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Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by TraderSmith, Aug 15, 2017.

  1. TraderSmith


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    USDJPY pauses for breath near session highs

    A good session in Asia for the pair as N Korean concerns recede 15 Aug

    A few offers/resistance expected around 110.30 and 110.50 with larger into 110.80 are the next obstacles to clear if we are to progress further, but that will depend on how NK concerns play out from here as well as US retail sales data later.

    Expect demand now into 110.00 and 109.80

    Yesterday it was USDCHF leading the way as I highlighted but that pair has been slower to react to this latest risk-on move. Currently 0.9735 near session highs with EURCHF underpinned still at 1.1463 but CHFJPY climbing to session highs of 113.29.

    Offers/res on USDCHF between 0.9750-60 and EURCHF at 1.1480 where it's capped so far.

    Demand/support into 0.9720 then 0.9700. EURCHF demand at 1.1450 and 1.1420.
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  3. TraderSmith


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    British Pound Touches Highest Since might in Vote for Conservatives

    The pound reached the very best level in virtually seven months as traders stepped up bets on a win for the Conservatives in next week’s election.

    The currency pushed higher than $1.30 Wed as polls show the ruling Tories holding their lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s left Labor Party. Sterling conjointly advanced against all major peers as U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to the U.K. unpleated relatively swimmingly, defying speculation his presence may undermine Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

    Investors see a Conservative majority on Dec. 12 because the most market-positive outcome, because it would enable Johnson to push his Brexit deal through Parliament in time for next month’s point in time and move to an ensuing section of talks with the European Union. Trump’s visit had been seen as a risk for the Conservatives, who face queries over however the National Health Service would fare in any future trade manage the U.S.

    “With simply over every week to travel, sterling remains extremely influenced by the polls day-after-day, however, we may be seeing some relief that Trump didn't toss a bomb into the U.K. form of government throughout his remarks,” said Ned Rumpeltin, European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “A break higher than the October high at $1.3013 might open the door for a take a look at of $1.3185.”

    The pound gained 0.4% to $1.3042, the very best since might 10. It rallied 0.3% to 85.05 pence per euro.
  4. TraderSmith


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    U.S. dollar Falls on Mixed Trade Signals; Pound Rises

    The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, as mixed trade signals unbroken investors treed.

    Earlier within the day, China reiterated its expectations that tariffs ought to be upraised as a part of a phase-one deal, when Bloomberg rumored on a weekday that U.S. officers expect a deal before the most recent spherical of Yankee tariffs takes impact on Dec. 15.

    The news was an entire turnaround from comments from U.S. President Donald Trump earlier within the week. Trump said Tuesday that a deal might be created when the 2020 election, causing markets reeling.

    The U.S. dollar index, that measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, slipped 0.2% to 97.458 as of 10:31 AM ET (15:31 GMT). The dollar was lower against the safe-haven Japanese yen, with USD/JPY down zero.1% to 108.75.

    Elsewhere, the pound continued to rise because of confidence that the political party can win the final election on Dec. 12. GBP/USD gained zero.2% to 1.3129, whereas GBP/EUR rose zero.2% to 1.1853.

    EUR/USD was up zero.2% to 1.1092, despite a recent call German manufacturing plant orders earlier within the day that time to a different weak quarter for the monetary unit zone's largest economy.

    The dollar was edged slightly higher when information showed that Canada's deficit slightly narrowed in the Gregorian calendar month. USD/CAD fell zero.1% to 1.3184.
  5. TraderSmith


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    Dollar Surges Against euro on Stronger U.S. Jobs Report

    The U.S. dollar rallied on Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs gains last month reaffirmed beliefs that the economy remained on solid footing.

    The U.S. dollar index, that measures the buck against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.35% to 97.75.

    The U.S. created 266,000 jobs last month, topping economists' forecast of 186,000.

    The percentage unexpectedly born to 3.5% and wage growth slipped to 0.2% in November, under expectations of 0.3%.

    Following the stronger-than-expected jobs report, TD economists same the Federal Reserve System will sit well on the sidelines when cutting rates thrice this year.

    "As long as international risks don't intensify and hurt confidence domestically, the Yankee economy can stay in growth, supported by a healthy client," the firm adscititious.

    The euro, that was already stressed amid weaker German information, fell 0.45% against the buck to $1.105.

    USD/JPY fell 0.12% to Y108.62, whereas USD/CAD jumped 0.67% to C$1.326, with the latter coming back stressed following a weaker-than-expected Canadian jobs report.

    The plunge within the loonie comes amid reports that Bank of Canada governor writer Poloz is about to step down simply days earlier than the central bank's interest-rate call.

    GBP/USD slipped 0.23% to $1.312, jettisoning a number of its gains earlier on, once the combine hit seven-month highs on bets that the Conservative Party within the U.K., led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, would probably win a majority of the seats within the election.
  6. TraderSmith


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    Dollar bolstered by U.S. jobs data, markets look to trade talks

    The dollar control firm on Monday when knowledge showed surprise strength within the U.S. jobs market, however, the currency was restrained from moving higher by worries concerning a step-up within the U.S.-China trade war.

    The dollar index (=USD) stood virtually flat at 97.706 in mid-Asian trade, when rising 0.3% on a weekday. The euro listed at $1.10575 (EUR=), when touching a one-week low of $1.10395 on a weekday.

    The dollar modified hands at 108.58 yen. It had upraised to 108.92 yen on the U.S. job knowledge before losing momentum.

    U.S. nonfarm payrolls enhanced by 266,000 jobs last month, the largest the gain in ten months, whereas the pct ticked backtrack to 3.5%, its lowest level in nearly half a century.

