No deviation at all so no trades hit.
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Forex Analysis
- Thread starter JamesThatcher
- Start date
To manage risk reward ratio, you also need good knowledge. The ability to find a good trade is important. You have to find out what you are best at. How many entries are right and wrong out of 10. Sometimes 1:1 risk reward can be good if your winning ratio is more than 50%. It's actually a trail and error process. You have to find what's best for you.
Last week I set up for four trades with no deviations on three of those. I triggered on Australian employment data, but other factors overshadowed this, and the outcome wasn't as expected. Check out my previous post for a full explanation. Still, I'll draw a line and move on. Remember to take each trade on its own merit. When a trade doesn't work out, don't let it rule your head.
This week we've got some exciting reports coming out.
This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.
22/06/2021 13:00:00 Hungarian Interest Rate
See the reports history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb[…]hcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
23/06/2021 08:30:00 German Flash Manufacturing PMI
See the reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=DE;nn=German Composite PMI
23/06/2021 13:30:00 Czech CNB Repo Rate
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CZ;nn=Interest Rate Decision
23/06/2021 14:45:00 USA Markt Manu PMI
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Manufacturing PMI
23/06/2021 15:30:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories
24/06/2021 20:00:00 Mexican interest Rate
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=MX;nn=Interest Rate Decision
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
This week we've got some exciting reports coming out.
This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.
22/06/2021 13:00:00 Hungarian Interest Rate
See the reports history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb[…]hcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
23/06/2021 08:30:00 German Flash Manufacturing PMI
See the reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=DE;nn=German Composite PMI
23/06/2021 13:30:00 Czech CNB Repo Rate
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CZ;nn=Interest Rate Decision
23/06/2021 14:45:00 USA Markt Manu PMI
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Manufacturing PMI
23/06/2021 15:30:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories
24/06/2021 20:00:00 Mexican interest Rate
See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=MX;nn=Interest Rate Decision
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
Last edited:
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 0.9
Today's trade plan
Today we have a wide range of estimates as the Hungarian Central bank is expected to start hiking rates, but how much is unclear. Today we have the following forecast ranges.
High Forecast = 1.1
Low Forecast = 0.6
Average Forecast = 0.88
I will use a forecast of = 0.9 (Previous intetest rate = 0.6)
If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 0.6%, I will class this as a -0.3% deviation from the forecast of 0.9% and will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move.
If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.1% or more. I will class this as a +0.2% deviation from the forecast of 0.9%, and I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0
HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 0.9
Today's trade plan
Today we have a wide range of estimates as the Hungarian Central bank is expected to start hiking rates, but how much is unclear. Today we have the following forecast ranges.
High Forecast = 1.1
Low Forecast = 0.6
Average Forecast = 0.88
I will use a forecast of = 0.9 (Previous intetest rate = 0.6)
If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 0.6%, I will class this as a -0.3% deviation from the forecast of 0.9% and will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move.
If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.1% or more. I will class this as a +0.2% deviation from the forecast of 0.9%, and I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Last edited:
What does the data mean to the market?
PMI Manufacturing data is a survey of a wide range number of private sector business leaders, the results of the survey are released towards the end of the month and therefore become a good forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. The state of the private sector has to knock on effect on employment, purchasing and growth of the economy. Anything above 50 is considered growth/positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is considered contraction/negative for the value of the currency.
Theres also services PMI at the samne time which is slightly less important to the German economy then manufactoring but I would not like this to conflict with Manufactoring to take a trade.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 21 2021 Negative deviations from manufacturing and composite pushed EURUSD down 14 pips, even with a mall conflict from services.
Check out the price action here:
March 24 2021 Massive deviations on all four lines created a small but well-formed 13 pips on EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
PMI - Composite (M/M) - P 57.6
PMI - Manufacturing (M/M) - P 63
PMI - Services (M/M) - P 55.7
Today's trade plan
If Manufacturing deviates by 3.0 with both composite and services deviating by 1.0 in the same direction, we should be assured of a good move.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
PMI Manufacturing data is a survey of a wide range number of private sector business leaders, the results of the survey are released towards the end of the month and therefore become a good forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. The state of the private sector has to knock on effect on employment, purchasing and growth of the economy. Anything above 50 is considered growth/positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is considered contraction/negative for the value of the currency.
Theres also services PMI at the samne time which is slightly less important to the German economy then manufactoring but I would not like this to conflict with Manufactoring to take a trade.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 21 2021 Negative deviations from manufacturing and composite pushed EURUSD down 14 pips, even with a mall conflict from services.
