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Forex Analysis by LiteForex

Discussion in 'Market Forecasts and Analysis' started by LiteForex Official, Nov 16, 2015.

  1. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.1300, which was achieved due to the active decline of the instrument the day before. Market sentiment worsened again after the publication of the two-day Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. Despite the fact that the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and did not announce new radical measures to support the economy, the demand for safe assets has grown markedly. This was partly due to the release of updated forecasts from the Fed, which did not bode well for the US economy. An additional pressure on risky currencies is exerted by alarming reports of an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in various countries. Investors fear that a second wave of the epidemic may begin closer to the autumn, and the economy will have to close again.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is slightly declining against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bearish" momentum formed the day before. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the widespread strengthening of USD, as well as a markedly reduced interest of investors in risk. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Thursday turned out to be moderately optimistic. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 5 decreased from 1.897M to 1.542M, which was slightly better than market expectations of 1.550M. Continuing Jobless Claims as of May 29 also showed a downtrend from 21.268M to 20.929M with a forecast of a decrease to 20M. On Friday, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of GDP and industrial production for April. UK GDP is expected to fall by a record 18.4% in April.

    AUD/USD

    AUD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session. The active decline was replaced by flat trading; the instrument is trading near 0.6850, very close to the opening point. Investors are still actively buying American currency amid a marked decline in optimism in the market. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting published on Wednesday helped lower demand for risk, as they again reminded traders of the magnitude of the economic crisis that erupted against the backdrop of the COVID-19 epidemic. Additional pressure on AUD is also exerted by a slowdown in commodity markets, despite the fact that OPEC+ agreed to extend the agreement on limiting oil production until the end of July.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session. The US currency is adding about 0.33% and is testing 107.20 for a breakout. The "bullish" dynamics of the instrument replaced the four-day downward rally, following which USD updated local lows since May 11against JPY. In addition to the widespread strengthening of USD, pressure on JPY on Friday was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In April, industrial production in the country decreased by 15% YoY after a decrease of 5.2% YoY in March. In monthly terms, production collapsed by 9.8% MoM with a decrease of 3.7% MoM in March. BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index in Q2 2020 decreased from –17.2 to –52.3 points.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's morning session, consolidating near 1730.00. The day before, the instrument showed negative dynamics, retreating from its local highs since June 2 against the background of widespread strengthening of USD. Additional pressure on gold was exerted by the fact that the US regulator has at the moment abandoned the idea of negative interest rates, and is inclined to take a wait and see attitude, continuing only to increase the program of quantitative easing if necessary. At the same time, the Fed's economic indicators and forecasts indicate a rather difficult situation for the American economy, which supports the demand for gold. In addition, investors are worried about the possibility of a second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, which could force countries to return some of the restrictions before the vaccine is found.
     
  2. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    EUR/USD: EUR is corrected

    Current trend

    EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today’s Asian session, retreating from local lows updated at the end of last trading week, marked by a two-day decline in EUR quotes. The instrument is testing the level of 1.2560 for a breakout. EUR is supported by technical factors, as well as the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from China, which, however, turned out worse than its forecasts. Industrial Production in China in May showed an increase of 4.4% YoY after an increase of 3.9% YoY in April. Analysts expected an increase of 5% YoY. Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 2.8% YoY after falling by 7.5% YoY in April. Market forecasts suggested a decline of 2% YoY.

    In general, in the current situation, the position of EUR looks very promising. Experts believe that in the near future, EUR will make an attempt to grow to its March highs at 1.1500.

    Support and resistance

    Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downtrend but is located near its lows, which indicates the growing risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term.

    Resistance levels: 1.1284, 1.1340, 1.1421, 1.1500.
    Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1153, 1.1100, 1.1054.
     
  3. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the positions of EUR look quite stable, given the gradual recovery of the global economy after the COVID-19 epidemic. At the same time, when it comes to individual macroeconomic publications and statements by officials, the picture is not so clear. On Monday, the eurozone reported on the dynamics of the trade balance in April. The indicator fell sharply from a surplus of EUR 25.5B to EUR 1.2B, which was significantly worse than market expectations of EUR 22.9B. European investors today are focused on the statistics on consumer prices in Germany in May. Also, ZEW reports on Economic Sentiment are expected to be released in Germany and the eurozone.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows active growth against USD during today's morning session, updating local highs of June 11. The instrument adds about 0.50% and is testing the level of 1.2670 for a breakout. GBP is supported by the corrective sentiment on USD, while the fundamental factors for the growth of GBP are quite insignificant. Traders are focused on April data on the UK labor market. According to the results of April, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.9%, and the Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from 2.4% 3MoY to 1% 3MoY. In the US, investors expect the release of May statistics on retail sales, as well as a speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress.

