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Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by TifiaFX, Mar 14, 2017.

  1. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    USD/CAD: Market Expectations

    17/04/2019


    On Wednesday, commodity currencies strengthened against the US dollar against the backdrop of favorable statistics from China.

    At 12:30 GMT Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada will present data on foreign trade in Canada and data on inflation. Consumer prices in February rose by 1.5% (+ 1.4% in January) in annual terms and the base consumer price index rose by + 1.5%. If the data for March are worse than the previous values, then this will negatively affect the CAD. Data better than the forecast and above the previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar.


    Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3260 (EMA144), 1.3210 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

    USD / CAD declined during the Asian session, breaking short-term strong support levels of 1.3350 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3340 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

    The breakdown of the local support level of 1.3300 may increase the risks of further USD / CAD decline with targets at the support levels of 1.3260, 1.3210.

    The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the levels of 1.3340, 1.3350 with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3450 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700), 1.3660 ( the highs of 2018), 1.3790 (the highs of 2017).

    Support Levels: 1.3320, 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3210, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045

    Resistance Levels: 1.3340, 1.3350, 1.3370, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



    Trading scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3155, 1.3090, 1.3045

    Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3370, 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  2. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

    04/18/2019


    Weak macro data from Europe and published at the beginning of the European session on Thursday caused a weakening of the Euro and a drop in the EUR / USD pair.

    The preliminary PMI indexes for April were lower than expected. Eurozone production PMI was 47.8, which is below the forecast of 47.9. The compound PMI of the Eurozone was 51.3 against the forecast of 51.8.

    The data presented increase the likelihood of further easing of the ECB’s monetary policy.


    Having broken through a strong support level of 1.1285 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart, as well as a Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), EUR / USD reached a week low near the 1.1243 mark. Breakdown of this local support level will cause further weakening of EUR / USD with targets located at support levels of 1.1210 (November lows), 1.1190 (March and year lows), 1.1120, 1.1000.

    An alternative scenario will be associated with a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1300, which will create prerequisites for a stronger upward correction to the resistance levels of 1.1390 (EMA144), 1.1440 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

    Short positions are preferred.

    In the period from 12:30 to 14:00 GMT, important macro data from the US will be published, which will cause an increase in market volatility. Among the published data that should be noted are the preliminary PMI business indices in the USA for April, as well as data on retail sales. Data worse than the forecast will negatively affect the dollar, which will cause its sales and fixation of long positions on it before the long weekend, associated with the meeting of the Catholic Easter.


    Support Levels: 1.1250, 1.1240, 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000

    Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1390, 1.1440



    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 1.1240. Stop Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1190, 1.1120, 1.1000

    Buy Stop 1.1290. Stop Loss 1.1240. Take-Profit 1.1320, 1.1390, 1.1440

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  3. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    AUD/USD: Support and Resistance Levels

    19/04/2019


    The US dollar strengthened sharply last Thursday. The strengthening of the dollar was triggered by the fall of the euro on weak macro statistics, which came from the Eurozone at the beginning of the European session on Thursday. In the afternoon, the dollar continued to strengthen on positive statistics from the US.

    The AUD / USD pair dropped on Thursday by 0.44% to 0.7148. Financial market participants fear that European problems may spread to other regions, weakening demand for commodities.

    Nevertheless, the indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions. The resumption of corrective growth can direct the pair AUD / USD to resistance levels of 0.7170, 0.7217. However, growth above the level of 0.7217 is unlikely.

    Below resistance levels 0.7170 (EMA144), 0.7217 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.

    In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.7142, AUD / USD will move to the support level of 0.7127 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).

    Break of this level will increase the risk of a return to the global bearish trend. In this case, AUD / USD will go towards the support levels of 0.7025, 0.6980, 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).

    Support Levels: 0.7142, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980

    Resistance Levels: 0.7170, 0.7200, 0.7217, 0.7295



    Trading recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7230. Take-Profit 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7053, 0.7025, 0.6980

    Buy Stop 0.7230. Stop Loss 0.7160. Take-Profit 0.7295

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  4. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    WTI: Current Dynamics

    04/29/2019


    On Monday, oil prices are rising again after a strong fall the day before. Investors were frightened by Donald Trump’s statement on Friday that he once again offered OPEC to lower oil prices. “Gasoline prices are falling. I called OPEC and said that we need to lower them (oil prices). You (OPEC) need to lower them”, Trump said.

