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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.08.2015



Today is the big and long expected day for the British pound, called by many media the “Super Thursday” At noon London time the Bank of England will release its August interest rate decision together with the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting and new economic forecast.

This will be a new communication format, as all the elements are released at the same time. At 12:45 pm London time Mark Carney, BOE governor will hold a press conference.

Even though the interest rate is not expected to be increased this time, remaining at 0.5% which is in place since 2009, the policy tone is to be shifted. This will significantly intensify the high impact event.

The Governor Mark Carney has mentioned earlier that the rotation of the year will be the right time to start raising rates. Hence, the most likely we will see the rise in February 2016, which will be marked as a turning point.

It is important to follow the major points of the today’s event. Firstly the MPC voting is projected to change this time from the unanimous decision to hold the interest rates, voted for the last 7 months. This time the economists seeing at least two out of nine members to vote in favour of the increase.

Secondly, inflation forecasts will play a role of the future key guide. Changes regarding the medium-term outlook relative to the 2% target will be the main signal to reveal whether tighter or looser monetary policy will be required.

Wage growth rate will be an important component of today’s meeting. According to the latest statistics, the pay is rising at the fastest annual velocity during the last five years. That could be an alarm bell about the inflationary pressure in the labour market. On the other hand, some analytics count that’s the pace is not enough for the interest rate hike.

The language of the MPC Minutes will require a close observation also. For example the July’s minutes had a new line, which was reading as follows: “For a number of members, the balance of risks to medium-term inflation relative to the 2 per cent target was becoming more skewed to the upside at the current level of bank rate.”

One of the factors that could deter the enthusiasm about the rate increase could be the situation in Greece, which is still unresolved.

GBPUSD remains to range within 1.5670 – 1.5530 corridor in the expectation of the event. High volatility on all British Pound pairs should be anticipated this afternoon.



EURUSD

0608EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1008

Target 2: 1.0802

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.1125






GBPUSD

0608GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5695

Target 2: 1.5507

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY

0608USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.47

Target 2: 124.23

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6240

Daily control level: 124.45





USDCHF

0608USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9868

Target 2: 0.9708

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

0608USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3274

Target 2: 1.3078

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

0608AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7441

Target 2: 0.7269

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.7260



GOLD

0608GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1101.47

Target 2: 1067.81

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.830

Daily control level: 1105.00





OIL

0608BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.58

Target 2: 48.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4630

Daily control level: 55.50



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.08.2015




Bank of England has displayed yesterday no urgency to raise interest rates, making it clear that the earliest increase could be expected not earlier than in 2016.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 1-0-8 in favour of holding the interest rate at the current level of 0.5%. This move surprised the investors as it was lower than the projections, according to which at least two members were expected to vote in favour of the hike.

The Britain’s economic recovery continues with the wages increasing faster in the recent months and the overall job market improving. Nevertheless, the inflation level is still significantly lower than the target 2% and is at the moment one of the major obstacles to proceed with the tightening measures.

“We are clearly closer to the time at which rates may have to go up, but that does not mean we’re fixing some particular point in the future”, Ben Broadbent, Bank of England Deputy Governor said in his interview yesterday.

“As I saw it, I didn’t think there was any urgency to raise interest rates right now,” he continued.

Yesterday, the Bank of England broke with the tradition and combined the set of the MPC’s rates decision, the minutes of the meeting, and its quarterly inflation report, alongside Bank governor Mark Carney’s regular press conference together.

The inflation report has downgraded the near-term inflation forecast after the drop in the prices of oil has resumed. The Bank now expects inflation to remain around zero for the next two months, with the rise to the targeted 2% expected gradually to be reached in two- year time.



EURUSD

0708EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1024

Target 2: 1.0820

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.1125




GBPUSD

0708GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5612

Target 2: 1.5412

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY

0708USDJPYH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.36

Target 2: 124.10

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.627

Daily control level: 124.45





USDCHF

0708USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9885

Target 2: 0.9727

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 0.9710





USDCAD

0708USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3107

Target 2: 1.3008

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

0708AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7426

Target 2: 0.7258

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 0.7260





GOLD

0708GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1101.47

Target 2: 1067.81

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.530

Daily control level: 1105.00





OIL

0708BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.56

Target 2: 48.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.449

Daily control level: 55.50



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.08.2015




It is hoped that the final deal between Greece and its international creditors will be concluded by tomorrow, as the negotiations on the final bailout programme are currently underway.

Greek finance and economy ministers are being in the final steps of negotiations with the creditors’ delegates currently. It was previously said that the final agreement is expected to be reached by August 18, with the final date now moved closer.

“Efforts are being made to conclude the negotiations. The horizon is by Monday night or early Tuesday,” – a Greek official in the interview to Reuters news agency was quoted.

“When the new bailout comes to parliament for a vote it will be one bill with two articles – one article will be the loan agreement, the Memorandum of understanding and the second article will be the prior actions,” he continued.

At the moment, for institutions are negotiating the 86 billion euro deal with Greece – The International Monetary Fund, the European Central bank, European Commission and the European Stability Mechanism and there is a confidence that the agreement will be reached shortly. The indebted country needs additional liquidity in order to support its banking system and make payments on its obligations.

There are still some questions remained to agree though. The final amount of the third bailout program, the Greece’s third in the last five years should be evaluated. There are also some discrepancies regarding the country’s reforms, which need to be worked out so the fresh funds could be released.

The impending amount of 3.2 billion euro is due to the European Central Bank on August 20, therefore the solution needs to be found shortly. The situation, nevertheless, is not pressing for an immediate solution as previously it was previously the case. The reason is that there are still additional 5 billion euros available for the Greece to borrow from a European fund.

Greek stock exchange has declined for more than 15% during the last week of reopening, after being shut since June 29.



