Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

acfx · Jun 5, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.06.2015

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1340 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1200 level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1200 level.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5250 level.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF closed the day unchanged.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9290 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9400 level.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9425 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7600 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7700 level.

From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7820 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1170.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see XAUUSD test the 1179.00 level.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1196.25 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 57.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see Light Sweet Crude test the 58.15 level.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.00 level.

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acfx · Jun 8, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 08.06.2015

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1200 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1275 level

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5350 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5250 level.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5450 level.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.50 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 125.00 level.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9300 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9425 level.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9300 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7700 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7600 level.

From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1179.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1179.00 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 58.15 level.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 60.00 level.

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acfx · Jun 9, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.06.2015

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1380 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1275 level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5250 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see GBPUSD test the 1.5350 level.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5170 level.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 125.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDJPY test the 124.00 level.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 123.60 level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9300 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see USDCHF test the 0.9250 level.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9480 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7600 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see AUDUSD test the 0.7700 level.

From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour dowm trend with the line of control at the 0.7750 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1179.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1179.00 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 59.00 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 57.80 level.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 57.80 level.

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acfx · Jun 10, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.06.2015

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.1380 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see EURUSD test the 1.1275 level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.1200 level.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1.5550 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see GBPUSD test the 1.5350 level.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5250 level.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 122.75 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDJPY test the 123.60 level.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 124.60 level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.9250 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move lower could see USDCHF test the 0.9330 level.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9330 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD closed the day lower.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 0.7820 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7750 level.

From a technical perspective AUDUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7700 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 1185.50 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see XAUUSD test the 1170.00 level.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1170.00 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil closed the day higher.

This morning I am monitoring the price action for a test of the 61.50 level.

Alternatively a failure to sustain a move higher could see Light Sweet Crude test the 60.00 level.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 57.80 level.

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acfx · Jun 12, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.06.2015

In a turn of events that frayed the nerves of the Greek negotiation team, the IMF representatives have left the Brussels debt talks and flown back to Washington.

According to the IMF spokesman Mr. Gerry Rice the gap between Greece and the creditors is large. Mr. Rice said that the two sides are “well away from an agreement”.

The same old areas still divide Greece from its creditors of Pension, Taxation and Public Sector reform. However there has been some movement on the primary budget surplus.

With Greece needing a cash injection for a new debt deal by the end of the month, an inability to reach a workable compromise agreement will put in jeopardy a payment to the IMF on June 30.

The administration of Alexis Tsipras is looking for debt relief in exchange for a relaxation of the Greek Governments anti austerity position. However the creditors and more particularly the Eurogroup have no wish to go soft on Greece as there is a fear that other countries within the Eurozone would justifiably ask for the very same favourable terms.

One can understand both points of view. The SYRIZA party when it took power earlier in the year inherited an economy that had a debt burden too large to ever be sustainable. There is a need to find a way to allow the Greek economy to grow but at the same time reduce the immediate debt burden that the country faces.

On their part the Europeans are fearful of SYRIZA and what it stands for. SYRIZA is an anti-establishment radical left coalition of interest groups that has fed on the concerns of the Greek public.

This tide of support for new political parties has also swept across Europe with the SNP and UKIP making significant gains at the expense of the traditional centrist parties such as the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal’s in the United Kingdom.

There is going to be a general elections later in the year in Spain. In this country a political movement similar to SYRIZA called Podemos has evolved from a pressure group that is made up by dissatisfied individuals to a political force that threatens to take power. It is therefore not in the interest of the Eurogroup countries to cut a deal with SYRIZA as this will only add more energy to the Podemos movement.

So why did IMF decide to pack up all their toys and fly back to the States? Was it a case of pure frustration pushing them to exit the meeting? Or is it a case that the IMF has decided to play its hand and by toughening its stance. Will this move push the Greek Premiers Tsipras and Varoufakis into a corner that forces them make the big compromise?

