Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: short-term downward correction is likely

18/05/2017



Current dynamics

Aggravated in the US political uncertainty caused sales in global stock markets, especially American ones. Investors once again fear that the Trump administration will face difficulties in carrying out tax reform and budget incentives.

The dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The ICE dollar index, estimating its rate to the basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.4% to 97,685, being near the minimum mark since November 4. Yesterday was also associated with an increase in demand for asylum assets, such as the yen, gold, US government bonds. So, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell yesterday to 2.247% from 2.329%.

We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast: 240 000 (against 236 000 the previous week), which should negatively affect the dollar.

Also at the same time published an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in May. The result is higher than expected (19.5 against 22.0 in April) will strengthen the US dollar.


Support and resistance levels

Despite today's decline, the positive dynamics of the pair EUR / USD persists. On a strong positive momentum, the EUR / USD pair broke the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart near 1.1100. In case of resumption of growth and renewal of the local and annual maximum near the 1.1170 level, the targets will be levels 1.1280 (Fibonacci level 23.8% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), 1.1340 (EMA144 on a weekly basis Chart).

In case the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone below the support level 1.1100 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), the fall in the EUR / USD pair may accelerate into the channel. Strong levels of support are also levels 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950. Breakdown of support levels 1.0820 (EMA200), 1.0780 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will cancel the uptrend.

Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780

Resistance levels: 1.1156, 1.1170, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1175. Objectives 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780

Buy Stop 1.1175. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Objectives 1.1200, 1.1280. 1.1340

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: short-term downward correction is likely

18/05/2017



Current dynamics

Aggravated in the US political uncertainty caused sales in global stock markets, especially American ones. Investors once again fear that the Trump administration will face difficulties in carrying out tax reform and budget incentives.

The dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The ICE dollar index, estimating its rate to the basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.4% to 97,685, being near the minimum mark since November 4. Yesterday was also associated with an increase in demand for asylum assets, such as the yen, gold, US government bonds. So, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell yesterday to 2.247% from 2.329%.

We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast: 240 000 (against 236 000 the previous week), which should negatively affect the dollar.

Also at the same time published an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in May. The result is higher than expected (19.5 against 22.0 in April) will strengthen the US dollar.


Support and resistance levels

Despite today's decline, the positive dynamics of the pair EUR / USD persists. On a strong positive momentum, the EUR / USD pair broke the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart near 1.1100. In case of resumption of growth and renewal of the local and annual maximum near the 1.1170 level, the targets will be levels 1.1280 (Fibonacci level 23.8% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), 1.1340 (EMA144 on a weekly basis Chart).

In case the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone below the support level 1.1100 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), the fall in the EUR / USD pair may accelerate into the channel. Strong levels of support are also levels 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950. Breakdown of support levels 1.0820 (EMA200), 1.0780 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will cancel the uptrend.

Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780

Resistance levels: 1.1156, 1.1170, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1175. Objectives 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780

Buy Stop 1.1175. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Objectives 1.1200, 1.1280. 1.1340

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: American stock market rebounds

19/05/2017

Current dynamics

World and, above all, American stock markets are recovering after a serious fall two days ago. The fall of the dollar and US stock indices on Wednesday was caused by reports in the media that Trump allegedly asked former FBI director James Komi, who was dismissed from his post a few days earlier, to stop the investigation against Michael Flynn, who previously held the position of adviser President for national security. The news came after reports that Trump handed classified information to Russian authorities, which could harm the US national security. Against this background, talk of possible impeachment of Trump increased.

Nevertheless, since yesterday, there has been a recovery of the dollar and US indices. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, hastened to reassure investors.

Stephen Mnuchin said that "President Trump is determined to carry out the tax reform as quickly as possible". Loretta Mester, who is also a member of the FOMC of the Fed, gave a positive assessment to the US economy and said that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates to "avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability that may arise if the economy overheats".

The dollar and US indices received yesterday also support from published data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US, which declined for the third consecutive week, indicating a steady increase in the number of jobs. The index of business activity for May, published by the Fed-Philadelphia, significantly exceeded the expectations of economists, which also gave confidence to investors (38.8 against the forecast of 19.5 and 22.0 in April).

Today, the economic calendar for the United States is empty; however, it is worth paying attention to the speech of FOMC member and head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard (starts at 13:15 GMT). It is likely that Bullard, also following Mester, will point to a high probability of an early interest rate increase in the United States. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve on this issue will be held on June 13-14, and many investors are already laying a price hike on prices in this meeting.

According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase in rates next month is again estimated at 74%. On the one hand, the probability of an early increase in the interest rate is holding back from more active purchases on the American stock market, raising the rate makes the dollar more expensive. On the other hand, as the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, pointed out more often, the rate increase speaks about the strength of the American economy, and this is a positive factor for the dollar and the US stock market, which, nevertheless, is dominated by positive dynamics.


Support and resistance levels

As a result of the recent fall, the DJIA index has lost all the achievements of recent weeks, falling below the opening level of the previous month near the mark 20650.0. The DJIA index broke through the support level of 20620.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), falling to the level of 20500.0.

With the opening of today's trading day and the beginning of the European session, the DJIA index continues to recover, once again returning to the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes above the level of 21170.0 (absolute and annual highs).

To confirm the upward dynamics, the DJIA index needs to gain a foothold above the level 20825.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts turned to long positions.

Positive dynamics of the index can fully recover already above the level of 20820.0. Long positions can be opened already in the zone above the resistance level 20750.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

In an alternative scenario, the index should drop below the local and May low near the 20500.0 mark

If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery In February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21170.0).

The change in the bullish trend for the bearish will occur only after the DJIA index falls below the level of 19850.0. So far, the bullish trend prevails.

