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Japan’s economy will probably shrink for the first time for two years

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11.05.2018

It’s expected that in the first quarter the Japanese economy will slump for the first time for two years due to poor private consumption as well as a milder export demand, the Reuters survey disclosed on Friday.

Negative reading, albeit quite insignificant, would mean the end of Japan's longest period of economic expansion – up to eight straight quarters of surge - since the bubble of the 1980s.

However, market experts told that the expected weakness in January-March could only be a temporary mild phenomenon, arguing that higher prices for fresh vegetables along with bad winter weather probably affected consumer spending in the first quarter.

The global economy is still firm, suggesting that Japan will restore momentum in the second quarter, as financial analysts pointed out.

According to a poll of 18 market experts, the gross domestic product headed south 0.2% in the first quarter after a 1.6% surge in the last quarter of the previous year.

It’s going to be the first reduction in the world's number three economy since the end of 2015.

The reduction on an annualized basis is going to provoke a zero reading for the previous quarter.

Market experts added that the Japanese economy has been reviving steadily, but it feels like it has temporarily stopped.

Economic indicators, including factory production and business sentiments of firms, have demonstrated a softening of economic dynamics. Apparently, data on GDP clearly reflects these phenomena.

Market experts are assured that this quarter there was no surge in private consumption, after it tacked on by 0.5% in the last quarter of the previous year. By the way, private consumption accounts for approximately 60% of GDP.

Additionally, the survey disclosed that external demand also didn’t contribute to this Asian country’s GDP.

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Key European indexes go down

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14.05.2018

On Monday, European stock indices weakened a bit, market participants focused on the Italian political situation, US-China trade relations as well as diving crude prices.

The European index Stoxx 600 headed south by about 0.17%, while sectors and large exchanges moved in opposite directions.

Shares of the crude and gas sector found themselves in red because crude prices drifted away from their multi-year maximums. Brent slumped by 0.3%, hitting $76.91, while WTI reported a 0.2% slump, being worth $70.53. The prices were previously backed by news that the United States is going to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran. However, on Monday market participants didn’t hurry with purchases before the release of the monthly report on the crude market of OPEC.

At the same time, health sector equities inched up 0.6%, reviving from a recession the previous week after President Donald Trump uncovered plans to lower the prices of prescription drugs.

Iwg managed to soar to the top of the European index, adding 20%, after three different companies announced their interest in buying the company. Portuguese energy company EDP also added by nearly 12% after the Chinese group Three Gorges filed an application for takeover. On the other hand, Lundbergs collapsed by about 50%, Victrex dived by 4.7%. The latter posted higher subsidized income, but warned of difficulties with fixed income in 2019.

In Europe, the focus was on the situation in Italy. In this European country two opposition parties the "Five Star Movement" and the extreme right-wing "League of the North" came to an agreement on the formation of the government. They called on Italian President Sergio Matarella to present the outcomes of their talks. If the president approves their deal, then the repeat of the March elections will no longer be required.

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Forex today: markets are calm

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14.05.2018

The week has started without outstanding movements.
USD is continuing to move down since the middle of the last week. No important data for the US dollar will be released today, so traders may expect the further fall of the greenback to 92. Tomorrow’s movement of USD will depend on a retail sales data (15:30 MT time). If the data is greater than the forecast, the US dollar will be able to recover. The weaker actual data will pull the US dollar down.
The euro is still moving up. EUR/USD is climbing to the resistance at 1.20. If the pair is able to break the resistance, the 200-day MA (1.2020) will be the next level to break. No noteworthy data for the single currency will be released on Monday and Tuesday. However, a progress in a forming of the Italian government may support the euro. Up to date, it seems like 5 Star Movement and the League party reached an agreement. In regard to the euro exit, currently, the parties do not favor it. If the Italian government is formed soon and the euro exit is placed on hold, the euro will get an additional support. If the US dollar’s data is stronger, the euro will come back to the support at 1.19.