EURUSD

1008EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1062

Target 2: 1.0864

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.1125



GBPUSD

1008GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5592

Target 2: 1.5384

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.5670





USDJPY

1008USDJPYH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.80

Target 2: 123.48

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.660

Daily control level: 124.45




USDCHF

1008USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9896

Target 2: 0.9734

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

1008USDCADH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3222

Target 2: 1.3012

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

1008AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7494

Target 2: 0.7328

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.7260




GOLD

1008GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1109.13

Target 2: 1079.75

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.69

Daily control level: 1105.00



OIL

1008BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.38

Target 2: 47.42

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4764

Daily control level: 55.50



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.08.2015



After the through the night negotiations the final deal on the Greece’s bailout assistance was concluded. The agreement will keep the country in the Eurozone and avoid its bankruptcy.

“An agreement has been reached. Some minor details are being discussed right now,” a Greek government official stated in an interview to reporters, after 18 hours consuming negotiations with the country’s international creditors represented by the ECB, International Monetary Fund, the European commission and the European Stability mechanism rescue fund.

The details of the agreement have not yet been made public, and there is a possibility that the final amount of the financial assistance could exceed the initially indicated 86 billion euro.

The primary budget deficit target was agreed at 0.25 percent of the gross domestic product this year, and 0.5 percent of the primary surplus for 2016, 1.75 percent for 2017 and 3.5 percent surplus in 2018.

Furthermore, additional issues on conducting privatizations and handling non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector were also agreed on.

Greece needs a quick release of the funds in order to settle a 3.2 billion euro of the bond repayment due to the European Central bank on August 20, which will now proceed smoothly.

Besides, Athens hopes to receive 20 billion euro urgently, which is needed to support the country’s weakened banking system.

Another 12 billion euro of the total amount will be allocated for the debt repayments with 5.3 billion euro in payments will be going to the state suppliers.

Following the agreement, Greek parliament will have to approve the measures required by the international creditors, which should be made before the meeting of the euro-area finance ministers this Friday.



EURUSD

1108EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1122

Target 2: 1.0914

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.1125


GBPUSD

1108GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5699

Target 2: 1.5481

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY

1108USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.29

Target 2: 123.93

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.677

Daily control level: 124.45




USDCHF

1108USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9918

Target 2: 0.9752

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

1108USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3113

Target 2: 1.2885

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.2910




AUDUSD

1108AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.7500

Target 2: 0.7322

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7260



GOLD

1108GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1109.50

Target 2: 1088.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.33

Daily control level: 1105.00






OIL

1108BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 52.38

Target 2: 49.26

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5600

Daily control level: 55.50



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.08.2015




Chinese Yuan continued to depreciate, extending yesterday’s losses after the People’ Bank of China weakened the currency for the second day in the row. The Yuan price declined against the 6.1162 on Monday to a four-year low of 6.4392 in Shanghai.

The PBOC presented this change as an attempt for a free market reform, where the market forces will have more influence on determining the currency value.

The Chinese currency devaluation was a made after the set of disappointing economic data was published and as some analysts believe, could serve as a beginning to the longer-term slide in the exchange rate.

The rapid drop to around 4 percent in Chinese currency affected the markets worldwide, as investors fearing the further economic slump and are looking to switch their funds to safe-haven government debt. Meanwhile, the demand for the riskier assets is diminishing, with the equities, currencies and commodities experiencing a downward pressure.

It is feared that the Chinese government action will lead to the currency wars deepening when other countries’ Central Banks could potentially follow suit and weaken their currencies.

Asian stocks and emerging market currencies have tumbled this morning while MSCI’s Asia-pacific index fell to two-year low.

The currencies of the economies associated especially close to the Chinese economy suffered hardest blow. The Australian Dollar has reached a new low against the US Dollar of 0.7214 this morning, being the pair’s six-year low.

Brent Oil continued to tumble as it was trading below 49.50 support at the European session opening.

S&P 500 index, based on the market capitalization of 500 large US companies has been declining for the second day in the row, bouncing off the 2100.00 level yesterday and now trading around 2063.00 mark.

US Dollar index continued on the way down as well, after forming a double top pattern on the daily chart last week. It has now slid below 96.80 level.

The Common European currency, however, has strengthened for the third consecutive day, after the final deal between Greece and its International creditors was arranged yesterday in the morning.



EURUSD

1208EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1148

Target 2: 1.0934

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.1125




GBPUSD

1208GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5671

Target 2: 1.5469

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5670




USDJPY

1208USDJPYH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 125.83

Target 2: 124.39

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7188

Daily control level: 123.70




USDCHF

1208USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9966

Target 2: 0.9792

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

1208USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3230

Target 2: 1.2996

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

1208AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7393

Target 2: 0.7207

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.7425



GOLD

1208GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UP

Target 1: 1124.58

Target 2: 1092.46

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.064

Daily control level: 1077.00



OIL

1208BRENTH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.57

Target 2: 48.21

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.678

Daily control level: 55.50



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.08.2015



This evening the Greek Parliament is due to assemble for an emergency session to approve the country’s third bailout agreement, concluded with the international creditors on Tuesday. The timing of the event is still uncertain.

The activation of the deal will mean the Greece will be giving most of its sovereignty to the creditors, represented by the IMF, the ECB and the European Commission.

The 29 pages of the new agreement, among the others, quotes the following: “The (Greek) government commits to consult and agree with the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund on all actions relevant for the achievement of the objectives of the memorandum of understanding before these are finalised and legally adopted.”

The arrangement will also induce the major reforms in pension and taxation systems, as well as in health and welfare sectors. Privatizations of the public properties will be extended significantly.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras remains positive that the deal will be approved, however, he has certain doubts whether all eurozone members will agree to it.

“Despite the obstacles that some are trying to put before us, I’m optimistic we will reach the agreement and loan support from the European mechanism, which will put a final end to economic uncertainty,” Tsipras was quoted referring to the 86 billion euro deal during a visit to the Ministry of economics.

Germany, among a few more European states, remains sceptical regarding the matter. Even though it considers the deal goes in the right direction it is not yet ready to say whether it was prepared for a vote in the Bundestag.

Before the deal goes to Bundestag, it has to be approved by the Greek Parliament, which should be completed by the early hours of the Friday morning. As the ruling party Syriza has the opposition party support, the confidence that the bill will pass is very high.