    Earlier, President Trump repeatedly appealed to OPEC (on his Twitter account) to increase production and thereby help lower prices. And every time the oil market reacted to this by falling quotes. Also happened this time.

    However, Saudi Arabia refused to give an obligation to increase production, and OPEC reported that Trump no longer turned to this organization with new calls with an increase in oil supplies.

    According to Baker Hughes’s Friday data, the number of drilling rigs in the United States last week fell by 20 and reached an annual minimum of 805. These data, indicating slowing production in the United States, along with risks of disruptions in oil supplies from Libya and Venezuela, should also support oil quotes.

    On Wednesday, May 1 (14:30 GMT) the next weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will be published. Stocks are expected to increase by 2.093 million barrels. This is negative information for oil prices. If the forecast is not confirmed, then the price of oil expects another wave of growth.

    Since November, Iranian oil exports have declined from 2.3 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day in March. The new US approach to solving the problem of reducing the export of Iranian oil (last Monday, the White House announced that the US will not extend temporary permits to import Iranian oil, which expires on May 2) could trigger a new reduction in Iranian oil exports, from 1 million barrels per day up to 500,000 barrels per day.


    On Friday, the price dropped sharply, breaking through the strong support level of 63.50 (Fibonacci level 61.8%). Earlier, the price of WTI crude oil reached $66.50 per barrel, a new multi-month high.

    The price maintains a positive trend, being above the key support level of 59.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart, Fibonacci 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). From a strong short-term support level of 61.95 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) a rebound and renewed growth is possible.

    Only a breakdown of support levels of 56.50 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.

    Above the support level of 61.95 long positions are preferable.

    Support Levels: 61.95, 59.50, 56.75, 55.40

    Resistance Levels: 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00



    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 61.60. Stop Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 59.50, 56.75, 55.40

    Buy Stop 63.60. Stop Loss 61.80. Take-Profit 64.40, 66.50, 68.00

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  5. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    USD/CAD: Before Important Events

    30/04/2019


    According to data published at the beginning of today's Asian session, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector in China fell to 54.3 in April from 54.8 in March. The index for the non-production sphere reflects the dynamics of activity in such areas as retail, air travel, software development, real estate market and construction. The decline was due to a weakening of demand and activity in construction.

    The official PMI for the manufacturing sector in China also fell in April, to 50.1 from 50.5 in March. The decline in the index was due to the weakening of production and domestic demand.

    According to Caixin, PMI for China's manufacturing sector in April was 50.2 against 50.8 in March. Unlike the official index, which reflects the dynamics of activity of large state-owned companies, PMI Caixin pays more attention to the status of private producers.

    The data presented caused a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, primarily against the RMB and commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.

    In the course of the European session, the dollar is falling again. Investors are switching their attention to future important events. On Wednesday (18:00 GMT) the decision of the Fed on the interest rate will be published, and on Friday (12:30 GMT) - data from the US labor market.

    Some economists expect the Fed to cut rates in December due to lower US inflation rates. Comments by Fed officials and labor market data will provide insight into the current state of the US economy and give the dollar a new impulse, either for growth or for decline.


    Despite the current decline, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3280 (EMA144), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of local resistance levels of 1.3480, 1.3520 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1.3660 (highs of 2018), 1.3790 (highs of 2017).

    Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230

    Resistance Levels: 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.3425. Stop-Loss 1.3490. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3300, 1.3280, 1.3230

    Buy Stop 1.3490. Stop Loss 1.3425. Take-Profit 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  6. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

    Eurodollar continues to decline. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, EUR / USD is trading at 1.3020. Pending publication (12:30 GMT) of a report from the US labor market, trading volumes are declining. If the report (average hourly wage, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, the unemployment rate) will be better than the forecast (+ 0.3% (against + 0.1% in March) / 180,000 (against 196,000 in March ) / 3.8% (against 3.8% in March)), then the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR / USD will continue.

    The alternative scenario implies a rebound and the beginning of an upward correction of EUR / USD with targets at resistance levels of 1.1190, 1.1200 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1210, 1.1244 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A more distant goal of the correction is resistance levels of 1.1255 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900 started in May 2014), 1.1360 (EMA144), 1.1410 (EMA200 on the daily chart). Below resistance level 1.1285 short positions are preferable.