    AUD/USD

    AUD continues moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, taking advantage of the weakness of USD in the market. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from China supported the instrument, although it did not meet all the expectations of analysts. Industrial Production in May increased by 4.4% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 3.9% YoY. Experts predicted an increase of 5% YoY. During today's morning session, investors are focused on statistics from Australia, which, however, does not have a significant impact on the instrument. The RBA published the minutes of its June 2 meeting, at which the regulator kept the rate unchanged at 0.25% and noted that the current monetary policy provides the Australian economy with all the necessary support.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows uncertain growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a “bullish” signal for correctional growth, formed at the end of last week. A meeting of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate was held this morning. As expected, the regulator took a wait-and-see position and kept the key interest rate at –0.1%. In an follow-up statement, the Bank of Japan noted that it would maintain the current monetary policy rate until it reaches the inflation target of 2%.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show flat trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after quite active trading the day before. At the beginning of the week, the instrument showed a steady decline, which was partially triggered by the appearance of correctional dynamics for the oversold USD. Closer to the end of the trading session on Monday, the "bulls" managed to recoup, which was due to increased fears about the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. The launch of the next Main Street lending program by the US Federal Reserve, which has been actively developed over the past 3 months, provided support to the instrument. Under the new program, financial assistance will be available to small and medium-sized businesses with no more than 15K employees. Loans totaling up to USD 600B are supposed to be granted.
     
  4. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline yesterday, which was triggered by a new wave of growth in investor demand for safe assets. In turn, the published macroeconomic statistics from Germany and the eurozone turned out to be quite optimistic. Germany's consumer price index in May grew by 0.6% YoY, while the harmonized CPI added 0.5% YoY, which fully coincided with market expectations. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in June rose sharply from 51 to 63.4 points, exceeding the forecast for growth to 60 points. The index of economic sentiment in the eurozone in June also increased from 46 to 58.6 points (ZEW survey data). European investors today are focused on the statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area in May. In addition, the market is awaiting speeches by ECB representatives Yves Mersch and Luis de Guindos.

    GBP/USD

    GBP today shows flat trading against USD, consolidating after yesterday's "bearish" correction. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by the growing USD, which again became popular amid alarming concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, which intensified yesterday when China announced that it would close all schools in Beijing due to a another surge in infections. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday turned out to be mixed. Investors were optimistic about the unemployment rate from ILO, which in April remained at the previous level of 3.9% 3MoY with a forecast of growth of up to 4.5% 3MoY. However, investors understand that the calculation period matters and the real situation in the UK labor market is noticeably worse. Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from +2.3% 3MoY to +1.0% 3MoY in April, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of +1.4% 3MoY.

    AUD/USD

    AUD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near 0.6870. The instrument weakened noticeably amid growing fears about a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. Morbidity statistics in individual countries show growth, and China, for example, has decided to close all schools in Beijing because of another surge in infections. Additional support for USD was provided by the comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who said that the US economy may have reached its bottom and is beginning a period of active recovery. Today's macroeconomic statistics released in Australia did not have any noticeable effect on the movement of the instrument. HIA New Home Sales in April decreased by 4.2% MoM after falling by 1.1% MoM last month.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing flat dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since June 10. Both USD and JPY received support amid alarming news of the closure of schools in Beijing due to an outbreak of coronavirus incidence, which increased the risks of a second wave of the epidemic in the world. Additional support to USD was provided on Tuesday by macroeconomic statistics in the US. Retail Sales in May showed strong growth of 17.7% MoM after a decline of 14.7% MoM in April. Analysts had expected growth of 8% MoM. Industrial Production in May grew by 1.4% MoM after a record decline of 12.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 2.9% MoM.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices change insignificantly; however, they continue to be kept close to record highs, as the market situation remains ambiguous. Significant support for the instrument is provided by rising concerns about the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, which again could lead to significant restrictions and, as a result, to another economic downturn. In addition, investors prefer gold knowing the details of a new loan assistance program from the Fed. At the same time, yesterday’s speech by the head of the Fed Jerome Powell aroused timid optimism among American investors. Among other things, the official said that the American economy has reached its bottom, and at the moment, an active process of its recovery is beginning.
     
  5. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's morning session. The instrument is trading near 1.1250, feeling the pressure due to growing alarming market sentiment toward the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Demand for USD intensified after reports from China, which was forced to close schools in Beijing, cancel more than 1,000 domestic flights and introduce a three-week quarantine in Heilongjiang, where another outbreak was recorded. The macroeconomic data from the eurozone, published on Wednesday, also added negativity. Consumer Price Index fell by 0.1% MoM in May after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. In annual terms, prices retained the same minimum rate of growth (0.1% YoY). According to April data, the Construction Output volume collapsed by 28.4% YoY after a decrease of 17.5% YoY last month.

    GBP/USD

    GBP today is trading in both directions paired with USD maintaining a "bearish" momentum formed two days ago. GBP, like many other currencies on the market, has recently yielded to the "safe" USD due to rising fears about a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. UK macroeconomic statistics released yesterday only added negative factors to the market, although the reaction of investors has been largely restrained. Inflation in the UK in May dropped from +0.8% YoY to +0.5% YoY, which is likely to push the Bank of England to new actions. Retail Price Index for the same period moved into the negative area, falling by 0.1% MoM, while analysts expected growth by 0.1%. Today, investors are focused on the Bank of England decision on the interest rate. Most experts are confident that the regulator will not change the interest rate, but will increase the volume of the quantitative easing program, which now amounts to 645B pounds.

