Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" points to possible new high
9/22/2016

There’s a “Double Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward price movement. Therefore, bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.1228 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll an opportunity to have a downward correction in the direction of a support at 1.1181.

We’ve got another “Double Bottom” on the one-hour chart, which has been confirmed by the last “Flag” pattern. So, the price is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1225 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from here, bears will probably try to get a support on the 34 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10571

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" pushed market higher
9/22/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2934, which led to form a “Triple Bottom” pattern, so the price is rising. It’s likely that bulls are going to move on, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.3089 – 1.3115 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance to have a decline towards a support at 1.3022.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from this line be on the table, then bears will probably try to set up a downward correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10572

 

[riki143]

Morning briefing: what we have been through and what to expect from this day
9/22/2016

FOMC, RBA and RBNZ recap

Now, when tensions defused and the dust settled, we can take a deep breath. In the past 24 hours we heard Yellen, Lowe, Wheeler speaking of the health of their national economies and economic projections. Let’s review their speeches and then turn to the occurrences of this day.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged, but there is gleam of hope, that the board will be hawkish at the next meeting (November 2nd). Well, we won’t do any projections in this respect; likelihood of this occurring will be entirely dependent upon further economic data going forward. It seems that for the FOMC perfectionists there's always something to strive for. Even now, when the US labor market continues to strengthen, economic growth has picked up from its baby steps seen in the first half of this year, and inflation running 2%, they managed to find a room for improvements. Who knows, what happens in November, the cautious Fed might not agree for a rate hike waiting for the results of another major event – the US Presidential elections.

RBNZ also decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged, echoing its forethoughtful colleagues. But there was a slight dovish lean in the statement of the RBNZ’s Governor. The further easing will be required, according to Wheeler, to give an impulse to the NZ’s economic growth, and high NZD hinders this process.

RBA Governor Lowe said nothing new to surprise or scare the market. The Bank, struggling to survive in the world of low interest rates, is not going to rise in the nearest future, as low wage inflation and weak commodity prices exhibit additional pressure on the economy.

How this affected the currency pairs:

USD/JPY tested a little lower, but didn't manage to reach 100, then it bounced back to just under 100.50.

NZD/USD experienced small changes with little news and no developments to impact. It dropped from the 0,73480 high today to the 0,7330 level.

EUR/USD currency pair has risen slightly today to the 1,122 level, but still didn’t come through big changes since yesterday.

Aussie grew in value a little bit and almost reached the 0,765 mark on the AUD/USD chart.

And what this day will bring us later?

After all these eloquent speeches it’s Draghi's turn to come into play. The ECB President is speaking later today at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference. Keep glued to the monitors, since there is often a risk of high volatility during his speeches. And then, Mark Carney (BOE Governor) will act Mario Draghi off the screen. Traders will scrutinize his public speech looking for some clues regarding future monetary policy.

Another important news will come from the USA. We expect US unemployment claims later this day. The reading suggests the employment market is strengthening. The forecast for the number of claims is 261,000. The data is an important signal of overall economic health because it partially reflects consumer spending.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10574

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Triangle" going to move on
9/22/2016

There’s a possible “Triangle”, which is a part of a “Double Three” pattern. Therefore, it’s likely that bulls are going to test the upper side if this “Triangle” soon. If a pullback happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new bearish trend.

We’ve got a bullish impulse, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. There’s a possible extension in wave (iii) of [a]. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver a couple of new highs during the day. If we see a pullback from +1/8 MM Level, bears will probably try to deliver wave of E.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10578

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, September 22th
9/22/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 28 195 ? + 1 967 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.1256; 1.1275; 1.1300; 1.1332
Closest support levels 1.1205; 1.1185; 1.1168; 1.1143
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1256, with target points at 1.1275 and 1.1300
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1205 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1185 and 1.1168


GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 3 357? + 264 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3092; 1.3113; 1.3138; 1.3168
Closest support levels 1.3020; 1.3000; 1.2982; 1.2952
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.3092, with target points at 1.3113 and 1.3138
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3020 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3000 and 1.2982


USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 2 237 ? + 1 321 ?
Closest resistance levels 100.83; 101.03; 101.29; 101.58
Closest support levels 100.15; 99.89; 99.60; 99.39
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 100.83, with target points at 101.03 and 101.29
Alternative scenario Moving below 100.15 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 99.89 and 99.60

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10579

 

[riki143]

NZD/CAD reversed from long-term resistance level 0.9640
9/22/2016

NZD/CAD reversed from long-term resistance level 0.9640
Next sell target - 0.9500
NZD/CAD continues to fall – following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the major long-term resistance level 0.9640 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the start of 2014, as can be seen from the weekly NZD/CAD chart below). If the pair closes this week near the current levels – it will then form the strong weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star (strong bearish signal).