Or will fear of a backlash from an electorate that was promised so much but received so little and the rank and file of the SYRIZA party make Tsipras think twice about giving way to the creditor’s demands. Maybe the only solution is to call a referendum on the plan and let the people decide.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1405

Target 2: 1.1110

Projected range: 0.0147 ATR

Daily control level: 1.1330

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5650

Target 2: 1.5385

Projected range: 0.0133 ATR

Daily control level: 1.5420

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.60

Target 2: 122.20

Projected range: 1.19 ATR

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9435

Target 2: 0.9210

Projected range: 0.0113 ATR

Daily control level: 0.9300

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.2405

Target 2: 1.2175

Projected range: 0.0114 ATR

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2405

Target 2: 1.2175

Projected range: 0.0102 ATR

Daily control level: 0.7700

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1194.15

Target 2: 1169.20

Projected range: 12.48 ATR

Daily control level: 1175.30

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 62.30

Target 2: 58.75

Projected range: 1.76 ATR

Daily control level: 61.50

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acfx · Jun 16, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.06.2015

The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has upped the game of brinkmanship by saying that there are no plans to present new proposals.

On the contrary Varoufakis wants there to be further meetings where negotiations can take place. Any new proposals will be presented at the upcoming European Finance Ministers meeting that is being held in Luxembourg on June 18.

With deadlines looming it wold appear that the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras and Varoufakis are trying to push the negotiations down to the wire in the hope that the Europeans will blink and cave into the Greek demands for debt restructuring.

There is a looming threat of a miscalculation and an accidental Grexit triggered by the attempts of the Greek Government to sow the seeds of doubt in the minds of their European counterparts. Tsipras has decided to put the game theory that Varoufakis is an expert of to the test and hope that the fear of contagion will push the Europeans towards a compromise.

However there has been a hardening of views on the part of the creditors. Donald Tusk the European Union President has only in the past few days by said “There is no more time for gambling. The day is coming, I am afraid, that someone says the game is over.”

The Greek Government was not voted to power with a mandate of negotiate or leave the Euro. In fact the Greek public on the whole what to stay part of the European family and have no wish to enter into new unchartered adventures.

Furthermore the current Greek Government has shown itself to be lacking the technical skills to navigate the introduction of a Drachma MK2. The economic fallout of an introduction of a new currency would lead to an economic meltdown which would lead to Pensioners and Public Sector Employees either not getting paid or seeing their salaries and purchasing power drastically reduced.

The Greek Government has battled against the European demands for further austerity but a re-introduction of the Drachma will bring about a drop in living standards which the SYRIZA administration has battled to avoid.

The current extension to the Greek financial support program ends on June 30. This coincides with the Greek Government having to pay back to the IMF EUR 1.5 billion. Without a new agreement it remains uncertain how the Greek Government can finance this payment.

Although a failure to pay the IMF on June 30 technical does not put Greece into default the lack of money means that every repayment deadline is now turning into a mini crisis. There is another date on the horizon which could make it an uncomfortable summer. This is on July 20 when the Greek Government has to pay back some EUR 3.5 billion to the ECB. This is when the end game finally happens as a failure to payback this money would effectively cut Greece and its banking system adrift from the European Central Bank.

With just over a month to go before the ECB deadline this game of chicken has to either end in an ugly car crash on a compromise will have to be reached. I do not see the Europeans or the IMF backing down on the two key issues of reform of Pensions and the Public Sector. If Tsipras has to swallow the bitterest pill he will ever have to take a referendum or a snap election looms on the horizon.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1432

Target 2: 1.1132

Projected range: 0.0150 ATR

Daily control level: 1.1250

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5734

Target 2: 1.5466

Projected range: 0.0134 ATR

Daily control level: 1.5485

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.46

Target 2: 122.34

Projected range: 1.06 ATR

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9411

Target 2: 0.9169

Projected range: 0.0121 ATR

Daily control level: 0.9390

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.2427

Target 2: 1.2215

Projected range: 0.0106 ATR

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7864

Target 2: 0.7664

Projected range: 0.0100 ATR

Daily control level: 0.7700

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1198.08

Target 2: 1173.52

Projected range: 12.28 ATR

Daily control level: 1175.30

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1:61.28

Target 2: 57.94

Projected range: 1.67 ATR

Daily control level: 61.50

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acfx · Jun 17, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.06.2015

Once again the Federal Open Market Committee will take centre stage with Janet Yellen this evening due to deliver another eagerly awaited FOMC Statement.