    Support Levels: 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Resistance Levels: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.1210, 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410



    Trading recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1125, 1.1100, 1.1000

    Buy Stop 1.1220. Stop-Loss 1.1155. Take-Profit 1.1244, 1.1285, 1.1360, 1.1410

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  7. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    XAU/USD: current dynamics

    06/05/2019


    US President Donald Trump once again shocked the markets with his statement. On Sunday, he tweeted: “For 10 months, China paid the US $ 50 billion in high-tech products at a rate of 25% and 10% in other products worth $ 200 billion. These payments partially explain our huge economic success. These 10% will increase to 25% on Friday". He also wrote about the imminent imposition of duties in the amount of 25% on imports of goods that were not subject to duties from China in the amount of $ 325 billion.

    Chinese yuan and Chinese stock indexes collapsed at the opening of the trading day on Monday.

    Quotes of gold again crawled up. The pair XAU / USD at the beginning of the European session was trading near the mark of 1282.00, above the key support level of 1275.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

    Above the key support levels of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).

    An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the support level of 1268.00 and

    decrease of XAU / USD in the direction of the important support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%). Breakdown of this level will return XAU / USD to the global bearish trend with targets at support levels of 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows).

    Support Levels: 1279.00, 1277.00, 1275.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

    Resistance Levels: 1288.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1274.00. Stop Loss 1288.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

    Buy Stop 1288.00. Stop Loss 1274.00. Take-Profit 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  8. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

    05/07/2019


    On Sunday, US President Donald Trump unpleasantly surprised investors with two Twitter messages that by Friday duties on Chinese goods would be increased. Trump's statements provoked a sharp drop in many global markets.

    US Trade Representative Robert Lightheiser stated that in recent days "China has retreated from its promises". According to Lightheiser, duties on Chinese goods will be increased on Friday, as Trump warned.

    The economy of New Zealand is closely connected with the economy of China, which is the largest buyer of raw materials and food (primarily meat and dairy) goods from New Zealand. Therefore, any negative information from China also negatively affects the NZD quotes.

    On Tuesday, NZD / USD declines again after falling the previous day. The next meeting of the RBNZ will be held on Wednesday, and the decision on the rate of the RBNZ will be published on Wednesday at 02:00 (GMT). Probably, the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 1.5%.

    Currently, NZD / USD is again attempting to break the local support level of 0.6600. Its breakthrough may trigger a further decline to support levels of 0.6510, 0.6430.

    So far, short positions look preferable.

    Support levels: 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

    Resistance levels: 0.6660, 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060



    Trading scenarios


    Sell Stop 0.6590. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

    Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  9. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    S&P500: Current Situation

    05/08/2019


    In April, the S&P500 updated the annual and absolute maximum near the 2959.0 mark. On Wednesday, the decline in the S&P500 continues despite the fact that, overall, the positive trend continues.

    While the S&P500 index is trading above the key support level of 2770.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive trend remains. Long positions are preferred above this level.

    Nevertheless, negative information, first of all, the negative course of negotiations between US and Chinese trade representatives, as well as negative economic news from the US, will cause a decrease in indices, and, as the worst-case scenario, will provoke another wave of decline.

    The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.

    On Wednesday, the publication of important macro data is not planned, and Europe celebrates Victory Day. The decline in world and US indices may continue, while representatives of China and the United States will seek a solution to the situation.

    Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

    Resistance Levels: 2885.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 2858.0. Stop Loss 2902.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

    Buy Stop 2902.0. Stop Loss 2858.0. Objectives 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  10. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    AUD/USD remains in a long-term bearish trend.

    05/10/2019


    On Friday, the United States raised duties on imports of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, as previously promised by US President Donald Trump. He also said on Thursday that the US will introduce new duties in the amount of 25% on the import of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 325 billion. Thus, all goods imported from China to the United States will be subject to duties of 25%.

    The foreign exchange market, on the whole, on Friday rather restrainedly reacted to this news, since it was already mainly taken into account in prices.

    Meanwhile, the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and the country's finance minister Stephen Mnuchin met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and agreed to continue the discussion on Friday. This allows us to preserve hope for further progress in the negotiations and the fact that both parties will come to a solution to the conflict.

    From the news today, investors will also pay attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. It is expected that the consumer price index rose in April by + 0.4% (+ 2.1% in annual terms). If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will strengthen, including with respect to AUD. With the escalation of international trade wars, the American dollar is in demand and looks more preferable than AUD.

    AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.7000 mark.

    Below resistance levels 0.7011 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7065 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) short positions are preferable.