The approval of the deal will likely to bring the dissolution of the Syriza and forming a new party as soon as this autumn since the disagreements within the party are widening. Syriza MP Costas Isichos said the vote would lead to an “immediate divorce.”

“We are facing major political developments where the ‘no’ front will take shape,” he continued, referring to the outcome of last month’s referendum on austerity measures.



EURUSD

1308EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UP

Target 1: 1.1272

Target 2: 1.1042

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

Daily control level: 1.0980



GBPUSD

1308GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5713

Target 2: 1.5507

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY

1308USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.96

Target 2: 123.44

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588

Daily control level: 123.80



USDCHF

1308USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9848

Target 2: 0.9658

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

1308USDCADH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3099

Target 2: 1.2855

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

1308AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7472

Target 2: 0.7282

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7425




GOLD

1308GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1141.00

Target 2: 1110.16

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.42

Daily control level: 1077.00



OIL

1308BRENTH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 52.00

Target 2: 48.68

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6587

Daily control level: 55.50





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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.08.2015


Greek Government vote on the third bailout package, which has finally taken place this morning, was approved by 222 votes to 64, with only 11 abstentions. Preceding that, however, there was a serious disunity in the Parliament.

“In angry exchanges, the conservative opposition rounded on the government, warning it not to take its support for granted. “If you want to provoke us – and for us to vote for it – you can’t have it both ways,” Vangelis Meimarakis, the leader of the New Democracy party told finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos” – reported by the watchers of the Greek debates.

“On the left, former energy minister Panayiotis Lafazanis, who leads a rebel bloc of around a quarter of Syriza’s 149 MPs, pledged to “smash the eurozone dictatorship”, while in her concluding pre-vote remarks, Konstantopoulou announced: “I am not going to support the prime minister anymore.”

Looking at the rest of the market, the German economy, the largest in the European Union, expanded less than forecasted as the morning release of the country’s preliminary quarterly GDP revealed. The GDP figure rose to mere 0.4% instead of projected 0.5%. It was also significantly lower than the 0.7% number of the May’s release. The Greek crisis and China’s turmoil have both played a substantial role in the decreasing global demand.

French Preliminary GDP release had a similar outcome with the number coming to 0.0% instead of 0.2% increase. This was a large drop comparing to the May publication when the number stood at 0.7% after the revision.

Later this afternoon, at 1:30 pm CET, we will see the release of the monthly Canadian Manufacturing Sales number, which represents the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers. This is one of the leading indicators of the economic health, as manufacturing industry is fast affected by the market circumstances and is an early indicator of hiring, investment and spending. This time the number is projected to expand to 2.3% comparing to the 0.1% of last month.

At the same time, there will be monthly the US Producer Price Index will be published. PPI is a weighted index of the wholesale prices and shows trend within the US physical goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and commodities market and is therefore, a leading indicator of the country’s inflation. This time PPI is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the 0.4% figure published last month.

The US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Index will close the economic news week at 3:00 pm. Financial confidence is an important component of the consumer spending, which account for a major part of a country’s economic activity. The figure is based on the survey of about 500 respondents, rating the relative present and future economic conditions. This month the index is projected to increase from 93.1 to 93.5 mark.



EURUSD

1408EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1256

Target 2: 1.1040

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.0980





GBPUSD

1408GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5709

Target 2: 1.5507

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY

1408USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.96

Target 2: 123.44

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7588

Daily control level: 123.80



USDCHF

1408USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9857

Target 2: 0.9667

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

1408USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3184

Target 2: 1.2934

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

1408AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7452

Target 2: 0.7262

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7425



GOLD

1408GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1129.90

Target 2: 1100.12

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.89

Daily control level: 1077.00





OIL

1408BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 51.20

Target 2: 47.96

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6214

Daily control level: 55.50





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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.08.2015



Friday’s positive US data helped the US Dollar Index to rebound from the recent decline, when the currency was trading at the four-week low, below 96.00 last week.

The monthly Producer Price Index, representing the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers and leading indicator of the consumer inflation, came to 0.2%, higher than projected 0.1%.

Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment has declined for the second consecutive month, published at 92.9, comparing to the expected 93.5 figure. Financial confidence is of crucial importance to the consumer spending and is accounting for the majority of economic activity. The overall trend for the data is on the rise since the middle of 2011.

This morning Asian shares continued on the way down as Chinese market slump is still pressuring the global marketplace. Despite the fact that the Yuan has stabilized for the last number of days, underlining concerns regarding weaker Chinese economy and possibility of the further Yuan depreciation is one of the substantial obstacles for the market to recover.

Last week’s China’s currency devaluation caused the investors to consider other markets such as Turkey and Malaysia, with the both countries undergoing political crises at the moment.

Oil prices dropped to the six-year low as more oil rigs were opened last week. This has put an additional weight on the oil-export depending economies. USDCAD is nearing to retest 11-year low of 1.3210 it reached a week ago. Australian Dollar has also rebounded lower and is now trading around 0.7350 level, close to the AUDUSD six-year low of 0.7210.

With the markets weakening globally, it will probably add a further boost to the US currency, as for now it is considered a “safe heaven” investment, with so many markets facing high volatility and unpredictability. In addition, the potential interest rate hike later this year, adds strength to the major world reserve currency.

Today proves to be a rather quiet day with regards to the economic news releases. Adding that it is also the middle of the holiday’s month, no major market moves are expected to occur today.




EURUSD

1708EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1226

Target 2: 1.1006

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.1210




GBPUSD

1708GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5751

Target 2: 1.5551

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.5670





USDJPY

1708USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 124.93

Target 2: 123.51

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.7129

Daily control level: 125.25





USDCHF

1708USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9843

Target 2: 0.9661

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 0.9710



USDCAD

1708USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3213

Target 2: 1.2967

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

1708AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7465

Target 2: 0.7283

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7425



GOLD

1708GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1129.59

Target 2: 1099.39

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.10

Daily control level: 1077.00



OIL

1708BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.34

Target 2: 47.20

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5664

Daily control level: 55.50


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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.08.2015



This morning at 9:30 am London time, the Office for National Statistics we will release the UK Consumer Price Index, which it is considered a benchmark for the U.K. economy inflation gauge as it measures the change in the goods and services purchased by the consumers.

