indicated an outbreak of coronavirus and the uncertainty of US foreign trade policy.

The downward risks for the economic outlook were somewhat weakened after the conclusion of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the USA, as well as after the EU and Great Britain managed to avoid Brexit without a deal. However, uncertainty persists, and new sources of risk have emerged, one of which is coronavirus.

"The economy of the Eurozone may receive support from a softer and more stimulating fiscal policy, and will also be positively affected by soft financial conditions in some countries", the European Commission added.

The inflation forecast for 2020 was raised to 1.3% from 1.2%, and the forecast for 2021 - to 1.4% from 1.3%.

The head of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke in January about the negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone by the protectionist policy of the United States.

During a January 23 press conference, Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is facing "downside risks" due to increased protectionism, bearing in mind, among other things, the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose import duties on European cars.

Great Britain left the EU on January 31, however, internal political tensions and uncertainty in the Eurozone remain, but there are no significant signs of a recovery in Europe’s manufacturing sector.

It is possible that the ECB will be forced to resort to additional incentive measures, which will further weaken the euro. A recent ECB report suggests that rates could be reduced to -1% or even lower.

For the euro, a negative fundamental background prevails so far, creating the prerequisites for a further weakening of the euro.

EUR / USD is trading in a zone well below the key resistance level of 1.1128 (EMA200 on the daily chart), and so far no recovery is expected. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.

To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.0953 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1035 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.0850, 1.0800

Resistance Levels: 1.0895, 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128



Trading Recommendations


Sell Limit 1.0890, Sell Stop 1.0860. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Take-Profit 1.0800, 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0955. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
WTI: long positions so far premature

14/02/2020


After falling sharply last month amid the spreading coronavirus infection in China, oil prices seem to have stabilized in February. Investor fears about the massive spread of coronavirus have declined. The rate of spread of the disease appears to be slowing. Expectations for China's economic recovery to recover in the 2nd quarter after falling in the 1st quarter due to coronavirus are supporting commodity prices, including oil.

At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 51.50, above the short-term support level (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The next target in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels 54.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15). Nevertheless, talking about the resumption of the bull trend is still premature. If investors again begin to receive information about the growing number of patients with coronavirus in China, then global stock indices and commodity prices will again come under pressure. Coronavirus is still the main topic.

A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level 51.20 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Breakdown of the next important support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will increase pressure on the price towards its further decline with a long-term goal at support level 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).

Today, investors and oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has grown over the past month by just 6 rigs, to 676 units. A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers. If the Baker Hughes report indicates a decrease in the number of active rigs, this could give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

Support Levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Resistance Levels: 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 50.90. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 50.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: the pound strengthened. What's next?

17/02/2020


The pound strengthened sharply last week, while the GBP / USD pair rose to an intra-week high near 1.3069. The reason was the report of new rearrangements in the office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. New Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is a staunch supporter of Brexit, lower corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. According to some economists, its appointment may strengthen upward factors for the pound.

However, further growth of the pound and GBP / USD may be difficult.

In the long run, Brexit is still a negative factor for the pound. The UK is unlikely to receive significant preferences or benefits as a result of new international trade agreements.

At the same time, new data on inflation and employment in the UK expected this week may put downward pressure on the pound. These indices will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday (at 09:30 GMT).

Since the opening of today's trading day, GBP / USD has been trading in a narrow range near 1.3030, above important support levels 1.3025 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3000 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2850 (EMA200 on the daily chart), while maintaining a positive the dynamics.

The breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3069 will provoke further growth of GBP / USD towards the resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3310 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3025, 1.3000 will be a signal for sales and lower GBP / USD to support level 1.2850.

Today is the day off in the USA (Presidents' Day). In view of this, trading volumes during the American session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp short-term increase in volatility in the thin market.