    Breakdown of the local support level of 0.6980 will increase the risks of further decline towards support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (lows of 2016).

    Support Levels: 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830

    Resistance Levels: 0.7011, 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7020. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6910, 0.6830

    Buy Stop 0.7020. Stop Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.7065, 0.7145, 0.7190

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  11. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    S&P500: Current Dynamics

    05/13/2019


    Despite negotiations, on Friday the White House raised customs duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%. Moreover, the USA threatened to introduce additional duties for another 325 billion dollars, i.e. on all Chinese imports. Beijing said it would retaliate.

    The aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China led to increased fluctuations in world markets. Last week, the US S & P 500 index suffered the most severe losses since the beginning of the year.

    Many economists have warned that new duties and barrage trade barriers threaten the United States with a slowdown in economic growth.

    On Monday, the major US stock indices are falling, and futures for the S & P500 index at the beginning of the European session is trading near the mark of 2848.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.

    In case of fixation below the support level of 2860.0, the S & P500 will go to support level of 2770.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). While the S & P500 index is trading above this key support level, long-term positive dynamics remain.

    Nevertheless, purchases can be resumed after the S & P500 consolidates in the zone above the short-term resistance levels of 2883.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 2890.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

    The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily, 4-hour, 1-hour charts turned to the short positions, signaling a likely continuation of the decline.

    Support Levels: 2860.0, 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

    Resistance Levels: 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 2840.0. Stop Loss 2870.0. Objectives 2810.0, 2770.0, 2720.0

    Buy Stop 2870.0. Stop Loss 2840.0. Objectives 2883.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  12. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    AUD/USD: trade conflict between the US and China threatens the global economy

    05/14/2019


    Last Monday, China announced its intention to raise duties on US imports of about $ 60 billion in response to US actions on Chinese imports. This raised investors' concerns that the US-China trade standoff would lead to a further slowdown in the global economy.

    According to economists, because of the trade war, China’s GDP growth in 2019 could be less than 6%, and the US dollar / Chinese yuan pair could rise to 7.2000.

    The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, said on Monday that the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China increases the risk of negative developments in the economy.

    Financial markets reacted to these events with a fall in stock indices, a rise in the price of the Japanese yen, government bonds and gold, as well as a fall in commodity prices and commodity currencies. First of all, it refers to the Australian dollar. China is Australia's largest trading and economic partner and a buyer of its commodities, such as liquefied gas, coal, iron ore, and gold.

    External and internal macroeconomic background contributes to increasing pressure on the RBA in the direction of lowering the interest rate, and on the Australian dollar - in the direction of its further reduction.

    In this situation, the AUD / USD pair is likely to continue to decline, even regardless of the Fed's actions. With the escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar still looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy in this situation.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Trading Scenarios

    AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The last wave of decline began in January 2018 from the level of 0.8120. AUD / USD remains under pressure below key resistance levels of 0.7140 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7185 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

    Nevertheless, the breakdown of the resistance levels of 0.6995 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7055 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) may provoke a continuation of the upward correction to the resistance level of 0.7140. At the moment and below the resistance levels of 0.7140, 0.7185, short positions with targets at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows) are preferable.

    Support Levels: 0.6910, 0.6830

    Resistance Levels: 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6965. Take-Profit 0.6910, 0.6830

    Buy Stop 0.6965. Stop Loss 0.6935. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6995, 0.7055, 0.7140, 0.7185

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    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  13. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    WTI: the price has reached the zone of important support levels

    05/15/2019


    Participants in the oil market are concerned about the escalation of trade confrontation between China and the United States and the slowdown in global economic growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day. These are negative fundamental factors for oil prices. At 14:30 (GMT), the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy will publish its regular weekly report, according to which, reserves are expected to grow by 2.984 million barrels. If the forecast is confirmed, oil prices may resume their decline.

    At the beginning of the European session on Wednesday, WTI crude oil is trading near the 61.10 mark, through which there is a strong support level (EMA50 and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of this level, the price will fall to support levels of 59.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 59.50 (Fibonacci level 50% of the upward correction to a fall from the highs of the last few years near the 76.80 mark to the support level near the 42.14 mark). Above these levels, a long-term upward trend is maintained.

    If China and the United States nevertheless succeed in reaching an agreement, while negotiations between the representatives of the two countries continue, it is likely that oil prices will rise again.

