Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: NZD/USD: the downward tendency remains

Current trend

NZD consolidated in a downward trend against USD after a long-term growth in the second half of 2017.
The pair is rapidly declining amid growing investment appeal to the oversold USD. It is worth noting that NZD also loses support from investors the more after each new level of support is taken over. Yesterday, the pair reached a new local minimum for the last month, the mark of 0.7180, after which it moved to the stage of an upward correction.
Today, one should not expect high volatility in the pair due to the lack of important macroeconomic data.

Support and resistance

After a significant fall in the pair in February, one can safely say about a break in the uptrend and the emergence of a downward trend. At the moment, one can determine the borders of the descending channel and open short positions on the peaks of upward corrections. In the medium term, the pair is expected to decline to key support levels of 0.7130, 0.7110.
Technical indicators changed direction on H4 chart: MACD indicates the continuation of the pair's decline, the volume of short positions remains high, and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7130, 0.7110, 0.7070, 0.7000, 0.6930, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7275, 0.7290, 0.7310, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from levels of 60.7250, 0.7275 with targets at 0.7130, 0.7110 and the stop-loss at 0.7275.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Last week, AUD weakened to its main competitors due to the indecisiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%, although investors have long been waiting for active action amid tightening of monetary policy by the banks of Canada, Great Britain and, of course, the Fed. Interestingly, the economic situation in Australia also contributes to higher rates: last year, inflation was near the target level of 2.0%, and the unemployment rate for the same period declined steadily, reaching a mark of 5.5%. Nevertheless, the RBA considers the current economic indicators are not enough.
Additional pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the RBA head Philip Lowe, who said that raising interest rates by several central banks does not mean that Australia will also automatically follow this path.

Support and resistance

The price is trying to start an upward correction and is currently at the key mark of 0.7812 (the middle line of Murrey range [4/8]). Consolidating above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7934 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 0.8056 (Murrey [6/8]). In the breakdown to the level of 0.7812, the decline may continue to the levels of 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7568 (Murrey [2/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is in the negative zone forming the buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold zone.
Support levels: 0.7812, 0.7690, 0.7568.
Resistance levels: 0.7934, 0.8056.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 0.7812 mark from 0.7860 mark with targets of 0.7934, 0.8056 and the stop-loss at 0.7810. Short positions may be opened from 0.7765 mark with targets of 0.7690, 0.7568 and the stop-loss at 0.7815.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: the upward correction can begin

Current trend

In the beginning of the week Brent price grew to the level of 64.00 but now returned to the area of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]). The market is under pressure of US shale oil producers, which can decrease in the nearest future due to the fall of oil prices to the levels, less profitable for production expanding (the area of 60.00–64.00). The possible decrease of shale oil sector activity is confirmed by recent Baker Hughes report. In the USA the oil rig number significantly increased (by 26 to 791) but in Canada, it is going down (by 13 to 221). US number can possibly decrease this week, which will cause the correction of the instrument.

Support and resistance

The technical picture reflects the possibility of growth. The price is near the strong support level of 62.50 on the border of Murray ([0/8]) range. If the price is set below it, the instrument can decrease to the levels of 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 59.37 (Murray [–2/8]). However, as Stochastic has reversed in the oversold area, the correction to the levels of 64.06 (Murray [1/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) is possible.
Resistance levels: 64.06, 65.62, 67.12.
Support levels: 62.50, 60.93, 59.37.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 63.28 with the targets at 64.06, 65.62 and stop loss at around 62.20.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 62.00 with the targets at 60.93, 59.37 and stop loss at around 62.50.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for statistics

Current trend

This week the pair was growing and increased by 0.98%, reached the level of 1.2390.
Today the investors are waiting for a block of US statistics to be published, the key one is January CPI release, which is expected to be mixed and can cause great volatility in the market. The MoM index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, but the YoY one is supposed to decrease below the target level, from 2.1% to 1.9%, moreover, the core index can decrease from 1.8% to 1.7%. Earlier a number of FOMC members expressed concern about the insufficient inflation growth, which can lead to a slowing of interest rate growth. The recent correction of US stock market also affects the regulator negatively. However, the new head of Fed is optimistic: on Thursday, he stated that the regulator would monitor the situation but would keep the slight tightening of the monetary policy trend, as the slight normalization of the interest rate policy and a balance was developing.
Today the USD can be under pressure due to Q4 EU GDP release (the growth from 2.6% to 2.7% is expected) and US January Retail Sales data (can decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%).

