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GBP/USD: until December 12, the pound will remain under pressure

11/27/2018

Current Dynamics


Despite the fact that last weekend the EU summit approved an agreement between the UK and the EU on Brexit, the pound remains under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair has been falling for the third consecutive day.

Teresa May managed to persuade EU representatives to conclude a deal on Brexit according to her plan, which provides for a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020 and can then be extended until December 2022.

Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, have subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. At the weekend, the media reported that 93 members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.

Statements by US President Donald Trump that an agreement on a Brexit deal could be a threat to a trade agreement between the US and the UK only aggravate the situation.

Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.

Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall to the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.

It is likely that trading on the pound until December 12 will be volatile and dependent on any news on the Brexit deal. In general, investors will avoid making large bets on pound trading before this date.

At the same time, the US dollar returned previously lost positions after the US president called it “highly probable” an increase in trade duties on goods from China. President Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, once again announced his intention to introduce next year a 25% duty on goods from China in the amount of $ 200 billion in the event of an unfavorable outcome of negotiations with the PRC. Trump also said that he will impose duties on all imports from China, which is not yet subject to taxation.

The DXY dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of 6 other major currencies, has been rising for the third day in a row. Futures on the dollar index DXY to the beginning of the American session is trading near the mark of 97.10, 16 points higher than the opening price of the trading day on Tuesday.

Most of the Fed leaders in September planned another rate increase before the end of the year, which, according to expectations, should occur at the meeting December 18-19. For 2019, several more Fed rate hikes are planned.

On Thursday (19:00 GMT), a protocol from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC Minutes) will be published. The harsh rhetoric of Fed officials regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.

A day earlier, namely on Wednesday (17:00 GMT), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Two weeks ago, Powell announced the “good shape” of the American economy.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance Levels

GBP / USD continues to trade in a descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017). In case of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2700 (October lows), the GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2600.

The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3170 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.

Short positions are preferred. Until December 12, when the UK parliament will vote on the terms of the Brexit deal, the pound will remain under pressure.

Support Levels: 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2838, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300



Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2840. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2840. Stop Loss 1.2760. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3170, 1.3210, 1.3300


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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Support and resistance levels

03/12/2018


Since the beginning of last month, AUD / USD has been developing an upward trend. Correctional growth allowed AUD / USD to rise to the key resistance level of 0.7380 (EMA200 on the daily chart), breaking through the strong resistance level of 0.7320 (EMA144 on the daily chart) on Monday with news of the suspension of the US-China trade conflict.

However, further growth of AUD / USD is unlikely, and a positive impulse can quickly disappear. If an agreement is not reached in 90 days, the United States will raise duties on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25%, and the trade conflict between the countries will enter a new round of escalation.

The most likely - the resumption of declining of the AUD / USD. In this case, the AUD / USD pair is at profitable levels in order to open short positions. Rebounding from the resistance level of 0.7380 and returning to the zone below the support level of 0.7320 will mean the resumption of the long-term bearish trend that began in August 2011. Breakdown of the support level of 0.7320 will resume the decline of AUD / USD with long-term goals at support levels of 0.6910 (lows of September 2015), 0.6830 (2016 lows). Short positions are preferred.

An alternative scenario assumes continued growth with the maximum goal at the resistance level of 0.7460 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2017 and the level of 0.9500. The minimum of this wave is near the level of 0.6830).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830

Resistance Levels: 0.7380, 0.7460, 0.7770, 0.7850



Trading scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7230, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7120, 0.7100, 0.7075, 0.7045, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830

Buy Stop 0.7410. Stop Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7500


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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: the pound strengthened on Tuesday

12/04/2018

Current Dynamics


The European Court’s decision on the possibility of the UK abandoning Brexit, as well as the publication of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK construction sector, had a positive effect on the pound. In November, the PMI index for the UK construction sector rose to 53.4 from 53.2 in October after a decline in activity over the previous 8 months. IHS Markit also reported that in November, the construction sector showed a generally strong growth, and the pace of job creation in it accelerated to a maximum since December 2015.

