Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Gold got in with doji
3/24/2017

On the daily chart of gold, the formation of two doji bars indicates uncertainty. To continue the rally, the bulls will need to update the March high/ A pullback towards $1,242 will lead to the development of correction towards $1,229 and $1,220. In general, the outlook for the pair is still bullish. You should consider buying on the rollbacks.

On the hourly chart of gold, the expanding wedge pattern has been formed. It may send the prices lower towards the 200% and 88.6% targets in the AB = CD and "Shark" patterns. They are located near the $1,237 and $1,229.

Recommendations:

BUY $1237 SL $1222 TP $1280,

BUY $1229 SL $1214 TP $1280.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12990

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 24
3/24/2017

The US dollar regained some losses in the Tokyo session as Trump still didn’t get a vote on his healthcare bill. Yesterday U.S. President said to lawmakers that he wants a vote (up or down) today. Otherwise, he will have to leave Obamacare in place and move forward with tax reform. It seems that Donald Trump is a Rolling Stones fan as he learned their lesson “You can’t always get what you want” well. The vote on the new healthcare legislation has been seen by financial markets as a test of Trump's ability to work with Congress to deliver on other parts of his agenda (government procurements, infrastructure spending, tax cuts and other fiscal expansionary measures). In addition to this healthcare conundrum, we got a Reuters report stating that the US Administration is preparing a streak of new executive orders to re-examine all 14 US free trade agreement. The NAFTA agreement is on the top of the list. In the near-term, we might see Mexican peso and Loonies bleeding.

The euro traded lower in the course of the past session. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0765. The pair is still going through the consolidation phase moving in a tight range of 1.0705/1.0825. A move towards 1.0870 is not ruled out. On the downside, there is a sturdy support at 1.0735 (50-H4 MA). if it’s tested, it will be a signal of the downtrend restoration. Today’s focus will be on the French, German, Austrian preliminary PMI. The consensus forecasts promise strong readings. Solid economic releases will be supportive for the European currency.

USD/JPY slumped to 110.60 overnight. In the early hours of Tokyo session, the yen succumbed to USD after BoJ’s Governor Kuroda said that he sees no reason to reduce monetary easing now. He also added that the BoJ’s policy-makers are not going to raise yield target at the present moment until the bank’s inflation target is hit. The traders should pay closer attention to the US durable goods today.

Aussie fell to 0.7615 in the past sessions. The move was not triggered by any specific news. A deeper pullback towards 0.7600/0.7555 level is not ruled out. If AUD manages to reclaim 0.7700 we will be able to conclude that the downward pressure has eased.

The British pound was the top performer in the previous session. It spiked above 1.2530 overnight as we received a better than expected retail sales release from the UK. In the Tokyo morning, GBP has ceded its ground to the greenback. It seems that the bullish phase has started to phase out. The immediate support can be found at around 1.2415.

USD/CAD picked up to 1.3368 on the session. The market participants will be waiting for the inflation data from Canada coming at 14:30 pm MT time. Oil prices hit their three-months lows ($50.70) on investor concerns that OPEC-led supply cuts are not leading to the reduction of US oil stockpiles.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12991

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Friday, March 24th
3/24/2017

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 23 275 ? - 188 956 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0770; 1.0798; 1.0820(?); 1.0854
Closest support levels 1.0756; 1.0723; 1.0680; 1.0654
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0770, with target points at 1.0798 and 1.0820
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0756 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0680

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 58 ? + 111 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2498; 1.2521; 1.2541
Closest support levels 1.2480; 1.2455; 1.2429; 1.2397
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2480 (or from 1.2498), with target points at 1.2455 and 1.2429
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2498 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2521 and 1.2541

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12992

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: support waiting for bears
3/24/2017

We’ve got a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is declining. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0828.

There’s a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed by the last “Pennant” pattern. So, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0731 – 1.0713 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.0797 – 1.0811.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12993

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to bearish correction
3/24/2017

The pair faced a resistance at 1.2522, so we’ve got a confirmed “Double Top”, which pushed the price to a support at 1.2477. In this case, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.2438 – 1.2411 in the short term. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.2522 – 1.2547.

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating near a support at 1.2477. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12994

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for March 27-31
3/24/2017

The British pound soared to 1.2530 mainly on the upbeat economic releases coming from the UK. CPI figures pushed up through the Bank of England’s 2% target. UK monthly retail sales posted a stronger-than-expected growth of 1.4% having broken a weakening trend which was present in the past two months.