Support and resistance

The price is around 1.2330 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). The further growth of the price, confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed upwards, can develop to the levels of 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.2500. The breakdown of 1.2330 will let the price return to last week lows at the area of 1.2200 (Murray [4/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2450, 1.2500.
Support levels: 1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2300 with the targets at 1.2450, 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2260.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2330 with the targets at 1.2270, 1.2200 and stop loss at around 1.2360.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: XAG/USD: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price tests the bottom of the Murray channel at the level of 16.79 ([3/8]), strengthened by the descending middle line of Bollinger Bands. Its breakout and the continuation of the increase to the levels of 17.18 ([4/8]) and 17.57 ([5/8], upper Bollinger Bands) are possible, but a rollback to 16.40 ([2/8]), 16.00 ([1/8]) and 15.62 ([0/8]) marks is possible as well.
It should be noted that the indicators do not give a clear signal. Stochastic is close to the overbought zone, which is fraught with a reverse, and MACD histogram can go to the positive zone and form a buy signal in the near future.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 16.40 ([2/8]), 16.00 ([1/8]), 15.62 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 16.79 ([3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 17.18 ([4/8]), 17.57 ([5/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands).

Trading tips

In this situation, buy positions should be opened only when the instrument is consolidated above the 16.79 mark from the level of 16.95 with targets of 17.18 and 17.57 and the stop-loss at 16.80. Short positions may be opened from the level of 16.65 with targets at 16.40, 16.00 and stop-loss at 16.78.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week Brent prices grew to of the level 65.00, supported by the statement of Saudi Arabia Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who noted that OPEC and oil exporting countries should decrease the oil production further even after the market was balanced or the deficit appeared. The investors are also inspired by the news that OPEC and Russia are planning to continue the partnership after the end of OPEC+ Agreement.
The experts say that now in Saudi Arabia the acceptable level of the price is 70 USD per barrel instead of 60 due to the implementation of the large modernization program Vision 2030, which supposes diversification and decrease of the Saudi Arabian dependence from the oil sector. In particular, the state oil company Saudi Aramco will be gone IPO. However, the financial “airbag” for the reformation period is not formed yet.
Shale oil producers, as usual, has brought the main negative to the “black gold” market. Unexpectedly, US oil rig number has grown again (by 7 units to 798). The production is increasing, too, during the last week it went up to 10.271 million barrel per day, the next growth can cause another correction of the prices.

Support and resistance

The price is around 64.80 (Murray [3/8] H4, Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and can grow to the levels of 65.62 (Murray [2/8]) and 66.40 (Murray [5/8] H4, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). However, the consolidation of the price below the level of 64.00 (Murray [1/8]) can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [0/8]) and 60.93 (Murray [–1/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%).
Resistance levels: 65.62, 66.40, 67.18.
Support levels: 64.00, 62.50, 60.93.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 65.10 with the targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop loss around 64.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 64.00 with the target at 62.50 and stop loss around 64.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is corrected downwards from the area of 0.7446 ([+2/8]) and can return into the borders of the main trading Murray range. In case of breakdown of the level of 0.7324 ([8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) the price can decrease to the level of 0.7200 ([6/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands), which is confirmed by Stochastic leaving the overbought area. In addition, MACD histogram has the sighs of divergence with the price chart. If the price is set above the level of 0.7446, the growth to the level of 0.7558 ([6/8] W1, the area of the last July highs).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7446 ([+2/8]), 0.7568 ([6/8] W1).
Support levels: 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7342 with the target at 0.7200 and stop loss at around 0.7380.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.7446 with the target at 0.7568 and stop loss at around 0.7390.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth of unemployment affect the pound negatively

Current trend

This week the pair was trading within the sideways channel of 1.4038–1.3916.
Today the instrument weakened to the lower border of the channel due to December growth of the UK unemployment level from 4.3% to 4.4%. Earlier the marked was hoping for soon stimulus decrease by the regulator. In January, UK CPI stayed on the same level 3.0% YoY, despite the expectations. This inspired the investors that Bank of England will have to increase the interest rate in the nearest future. However, the current state of the employment market can make the officials refrain from this step. Average Earnings including Bonus stayed on the same level of 2.5%, and Average Earnings excluding Bonus grew from 2.3% to 2.5%. In the evening BOE's Governor Carney speech can bring the volatility to the pair.
In the long term, the pound is under pressure of further UK and EU relationship. The parties are trying to bargain for concessions. On Friday, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in the conference in Munich stated that the current UK position excluded any preferences in the trading between UK and EU.