On Tuesday, the British Parliament will begin a 5-day discussion of the two documents that make up the Brexit agreement and formulate a way out of the UK from the EU and the future relationship between the UK and the bloc.

According to the Brexit deal, the UK is granted a transition period from March 2019 to December 2020, which can then be extended until December 2022.

Nevertheless, numerous representatives of the Conservative Party, as well as some representatives of the opposition, subjected the draft agreement to harsh criticism. Many members of the Conservative Party of Parliament oppose the Brexit plan agreed by the UK and the EU.

Voting on a deal with the EU in the House of Commons of the British Parliament is scheduled for December 12.

Many experts say that if the parliament refuses to approve the agreement, GBP / USD will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500, and if the lawmakers support the deal, it will quickly grow to 1.3500 - 1.4000.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance Levels

Positive news supported the pound on Tuesday, allowing the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2840 at the beginning of the European session.

Nevertheless, the further strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP / USD is unlikely. Until December 12, investors will avoid major deals on the pound.

There are risks that in case of the parliament’s refusal to approve the Brexit agreement, the GBP / USD pair will fall into the range of 1.2000 - 1.2500.

The signal for the development of this scenario will be the breakdown of the local support level of 1.2700 (August and October lows).

The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3140 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.

Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2785, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2885, 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300



Trading scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2660, 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2890. Stop Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2920, 1.3030, 1.3140, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3760

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CAD: Support and Resistance Levels

06/12/2018


Last Wednesday, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged, at 1.75%. In a statement explaining the decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a much more cautious tone is used than in previous statements. On Thursday (13:50 GMT) Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech. The soft rhetoric of Stephen Poloz regarding the bank’s monetary policy will further weaken the Canadian dollar.

USD / CAD maintains a positive trend, trading in the ascending channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 1.3600. Above the key support level of 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) a bullish trend remains.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.3450 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the growth of the pair in the global uptrend since September 2012 and 0.9700).

The growth targets will be the resistance levels of 1.3600, 1.3790 (2017 highs). Long positions are preferred.

Only a breakdown of support levels 1.2740 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.2700 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will cancel the bull trend.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025, 1.2900, 1.2800, 1.2740, 1.2700

Resistance Levels: 1.3450, 1.3600, 1.3790



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3285, 1.3225, 1.3195, 1.3025

Buy Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3600, 1.3790

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
XAU/USD: Market expectations

12/07/2018


Against the background of monetary tightening by the Fed since April, gold prices have been in a steady downward trend. In mid-August, the XAU / USD pair reached an annual minimum near the mark of 1160.00, however, then an upward correction began, raising the price of gold to the mark of 1244.00 dollars per troy ounce. Nevertheless, the overall gold trend remains bearish, and the upward correction may end near the reached resistance levels of 1242.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from July 2016), if the Fed will give clear signals to further tighten its monetary policy.

The breakdown of the support level of 1233.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be the beginning of the return of XAU / USD to the bearish trend.

The soft rhetoric of statements by Fed officials could provoke a breakdown of the achieved resistance levels and a further growth of the XAU / USD towards resistance levels of 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

We remind you that the publication of key data for the Fed from the US labor market is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Predicting the market response to the publication of indicators is often difficult. In any case, when these indicators are published, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only for USD, but also for the entire financial market. Probably the most cautious investors would prefer to stay out of the market during this time period.

Support Levels: 1233.00, 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

Resistance Levels: 1242.00, 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 1232.00. Stop Loss 1245.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1198.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

Buy Stop 1245.00. Stop Loss 1232.00. Take-Profit 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
USD/CHF: on the eve of the meeting of the National Bank of Switzerland

Current dynamics

12/12/2018


On Thursday, a regular meeting of the Swiss National Bank will be held on monetary policy issues. The decision on rates will be published at 08:30 (GMT).