The CPI is used for the Bank of England inflation target, which is currently set at 2%. The inflation rate is significant to a currency valuation because the rising consumer prices lead to the rising country’s interest rate.

The index inspects the weighted average of prices of a given basket, compounded out of consumer goods and services, which include items such food, medical services and transportation. The CPI is calculated by averaging the prices of the basket items, before categorising them by their importance.

The CPI number was steadily declining since the second half of 2011, when inflation hit the top of 5.2% in July. Last March the United Kingdom has officially entered “no growth zone” with the release coming to 0.0% for the first time in the index history. The May release disappointed the markets even further when it was published at -0.1%, entering the phase of deflation and prolonging the long-awaited interest rate hike further.

Even though since then the data is steadily fluctuating between -0.1% to 0.1%, the analysts expect the inflation indicator to drop even lower in the near future.

The British economy however still remains less susceptible to the economic slowdown than the rest of its European neighbours, since keeping own currency allows UK for more freedom in market adjustments as well as to some extend prevents the spread of contagion from the destabilized recently Eurozone.

GBPUSD is fluctuating in 1.5670- 1.5460 range for the fifth consecutive week after it reconfirmed the breach of the upward trendline in the middle of July. The CPI is projected to come out without changes at 0.0%, with the numbers coming lower than projected could likely have a weakening effect on the British Pound.



EURUSD

1808EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1181

Target 2: 1.0971

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.1210



GBPUSD

1808GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.5681

Target 2: 1.5483

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.5670





USDJPY

1808USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 125.05

Target 2: 123.71

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6740

Daily control level: 125.25





USDCHF

1808USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9876

Target 2: 0.9700

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.9710




USDCAD

1808USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3198

Target 2: 1.2958

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.2910



AUDUSD

1808AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7461

Target 2: 0.7281

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7425




GOLD

1808GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1132.12

Target 2: 1102.72

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70

Daily control level: 1077.00







OIL

1808BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.23

Target 2: 47.23

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007

Daily control level: 55.50




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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.08.2015



Asian shares dropped to two-year low this morning, as Chinese stock market continues to decline, following last week’s yuan devaluation. Fears about the stability of the China’s economy influenced a further sell-off with Shanghai Composite Index sliding 6.1%.

In a stabilization attempt, yesterday China’s Central bank injected 120 Billion yuan into the market, which was largest since January 2014 when the bank added 150 billion yuan liquidity through 14-day repos.

However, market confidence declined further, when the China’s “national team”, the government assigned group, which was buying stocks to support the market, has reduced its operations, causing the concerns that the government is withdrawing its support.

“China’s securities regulator said late last week that the market had normalised and the government would allow market forces to play a bigger role in determining stock prices” – Reuters reports.

The slowdown of the China’s economy has substantially weakened commodity prices. Copper value, for example, slid to six-year low, breaking the psychological level of 5.000 US dollars per tonne and now trading below it.

Brent price declined to more than a five-month low of 48.44 yesterday, continuing the downward trend it set at the end of the June last year.

Presently the main concerns of the global investors are the Chinese economy and the US interest rate hike, which is expected to be introduced by the end of this year including the possibility of this action as early as the following month.

Following last week yuan devaluation and current market turmoil, there are fears that the crisis will spread to the other economies, causing pressure even on the US-denominated debt.

The emerging economies markets were hit the hardest when MSCI emerging markets index dropped to more than 20%, its lowest level since 2011. The number of the emerging markets currencies are facing the liquidity outflow.

The investments are being transferred to the US dollar, currently the market’s “safe heaven”, with the prospects of the nearing interest rate hike adding stability to the major world’s reserve currency.

The US S&P 500 however, slid to 0.26% yesterday. The September’s futures of the UK’s FTSE 100 have also opened lower this morning after the trend formed a lower high last week.

Gold, conversely, is trading higher currently targeting to retest last week’s high of 1127.00, after it reconfirmed the breach of the downward trend channel last Wednesday.



EURUSD

1908EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1121

Target 2: 1.0918

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.1210





GBPUSD

1908GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5763

Target 2: 1.5553

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.5670



USDJPY

1908USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 125.04

Target 2: 123.74

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6500

Daily control level: 125.25






USDCHF

1908USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.9857

Target 2: 0.9683

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.9710


USDCAD

1908USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3176

Target 2: 1.2938

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.2910




AUDUSD

1908AUDUSDH12.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7425

Target 2: 0.7245

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7425





GOLD

1908GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1132.24

Target 2: 1102.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.70

Daily control level: 1077.00


OIL

1908BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 50.19

Target 2: 47.21

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4900

Daily control level: 55.50


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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.08.2015



Today Greece prepares to receive the first tranche of the new 86 billion euro bailout deal, which was approved by German Bundestag yesterday. However, there is still a lot of scepticism whether Greece will be able to implement all the reforms required by the three-year financial aid programme.

The cash-strapped country is due to receive the first instalment from the European Stability Mechanism amounting to 26 billion euro, 13 billion euro of which will be available immediately, so the bond’s repayment to the European Central Bank can be made without delay. The rest of the funds will be distributed to the country in several parts and will help Greece to recapitalize its struggling banking sector.

Under the current program Greece should undertake strict conditions which are “aiming at setting right public finances and administration and dealing with the economy and problems in the financial sector” – the Dutch Finance Minister and Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in his statement.

The implementation of the reforms will be closely monitored and assessed whether all the commitments are met. The International Monetary Fund will review the current Greece bailout programme in order to decide whether to participate in it.

The agreement was approved by the German Bundestag after the intensive debates regarding the sustainability of the new deal.