Support and resistance

The price is trading around the lower border of the trading range 1.3916 (Murray [4/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands), which is key for “bears”. The breakdown will let the instrument reach the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3672 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout of the key level of 1.4038 can cause the growth to the levels of 1.4100 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]). Technical indicators reflect the possibility of decrease; Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.4038, 1.4100, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3672.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3672 and stop loss 1.3960.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.4038 with the targets at 1.4100, 1.4160 and stop loss 1.3990.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex:XAU/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is trying to grow from the level of 1328.13 ([5/8]), but it is under pressure of the middle line of Bollinger Bands from behind. The key “bullish” level is 1343.75 ([6/8]), the breakout of it will let the price grow to the levels of 1359.38 ([5/8], the upper border of Bollinger Bands) and 1375.00 ([8/8]).
After the consolidation of the price below the level of 1328.13 ([5/8]) it will return within the central Murray channel and can fall to the area of 1312.50 ([4/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) and 1296.88 ([5/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a clear signal; Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone. Stochastic has reversed upwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1343.75 ([6/8]), 1359.38 ([7/8]), 1375.00 ([8/8]).
Support levels: 1328.13 ([5/8]), 1312.50 ([4/8]), 1296.88 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1328.13 or after the reversal at the level of 1343.75 with the targets at 1312.50, 1296.88 and stop loss 1335.00 and 1347.00 correspondingly.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1343.75 with the targets at 1359.38, 1375.00 and stop loss at 1338.00.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex:WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Today WTI oil prices are trying to grow to the level of 62.50.
The price is supported by the last API report, which reflected the growth of US oil resources by 0.933 million barrel, and gas resources by 1.910 million barrel. In the evening, the market is waiting for the corresponding EIA report, which can push the price upwards (the growth of resources by 2.077 million barrel is expected).
However, the general situation in the market is mixed. OPEC officials claim that it would rebalance soon and that OPEC+ Agreement is effective, however, the volumes of US shale “black gold” production and sales are growing. Last week the oil export from the USA, according to EIA, exceeded 2 million barrel per day. All the facts are the treats to the further growth of the prices and cause negative reaction of exporting countries. The head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo plans to dine with U.S. shale company executives next week in Houston. They are expected to negotiate upon shale oil sector limitation in order to keep the prices at the level of 60–70 USD per barrel. The value was mentioned as desired by Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih.

Support and resistance

The price is trying to grow to the level of 62.50 (Murray [8/8]) and can reach the levels of 64.06 (Murray [+2/8]), 65.62 (Murray [+1/8] W1). The level of 62.50 (Murray [8/8]) is the key “bearish” level, the breakdown of it will let the price fall to the levels of 60.93 (Murray [6/8]) and 59.37 (Murray [4/8], [7/8] W1). However, the further growth is more possible, as Stochastic is ready to leave the oversold area.
Resistance levels: 63.28, 64.06, 65.62.
Support levels: 62.50, 61.72, 60.93.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 64.06, 65.62, and stop loss 62.10.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 62.50 with the target at 60.93 and stop loss around 62.80.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex:XAU/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price has weakened below the central line of Murray range 1312.50 ([4/8]) and can decrease further to the area of 1296.88 ([5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands for W1), which is confirmed by the downward reversal of Bollinger Bands and MACD histogram enter into the negative zone. However, as Stochastic is in the oversold area, the instrument can reverse and enter the correction to the levels of 1328.13 ([5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1343.75 ([6/8], [7/8] for W1).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1312.50 ([4/8]), 1328.13 ([5/8]), 1343.75 ([6/8]).
Support levels: 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1281.25 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1312.50 with the targets at 1328.13, 1343.75 and stop loss 1307.00.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1306.00 with the targets at 1296.88, 1281.25 and stop loss 1312.00.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex:NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is set around the level of 0.7200 ([6/8]), which it has reached after the 2-week decrease.
The breakdown of it will let the price fall to the levels of 0.7141 ([5/8]) and 0.7080 ([4/8]). Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, and MACD histogram entered the negative zone, which confirms the assumption. Also, there are signs of the formation of the “twin peaks” figure, which is a reversal model of trend and reflects the decrease of the instrument.

On the other hand, Stochastic is leaving the oversold area, which can afford the development of the upward correction. After the breakout of the level of 0.7263 ([7/8]), the price can grow to the levels of 0.7324 ([8/8]) and 0.7385 ([+1/8]).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7263 ([7/8]), 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7385 ([+1/8]).
Support levels: 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7200 with the targets at 0.7141, 0.7080 and stop loss 0.7230.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7263 with the targets at 0.7324, 0.7385 and stop loss 0.7225.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex:GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair grew and has now reached the level of 1.3885, increased by 0.66%.
The market reacted positively to Friday’s speech of UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who noted that none of the Brexit parties would receive all it wanted, but the deal can be made. She also voices a range of British trading offers, including the implementation of an independent arbitral tribunal on trade disputes to replace European court. UK Markit Services PMI release was strong. In February the indicator grew from 53.0 to 54.5 points.
The further movement depends on Friday’s releases of UK January industrial production data and US February employment market statistics.

