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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

LiteForex Official

Broker Representative
AUD/USD: pair resumed fall

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly fell after the RBA decision on interest rates. As was expected, the regulator left the rate unchanged at 2%.
At the same time, in its Rate Statement the regulator noted that it does not rule out further monetary policy easing this year if the economy continues slowing down due to the outside factors. It also noted that inflation is likely to remain very low in the medium-term.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is turning down and forming a sell signal. Stochastic is falling.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 0.7015 (local low), 0.6981, 0.6936, 0.6900 (21 January low), 0.6875, 0.6850, 0.6826 (15 January low).
Resistance levels: 0.7045 (local high), 0.7068, 0.7100, 0.7128 (local high), 0.7158, 0.7183, 0.7200 (5 January high).

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7015 with the target at 0.6900 and stop-loss at 0.7060. Validity – 2-3 days.
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 0.7015 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 0.7100 and stop-loss at 0.6960. Validity – 2-3 days.

Analytics from LiteForex

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LiteForex Official

Broker Representative
USD/CAD: pair is falling

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly declined amid growing oil prices that were supported by strong data on the Caixin China Services PMI.
In addition, the pair was pressured by mixed data from the US. The ADP Employment Change for January came out at 205 thousands that was better than forecasts but substantially worse than the previous figure. The Markit Services PMI for January fell from 53.7 to 53.2 points, which did not match the expectations.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to labour market data from the US and Canada.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly widening. MACD continues growing. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.3780 (local low), 1.3700, 1.3650, 1.3622 (10 December 2015 low), 1.3554, 1.3500.
Resistance levels: 1.3850 (local high), 1.3900, 1.3947, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.4050, 1.4100 (local high), 1.4169, 1.4200, 1.4325 (26 January high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3780 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.3700. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3700 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3500 and stop-loss at 1.3760. Validity – 2-3 days.

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LiteForex Official

Broker Representative
USD/CHF: Franc continues growing

Current trend
Last week the pair significantly fell.
The pair was pressured by the latest Fed monetary policy meeting that substantially decreased chances of further interest rate hikes in the US. In addition, the USD was pressured by poor data on the Nonfarm Payrolls that fell from 262 to 151 thousands, while economists predicted 190 thousands. However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.9%, while Average Hourly Earnings grew by 0.5%.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning down while the price range is widening. At the same time, the indicator formed a signal for correctional growth as the price has left the range. MACD is falling and giving a strong sell signal. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and turning horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.9920 (local low), 0.9900, 0.9879 (11 January low), 0.9851 (24 December low), 0.9818, 0.9800, 0.9784 (14 December low).
Resistance levels: 0.9956 (local high), 1.0000 (psychologically important level), 1.0032, 1.0067, 1.0100, 1.0123 (3 February high), 1.0166, 1.0200, 1.0254 (29 January high), 1.0281.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.0000 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.0100 and stop-loss at 0.9960. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.0000 with the target at 0.9900 and stop-loss at 1.0050. Validity – 2-3 days.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The rate of the pound rapidly fell against USD in the end of the previous week dropping by 230 points. The pair closed trading at the level of 1.2808 which is the lowest closing price in the previous four weeks. The fall of GBP was caused by the polls taken in view of the upcoming UK election. The positions of the conservative wavered after Manchester events.

Last week the price failed to overcome an important level of 1.3030 which would have given the "bulls" an additional impulse. Today is a holiday in the UK and USA, therefore no activity in the market should be expected due to low liquidity. This should keep the pair GBP/USD within the narrow range and in the consolidation regime.

In the USA FOMC statement on the interest rate was more cautios than expected. The regulator pointed out that the increase of interest rates will depend on the information received by it. Therefore the release of the data on the nonfarm payrolls schedulled in the end of the week shall determine yet another direction for USD. The pound, in turn, may be under pressure in view of the news about another referendum in Scotland on its exit from the UK in case of the victory of the dominant party at the election on June 8.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2830, 1.2800.
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2975, 1.3015, 1.3045.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2790 with target at 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2820.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2850 with targets at 1.2900 and stop-loss at1.2820.
The period of implementation is 2-5 days.