Support Levels: 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3075. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2850

Buy Stop 1.3075. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: downward trend prevails

18/02/2020


The publication of protocols from the February meeting of the RBA at the beginning of today's Asian session caused a drop in the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD. At a meeting on February 4, the RBA board decided to leave interest rates unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. However, "there is reason to expect a lower key rate", said RBA head Philip Lowe. At the same time, “coronavirus is a new source of uncertainty”, the RBA management believes.

According to bank executives, "the epidemic poses a significant short-term economic risk for China and international trade flows, and therefore for the Australian economy".

Now, investors will follow the publication (on Wednesday and Thursday at 00:30 GMT) of data from the country's labor market in order to determine the further exchange rate of RBA interest rates and, accordingly, the dynamics of AUD. According to the forecast, unemployment is expected to increase in January to 5.2% from 5.1% in December. This is a negative factor for AUD.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near 0.6680, below the key resistance level of 0.6880 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which indicates the prevalence of a downward global trend.

Only after growth into the zone above short-term important resistance levels of 0.6720 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) can we return to the consideration of long positions with the target at the resistance level 0.6880.

Negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, speaking in favor of its sales.

In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Support Levels: 0.6670, 0.6660, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6720, 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6665. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260

Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6665. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935

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EUR/USD: when will the fall of the euro stop?

19/02/2020


Macro data published at the beginning of yesterday's European session testified to the growing fears of European investors regarding the spread of coronavirus in China and the worsening business climate in Germany and the Eurozone.

The ZEW Institute reported a fall in the index of economic expectations in Germany in February to 8.7 (against 26.7 in January and a forecast of 21.5) and an economic sentiment index in the Eurozone to 10.4 (against 25.6 in January and a forecast of 30).

The EUR / USD completed the last trading day near the level 1.0789, reaching the lowest level since April 2017.

However, a deeper decline in EUR / USD has not yet been observed. On Wednesday, the pair is trading in a narrow range near the critical level of 1.0800 in anticipation of new drivers, either for corrective growth or for further decline.

It is noteworthy that in the first half of today's trading day there is an increase in the euro in cross-pair with the pound. If the strengthening of the euro extends to other important cross-pairs, we can seriously consider the likelihood of resumption of growth and the EUR / USD.

The first signal to resume purchases of EUR / USD will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.0873 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

So far, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD. A breakdown of the local support level of 1.0790 will speak in favor of short positions and a decrease in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).

On Wednesday, investors will follow the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the January meeting of the Fed. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled its intention to maintain them at their current level in the near future. The Fed also announced that it will continue to purchase treasury bonds in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and intervene in the repo markets. If the protocols contain new information signaling the Fed’s propensity for a softer policy, then the dollar, which has strengthened significantly in recent days, may decline, which will become a good positive driver for the so far correctional growth of EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.0790, 1.0800

Resistance Levels: 1.0815, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080, 1.1115



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.0780. Stop-Loss 1.0825. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0825. Stop-Loss 1.0780. Take-Profit 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
S&P500: long positions are still relevant

20/02/2020


During today's Asian session, the S&P500 updated another record high near 3397.0 mark. Demand for US assets remains. In the current situation of the spread of coronavirus and the slowdown of the Chinese and global economies, the US economy looks most stable. During the January meeting, the Fed signaled increased optimism about the US economy. According to the minutes published Wednesday, Fed leaders "saw an improvement in the balance of risks for economic prospects compared to the previous meeting".

Demand for US assets is growing. So, according to data released last Tuesday, net purchases of US long-term securities by foreign investors in December amounted to $ 85.6 billion, which is $ 60 billion higher than forecast. Economists believe that in the second half of the year the results of American companies will improve.

This, along with expectations of a softer monetary policy by the Fed, creates the prerequisites for further growth of US stock indices.

So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday trades increased by 0.4% to 29348.00 points, the S&P 500 grew by 0.5%, to a new record high of 3386.00 points, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9% to 9817.00, also a new record high.

In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level 3397.0, the S&P500 growth is likely to continue.