    NZD/USD

    NZD shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of lateral trend in the short term. Buying activity for the instrument significantly decreased last week, when alarming statistics began to arrive on the market, which may indicate the imminent start of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Geopolitical tensions are also growing. Relations between South Korea and the DPRK escalated during the week, and an armed conflict occurred on the border between China and India, in which dozens people were killed. New Zealand macroeconomic statistics released today also turned out to be negative. According to the results of Q1 2020, New Zealand's GDP decreased by 0.2% YoY after an increase of 1.8% YoY in the previous period. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.3% YoY. On a quarterly basis, New Zealand's economy fell by 1.6% QoQ, with a forecast of a reduction of only 1% QoQ.

    USD/JPY

    USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bearish" momentum that formed the day before. The market is again seeing an increase in investor interest in safe assets amid growing geopolitical tensions and growing risks of a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. At the same time, USD received some support from data on the US housing market on Wednesday. In May, Housing Starts increased by 0.974M after an increase of 0.934M last month. Building Permits number issued for the same period also increased markedly from 1.066M to 1.22M, which, however, was slightly worse than market expectations. Today, investors are focused on the dynamics of initial and continuing jobless claims in the US.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, maintaining a similar trend in the short term. Yesterday, the asset quotes showed an active decline, which was associated with the news about the treatment process of COVID-19. Later, however, the "bears" quickly lost their gains, and the instrument returned to the opening levels amid growing alarming news about the second wave of the epidemic and rising geopolitical risks.
     
  6. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Brent Crude Oil: oil continues growing

    Current trend

    Brent crude prices continue upward movement amid rising fears of declining demand due to the repeated outbreak of COVID-19 in China.

    As China introduces new restrictions, investors fear another wave of falling demand for energy. This week, schools were closed in Beijing and air traffic was stopped, which alerted markets and triggered a surge in asset volatility.

    In relative terms of expectations are stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy (EIA). According to API, weekly oil reserves in storage were 3.900M barrels, which is significantly lower than 8.400M barrels last week. According to EIA, oil stocks showed a slight increase of 1.215M barrels, according to the forecasts of a decrease of 0.152M barrels. Excessive oil reserves in Cushing storage continued to decline, amounting to –2.608M barrels against a projected decrease of 0.183M barrels.

    Support and resistance

    The price of the asset continues to form global upward correction and this week it broke the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% out. Today, the growth may continue and new attempts to consolidate above this level may be made. Technical indicators continue to hold the global buy signal: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is still expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator stays in the positive zone.

    Resistance levels: 44.80, 51.00.
    Support levels: 38.60, 31.00.
     
  7. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    USD/JPY: general review

    Current trend

    The pair is moderately correcting upward from the opening of trading due to a stable retention of the USD Index above the level of 97 points.

    At the end of last week, Policy Board of the Bank of Japan Statement was published. The guidelines for the next period have not changed. The interest rate remains at –0.10%, the purchase of ten-year government bonds will continue with a yield of about 0%, the value of purchases will be increased to JPY 80T. Also, Japan's national consumer price index in May amounted to –0.2%, which is slightly worse than the forecast of –0.1%.

    There have been no important statistics from the USA that could affect the exchange rate of USD in recent days, and the USD Index continues to be on Friday quotes, above the level of psychological stability at 97 points, at 97.450.

    Support and resistance

    The pair continues to trade within the correctional formation between the levels of intermediate and basic Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators continue holding sell signals. The EMA oscillation range expands with a downtrend, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the negative zone.

    Resistance levels: 107.70, 109.10.
    Support levels: 106.60, 105.50.
     
  8. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    WTI Crude Oil: price continues to rise

    Current trend

    Oil prices rise slightly near 40.00 amid concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    It seemed that after the extension of the OPEC+ deal, the black gold market was not in danger, and an early recovery in energy prices could be expected but a new wave of coronavirus was again causing demand to decline. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported a record increase in the number of infected in the world, the main epicenters of which are the countries of Latin America.

    Meanwhile, the spread in the main arbitrage position between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil is $2.64, the lowest since the beginning of the year. Such a narrowing indicates the accumulation of a very large position, which, if implemented, will significantly affect the asset quotes.

    Support and resistance

    The asset continues global correctional growth, and at the end of last week, the price finally fixed above the level of the intermediate correction of 50.0% Fibonacci. Although the global trend indicator Alligator continues to keep a buy signal, the range of EMA fluctuations continues to narrow, and downtrend bars continue to form on the AO oscillator.

    Resistance levels: 42.00, 53.00.
    Support levels: 35.40, 28.80.
     
  9. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    United States of America
    USD continues weakening against all major currencies included in the USD Index.

    USD is declining under the pressure of the tense situation in the country. Mass riots and protests have a negative impact on market conditions. Even positive data on New Home Sales, which in May amounted to 676K against the forecast of 640K, are not able to stop the downtrend. During the day, investors are waiting for the publication of data on price indices and weekly oil inventories, where another reduction is expected.

    Eurozone
    EUR is strengthening against USD and other major currencies.

    Yesterday's data on Manufacturing PMI in Germany in June, which showed an increase to 44.6 points against expectations of 41.5 points, as well as on Services PMI in the eurozone, which also rose to 47.3 points with expectations at 41.0 points, contribute to additional interest in EUR from investors. The main expectations of traders today are associated with the publication of the German IFO Business Climate index for June, which is expected to rise to 85.0 points.