Support and resistance

The price is now tending to the key level of 1.3916 (the middle of the Murray trading range [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1. In case if its breakout the instrument can grow to the levels of 1.3977 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.4038 (Murray [6/8]). Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 1.3793 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 1.3732 (Murray [1/8], the lower border of Bollinger Bands) is possible. However, the growth seems likely, as Bollinger Bands have reversed upwards, and MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.3855, 1.3793, 1.3732.
Resistance levels: 1.3916, 1.3977, 1.4038.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3916 with the targets at 1.3977, 1.4038 and stop loss 1.3880.
Short positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3855 with the targets at 1.3793, 1.3732 and stop loss 1.3880.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex:EUR/USD: upward trend strengthens

Current trend

EUR again dominates against the dollar.
After a significant correction from the local maximum of 1.2555, the euro dropped to the level of 1.2150, but, failing to consolidate below this level, the pair fought back and headed up. Since March 1, EUR has significantly strengthened. The main catalysts for growth were a decrease in demand for the dollar and a favorable fundamental background for the Eurozone.
Today, the upward momentum remained on the confirmation of the forecasts for the growth rates of the Eurozone for Q4 2017. At the end of this week, attention should be paid to the US labor market and trade balance. The fastest reaction of the pair may be to data on Nonfarm Payrolls and on unemployment in the US.

Support and resistance

In the short term, the upward trend remains: the pair can grow up to the level of 1.2500 or to the local maximum of February (1.2555). In the future, much will depend on the trading moods, which will be formed in view of fundamental releases, mainly from the United States. In the case of weak data on the change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural industries and the unemployment rate, the dollar will lose significantly in investor support. The main scenario is the formation of an upward wave with a target of 1.2555 and a high probability of testing new highs.
Technical indicators confirm the outlook: MACD shows a quick growth in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands are pointing up.
Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2290, 1.2280, 1.2225, 1.2175, 1.2150.
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2520, 1.2535, 1.2555, 1.2585, 1.2630, 1.2700.

Trading tips

In this situation, long positions may be opened with targets at 1.2555, 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2330.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing its strong resistance in the overbought zone. The Composite is forming a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 5265.0 (November 2017 lows), 5230.0 (August 2017 highs), 5170.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 5375.0 (local highs), 5425.0 (local highs), 5450.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a high chance of a downward reverse.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 5265.0 with targets at 5230.0, 5170.0 and stop-loss at 5305.0.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5375.0 with targets at 5425.0, 5450.0 and stop-loss at 5340.0.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Today Brent Crude Oil is trying to recover after falling to 64.00 mark on Monday.
The instrument was pressured by the EIA report, according to which the volume of shale oil production in the US will continue to grow: in March, it could increase to 6.82 million barrels per day, and in April –to 6.95 million barrels. New wells drilling is growing, too (by 110 units in February), which may create further expansion of production.
Long-term pressure on the market can be exerted by the actual failure of negotiations between OPEC representatives and US shale companies during the CERAWeek. According to Bijan Zangeneh from Iran the situation is so serious that the cartel may start withdrawal from the OPEC+ agreement at the June meeting. This emergency measure should help limit the shale boom in the US and allow traditional exporters to maintain their market share.

Support and resistance

The instrument is in the midline of Bollinger Bands around 64.50. Investors are waiting for the publication of API report on US oil reserves. In case of an increase, quotes can go down to 63.28 (Murrey [1/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 62.50 (Murrey [0/8]) marks. Otherwise, the targets for growth will be the 65.62 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 66.40 (Murrey [5/8]) marks.
Indicators illustrate the uncertainty of the market. Bollinger Bands are located horizontally. MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is reversing downwards.
Support levels: 64.06, 63.28, 62.50.
Resistance levels: 64.84, 65.62, 66.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 64.84 with targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop-loss at 64.30.
Short positions will become relevant below 64.06 with targets at 63.28 and 62.50 and stop-loss at 64.50.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Thursday US dollar weakened and reached the level of 1.2410 (+0.58%).
American currency is under pressure of US poor inflation data. In February CPI decreased from 0.5% to 0.2% MoM, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy fell from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM. The YoY CPI Ex Food & Energy, which determines Fed’s interest rate decision, stayed on the level of 1.8%. All the factors can make the regulator postpone the tightening of monetary policy.
The investors are concerned about the resignation of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and assignment of Michael Pompeo to this post. The change is possibly made as a preparation for the trading war with China, as Pompeo supports Trump in this question actively. According to Reuters, the US administration is considering the implementation of fees on the Chinese goods amounting around 60 billion USD per year.
Today the pair is in the downward correction after commentaries of Mario Draghi, who again noted that ECB policy would stay the same until the inflation reached the target level. EU Industrial Production data also affected the euro negatively. In January the index went down by 1.0%. Today the market is focused on US Retail Sales release, which is expected to be strong and strengthen USD.