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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The growth of Canadian dollar strengthened after the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interet rate made last week. As a result the pair reached its six-weeks minimum from which upward correction (purple trend line) started. Right now the movement of the pair is hindered by a stronger trend line — the blue one. The price is likely to meet it between the levels of 1.3535 and 1.3600.
Today the dynamics of the pair may be influenced by the important data from Canada and the USA. The data on the Canadian trading balance and raw materials prices index are due at 14:30 (GMT+2). The information on personal income and expenditure will be published in the USA at the same time.
The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3535, 1.3600 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3426 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3456.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.


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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the dynamics of the pair USD/CHF was determined by negative values of oth currencies. After Swiss index of leading economic indicators for May appeared to be wore than expected, the pair moved up from the narrow two-weeks flat. But weak data on the consumer confidence index from the USA returned the price of the pair back to the range indicating that it was falsely broken through.
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is due today in Switzerland at 10:00 (GMT+2).

PMI Chicago will be published at 15:45 (GMT+2). The data on incompleted sales transactions in the US real estate market is due at 16:00 (GMT+2). FOMC Beige Book Economic Review is due at 20:00 (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9640, 0.9550.
Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930, 1.0000.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.9700, 0.9640 and stop-loss at 0.9780.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.9780 with targets at 0.9850, 0.9930 and stop-loss at 0.9740.

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NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The New Zealand dollar is lowering during the trading session today.
The NZD is weakening due to the poor PRC data publications. According to Caixin, the China Manufacturing PMI lowered below the level of 50 for the first time from June, 2016. In May the index lowered by 0.7 to 49.6 points. The index evaluates the state of the manufacturing industry.

A reading above 50 is perceived as positive for the Chinese economy. A reading below 50 is perceived as negative. The New Zealand economy is responsive to the PRC economical news, as China is its major trading partner.
Today the list of US economical news will be published. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is worth traders’ attention, as it will give an insight of the economy growth rate, and the ISM Prices Paid.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is moving within the upward channel. It is expected to trade near its lower border. MACD is above the zero line, but its volumes are decreasing, Stochastic is pointed downwards. The indicators give a sell signal.

Support levels: 0.7060, 0.7020, 0.6970.
Resistance levels: 0.7090, 0.7130, 0.7185.

Trading scenario

Buy the pair after the price is set above the level of 0.7090 with the target at 0.7130 and 0.7185, stop loss is at 0.7070.
Short positions seem more relevant, open ones below the level of 0.7060 with the target at 0.7020 and 0.6970 and stop loss at 0.7080.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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NZD/USD: general analysis

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Thursday was volatile for the pair EUR/USD which was caused by yesterday’s releases and the news due today, in particular changes in nonfarm payrolls.
Yesterday after slight growth during the morning trading the pair got cheaper in view of release on an ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector. The indicator that precedes the NFP report showed growth and exceeded expectations strengthening USD and giving sufficient proof that the report on nonfarm payrolls will be positive. Strong NP data in turn will indirectly support the increase of FOMC rates in June.

The growth of initial jobless claims had a negative impact on the US currency and slowed down the fall of the pair. It dropped to1.1200 but failed to break through a strong support level.
Today the market is expected to be highly volatile.

Support and resistance

On the H1 chart the pair is demonstrating lateral movement within a narrow price range formed by the borders of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is around the zero mark, and its volumes are minimal.

Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1120.
Resistance levels: 1.1240, 1.1265.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.1190 with targets at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1220.
Long positions may be opened from 1.1240 with targets at 1.1290 and top-loss at 1.1210.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

The Canadian dollar fell last week against the US dollar, despite the fact that the data on Canadian GDP came out much better than expected. Nevertheless, the significant fall in oil prices, which reached a three-week low last week, and the strengthening of the US dollar up until Friday weakened the Canadian currency; and the pair USD/CAD was growing.

However, the trend line zone (blue) close to the resistance area of 1.3550 once again showed its strength, and the pair was corrected downwards. The correction of the pair also had a fundamental reason – the Friday data of the US labor market, which turned out to be worse than the forecast.