    Those figures steered the Trump administration's 17-month trade war with China, that has plunged producing into recession, has not nonetheless spilled over to the broader U.S. economy.

    Still, investors suppose that might modification if trade tensions increase additional, particularly if Trump goes ahead with planned tariffs on some $156 billion price of products from China from Dec. 15.

    The market has been mostly engaged on the idea that those tariffs, that cowl many consumer products like cellphones and toys are going to be born or a minimum of delayed, provided that Washington and Beijing agreed in October to figure on a trade deal.

    "Markets are sensing that either side need to avoid a collapse of their negotiation, judgment from numerous news headlines," same Kazushige Kaida, chief of forex at State Street (NYSE: STT). "So the most situation is for the dollar/yen to check mid-109 yen levels."

    Top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow confirmed on the weekday that the Dec. 15 point in time to impose the new tariffs remains in situ, however, superimposed that President Donald Trump likes wherever trade talks with China are going.

    China's exports shrank for the fourth consecutive month in Nov, underscoring persistent pressures on makers from the Sino-U.S. trade war.

    Elsewhere, sterling listed at $ 1.3143, shortly from a seven-month high of $1.3166 assault Thursday.

    Against the euro, the pound hit a 2-1/2-year high of 84.10 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4).

    The currency has been bolstered by expectations that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party can win an outright majority within the future election on Thursday, thereby ending a decorated parliament and political palsy on Brexit.

    The Conservative Party extended its lead over the Labor Party to fourteen share points, up from nine share points per week agone, a poll by Survation for ITV's farewell, Britain showed on Monday.

    "Markets currently suppose the Tories can win. however, if they fail to win an outright majority, meaning basically nothing is totally different from currently and can be a reasonably massive shock for the market," same Minori Uchida, chief FX analyst at MUFG Bank.

    The dollar listed at C$1.3255 to the U.S. unit. The loonie shed over 0.5% on a weekday following knowledge showing the Canadian job market losing a surprise 71,200 web positions in Nov once economists had expected a gain of 10,000.
  7. TraderSmith


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    U.S. Dollar, euro close to Flat as Traders look central bank conferences

    The U.S. greenback and therefore the euro was very little modified on Mon in Asia as traders look central bank conferences due later on.

    The U.S. greenback Index was very little modified at ninety seven.685 by 11:57 PM ET (03:57 GMT). The FRS is predicted to stay rates steady on Wed on at the conclusion of its policy meeting. The Fed has cut rates 3 times this year to protect the U.S. economy from world retardation.

    After the last rate cut, in October, Fed Chair theologiser Powell aforementioned each the economy and policy were in a very "good place" and indicated that policymakers saw no need to chop rates more.

    "I assume they're feeling specialized straight away that they’ve determined to place this issue on pause,” aforementioned Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economic expert at blood cell Capital Markets in the big apple.

    On the info front, The yank client worth inflation figures are due on before the Fed meeting, that is expected to point out inflation running at a pair of, whereas retail sales numbers on Friday are forecast to point out the growth of 0.4%.

    The USD/CNY combine last listed at seven.0329, up 0.01%, once knowledge showed the country’s exports born 1.1% year-on-year in Nov, compared with the expected 1.0% enlargement.

    Meanwhile, the EUR/USD combine was conjointly close to flat at one.1055. Christine Lagarde can hold her initial meeting and press conference as European central bank (ECB) president on a weekday.

    The ECB isn't expected to create any vital amendment to financial policy. However, traders pay attention to Lagarde’s wordings for her thoughts on the financial policy outlook, the economy, and a future strategy review.

    The GBP/USD combine inched up 0.1% to 1.3143 as traders continued to look a U.K. election on which will confirm the course of Brexit.

    The USD/JPY combine was unchanged at 108.57.

    The AUD/USD combine and therefore the NZD/USD pair each slipped 0.1%.
  8. TraderSmith


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    U.S. dollar Unmoved sooner than Fed conferences, Looming Tariff deadline

    The U.S. dollar was unmoved on weekday in Asia before central bank conferences and a looming tariff point later in the week.

    The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of different currencies was unchanged at 97.610 by 12:30 AM ET (04:30 GMT).

    On the radiolocation in the week are policy conferences at the U.S. Federal Reserve and also the European financial institution. whereas the 2 central banks aren't expect to announce any vital changes to their policies, traders can pay attention to clues on whether or not additional easing is future next year.

    On the Sino-U.S. trade front, investors hoped-for to visualize whether or not Washington can act with a planned Dec. fifteen tariff hike on Chinese product.

    Bloomberg according to long that U.S. Agriculture Secretary boy Perdue aforementioned Washington is unlikely to impose additional tariffs on Chinese exports on Dec. 15.

    “We have a point bobbing up on the Dec. fifteen for an additional share of tariffs, I don't believe those are enforced and that i assume we have a tendency to might even see some backing away,” Perdue aforementioned, consistent with Bloomberg.

    The EUR/USD combine was close to flat at 1.1065, whereas the GBP/USD combine inched up 0.1% to 1.3151.

    The AUD/USD combine and also the NZD/USD pair each gained 0.2%.

    The USD/JPY combine edged up 0.1% to 108.62.

    The USD/CNY combine was very little modified at 7.0382, very little wedged by information nowadays that showed China’s producer indicant was down 1.4% year-on-year, falling for the fifth month in an exceeding row. The drop compared with the 1.5% expected decline and also the 1.6% fall.

    Meanwhile, the patron indicant for Nov jumped 4.5% year-on-year, as food costs skyrocketed 19.1% amid a pestilence of African swine fever.