Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing towards the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the SMA200, and just below the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. Both the RSI and Composite have formed a Bullish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 5050.0 (local lows), 5010.0 (November 2015 highs), 4972.0 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 5128.0 (local highs), 5167.0 (April gap), 5180.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is likely to retest its medium-term descending trendline.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 5128.0 with targets at 5167.0, 5180.0 and stop-loss at 5107.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 5050.0 with targets at 5010.0, 4972.0 and stop-loss at 5075.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: price consolidates

Current trend

Today the price of WTI is trading near the level of 47.60, to where it corrected after the publication of the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

The report demonstrated another decline in reserves though smaller than in the previous two weeks (only for 3.6 million barrels). The instrument is not able to begin its growth even though there are supply disruptions from the Sharara oil field in Libya and a decision of one of the world’s largest miners BHP Billiton to sell its US shale assets due to their underperformance. Markets have paused as investors are waiting for the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change tonight that could also show a smaller decline in reserves, which might still pressure the instrument.

Support and resistance

The price fell below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and could continue falling towards 47.10 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and 46.15 (50% correction). Crucial for Bulls seems to be the level of 47.80 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), a breakout of which would lead to a growth towards a cluster of 23.6% corrections (48.40 and 49.00). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal representing an uncertainty of the market before the news release. The Stochastic is directed down, Bollinger bands up while MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are insignificant.

Support levels: 47.10, 46.15, 45.20.
Resistance levels: 47.80, 48.40, 49.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 47.10 with the target at 46.15 and stop-loss at 47.50.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 47.80 with targets at 48.40, 49.00 and stop-loss at 47.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair was under the pressure of US New Home Sales statistics fall. In addition, the PMI Markit decreased to 52.5 basis points, which is by 0.8 points lower than expected. Today in Japan Foreign bond investment data were published. The volume of investments into debt obligations decreased, which let USD restore part of yesterday’s loss.

Today 3-day Economic Policy Symposium starts in Jackson Hole. Tomorrow Janet Yellen speech is expected. Her commentaries upon inflation, terms and volumes of balance-sheet reduction of the US regulator will greatly affect the dynamics of the price in the short term. Today the Initial Jobless Claims publication is worth traders’ attention. The expected growth of index will let the USD/JPY pair fall further.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair began to grow from the support level of 108.85. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards; the price range is stable, which reflects the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing, keeping a strong signal to open short positions. Stochastic doesn’t give clear signals to enter the market.

Support levels: 108.85, 108.60, 108.20.
Resistance levels: 109.40, 109.90, 110.35, 111.10.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 109.40 with the target around 110.30 and stop loss at 109.10. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 109.00 with the target around 108.60, 108.40 and stop loss at 109.20. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During yesterday’s trading session gold price insignificantly fell and reached the level of 1291.93 (–0.21%) due to slight strengthening of the USD, which reacted to the lack of news upon the conflict between USA and North Korea.

At the moment gold is trading around the key level of 1300 USD per troy ounce. It reached the level of 1292.74 (+0.06% against the day before). Investors are focused on today’s Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen speeches at the summit in Jackson Hole, where the heads of central banks can comment upon further actions within the monetary policy. Donald Trump’s Administration problems also prevent gold from falling in the nearest future.

Today traders should pay attention to US Durable Goods Orders publication at 14:30 (GMT+2), which can affect the US currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is trading above the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Bands are pointed upwards, which reflects the upward trend. However, CCI is reaching the zero line, and after is crosses it, the clear sell signal will be received. RSI is in the neutral zone, the indicator’s line is slightly reversing upwards, which reflects the upward trend.

Support levels: 1282.83, 1271.83, 1264.64.
Resistance levels: 1292.45, 1300.39.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the support level of 1282.83 with the targets at 1271.83 and 1264.67 and stop loss at 1287.02.
Long positions will become relevant after the breakout of the level of 1292.45 with the target at 1300.39 and stop loss at 1284.29.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex XAG/USD: silver keeps rising

Current dynamics

Silver is moderately growing during the morning session on August 28th, trading in close proximity to local highs, updated on August 18th. The instrument was supported by weak US currency, which was under pressure from disappointing results of the speech of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole.
Recall that investors were waiting for comments on the prospects for monetary policy. In particular, traders were interested in the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet, which the regulator representatives themselves talked about so much. Instead, Yellen confined herself to general issues on financial stability and regulation in the banking sector.

