Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

GBP/USD: technical analysis
3/17/2017

GBP, H4

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2382, so the price reached a support at 1.2347 afterwards. Also, there’s a developing “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2411 in the short term. Nevertheless, if a pullback from this level be on the table, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible bearish target.

GBP, H1

The price is consolidating along a support at 1.2347. Considering the last “Pennant” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2382 – 1.2411. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to approach a support at 1.2347 – 1.2315.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12900

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

The kiwi dollar jumped to 0.7050 on Wednesday after Fed’s officials refused to accelerate the current pace of the monetary tightening. Towards the end of the past week, there was a pullback towards 0.6970. New Zealand’s annual growth rate slowed further despite surging immigration, low borrowing costs and evident activity in the housing sector. This casts doubt on the latest central bank’s projection that growth would accelerate to more than 4% by the second half of 2017.

The main focus of the next week will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Most analysts expect the central bank to stay on hold adopting a wait-and-see approach. Ahead of the meeting, we will get an update of global dairy prices. Then we will be waiting for Thursday’s Fed Chair Yellen speech followed by the comments on the US economic outlook from other FOMC members.

The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. NZD/USD might spend a few days in the consolidation phase before facing rather sturdy resistances at 0.7050 (38.2% Fibo retracement level from last year low), 0.7120 and 0.7140. A pullback below 0.6940 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased and the way towards the next support at 0.6915 (50% Fibo retracement level) is open.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12901

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

GBP/USD surged to 1.2390. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but its member Kristin Forbes voted for a hike thereby showing that policymakers becoming more and more concerned with a rise in inflation. Her vote surprised the market and made the pound rise. Post-FOMC weakness of the US dollar was another tailwind for the British pound. On the political front, Theresa May has finally received a formal permission to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold another referendum on the Scottish independence of the country was rejected by the UK Prime Minister who tries to avoid spreading the country’s resources between defending the British integrity and securing advantageous separation with the EU. This news offered additional support to the pound.

Next week keep an eye on the UK CPI figures and retail sales coming on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. From the US, we will be waiting for the comments on the US economic outlook from numerous FOMC members, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled for Thursday accompanied by the UK retail sales and the US unemployment claims, as well as the US core durable goods orders on Friday.

Technically, short-term indicators remain in neutral-bearish territory and might prompt a retracement towards immediate supports at 1.2350, 1.2290 (100-H4 MA) and 1.2210 (near 50-H4 MA). A break above resistance at 1.2430 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, downtrend line) suggests a further uplift towards the resistances at 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2550.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12902

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a support
3/17/2017

We’ve got a bearish “Tower” on the nearest resistance area. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

There’s an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to achieve the closest support and the 55 Moving Average, which both could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12903

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new local low
3/17/2017

here’s a bullish “Hammer”, which hasn’t been confirmed. Also, the last candles are bearish, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

The price is consolidating, so the upper “Window” is acting as a resistance. In this case, bears are likely going to deliver a new local low during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12904

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: outlook for March 20-24
3/17/2017

USD/CAD slumped to 1.3280 after the FOMC meeting. The decline was short-lived, however. Towards the end of the week, the greenback revived its bullish momentum and rose to 1.3330.

Next week we will be waiting for a number of economic releases: retail sales and inflation figures from Canada, existing home sales and current account data from the US. Canadian annual budget release might become an additional market trigger. Another focus will be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen and FOMC officials’ speeches scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively.

At the present moment, USD/CAD is trading tightly near the 100-day MA (around 1.3300 level) consolidating after Wednesday’s impressive decline. A further support can be found at 1.3280 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud). If it is broken the quote will slide further towards 1.3215 (200-H4 MA), or 1.3115. A break of resistances at 1.3385/1.3420 will be a signal of the restoration of the uptrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12905

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave (i) started
3/17/2017

It’s likely that wave [ii] ended on the four-hours chart. Therefore, if a pullback from 8/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have bearish wave (i). The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

There’s a possible diagonal triangle in wave (c) of [ii]. So, bears are likely going to deliver wave i. If a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a local upward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12907

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bulls are going to attack
3/21/2017

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, there is a transformation of the inverted "Shark" pattern into 5-0. The return of quotes to the level of 121.8 (23.6% of the CD wave) will increase the risks of recovery of the uptrend. In contrast, a successful test of the support at 120.65 can lead to the development of correction towards 120.5 and 119.95 levels.