Earlier in late September, the National Bank of Switzerland kept its negative interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate was at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate was between -1.25% and -0.25%. “The bank still considers a negative interest rate necessary and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the situation requires it”, the NBS said. According to the management of the NBS, the cost of the Swiss franc is still high. It is likely that rates will remain unchanged for much of the next year, while weaker economic data has come from Switzerland. Thus, GDP in the 3rd quarter decreased by -0.2% instead of the expected growth of + 0.4% and against growth of + 0.7% in the 2nd quarter. Other macro data also indicate a slowdown in the economy.

At 09:00 (GMT) the press conference of the NBS will start. The harsh rhetoric of the speech by the head of the NBS Thomas Jordan, will help strengthen the franc. The soft tone of the speech and the tendency to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the NBS will negatively affect the franc.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance Levels

The USD / CHF pair is trading at the beginning of the American session on Wednesday, near the strong short-term resistance level of 0.9960 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Breakdown of this level will strengthen the upward trend prevailing above key support levels of 0.9875 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from 1.0300), 0.9860 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

As long as USD / CHF is above these key support levels, a long-term uptrend persists and long positions are preferred.

An alternative decline scenario may develop after the breakdown of the support level of 0.9860 with the immediate goal at the support level of 0.9745 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level of 50%).

Support levels: 0.9935, 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745

Resistance Levels: 0.9960, 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110



Trading Scenarios


Buy Stop 0.9970. Stop Loss 0.9930. Take-Profit 1.0010, 1.0060, 1.0110

Sell Stop 0.9930. Stop Loss 0.9970. Take-Profit 0.9915, 0.9875, 0.9860, 0.9745, 0.9610, 0.9575

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: Market Expectations

12/13/2018


On Thursday, the focus of attention of participants in the financial market will be the ECB meeting. The bank is expected to leave rates at current levels at least until the end of the summer of 2019. It is also likely that the ECB will confirm the completion of the asset purchase program at the end of December.

The ECB rate decision will be published at 12:45 (GMT), and the ECB press conference will begin at 13:30. If Mario Draghi makes unexpected announcements, then the volatility in euro trading and the financial market will increase significantly. The harsh rhetoric of Mario Draghi on monetary policy prospects will strengthen the euro. Conversely, the soft tone of the ECB statement and the speech of Mario Draghi will have a downward pressure on the euro.

Meanwhile, the euro will remain under pressure against the dollar, which is supported by demand from investors amid expectations of further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

While EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (EMA200 on the daily chart), short positions are preferable. The likelihood of further decline in EUR / USD remains. After the breakdown of the support level of 1.1362 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) EUR / USD will go to support levels of 1.1310 (December lows), 1.1290 (Fibonacci level of the 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1210 (November and year lows).

After EUR / USD rises to the zone above the resistance level of 1.1410 (EMA50 on the daily chart), further corrective growth is possible to the resistance level of 1.1610.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 1.1362, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1350. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1350. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: Eurodollar remains under pressure

Current dynamics

14/12/2018


The Eurodollar remains under pressure after the ECB meeting on Thursday.

His head, Mario Draghi, pointed to the risks of the Eurozone economy, which are shifting towards the deterioration of the situation. The ECB confirmed that it will complete the QE program in December. Interest rates will remain unchanged until the summer of 2019.

The euro remains under pressure from the worsening domestic political situation in France, the reluctance of the Italian government to more strongly curtail the planned budget deficit, as required by the European Commission, as well as Brexit and uncertainty due to the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament in May.

On Friday, the decline of the EUR / USD pair continued after the publication of disappointing macro data from the Eurozone. The EUR / USD pair fell from the opening of the trading day by 0.6% and at the beginning of the American session is trading near the 1.1286 mark, trying to break through the important support level of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .

Below the key resistance level of 1.1610 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions with targets at support levels of 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart) are still preferred.

The signal for the resumption of long positions will be the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1400 (EMA50 and the upper line of the downward channel on the daily chart) with the target at the resistance level of 1.1610.