“Following three hours of lively debate, 453 voted in favour of the rescue package, while 113 voted against it and 18 MPs abstained. A total of 63 MPs of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU conservative alliance rebelled against the government despite warnings that there would be consequences if they failed to toe the party line. Three conservative MPs were among those who abstained” – as the Guardian reports.

“Bundestag observers said that despite being held during the summer holiday and with some MPs either ill or unable to return from far-flung places, never had so few voted in such an important vote. It was a sign of how controversial the topic has been” – it continues.



EURUSD

2008EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1217

Target 2: 1.1021

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 0.0980





GBPUSD

2008GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5781

Target 2: 1.5577

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5550





USDJPY

2008USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 125.44

Target 2: 124.12

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.6561

Daily control level: 123.00




USDCHF

2008USDCHFH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.9744

Target 2: 0.9570

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.9900






USDCAD

2008USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3247

Target 2: 1.3007

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.2960




AUDUSD

2008AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7434

Target 2: 0.7258

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7425




GOLD

2008GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1148.02

Target 2: 1119.10

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.46

Daily control level: 1112.00





OIL

2008BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 48.77

Target 2: 45.77

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5029

Daily control level: 51.10



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.08.2015



A little over 7 months ago Alexis Tsipras led his SYRIZA party to an election victory on January 26. Mr. Tsipras since taking the leadership of the radical left SYRIZA in 2009 has been a driving force that has swept away the political elite that has taken Greece to the brink of ruin and bankruptcy.

Alexis has had an eventful tenure as the Greek Prime. His party was elected to office on a promise to roll back the much-hated austerity program. His leadership did cause a great deal of political and economic instability, but it also opened up the debate on which way the European project was heading.

Although Tsipras pressed home his domestic popularity by winning a referendum which said no to further austerity, the realities of the grim economic situation and hard line taken by European partners of Greece led to a dramatic U-turn by the Greek Prime Minister.

Alexis Tsipras acceptance of the harsh terms set out in the third austerity programme has now split the SYRIZA party. The left faction of the party led by the former Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis and the former Parliamentary Speaker Zoe Konstantopoulou both former close associates of Alexis Tsipras have become the Greek Prime Ministers most outspoken critics.

The Greek political system has always been known for its fractious character. With the anger and opposition from the radical elements to the new austerity agreement being so strong, the possibility of the left faction splintering away from the core of SYRIZA is now very high.

The strength of internal opposition within his own SYRIZA party and the size political U-Turn which in Greek is called a kolotoumba performed by Mr.Tsipras meant that his resignation and the request of a fresh mandate from the Greek public was always on the cards and as such is not a great surprise.

The Greek Prime Minister has a moral obligation to ask the Greek people to back him and the EUR 86 billion three-year bailout agreement. The calling of the snap election is a risk, but the popularity of Tsipras is high. If you add to this the relief of the Greek public to the acceptance of the austerity programme the possibility of Alexis Tsipras once again leading the rump of what remains of SYRIZA to a second election victory is strong.

The timing of this election could not be better. Tsipras having transformed himself from an activist of the left to a new-born liberal of the political establishment also has support from other European Governments and European and international institutions. In reality only Alexis Tsipras as the leader of a new Greek Government that is untouched by the political scandals, corruption and mismanagement that blighted the establishment regimes of PASOK and New Democracy can sell to the Greek people a rescue plan that is heavy on spending cuts and tax rises.

Does Mr. Tsipras agree to the plan? Well, that is another question but what choice did he have other than the unthinkable of exiting the Eurozone.



EURUSD

21082015EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1346

Target 2: 1.1134

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 1.1100




GBPUSD

21082015GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5790

Target 2: 1.5586

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5600



USDJPY

21082015USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.09

Target 2: 122.67

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71

Daily control level: 124.00





USDCHF

21082015USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9672

Target 2: 0.9494

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.9650




USDCAD

21082015USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3216

Target 2: 1.2956

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

Daily control level: 1.3050




AUDUSD

21082015AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7422

Target 2: 0.7246

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7400



GOLD

21082015GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1149.19

Target 2: 1117.97

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.61

Daily control level: 1108.00




OIL

21082015CLU5H1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 42.48

Target 2: 39.52

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48

Daily control level: 42.50






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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.08.2015




The People’s Bank of China cut interest rate and also has lowered the reserve requirements for the banking sector yesterday, hoping to support the struggling economy. The one-year benchmark interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, with the current rate now of 4.6 percent. At the same time the reserves were allowed to be reduced by 50 basis points to 18 percent.

The action followed one more day stock plunging on Tuesday, seeing the investors desperate in expectations of new supportive measures by the Chinese government. The major Chinese indices declined to more than 8 percent on Monday, with the following day’s decline accounted to approximate 7 percentage points.

The attempt to support plunging market was the next step after the investments of hundreds of billions dollars by the Chinese government to support the equities, failed to bring any sustainable result.

The China’s turmoil, the world’s second-largest economy and one of the main global engines, has sent a shockwave around the world, causing all the major indexes to decline sharply on Monday, which consequently was called “Black Monday”, as the amount of losses counted in billions of dollars.

Despite all the efforts to prop-up the Chinese stock market, the decline continues, with Shanghai Composite declining by another 1.3 percent by yesterday’s close. The index is now trading at 2927 level, its lowest since December 2014.

FTSE100, the main British benchmark index continued the decline, despite the brief retracement last afternoon. It is currently trading below 6000 mark, losing 1.8 percent of the value. The German DAX is following the trend with 1.9 percent loss up to now, trading at 9.955 this morning. French CAC 40 faced similar faith, declining 2.05 percent up to now.

The US Dollar Index has retraced to trade above 94.00 mark, after it reached 92.52 low on Monday. In the meantime, EURUSD has reconfirmed the reversal to the upward trend, currently trading around 1.1500 level. High volatility seems very likely to hold in the coming days.