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On Monday, stocks in most Asian markets rose showing the biggest advance since February. US President Donald Trump tweeted that the US and China will work on a trade deal and will find a way to get one of China's biggest telecoms companies, ZTE, back into the business. ZTE was hit after the US Commerce department banned US companies from selling it components for 7 years.
An easing of the trade wars’ tensions boosts such currencies as the Australian dollar. The aussie is continuing its upward movement. The AUD/USD pair is trading above the weekly pivot point (0.75) and moving to the resistance at 0.76. No significant economic data for the aussie is anticipated neither today nor on Tuesday. However, on Tuesday, the RBA will release a detailed record of its most recent meeting (4:30 MT time). The central bank is dovish about the aussie, so comments may slightly affect the Australian currency in a negative way, so AUD/USD will come back to the support at 0.75.

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After the last week’s rally oil is suffering a slight decline. Brent is near $76.70 (the last week’s high - $78); WTI is trading near $70.40 (last week’s high - $71.89). The further fall may be limited by a high possibility of the continuation of the Iran deal. UK PM Theresa May confirmed a commitment of the UK and its European partners to the ensuring of the nuclear deal with Iran. A meeting of UK, German, French and Iranian foreign ministers will be held on Tuesday in Brussels.

However, tensions around the Iranian deal still exist. On Sunday, the US threatened to impose sanctions on European companies that do business with Iran.

So oil will stay volatile depending on the results of the political actions.
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The Canadian dollar is under pressure as oil is suffering. Moreover, the forecast of Morgan Stanley is not reassuring. According to the bank, it is time to buy the USD/CAD pair. The aim is 1.3100; Stop-loss - 1.2510.

However, a progress in the NAFTA deal is in the offing. US lawmakers are optimistic about the deal, moreover, they want a deal by Thursday. So the loonie has chances to recover. Up to date, USD/CAD is standing still. No important data for the loonie will be released neither today nor on Tuesday. So the further movement will depend on the political announcements and the USD’s data.

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Bitcoin is trading within the $8,000-$8,700 range limited by 50-day and 100-day MA. On Monday, a blockchain conference Consensus 2018 is starting to work. According to the forecast of Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research, the cryptocurrency may rise to $15,000 after the conference. So let’s see whether the conference will have such an effect.

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That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
 
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Forex today: USD recovered, other currencies fell

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15.05.2018

The US dollar managed to gain a foothold. After a 3-day fall, the US dollar index turned around and closed Monday’s trading positively. On Tuesday, the Index is trading around 92.60. Traders are waiting for retail sales’ data that will be released at 15:30 MT time. If actual figures are greater than forecast ones, the greenback will get an additional boost and will move to the previous highs. However, weaker data may put pressure on the US currency.

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As the US dollar managed to strengthen, other currencies lost momentum.

The pound is continuing to trade above 200-day moving average that does not let GBP/USD to break the pivot point at 1.3540. Average Earnings Index will be out today at 11:30 MT time. If the data is greater than forecast, the GBP/USD pair will not break the support at 1.3540. Otherwise, it will go to the next support at 1.3450.

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The US dollar is continuing to appreciate against the Japanese yen. USD/JPY is near 110. As no significant data for the yen is anticipated and the US dollar is rising, there is an odd that the pair will break the resistance at 110 and will move further. Moreover, according to a Reuters poll, the BOJ is anticipated to end the quantitative easing policy slower as it still fails to reach its inflation target.

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As anticipated, RBA’s meeting minutes did not support the Australian dollar. Deputy Governor of the RBA said that a board does not see "strong case" for a near-term rate rise. Nothing new, but AUD/USD is continuing to move down. The pair is near the pivot point at 0.75. If it falls lower this level, the next support will lie at 0.7450. One issue that can support the currency is trade wars’ easing. China’s top economic official will arrive in Washington on Tuesday for a 5-day trade discussion. However, a forecast is not encouraging. According to the US ambassador to China, the US and China “still very far apart” on trade. If the negotiation does not have a progress, the Aussie will fall further. However, any clues on the trade war’s easing will pull the aussie up.

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Oil is slightly falling again. On Monday, Brent gained momentum and set a new record ($78.53), WTI was not so successful but rose too. Tuesday did not start so positive, both oil benchmarks lost some points. Brent is near $78.20, WTI is trading slightly lower $71. However, Goldman Sachs stays bullish on oil. According to the bank, the rise is based on inventories that are now well below the 5-year average and are expected to continue the fall through the year-end. The bank increased upside risks to $82.5 per barrel summer oil price target.