Support Levels: 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1310, 1.1360, 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790



Trading recommendations


Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1410. Take-Profit 1.1210, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1410. Stop Loss 1.1280. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1790

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GBP/USD: Support and Resistance Levels

17/12/2018


After another sharp fall in mid-April since early May, GBP / USD continues to trade in a downward channel on a weekly chart, the lower limit of which passes near the support level of 1.1700. In the event of a breakdown of the nearest support level of 1.2600 (lows of June 2017), GBP / USD will head towards the support level of 1.2485 (minimums of the year). The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3095 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.

The signal for growth will be the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2642 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart). The immediate goal of growth is resistance levels of 1.2780 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2820 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

With favorable developments, corrective growth of GBP / USD may continue to resistance levels 1.3095 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.3215.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 1.2600, 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2670, 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215



Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2680. Stop Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3095, 1.3215

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
XAU/USD: Market expectations

18/12/2018


Against the background of monetary tightening by the Fed since April, gold prices have been in a steady downward trend. In mid-August, the XAU / USD pair reached an annual minimum near the mark of 1160.00, however, then an upward correction began, raising gold prices to the current mark of 1249.00 dollars per troy ounce. Nevertheless, the overall gold trend remains bearish, and the upward correction may end near the reached resistance levels of 1242.00 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the decline wave from July 2016), if the Fed will give clear signals to further tighten its monetary policy in 2019.

About 70% of market participants, according to the CME Group, believe that the rate will be increased in 2019 at least 2 more times. At the same time, the rate increase on December 19, at the last Fed meeting this year, by 0.25% to 2.5% is not in doubt.

The press conference of the Fed will begin on Wednesday 19:30 (GMT). Unambiguous signals from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a propensity to continue tightening monetary policy, will cause a rise in the dollar and a drop in gold prices. In the face of an increase in interest rates, gold is difficult to compete with other income-generating assets, such as government bonds, for example. At the same time, the cost of acquiring and storing gold is growing.

The breakdown of the support level of 1235.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will be the beginning of the return of XAU / USD to the bearish trend.

The soft rhetoric of statements by Fed officials could contribute to weakening the dollar and further rising gold and XAU / USD quotes towards resistance levels of 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 1242.00, 1235.00, 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

Resistance Levels: 1248.00, 1260.00, 1277.00



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 1234.00. Stop Loss 1250.00. Take-Profit 1220.00, 1212.00, 1204.00, 1197.00, 1185.00, 1160.00

Buy Stop 1250.00. Stop Loss 1234.00. Take-Profit 1260.00, 1277.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: on the eve of the publication of the Fed rate decision

12/19/2018


It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.5%. The probability of this is 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The decision of the Fed on the rate will be published at 19:00 (GMT). In November, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the stakes are "slightly below" the neutral level, at which they neither restrain nor accelerate economic growth. It is likely that the accompanying Fed statement will state that in the future rates will increase depending on economic data.

The Fed’s press conference will begin at 19:30 (GMT), and investors will closely monitor Powell’s performance to catch signals from him regarding the Fed’s future plans.

If he talks about the pause in the boost cycle in 2019, the dollar will fall under sales.

US President Donald Trump does not cease to criticize the Fed for its monetary policy.

If Powell confirms the inclination of the Fed to tighten its policy next year, then the dollar will receive a positive impetus for further growth. The discrepancy in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System and the European Central Bank in 2019 will increase. Even if EUR / USD rises in the near future against the backdrop of a restrained Fed statement, in the medium term and probably in the long term, the Eurodollar will decline.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Currently, EUR / USD is trading near a strong resistance level of 1.1400 (EMA50 on the daily chart). Below the key resistance level of 1.1595 (EMA200 on the daily chart), negative dynamics prevail. The signal for the resumption of the decline will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1355 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), and the targets for the decline will be the support levels of 1.1290 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (minimums December), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1000 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart).

In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.1470, corrective growth will be possible to the resistance level of 1.1595.