This event which takes place 8 times a year will be monitored closely by traders and investors alike. In recent times, the FOMC Statements post the 2008 financial crisis has gained greater significance as a major event on the economic calendar.

This is due to the Federal Reserve, much like other major central banks such as the Bank of England and ECB, actively using “forward guidance” as a major policy tool. By means of “forward guidance” and through a careful manipulation of what I term as “Fed Speak” the FOMC has been able with some degree of success manage market expectations.

However with equity markets trading at the highs of this strong bull market there are major concerns surrounding the aftermath of an expected Fed tightening of interest rates that could take place as early as this summer.

A US interest rate increase will signal the end the recent era of cheap money. After some 7 years where investors made easy profits due to ideal market conditions, it will be of interest how market participants will react and adapt to a period of normalized interest rates.

Many traders and investors remember the times when global interest and inflation rates were much higher than they are today. However there are many traders, investors, hedge fund and portfolio managers who due to their age have never experienced periods of rising interest rates.

Furthermore, many of the trading algorithms that are being used currently, are based upon the present market conditions. Can these same systems be optimized to allow for periods of greater interest and inflation rate differentials across the world economy?

Back to today’s events and the FOMC has become rather data dependent. Furthermore the recent trend in data be it job, inflation or growth numbers has been inconsistent and erratic. The soft to trend less nature of the data that has been released to the markets thus far makes trying to discern what the Federal Reserve’s intentions are very difficult to comprehend. In fact does the FOMC chairwoman Janet Yellen herself know with any certainty when to flick the switch and raise interest rates? Furthermore is there any type of consensus among the other decision makers of the Fed.

I would be very surprised if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates this evening. There is a stronger possibility that we see a rate hike in September / October. For this to happen we will need better and more consistent data which would enforce a more hawkish outlook on interest rates. My gut feeling is that the FOMC will begin to normalize the interest rate picture in Q1 of 2016. Such a more cautious approach would suit the equity markets and give more time for all market participants to adapt to the new interest rate reality.

As for what I expect to happen today, I would not be surprised if leading up to the FOMC event that market volatility to drop off. However volatility should come back into the market after the statement is made. As the Fed wants to move on interest rates I see the US Dollar strengthening in the medium term. However there may be a dip lower after the statement if as expected interest rates are kept on hold.

With respect to the EURUSD there has been much resilience with the Euro holding firm despite all the negative headlines that surround Greece. The key area of 1.1400 / 1.1500 continues to be a target that could be tested.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1397

Target 2: 1.1097

Projected range: 0.0150 ATR

Daily control level: 1.1200

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5777

Target 2: 1.5515

Projected range: 0.0131 ATR

Daily control level: 1.5550

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.38

Target 2: 122.34

Projected range: 1.02 ATR

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9442

Target 2: 0.9198

Projected range: 0.0122 ATR

Daily control level: 0.9330

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.2395

Target 2: 1.2187

Projected range: 0.0104 ATR

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7846

Target 2: 0.7656

Projected range: 0.0095 ATR

Daily control level: 0.7700

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1193.77

Target 2: 1169.17

Projected range: 12.30 ATR

Daily control level: 1175.30

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 61.62

Target 2: 58.46

Projected range: 1.58 ATR

Daily control level: 61.50

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acfx · Jun 18, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.06.2015

Yet another Fed statement has come and gone and not much has really happened.