At the beginning of this week important indicators are going to be released: productivity level in the non-agricultural sector of the USA (14:30 GMT+2), it is expected to grow by 0.4%; the index of business activity and the index of activity in the US services sector (15:45 GMT+2); the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) of the US at 16:00 (GMT+2) (the forecast promises a decrease in the index by 0.5 points). Tomorrow, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in Canada will be published.

We can hardly expect a rapid return of investor confidence after their disappointment with the US dollar on Friday, therefore, for the next two days we expect the consolidation of the pair.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading scenario

Short positions should be opened at the market price with the targets of 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3540.
An alternative scenario would be to buy at 1.3535 with targets of 1.3600, 1.3700 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

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NZD/USD: weak US stats push the pair up

Current trend
The pair is growing for the fourth week and by now has reached a maximum value in the region of 0.7170. The US currency was seriously weakened by recent negative statistics: the number of new jobs fell to 138 thousand. On Monday, unconvincing data showed the US business activity index in the non-industrial sector, which in March was worse than forecasted and amounted to 56.9 points. The deterioration of US statistics may slow the rate hike. On the other hand, the general support for New Zealand currency is provided by the milk prices: according to the Global Dairy Trade auction, a stable growth of over 3% has been observed for 6 weeks. In addition, the corporate news strengthen “kiwi”: one of the largest dairy producers in Australia Murray Goulburn was forced to close part of the production and cut 360 jobs, which plays into the hands of the New Zealand company Fonterra, which holds about 30% of world exports of dairy products and providing significant income to the budget of New Zealand.

Support and resistance
In technical terms, the price is testing the 0.7170 level (Fibonacci correction of 23.6%) and, in case of break through it can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375 (annual highs). On the other hand, Stochastic's entry into the overbought zone indicates a possible downward correction to the mid-range of the Bollinger bands and Fibo’s 38.2% – to the 0.7000 level.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6875, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7170, 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7170 with targets of 0.7250 and 0.7320 and stop-loss order at 0.7140. With the rebound of the price from the level of 0.7170, short positions with the target of 0.7000 and stop-loss order 0.7170 will become relevant.


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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Due to the empty macroecnomic calendar market participants continued to act based on the negative labor market statistics and to sell the US currency. As a result the pair EUR/USD rose to the resistance level of 1.1284. After multiple tests of this level trading moved to the side channel. The traders are waiting for the ECB fiscal policy meeting and the results of parliamentary election in the UK and do not open major positions. If ECB increases its economic forecatrs, the rate of EUR/USD will continue to increase. If the rhetorics of the European regulator appears to be mild, one may expect the rate of EUR/USD to decrease.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators confirm the lateral tendency: Bollinger Bands are directed sidewards; MACD histogram is in the positive zone and moving alon the zero line.
Support levels: 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1135.
Resistance levels: 1.1284, 1.1324, 1.1381.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.1232 with targets at 1.1180, 1.1135 at stop-loss at 1.1265.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.1284 with targets at 1.1324, 1.1381 and stop-loss at 1.1254.

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YM: general review

Current trend

Dow Jones continues to trade near historical maximums: 21223.2 or 8/8 Murrey. Breaking through and consolidation above this level will open it the way to 21250.4. In the near future a vote on the Financial Choice Act project may take place. The purpose of the project is to reduce the level of regulation of the US baning system and reserve requirements for commercial banks. If the project is passed, the market may experience excessive liquidity which in the end may positively influence the stock market.

The second event that may impact stock markets all over the world is the UK parliamentary election. According to the initial data, the majority of places in the Parliament is to be taken by the Conservative Party under the leadership of Theresa May. However due to terrorist attacks the gap between them and other parties (namely the Labor Party) is narrowing.
Initial and secondary jobless claims are also to be publised in the USA. A slight drop by approximately 8 thousand is expected.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is reaching the level of 80 points or the overbought zone and signals about possible correction. Short positions may be opened only in case the lower support level of 7/8 Murrey or 21094.1 is broken through.
Support levels: 21094.1.
Resistance levels: 21223.2.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 21094.1 with targets at 20937.8 and stop-loss at 21223.2.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The pound fell by over 200 points against US dollar in view of release of exit polls data. According to them, the possibility that the Concervative Party may lose its absolute majority in the Parliament remained. Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early election hoping to get far bigger advantage, and the results of the election were truly shocking. Thus, according to recent BBC data, the conservatives are expected to get 318 places out of 650, and the Labor Party is to receive 267 places. The Brexit process becomes even more uncertain now which will add risks for the pound in the short and medium term.