Support Levels: 1.1376, 1.1355, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1595, 1.1700, 1.1790



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 1.1370. Stop-Loss 1.1420. Take-Profit 1.1355, 1.1310, 1.1290, 1.1210, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1420. Stop-Loss 1.1370. Take-Profit 1.1470, 1.1600, 1.1700, 1.1790

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
S&P500: The threat of a nearly 10-year bull trend breaking down is high

12/27/2018

Current situation


On Wednesday, US stock indexes showed a sharp increase after falling for 4 consecutive sessions before.

DJIA rose 1086 points, or 5%, to 22878 points, which in percentage terms was the most significant one-day increase since March 2009. S&P500 added 5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 5.8%.

On Tuesday, US financial markets were closed due to the celebration of Catholic Christmas, while most European markets on Wednesday were still closed due to Boxing Day. On Monday, the DJIA and S&P500 fell by 2.5%, and on Wednesday the DJIA declined at the opening of the trading day to around 21620, losing more than 1,800 points in four sessions. At the opening of the trading day on Wednesday, futures on the S&P500 stood at 2333.0, however, it increased during the day, closing the trading day on Wednesday at 2467.0.

Financial markets continue to be feverish at the end of the year. Investors were nervous about the rising interest rates of the Federal Reserve and the US-China trade conflict. Also on the dynamics of stock markets and the dollar in recent days reflected the continuing criticism of the Fed and its head Powell by US President Donald Trump, as well as the uncertainty associated with the closure of the US government.

On Wednesday, Kevin Hasset, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers at the White House, said there was no likelihood of the dismissal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism of the central bank by President Donald Trump. The recovery of stock market quotes and the dollar on Wednesday also was helped by the positive macro data, according to which, retail sales in the US excluding cars for the period from November 1 to December 24 increased by 5.1% compared with the same period of the previous year, which was the most significant increase in six years.

On Thursday, investors' pessimism returns to the markets. US stock indexes are falling. All 11 sectors of the S&P500 are moving towards ending the year with losses, for the first time since 2008. The threat of breaking a nearly 10-year bull trend is higher than ever before.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance Levels

In October, the S&P500 rose to an absolute maximum near the 2938.0 mark. However, a sharp decline in the index began later. Having broken through the strong support levels of 2720.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2677.0 (Fibonacci 23.6% of the correction to the growth since February 2016), the S&P500 reached a local minimum near 2333.0 on Wednesday. The last time near this mark S&P500 was in May 2017.

Negative dynamics and pessimism of investors still prevail. On Thursday, the S&P500 declined again after rising the previous day, trading at a key support level of 2433.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). Fixing below the support level of 2380.0 (Fibonacci level 50%) and a further decline will speak about breaking the bullish trend of the S&P500.

Only after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 2720.0, it will be possible to talk about the resumption of the bull trend. In the current situation, short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 2433.0, 2380.0, 2333.0, 2250.0, 2130.0

Resistance Levels: 2515.0, 2572.0, 2677.0, 2720.0, 2812.0, 2877.0, 2900.0, 2938.0



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 2410.0. Stop Loss 2490.0. Goals 2380.0, 2333.0, 2250.0, 2130.0

Buy Stop 2490.0. Stop-Loss 2410.0. Goals 2515.0, 2572.0, 2677.0, 2720.0, 2812.0, 2877.0, 2900.0, 2938.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
WTI: Support and Resistance Levels

09/01/2019


After in October, the price of WTI oil reached a multi-month and annual maximum near the mark of 76.80 dollars per barrel, then its sharp decline began.

In November, the WTI oil price broke the long-term bullish trend, breaking through the key support levels of 63.50 (Fibonacci 38.2% of the correction to the growth wave that began in February 2016 with the support level near the 27.30 mark), 56.50 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) . At the end of last month, the price reached a local and annual minimum near the mark of 42.00 dollars per barrel.

From this level there was a rebound, and the price tried to develop an upward trend.

At the moment, corrective growth has stopped near the local resistance level of 50.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

A signal for further growth will be the breakdown of this resistance level of 50.50. Medium-term growth targets are resistance levels of 59.40 (Fibonacci level 50%), 60.50 (EMA200on the daily chart).