On Monday, the only published indicators would be the ones of business activity in the industrial sphere of the Dallas Fed in August. Against this background, we can expect that the pair will maintain its upward mood and come close to the previous local highs.

Support and resistance

The indicator "Bollinger bands" on the daily chart is slightly growing, and can still turn sideways. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the multidirectional nature of trading in recent days.
The MACD indicator keeps a weak buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line).

Oscillator Stochastic is growing, approaching the border of the overbought area.
Resistance levels: 17.16 (local maximum), 17.27 (maximum of August 18), 17.38.
Support levels: 17.00, 16.89, 16.73 (minimum of August 25), 16.62, 16.48.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on a breakdown of level 17.16, provided that the technical indicators do not contradict the development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit – 17.38. Stop loss is at 17.00. Term of realization: 2 days.
If the level of 17.16 turns out to be an insurmountable obstacle for the bulls, it is worth considering the possibility of sales with a target in the area of 16.73. Stop loss – 17.30-17.80. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure

Current trend

US currency has been under pressure against the Japanese yen during the morning session on August 29 and has already updated local minimums since mid-April. The growth of "bearish" activities in the instrument was explained by yet another growth of demand for safe haven assets after the announcement about the launch of a missile from North Korea directed at Japan.

By now USD managed to partially regain its positions. Among other factors, corrective growth was supported by uncertain data from Japan. For example, household expenses in July dropped unexpectedly by 0.2% YoY after growth by 2.3% in the previous month. Analysts predicted growth by 0.7% YoY.
On Wednesday the market will be waiting for the release of information on Japanese retail sales in July as well as specified data on US GDP in Q2 2017.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart continue to gradually decrease. The price range is widening reacting to increased activity in the course of the morning session on August 29. MACD is restoring the "bearish" signal (being located below the signal line) after a brief attempt to grow. Stochastic is showing similar dynamics having reversed downwards in the center of its area.
Resistance levels: 109.11, 109.41, 109.82, 110.23.
Support levels: 108.58, 108.32, 108.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a reversal around the level of 108.32 with targets at 109.11, 109.41 and stop-loss at 108.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

The breakdown of the level of 108.32 may serve as a signal to the continuation of sales with target at 108.00 and stop-loss at 108.50. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in the flat


Current trend

Investors failed to determine the direction of trading in the pair USD/CAD on Tuesday, August 29, and the instrument closed around zero and showed active, but mixed dynamics of trading during the day.

Canadian dollar showed weak reaction to the Tuesday release of Canadian macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the index of prices for raw materials dropped by 0.6% MoM after a fall by 3.6% last month. Manufacturing prices index dropped by 1.5% in July on a monthly bas after a fall by 1.1% in June. The real dynamics of the indicator was much worse than expected.

On Wednesday, August 30, investors will focus their attention on macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Thus, the publication of detailed assessment of the US GDP in Q2 2017 is expected at 15:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is slightly narrowing in the lower part. MACD histogram is slightly growing keeping a weak buy signal (and remaining above the signal line).
Stochastic is showing slightly more stable dynamics and is located in the middle of its area.

Resistance levels: 1.2548, 1.2597, 1.2617, 1.2654, 1.2689.
Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2464, 1.2439, 1.2412.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2500 with targets at 1.2548 or 1.2597 and stop-loss at 1.2464. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 1.2500 may be a signal to corrective sales with target around 1.2439 and stop-loss at 1.2548. The period of implementation is 2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: the correction can end

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair was correcting and now has reached the level of 1.1865.
The US currency growth is due to relative reduction of tense on the Korean peninsula and to positive economic data publication. The new North Korea missile launch didn’t lead to military USA response, moreover, Secretary of Defense James Mattis noted that the diplomatic possibilities of the conflict resolution are not exhausted, which resulted in outflow of investors from shelter assets. In addition, the USD was supported by preliminary USA GDP data (in the second quarter its growth exceeded the expectations and reached the level of 0.3%) and August ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data (instead of expected fall the indicator grew from 201K to 237K).