    The signal for the resumption of purchases will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 61.85 (EMA200 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts). In this case, the price will go to the recent highs near the 66.50 mark and further, to the 70.00 mark, through which the upper line of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart.

    The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level of 59.50 and a decrease to the support level of 57.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Breakdown of support levels 57.00, 55.40 (Fibonacci 38.2%) will revive the bearish trend.

    Support Levels: 61.10, 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40

    Resistance Levels: 61.85, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 60.60. Stop Loss 62.10. Take-Profit 59.90, 59.50, 57.00, 55.40

    Buy Stop 62.10. Stop Loss 60.60. Take-Profit 63.50, 64.40, 66.50, 68.00, 70.00

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  14. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

    05/16/2019


    The pound continues to fall. The situation around Brexit has remained the main driver of the pound since mid-2016, when a Brexit referendum was held. At this time, the pound falls on information from the fact that the Prime Minister may lose his post, and his place will be taken by a supporter of tough Brexit.

    Theresa May was unable to advance in negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to support the Brexit agreement. And even among the members of her Conservative Party, there are more and more of her opponents.

    Having broken through the key support levels of 1.3045 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.3020 (EMA144 on the daily chart), on Thursday the GBP / USD pair has been falling for 9 days in a row and is trading on Thursday at the beginning of the European session, near the 1.2830 mark.

    Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions.

    A further weakening of the pound will lead to a decline in GBP / USD to support levels of 1.2700 (lows of October and August 2018), 1.2600.

    Purchases will be possible only after GBP / USD returns to the zone above the short-term resistance level of 1.2960 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) with growth targets at resistance levels of 1.3045, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of GBP / USD in the wave, started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3370 (March and year highs), 1.3610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

    So far, short positions are preferred.

    Support Levels: 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600

    Resistance Levels: 1.2870, 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2778, 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600

    Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3020, 1.3045, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3167, 1.3210

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  15. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    AUD/USD: Current Dynamics

    05/17/2019


    The US dollar rose on Thursday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major currencies, rose by 32 points on Thursday, to 97.68. Published US economic data exceeded expectations, which increased investor risk appetite.

    According to data released on Thursday, the number of new homes in the United States has increased by 5.7% in April compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.235 million units; the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 212,000 (compared with the forecast of 220,000 and 228,000 in the previous weekly period).

    On Friday, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 14:00 GMT) of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The index is an indicator of consumer confidence in economic growth. High result strengthens USD, low - weakens

    The index is expected to rise to 97.5 in May against 97.2 in April. Probably, the US dollar will receive an additional impetus to growth, if the data is confirmed or will be better than the forecast. The data below the forecast will have a downward pressure on the dollar, but only in the short term.

    Under conditions of uncertainty and escalation of international trade wars, the US dollar looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.

    On Friday, the USD growth continues, while the DXY dollar index futures traded at the beginning of the European session near the 97.73 mark.

    Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is falling after data came out on Thursday indicating that unemployment was rising in Australia to 5.2%. The revised data also indicated that unemployment in March was 5.1% versus a previous estimate of 5.0%.

    Rising unemployment increases the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. On Tuesday, the RBA Governor will deliver a speech in Brisbane. It is possible that he will signal the imminent reduction in rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates at 40% and 100% in August.

    In the current situation, the most likely scenario is a further decrease in AUD / USD with the closest target at 0.6830 (2016 lows).

    Below the key resistance levels of 0.7130 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable. A strong negative impulse prevails.

    Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800

    Resistance Levels: 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170



    Trading recommendations


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800

    Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6953, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7130, 0.7170

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  16. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    XAU/USD: Current Dynamics

    05/20/2019


    At the beginning of the European session, the XAU / USD pair attempts to break through the strong and key support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the correction to the wave of decline since July 2016 and ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

    In case of a successful breakdown of this level, the targets for further decline will be the support levels of 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50%), 1197.00 (November lows), 1185.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 1160.00 (2018 lows), which will mean the return of gold prices in a bearish trend.

    An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1287.00, above which the upward trend will resume. The XAU / USD growth targets are resistance levels of 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00 (highs of February and 2019).

    On Monday, market participants will closely monitor the performance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will begin at 23:00 (GMT). If he signals about the likelihood of a soon decrease in the interest rate, then the dollar may sharply decline, and the price of gold will rise.

    Some Fed leaders are concerned about weak inflation. According to them, it is possible that the central bank will have to take measures to speed up inflation, and that they will be ready to lower interest rates. Although Jerome Powell believes that low inflation in the United States is a “temporary phenomenon”.