Support levels: 20620.0. 20500.0, 20360.0, 20110.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

Resistance levels: 20750.0, 20820.0, 20885.0, 20980.0, 21170.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 20610.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20820.0, 20885.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

Sell Stop 20610.0. Stop-Loss 20760.0. Take-Profit 20500.0, 20360.0, 20110.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: Investors' optimism is growing

22/05/2017



Current dynamics

The previous week, oil prices continued to rise. Optimism of investors was caused by media reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favor of a 9-month extension of the agreement. Other OPEC member countries support the extension of the deal to reduce production for 9 months, said Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih. According to Al-Falih, the extension of the deal until March 2018 will allow OPEC to achieve its goal and reduce world reserves to an average of 5-year level, and restore the balance in the oil market. As is known, at the end of last year, 13 OPEC countries and 11 countries outside the cartel agreed on a total reduction of oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels a day until June.

However, this was not enough to restore the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. Other major oil-producing countries, such as the United States and Canada, have been actively increasing production, while the countries participating in the agreement have reduced production.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published data according to which in the 1st quarter commercial oil reserves in developed countries increased by 24.1 million barrels. IEA data also indicate the growth of stocks in oil storage facilities and in April.

The US continues to increase oil production, which largely neutralizes the efforts of OPEC. So, according to the data provided by American oil service company Baker Hughes on Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States again rose to 720 units in the previous week.

Some economists doubt that the OPEC deal will have the desired effect on the supply surplus. The increase in the number of drilling rigs and the increase in production in the United States go faster and larger than expected. This could lead to the fact that production in the US will continue to grow, and support from OPEC in 2018 will end. In this case, the risks of a sharp drop in oil prices rise significantly against the backdrop of a growing surplus of oil supply.

Nevertheless, the oil market is on the rise. The next OPEC meeting will be held on May 25 in Vienna, and much in the future dynamics of oil prices will depend on the decisions taken at this meeting. If it is indeed decided to extend the agreement for another 9 months, and also expressed the intention to continue to actively influence the balance of the oil market in the direction of reducing the level of oil supply, then oil prices will be a powerful incentive for further growth.


Support and resistance levels

The previous week the price for Brent crude oil has significantly strengthened. The growth was almost 6%. The price has added 3 dollars per barrel, having risen to the level of 53.86 dollars.

Today's trading day began for oil with a small gap in price. However, in the future the momentum faded and the price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 54.00 (today's opening price).

Given that today the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, partially restoring its positions after a strong fall last week, it is also likely to reduce oil prices. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers, signaling an overdue downward correction.

The price is on the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart (level 54.00).

Withdrawal from this level will create prerequisites for further price reduction inside the channel to support levels of 52.35 (EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart), 52.05, 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart). A stronger correction is possible to support level 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).

If the support level breaks through 50.70, the price will go down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In case of consolidation below level 46.20 (the Fibonacci level of 50% and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

The scenario for price growth is connected with the breakdown of the level of 54.00 and further strengthening to the levels of 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 56.70 (April highs), 57.50, 58.40 (highs of the year).

On the daily and weekly charts, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions, and the price on the weekly chart is in the middle of the rising channel, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 62.00.

Support levels: 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20

Resistance levels: 54.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.50


Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 53.80. Stop-Loss 54.30. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70

Buy Stop 54.30. Stop-Loss 53.80. Take-Profit 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: commodity prices rose

23/05/2017



Current dynamics

Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in commodity prices, the NZD / USD pair has significantly increased over the past 1.5 weeks. Despite the growth of expectations of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the US dollar demonstrates a large-scale decline in the foreign exchange market. According to the CME Group, investors are expecting an increase in the Fed's key rate at a meeting scheduled for June 13-14 at 78.5% against 59% in mid-April. The probability of an increase in the rate in July is 80.0%, in September 86%. Nevertheless, the US dollar is losing all acquisitions since November 8, when the new US president was elected. The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, decreased by 0.1% to 88.60.

The NZD / USD pair also rose on the eve of the publication of forecasts for milk powder prices for the New Zealand company Fonterra, the largest dairy producer in the country. As you know, milk powder is the main export item of New Zealand. It is expected that the forecast of Fonterra for milk powder prices will rise to 6.75 US dollars per kilogram.

In addition, on Thursday (02:00 GMT), the budget of the New Zealand government is published for the fiscal year 2017-2018. It is expected that the budget will show a moderate surplus and reflect the good state of the national economy. The growth of the budget surplus and the New Zealand economy leads to an increase in expectations about the increase in the key interest rate of the central bank of New Zealand, which will positively affect the New Zealand dollar.

Nevertheless, the RBNZ stated that it will keep its stake on the same level due to the uncertainty surrounding the US economic and foreign trade policy up to Q3 2018.

If the Fed starts a gradual increase in the rate in the US, then the hours of the balance will be steadily and gradually tilt in favor of the US dollar. The difference between the monetary policies of RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next few months.

From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the US, which are published between 12:55 and 14:00 (GMT). Business activity indices (PMI) in the US manufacturing and service sectors for May (preliminary release) should show a slight increase (53.0 and 53.1, respectively). Also today, comments Fed representatives - Neil Kashkari and FOMC member Patrick Harker, at 13:00, 19:00 and 21:00, respectively.

At 22:45 (GMT), the main articles of New Zealand's foreign trade balance for April will be published, which is expected with a decrease in surplus (NZ $ 268 million versus NZ $ 332 million in the previous month). In this case, the New Zealand dollar may decline.

Tomorrow, the attention of traders will be focused on the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the last meeting of the committee on open market operations of the Fed ("FOMC minutes"), which may contain indications of the future of US monetary policy. Volatility, as always, is expected at this time high for all dollar pairs.


Technical analysis

As a result of growth during the last three trading sessions, the NZD / USD pair came close to the resistance level 0.7030 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, the upper limit of the descending channel on the weekly chart). A little below this level, near the mark of 0.7000, the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the daily chart. It's not easy to pass this level to NZD / USD pair.