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, 121.4 is the immediate resistance level. Its breakout will activate the inverted "Shark" pattern with the target of 122.45. A more secure entry point to BUY is the area of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel.

Recommendation: BUY 122,8 SL 122,25 TP 123,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12932

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls took a break
3/21/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.0705-1.0785. A breakout of its upper border will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.086, and then, towards 1.104 (target 161,8% in the AB = CD pattern ). In contrast, a successful test of the support at 1.0705 can lead to the development of the correction towards 1.0635 and 1.06 levels.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the Dragon pattern was successfully implemented. At the present moment, there is a formation of the triangle. A successful test of its upper border and resistance at 1.0775 will open the way for the bulls to the north. "Bears" expect a drop of the quotes below the support at 1.072.

Recommendations:

BUY 1,0775 SL 1,072 TP1 1,086 TP2 1,104,

SELL 1,0705 SL 1,076 TP 1,06.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12933

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: euro still under resistance
3/21/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0740, 1.0700; resistance – 1.0800/20.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0800; SL — 1.0820; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0700.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines Senkou Span A and B are horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under a daily resistance; the market is overbought.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12934

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: bears took the situation under control
3/22/2017

On the USD/CHF daily chart, a breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel was a signal for the restoration of the downtrend. If sellers manage to send quotes below the support at 0.985, the prices might move lower towards the 161.8% and 88.6% targets in the AB=CD and Shark patterns.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern has been realized. Bears' attacked has been stopped near the important 0.9927 level (78,6% from the last upward wave). If it is tested successfully and the support at 0.9896 is broken, sellers will absolute winners.

Recommendations: SELL 0,9895 SL 0,995 TP 0,966.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12951

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen strives to strengthen more
3/22/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the prices returned to the limits of the previous trading channel. This is a signal of the restoration of the downtrend. An update of February lows will activate the AB = CD pattern. Its 200% target is located near the 108 mark. At the same time, if bears fail to keep quotes below the resistance at 111.75, it will be evidence of their weakness and will allow bulls to launch a counterattack.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes almost reached the 113% target in the AB = CD pattern. This may lead to the development of consolidation in the range of 111.25-112.85.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12952

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is made new highs
3/22/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2420; resistance – 1.2525.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2420; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2560.

Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under strong resistance; expected a correction to Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12953

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: aussie going down to Cloud
3/22/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7640, 0.7620; resistance – 0.7700, 0.7730.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7700; TP2 — 0.7730.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled golden cross of rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in a correction to the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12954

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for March 22
3/22/2017

Market participants diminished their appetites for the USD and switched to high yielding currencies.

The yen was an absolute gainer in the Asian session. USD/JPY slumped to 111.65. Earlier this morning we’ve got BoJ’s January meeting minutes. Most of the members that price momentum is not firm yet; the BoJ might start raising its rates in response to surging treasury yields. It will be the first stage of QQE tapering. Also, there was news on the wires of another North Korea missile launch (apparently, it was failed). But the market’s response was limited.

Aussie lost its ground vis-à-vis its American counterpart. AUD/USD slid to 0.7660. it seems that the upward pressure post-FOMC has eased off. Most likely, the Australian dollar will be trading sideways in the range of 0.7600 – 0.7730.

Kiwi edged down to 0.7035 on the session. Today’s focus will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement. Analysts expect the RBNZ to leave its rates unchanged and refuse to recourse to further easing. The immediate resistance on the upside lies at around 0.7115. Falling commodity prices and dovish tone of the meeting would send NZD to negative area towards the nearest supports at 0.7010 and 0.6980.

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2475 overnight after the strong release of the UK CPI data and indication of the exact data of Article 50 trigger. CPI figures pushed up through the BoE’s target of 2.0$. It was 2.3% (the market expected 2.1% print). Sterling was already surging into the report, afterward, it got an additional boost. There is no economic data for the pound on the agenda. USD dynamic will continue to determine GBP/USD path without any catalyst from the UK.