    United Kingdom
    GBP is strengthening against all major world currencies.

    Yesterday turned out to be extremely positive in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Composite PMI in Britain rose to 47.6 points against expectations of 41.0 points. Manufacturing PMI reached 50.1 points against expectations of 45.0 points, while Services PMI rose to 47.0 points, which is much better than the forecast of 40.0 points. The follow-up statement by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, was also filled with positive rhetoric regarding economic forecasts and the early exit of Britain from the EU.

    Japan
    JPY is trading in both directions with respect to the major world currencies with a prevailing tendency to strengthen.

    Japanese currency was positively impacted by yesterday's data on Services PMI, which rose to 42.3 points from 26.5 points earlier. The investment community also positively accepted the statement of the White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, who said that the trade deal with China would continue to operate, thereby refuting his previous statements in which he said that the deal could be terminated at any time.

    Australia
    AUD is strengthening against most major currencies.

    The market continues to positively view AUD after a recent speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, who assured investors of the stability and high efficiency of the current monetary policy, which allows keeping key indicators at target levels. To a greater extent, this applies to inflation, which does not exceed 2.2%, and the long-term benchmark at a key rate of 0.25%.

    Oil
    Oil prices show a moderate decline at the beginning of the day.

    The energy market continues to be heavily pressured by concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yesterday's data on weekly oil reserves from the American Petroleum Institute showed their unexpected increase to 1.749M barrels against expectations of 0.300M barrels. In this regard, the most important for today's dynamics will be data from the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy, as well as data on excess oil reserves in Cushing's storage, which have been declining for 6 consecutive weeks.
     
  10. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    XAU/USD: gold comes to the fore again

    Current trend

    Gold quotes stays above the channel resistance line at the level of 1748.0, trading at the level of 1763.0.

    The precious metals market is growing. Recently, the instrument was supported by growing fears about a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of virus victims in Latin America has already exceeded 100K people, and in some regions of the United States there is an increase in newly detected cases by 25–30% against last week.

    The volatility of the US dollar is extremely high, which is a bad signal for conservative investors. The second negative factor is the decline in oil prices. Of the Big Three, only gold remains relatively stable. It causes the inflow of new capital into it, which contributes to the growth of the precious metal.

    Support and resistance

    The price trades confidently above the resistance level of the sideways channel, and the prospects for further growth are quite high. Technical indicators signal a possible continuation of the uptrend. The range of fluctuations of the EMA indicator Alligator is expanding with an upward trend, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, going into the buying zone, is forming upward bars.

    Resistance levels: 1778.0, 1800.0.
    Support levels: 1748.0, 1670.0.
     
  11. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Brent Crude Oil: oil rises again

    Current trend

    Brent crude oil prices are recovering after a significant drop in the middle of the week on the backdrop of negative news about the increase in stocks in storage.

    Stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy (EIA) were unexpected. According to API data, weekly oil reserves in storage were 1.749M barrels, which is significantly higher than the forecast of 0.300M barrels. According to the EIA, oil reserves held by US firms showed an increase of up to 1.442M barrels, with analysts projecting 0.219M barrels. Excessive oil reserves in Cushing’s storage also remained in the negative zone, showing –0.991M barrels after a decrease of –2.608M barrels last week.

    Also, quotes could be affected by the EIA report, according to which US oil production grew by 0.5M barrels and reached 11.0M barrels per day.

    Support and resistance

    The price of the asset continues to form a global upward correction and this week it consolidated above the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%. Today, continued growth and new attempts to achieve higher levels are possible. Technical indicators continue to hold the global buy signal: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is still expanding, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is held in the positive zone.

    Resistance levels: 45.75, 51.80.
    Support levels: 39.25, 31.66.
     
  12. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after the "bearish" close of trading last week. The emergence of downtrend in the instrument was facilitated by the growth of correctional sentiment, while fundamentally the situation on the market changes little. EUR is recovering against expectations of the growth of the European economy; however, the outbreaks of disease that are recorded in various countries of the world again suggest the second wave of the epidemic, which can significantly affect the recovery of the global economy. Today, European investors are focused on the publication of statistics on business sentiment in the eurozone in June. Traders also expect the release of data on consumer inflation in Germany in June. Consumer inflation in Germany is projected to rise by 0,3 MoM after falling 0.1% MoM last month.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's morning session, retreating from local lows since May 29, updated at the end of last trading week. Macroeconomic data from the USA published last Friday turned out to be contradictory; however, on the whole, they contributed to a moderate growth of USD. Personal Spending of US citizens in May increased by 8.2% MoM after a decrease of 12.6% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth by 9% MoM. Personal Income, on the other hand, decreased by 4.2% MoM after rising by 10.8% MoM in April. Analysts had expected decline by 6% MoM. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell from 78.9 to 78.1 points in June, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 79 points. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of May statistics on consumer credit in the UK. In addition, a speech by the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, is expected during the day.