    In the current situation, market participants prefer the dollar. The American economy as a whole is in a better condition than the economies of other countries amid the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China.

    Support Levels: 1277.00, 1268.00, 1248.00

    Resistance Levels: 1287.00, 1296.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00



    Trading recommendations


    Sell Stop 1272.00. Stop Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1268.00, 1248.00, 1234.00, 1220.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

    Buy Stop 1282.00. Stop Loss 1272.00. Take-Profit 1287.00, 1296.00, 1303.00, 1312.00, 1323.00, 1345.00, 1357.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  17. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    AUD/USD: Trading Scenarios

    05/21/2019


    Rising unemployment and low inflation increase the pressure on the RBA to lower interest rates. "During the meeting on June 4, interest rate cuts will be discussed", RBA manager Philip Lowe said on Tuesday. According to him, "new stimulating measures could help accelerate economic growth".

    In the minutes from the May meeting of the RBA published today, it is stated that "the lack of improvement in the labor market situation is an argument in favor of lowering interest rates". “Without easing monetary policy in the next six months, we should expect lowering forecasts for GDP growth and inflation”, the RBA leaders concluded.

    International trade conflicts, primarily between the United States and China, also pose a risk to the Australian economy. Investors estimate the likelihood of the June decline in RBA rates in more than 50% and 100% in August.

    Against this negative background, the decline in AUD / USD continues. Below the key resistance levels of 0.7120 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 0.7170 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions remain preferable.

    AUD / USD remains in a long-term bearish trend. The lows of the global wave of decline, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500, are located near the mark of 0.6830. AUD / USD may reach this level in the coming days.

    The objectives of the upward correction are located at the resistance levels of 0.7015 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7100, 0.7120.

    However, for now, only short positions should be considered.

    Support Levels: 0.6830, 0.6800

    Resistance Levels: 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120


    Trading Scenarios


    Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.6910. Take-Profit 0.6830, 0.6800

    Buy Stop 0.6910. Stop Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6932, 0.6980, 0.7015, 0.7100, 0.7120

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  18. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    USD/CAD: before the publication of the FOMC minutes

    05/22/2019

    Current Dynamics


    Speaking on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about the growth of US company debt. However, he did not say anything about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, but noted that “GDP growth rates are stable, US employment rates are quite high, while wages are rising against the backdrop of restrained inflation”.

    Inflation remains the focus of Fed officials.

    The central bank set a target inflation rate of 2% in 2012, and never once ensured its sustainability. Moreover, this year inflation has weakened, even against the background of strengthening economy and employment growth. The inflationary expectations of market participants and the population have also weakened, and this increases the likelihood that real inflation will not grow as the Fed leaders want.

    Most of them believe that this year the rates will not be changed, and those who thought they would be raised refused this opinion. Financial markets are expecting lower rates by the end of this year.

    On Wednesday, market participants will carefully study the minutes from the May Fed meeting in order to understand the intentions of the central bank management regarding monetary policy. The publication of the Fed's minutes is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT). Volatility at this time may sharply increase in the financial markets if the protocols contain unexpected statements by the Fed leaders. The harsh rhetoric of their statements regarding monetary policy will cause a strengthening of the USD. Conversely, a penchant for soft politics will cause a weakening of the American dollar.

    Lowering the interest rate of the Fed is a strong fundamental factor that will have a negative impact on the USD quotes.

    Nevertheless, the demand for the dollar is likely to continue in the context of the escalating US trade conflict with China and amid a slowdown in the European economy, as well as expectations of the results of parliamentary elections (May 23-26) in Europe. At the same time, the RB of Australia and the RB of New Zealand directly declare monetary policy easing.

    The dollar in the current situation looks preferable to other currencies due to the greater stability of the American economy.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


    Technical Analysis

    The increase in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected at 12:30 (GMT) in connection with the publication of data on retail sales in Canada. In March, the level of retail sales is expected to increase by 1.0% in the country (after rising + 0.8% in the previous month). This is a positive factor that will support CAD when confirming the forecast.

    After the USD / CAD updated its 3-month high near the 1.3520 mark at the end of last month, this currency pair is being adjusted, falling on Wednesday for the 4th consecutive day.

    At the beginning of the European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3390, below the important support level of 1.3400 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart).

    The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts turned to the short positions.