The breakdown of the short-term support level of 47.80 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will return the prices of WTI crude oil to a bearish trend that began in October, with a target at the support level of 42.00 (Fibonacci 100% and the minimums of 2018 and 2017).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 49.00, 47.80, 46.00, 44.50, 42.00

Resistance Levels: 50.50, 52.70, 55.30, 56.50, 59.40, 60.50, 63.50



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 48.80. Stop Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 47.80, 46.00, 44.50, 42.00

Buy Stop 51.10. Stop Loss 48.80. Take-Profit 52.70, 55.30, 56.50, 59.40, 60.50, 63.50

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
S&P500: Optimism returns to stock market

10/01/2019

Current situation


Published on Wednesday, the minutes of the December Fed meeting, hinting that the next increase in interest rates in the United States can take place not soon. The protocols showed that Fed leaders are concerned about the slowdown in global economic growth and the tension in trade relations, which destabilized markets before the December meeting. Therefore, "the extent and timing of further policy tightening has become less certain than before".

On Friday, Powell hinted that the Fed could be more patient with raising rates. Jerome Powell said that the central bank is ready to "change" its policy "if necessary" and that it will listen carefully to the market.

Powell’s statement supported investors, and US stock markets have grown in recent days.

There is still a long way to full recovery, but investors' optimism is gradually returning to the stock markets.

On Thursday, investors are expecting speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a meeting of the Economic Club in Washington, which will begin at 17:00 (GMT). If Powell repeats his Friday statement, then stock indexes will rise. If Powell changes his mind and his Friday statement, then investors may consider this a negative signal.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

In the last days of last year, the S&P500 attempted to recover from a multi-week drop. Nevertheless, the correctional growth of the S&P500 stopped near the resistance level of 2584.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The breakdown of the resistance level of 2584.0 will trigger further growth of the S&P500 with targets at resistance levels of 2603.0, 2615.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

However, only after returning to the zone above the resistance level of 2700.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart) it will be possible to speak about the resumption of the bull trend.

The signal for the resumption of sales will be the breakdown of the support level of 2533.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The targets for the decline will be the support levels of 2435.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 2386.0 (Fibonacci 50% of the correction to the growth since February 2016). Fixing below these levels and a further decline will talk about breaking of the bullish trend S&P500.

Support Levels: 2533.0, 2507.0, 2435.0, 2386.0, 2335.0, 2250.0, 2130.0

Resistance Levels: 2584.0, 2603.0, 2615.0, 2676.0, 2700.0



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 2550.0. Stop Loss 2595.0. Goals 2533.0, 2507.0, 2435.0, 2386.0, 2335.0, 2250.0, 2130.0

Buy Stop 2595.0. Stop Loss 2550.0. Objectives 2603.0, 2615.0, 2676.0, 2700.0


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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
AUD/USD: Market Expectations

11/01/2019


US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed on Thursday the central bank’s intention to be patient this year in deciding to raise interest rates, taking into account the turbulence observed in recent weeks in financial markets concerned about the problems of global economic growth. “The US economy is strong”, said Powell. “The main source of concern is global growth”. He noted that the economies of the world today are much more interconnected than before, and the question is how much the slowdown in global economic growth will affect the US economy. Powell's optimism and his restraint in raising interest rates the Fed supported stock indexes and commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar.

From the news today we should pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of data on consumer inflation in the United States. Inflation data is one of the main, along with data on GDP and the state of the labor market, on which the Fed's monetary policy depends. It is expected that in December, inflation in the United States decreased by -0.1%, but increased by 2.2% in annual terms. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast, then the USD will be strengthened. A decrease in performance will have a negative impact on the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


In general, the long-term bearish trend AUD / USD is still in force. In the long run, short positions are preferable. The reached local maximums probably provide a good opportunity to enter a short position at AUD / USD.

The breakdown of the support level of 0.7150 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) will cause the resumption of the AUD / USD decline with long-term targets at the support levels of 0.6910 (September 2015 minimum), 0.6830 (2016 lows).