At the moment the falling of the pair slowed, and it’s trading around 1.1890–1.1870. Investors are waiting for the EU Consumer Price Index publication, which is very important before the ECB meeting next week. The index is expected to grow from 1.3% to 1.4%, which can lead to the reversal of the price and the beginning of the new growth of EUR.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is tending to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 1.1800, and after breakdown can go lower, to the area of 1.1720 (Murray ) and 1.1600 (Murray , Fibonacci correction 23.6%). The downward movement will develop in case of negative reaction of the market to the EU inflation data. The indicators confirm the possibility: Stochastic has reversed downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone.

The upward trend will develop after the price is set above the level of 1.1960 (Murray ). In this case it can grow to the area of 1.2085 (Murray ) and 1.2200 (Murray ).

Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1600.
Resistance levels: 1.1960, 1.2085, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1840 with the targets at 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1600 and stop loss at 1.1880.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1960 or after the reversal near the level of 1.1800 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.2200 and stop loss 1.1920 and 1.1770.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar under pressure

Current trend

NZD reduced considerably against the US currency during trading on Thursday, August 31, marking a new local minimum since June 6. However, with the release of uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the USA the investor's sentiment has changed, and the instrument managed to regain the majority of lost positions by the closing of the daily session.

The reason for negative NZD dynamics was weak statistics from New Zealand. Namely, business optimism index by RBNZ dropped from 19.4 to 18.3 points in August. During the morning session on September 1 the pair received moderate support from Chinese data. Manufacturing PMI Caixin grew from 51.1 to 51.6 points in August against the forecast of reduction to 50.9 points. Other activities remain low as the market is waiting for the US labor market report for August.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate decrease. The price range is moderately widening. MACD still preserves a stable downward trend. Stochastic is reducing but is located close to the border with the oversold area.
Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7222, 0.7257, 0.7297, 0.7335.
Support levels: 0.7160, 0.7130, 0.7101.

Trading tips

A reversal near the level of 0.7190 with further breakdown of 0.7160 may indicate the continuation of sales. In this case the target of the "bears" may be located around 0.7100. The period of implementation is 2 days.

Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7190 with targets at 0.7257 or 0.7297 and stop-loss at 0.7130. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing minor growth

Current trend

AUD is growing during the morning session on September 4 after the update of a local maximum dated back to August 30 in the end of the previous week. The instrument is supported by the weakness of the US currency that is experiencing pressure again due to the tightening of the geopolitical situation around North Korea.
Macroeconomic statistics released in Australia on Monday has mixed influence on the pair. TD Securities inflation data in August showed growth by 0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY which practically meets the data for the previous period. The indicator of income from main activities of companies in Q2 2017 dropped by 4.5% in quarterly terms after earlier growth by 6.0%. Investors expected it to dectease by 4.0% on the quarterly basis.

Trading activity on Monday will be reduced as the US markets will be closed on Monday due to the Labor Day. Investors will focus on the release of RBA minutes on Tuesday, September 5, at 06:30 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate slight growth. The price range remains quite unchanged and quite limited. MACD histogram is slightly growing keeping a weak buy signal (and remaining above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, approaching the border of the overbought zone once again.
Resistance levels: 0.7978, 0.7994, 0.8012, 0.8041.
Support levels: 0.7949, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the outbreak of the levels 0.7978 or 0.7994 with targets at 0.8040, 0.8060 and top-loss at 0.7950. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Alternatively, short positions may be opened after breaking down the level of 0.7949 with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.7978. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for comments from FOMC members

Current trend

The pair started the week with growth to 1.1920 after North Korea carried out nuclear missiles testing, and the USA replied with tough rhetoric. However, by now the price has corrected to 1.1880 (middle line of Bollinger Bands at H4).