    Nevertheless, USD / CAD maintains a long-term positive trend, trading above key support levels of 1.3310 (EMA144), 1.3265 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

    The breakdown of resistance levels 1.3400, 1.3419 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of long positions.

    After the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3520 (2019 highs), the USD / CAD will head towards the resistance levels of 1.3660 (2018 highs), 1.3790 (2017 highs).

    Support Levels: 1.3376, 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265

    Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3419, 1.3440, 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790



    Trading Scenarios


    Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop Loss 1.3435. Take-Profit 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3265

    Buy Stop 1.3435. Stop Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3452, 1.3480, 1.3520, 1.3600, 1.3660, 1.3790

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  19. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    NZD/USD: Current Dynamics

    05/23/2019


    NZD / USD is developing a downward dynamic, actively declining over the past two months. In May, the NZD / USD pair received an additional negative impulse after the RBNZ meeting and after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the May Fed meeting.

    As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RBNZ reduced the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.5%. In a related statement, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr pointed out that "there is uncertainty about the prospects for the global economy and concerns about trade remain". According to him, “inflationary pressure will grow only slowly”. The forecast for the rate of RBNZ also lowered to 1.4%. Many economists believe that another reduction in the rate of the RBNZ may occur already this year.

    At the same time, the Fed leaders are still refraining from changes in monetary policy. This became clear from the minutes from the May Fed meeting, published on Wednesday. "Many participants in the meeting made it clear that their fears from the beginning of the year, to some extent, weakened", the protocols said.

    Thus, amid the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the RBNZ, as well as the trade conflict between the United States and China, a further reduction in NZD / USD with the immediate goal located at the support level of 0.6830 is likely. The farther target of the decline is at the support level of 0.6260 (Fibonacci level of 0% and the lows of the global wave of the pair's decline from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014).

    The signal for the development of an alternative scenario will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 0.6636 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), which may cause an increase to the resistance level of 0.6710 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

    Further growth is unlikely. Predominantly strong negative impulse. Below the key resistance level of 0.6755 (EMA200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable.

    Support Levels: 0.6430, 0.6400, 0.6300, 0.6230

    Resistance Levels: 0.6500, 0.6535, 0.6580, 0.6623, 0.6710, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6940



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 0.6620. Stop Loss 0.6670. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6575, 0.6510, 0.6430

    Buy Stop 0.6670. Stop Loss 0.6620. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6745, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6935, 0.6980, 0.7060

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
  20. TifiaFX

    TifiaFX

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    S&P500: Current Dynamics

    05/28/2019


    World stock indices went down again after weak growth during the Asian session on Tuesday.

    Investors are returning to the market after a long weekend and assess the events that have taken place, including the elections to the European Parliament and the trip of US President Donald Trump to Japan. Trump said that despite the recent conflict with Iran, he will not try to dislodge the government of this country.

    He also said that, against the background of "substantial progress" in trade negotiations with Japan, duties on Chinese imports "can easily be extremely increased". Thus, the US-China trade conflict threatens with a new aggravation, which can negatively affect both the Chinese and the American economies.

    Meanwhile, the yield of US government bonds falls again. Thus, at the beginning of the European session, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.278%, the lowest since February 2018. This indicates a growing uncertainty among investors and their avoidance of risks and purchases of high-yielding and risky assets.

    At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, futures for the S&P500 index traded near the mark of 2825.0. Probably, the American session will also begin with the fall of the indices.

    We are waiting for the publication of the consumer confidence index for May on Tuesday (14:00 GMT). The index is expected to grow (130.1 vs. 129.2 in April), which will support the dollar and US stock indices. If the data is weaker than the previous values, it will put additional pressure on US stock indices.

    *)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



    Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S&P500 persists. The index is trading above key support levels of 2810.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth from December 2018 and 2335.0 mark), 2798.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 2781.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 2845.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for the resumption of purchases with the long-term goal near the annual and absolute maximum of 2959.0.

    Break of the key support level of 2781.0 will revive the bearish trend. For now, this is an unlikely scenario.

    Support Levels: 2810.0, 2798.0, 2781.0, 2720.0

    Resistance Levels: 2845.0, 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0



    Trading Recommendations


    Sell Stop 2805.0. Stop Loss 2850.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2780.0, 2720.0

    Buy Stop 2850.0. Stop Loss 2805.0. Objectives 2863.0, 2890.0, 2915.0, 2937.0, 2959.0

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    *) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
     
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