Only in case of fastening above the resistance level 0.7070 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) can consideration of long medium-term positions in the NZD / USD pair.

The most likely rebound from the current level of 0.7030. As the political tension in the US decreases, the US dollar will begin to recover in the foreign exchange market. In this case, the high probability of a rapid increase in the interest rate in the United States will again come to the fore, and this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar.

The return of the pair NZD / USD under the support level 0.6945 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, March, April highs) will return the downward dynamics to the pair NZD / USD.

The targets will be the levels of 0.6885 (March lows), 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016), 0.6818 (May minima and the bottom line of the downward channel on Day chart).

In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6818, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818, 0.6800, 0.6680

Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: US indices recovered after falling

24/05/2017



Current dynamics

The US stock markets recovered completely after a sharp fall in the middle of last week, which arose amid growing political tensions in the US, which could become an obstacle to the implementation of President Donald Trump's program. However, strong corporate reports and positive fundamental macroeconomic indicators of the US helped keep the stock indices from a deeper fall. An additional positive factor for the US stock markets was yesterday the decline in political confrontation in the US after US President Donald Trump presented the draft budget for 4.1 trillion dollars. According to the budget, which provides for major changes in the social security system, the amount of US government spending in the next 10 years will be reduced by 4.5 trillion dollars. Tax cuts will also help increase economic growth. All together will help to cover the budget deficit, as it is supposed, for 10 years.

Yesterday's hearings in the US Congress, which did not reveal the links of President Donald Trump's campaign headquarters with Russia, also contributed to a reduction in domestic political tension in the United States.

The growth of shares of financial companies and oil and gas companies contributed to the increase in US stock indices for the fourth consecutive session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 20937.00 points yesterday, the S & P500 rose 0.2% to 2398.00 points, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.1% to 6138.00 points.

Today investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed (18:00 GMT), which will look for hints on the timing of the next rate hikes and on plans to reduce the balance of 4.5 trillion dollars.

As the head of the Fed-Philadelphia Patrick Harker said yesterday, "raising rates in June is quite possible". He considers it appropriate to raise interest rates this year two more times.

In itself, an increase in the interest rate will not be able to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, despite the fact that the dollar will receive strong support. As the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, stated more than once, "a rate hike speaks about the strength of the American economy".

From the US continue to receive positive macroeconomic data. Despite some deviation from the forecasted values in the smaller direction, in general, the indicators of inflation and the labor market of the USA point to the growth of the economy in the country. As long as the economy is growing, investors will prefer stocks and other asset-seekers shares and other high-risk risky instruments.

In general, the positive background for the main US stock indices remains.


Support and resistance levels

As a result of the four-day growth, the S & P500 index fully recovered losses suffered earlier amid renewed hype around the US president. With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index is trading in a narrow range, pending the publication of the minutes from the May meeting of the Fed. The positive dynamics of the S & P500 index is preserved. Since February 2016, the S & P500 index has been growing steadily and is in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.

At the moment, the S & P500 again tests the resistance level of 2400.0, reached in early March, for breakdown.

The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily chart again turned to long positions. In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be level 2415.0 (the upper limit of the uplink on the daily chart).

The reverse scenario will be associated with breakdown of the short-term support level 2386.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decrease with the nearest targets near the levels 2355.0 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 2326.0 (April lows). Only the breakdown of support levels of 2275.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2265.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.

Support levels: 2386.0, 2375.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2305.0, 2275.0, 2265.0

Resistance levels: 2400.0, 2415.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2385.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2375.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0

Buy Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2385.0. Objectives 2415.0, 2450.0, 2500.00

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: in the focus of OPEC

25/05/2017



Current dynamics

As the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia, OPEC and countries outside the cartel stated in Vienna today, they will probably leave the amount of reduction unchanged under the 9-month extension of the deal. According to the minister, if necessary, OPEC may increase the volume of production reduction, but so far it is not necessary. After the Saudi oil minister's speech, oil prices fell sharply.

Meanwhile, the increase in oil production in the US and other major oil-producing countries, largely offset the efforts of OPE to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this, apart other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.

In the US there is an active increase in oil production. So, according to the data provided by American oil service company Baker Hughes on Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States again rose to 720 units in the previous week.

The number of drilling in the US has been steadily increasing since the summer of last year. American investment companies continue to invest in shale companies. At the same time, American drilling companies have developed a number of financial protection tools that insure against losses in the event of a fall in prices. Innovations in the oil industry of the US economy make it possible to achieve all the best results in oil production. The increase in efficiency makes it possible to reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014. There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of supply of oil in the US will increasingly increase, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC.

If, at the OPEC meeting, it is announced that it is possible to expand the volume of cuts and further extend after the expiration of the next 9-month period, the price of oil will be a powerful stimulus for growth.

In general, the extension of the deal to reduce production in the same volumes was expected by market participants, and it is mostly already taken into account in prices. It is possible that after a small increase in oil prices will return to a downward trend.


Support and resistance levels

The price of Brent crude oil could not gain a foothold above the level of resistance at 54.30 (the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and in the course of today's European session is declining.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers. On the daily chart, indicators also unfold to short positions.

After the speech of Saudi Arabia's oil minister, the price dropped sharply, reaching a short-term support level of 53.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). If the price roll is repeated downward, and support levels of 53.00, 52.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart) will be broken, it is likely that the price will decline further to support level 51.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In the event of a breakthrough in the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) the price will go deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart and to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In case of consolidation below level 46.20 (the Fibonacci level of 50% and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.

The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level at 54.30 and further growth in the uplink channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.


Support levels: 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20

Resistance levels: 54.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.50



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 53.80. Stop-Loss 54.30. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70

Buy Stop 54.30. Stop-Loss 53.80. Take-Profit 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: pound is under pressure

26/05/2017



Current dynamics

Several fundamental factors that occurred this week contributed to the pound's weakening in the foreign exchange market. According to polls conducted on the eve of June 8, when early parliamentary elections will be held in Great Britain, the support of the ruling Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Teresa May, declined.