EUR/USD surged to 1.0815 but failed to stand there for long after the buying dried up. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, the euro slipped to 1.0800. Fed’s Loretta Mester was speaking. Her speech wasn’t really upbringing for USD watchers as she underlined that there is no urgency to lift rates quicker than is currently priced in. The greenback will likely be willing to consolidate within the narrow range of 1.0820-1.0750 this week. On the downside, there are several supports at 1.0775, 1.0745.

USD/CAD moved to 1.3375. Loonie felt weak despite yesterday’s upbeat economic data (Canadian retail sales). Today’s focus will be on the gov council member Schembri’s speech. On the upside, there is still a sturdy resistance at 1.3420. The immediate support lies near the 100-day MA at 1.3300.

Oil prices posted new lows having slid to $50.60 after industry estimates (API) showed a sharp increase in US inventories. A launch of the North Korean missile was an additional headwind for oil futures.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12955

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, March 22nd

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 50 007 ? + 89 134 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0847; 1.0869; 1.0889; 1.0923
Closest support levels 1.0810; 1.0780; 1.0731; 1.0686
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0810 (or from 1.0847), with target points at 1.0780 and 1.0731
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0847 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0869 and 1.0889

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 35 ? + 190 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2512; 1.2535; 1.2560; 1.2600
Closest support levels 1.2502; 1.2448; 1.2404; 1.2344
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2502, with target points at 1.2448 and 1.2404
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2512 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2535 and 1.2560

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 301 ? - 35 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3355; 1.3378; 1.3416; 1.3468
Closest support levels 1.3328; 1.3305; 1.3284; 1.3247
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3355, with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3416
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3328 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3305 and 1.3284

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12957

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bullish "Flag" led to new high
3/22/2017

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0811. At the same time, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0828 – 1.0850. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0797 – 1.0774.

There’s a bullish “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0828 – 1.0850. However, if a pullback from these levels be on the table, bears will probably try to reach the closest support at 1.0797 – 1.0774.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12958

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: resistance waiting for bulls
3/22/2017

The price has been consolidating since the downtrend was broken. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2506 – 1.2522 during the day. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be a chance to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2469 – 1.2438.

We’ve got a “Flag”, so bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2506 – 1.2522 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area arrives afterwards, bears will probably try to set up a downward correction, so we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.2469 – 1.2438 as an intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12959

 

[riki143]

Gold market overview
3/22/2017

Gold prices hit their March high at $1247 in the European session posting gains for six consecutive days. A further upsurge is not ruled out. To determine whether there will be a retracement, we suggest you looking at gold fundamentals and XAU/USD technical chart.

Fundamentals:

The political uncertainties over European election and Brexit offer substantial support for the gold prices. The recent spike in the gold prices should be attributed to another factor. Lots of the gold’s gains came after the Fed raised its interest rate, but maintained a more subdued pace for future rate hikes. An expectation for a slower pace of rate increases will be the factor of the gold appreciation.

Another tailwind may well come from India, the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal. Last year, Indian gold demand plummeted from 857,2 tonnes to 675.5 tonnes mainly because of the governmental regulation necessitating the removal of high denomination 500 and 1,000 rupee notes in November. This year the Indian demand is recovering: gold imports jumped to 50 tonnes in February which 82% more than India demanded in the same month last year.

Another gold consumer People’s Republic of China might increase its demand for gold. The main factor it the value of yuan. Chinese yuan depreciate with unpredictable pace, so the investors might be willing to switch to gold as a hedge.

Technical analysis:

The precious metal rallied to $1,247 overnight. The key resistance on its way is lying at $1,250 near the 78.6 Fibo level traced from this year high. A breakout of this level will open the way towards next hurdles at 1,255.60, 1,260. An immediate support lies at $1,237.50 (61.8% Fibo level) and at $1221.40 (near 38.2% Fibo level coinciding with 50-day MA).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12960[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going test "Window"
3/22/2017

We’ve got a bearish “Hanging Man”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support area. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high.

There’re a “Tweezers” and a “High Wave”, which both led to the current decline. At the same time, we’ve got a bullish “Hammer”, but its confirmation isn’t enough. In this case, bears are likely going to test the lower “Window” soon.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12962