In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 3364.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3306.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 correctional decline may continue to the support level 3250.0 (the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart and the highs of 2019). However, only a breakdown of support levels 3025.0 and 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%) will increase the risks of breaking the bullish trend of S&P500.

Today, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and the Conference Board index for January (at 15:00 GMT). This index represents the combined value of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, lending trends and interest spreads. According to the forecast, the index is expected to grow by +0.4%, which is also a positive factor for US stock indices and the dollar.

The S&P500 index maintains a long-term positive trend. Above the support levels 3364.0, 3335.0, long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 3364.0, 3335.0, 3306.0, 3250.0, 3147.0, 3082.0, 3025.0, 2990.0

Resistance Levels: 3397.0, 3400.0



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 3347.0. Stop-Loss 3398.0. Targets 3335.0, 3306.0, 3250.0, 3147.0

Buy Stop 3398.0. Stop-Loss 3347.0. Goals 3450.0, 3490.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: downtrend risk increased

21/02/2020


According to Markit Economics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the UK manufacturing sector rose in February (51.9 against the forecast of 49.7 and 50.0 in January), reaching a 10-month high. The preliminary PMI for the UK services sector was forecast at 53.4 in February, but came out with a value slightly lower (53.3 against 53.9 in January).

Having received support from positive macro statistics, the pound strengthened, while the GBP / USD pair rose during the European session to an intraday high of 1.2951.

However, further growth of GBP / USD above the intraday high of 1.2951 did not follow. Investors are still cautious about positive macro data against the backdrop of Brexit and the spread of coronavirus in Asia.

The theme of coronavirus today again came to the fore. The growth in the number of new infected people in China and South Korea again raises concerns among investors, including the slowdown in global economic growth.

Economists also believe that the UK draft budget expected on March 11 will not contain plans for a significant fiscal stimulus to the economy, and the yield on UK 10-year government bonds by the 3rd quarter will fall by 40 basis points.

At the same time, the dollar continues to be in demand both as a defensive asset, and against the backdrop of positive macro statistics coming from the United States. Most likely, the DXY dollar index will finish in positive territory for the third week in a row.

Despite the current growth of the GBP / USD pair, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts switched to the side of the sellers, signaling the likelihood of a breakdown of the key support level of 1.2850 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and the resumption of the global GBP / USD downtrend.

GBP / USD has already broken through important short-term support levels of 1.3000 and 1.2962, which speaks in favor of short short-term positions with an immediate goal at the support level of 1.2850.

In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1.2962 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will resume upward trend and head towards the local resistance level 1.3069. Further growth of GBP / USD in the current situation is unlikely.

Support Levels: 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2962, 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2970. Take-Profit 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: short positions

25/02/2020


Amid continued investor concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China and its impact on the European economy, the decline in EUR / USD resumed on Tuesday. According to economists, in the 1st quarter of Germany's GDP growth may slow due to a reduction in exports and supply shortages, including from China and to China. 10% of intermediate goods for German factories come to Germany from China, while China accounts for about 6% of German exports. In China, the coronavirus epidemic has already affected production, export, and consumption levels. Now the virus has reached northern Italy, where more than 50,000 local residents were quarantined last Sunday.

The coronavirus epidemic directly threatens global economic growth, since the supply chain of many international enterprises depends on the supply of intermediate and finished products from China. Economists have warned that the global economy could miss $1 trillion of GDP.

For this reason, the dollar is likely to win, as many investors pay attention to it as a defensive asset along with traditional defensive assets (government bonds, gold).

Published at the beginning of yesterday's European session, the positive macro data on Germany could not decisively change the negative attitude towards the euro by investors.

At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.0843 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline towards recent multi-year lows near the 1.0775 mark reached last week.

Several factors of a fundamental and technical nature speak in favor of a further decline in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015)

In this situation, short positions are preferable, even if the upward correction starts again. A signal for her will be a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.0843.