EURUSD

2608EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1748

Target 2: 1.1486

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 0.0980



GBPUSD

2608GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5880

Target 2: 1.5670

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.5615



USDJPY

2608USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 119.62

Target 2: 117.18

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.2151

Daily control level: 124.60



USDCHF

2608USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.9407

Target 2: 0.9193

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 0.9670





USDCAD

2608USDCADH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3416

Target 2: 1.3156

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

Daily control level: 1.2960



AUDUSD

2608AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7256

Target 2: 0.7056

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 0.7360




GOLD

2608GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1172.02

Target 2: 1138.68

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.67

Daily control level: 1112.00


OIL

2608BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 44.73

Target 2: 41.55

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5940

Daily control level: 49.30



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.08.2015




The Dow Jones Industrial Average index surged higher last afternoon, closing the day with the biggest single day gains since 2011.

The indicator was trading 627 points higher and after incurring substantial volatility during the day closed 619 points up, which amounts to 3.96 percent of the index increase. S&P 500 at the same time rose to 3.90 percent, lifting by 72.90 points to 1.940,51 level.

William Dudley, the President of the NY Federal Reserve has hinted in the yesterday’s speech at the press conference about the local and regional economy that the interest rate hike is still on the agenda, though with probabilities of the event occurring later than in September, as was previously projected by investors based on the Janet Yellen earlier communications.

The influential speaker has also reassured the auditory that the recent turmoil in China will not affect the US economy significantly.

“The decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago,” he said.

“The stock market has to move a lot – and stay there – to have implications for the US economy. What we’re seeing is not a US problem. This is very different from the financial crisis.”

The indications of the hike delay, meaning that the credit costs will remain at the low levels for some time have calmed down the investors. The action is expected to affect positively the global markets, as the prospect of the investments outflow now seems to be reduced.

Nevertheless, Chinese markets continued on the way down, with even the Tuesday’s interest rate cut and further injection of 140 billion yuan by the government on Wednesday were incapable to support the situation. The Shanghai Composite closed down 1.3% yesterday, the fifth consecutive session towards the south.

The People’s Bank of China decided to cut interest rate for the fifth time in nine month so to induce banks for more funds availability to the public, as Chinese economic growth and manufacturing output are slowing down. The current official figures show the growth rate at 7 percent, whereas many analysts agree that the real figure will be closer to 5 percent.

European markets were tumbling as well, with the British FTSE 100 closing the day 102 points lower and 15 percent down from its record high. Germany’s DAX and Spain’s IBEX both lost 1.3 percent, while the French CAC dropped 1.4 percent.

The US Dollar index has opened this morning higher, trading up for the third consecutive day. The index is currently fluctuating around 95.35 level, rebounding from the Monday’s low of 92.52.



EURUSD

2708EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1464

Target 2: 1.11164

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

Daily control level: 0.0980




GBPUSD

2708GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5571

Target 2: 1.5345

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.5615




USDJPY

2708USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 121.17

Target 2: 118.57

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3040

Daily control level: 116.80



USDCHF

2708USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9680

Target 2: 0.9410

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

Daily control level: 0.9780




USDCAD

2708USDCADH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3428

Target 2: 1.3154

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0130

Daily control level: 0.0137





AUDUSD

2708AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7221

Target 2: 0.7021

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 0.7360




GOLD

2708GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1143.58

Target 2: 1107.58

Projected range in ATR’s: 18.00

Daily control level: 1112.00


OIL

2708BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 45.80

Target 2: 42.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6471

Daily control level: 49.30



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.08.2015



Asian shares prolonged their upturn as the Chinese and US markets were recovering for the second consecutive day.

Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite index surged 5.3 percent higher by the yesterday’s close, after crushing by 23 percent over the last five sessions. The revival came after it was announced that the People’s Bank of China purchased additional stock becoming a buyer of last resort, due to the absence of the real demand.

Moreover, it gave an order to the state-owned banks to purchase more of the national currency. These actions followed the reduction of the interest rate earlier this week for the fifth time in nine months.

Among the measures, which raised the market sentiment was the announcement that Chinese pension funds will invest as much as 313 billion US dollars in the country’s stock market. Analysts expect some more government intervention today, therefore propping up the weakened stock market further.

Positive news from China have affected well the global markets, diminishing the fears that the slowing Chinese economy would weight on the rest of the world which up to now wiped out more than 2 trillion US Dollars in market capitalization.

Wednesday comments by William Dudley, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, which hinted that the rate hike will be postponed from the earlier expected month of September, added more of a reassurance to investors.

The US preliminary GDP numbers beat the economists the expectations coming to 3.7 percent yesterday, have increased the desirability of the major world’s reserve currency, helping the dollar index gaining value for the third successive day in a row, which was trading above 96.00 level during the previous trading session.

Have all the above actions supported the real market upraise and will serve as a genuine revival or just as a mere dead cat bounce, should become clear within a short period of time.



EURUSD

2808EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1398

Target 2: 1.1090

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

Daily control level: 0.0980



GBPUSD

2808GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5515

Target 2: 1.5291

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 1.5615



USDJPY

2808USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 122.37

Target 2: 119.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3588

Daily control level: 116.80


USDCHF

2808USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9783

Target 2: 0.9537

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0123

Daily control level: 0.9780




USDCAD

2808USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3326

Target 2: 1.3068

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

Daily control level: 0.0137



AUDUSD

2808AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7265

Target 2: 0.7063

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 0.7360




GOLD

2808GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1142.98

Target 2: 1107.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 17.59

Daily control level: 1112.00




OIL

2808BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 49.61

Target 2: 45.99

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8129

Daily control level: 49.30




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Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.08.2015



The European equities have opened lower this morning following their Asian counterparts, as worries over Chinese government support abandonment invoked the selling mood in investors.

The UK markets will remain closed due to the British bank holiday today.

Following the Chinese government decision to call off the further support to the country stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index declined nearly 3 percent on Monday, following last week revival.

German DAX 30 opened 0.8 percent lower at 10,202.00 this morning, continuing the daily downward trend the Index of the largest EU economy has formed in the middle of this July. The EU Stoxx 50 had a similar fate, opening at 3,261.50, decreasing approximately 0.70 percent.