The main item of the agenda today is the results of the UK election. After the release of the official data the market is expected to become volatile.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2700.
Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2780, 1.2800, 1.2850.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2670 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2700.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2780 with target at 1.2850 and stop-loss at 1.2750.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

WTI quotes after a long fall moved to the upward correction phase from the level of 45.36. Oil prices gained certain support from the statement of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia that his country has considerably decrease oil supply to the market. Today market players will pay attention to initial data from API on weekly changes of oil reserves in the USA (22:30, GMT+2). If the data shows the increase of the reserves, WTI quotes will get under pressure. Otherwise oil prices will be supported in the short term.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators point at the preservation of the buyers activity. Bollinger Bands are pointing upwards. MACD histogram is in negative zone, but its volume is decreasing, signalling about the increasing influence of the buyers. Breaking through the level of 46.85 will be a signal for growth continuation and will open the way to the level of 47.80 for the buyers. If the sellers take the initiative and drop the rate below the lower line of Bollinger Bands (46.11), the fall will continue to 45.38.
Support levels: 46.11, 45.38, 44.53.
Resistance levels: 46.85, 47.80, 49.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 46.85 with targets at 47.80 and stop-loss at 46.60.
Sell positions may be opened below 46.11 with targets at 45.38 and stop-loss at 46.40.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The rate of GBP/USD continues to gradually strengthen and has already reached the level of 1.2800, but failed to consolidate above it.

After the release of mixed statistics pon the UK labor market the rate moved downward. Jobless Claims were better than expected and decreased to 7.3K in May from 22K a month earlier. Average salary was worse than expected: the growth of the indicator slowed down to 2.1% in April against 2.3% a month earlier. Investors reacted to this news with the sales of the British currency.

After the release of statistics from the UK the main macroeconomic event of the day will be the decision of FOMC on the interest rate followed by comments on the fiscal policy. Market participants expect FOMC to increase the interest rate at its meeting by 0.25 percentage points t 1.25%. Thus, the fact of the rate's increase has already been included into the current USD rate.

If the rate is increased, US dollar will receive support in the short term which will lead to the reduction of GBP/USD rate. If FOMC decides not to increase the rate, or if follow-up comments of its head show cautious or pessimistic attitude to the prospects of the US economy (level of unemployment, inflation), investors will start to sell USD which would lead to the growth of GBP/USD rate.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are directed sidewards indicating lateral movement. MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone reacting to the recent growth of the rate but does not provide a clear signal. Stochastic is directed downwards indicating the increasing influence of sellers.
Support levels: 1.2714, 1.2674, 1.2636.
Resistance levels: 1.2768, 1.2802, 1.2850.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.2714 with targets at 1.2674-1.2636 at stop-loss at 1.2740.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.2768 with targets at 1.2802, 1.2850 and stop-loss at 1.2745.

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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Since the end of the previous week Canadian currency has been actively strengthening against USD due to positive data from the Canadian labor market. Moreover, CAD is supported by the statement of chief deputy chairperson of the Bank of Canada Caroline Wilkins made on Monday, in which the issue of increasing the interest rate was first mentioned. The reaction of the investors was to be expected. At first the pair USD/CAD dropped below the year trend line (blue) and then broke through the level of 1.3300 that is considered an important border between "bullish" and "bearish" tendencies. Yesterday after the decision of FOMC on the interest rate and folow-up press conference USD started to strengthen and the pair USD/CAD to correct.

The data on the unemployment rate (the number of jobless claims is expected to decrease) and industrial activity index by FRB Philadelphia (expected to fall by 14 points) are due at 14:30 (GMT+2). The volume of US industrial output will be published at 15:15 (GMT+2) (the indicator is expected to fall by 0.8%), and the volume of purchases of long-term securities (to decrease by $22.5 bln) —at 22:00 (GMT+2).
The pair is expected to continue consolidation in the next couple of days.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3510, 1.3410, 1.3380, 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3220, 1.3160, 1.3080, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3300, 1.3380 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Alternatively sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3220 with targets at 1.3160, 1.3080 and stop-loss at 1.3280.
The period of implementation is 2 days.