Support Levels: 1.0800, 1.0775

Resistance Levels: 1.0843, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0880. Take-Profit 1.0775, 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0880. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
DJIA: negativity prevails

26/02/2020


The positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the US and China last month changed to a pessimistic one due to the spread of coronavirus outside of China, which could have an even greater negative impact on the global economy.

Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal. At the same time, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, said that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy.

And so, investors' fears intensified on Tuesday after reports of the further spread of coronavirus and warnings of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about a potential pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell another 0.3% on Tuesday to 3138.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.8%, reaching 8966.00 points, losing growth compared to the beginning of the year. Last week, the DJIA was trading near 29528.0, which corresponds to record and absolute highs. But today, at the beginning of the European session, DJIA futures are trading near the 26900.0 mark, 9.6% below last week's highs.

Protective assets are again in active demand. On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell at the beginning of the European session to 1.321% (against 1.473% at the end of last week and against 1.576% at the beginning of last week), which corresponds to the lows of 2016. Gold quotes also resumed growth after falling on Tuesday.

DJIA broke through the important support level of 27546.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and at the beginning of today's European session it is traded near 27070.0.

It is not excluded that the index may decline further to support levels of 26220.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 25200.0 (August lows and EMA144 on the weekly chart), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).

However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.

Growth into the zone above the resistance level of 27546.0 will revive the positive dynamics of the DJIA and once again make long positions relevant.

Support Levels: 26700.0, 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

Resistance Levels: 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0



Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 27350.0. Stop-Loss 26700.0. Take-Profit 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

Sell Stop 26700.0. Stop-Loss 27350.0. Take-Profit 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
Brent: short positions

27/02/2020


Amid falling global stock indices due to investors' fears about the increased risks of the coronavirus pandemic, oil prices continue to decline. On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude oil broke through the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing through the mark of 53.50, and continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is traded near 52.40, falling in price for the 5th day in a row.

Prices are also falling amid disagreements between OPEC and Russia over oil production restrictions. Next week, the OPEC+ coalition summit will be held in Vienna. Saudi Arabia insists on a further reduction in total production; however, these proposals did not find support from Russia. If OPEC+ fails to agree on an additional reduction in production volumes, this will lead to an even larger decline in oil prices.

The oil market is dominated by bearish sentiment.

The price may receive support on Friday if the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. However, in any case, this support will be very short-term and limited.

The downward trend prevails, pushing the price towards the December low of $50.00 per barrel. Only growth into the zone above the resistance levels of 62.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2%) will again make long-term long positions relevant.

A signal to start shopping can be a breakdown of the resistance levels 56.20 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and 56.90 (Fibonacci level 50% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel). Short positions are preferred so far.

Support Levels: 52.00, 51.00, 50.00

Resistance Levels: 53.50, 56.20, 56.90, 58.60, 60.40, 61.80, 62.50, 63.90



Trading recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 54.10. Take-Profit 52.00, 51.00, 50.00

Buy Stop 54.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 56.20, 56.90, 58.60, 60.40, 61.80, 62.50, 63.90

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
S&P500: negative dynamics

28/02/2020


World and US stock indices continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day.

Last Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 4.4% to 25766.00 points, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% to 2978.00 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6% to 8566.00 points. All three indices fell more than 10% from their recent highs reached this month, moving to the territory of correction.

Due to the global spread of coronavirus, investors avoid risky assets and prefer protective assets such as government bonds and gold.

According to the latest data, the number of people infected with coronavirus worldwide exceeded 82,000, and the death toll was 2,800.

Pessimism of investors is dominant in financial markets, associated with expectations of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 1.163% (against 1.505% at the end of last month), which corresponds to absolute record lows.

S&P500 has lost by now more than 15%, having dropped from absolute highs, where it was still 2 weeks ago.

The index broke through the most important long-term support levels 3080.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0) and continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 50%), 2740.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 2700.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The first signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the resistance levels of 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 3025.0 (highs of July 2019), and after the S&P500 returns to the zone above the resistance levels of 3080.0, 3147.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), the index will continue to grow , and the long-term bull trend will resume.