Support and resistance

The price is now tending to the level of 1.2329 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of which will let the instrument decrease to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2207 (Murray [5/8]). The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2400 will let the price grow to the area of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.2512 (Murray [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2451, 1.2512.
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2268, 1.2207.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2329 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2207 and stop loss at у 1.2370.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop loss at 1.2380.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

On Wednesday, the pair was trading near the level of 1.3977, but today it is making an attempt to decrease, having lowered to 1.3916 mark.
USD is strengthening in view of a possible easing of banking regulation in the US. Dodd-Frank Act was adopted in 2010 after the global financial crisis. It significantly restricted the trading of banks in the stock market, banned investing in hedge funds more than 3% of bank's capital, and trading in the foreign exchange market. A new bill, approved by the Senate, allows banks with assets of less than USD 10 billion to trade on the exchange using their own funds. In addition, banks with a capital capacity of more than USD 250 billion will be subject to strict supervision (rather than current USD 50 billion) .
The political crisis between Britain and Russia did not affect the market, because the volume of trade between the countries is insignificant.

Support and resistance

Now the instrument tends to 1.3916 mark (the middle of Murrey commercial range [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), which seems to be key. If it breaks down, the decline may continue to the levels of 1.3793 (Murrey [2/8], H4) and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). In case of a price rebound and consolidation above 1.3977 mark, growth may resume to the levels of 1.4038 (Murrey [6/8], H4) and 1.4160 (Murrey [2/8]).
The possibility of a decrease is more probable, as Stochastic is reversing down in the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.
Resistance levels: 1.3977, 1.4038, 1.4160.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 1.3916 mark with targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3960.
After the breakout of 1.3977 mark long positions may be opened with targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop-loss at 1.3940.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is falling towards the strong level of 105.46 ([–1/8]), which it has been testing unsuccessfully during the last year. The consolidation of the price below it can let the price decrease further to the area of 104.68 ([-2/8]) and 103.90 ([-2/8], H4). The key “bullish” level is 106.25 ([0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of it will let the instrument grow to the area of 107.80 ([2/8]) 108.60 ([3/8]). Technical indicators reading are mixed. On the one hand, Bollinger Bands confirms the long-term downward trend. However, the decrease of MACD in the negative zone and the strength of the level 105.46 reflect the possibility of reversal and the upward correction of the price. In general, the position should be opened with care.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 105.46 ([–1/8]), 104.68 ([–2/8]), 103.90 ([–2/8], H4).
Resistance levels: 106.25 ([0/8]), 107.80 ([2/8]), 108.60 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around of the level 105.46 or above the level of 106.26 with the targets at 107.80, 108.60 and stop loss 105.10 and 105.90 correspondingly.
Short positions can be opened only if the price is set below the level of 105.46 with the targets at 104.68, 103.90 and stop loss at у 105.80.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Friday’s US building market data were poor. In February, Building Permits indicator decreased from 1.377 million до 1.298 million, and Housing Starts fell from 1.329 million to 1.236 million. However, thanks to the positive US Industrial Production index, which increased by 1.1% in February, USD closed the week in a green zone and reached the level of 1.2260 against EUR.
Today the price grew to the level of 1.2298, but no significant movement of the pair is expected in the nearest future. The market is waiting for Fed’s interest rate decision and especially for the new head of the regulator Jerome Powell’s following commentaries. At the end of February in his speech in Congress, he gave some hints that the interest rate could be increased four times this year instead of three times due to the economic growth, which exceeded the expectations. However, the recent poor data (the growth of unemployment by 4.1% and the decrease of CPI from 0.5% to 0.2%) may make him change his mind.

Support and resistance

Technically the price entered the middle Murray channel and decreased below the level of 1.2329 ([5/8]). It can fall further to the levels of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2150. However, Stochastic is trying to reverse in the oversold area and can form a buy signal in the nearest future. In this case, the price can grow to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [6/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.2329 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss at 1.2290.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2260 with the targets at 1.2207, 1.2150 and stop loss at around 1.2290.