In the middle of last month Teresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections. The purpose of these elections is to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in the parliament on the eve of the June elections, in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of the supporters of the tough scenario Brexit.

However, among investors, there is growing doubt about the development of this scenario.

Another negative factor for the pound was the terrorist attacks in Britain, where explosions during the concert were blown up this week at the stadium in Manchester. Theresa May raised the level of the terrorist threat to a critical one.

From the side of the macro data, a portion of the negative also arrived. According to the data published yesterday, UK GDP growth for the first quarter was revised downward (+ 0.2% instead of 0.3%, + 2.0% instead of + 2.1% in annual terms, as reported in the first GDP estimate).

Thus, the pound was among the leaders of the fall this week. The GBP / USD pair seems to be closing this week with a decline of almost 1.0% or about 130 points.

From the news for today, we are waiting for data on the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) important macroeconomic indicators will be published: the adjusted value of the GDP index for the first quarter, orders for durable goods for April. If the value of GDP (the second estimate) is revised upward, the dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market, including in the GBP / USD pair. This will be another argument in favor of raising the interest rate in the US at a meeting of the Fed on June 13-14.

Conversely, if the indicators come out weaker than expected, this will lead to a decrease in the dollar. Today is Friday, the end of the last full trading week of the month. At the end of the US trading session, it is possible to fix short positions on the dollar, which can cause the dollar to rise and decline against it other major currencies, including the pound.


Support and resistance levels

The pair GBP / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.2950 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and falls to support level 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A little lower, at 1.2800 there is another strong support level of 1.2800 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In the case of an increase in negative dynamics and breakdown of support levels of 1.2700 (bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.2680 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the upward trend of the pair, which began in January 2017, could grow into a downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts went to the side of sellers.

On the weekly chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions.

You can return to consideration of long positions for the GBP / USD pair after its return to the zone above the level of 1.2950. In case of breakdown of the local maximum near the 1.3050 mark, the GBP / USD pair growth will resume within the upward channel on the daily chart. The closest target will then be the level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

Support levels: 1.2790, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2955. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340

Buy Stop 1.2955. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2990, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/NZD: at a strong support level

29/05/2017



Current dynamics

Last week, the US dollar strengthened strongly against the pound and about the same weakened against the New Zealand dollar (+ 1.8% and -1.9%, respectively).

The reason for this behavior of the dollar against the pound was associated with a massive decline in the pound in the foreign exchange market after the weak macro data on the UK came out and it became known that the gap between the Labor Party and the Conservative parties had significantly reduced before the elections to the country's parliament.

New Zealand's same currency strengthened after last week the New Zealand government has submitted a budget for 2017-2018. According to this document, a budget surplus is expected, strong GDP growth and tax cuts. The budget indicates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may soon begin to consider raising the interest rate in the country, which is currently one of the highest among the advanced economies (1.75%). The New Zealand dollar became the leader of growth last week.

Proceeding from the above, the fall of the pound against the New Zealand dollar is especially strong.

Today in the UK is a bank holiday. Important economic news in the calendar is also not contained.

Arguments for the growth of the NZD / USD pair:

• The GBP / NZD pair has reached an important support level of 1.8190 (200-period moving average on the daily chart). Even if there is a breakdown of this level and further reduction of the NZD / USD pair, before the further decline, a rebound from the level of support and corrective growth is possible.

• The GBP/NZD has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year.

• After a strong multidirectional movement last week against the US dollar, some correction is expected this week in NZD / USD, GBP / USD pairs.


Tomorrow (20:00 GMT) RBNZ will publish a semi-annual report on financial stability. If the report contains information about the difficulties and problems of the effectiveness of the financial system of New Zealand, the New Zealand currency after strong growth last week could significantly adjust, including in the pair GBP / NZD.


Support and resistance levels

The pair GBP / NZD broke through the short-term support level 1.8460 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and fell to the key support level 1.8190 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Near the level of 1.8460 also passes the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart.

Despite the fact that OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend sales, on short-term periods (1-hour and 4-hour) the indicators turned to long positions, signaling an upward correction. If the NZD / USD pair returns to a zone above 1.8460, its further growth may resume. The closest target will be the recent May highs near the level of 1.8490. More distant targets will be the levels of 1.9300, near which there is an upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart, 1.9750 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The key date in the further dynamics of the GBP / NZD pair will be June 8, when extraordinary elections to the British Parliament will be held. If the Conservatives win at the head of Prime Minister Theresa May, the pound may sharply strengthen in the currency market, including in the GBP / NZD pair.

The reverse scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the support level 1.8050 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and further decrease towards annual lows near the level of 1.6850.

Support levels: 1.8050, 1.7800, 1.7500, 1.7200, 1.6850

Resistance levels: 1.8460, 1.8940, 1.9300, 1.9750



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.8130. Stop-Loss 1.8210. Take-Profit 1.8050, 1.7800, 1.7500, 1.7200, 1.6850

Buy Stop 1.8210. Stop-Loss 1.8130. Take-Profit 1.8460, 1.8940, 1.9300, 1.9750

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: attention to retail sales data

30/05/2017



Current dynamics

The Australian dollar has recently remained one of the weakest against the US dollar. Despite the fact that earlier in the month the RBA retained the interest rate in Australia at 1.5%, among market participants the opinion is growing that the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to a record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak market Labor. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.

From the protocol published at the beginning of the month since the last meeting of the RBA, it follows that the bank as a whole is still optimistic about the situation in the Australian economy. However, according to the bank, "an increase in the interest rate will complicate the correction of the economy."

On Thursday, important macro data for Australia will be published, including retail sales for April and companies' investments for the first quarter. A slight, almost zero growth in the level of retail sales is expected in April (+ 0.3%). Another weak data on sales will strengthen the opinion of market participants that the interest rate in Australia will soon be lowered.