Support Levels: 2865.0, 2740.0, 2700.0

Resistance Levels: 2990.0, 3025.0, 3080.0, 3147.0



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 2875.0. Stop-Loss 2995.0. Objectives 2865.0, 2740.0, 2700.0

Buy Stop 2995.0. Stop-Loss 2875.0. Objectives 3025.0, 3080.0, 3147.0, 3200.0, 3400.0, 3450.0, 3490.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: commodity currencies strengthened on Monday

02/03/2020


During the Asian session on Monday, the AUD / USD pair rose by 1.3% to 0.6550, which is 115 points higher than the minimum reached last Friday.

Some economists and investors are beginning to gradually realize that fears of a global coronavirus pandemic and a fall in global stock indices have turned out to be excessive.

Moreover, some leaders of global central banks have made it clear that central banks will support the economy if necessary.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, made it clear on Friday that the central bank is preparing to lower interest rates to support the economy in light of the spread of coronavirus.

On Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is closely monitoring the development of the situation around the coronavirus and "will be able to provide enough liquidity, as well as ensure the stability of financial markets through market operations and asset acquisitions".

Market participants will be waiting for the results of the meetings of the central banks of Australia and Canada, which will be held this week. Some investors and economists expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, and then continue to cut rates in April.

If the RBA takes this step, then other major central banks may follow suit. The decision on the RBA interest rate will be published on Tuesday at 03:30 (GMT).

On Monday, AUD / USD is growing, trying to develop a correction into the zone above the short-term resistance level of 0.6587 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

In case of its breakdown, correctional growth will continue to resistance levels of 0.6670, 0.6700 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

A signal for the resumption of decline may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6535 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart).

Below the key resistance level of 0.6850 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the downward global trend of AUD / USD prevails.

Support Levels: 0.6535, 0.6500, 0.6434, 0.6400, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6587, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6810, 0.6850



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6530. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6500, 0.6434, 0.6400, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6530. Take-Profit 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6810, 0.6850

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CAD: global central banks will support the economy

03/03/2020


Back in January, the USD / CAD was traded near the multi-month low of 1.2960, which corresponds to the levels of October 2018. However, already at the end of February, USD / CAD reached 1.3460 (June 2019 levels), gaining 4.3% in two months.

Fears about the coronavirus pandemic caused a severe drop in world stock indices and commodity prices, with which crawled down and commodity currencies quotes.

In its latest report, released on Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2020, as China's economy was hit hard by the outbreak of coronavirus. Now the OECD expects that global GDP this year will grow by 2.4% compared to 2.9% according to the December forecast.

Investors now hope that global central banks and government departments will help markets stabilize and protect the economy from the effects of coronavirus.

The RB of Australia lowered its interest rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, bringing it to the level of 0.50%, which was the fourth decrease in less than a year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe signaled the likelihood of further policy easing.

On Wednesday, a meeting of the Bank of Canada will take place, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT).

If the Bank of Canada reduces the rate by 0.25%, then it will drop to 1.50% from the current 1.75%.

Signs of worsening morbidity in Iran, Italy and South Korea are forcing market participants and global central banks and governments to overestimate the severity of impending problems. The decline in world commodity prices, primarily oil, is also putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Thus, the USD / CAD pair is likely to maintain positive momentum, at least this week.

Above the short-term support level of 1.3330 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), only long positions should be considered. A signal for sales may be a breakdown of this support level with a target at support levels 1.3253 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3215 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Above the support level of 1.3215, the bullish trend of USD / CAD prevails.

Support Levels: 1.3345, 1.3330, 1.3253, 1.3215

Resistance Levels: 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3253, 1.3215

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
NZD/USD: emergency measures

04/03/2020


As a result of an almost recoilless decline over the past 2 months, the NZD / USD pair reached a local minimum near the 0.6190 mark in early March, which corresponds to the lows of July 2009, when the global crisis of 2008 only began to decline.