Next week on March 29 the UK PM Theresa May will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and start lengthy negotiation over Britain’s departure from the EU. As most of the negative news and Brexit uncertainty is already reflected in the price, we don’t expect massive troughs from the pound. Another market trigger will probably be Trump’s fiscal policies. On the data front, traders will closely watch US consumer confidence indicator, final GDP, and unemployment claims. UK current account data and final GDP figures will be released on Friday.

Technically, the bullish phase that has started on Monday is still intact. The next physical hurdles can be found at 1.2570 (February 24 high) and 1.2620 (trendline from December high). But the numerous fundamental factors that we’ve previously identified will probably not allow the pound to hit these levels. As we approach towards the official launch of the Brexit negotiations GBP/USD will probably slide towards the supports at 1.2420 (100-day MA), 1.2377 (200-H4 MA) and 1.2105 (March low).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12995

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" waiting for bulls
3/24/2017

We’ve got a “Morning Doji Star”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the upper “Window”. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

There’s a “Tweezers” at the local low. At the same time, we’ve got a bearish “Doji”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction. However, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12999

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to test the nearest support
3/24/2017

The last bearish “Engulfing” hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the nearest support level. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

The 34 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a confirmed “Engulfing” on this line. In this case, bears are likely going to continue pushing the price lower, so we could have a new low soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13000

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave 2 is going to be ended
3/24/2017

Wave 2 is taking form of a double zigzag. The main intraday target for wave (c) of [y] is +2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish wave.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a diagonal triangle in wave v of (c). Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high during the day. If a pullback from the upper side of the triangle be on the table, bears will probably try to deliver a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13001

 

[riki143]

EUR/CAD reversed from key support level 1.4370
3/24/2017

EUR/CAD reversed from key support level 1.4370
Next buy targets - 1.4500 and 1.4600
EUR/CAD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the key support level 1.4370 (former strong resistance level from December, acting as support now after it was broken previously by the active minor C-wave which belongs to the intermediate ABC correction (B) from the middle of February.

EUR/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4500 (which reversed the price earlier this month) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4600.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13002

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF broke key support level 0.7450
3/24/2017

CAD/CHF broke key support level 0.7450
Next sell target - 0.7350
CAD/CHF continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the key support level 0.7450 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in December, as can be seen below). The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (1) from the start of December.

CAD/CHF is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7350 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13003

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, March 27th
3/25/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 3 479 ? - 117 309 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0817; 1.0850; 1.0871; 1.0903-11
Closest support levels 1.0787; 1.0738; 1.0693; 1.0667
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0787 (or from 1.0817), with target points at 1.0738 and 1.0693
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0817 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0850 and 1.0871

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 12 ? + 97 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2491; 1.2525-30; 1.2562; 1.2597
Closest support levels 1.2476; 1.2429; 1.2399; 1.2364
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2476 (or from 1.2525), with target points at 1.2429 and 1.2399
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2491 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2525 and 1.2562

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 142 ? + 113 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3392; 1.3421; 1.3472; 1.3497
Closest support levels 1.3342; 1.3316; 1.3277; 1.3252
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3392 (or from 1.3342), with the target points at 1.3421 and 1.3472
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3342 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3316 and 1.3277

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13004

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is going to 5-W highs
3/27/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2500, 1.2450; resistance – 1.2550.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2550; SL — 1.2570; TP1 — 1.2500; TP2 — 1.2450.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13005

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie supported by SSB
3/27/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7600/20, 0.7570; resistance – 0.7670, 0.7700.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by bottom border of the Cloud.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/13006/03-audusdh4(92).png[/IG]

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13006]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13006[/URL]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: gap formation was favorable for bulls
3/27/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is an uptrend developing towards 161.8% ? 88.6% targets in the AB=CD and Bat patterns. There was a gap on the technical chart. The bulls managed to test the resistance at 1.0822. Until quotes are still above this level, the control over the pair will in bulls' hands.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, to launch the counterattack the bears need to get the signals from the Three movements pattern. For this to happen, the bulls should fail the test of the resistance at 1.087, then, prices should slide below the support at 1.0825.

Recommendation: hold longs (BUY 1,0775 SL 1,072 TP1 1,086 TP2 1,104), until quotes are above 1.082.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13007

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi wants to rise higher
3/27/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, bulls managed to return quotes to the upper border of the downward trading channel. If they manage to test it successfully, there will be a continuation of the rally towards 0.711 and 0.717. In contrast, the rollback from upper border can lead to the realization of 5-0 pattern.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. it tells us that the control over the pair is in the bulls' hands. A successful test of the resistance at 0.707 followed by the update of March high will activate the AB=CD pattern. Its 200% target is located near 0.718.