Below the resistance level of 0.7255 (EMA200 on the daily chart) short positions are preferable.

Support Levels: 0.7200, 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7025

Resistance Levels: 0.7255, 0.7320, 0.7385, 0.7460



Trading Scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 0.7260. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150, 0.7100, 0.7025, 0.6910, 0.6830

Buy Stop 0.7260. Stop Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7320, 0.7385, 0.7460

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: Market Expectations

14/01/2018


On Tuesday, a vote will be taken in the British Parliament on a Brexit deal with the EU. As you know, British Prime Minister Theresa May made a Brexit deal with the EU at the end of November, which caused a flurry of criticism from British parliamentarians.

Probably, the parliament will vote against the proposed agreement and the deadline for the British withdrawal from the EU will be postponed from March 29 to a later date. The expected failure of the Brexit vote is, in general, negative news for the pound. However, the effect of this factor on the dynamics of the pound will most likely be short-term, since it has already been taken into account in the quotes.

Below the key resistance level of 1.3035 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and due to important fundamental factors, GBP / USD remains under pressure.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2735 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will go into the descending channel on the daily chart and to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 minimums), 1.2485, 1.2365.

The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3215 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the 1.7200 level), 1.3035 (EMA200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support Levels: 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2955, 1.3035, 1.3125, 1.3215, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740



Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365

Buy Stop 1.2880. Stop Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.3035, 1.3125, 1.3215

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: Trading Scenarios

01/15/2019


A report published on Tuesday showed that Germany’s GDP growth over the past year was 1.5% after a 2.2% increase in 2017. The data suggest a substantial recession risk in the German economy. The minimum annual GDP growth since 2013 has been recorded.

The slowdown in the German economy may cause weakening results for other European countries that supply components for the German automotive industry and other products.

Hard Brexit, the escalation of trade conflicts and factors of political instability in the Eurozone are the main threats to the European economy.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


EUR / USD pair declined after published data, closely approaching to the support level of 1.1420 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50on the daily chart).

Below the key resistance levels of 1.1525 (EMA144), 1.1575 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downward trend prevails.

A breakdown of support levels of 1.1420, 1.1400 will return the EUR / USD pair to a long-term bearish trend. Long-term goals of decline are support levels of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to a fall from 1.3900 level that began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1210 (November and year lows), 1.1120 (bottom line of the downward channel on the daily chart, lows of June 2017).

Support Levels: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120

Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1700, 1.1780



Trading recommendations


Sell Stop 1.1390. Stop-Loss 1.1490. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215, 1.1120

Buy Stop 1.1490. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1700, 1.1780


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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

01/16/2019


In December, the annual rate of consumer price inflation in the UK slowed down. According to official data released on Wednesday, the UK consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.1% in December compared with the same period last year, after rising 2.3% in November. The retail price index (RPI) +0.4% m/m, +2.7% y/y (the forecast was +0.5% m/m, +2.9% y/y), the producer selling prices index (Output PPI) -0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y (the forecast was 0% m/m and +2.9% y/y). The data can be called ambiguous. On the one hand, they point to an increase in inflation, while inflation remains above the target level of the Bank of England at 2%. But, on the other hand, the data indicate a slowdown in inflation.

The publication of the data remained almost unnoticed, as all market attention focused on Brexit. The proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May, the plan of the deal was rejected on Tuesday by parliament. The vote in the British Parliament on the confidence of Theresa May will begin at 19:00 (GMT). With the opening of the trading day, GBP/USD is moderately decreasing, trading in the middle of the European session near the level of 1.2850.

Probably, Theresa May will be able to defend their post. However, the uncertainty of the future relationship between the EU and the UK is a negative factor for the pound. "Hard" Brexit without a trade agreement with the EU countries will deal a severe blow to the UK economy.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The pound remains under pressure due to the domestic political crisis in the UK and Brexit.