However, in early March, the decline in NZD / USD stopped, and in the last 3 days the pair rose sharply, reaching 0.6300 at the beginning of today's European session.

On Tuesday, representatives of the G7 promised to use all the necessary tools to protect their economies from the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus, and the Fed unexpectedly lowered the interest rate by 0.50%. “The fundamental economic indicators of the United States remain strong. Nevertheless, coronavirus poses a growing risk for economic activity”, the central bank said. “The Committee (the Federal Reserve for Open Market Operations) is closely monitoring developments and their potential impact on economic prospects. intending to use their tools and act accordingly to support the economy".

In March, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the National Bank of Switzerland, and the RB of New Zealand will hold their next meetings on monetary policy, and today the Bank of Canada will decide on the rates.

He will probably also follow the example of the Fed and lower the interest rate. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled for March 25. The bank is likely to lower its key interest rate, and it is possible to lower it by 0.50%. However, a more significant role in the dynamics of NZD will be played by the state of world stock markets.

If the growth of stock indices continues, then, accordingly, commodity currencies, in particular, NZD, will continue to strengthen.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts of the pair NZD / USD turned to long positions. In case of continued growth of NZD / USD, the target will be the resistance level of 0.6500 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Below this level of resistance, negative long-term dynamics still prevail, and a return to the zone below the level of 0.6300 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of the decline in NZD / USD.

In this case, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820), 0.6205 (September lows), 0.6190 (local multi-year lows).

Support Levels: 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6300, 0.6322, 0.6378, 0.6406, 0.6485, 0.6505, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6740, 0.6830, 0.6865



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 0.6290. Stop-Loss 0.6325. Take-Profit 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6325. Stop-Loss 0.6290. Take-Profit 0.6378, 0.6406, 0.6485, 0.6505, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6740, 0.6830, 0.6865

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
Brent: prices remain vulnerable

05/03/2020


The price of oil continues to decline. It is likely that until a final turning point in the global stock market occurs, commodity prices, including oil, will remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Today, oil market participants will be waiting for the first results of the OPEC+ coalition meeting. The positive outcome of the meeting may be the first step towards the restoration of the oil market.

At the same time, lower interest rates by global central banks can help the global economy deal with the impact of a coronavirus outbreak. This will also positively affect oil quotes.

Investors expect the OPEC+ coalition to further reduce production to stabilize the oil market. At the same time, the exact amount of a possible additional decline in production, which is 1.7 million barrels per day, is not yet clear.

If the parties cannot agree on significant volumes of production cuts, then the positive effect of the meeting in Vienna will be short-lived.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel), the nearest targets will be support levels of 49.00 (local minimum), 48.00 (lower downward channel border on the daily chart).

Only a breakdown of the key resistance level of 62.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant. Below this resistance level, long-term negative dynamics prevail.

Support Levels: 50.00, 49.00, 48.00

Resistance Levels: 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.40, 62.00



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 54.40. Take-Profit 50.00, 49.00, 48.00

Buy Stop 54.40. Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 56.20, 56.90, 58.50, 60.40, 61.80

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: panic?

06/03/2020


Increased fears of a coronavirus pandemic plummeted global stocks at the start of today's European session. The DXY dollar index fell below 96.00, and the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by almost 18%, to 0.723%, to historical lows.

The growth of almost panic investor sentiment was facilitated by information on the penetration of coronavirus into the United States. EUR / USD updated the highs of July 2019, breaking through the psychologically significant resistance level of 1.1300, and reached the first critical resistance level of 1.1340 at the beginning of today's European session (EMA144 on the weekly chart). If the growth of EUR / USD does not stop, then the pair can reach the key resistance level of 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), the breakdown of which can signal the breaking of the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD.