The Federal Reserve is very much still a hostage to data. Although Q1 data was very soft the FOMC chairwoman’s assessment is that the US economy is on the right track and that and a normalization of the interest rate environment is on the cards in 2015.

We do have three more data cycles leading up to the September meeting. Therefore there is still time to see some good data which will give the Federal Reserve the green signal to hike rates from their current historic lows of 0.25%.

It would therefore seem that all options are on the table with Janet Yellen adopting a wait and see approach to the incoming data.

Are we ready for an interest rate rise in September? I don’t think the markets have adjusted to the new reality. A preference for Q1 2016 still seems to the most popular timing for the inevitable to happen.

However if during the coming months the data does support a future interest rate hike I do not expect the FOMC to make bold moves in raising the cost of capital. I do however expect the FOMC to test the water, increase interest rates and monitor the effects before deciding on subsequent rate increases.

With respect to division within the Federal Reserve there does not seem to be any obvious splits between members who have a dovish or hawkish view on future interest rate policy with all members accepting that this long period of historic low interest rates is coming to a close.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1490

Target 2: 1.1180

Projected range: 0.0155 ATR

Daily control level: 1.1200

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5991

Target 2: 1.5709

Projected range: 0.141 ATR

Daily control level: 1.5620

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.69

Target 2: 122.51

Projected range: 1.09 ATR

Daily control level: 124.50

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9335

Target 2: 0.9099

Projected range: 0.0118 ATR

Daily control level: 0.9330

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.2329

Target 2: 1.2123

Projected range: 0.0103 ATR

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7846

Target 2: 0.7648

Projected range: 0.0099 ATR

Daily control level: 0.7780

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1198.21

Target 2: 1172.49

Projected range: 12.86 ATR

Daily control level: 1175.30

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 61.33

Target 2: 58.19

Projected range: 1.57 ATR

Daily control level: 61.50

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acfx · Jun 19, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.06.2015

Yesterday Eurogroup Finance Ministers met in Brussels to discuss a Greek debt crisis that has dominated the financial headlines for over six months.

The meeting that was also attended by the International Monetary Fund was an attempt to find an 11th hour solution that would avert a debt default by a member of the European Union and Eurozone.

It is feared that a default or risk of default would make the run that is currently effecting Greek Banks would lead to the European Central Bank having to withdraw Emergency Liquidity Support. Such a move would cause a systemic failure of the Greek banks and could prompt an exit of the European single currency.

In the past week alone Greeks have withdrawn some 1.5bn eur from atms. The liquidity squeeze that is currently causing the Greek banking system so much stress only magnified the importance of the task at hand during Thursdays deadline Eurogroup summit.

The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis at the meeting insisted that his Government had delivered a complete and viable solution to its European partners and IMF.

However the President of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem disagreed saying that the Greek Government needs to present a “credible” proposal and “It is still possible to find an agreement and extend the current programme before the end of the month, but the ball is clearly in the Greek court to seize that last opportunity.”

The Mediterranean nation now has a little under two weeks remaining to reach a solution with all its creditors. The deadline is June 30 when the current agreement ends and a payment that is a little over EUR 1.5 billion is due to be paid to the IMF.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde also dismissed the Greek Governments current proposals as not going far enough and at the same time urged that the dialogue continue so that an agreement is reached.

Three has been a definite shift in the discussions with a realization that the current Greek debt burden of euro 320 billion which is a huge debt 180% of GBP is unsustainable. To put Greek States debt obligations into some context the UK has a debt burden of roughly half this ratio when compared to its own GDP.

The urgent issue now is how Greece is going to find the funds to repay the IMF EUR 1.5 billion on June 30 and eur 3.5 billion on July 20 to the ECB and other central banks. Even if this payments are met the Greek Government has to find another 14 billion in repayments by the end 2015

The Greek Government has run out of money and this has been confirmed during the week by the Governor of the Bank of Greece. The only way the Greek Government will be able to able to make the pending payments in June and July is if the last tranche of some eur 7.2 billion of the current bailout programme is released. However for this to happen the Europeans want the Greek Government to implement economic changes in areas such as pensions, VAT and the budget surplus. Such a move would be against the electoral promises made by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and another bitter pill for the Greek public to swallow.