That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
 
Asia-Pacific stocks conclude mostly down

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16.05.2018

On Wednesday, equities of the Asia-Pacific region concluded mainly down after the yield of American government bonds rallied amid expectations of another lift in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, North Korea suspended talks with South Korea, scheduled for the next day, referring to the joint military exercise of South Korea and the United States. It increased worries as for a planned summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-no and US President Donald Trump in June.

Japanese stocks headed south amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty on the Korean peninsula. Poor GDP data also affected the decline in quotations.

Additionally, Japan's gross domestic product went down by-0.2% in the first quarter of 2018 having ascended 0.1% (updated from 0.4%) in the fourth quarter of 2017, as the Cabinet told in its preliminary reading. Year-on-year and seasonally adjusted, Japan's GDP went down by 0.6% having leapt 0.6% earlier (updated from 1.6%). Market experts had expected a dive of 0.2%.

The main exporters traded mostly down, notwithstanding a weakening Japanese yen. Equities of Panasonic inched down by more than 1.8%, both Canon and Sony lost 0.8%.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group declined 2.4% right after net profit for the year ended March turned out to be lower than analysts' estimates.

Australian equities concluded with a modest gain, and the surge was led by financial as well as mining companies.

Shares of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto eventually headed north by more than 1%. Besides this, the market value of Westpac Banking Corp inched up by up to 0.7%, while the other three financial institutions concluded with surge rather in a narrow range.

Origin Energy, Santos as well as Woodside Petroleum jumped by 1-2% after crude prices soared during the night.

Moreover, equities in New Zealand dived after A2 Milk, a dairy company, rolled out weaker-than-anticipated earnings forecasts.

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Forex today: political tensions are in the arena

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16.05.2018

It seems like the US-North Korea deal is near the end. North Korea announced it will never have an economic trade with the United States in exchange for giving up its nuclear program; will reconsider summit with the US whether it insists on North giving up the nuclear program; Mr. Trump will remain as a failed leader if he follows in the footsteps of previous US presidents. Such comments may lead to a conflict between countries.
Despite negative news from North Korea, the greenback is continuing to set new highs. The US dollar index is near 93.40.
Based on the North Korean comments, the yen managed to gain some points against the US dollar. USD/JPY returned to the 200-day MA at 110.20. The trading is not extensive. The rising USD may pull the pair back above 110.20. However, if tensions increase, the pair will break the support at 110.

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The euro is continuing to suffer. Although economic data were similar to the forecast (Final CPI y/y 1.2% vs 1.2%; Final Core CPI y/y 0.7% versus 0.7%), it didn’t support the falling euro. Traders are waiting for comments of ECB’s president Mr. Draghi (15:30 MT time). As the European economic data is not positive, there is a possibility that the President will sound not so hawkish. If you look at the daily chart, you will see that indicators are signaling the further fall. 50-day MA crossed 100-day MA; the Ichimoku cloud is showing a wider depreciation. Based on the above, EUR/USD may reach the support at 1.1750.

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The pound cannot find a support. The deputy governor of the Bank of England said that the British economy was entering a "menopausal" phase after passing peak productivity. It can cause a further pressure on the pound. As a strong economy always supports the rate hike and as a result, a currency, a slow growth can lead to pound’s further decline. GBP/USD is moving to the support at 1.3450. No notable data is anticipated neither on Wednesday nor on Thursday. If the pair breaks 1.3450, the further aim is at 1.3380.

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The Australian dollar did not react highly to weak economic data. Wage Price Index was 0.5% versus 0.6% forecast. However, AUD/USD is rising. The pair rebounded from the support at 0.7450 and is moving to 0.75. However, the aussie remains unstable because of the weak economic data and the RBA’s policy. On Thursday, employment change and unemployment rate will be out at 4:30 MT time. The forecast is encouraging. Whether the actual data is greater than the forecast one, AUD/USD will be above the pivot point at 0.75.

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Oil lost some points on Tuesday, as private data showed a surplus in crude inventories. Official data will be out on Wednesday at 17:30 MT time. If the actual data shows a surplus as well, the oil will suffer. Otherwise, it will be able to return to previous highs. WTI managed to recover after Tuesday’s fall. The oil benchmark is trading above $71. However, Brent could not gain a foothold. It is below $78 (Tuesday’s high is $79.45). News on the Iranian deal might put pressure on the benchmark as Europe authorities vowed to keep the deal without the US. An easing of the tensions leads to the weaker Brent.