Last Tuesday, the Fed unexpectedly lowered the interest rate by 0.50%, substantiating its decision with the need for preventive measures to maintain the American economy, which, according to Fed leaders, remains strong. The next Fed meeting will be held on March 18, and it is possible that the rate will be reduced again. By the way, US President Donald Trump after the Fed lowered the rate on Tuesday again called on the Fed to lower the interest rate even lower, down to 0%. “They (the Fed) are acting belatedly”, Trump said, but should, in his opinion, act ahead of events.

Today, volatility in the financial markets may rise again at 13:30 (GMT), when data from the US labor market will be published. Strong data expected.

Nevertheless, even if the data are confirmed or turn out to be better than expected (NFP is expected to grow by 175,000 new jobs), one should not expect a significant strengthening of the dollar and a fall in EUR / USD.

The fall of European stock indices leaves the euro, which is the funding currency, no chance of weakening.

In the current situation of growth of already almost panic moods, it makes no sense to expect a quick recovery of world stock indices. Technical analysis fades into the background.

And, nevertheless, you can’t completely forget about the alternative scenario. The first signal to start the correctional decline will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015), 1.1240 (ЕМА200 on the 5-minute price chart and highs of December 2019).

However, only the return of EUR / USD to the zone below the key support level of 1.1100 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will reassure investors and create the prerequisites for the pair to sell.

Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1100

Resistance Levels: 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1275. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1100

Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1275. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: the pound may also be under pressure

10/03/2020


After sharp movements in the financial and commodity markets on Monday, caused by the collapse of stock indices and oil prices, a pullback occurs on Tuesday, although markets are still far from complete stabilization. It is possible that everything is just beginning and the worst is to come. Last Friday, OPEC and Russia were unable to reach an agreement to reduce oil production. In response to the failure of the deal, Saudi Arabia has lowered the selling price of oil and is going to increase the supply. The price war in the oil market may negatively affect other markets.

Negative sentiment prevails in the markets, triggered by investor fear over the coronavirus and price war, which could erupt in the oil market. Investors are forced to sell the dollar and risky assets, going into defensive assets such as yen, gold, government bonds. Yields on 10-year US bonds fell on Monday to 0.342%, the absolute minimum, and gold quotes last Monday exceeded $ 1,700.00 an ounce, although they subsequently declined to $ 1,680.00 an ounce. The dollar fell especially significantly against European currencies and the yen.

At the beginning of today's European session, GBP / USD is trading near 1.3050, while the dollar is gradually winning back the positions it lost on Monday, although it remains vulnerable on the eve of the Fed meeting on March 17-18.

GBP / USD continues to trade in the zone above the important support level of 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In case of breakdown of the resistance levels 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the reduce of the GBP / USD in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3310 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) GBP / USD will resume the upward trend and head towards the levels resistance 1.3960 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1.4350 (highs of 2018), which will talk about breaking the bearish trend GBP / USD.

The first signal for the implementation of an alternative negative scenario will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.2965 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts). The reduction targets are located at the support levels of 1.2735 (lows of March), 1.2590 (lows of May 2019 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), 1.2400, 1.2200 (lows of October), 1.2000 (lows of 2019 and the Fibonacci level of 0%).

Bank of England future manager Andrew Bailey said last week that the central bank could take stimulus measures before the scheduled meeting (March 26) if it considers that the economy urgently needs support in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic. Many economists expect the UK central bank to lower its key interest rate to 0.5% from 0.75% this month. This may adversely affect pound quotes. If the Bank of England favors a further reduction in the interest rate, then the pound, which for the time being remains stable, may weaken sharply.

Support Levels: 1.3000, 1.2965, 1.2860, 1.2735, 1.2590, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2955. Stop-Loss 1.3075. Take-Profit 1.2860, 1.2735, 1.2590, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.3075. Stop-Loss 1.2955. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: “gloomy” prospects

11/03/2020


Financial markets continue to be in a fever amid growing coronavirus epidemics and the risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy. Another negative factor unexpectedly added to the coronavirus factor last Friday, when the OPEC+ coalition practically collapsed. Russia and Saudi Arabia could not agree on a further reduction in oil production and export. Oil prices crashed down. They were followed by global stock indices and other commodity prices.