Today the most important part of the releases is traditional financial statistics. Services PMIs of Germany and Eurozone for August failed to show material changes or cause considerable market reaction. The indicator for Germany grew from 53.4 to 53.5 points, and for Eurozone reduced from 54.9 to 54.7 points. The statistics on the volume of retail sales in Eurozone was mixed.

In the USA attention should be paid to statements by the Fed's members Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari that are especially important in view of the upcoming September meeting of the Fed.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair is trading within the upper Bollinger Band between 1.1840 (Murrey level ) and 1.1962 (Murrey level ) and may continue moving in it as the investors are not likely to take risks before the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday. In case of breakdown of the level of 1.1840 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands the fall may continue to 1.1720 (Murrey level ) and 1.1660 (lower line of Bollinger Bands). Otherwise the price may go up to the upper border of the range at 1.1962and in case of its breakout go further to 1.2085 (Murrey level ). Indicator show decrease: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, 1.1660.
Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2085, 1.2200.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions should be opened below the level of 1.1840 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.1720, 1.1660 and stop-loss at 1.1880.
Long positions should be opened above 1.1900 or in case of reversal at 1.1840 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2085 and stop-loss at 1.1870 and 1.1800.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

New Zealand dollar grew against USD during trading on Tuesday supported by the growth of prices for dairy products by 0.3% (the highest in the last three months) and reduced returns on US state bonds. US markets opened after a holiday, and a number of important macroeconomic releases is planned for the current week. Investors are concerned that the concequences of Harvey storm may lead to the fall of economic indicators in the short term whic may influence the Fed's decision on the possible increase of interest rates this year. Potential nuclear crisis in North Korea also has a negative impact on the rate of the US currency.
Today traders have to pay special attention to the release of data on Markit PMI changes and services PMI by ISM.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7185, 0.7160, 0.7130.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7280, 0.7300, 0.7330.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7260 with target at 0.7330 and stop-loss at 0.7220.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7200 with targets at 0.7150 and stop-loss at 0.7230.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex XAU/USD: gold is updating record-setting maximums

Current trend

Gold prices have updated 1-year record-setting maximums after the release of disappointing data on the dynamics of jobless claims in the USA and after ECB kept the interest rate on the previous level.
A report published yesterday showed the growth of initial jobless claims from 235K to 298K, while the analysts expected them to grow only to 241K. The number of repeated claims reduced more than expected: from 1.945 mln to 1.940 mln against the outlook of growth to 1.950 mln.
ECB press conference was neutral. The head of the regulator Mario Draghi pointed out that economic growth forecasts in the region remained unchanged and inflation expectations had not changed as well.


Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate stable increase. The price range is actively widening. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reached maximum values and reversed horizontally.
Resistance levels: 1355.48, 1366.99, 1374.93.
Support levels: 1350.00, 1343.98, 1330.60, 1325.65.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1355.48 with target at 1374.93 and stop-loss at 1340.00. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the levels of 1350.00, 1343.98 with targets at 1316.03 and stop-loss at 1365.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Last Friday the price of Brent oil reduced after the announcement of intermediary results of assessment of the damage caused by Harvey storm. The launch of operation of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico reduced the investors' concerns about a serious crisis in the US oil industry. The market reacted to this news by fixing profits in long positions which put additional pressure on the trading instrument. Moreover, according to EAI information, weekly reserves of crude oil in the USA increased by 4.6 mln barrels. At the same time gas prices have dropped, as the majority of the Americans decided to limit the use of personal cars due to Irma storm.

No important macroeconomic data able to have considerably impact on the dynamics of the trading instrument are due today. Tomorrow attention should be paid to the release of the API report on oil stocks in the USA.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is trading in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed to the side, and the price range is widening, indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in positive zone, keeping the signal for the opening of long positions. Stochastic has left the overbought zone and formed a strong sell signal.

Support levels: 50.65, 51.65, 52.50, 53.40.
Resistance levels: 54.40, 55.35, 56.30.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 54.80, 55.30 and stop-loss at 53.20. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 53.35 with targets at 52.45 and stop-loss at 53.60. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex USD/JPY: calmness in North Korea caused the growth of the pair

Current trend

The pair started the week with considerable growth connected with the release of tension in the Korean Peninsula.