Given the overbought reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - NZD/CAD can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9500. Powerful resistance remains at 0.9640.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10580/NZDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Sep-22_1210_PM_(1_week).png[/IMG}

More:
[URL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10580]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10580[/URL]

 

[riki143]

GBP/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.7750
9/22/2016

GBP/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.7750
Next buy target - 1.8270
GBP/NZD recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 1.7750 (low of the previous impulse waves ? and (1)), which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The support zone near the support level 1.7750 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from the 1.7750 stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3.

Given the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator and the strength of the support level 1.7750 - GBP/NZD is expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.8270 (which reversed earlier waves (2) and 2).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10581

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD ahead Core Retail Sales: Dynamic support in focus
9/23/2016

Today at 12:30 GMT will be published the Canadian's core retail sales on a monthly basis (July) and market's analysts are expecting an increase from -0.8% to 0.5%. This is a key macro indicator to measure consumer confidence in Canada and we should remind that the retail sales came lower during June's release, which was well below the forecasts. Another factor to have in mind is the current OPEC discussions in Argelia that are driving currently the Oil and CAD pairs are closely watching for those moves.

The technical picture at H4 chart for USD/CAD is strongly bearish, helped by the recent US dollar weakness lived after FOMC's meeting. However, the Loonie is finding support at the 1.3005 level, where it converges with the 200 SMA, providing some kind of dynamic support across the board. If data comes above the expectations, then the pair may resume the bearish bias and it could test the support level of 1.2951, while the other scenario can boost the USD/CAD pair to test the resistance level of 1.3135.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10586

 

[riki143]

Gold: bears will struggle to death
9/23/2016

On the daily chart of gold, we can observe the consolidation within the range of $1305-1365 in the "Splash and shelf" pattern. As soon as the quotes surpass the upper and lower boundaries of the defined range, we will be able to determine the further direction of their movement. If "bulls" fail to hold their positions above $1334, it will warn us of their weakness.

On the hourly chart of gold, the target on the inverted "Crab" pattern has been reached. A break of resistance at $1348 (88.6% Fibonacci of the last downward wave) will increase the risks of restoring the long-term uptrend. And, on the contrary, a drop in prices below the $1324 support will contribute to the fall of quotations in the direction of the lower boundary of the consolidation within the range of $1305-1365.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10587

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: bulls stayed too long
9/23/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, 'bears" managed to reach the level of 1,305. If they fail to test the support at 1.2977, it will warn us of their weakness. "Bulls" will be ready to start the counter attack, as soon as they manage to overcome the 1.31 level.

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, formation of the 1-2-3 reversal model tells us that quotes will rise. The target of the "Crab" pattern is at 1,314-1,315.

Recommendations: BUY 1,309 SL 1,3035 TP1 1,315 TP2 1,33.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10588

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: going to the Cloud
9/23/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.3020/30; resistance – 1.3100, 1.3190.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.3020/30; SL — 1.3000; TP1 — 1.3100; TP2 — 1.3190.

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud but the rising SSA; the prices are on the support of Tenkan-Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10589

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: heavy zone on 0.7670
9/23/2016

Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7670.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700.

Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A; but still an overbought market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10590

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: the correction complete
9/23/2016

Technical levels: support – 100.30; resistance – 101.20/40.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 101.00; SL — 101.20; TP1 — 100.60; TP2 — 100.10.

Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling down SSA; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; falling Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10591

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls for a while
9/23/2016

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to decline towards the Moving Averages. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1165 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.1256 as a possible intraday target.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10593/23-9-2016-EUR-H1-3.jpg[/IMG]

We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver an achievement of the nearest support at 1.1168 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1241 – 1.1260.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10593

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "V-Top" led to bearish correction
99/23/2016

Bulls faced a resistance at 1.3115, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so the price is declining. In this case, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach a support at 1.2995 shortly. However, if a pullback from this support be on the table, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of the 34 Moving Average.