The RBA's restrained position on the rate in Australia and, conversely, the Fed's positive view on the process of raising the interest rate in the US strengthen the position of sellers of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

The negative medium-term dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains.


Support and resistance levels

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics at different time intervals show mixed dynamics.

Nevertheless, the pair AUD / USD continues to remain within the downward channel on the daily chart, trading below the important resistance levels 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014), 0.7470 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.

The nearest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November minima and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).

Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the pair AUD / USD prevails.


Support levels: 0.7420, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7460, 0.7470, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7465. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7465. Stop-Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

EuroStoxx50: decline in the fifth consecutive session

31/05/2017

Current dynamics

It seems that the main European stock indexes can finish this week in a negative territory. The election of the president of France is already behind, and the positive momentum begins to fade as weak macro statistics from the Eurozone arrive.

ECB President Mario Draghi earlier this week confirmed that economic recovery is accelerating, but core inflation is still too weak to change the monetary policy of the bank. Here and today in the Eurozone came some macro statistics, which confirm the words of Mario Draghi. So, the preliminary index of consumer prices (CPI) of the Eurozone in May grew by 1.4% (against the forecast of + 1.5% and + 1.9% in April). Unemployment in the Eurozone in April fell by 0.1%, but still remains high (9.3%).

Decrease in indices is observed throughout the world. So, the US stock indexes on Tuesday fell under the pressure of shares of oil and gas and financial companies. The oil and gas subindex in the S & P500 showed the worst results for the day, falling by 1.3%. The European StoxxEurope600 index lost another 0.3% on Tuesday, with banks and insurance companies leading the decline. The EuroStoxx50 index was down yesterday for the fifth consecutive session.

At the beginning of today's European trading session, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 3554.0, however, is under pressure from incoming weak macro statistics for the Eurozone.

As has been repeatedly announced by the leaders, the ECB is unlikely to go on winding up the extra soft monetary policy at the moment. The ECB management believes that the growth of the Eurozone economy is still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. So far, this supports European indices. And still, among investors, there is talk that the ECB may announce the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone. The ECB's next meeting on monetary policy will be held on June 8. As ECB leaders said earlier, the rate hike will not begin earlier than the quantitative easing program, at which the European Central Bank will buy European assets worth 60 billion euros a month, will be completed.


Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the month against the backdrop of the election of the new French president, the EuroStoxx50 index reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 3680.0. After that, a gradual decline in the index started, and at the moment the EuroStoxx50 index is traded at the short-term support level of 3550.0 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

If the EuroStoxx50 index falls further, the next target will be the support level of 3525.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).

The level is strong enough. In general, the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains. In case of rebound from the level of 3525.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume. At least, the ECB's propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy contributes to this.

Medium-term short positions will become relevant only after the EuroStoxx50 index falls below the level of 3500.0 (March and April highs on the eve of the first round of presidential elections in France). The reduction targets will be support levels 3435.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016), 3380.0 (EMA144), 3325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Support levels: 3525.0, 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0

Resistance levels: 3580.0, 3680.0, 3700.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 3520.0 Stop-Loss 3590.0. Take-Profit 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0

Buy Stop 3590.0. Stop-Loss 3520.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Against the background of weak macro data from China

01/06/2017



Current dynamics

After extremely volatile trading, the Australian dollar fell sharply during the Asian session today. After the release of optimistic data on retail sales in Australia in April (+ 1.0% vs. the forecast + 0.3%), the Australian currency strengthened. This is the largest monthly increase in more than two and a half years. However, soon the Australian dollar fell sharply after China's production report, which turned out to be weak, was published. The index of supply managers (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector from Caixin Media Co. In May, it fell to 49.6 (against 50.3 in April).

China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and a consumer of Australian iron ore and coal. The growth of the Australian economy still depends heavily on the commodity sector. And the decline in commodity prices, as well as the slowdown in the economy of the Australian partner countries, have a strong impact on the Australian dollar, undervaluing its value.

At the same time, despite the unexpected growth in retail sales in April, other statistics still indicate a limited increase in consumer spending. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.

The consumer confidence index is weak, salaries are growing slowly, and purchasing power is limited. House prices also began to decline, which unleashes the hands of the RBA in the matter of lowering the interest rate.

Earlier this month, the RBA retained its interest rate in Australia at 1.5%. However, the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak labor market.

At the same time, the US dollar is showing growth today in the foreign exchange market.

Despite the problems that have arisen with the administration of the US President in implementing the plans for a new economic policy, investors focus on positive macro statistics coming from the United States.

President of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today expressed confidence that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.

Thus, the difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA is the main driver for reducing the pair AUD / USD.

Today we are waiting for data from the USA. Between 12:15 and 14:00 (GMT) a whole block of important macroeconomic indicators is published. Among the data - the index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector (in May) and the index of gradual acceleration of inflation. We expect weaker indicators than in the previous month, which could negatively affect the dollar. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, the figures look very positive. Also worth paying attention to the report of ADP on the level of employment in the private sector of the US for May. Investors often consider it a harbinger of the NFP, although no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls is usually noted. Strong data positively affects the dollar. Here the growth is expected (185,000 versus 177,000 in April), which will support the US dollar. In general, macro statistics are expected to be very positive, which will have a positive impact on the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD.


Support and resistance levels

Since mid-March, the AUD / USD pair is actively declining in the downlink on the daily chart. The pair AUD / USD is below the important resistance levels 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, as well as the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour Chart).

The negative dynamics prevails.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November, May minima and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).

Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.


Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680



Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7420. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7420. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: pending publication of data from the labor market

02/06/2017

Current dynamics

The focus of attention of all participants of financial markets today is the publication of data from the US labor market, which is scheduled for 12:30 (GMT). Very positive data are expected. Thus, according to the forecast it is expected that the growth of the average hourly wage will be 0.2% (against 0.3% in April), unemployment will not grow (4.4% against 4.4% in April).