Recommendation: BUY 0,707 SL 0,7015 TP 0,718.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13008

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 27
3/27/2017

The US dollar ran out of steam in the Tokyo morning. It has weakened significantly against a basket currencies. The main fundamental factor that fueled USD sell-off was President Donald Trump’s failure to replace the 2010 Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare). The defeat on the US healthcare legislation raised investors’ concerns over Mr. Trump’s ability to push through other policies suggested by his administration. US political focus now shifts to long-awaited tax reform, arguably a more important piece of legislation (especially for equity markets).

EUR/USD jumped to 1.0845 in the opening hours of Asian session ripping through 1.0825/30 hurdles in its path. A bullish momentum is still intact. The euro may rise towards the next resistance lines at 1.0870/1.0875. One of the fundamental factors that boosted EUR buying was a big win of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative in a regional election held at the weekend. Exit polling showed that CDU (Merkel’s party) won 40.1%. it’s a great result in the countdown to the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 24, 2017. In the economic front, there will be German Ifo Business climate. The consensus forecast shows an increase. The upbeat data will send the euro higher.

Aussie fell to 0.7630 against the greenback in today’s session. The upper border of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe serves as a sturdy support for the prices. AUD may weaken further towards 0.7605, 0.7545 unless it manages to reclaim 0.7700.

Kiwi surged to 0.7055 in the morning. It has all chance to rise further towards the nearest hurdles at 0.7088, 0.7115 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). The economic calendar is empty for NZD/USD today.

The British pound spiked to 1.2530 on the USD weakness resulted from the rejection of the Trumpcare bill. A focus shifted to tax reforms now. They will likely fill a lot of headlines ahead of March 29 (the Brexit deadline). On Wednesday, the UK PM Theresa May will trigger Article 50. A European response is expected within 48 hours thereafter.

USD/CAD was trading lower at the end of the Asian session. The prices are hovering around the 1.3330 at the present moment. On the downside, there is a strong support lying at 1.3280. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.3410. Oil prices lowered to $50.45 on the session as investors saw that OPEC-led output cuts don’t reduce the US crude oil inventories. At the weekend meeting ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers agreed to review the question of whether the output cut deal should be extended by six months or not.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13009

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Breakaway Gap" pushed the price higher
3/27/2017

There’s a “Pennant”, which upper side has been broken, so we’ve got a “Breakaway Gap”. Therefore, the price faced a resistance at 1.0850. However, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.0873 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0811.

We’ve got a “Breakaway Gap”, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0873. If bulls be stopped by this level, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0811.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13011

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" led to new high
3/27/2017

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2522, so we’ve got a “Pennant”. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2569 – 1.2581 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to have a downward correction.

We’ve got a “Triple Bottom”, which has been confirmed by the last “Breakaway Gap”. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2569. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.2506 – 1.2492 as an intraday bearish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13012

 

[riki143]

Oil market overview
3/27/2017

At the weekend, a joint committee of energy ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries pledged to consider extending output deal cut for additional 6 months.

Venezuela’s Oil Minister Nelson Martinez supported the idea of deal extension. Iraq, Algeria and Angola also said that they would back a prolongation of the deal. Mohammed Al Rumhy, energy minister of non-OPEC producer Oman, said that a further extension of the supply reducing deal looks expedient. Kuwait was the first nation calling for extension of output cut agreement.

The biggest OPEC supplier Saudi Arabia has indicated that it won’t be against the prolongation of the agreement if global crude oil stockpiles remain above their five-year average.

There are several factors that undermined the effectiveness of the November supply reduction deals: low seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, rising non-OPEC supply (the recent estimate of compliance rate of the non-OPEC members reached 64%). A further extension of the deal could be a rational decision once the impact of aforementioned factors is eliminated.

Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the country is not ready to support a possible extension of oil-supply cuts in the second half of the year, even if the majority of oil suppliers acknowledge their contribution to the reduction of global oil stockpiles. He also said that Russia won’t make any pledges until April as it needs more time to assess the oil market, inventories and US drilling activity and non-OPEC countries’ production. This was a massive drag for oil prices.

Additional factor that led to the quotes’ downfall was Baker Hughes rig count data released last Friday. It revealed that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil increased by 21. It was the tenth weekly increase in a row.

Brent oil futures slumped to $50.60 in the opening hours of Monday’s session.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13013