    NZD/USD

    NZD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located near 0.6400. Investors hesitate to open new long positions on the instrument, responding to alarming statistics that indicate an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the world. A number of US states suspend the program of gradual lifting of restrictions, which inevitably leads to a revision of previous forecasts regarding the restoration of the global economy. At the same time, consumer interest in NZD is supported by the publication of good macroeconomic statistics. Today, traders expect publication of information on the dynamics of the construction market in the US in May. Also the release of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index in June is expected today. Closer to the end of the American trading session, a speech will be made by the FOMC member, John Williams.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing flat trading against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument unsuccessfully tries to consolidate above 107.00, receiving support from the growth in demand for safe assets. Monday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Retail sales in Japan increased by 2.1% MoM in May after falling by 9.9% MoM a month earlier. At the same time, the annual indicator decreased by 12.3% YoY after a decrease of 13.9% YoY in April. Analysts had expected decline by 11.6% YoY. Large Retailers' Sales fell by 16.7% MoM, slightly correcting from the April rate of decline at 22.1% MoM.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trading near record highs since October 2012. The surge in the incidence of coronavirus is providing significant support to the asset, as investors are again actively talking about the second wave of the epidemic and the return of previous restrictions. In particular, alarming statistics come from the United States, where some states were forced to suspend the phased quarantine cancellation program. Additional support for gold is also provided by the soft monetary policy of the world's leading financial regulators.
     
  13. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR is trading in both directions against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after a moderate increase the day before. Yesterday, the pair managed to demonstrate active growth, but could not consolidate at new highs. The reason for the increase in purchasing activity for the instrument was the publication of good macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from Germany. Consumer Price Index in June accelerated from the previous –0.1% MoM to 0.6% MoM, which turned out to be better than expectations. In annual terms, prices added 0.9% YoY with an expected increase of 0.6% YoY. Harmonized Consumer Price Index for the same period accelerated from 0.5% YoY to 0.8% YoY, which also turned out to be better than the forecast of 0.6% YoY. Today, investors expect the release of statistics on consumer inflation for June in the eurozone. Also, traders will be focused on the speech of the ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound shows ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, trying to consolidate below 1.2300. Yesterday, GBP fell against USD again, updating local lows since May 28, while by the end of the trading session on Monday, the "bulls" managed to partially recoup. At the beginning of the week, GBP was under pressure from macroeconomic indicators released in the UK. Consumer Credit in May decreased by 4.597B pounds after a decrease of 7.425B pounds over the past period. Analysts had expected a decline of 2.5B. The number of Mortgage Approvals in May grew by only 9.273K, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecasts of 25K. Finally, investors were worried by statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who noted that he was ready for a dialogue with the EU on the Brexit issue, but was still considering an alternative scenario for the country to leave without an agreement at all.

    AUD/USD

    AUD strengthens slightly against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a weak "bullish" momentum formed yesterday. Buying activity in AUD remains restrained, as investors assess the prospects of a new wave of the coronavirus epidemic amid an increase in the number of cases in several countries, in particular in the US. Data from China provide some support to the instrument this morning, while Australian Private Sector Lending showed negative results. The Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in June showed an increase from 53.6 to 54.4 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.6 to 50.9 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of 50.4 points. In the US today, several important statements by officials are expected at once, including a speech by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress.

    USD/JPY

    USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's morning trading, located near local highs since June 9, updated the day before. Support for USD is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Japan published on Monday. Japan's Unemployment Rate in May rose from 2.6% to 2.9%, exceeding growth forecasts to 2.8%. Over the same period, Industrial Production fell by 8.4% MoM and 25.9% YoY, while analysts expected a decline of 5.6% MoM and 11.3% YoY. An additional impetus for USD growth was a slight improvement in the dynamics of the number of new cases of coronavirus in the United States over the weekend. The country is experiencing a repeated increase in the incidence of COVID-19, with the result that some states are forced to return some of the restrictive measures.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are consolidating near eight-year highs, supported by rising concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. The growth of cases is recorded in the USA, Brazil and India, which forces investors to reconsider their forecasts regarding the pace of global economic recovery. Only news about the appearance of medicine that can ease the course of the disease, as well as active work on the invention of the vaccine softens the situation. In addition, judging by reports from China, Beijing has managed to take a second outbreak of the disease under control and stop the further spread of the epidemic.
     
  14. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR is showing a slight decrease against USD during today’s Asian session, consolidating after an active but multidirectional dynamics the day before. Yesterday, quite a lot of interesting macroeconomic statistics was released in Europe and the USA; however, it did not contribute to the formation of any intelligible vector of movement in the market. Coronavirus again became the main topic of discussion, which was once again emphasized during a joint speech by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell tried to soften the overall negative picture, noting that the US economy was able to recover to current levels faster than the initial estimates, but further prospects so far are slim. Today, investors are focused on the June report on the labor market in Germany, as well as data on Non-Farm Payrolls in the US from ADP.

    GBP/USD

    GBP slightly declines against USD in morning trading today, retreating from local highs since June 26, updated the day before. The reason for the active growth of the instrument on Tuesday was the positive comments of Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator on Brexit. Barnier emphasized that based on current agreements between the parties the potential conclusion of a trade deal is possible. Meanwhile, the growth of GBP was overshadowed by new alarming information about the increase in the number of patients with coronavirus in the UK. Earlier this week, the government announced the return of quarantine restrictions in Leicester, where a new outbreak was recorded.