The German Retail Sales numbers came out on the positive note today, increasing to 1.4 percent from -1.0 percent last month. This helped the common European currency rebound higher against the US Dollar, following four consecutive days of the decline last week.

The US dollar index itself was trading lower, bouncing off the 96.20 resistance level. The index is fluctuating within 93.00- 98.00 borders since the beginning of last April, with the signs of lost upward momentum.

Gold remained trading at the Friday’s close level, after it broke the upward trend support line at the end of the previous week. It seems the precious metal is expecting some additional data from the global markets in order to decide on the move further.

Looking at the forthcoming releases, at 10.00 am London time the EuroStat will publish the Eurozone’s August Consumer Price Index inflation estimates. The numbers are projected to stay without change, with the CPI Flash Estimate index being at 0.2 percent and the Core CPI Flash Estimate at 1.0 percent.



EURUSD

3108EURUSDH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1325

Target 2: 1.1011

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157

Daily control level: 0.1020



GBPUSD

3108GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5528

Target 2: 1.5298

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

Daily control level: 1.5815


USDJPY

3108USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.04

Target 2: 120.24

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4031

Daily control level: 124.60



USDCHF

3108USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.97401

Target 2: 0.9500

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 0.9780



USDCAD

3108USDCADH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3335

Target 2: 1.3081

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

Daily control level: 0.0137



AUDUSD

3108AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7246

Target 2: 0.7054

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 0.7360




GOLD

3108GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1150.70

Target 2: 1115.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 17.70

Daily control level: 1112.00






OIL

3108BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 51.87

Target 2: 48.11

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.8800

Daily control level: 51.10



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.09.2015



After the recent Chinese turmoil, many economists have shifted their outlook regarding the US interest rate hike closer to the end of the year, rather than the earlier expected month of September.

At the moment, the September rate hike has declined to below 50 percent according to a survey, conducted by Bloomberg recently, which is now down from 77 percent last month.

“Forty-eight percent of 54 economists surveyed Aug. 27-31 by Bloomberg News see a September increase in the benchmark lending rate, the first move up since 2006. That’s down from 77 percent in an Aug. 7-12 survey, though it is still double the 24 percent who say the first move will occur in December. Seventeen percent said October” – Bloomberg news agency reports.

The latest speech by the FOMC member and the Fed’s vice chairman Stanley Fischer at the 2015 Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole last Saturday gave no indications regarding the timing of the next rate increase. By and large, it seems to be a tough call for the Federal Reserve to make such a decision.

The Federal Reserve has last raised the interest rates nine years ago, with the increase by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent. However, following housing market collapse and the consequent sliding into recession have soon reversed these actions, with the Fed benchmark interest rate set between 0.0 percent and 0.25 percent by December 2008.

As the Federal Reserve monetary policy’s main function is to strive for the maximum employment and stable prices, in 2011 the central bank determined that 2 percent target inflation rate would be the best to achieve such results and keep the economic growth at a healthy pace.

A reduction of the interest rate is commonly promoting more consumer spending, increasing inflation and economic revival. This time, however, since the interest rate was already at zero and still deemed ineffective, further actions such a Quantitative easing programmes were taken. At the moment, all these measures have been completed and the US economy showing an improvement, with the jobs market being almost at the prerecession at 5.3 percent unemployment rate.

Hence, the Fed have started to consider the interest rates tightening, with such expectations sending the US currency up since the May of 2014. However sharp interest rate hike could cause the damages to not yet fully healed US economy, therefore such steps are still causing a contemplation among the US policy makers. In addition, the only expectations of such actions have already disrupted the global markets and put pressure on the emerging economies.

Surely enough the next rate increase should not exceed 25 basis points. Regarding the timing, some further lights will be given at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 17 of September.



EURUSD

0109EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1362

Target 2: 1.1058

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

Daily control level: 0.1020






GBPUSD

0109GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5460

Target 2: 1.5226

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.5815



USDJPY

0109USDJPYH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 122.54

Target 2: 119.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4158

Daily control level: 124.60





USDCHF

0109USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9786

Target 2: 0.9554

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 0.9780




USDCAD

0109USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3270

Target 2: 1.3008

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.3055




AUDUSD

0109AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7204

Target 2: 0.7018

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.7360



GOLD

0109GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1150.47

Target 2: 1118.19

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.14

Daily control level: 1112.00




OIL

0109BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 55.42

Target 2: 50.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.257

Daily control level: 42.55



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.09.2015



September did not begin well for the global stock markets, attesting that the last week’s revival was probably just a mere dead cat bounce.

Rising worries about the China’s slowing economy is prompting the sell-off of the international equities. Numerous interventions by the Chinese government to stabilize the markets brought little result when the Chinese equities were collapsing from June’s high over the last two months.

Furthermore, weak manufacturing reports from China, Europe and the United States invoked additional concerns about the prospects of the global growth.

European stocks followed the Asian ones down this morning, with no end to market volatility. The UK’s FTSE 100 opened 2.5 percent lower, after its worst month in the last four years. Earlier, Shanghai Composite index closed down a modest 1.2 percent, while Japan Nikkei slumped 3.8 percent, while the rest of the Asian equities were down to more than 2 percent.

There are still chances that the US Federal Reserve may still go ahead with the rate hike though probabilities of such an action significantly lower after last month markets turbulence.

Such prospects increase investors’ insecurity, causing them to look for the stability elsewhere after withdrawing their investments from the emerging markets. In addition, the likelihood of the rising borrowing costs in the US adds to the liquidity outflow from the more fragile economies.

Returning to the two most significant world’s commodities, we see the following picture.

Oil price fell to more than 3 percent yesterday, with the Brent crude being down to more than four dollars since last Monday highs and now trades at the below 50 mark, compared to the last summer’s high of above 115 US dollars per barrel.

The previous three-day revival of the commodity followed the news that OPEC expressed its willingness to discuss the mutually beneficial oil price level with the non-member oil producing countries. Nonetheless, the barriers for consensus between the counterparts still remain high.