But perhaps the main focus will be on Non-Farm Payrolls (the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy).

Yesterday Automatic Data Processing Inc. And Moody's Analytics reported data that in May the number of jobs in the private sector in the US increased by 253,000, which is significantly better than the forecast (185,000 and 174,000 in the previous month). This is the highest growth in the number of jobs since 2014.

Recent positive macro data from the US significantly strengthened investors' opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25% on June 13-14. So, positive ADP data on employment contributed to the growth of the dollar and the yield of treasury bonds. The index of the dollar WSJ rose by 0.2%, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.225% from 2.198% recorded on Wednesday.

Investors are not so much worried about slipping into plans to reform the tax system and stimulate budget spending in the US, focusing on macroeconomic indicators. So, the index of business activity ISM published in the manufacturing sector (for May) released yesterday with a value of 54.9 (the forecast was 54.5 and 54.8 in April). The index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector of the US economy is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. Along with the data from ADP, the publication of the ISM index further stimulated the closing of short positions in the dollar on the eve of today's NFP publication.

The Fed pays particular attention to data on the number of jobs, and by many investors they are perceived as the most important indicator of the state of the American economy. Now, many investors expect the Fed to raise rates more rapidly.

That's the president of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today, that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.

If the data from the labor market, which are published today, really "do not disappoint", then the dollar will receive a powerful positive impulse before the Fed meeting on June 13-14. Then the market participants will have no doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors. Precious metals, which do not bring interest income, become cheaper in the conditions of the rate increase; the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.

With disappointing data on the US labor market, the dollar may weaken significantly in the foreign exchange market, and demand for precious metals, particularly silver, with the continuing political tension in the US around President Donald Trump will grow again.


Support and resistance levels

The pair XAG / USD could not gain a foothold above the key resistance level of 17.35 (EMA200 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and the third day is falling.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

The pair XAG / USD is in the zone of short-term support levels 17.18 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 17.14 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). If the NFP data prove to be strong, the pair XAG / USD will break through the levels of 17.18, 17.14 and go to the support level of 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to fall in the pair since August 2016 and level 20.59) with the prospect of a downward movement - 15.72 (low of 2016).

You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing a pair above the level of 17.35.

Support levels: 17.18, 17.14, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Resistance levels: 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.10. Stop-Loss 17.28. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Buy Stop 17.28. Stop-Loss 17.10. Take-Profit 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: on the eve of parliamentary elections

05/06/2017



Current dynamics

The PMI index (or the index of business activity) for the UK services sector in May was 53.8 (the forecast was 55.0, which is lower than the April index of the index 55.8). This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the service sector of Great Britain. The PMI of the UK service sector does not have such a strong impact on GDP as PMI in the manufacturing sector or the level of retail sales and consumer activity in the UK. At the same time, the decline in the PMI index for the service sector negatively affects the British currency. After the publication (08:00 GMT) of this index, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market.

Nevertheless, the GBP / USD pair closed its sharp decline (with a gap of 30 points after the next terrorist act in Great Britain last weekend) during today's European session at the opening of today's trading day.

Against the backdrop of the weakening dollar, the GBP / USD pair remains positive ahead of the June 8 elections to the UK Parliament.

As you know, in mid-April, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in Parliament.

It is likely that in these 3 days before the election to the UK Parliament the frequency of various sociological polls of the country's population will increase, which will cause an increase in the volatility in the pound trades.

The elections, which will be held in the UK on June 8, attract the attention of investors. In the case of a significant advantage of conservatives in parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May will probably be able to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If this happens, then the pound may significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.

This Thursday also will be a meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and next week will be a meeting of the Fed. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. Nevertheless, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. Probably, all the same, that the risks associated with the implementation of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump, as well as his statements about the desirability of a cheaper dollar, outweigh the sellers of the dollar.

Thus, if conservatives manage to get a convincing majority in the June 8 elections, then the GBP / USD pair can significantly strengthen. Otherwise, the pound and GBP / USD pair are expected to weaken in the foreign exchange market.

In any case, this week, especially on the eve of June 8, the pound is expected to have increased volatility with sharp movements in both directions.


Support and resistance levels

The GBP / USD pair is currently trading near the balance line and the level of 1.2885, through which the 200-period moving average passes on the 1-hour chart. The GBP / USD pair keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, above the key support levels of 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2800 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of buyers.

In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2925, the pair GBP / USD growth will resume, and the GBP / USD pair will go to the resistance levels 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

In the case of breakdown of the support level 1.2800 and further reduction in support, the level will be 1.2700 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

Further GBP / USD dynamics will in many respects be determined by the dynamics of the dollar and the comments of the Fed, which will be sounded on June 14, after the decision on the interest rate in the US is made.

Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: investors prefer safe havens

06/06/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to be under pressure following Friday's disappointing US labor market data for May. As you know, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the US fell by 0.1% to a level of 4.3%, the NFP was significantly below the forecast. The number of jobs outside of US agriculture in May increased by 138,000 compared with April (the forecast was +184,000).

Against the backdrop of a number of political and economic events that have recently occurred and are expected this week, investors prefer to withdraw their savings into safe haven assets - government bonds, yen, precious metals.

Strengthening tensions in the Middle East around Qatar, a number of recent terrorist attacks in Britain, lower expectations of budget stimulation of the US economy, the expectation of the speech of former FBI director James Komi before the US Congress on Thursday, as well as parliamentary elections in the UK and the ECB meeting also scheduled for Thursday - here are the main geopolitical risks that increase the demand for gold and other safe assets.

Gold enjoys strong demand even though the probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of gold. This precious metal does not bring interest income and can not compete with assets that generate such income, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the cost of acquiring gold and its storage is growing.

And, nevertheless, the increased geopolitical risks promote active purchases of gold.

So, at the beginning of today's European session, gold is trading near the level of 1288.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is $ 20 or 1.5% higher than the opening price of the current month.