There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3033. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the next support at 1.3019 – 1.2995. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to deliver an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.3115 – 1.3137.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10594

 

[riki143]

UK economy after Brexit vote and GBP/USD forecasts
9/23/2016

Elections, upheavals among citizens, strikes, coup d’Etat can wreak havoc on a currency. And the Brexit referendum is an indisputable confirmation of this tendency. Nobody expected that UK people will vote to leave the EU, and there it was – a clap of thunder – they did it. The pound plummeted from its highs responding to this unexpected turn of events. In most situations, however, the dust settles and currencies return to their pre-crisis rates and adjust to the country's economic growth prospects. Let’s look at the UK economy and try to define the GBP follows this pattern.

So far, since the “Black Thursday” of June 23, there is no sign of ruin in the UK real economy. Moreover, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) believes that it will grow at 1,8 % this year. Right after the referendum many economists drew a rather gloomy picture of the UK future. They tried to convince us that the “Brexit” would lead to a sell-off of assets, that purchasing power of British people would be distorted; that business confidence would disappear. Investment banks, including Barclays and Credit Suisse, even predicted the economy would shrink significantly in 2017. Yet that has not really come true – business confidence is gradually recovering, although investments did fall since the thrice-cursed referendum; and consumers spend as enthusiastically as they used to.

Now, let’s look at the technical picture and define what is happening with pound after these rattling events. As we see there is a strong downward trend on the daily chart since June, but there is a glimpse of hope for the GBP resurrection. Due to the economic recovery, it managed to slow down its fall and found several supports at 1, 279, 1,286 and 1,294 levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10596

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave E going to be continued
9/23/2016

There’s a possible zigzag in wave E of (Y), which is taking place on the four-hours chart. So, it’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave [c] in the short term. The main intraday target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave E ended.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a bullish impulse in wave [a]. Also, we’ve got a zigzag in wave , which highlights a possibility to have another bullish impulse in wave [c] of E. If a pullback from +2/8 MM Level happens, bears will probably try to return into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10595

 

[riki143]

UK economy after Brexit vote and GBP/USD forecasts
9/23/2016

Elections, upheavals among citizens, strikes, coup d’Etat can wreak havoc on a currency. And the Brexit referendum is an indisputable confirmation of this tendency. Nobody expected that UK people will vote to leave the EU, and there it was – a clap of thunder – they did it. The pound plummeted from its highs responding to this unexpected turn of events. In most situations, however, the dust settles and currencies return to their pre-crisis rates and adjust to the country's economic growth prospects. Let’s look at the UK economy and try to define the GBP follows this pattern.

So far, since the “Black Thursday” of June 23, there is no sign of ruin in the UK real economy. Moreover, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) believes that it will grow at 1,8 % this year. Right after the referendum many economists drew a rather gloomy picture of the UK future. They tried to convince us that the “Brexit” would lead to a sell-off of assets, that purchasing power of British people would be distorted; that business confidence would disappear. Investment banks, including Barclays and Credit Suisse, even predicted the economy would shrink significantly in 2017. Yet that has not really come true – business confidence is gradually recovering, although investments did fall since the thrice-cursed referendum; and consumers spend as enthusiastically as they used to.

Now, let’s look at the technical picture and define what is happening with pound after these rattling events. As we see there is a strong downward trend on the daily chart since June, but there is a glimpse of hope for the GBP resurrection. Due to the economic recovery, it managed to slow down its fall and found several supports at 1, 279, 1,286 and 1,294 levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10596

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & Draghi's testimony at European Parliament: 1.1300 on the cards?
9/26/2016

Today at 14:00 GMT, ECB's President Mario Draghi will testify at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament and markets are expecting volatility during his speech, because topics of inflation and QE may be discussed by the central bank's head. However, following Draghi's style, it might bring no hints about further steps on ECB's monetary policies and it can't produce the volatility that we expect.

Our technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still showing a big sideways range, where the pair has been trapped since August. The resistance zone of 1.1246 is still strong and it might help to strengthen the overall bearish structure of EUR/USD (showed since August 18th). If Draghi's words are dovish, we can expect a breakout below the 1.1195 level, with the nearest target placed at the 1.1129 zone.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10610

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: Aussie is ready to go up
9/26/2016

On the AUD/USD daily chart, quotes are moving within the medium-term rising channel. At the end of the last week, the "bulls" failed to break through the 0.767 resistance line. However, if they manage to do so in the future, the upward trend will continue up to the 0,78 level. There is a Target 113% of the Shark reversal pattern. Alternatively, if the buyers fail to keep the quotes below the 0.761 support line, the Australian dollar may fall down to the 0,752 level.

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the breakout of the 0,767resistance line will become the signal of the end of the downward short-term trend.

Recommendation: BUY 0,767 SL 0,7615 TP 0,78.

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10611