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CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI has formed a “double bottom” reverse pattern. The Composite is about to test its longer MA and keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing towards the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are turning down. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 5155.0 (April gap), 5090.0 (March highs), 5078.0 (June 2015 highs).
Resistance levels: 5314.0 (local highs), 5367.0 (June highs), 5400.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching its short-term descending trendline. Its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5314.0 with targets at 5367.0, 5400.0 and stop-loss at 5275.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened form the level of 5155.0 with targets at 5090.0, 5078.0 and stop-loss at 5190.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

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NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

The key event of the previous day was the speech of Janet Yellen before the US Congress. The head of FOMC pointed out positive tendencies in the US economy and stated the regulator was planning to increase interest rates before the end of the year. Yellen's comments did not lead to considerable strengthening of USD, but the pair of NZD/USD dropped without consolidating above the resistance level of 0.7350 that it has been trying to break out for two years.

Today New Zealand published the data on industrial PMI. The fall of the value from 58.5 to 56.2 basis points and the comments by the head of FOMC may lead to the reversal of the instrument today.

Friday is rich in macroeconomic data from the USA. Statistics is expected to be positive for the US currency and this will put considerable pressure on the pair.
Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument moved from the resistance level of 0.7330. Bollinger Bands have corrected sideward, while the price range has slightly broadened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in thee positive zone maintaining a weak buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.7285, 0.7250, 0.7210, 0.7170.
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7275, 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7340. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7345 with target at 0.7395 and stop-loss at 0.7320. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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Forex Analytics by LiteForex. EUR/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart the price failed to consolidate below the level of 1.1400 (correction 23.6%) but may resume attempts in the near future. Breaking through the level of 1.1400 near the crossing with the line of the upper fan at 38.2% and the 23.6% curve may lead to further correction to the level of 1.1345 (correction 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1). An important level for the "bulls" is 1.1487. After consolidating above it, the pair may enter long-term growth.

On the D1 chart the price remains within the upper trend and is testing the level of 1.1470. After breaking through it, the pair may continue growing to 1.1540 and 1.1600. Otherwise it may fall to the levels of 1.1340 (middle line of Bollinger Bands and correction 38.2% for H4) and 1.1255 (correction 23.6%). Gradual growth may continue as Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.

Main scenario

Buy positions look more preferable, but they should be opened after the price consolidates above 1.1470 with targets at 1.1540 and 1.1600. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1420.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may become relevant after the price consolidates below 1.1400 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1450.

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AUD/USD: the pair has reached its limit

Current trend

In the second half of July the rate of the Australian currency against USD rapidly grew. Within several days the pair gained over 350 points having broken through a number of key resistance levels. The pair has been moving upwards almost without downward corrections which shows considerable growth in the volumes of long positions. The main catalyst of this movement was yet another negative data from the USA, FOMC comments on possible postponing of monetary policy tightening, beneficial fundamental background from Australia, and stability of RBA monetary policy.

Last week weak labor market, inflation, and retail sales releases were published in the USA. Australia responded with strong data on consumer confidence index and consumer expectations. Positive prospects and current indicators included into the RBA minutes give AUD additional support.

Support and resistance

Today the pair tested a new local maximum and a key resistance level of 0.7945 and consolidated below this point. Later on the pair is likely to move from rapid growth stage to the consolidation stage. Historical data shows that the pair is widely trading in the side range. In this situation side channel may be limited by key support and resistance levels at 0.7800 and 0.7945 respectively. In the medium term the pair may reach the level of 0.8000, but this will be followed by deep downward correction. Investors have already started to move away from long positions, and in the future it will happen more often and will become the main factor of pressure on the pair. Technical indicators continue to give a sell signal, and MACD shows the preservation of long positions.

Support levels: 0.7860, 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7720, 0.7680, 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7400, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7945, 0.7980, 0.8000, 0.8070, 0.8150.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from key resistance levels at 0.7945, 0.8000 with target at 0.7580 and short stop-loss at 0.8060.

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