That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
 
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☑ Send us an Email to: [email protected]

We care about your enquiries and will be happy to reply them all around the clock
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#FBS #AlwaysByYourSide #Forex

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Andrea ForexMart

Broker Representative
Sluggish Q1 Growth Breaks The Longest Growth Since 1991


The largest economy cooled down sharply in the first quarter despite the onset of flu and strikes, which occurs simultaneously for the region that affecting negatively good growth rates.

The annualized growth rate of Germany slowed down to 1.2% from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the record of the Federal Statistics Office on Tuesday. Although, a sharp slowdown is already anticipated as it did not meet expectations on the U.S. growth rate of 2.3% in the same period.


However, various factors such as the strike of flu and numerous strikes on metals and engineering sectors, which causes slow down and most of the private sectors anticipate the recovery of economic activities in the second quarter or more.


Since 1991, Germany undergoes the longest growth recorded for the fifteenth consecutive quarter, according to the Statistics office. The momentum on investment spending has overshadowed the economic growth in the first three months of the year. On the other hand, exports slid down in the fourth quarter in the previous year.


A calm activity for the first quarter due to the more sickly staff at a higher level in ten years in February in reference to the BKK association of company health-insurance funds in Germany. A recorded of 500,000 workers in the metals and electrical engineering sectors contributed to the warning strikes in the latter weeks of January and early February, as stated by the IG Metall labor union of Germany. They were able to get a solid pay deal from the members.


However, economic indicators reflect that other European economies are also affected by the cold diseases and strikes. Later this Tuesday, the European Union's statistics agency will release the eurozone gross domestic product, which measures the economic output of goods and services. An increase was seen in the first quarter with 1.7% at an annualized rate, which is less than the 2.7% growth in the last quarter of 2017.


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American futures head south

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17.05.2018

On Thursday, the Wall Street index pointed to a sag at the start of the American market. The surge of yield of American government bonds kept putting pressure on market participants.

The Dow blue-chip index futures headed south 0.08% being worth 24719.0, while the S&P 500 futures lost 0.16%, hitting 2,718.75. As for futures of the high-tech Nasdaq 100, they slumped 0.36%, reaching 6912.00.

Market participants keep monitoring the value of American government bonds yield: the revenue on American ten-year government bonds inched down by 0.13%, hitting 3.091% after it hit its peak for seven years - 3,119%.

The jump in the revenue of American bonds along with the acceleration of inflation underpinned forecasts of a faster monetary tightening compared to previous FRS plans.

The White House generally neglected North Korea's threats that it would abandon the scheduled negotiations for June 12 in Singapore. On Wednesday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told in an interview with Fox News that Donald Trump is ready for negotiations with the leader of North Korea.

Before the publication of the report of the retailer Walmart, the equities of this company before the opening of the market slumped 1.07%. Stocks of Coca-Cola Company soared by 0.72%, and shares of General Electric jumped by 0.60%.

Equities of Cisco Systems Inc. went down 4.34% notwithstanding its quarterly report that turned out to be better than the forecasts of financial analysts. Additionally, Shire PLC ADR went down 1.16%, while Rio Tinto ADR managed to acquire 1.14%.

European stock markets inched up. The French CAC 40 ascended by 0.35%, the German DAX managed to grow by 0.21%, the London FTSE 100 gained 0.11%. In addition to this, the Euro-European index Euro Stoxx 50 leapt by 0.15%, the Spanish IBEX 35 leapt by up to 0.17%.

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Evergreen buck keeps to 5-month maximum

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17.05.2018

On Thursday, the evergreen buck kept to the maximum of five months versus the group of other leading currencies due to the surge of the revenue of American government bonds. The common currency traded below the 1.18 level amid worries about the political situation in Italy.

The US dollar index, displaying the purchasing power of the greenback against six leading currencies, came up with 93.28, staying close to the maximum of five months - 93.52 that was recorded on Wednesday. Since the beginning of this week, the US dollar index has edged down by approximately 0.93%.

The recent appreciation of the US currency can be explained by a jump in the yield of US bonds to a multi-year maximum.

During night trading, the revenue of 10-year US government bonds tacked on to 3,117%, which is the highest outcome since 2011. The profitability of bonds appears to be inversely proportional to their value.