The main trend of GBP/USD is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP/USD in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2750, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740



Trading scenarios


Sell Stop 1.2820. Stop Loss 1.2920. Take-Profit 1.2750, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365

Buy Stop 1.2920. Stop Loss 1.2820. Take-Profit 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
EUR/USD: good reasons are needed for the Eurodollar growth

01/17/2019

Current situation


The updated data, published on Thursday, confirmed the forecasts of economists that in December annual inflation in the Eurozone amounted to 1.6% against 1.9% in November. In conjunction with the recently published weak data, inflation indicators indicate a decrease in the likelihood that the ECB will be able to increase the rate in 2019.

Against the background of the situation with Brexit, the ECB is likely to take a waiting position at the next meeting to be held next week. January 24 will be published by the ECB decision on rates. Probably, the ECB will also express concern about the worsening growth prospects of the economy.

On Tuesday, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the European economy still needs substantial stimulation. Investors considered this a signal for a possible extension of the QE program.

At the same time, the Beige Book, published Wednesday, drew a positive picture for the US economy. “Overall, the outlook remains positive”, the report says.

Thus, according to economists, the prospects for a substantial strengthening of the euro and the growth of EUR / USD look inconclusive. Probably further weakening of the Eurodollar. For the growth of the pair EUR / USD we need good reasons and a significant weakening of the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Despite the corrective growth of EUR / USD, which began in mid-November, negative dynamics prevail below the resistance level of 1.1570 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of resumption of reduction, the nearest targets will be the support levels of 1.1350, 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from 1.3900 level, which began in May 2014), 1.1270 (December lows), 1.1215 (November and year lows).

An alternative scenario involves the breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1440 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the resumption of corrective growth. However, the growth of EUR / USD will be limited by the resistance level of 1.1570.

Support Levels: 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215

Resistance Levels: 1.1400, 1.1417, 1.1440, 1.1520, 1.1570, 1.1680, 1.1780



Trading recommendations


Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.1450. Take-Profit 1.1350, 1.1285, 1.1215

Buy Stop 1.1450. Stop-Loss 1.1390. Take-Profit 1.1520, 1.1570, 1.1700, 1.1780

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
GBP/USD: Market Expectations

01/18/2019



The pound is falling on Friday after strong growth on the eve amid rumors about a possible postponement of the UK exit from the EU, as well as the possibility of a second Brexit referendum.

The past week’s vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit deal with the EU failed for British Prime Minister Theresa May, and now she will have to submit a new plan on Monday. Most likely, it will differ little from the previous plan.

Brexit uncertainty is getting stronger, putting pressure on the pound. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented on Friday, retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.9% in December compared with the previous month. This report was another signal that the growth momentum of the UK economy faded in the last three months of 2018. According to economists, more stringent credit conditions, as well as the uncertainty of future UK relations with the EU have a negative impact on consumer confidence.

Meanwhile, the dollar remains stable and attractive, despite the domestic political crisis in the United States. Investors are worried about slowing global economic growth, trade conflicts, market volatility, partial suspension of government agencies and weak production data, and Fed officials said they would continue to be patient with rising interest rates.

On Friday, between 14:15 and 15:00 (GMT), important macro data from the United States will be published, including industrial production data for December and consumer confidence for January. Overall, the data is expected to be strong, despite a relative decline of values. The data should support the dollar, which is still in demand against the background of domestic political problems in Europe, as well as a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy due to the trade conflict between the US and China.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


On Friday, GBP / USD is falling, bargaining at the beginning of the European session near the level of 1.2940, below the resistance levels of 1.3030 (EMA200), 1.2950 (EMA144 on the daily chart). A break of the short-term support level of 1.2770 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will confirm the scenario for the resumption of the bearish trend and direct GBP / USD to the support levels of 1.2600 (June 2017 lows), 1.2485, 1.2365.

The main trend is still bearish. Below the key resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that started in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3030 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) negative dynamics prevail.

Support Levels: 1.2770, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3470, 1.3740



Trading scenarios


Sell in the market. Stop Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2770, 1.2700, 1.2670, 1.2600, 1.2485, 1.2365

Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop Loss 1.2920. Take-Profit 1.3030, 1.3125, 1.3210

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
 
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