At the same time, the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, fell to a value of 88.16, approaching the levels where it was before the victory of Donald Trump in the November 8 elections.

It is likely that before June 8, when the elections to the British Parliament and the ECB meeting on monetary policy are held, the pair XAU / USD will maintain a positive trend with a propensity for further growth.


Support and resistance levels

Having rebounded from the support level of 1220.00 (the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), since the middle of last month the pair XAU / USD continues to grow actively within the upward channel on the daily chart.

The nearest target and resistance level of 1292.00 (Year and April highs) can be passed to the nearest trading session. A more distant goal is the resistance level of 1305.00, just above which the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart. The highs of the previous wave of growth of the pair XAU / USD are near the level of 1370.00.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

The reverse scenario is related to the return of the pair XAU / USD to support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further decrease to support levels 1257.00 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%). Breakdown of the key support level of 1240.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.

Support levels: 1277.00, 1261.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00

Resistance levels: 1292.00, 1305.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1293.00. Take-Profit 1270.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00

Buy Stop 1293.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1400.00

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: GDP data supported the Australian dollar

07/06/2017



Current dynamics

While all the attention of investors is concentrated these days on Europe, the Australian dollar has received powerful support today from positive macro statistics and is actively growing in the foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and the AUD / USD pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive session.

According to the data released today, Australia's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.3% (the forecast was + 0.2%) against + 1.1% in the previous quarter and by 1.7% in annual terms (forecast was +1.5 %). The data turned out to be better than the forecast, which inspired market participants, who resumed purchases of the Australian currency, despite the fact that this is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2009.

The growth of the Australian economy continues for 26 years after the recession that ended in the early 1990s. Over the years, the country's economy has become one of the most sustainable in the world.

Nevertheless, slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP can not but alarm the monetary authorities and the Australian government.

As you know, yesterday, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved, the capacity utilization has increased, however, there are other risks for the country's economy that restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.

At the same time, the slowdown in China's economy, Australia's largest trade and economic partner, its high debt levels represent an external medium-term risk factor for economic growth in Australia.

On Thursday (01:30 GMT), the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the foreign trade balance of Australia for April. A decrease in the balance surplus is expected to reach 1.91 billion Australian dollars. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the export data, which is the most important component of the country's budget. Reduction of the balance and export level surplus may negatively affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.

Also on Thursday and Friday during the Asian trading session in China, published a number of important macroeconomic indicators (for May). If the data indicate deterioration in China's foreign trade balance and a slowdown in inflation, the Australian dollar may also react with a decline.


Support and resistance levels

The AUD / USD pair broke the key resistance level 0.7510 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at a strong positive momentum at the beginning of the month from the support level of 0.7375 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and on the weekly chart) and develops an upward trend.

The pair AUD / USD is trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts went to the side of buyers.

The pair's growth will continue with the targets of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014), provided the US dollar remains weak. A more distant medium-term goal in this case is the level of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). If the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains, this goal can be achieved by September-October of the current year.

The reverse scenario implies a return to the descending channel on the daily chart and the resumption of the decline in the wave that began in mid-March. The breakdown of the short-term support level at 0.7460 (EMA200 on 1-hour, 4-hour charts and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will confirm this scenario. The nearest medium-term goal in case of further decline in the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November and May lows). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum of wave in the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.

Support levels: 0.7510, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7490. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7760

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: US stock indexes are rising

08/06/2017



Current dynamics

Despite all the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the uncertainty in the world political arena observed in recent weeks, the US stock market remains stable, as evidenced by the continued growth of major US stock indexes.

While the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, declined in recent months to a level near the level of 88.00 (on Tuesday the index closed at a minimum since November 4), and the yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to the level of 2.1 % -2.2%, US stock indexes are breaking new records. So, the S & P500 index rose by 1.2% in May. DJIA and S & P500 rose for the second month in a row. But the biggest increase is demonstrated by the technological index Nasdaq, which in May grew by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index has been growing for the seventh month in a row.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes shares of the largest US banks, also demonstrates a stable upward trend, which began in February last year.

Even after the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market, published last Friday, the main US stock indexes rose again. The unemployment rate reached a minimum in May for 16 years, down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April. In general, the report on the US labor market is favorable enough for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The probability of this is estimated by investors at about 90%.

"Given the good state of the economy", as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said last week, we can expect further growth in US stock indices, even though the Fed will raise the interest rate.

Uncertainty about the implementation of the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump seems to be less worrisome for investors who are betting on the growth of the US stock market.

Today and tomorrow, a volatility surge is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that

the ECB decides on the interest rate, there will be elections in the UK, and in the US, a former FBI head James Komi will speak in a Senate committee, testifying to the possible impact of Russia on the election campaign in the US, which can further complicate the position of President Donald Trump . The most cautious traders today took a wait-and-see attitude.

With respect to the US stock indices, we can say that strong corporate reports for the first quarter, evidence of a stable recovery in the US economy, and a policy of gradual increase in interest rates in the US create the basis for further growth of the US stock market.


Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the month the DJIA index exceeded the recent annual highs near 21170.0 and closed last week at the new absolute maximum of 21200.0.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts continue to remain on the side of buyers. The DJIA index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. In case of breakdown of the level 21200.0, the growth of the index may continue.

In the alternative scenario, a short-term correction to the lower border of the uplink and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart (level 21115.0) is possible. Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20600.0).

If the downward trend is to increase, then the decline in the index may extend to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% are near the mark of 21170.0).

The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 19850.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.

Support levels: 21170.0, 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0

Resistance levels: 21200.0, 22000.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 21090.0. Take-Profit 21220.0, 22000.0

Sell Stop 21090.0. Stop-Loss 21220.0. Take-Profit 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

XAG/USD: The dollar is strengthening

09/06/2017

Current dynamics

The third trading session the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market against the assets-shelters - yen, franc, precious metals. The dollar received an additional positive impulse today after the first results of the elections to the UK Parliament became known, and after the ECB yesterday's meeting. As you know, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0%, the deposit rate - at the level of -0.4%, the rate on marginal loans - at the level of 0.25%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys European assets worth 60 billion euros, has also remained unchanged.