Surge in the yield of American Treasury bonds has been observed since the Federal Reserve announced in May that inflation is approaching the objective of 2%.

The US key financial institution lifted the interest rate in March and gave a forecast for two more hikes this year. However, many investors are assured that there will be three such lifts.

The common currency remained under pressure: by the time of writing. As a matter of fact, the currency pair EUR/USD showed 1.1793 after Wednesday's dive to 1.1762, which is the lowest value since December 19.

Demand for the European currency dived due to worries about the formation of a government coalition in Italy. Market participants are afraid that changes in the country can provoke its exit from the euro area.

The greenback soared against the Japanese yen. The currency pair USD/JPY leapt by 0.18%, hitting 110.59, which is the highest value since January 23.

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Forex today: greenback’s uncertainties

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17.05.2018

On Wednesday, the US dollar index failed to close at $93.50 but did not lose much and ended the trading day at $93.30. However, the US currency formed a candlestick that resembles a spinning top. It signals an uncertainty of future trading. There is a possibility that the US dollar index will lose points during Thursday’s trading day. A pullback of the greenback will give chances for other currencies to recover.

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There is a high volatility in the pound. Firstly, it was rising on the news on Brexit. There were reports in the media that the UK is ready to stay tied to the customs union beyond 2021. Then, however, British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday that Britain will leave the EU customs union after all.

Earlier GBP/USD managed to break two important levels – the pivot point at 1.3540 and 200-day MA at 1.3550. Up to date, the pound is below those levels. On H1, we can see that the pound is swinging between 1.35-1.3550.

However, if the US dollar falls, the pound has chances to close above the pivot point at 1.3540. Otherwise, there is a possibility of the pullback to the support at 1.3450.

Trading is extremely volatile not only in GBP/USD but also in crosses like GBP/AUD. Supports lies at 1.7935 and 1.7860.

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Trade wars seem to intensify. Japan is ready to inform the WTO that it is ready to retaliate against US tariffs. The country is considering retaliating measures on the US exports that will worth about $409 million. More on trade wars. Negotiations between the US and China are continuing. Let’s see whether countries are able to come to an agreement or the result will be similar to the previous one.
New trade war’s tensions will weight on the Australian dollar. However, up to now, the aussie is rising on the positive economic data. Employment was greater than expected. The unemployment rate was weaker than the forecast, but it did not pull AUD down. AUD/USD managed to stick above the pivot point at 0.75. The further aim is at 0.7560. However, there is a negative signal of the MAs. 200-day MA is near to cross the 100-day MA. As soon as it happens, there will signal about the bearish movement. The support will lie at 0.75.
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The New Zealand dollar rose after the government forecast a higher surplus. However, the kiwi could not gain a foothold at new highs and fell. NZD/USD is again below the resistance at 0.69. No significant data will be released either today or on Friday. So there are risks of the kiwi’s fall. The next support is at 0.68.

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On Wednesday, crude oil inventories showed a weaker data than expected. It appeared to be an additional boost for oil. Brent is already near $80, WTI is trading near $72. Bullish fundamental data, strong demand, and supply disappointments are the main drivers of oil prices.
Strong oil is supporting the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD broke the support at 1.28 and is moving to 1.2740. No notable data for the loonie is anticipated to be released today. However, on Friday, traders will take into consideration CPI and core retail sales. The forecast is positive. Greater actual data may pull the USD/CAD pair lower.

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It is worth saying about Asia. The rupiah and stocks increased ahead of the Bank of Indonesia meeting. Investors predict a rise in the interest rate by 25 bps to 4.5%.

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That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
 
Important Economic News.

Canadian CPI

CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the main inflation indicator. As inflation affects monetary policy of a central bank, there are no doubts that traders should pay attention to CPI releases. The Bank of Canada continues to keep the interest rate unchanged. To raise the key rate the central bank needs a push from the economic data. If the CPI is greater than the forecast, the CAD will appreciate. Look at the CPI data at 15:30 MT time on May 18 to trade the Canadian dollar.

Folow this event on the FBS Economic Calendar https://fbs.com/analytics/calendar?...lish&utm_content=SebastianCPICalendarDCashPal

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#FBS #EconomicCalendar #CAD #CPI

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