The only significant frontrunner was Gold, with the investors seeking “the safe heaven” during the times of uncertainty. The precious metal was on the way up again, after 3.5 percent rise in August.

The analysts see the uncertainty likely to continue in the near future.




EURUSD

0209EURUSDH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1464

Target 2: 1.1164

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

Daily control level: 0.1020





GBPUSD

0209GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5420

Target 2: 1.5186

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.5815





USDJPY

0209USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 120.84

Target 2: 117.86

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.4896

Daily control level: 124.60



USDCHF

0209USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9703

Target 2: 0.9467

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 0.9780


USDCAD

0209USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.3383

Target 2: 1.3129

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

Daily control level: 1.3055





AUDUSD

0209AUDUSDH11.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7109

Target 2: 0.6919

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7360


GOLD

0209GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1155.59

Target 2: 1123.69

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.95

Daily control level: 1112.00


OIL

0209BRENTH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 55.49

Target 2: 46.55

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.469

Daily control level: 42.55



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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.09.2015




Unless you have been on vacation for the whole of August you might have noticed that the foreign exchange markets have been very volatile during the prior month.

During the summer months, we are supposed to see the markets trade within small ranges. However, this has not been the case with typical Average True Range levels (ATR) ranging from the 140’s for EURUSD down to a still very large 90’s for AUDUSD.

Although August has come and gone, the fallout from China still continues to rile the markets. With the summer coming to a close, the action on the Forex markets during the coming autumn and winter months should continue to entertain some and give others frayed nerves.

Having only arrived back from my own mini-family break yesterday I have had a busy couple of days trying to catch up and make sense of what has gone on before. What comes to mind is a market that offers a lot of upside opportunity and downside risk.

Understanding and being aware of the up and coming event risks is of paramount importance and although we are now nearing the close of the first week in September, event-driven market volatility could see Thursday and Friday experience some extreme price action.

The big event of today is, of course, the European Central Bank’s press conference which takes place at 1:30 pm (London). These events are always keenly anticipated however this press conference is taking place after the tumultuous events that can only be described as the real China syndrome.

We have already have had a taste of what could be in store for us with the ECB Executive Board Member Mr. Peter Praet stating that Central Banks inflation targeting will take into account any slowdown in China and the drop-off in the price of Oil.

Mario Draghi the ECB boss will no doubt touch on these issues during today’s press conference, however, there is the added worry of what to do about the Euro. Confidence in the single currency has returned with traders bidding up EURUSD during the late spring and summer months. Only last week from a technical perspective EURUSD printed a weekly higher high.

If this bullishness for the Euro continues the ECB will become increasingly concerned that a strong single currency will play havoc to its inflation targeting. I always find the subject of inflation targeting a little confusing. Is low inflation or deflation such a big issue when businesses and the citizens of the European Union can purchase products, services and commodities for less?

I am sure Mr. Draghi will enlighten us with more pearls of wisdom this afternoon.



EURUSD

03092015EURUSD.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1373

Target 2: 1.1079

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147

Daily control level: 1.1320





GBPUSD

03092015GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5414

Target 2: 1.5182

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

Daily control level: 1.5330


USDJPY

03092015USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 121.80

Target 2: 118.83

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.48

Daily control level: 121.40




USDCHF

03095015USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9802

Target 2: 0.9566

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 0.9560







USDCAD

03092015USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3396

Target 2: 1.3140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.3250



AUDUSD

03092015AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7134

Target 2: 0.6940

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 0.7060






GOLD

03092015GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1149.15

Target 2: 1117.71

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.72

Daily control level: 1142.00


OIL

03092015OILUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 48.95

Target 2: 43.87

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.54

Daily control level: 43.50





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acfx

Broker Representative
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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.09.2015



Yesterday’s ECB press conference did not hold many surprises however the markets took their cue from the Central Bank chief as the Euro promptly sold off.

As expected the outlook for both inflation and Euro Area growth dominated Thursday’s event with Mr Draghi saying that the ECB had cut its forecasts for both.

The ECB chief said that he expected inflation to remain extremely low for a considerable time. It would appear that the issue of extremely low inflation in the Euro Area has now become a chronic problem.

On economic activity, Mario Draghi said that Euro Area growth will rise at a slower pace than had been earlier predicted.

Due to the continuing concerns over both inflation and growth Mario Draghi hinted that the ECB would be ready to add to an already large programme of stimulus.

The ECB yesterday kept interest rates on hold at 0.05% which was expected. In terms of other numbers, the ECB has revised its forecast for growth to 1.4% instead of 1.5% for 2015 and 1.7% instead of 1.9% for 2016.

The global outlook was also mentioned with Mr Draghi pointing to the problems facing the emerging markets and China during the month of August. According to ECB chief, these global issues had increased the risks and could impact Eurozone growth.

Draghi and his colleagues have now put out the message that they are ready to expand the Euro Areas Quantitative Easing programme by either spending more on a monthly basis, putting back the end of the QE programme to after September 2016, increasing the scope of the assets that can be purchased or a combination of all of the above.

I taking such a dovish stance the Euro should ultimately weaken value against the Green Back. The days of EURUSD trading above the 1.1000 level could potentially end soon.



EURUSD

04092015EURUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1275

Target 2: 1.0969

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

Daily control level: 1.1240




GBPUSD

04092015GBPUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5370

Target 2: 1.5140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

Daily control level: 1.5330



USDJPY

04092015USDJPYH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 121.64

Target 2: 118.48

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58

Daily control level: 120.70



USDCHF

04092015USDCHFH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9854

Target 2: 0.9610

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 0.9695




USDCAD

04092015USDCADH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3315

Target 2: 1.3045

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0135

Daily control level: 1.3325






AUDUSD

04092015AUDUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7113

Target 2: 0.6917

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 0.7060



GOLD

04092015GOLDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1141.01

Target 2: 1109.01

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.00

Daily control level: 1142.00



OIL

04092015OILUSDH1.png


The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 49.68

Target 2: 44.29

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.70

Daily control level: 43.50





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