Check out the price action here:
DE German Composite PMI 2021-05-21 07:30:00.0
DE German Composite PMI 2021-05-21 07:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
March 24 2021 Massive deviations on all four lines created a small but well-formed 13 pips on EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
DE German Composite PMI 2021-03-24 08:30:00.0
DE German Composite PMI 2021-03-24 08:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
PMI - Composite (M/M) - P 57.6
PMI - Manufacturing (M/M) - P 63
PMI - Services (M/M) - P 55.7
Today's trade plan
If Manufacturing deviates by 3.0 with both composite and services deviating by 1.0 in the same direction, we should be assured of a good move.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
Manufacturing PMI data is a survey of a wide range of private sector business purchasing managers. The data is an excellent forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. Purchasing managers affect most areas of the economy like employment, production, and general growth.
Anything above 50 is considered growth and would be positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is regarded as a contraction and would be negative for the value of the currency.
There are two releases
of this report Flash and Final. Flash is reported first form source and therefore has the most impact.
We also have services PMI simultaneously, and both need to deviate in the same direction to take a trade.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 21 2021 Strong numbers from both Manufacturing and Services created a nice move that didnt suffer much of a retrace. Ideal for my trading style.
Check out the price action here:
January 22 2021 Huge deviations on both lines did not create a good move, however this wasn't really down to the data failing, It was overshadowed by other news at the time regarding Covid lock downs creating a "Risk Off" environment.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
Markit Manuf PMI - P 61.5
Markit Svcs PMI - P 70
Today's trade plan
Today, if we see both lines deviate together by at least 3.0, we can expect the US Dollar to move slowly and hopefully offer a few minutes of continuation as the data is digested. This won't create a huge spike, but it does hold some profit potential.
Tradable pairs
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Manufacturing PMI data is a survey of a wide range of private sector business purchasing managers. The data is an excellent forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. Purchasing managers affect most areas of the economy like employment, production, and general growth.
Anything above 50 is considered growth and would be positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is regarded as a contraction and would be negative for the value of the currency.
There are two releases
of this report Flash and Final. Flash is reported first form source and therefore has the most impact.
We also have services PMI simultaneously, and both need to deviate in the same direction to take a trade.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 21 2021 Strong numbers from both Manufacturing and Services created a nice move that didnt suffer much of a retrace. Ideal for my trading style.
Check out the price action here:
US Manufacturing PMI 2021-05-21 13:45:00.0
US Manufacturing PMI 2021-05-21 13:45:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
January 22 2021 Huge deviations on both lines did not create a good move, however this wasn't really down to the data failing, It was overshadowed by other news at the time regarding Covid lock downs creating a "Risk Off" environment.
Check out the price action here:
US Manufacturing PMI 2021-01-22 14:45:00.0
US Manufacturing PMI 2021-01-22 14:45:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
Markit Manuf PMI - P 61.5
Markit Svcs PMI - P 70
Today's trade plan
Today, if we see both lines deviate together by at least 3.0, we can expect the US Dollar to move slowly and hopefully offer a few minutes of continuation as the data is digested. This won't create a huge spike, but it does hold some profit potential.
Tradable pairs
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
30 June 2021 13:15 GMT US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
30 June 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories
01 July 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Interest rate
View the report history here
calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com
01 July 2021 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI
View the report history here
calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com
02 July 2021 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls
I'm most looking forward to NFP; two months ago, I had a great trade out of this.
For those that missed it, here's a reminder.
jamesthatchersnewstradinganalysis.quora.com
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my focus. If new opportunities come up, I'll post any trade plans as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
30 June 2021 13:15 GMT US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
30 June 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories
01 July 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Interest rate
View the report history here
Galaxy Economic Calendar
calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com
01 July 2021 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI
View the report history here
Galaxy Economic Calendar
calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com
02 July 2021 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls
I'm most looking forward to NFP; two months ago, I had a great trade out of this.
For those that missed it, here's a reminder.
United States Non-Farm Employment Change May 7 2021
What does the data mean to the market? The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be...
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my focus. If new opportunities come up, I'll post any trade plans as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it.
Check out the price action here:
June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.
Check out the price action here:
June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3850
2) API Actual Crude = -8200
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -900
4) API Actual Gasoline = +2400
Therefore I will use -6000 for OIL and +500 for Gasoline
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-06-23 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-06-23 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-06-09 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-06-09 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-06-03 15:00:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-06-03 15:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3850
2) API Actual Crude = -8200
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -900
4) API Actual Gasoline = +2400
Therefore I will use -6000 for OIL and +500 for Gasoline
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases
01/09/2021 15:30:00 USDOIL Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
03/09/2021 13:30:00 USDJPY Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
01/09/2021 15:30:00 USDOIL Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
03/09/2021 13:30:00 USDJPY Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 725
Unemployment Rate 5.2
Today's trade plan
This report is well in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.