    AUD/USD

    AUD is trading in both directions against USD during today’s Asian session, trying to consolidate below 0.6900. Some pressure on AUD is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Building Permits issued in May fell sharply by 16.4% MoM after a decrease of 1.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected deterioration in the dynamics of the indicator, but expected a decrease of 10% MoM. In annual terms, the number of permits fell by 11.6% YoY after an increase of 5.7% YoY a month earlier. In turn, data from China support the buying activity in the instrument. Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rose from 50.7 to 51.2 points against the forecast of a decrease to 50.5 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD is falling against JPY during today’s trading session, testing the level of 107.60 for a breakdown. The instrument managed to update local highs since June 9 at the opening of the session, but the uncertain market situation did not allow the “bulls” to consolidate at new levels. JPY is supported today by good macroeconomic indicators from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from 37.8 to 40.1 points in June, although analysts did not expect changes in the indicator. Consumer Confidence Index for the same period rose from 24 to 28.4 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations for a decrease to 20.9 points.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are trading in both directions near their multi-year highs, which were once again updated the day before. Investors are once again resorting to safe assets amid alarming news of a new outbreak of coronavirus, which may erase previous estimates of the timing of global economic recovery. First of all, the growing incidence in the United States is alarming, as the US economy has just begun to recover from the first wave of quarantine restrictions. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China also contribute to lower demand for risk. Earlier, Beijing passed a controversial national security bill, which implies the strengthening of state control in Hong Kong. In response to this decision, the USA withdrew the special status of Hong Kong, which implied certain preferences in the field of trade.
     
  15. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing an uncertain "bullish" momentum formed yesterday. European investors reacted optimistically to German labor market statistics. In June, the number of unemployed in the country fell sharply from 238K to 69K, with a forecast of a decrease to only 120K. However, the Unemployment Rate rose from 6.3% to 6.4%, but turned out to be better than its forecasts of 6.6%. Germany also showed steady growth in retail sales. In May, sales grew by 13.9% MoM and 3.8% YoY, which is much better than average forecasts of +3.9% MoM and –3.5% YoY. In turn, investors are notably cautious amid continued growth in the incidence rate in the United States. California and Texas reported a record number of cases of coronavirus, which threatens the return of large-scale quarantine measures in the country. In addition, on July 4, the United States celebrates Independence Day, which could lead to another outbreak if the celebrations are not canceled.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is showing weak growth against USD during today's morning session, trying to consolidate above 1.2500. Yesterday, GBP managed to strengthen, continuing the uptrend of Tuesday, and almost completely ignored the weak statistics from the UK. According to the results of Q1 2020, UK GDP showed a decrease of 2.2% QoQ and 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of –2% QoQ and –1.6% YoY. Current Account in the UK for the same period showed a deficit of 21.1B pounds with a forecast of –15B pounds. Notable support for GBP is provided by quite tangible progress during negotiations between the UK and the EU. For the first time in a long period, a timid hope appeared that the parties would still come to a consensus and a trade deal would be concluded before the Brexit deadline at the end of the year.

    NZD/USD

    NZD continues moderate growth against USD, approaching another resistance near 0.6500. Support for the instrument is provided by not the strongest USD. Morbidity statistics worry investors, but they do not hurry into safe assets, believing that Europe, for example, has managed to cope with the coronavirus epidemic much better. China also creates a good background, where a new outbreak of disease was quickly taken under control. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Wednesday turned out to be moderately positive. ADP Employment Change report indicated an increase by 2369K, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 3000K. ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose sharply from 43.1 to 52.6 points with the forecast of 49.5 points. Markit Manufacturing PMI grew from 49.6 to 49.8 points with a neutral forecast.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows flat dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, developing correctional momentum formed when the instrument retreated from its local highs since June 9. Against the backdrop of alarming statistics about the increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus in the United States, investors prefer JPY to USD. In addition, it should be noted that there is still a demand for risk in the market now, partly due to good European statistics and hopes for a further recovery of the global economy. Today investors are focused on the publication of the June report on the US labor market. Traders are hoping for a noticeable improvement in key indicators, which will give an upward momentum to USD.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are consolidating this morning, having experienced a marked decline yesterday, when quotes retreated from their multi-year highs. The pressure on the instrument was provided by technical factors, as well as the redistribution of long positions in the market. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics on employment and business activity in the US manufacturing sector also contributed to the downtrend in gold, but the main indicators of the US economy will be released today.
     
  16. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    EUR/USD

    EUR shows a slight decline against USD during today's Asian session, developing flat trend in the short term. US macroeconomic statistics released yesterday allowed USD to recover in the afternoon and move away from local lows since June 24. Meanwhile, the released data cannot be called unambiguously positive. Nonfarm Payrolls in June grew by 4800K, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3000K. Unemployment Rate fell in June from 13.3% to 11.1%, which also turned out to be better than expectations of 12.3%. At the same time, the Average Hourly Earnings in June slowed down from +6.6% YoY to +5% YoY, while experts were counting on +5.3% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 26 increased by 1.427M applications, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of 1.355M.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is consolidating against USD at the end of the week, trading near 1.2450. The upward potential of the instrument turned out to be almost completely exhausted by the end of the week amid the publication of a large amount of interesting macroeconomic statistics from the USA. In addition, GBP is still under pressure from uncertain prospects regarding trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, despite a series of optimistic statements on both sides of the process. In turn, a more confident growth of USD is restrained against the background of alarming information about the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the United States. The country again shows a record growth rate of new cases, which may lead to returning to strict quarantine restrictions.