Investors waited for new missile tests on September 9, but Pyohgyang refused from provocative actions. On the other hand, on Monday the UN Security Council imposed a number of new sanctions on North Korea except for the most notable embargo on oil supply. This was also considered a positive action by the market. As a result, risk appetites returned to the market and by now let the pair reach the level of 109.70. Recent data on machine building orders (the volume of which reduced by 7.5% YoY in July) also put pressure on yen.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has increased above the gathering of Fibo correction at 109.00 and is aiming at 110.00 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level [6/8]) to the area of the upper border of the downward channel. Breaking through this level will open a way for growth to 110.85 (Fibo correction 50.0%, Murrey level [8/8]). In case of reversal of the price around the level of 110.00 possible targets of the "bears" will be the levels of 109.00 (gathering of Fibo corrections), 108.60 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [2/8]) and 107.80 (Murrey level [0/8]). Technical indicators generally show growth but do not exclude the beginning of correction. Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, and MACD histogram grows in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the overbought area but may leave it forming a sell signal.

Support levels: 109.00, 108.60, 108.20, 107.80.
Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.55, 110.85.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 110.00, 110.55, 110.85 and stop-loss at 109.40.
Short positions should be opened below the level of 109.00 or in case of reversal near 110.00 with targets at 108.60, 108.20, 107.80 and stop-loss at 109.40 and 110.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex XAG/USD: silver dynamics is mixed

Current trend

During trading session on Tuesday, September, 12, silver prices insignificantly grew and stepped off the local minimum since the beginning of the month. The instrument is trying to enter the upward correction after downward gap opening on Monday due to the fall of the market demand on shelter assets after DPRK refused to test missiles last weekend, which helped to release the tense upon the North Korea situation.
On Wednesday, September, 13, the investors are waiting for Producer Price Index publication at 14:30 (GMT+2) in the USA. The MoM value is expected to grow by 0.3% MoM after the fall by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. In addition, the Monthly Budget Statement will be published at 20:00 (GMT+2) in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are steady growing. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of the controversial trade dynamic this week. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping weakening sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to wait until the signal is clear, as current readings are uninformative.

Stochastic has reached the border of the oversold area and reversed into flat, reacting to the attempt of correctional growth in the beginning of the week. It’s better to wait until the situation is clear and the indicator reverses fully.
Resistance levels: 17.87, 18.00, 18.17.
Support levels: 17.66, 17.53, 17.38, 17.27, 17.16.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the levels of 17.87 or 18.00. Take profit is 18.20–18.30. Stop loss is 17.80–17.70. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The alternative is the return of strong “bearish” trend after the breakdown of the level of 17.66. In this case it’s better to open short positions with the target around 17.30. Stop loss is 17.90. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex XAU/USD: gold price is going down

Current trend

During the trading session on Wednesday, September, 13, gold prices significantly went down and renewed the lows since the beginning of the month due to the preliminary information that Trumps’ Administration is ready to make public the awaited tax reform. According to unconfirmed reports, the details of the new plan can be disclosed next week.
During the morning session in September, 14, the “bearish” moods prevail. The instrument is pressed by the poor Chinese macroeconomical statistics: Industrial Production in China slowed from +6.4% YoY to +6.0% YoY in August, while the analysts expected the fastening to +6.6% YoY. The growth of Retail Sales fell from +10.4% YoY to +10.1% YoY, which is also worse than expected value of +10.5% YoY.
On Thursday the investors are waiting for the August consumer inflation data in the USA. The traders hope that the statistics will clear the perspectives of further monetary policy tightening.


Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD is going down, keeping strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current short positions, but wait to the clear signals to appear before opening new ones.
Stochastic has reached the limit in the oversold area and reversed into flat. The readings of the indicators reflect the correctional growth appearance in the end of the week. It’s better to close profitable short positions.
Resistance levels: 1325.65, 1334.32, 1343.98, 1350.00, 1357.15.
Support levels: 1316.03, 1307.75, 1300.44, 1291.71.


Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal around 1316.03. Take profit is 1334.32 or 1343.98. Stop loss is 1312.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Steady breakdown 1316.03 can be a signal to open short positions with the target around 1300.00. Stop loss is 1328.50. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex AUD/USD: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

Current trend

Australian dollar moderately grew against USD as a result of trading on Thursday, September 14, moving away from local minimums since September 5. The reason for the growth of AUD was positive data on the Australian labor market in August. The level of employment in August grew by 54.2K workplaces against 29.2K last month. Analysts expected to see a decrease to 15.0K.

More serious growth was prevented by quite stable US currency that receive support from strong consumer inflation data on Thursday. In August CPI grew by 1.9% YoY after growth by 1.7% in July. Experts expected growth to make up 1.8% YoY.

On Friday, September 15, investors expected the release of the data on retail sales and industrial output in the USA at 14:30 and 15:00 (GMT+2) respectively. If this block of data also appears to be better than expected, USD may finish the week with growth.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal (being located under the signal line). Stochastic has approached the border of the oversold area and reversed horizontally reacting to growth attempts on Thursday.
Resistance levels: 0.7994, 0.8015, 0.8042, 0.8064, 0.8080.
Support levels: 0.7978, 0.7954, 0.7917, 0.7889, 0.7865.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.8015 with target at 0.8080, 0.8100 and stop-loss at 0.7970. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
A breakdown of the level of 0.7978 or 0.7954 may be a signal for further sales with target at 0.7889 and stop-loss at 0.8020. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday after the release of negative data on retail sales (-0.2%) and industrial output volume (-0.9%) in the USA the price of the pair rose to 1.1985 but then was corrected and is currently trading near the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1940. Currently investors are cautious waiting for the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Therefore the pair may remain within the range of 1.1920-1.1980 in the near future.

In view of the upcoming meeting of the Fed European statistics is considered less important. Here attention should be paid to the release of final August inflation data from Eurozone. The values of CPI and its basic variant are still far from target levels and make up 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Business sentiment index by ZEW is due tomorrow. The indicator may grow from 10,0 to 12.5 points for Germany and from 29.3 to 32.4 points for Eurozone. In this case the price will continue to grow to the upper border of the range.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has tested the middle line of Bollinger Bands around the level of 1.1920 and may soon reach 1.1980. However, serious growth to the levels of 1.2025 and 1.2090 may happen only after the price consolidates above 1.1980. Breaking down the level of 1.1920 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) will open the way for further decrease to the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1855 and further to 1.1800. Technical indicators show growth: MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and to form a buy signal, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.
Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1855, 1.1800.
Resistance levels: 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2090.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1980, 1.2025 and stop-loss at 1.1920.1.1920.
Short position may be opened in case the price reverses around the level of 1.1980 or breaks down the level of 1.1920 with target at 1.1855 and stop-losses at 1.2010 and 1.1950.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

As a result of trading during the previous week the price of Brent oil grew approaching maximums of April 2016. US refineries resume operations after Harvey and Irma storms. Moreover, investors became optimistic after the news about the reduction of drilling activity in the USA. Also Brent continues to receive support from IEA that increased the outlook of global demand for 2017 from 1.5 to 1.6 mln barrels a day.

The trading instrument shows mixed dynamics formed in view of expected Fed's decision on the key interest rate. The demand for high-risk assets dropped. Along with this, according to an OPEC report, the oversupply of oil in the world market is reducing, and soon the cartel and other member states will discuss the extension of the global oil pact.

A key event of the week will be the announcement of the Fed's decision on the monetary policy on Wednesday. Today attention should be paid to API report on the level of oil and petrochemicals stocks in the USA.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range has widened indicating the preservation of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area.

Support levels: 55.00, 54.30, 53.55, 52.80.
Resistance levels: 55.75, 56.10, 56.65, 57.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the current price with target at 56.30 and stop-loss at 54.80. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 54.75 with target at 53.95 and stop-loss at 55.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.