Last Monday, at the beginning of the trading day, the AUD / USD pair broke through the multi-year support level of 0.6435 for a short time (11-year low and Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500). And although AUD / USD subsequently rose, reaching an intraday high of 0.6680, the pair resumed its decline on Tuesday.

In early March, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.5%, which was the fourth rate cut in less than a year. “Ready for further easing of monetary policy”, the RBA said.

The Australian government is now preparing to announce fiscal stimulus measures in response to the economic damage from the epidemic. It seems increasingly likely that, because of the coronavirus, Australia's economy could go into recession for the first time in 28 years.

The prospects for the Australian dollar look depressing, given the sharp drop in commodity prices, including coal, oil and petroleum products, and iron ore, the main commodities of Australian commodity exports.

At the beginning of today's European session, the AUD / USD pair is trading near the 0.6525 mark, falling from an intraday high of 0.6535 reached earlier. With any upward correction of AUD, you should probably look for opportunities to enter short positions, including in the AUD / USD pair. Although, entering in the short positions "by the market" is likely to be appropriate too.

Below the key resistance level of 0.6830 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downward global trend of AUD / USD prevails.

In the current situation and below the resistance level of 0.6655 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.

Support Levels: 0.6500, 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310

Resistance Levels: 0.6575, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6790, 0.6830



Trading Recommendations


Sell Stop 0.6480. Stop-Loss 0.6580. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310

Buy Stop 0.6580. Stop-Loss 0.6480. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6790, 0.6830

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: contradictory dynamics

12/03/2020


Today, investors will follow the ECB meeting, which will end with the publication at 12:45 (GMT) of the decision on interest rates. At 13:30 a press conference of the ECB will begin, during which the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will explain the decision of the bank, assess the prospects of the European economy and, probably, touch on further plans for the monetary policy of the bank, as well as answer questions from journalists.

Earlier this month, 4 of the world's largest central banks (RB of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, Bank of England) reduced interest rates. The Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England took unprecedented measures by cutting the interest rate by 0.50%, and the Fed and the Bank of England did this during an extraordinary meeting.

The ECB is also expected to expand the stimulus package and lower the key interest rate, which is already in negative territory, at -0.5%.

The markets are dominated by fear of the global coronavirus pandemic. Many global stock indices have already moved to the side of the bear market.

At the beginning of this week, the EUR / USD pair briefly exceeded the key resistance level 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which separates EUR / USD from the bullish trend.

At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.1230, below the important short-term support level of 1.1240 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), indicating a tendency to further decline.

Above the important support level 1.1120 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The return of EUR / USD into the zone above the level of 1.1240 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions, although probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market today.

Support Levels: 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: contradictory dynamics

12/03/2020


Today, investors will follow the ECB meeting, which will end with the publication at 12:45 (GMT) of the decision on interest rates. At 13:30 a press conference of the ECB will begin, during which the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will explain the decision of the bank, assess the prospects of the European economy and, probably, touch on further plans for the monetary policy of the bank, as well as answer questions from journalists.

Earlier this month, 4 of the world's largest central banks (RB of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, Bank of England) reduced interest rates. The Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England took unprecedented measures by cutting the interest rate by 0.50%, and the Fed and the Bank of England did this during an extraordinary meeting.

The ECB is also expected to expand the stimulus package and lower the key interest rate, which is already in negative territory, at -0.5%.

The markets are dominated by fear of the global coronavirus pandemic. Many global stock indices have already moved to the side of the bear market.

At the beginning of this week, the EUR / USD pair briefly exceeded the key resistance level 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which separates EUR / USD from the bullish trend.

At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.1230, below the important short-term support level of 1.1240 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), indicating a tendency to further decline.

Above the important support level 1.1120 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The return of EUR / USD into the zone above the level of 1.1240 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions, although probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market today.

Support Levels: 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490



Trading Recommendations


Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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