    AUD/USD

    AUD shows flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, trading near the previous local highs since June 24, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument slowed down somewhat yesterday against the background of the publication of moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Today, the instrument is supported by data from Australia and China. Retail Sales in Australia increased by 16.9% MoM in May after growth by 16.3% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected it to maintain the same growth rate. The Chinese Caixin Services PMI grew from 55 to 58.4 points in June, while forecasts predicted its decline to 49.9 points.

    USD/JPY

    USD is trading ambiguously against JPY during today's morning session, consolidating near 107.50. Traders continue to analyze the June statistics on the US labor market, released the day before. The steady increase in Nonfarm Payrolls and lower unemployment at the end of June were overshadowed by a further decrease in the dynamics of earnings growth and a high rate of Initial Jobless Claims. Support for JPY at the end of the week is provided by data on the Japanese Services PMI from Jibun Bank. In June, the index rose from 26.5 to 45 points, which turned out to be better than average market forecasts.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are once again consolidating in the market during today's Asian session. The day before, instrument showed moderate growth, despite the publication of a large number of positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In particular, investors were optimistic about the high rate of Nonfarm Payrolls in June. At the same time, the first attempts of the US economy to begin recovering are overshadowed by alarming information about the record increase in new patients with coronavirus in the country. It is quite likely that the US authorities will have to return part of the quarantine restrictions in order to reduce the intensity of the second wave of incidence, which will be extremely painful for the country's weakened economy.
     
  17. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, approaching the local highs of last Thursday. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by good macroeconomic statistics from Europe, published last Friday. Markit Services PMI in Germany rose in June from 45.8 to 47.3 points with a neutral forecast. Markit PMI Composite for the same period rose from 45.8 to 47 points, which also turned out to be better than the forecasts. Markit Services PMI in the eurozone grew from 47.3 to 48.3 points, while Markit PMI Composite rose from 47.5 to 48.5 points. In turn, pressure on USD is caused by disturbing news regarding the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the United States. Despite the record growth rate of new cases, the authorities are hesitant to return harsh quarantine measures, limiting themselves only to a number of local restrictions. In particular, President Donald Trump has not canceled a trip around the country, dedicated to the celebration of Independence Day.

    GBP/USD

    GBP is trading with an uptrend against USD this morning, developing a "bullish" signal formed last week. Investors began to buy GBP actively against the background of optimistic comments from officials who positively assessed the prospects of concluding a trade deal between the UK and the EU before the Brexit deadline at the end of the year. However, further growth of the instrument is hindered by the uncertainty that is inherent in many markets today. Today, investors are focused on business activity statistics from ISM in the USA. In the UK, Markit Construction PMI data for June will be published.

    NZD/USD

    NZD continues moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is testing the level of 0.6550, which is the highest since June 10. Demand for NZD remains quite high, given the overall recovery of the global economy. First of all, investors are optimistic about signals from China, while news from the USA, for example, remains alarming due to a sharp increase in the incidence of coronavirus. Some pressure on NZD at the beginning of the week was exerted by statistics from New Zealand. In June, ANZ Commodity Price Index decreased by 0.7% MoM after rising 1.1% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected zero dynamics.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.20% and is testing the level of 107.70 for a breakout. Moderate support for USD is still provided by data on the US labor market published last Thursday. Despite the fact that not all investors' expectations were met, the US economy is showing a fairly rapid recovery. In turn, traders are concerned about the rapid increase in new cases of coronavirus incidence in the United States. It is possible that in the near future, President Donald Trump will have to return part of the quarantine restrictions, which will negatively affect the pace of recovery in the US economy.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices show ambiguous dynamics of trading, located near the level of 1770.00. The instrument is supported by concerns about a new wave of coronavirus incidence in the world. First of all, investors are worried about the record dynamics in the USA. At the same time, a fairly large amount of positive macroeconomic statistics, including from the USA and China, enter the market, which increases the demand for risky assets and leads to a decrease in gold quotes. The instrument receives additional support from escalated geopolitical risks. In particular, the confrontation between the USA and China intensified again after Beijing passed the controversial bill on national security and began its implementation in Hong Kong.
     
  18. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    WTI Crude Oil: oil prices consolidate

    Current trend

    Today, during the Asian session, the price of oil shows ambiguous dynamics, trying to consolidate above the level of $40 per barrel. Quotes are supported by optimistic macroeconomic statistics, which indicate a gradual recovery of the global economy. In turn, alarming data on the surge in the incidence of coronavirus in the United States and several other countries are holding back the further growth of the instrument. Investors fear that a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic may lead to a decrease in demand for oil products, especially if states are forced to return part of the quarantine restrictions.