The pound today collapsed in the foreign exchange market immediately after the first results of the exit poll of the elections became known yesterday at 21:00 (GMT), according to which the Conservatives and its leader, the current Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa May, failed to achieve an absolute majority in the country's parliament. The ruling Conservative party, although it remains the largest in the parliament, received 314 of 650 seats. Most votes are provided by 326 seats. Any factors that increase uncertainty around Brexit will be negative for the pound and the British stock market.

The US dollar, meanwhile, is building up its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, rose yesterday by 0.1%, to 88.21.

Now, after the ECB meeting, investors' attention shifts to a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on June 13-14. Most market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.25%.

August gold futures fell 1.2% yesterday, to 1278.20 dollars per troy ounce.

Other precious metals, in particular silver, are also falling in price. The pair XAG / USD is down today for the third consecutive session, trading during today's European session near the mark of 17.35 dollars per troy ounce. The probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.

And, nevertheless, the continuing geopolitical risks, as well as political uncertainty in the UK, the US, France, where elections to the local parliament will also take place this weekend, support the demand for precious metals.

Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market of Canada, which may increase volatility in the foreign exchange market.


Support and resistance levels

For the past 4 weeks, the pair XAG / USD has skyrocketed in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of which is close to the level of 17.86.

At the moment, after a three-day corrective decline, the pair XAG / USD is trading near support levels of 17.25 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.

The reduction scenario is associated with a breakthrough in the support level at 17.25 and a further decline in the downward channel on the daily chart with targets of 16.85 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016 ).

The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD are the levels of 17.58 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.

More distant medium-term targets are the levels 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

In the dynamics of the pair XAG / USD, one should pay attention to the current correlation with the pairs USD / JPY (-85%), XAU / USD (71%). Given the rather high cross-correlation, and how these pairs are relative to key support levels (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the conclusion suggests: either the pair XAG / USD will grow slightly (within 1.0% - 1.5%), Or remain at the current level of 17.35 (key support level (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), but provided that the dollar in pairs USD / JPY, XAU / USD increases by the same amount (1.0% - 1.5%).

In the current situation of geopolitical uncertainty and on the eve of the Fed meeting next week, both options are possible.

Support levels: 17.35, 17.25, 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Resistance levels: 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.23. Stop-Loss 17.46. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72

Buy Stop 17.46. Stop-Loss 17.23. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: when will the pair begin to decline?

13/06/2017



Current dynamics

This week a number of important events will take place: meetings of central banks of Switzerland, Great Britain, Japan. However, the focus of traders will be a two-day meeting of the Fed (June 13-14) and the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which will be published June 14 at 18:00 (GMT). Forecast: the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 1.25%. After the decision on the interest rate, a comment on the monetary policy (FOMC Statement) is published and the press conference of the Federal Reserve begins. In the period of publication, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, and market participants will study the statement of the Fed on the presence of signals for further plans for monetary policy.

Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors, and putting pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies. If the Fed signals about the possibility of one or two more rate increases this year, the US dollar will receive significant support.

Also on Wednesday (at 22:45 GMT) a report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter is published. Forecast: + 0.7% (previous value + 0.4%). The publication of data will cause increased volatility in NZD. Against the background of rising prices for agricultural products in recent years (especially for dairy products, which is an important part of New Zealand's exports), it is likely that the report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter will come with positive indicators, and this will positively affect the positions of the New Zealand currency.

If the GDP report turns out to be worse than expected, and the Fed signals about the possibility of further interest rate hikes, then the NZD / USD pair may drop sharply and finally begin a corrective downward movement to the pair's active growth from the middle of last month.

Otherwise, the pair NZD / USD will continue its upward movement against the backdrop of positive macro data coming in from New Zealand recently.

We also await data from New Zealand on the balance of payments for the first quarter (it is expected that the negative balance was 1 billion New Zealand dollars against the surplus of 1.18 billion NZ dollars in the 1st quarter of last year), which are published today at 10:45 (GMT) And data from China (retail sales, industrial production in May) on Wednesday morning, which will increase the volatility of trades on the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance levels

As a result of active growth, which began in the middle of last month, the pair NZD / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 0.7190 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and came close to the resistance level of 0.7235 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave from the level of 0.8800 , Which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).

A little higher, through to the resistance level of 0.7270 is the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart. Thus, the NZD / USD pair is in the zone of strong resistance levels. For further growth and breakdown of these levels, the pair NZD / USD needs strong positive fundamental drivers, for example, signals from the RBNZ about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in New Zealand. The next meeting of the RBNZ on this issue will be held on June 21, ie. Already next week.

As you know, RBNZ last month kept interest rate at 1.75% and stated that interest rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time, at least until the third quarter of 2019. If, however, in the rhetoric of the bank will be marked a more rigid position, the New Zealand dollar will receive a strong support, and then the resistance level of 0.7270 can be passed.

Otherwise, the New Zealand dollar and the pair NZD / USD are waiting for a decline.

While the RBNZ seeks to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, the Fed says it plans to gradually tighten monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next couple of years, despite the possible growth periods for the NZD / USD pair over several weeks.

The return of the pair NZD / USD to the short-term support level 0.7165 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further decline in the NZD / USD pair and in the medium term with a target near the key support level of 0.7050 (EMA200, EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart).

By the way, indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily period begin to unfold on short positions.

Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818

Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7190. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6820

Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons

14/06/2017



Overview and dynamics

Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%.

Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance.

The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed.

So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US.

If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market.

As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years.

Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country.

The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics



Technical analysis

Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining.

The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.

At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart.

The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart).

Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110

Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com