I'll be looking for a 75k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings.
We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0
US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0
US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!
Check out the price action here:
US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-05-07 12:30:00.0
US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-05-07 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 725
Unemployment Rate 5.2
Today's trade plan
This report is well in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.
I'll be looking for a 75k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings.
We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases: -
10th September 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change
See the report history and previous charts here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw
10th September 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change
See the report history and previous charts here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.
Check out the price action here:
March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
Empl Chg - Full Time 0
Employment Change 66.8
Unemployment Rate 7.3
Today's trade plan
It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.
If we see a negative deviation of 60k or a positive deviation of 80k in from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction on CAD pairs.
I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.
Check out the price action here:
CA Employment Change 2021-04-09 12:30:00.0
CA Employment Change 2021-04-09 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.
Check out the price action here:
CA Employment Change 2021-03-12 13:30:00.0
CA Employment Change 2021-03-12 13:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
Empl Chg - Full Time 0
Employment Change 66.8
Unemployment Rate 7.3
Today's trade plan
It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.
If we see a negative deviation of 60k or a positive deviation of 80k in from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction on CAD pairs.
I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
14 September 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m
See the report history here: -
15 September 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here: -
15 September 2021 23:45 GMT New Zealand GDP q/q
See the report history here: -
16 September 2021 02:30 GMT Australia Employment Change
See the report history here: -
14 September 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m
See the report history here: -
15 September 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here: -
15 September 2021 23:45 GMT New Zealand GDP q/q
See the report history here: -
16 September 2021 02:30 GMT Australia Employment Change
See the report history here: -
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.2
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 5.3
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.3%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0
US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0
US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0
US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.2
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 5.3
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.3%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ..
July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx
June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTE2JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.1
CPI (Y/Y) 3.9
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.7
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 3.1
Today's trade plan
Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.
Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.
**IMPORTANT** On this trade we hope and expect to see a slow move that happens over the first 25-45 seconds. When data hits, the market shouldn't move more than 5 pips giving you a chance to jump in. I would suggest that you would want to have your trade live within the first 5 seconds and ride the move for the next 20 seconds or so. Once you're a few pips in profit, set your stop loss to break even, to protect your equity. If things go to plan, then I would hope for around 20 pips on USDCAD in total before the move stalls.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ..
July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS03LTI4JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx
June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...yMS02LTE2JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.1
CPI (Y/Y) 3.9
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.7
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 3.1
Today's trade plan
Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.
Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.
**IMPORTANT** On this trade we hope and expect to see a slow move that happens over the first 25-45 seconds. When data hits, the market shouldn't move more than 5 pips giving you a chance to jump in. I would suggest that you would want to have your trade live within the first 5 seconds and ride the move for the next 20 seconds or so. Once you're a few pips in profit, set your stop loss to break even, to protect your equity. If things go to plan, then I would hope for around 20 pips on USDCAD in total before the move stalls.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2900
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3574 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5400
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2900 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-25 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-25 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-18 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-18 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2900
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3574 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5400
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2900 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
In the week ahead I'll be looking closely at the following releases
22nd Sept 2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
23rd Sept 2021 12:00 Turkish Interest Rate
See the report history here: -https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwTGVuZGluZyUyMFJhdGU
23rd Sept 2021 14:00 South African Interest Rate
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
22nd Sept 2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
23rd Sept 2021 12:00 Turkish Interest Rate
See the report history here: -https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwTGVuZGluZyUyMFJhdGU
23rd Sept 2021 14:00 South African Interest Rate
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4500
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2450 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -6100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1472 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -0400
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-25 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-25 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-18 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-18 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4500
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2450 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -6100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1472 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -0400
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
October 22 2020 Today we saw a -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 19
Today's trade plan
22 out of 23 economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%
1 Says it'll move to 18.5%. It'll be a shock if its anything less than 19%
If we get a change of 0.5 in either direction, I'll take a trade.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0
TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0
TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
October 22 2020 Today we saw a -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.
Check out the price action here:
TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-10-22 11:00:00.0
TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-10-22 11:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 19
Today's trade plan
22 out of 23 economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%
1 Says it'll move to 18.5%. It'll be a shock if its anything less than 19%
If we get a change of 0.5 in either direction, I'll take a trade.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Attachments
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