    On Tuesday, the market is focused on the publication of data from the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves for the week of July 3. The previous report reflected a sharp decrease by 8.156 million barrels, which significantly supported the instrument.

    Support and resistance

    On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing slightly. The price range changes slightly, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic has reversed near the level of 80 and is reflecting the development of a correctional decline in the ultra-short term.

    To open new trading positions, it is better to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

    Resistance levels: 40.97, 42.00, 43.00.
    Support levels: 40.00, 38.91, 37.36, 35.70.
     
  19. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR shows flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after the decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at local highs since June 23. On Tuesday, EUR almost completely ignored quite uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Industrial Production in May increased by 7.8% MoM after a decrease of 17.5% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 10% MoM. In annual terms, Industrial Production rate decreased by 19.3% YoY against the forecast of a decrease of 11.1% YoY. Today, European investors are focused on the speech of the ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, while in general no interesting publications are expected.

    GBP/USD

    GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's morning session, trading near the local highs of June 16, which the instrument managed to update the day before. GBP is supported by rumors of notable progress on the Brexit issue, but there is no official information yet. UK macroeconomic statistics published yesterday did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Halifax House Price Index in June showed an increase of 2.5% YoY/3M, slightly slowing down from the previous value of 2.6% YoY/3M. On a monthly basis, the index fell by 0.1% MoM after a decrease of 0.2% MoM in May. The indicator also was much better than its projected decrease of 0.9% MoM.

    AUD/USD

    AUD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session. The pair retreated from local highs under the influence of technical factors, as well as after some improvement in the statistics on incidence in the United States, which increased the attractiveness of USD. The minutes of the RBA meeting published yesterday were neutral. The regulator kept the key interest rate at the previous level of 0.25% as expected, while not reporting anything new in the follow-up statement. Macroeconomic statistics also turned out to be neutral. AiG Performance of Services Index went down from 31.6 to 31.5 points in June. No interesting publications are expected in Australia and the USA today.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a flat trend in the short term. JPY is moderately supported by Japanese statistics today. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook in June showed an increase from 36.5 to 44 points with a forecast of a decrease to 24.1 points. Eco Watchers Survey Current for the same period strengthened from 15.5 to 38.8 points, which also turned out to be noticeably better than market expectations of 21.1 points. Bank Lending in June grew by 6.2% YoY after an increase of 4.8% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 7.2% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Gold prices are consolidating after the next update of multi-year highs at yesterday's trading. The asset has risen in price in response to investor concern over the growing number of new cases of coronavirus incidence. Among other things, India, which is one of the largest consumers of gold, attracted attention. The situation in the United States is also worrying, but recently there has been some stabilization of dynamics, which has provoked corrective growth of USD across almost the entire spectrum of the market.
     
  20. MikhailLF

    MikhailLF

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    Morning Market Review

    EUR/USD

    EUR has shown steady growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs since June 11. The instrument adds about 0.34% and is testing the level of 1.1370 for a breakout. EUR is supported by the positive sentiment of investors, who positively assess the growth rate of the eurozone economy and expect new fiscal measures from the Fed in response to the rapid growth of new cases of coronavirus incidence in the United States. In the medium to long term, traders expect testing of 1.1500 if the situation does not change significantly. Today, European investors are focused on the data from Germany on the dynamics of imports and exports in May, as well as information on the country's trade balance for the same period.

    GBP/USD

    GBP continues moderate growth against USD this morning, updating local highs since June 16. Despite the increase in demand for USD in response to the worsening situation with the incidence of coronavirus in the world, GBP remains positive, expecting significant progress on the Brexit issue and the conclusion of a trade agreement with the EU by the end of the year. Today, investors are expecting the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of the US labor market. It is expected that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 3 will fall below 1.400M, which, however, can hardly be considered a truly optimistic result.

    NZD/USD

    NZD shows an uptrend against USD during today's Asian session, updating record highs since the end of January and again preparing to test the level of 0.6600 for a breakout. Statistics from New Zealand and China provide moderate support for the instrument today. ANZ Business Confidence in June rose from –34.4 to –29.8 points, which turned out to be quite close to the forecast of most analysts. The Chinese Consumer Price Index showed a decline of 0.1% MoM in June after falling 0.8% MoM in May. Experts expected to see zero dynamics of the indicator. In annual terms, inflation in June accelerated from +2.4% YoY to +2.5% YoY.

    USD/JPY

    USD shows flat dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating after a moderate decline the day before, provoked by the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese data released today also provided moderate support for the yen. Machinery Orders in May grew by 1.7% MoM after a decrease of 12% MoM a month earlier. Experts expected the negative dynamics to remain at the level of –5.4% MoM. In annual terms, the dynamics of orders improved from –17.7% YoY to –16.3% YoY with a forecast of –17.1% YoY.

    XAU/USD

    Gold is trading in the green zone during today's Asian session, remaining in the area of record highs, updated the day before. As before, support for the instrument is provided by fears of a sharp increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, which may push countries to return to quarantine restrictions. The dynamics in the United States is of particular concern, as the rates there remain the highest in the world, and so far the number of infected people has exceeded 3 million.
     
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