So we are now left with the biggest high stakes games of chicken. At stake is not only the continued membership of Greece in the Eurozone but also eur 320 billion of European tax payer’s money. The aftermath of a Grexit is difficult to comprehend but the idea that the effects would be contained ignore the potential of a market overreaction that pushes other periphery countries also to the brink of disaster.

What is more worrisome for the West is the relationship between the Greek and Russian Governments. The close cultural and historic ties between both countries could just push Greece further to the east politically.

The Tsipras Government was never elected on a platform of agreement or Grexit. Therefore it is not his decision to plan or by accident trigger a Greek exit from the Eurozone system. However with time running out a bold decision has to be made.

The logical decision would be for the Europeans offering a completion of the current bailout programme in exchange for the reforms they demand and a pledge to restructure the debt burden.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1516

Target 2: 1.1198

Projected range: 0.0159 ATR

Daily control level: 1.1200

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.6020

Target 2: 1.5740

Projected range: 0.0140 ATR

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.03

Target 2: 121.89

Projected range: 1.07 ATR

Daily control level: 124.50

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9328

Target 2: 0.9096

Projected range: 0.0116 ATR

Daily control level: 0.9335

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.2324

Target 2: 1.2118

Projected range: 0.0103 ATR

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7904

Target 2: 0.7694

Projected range: 0.0105 ATR

Daily control level: 0.7640

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1214.62

Target 2: 1188.74

Projected range: 12.94 ATR

Daily control level: 1175.30

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 62.12

Target 2: 58.95

Projected range: 1.59 ATR

Daily control level: 61.50

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acfx · Jun 22, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.06.2015

Without doubt today’s Eurogroup meeting and European Summit will be dominated by one major point of discussion. The Greek debt crisis.

The talks have now entered a critical period due to the time constraints that dictate that a solution must be found in the coming days.

With the Greek Government obliged to make a payment to the IMF of EUR 1.6 billion by June 30 and with the current debt programme ending on the same day, the need to find a solution that satisfies all the parties has taken on a critical importance.

The Greek Government has to offer enough compromises to its creditors so that it can receive the last tranche of EUR 7.2 billion from the European Union. Without these funds it is doubtful the Greek Government will have the means to avert a default to the IMF.

If the Greek Government was to default on its debt obligation to the IMF on June 30 it can be assumed that the European Central Bank boss, Mr. Mario Draghi would pull the plug on Greek banks which are presently suffering the effects on a run as frightened depositors pull their funds.

The ECB has injected large amounts of capital into Greek banks through its ELA mechanism. Without the emergency liquidity it would only be a matter of days for a full scale banking collapse grips this crucial sector of the economy.

The Greek Government having taken on the seriousness of its current financial predicament delivered a new plan to its creditors. No firm details have emerged of the latest Greek plan. From a positive aspect Mr. Martin Selmayr of the European Commission said it is a “good basis for progress”.

However the Greek Government will have to make large compromises on pensions and the public sector for any deal to be agreed. It is unclear how far the SYRIZA Government will sacrifice the wishes of its rank and file party members and voters to push through a deal.

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will try to limit the fall out of a massive U-turn by pinning his hopes on a review and restructuring of the Greek debt once the current crisis has been averted.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1520

Target 2: 1.1230

Projected range: 0.0144 ATR

Daily control level: 1.1290

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.6005

Target 2: 1.5740

Projected range: 0.0131 ATR

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.95

Target 2: 121.90

Projected range: 1.03 ATR

Daily control level: 123.50

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9275

Target 2: 0.9060

Projected range: 0.0110 ATR

Daily control level: 0.9230

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.2360

Target 2: 1.2165

Projected range: 0098 ATR

Daily control level: 1.2300

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7860

Target 2: 0.7670

Projected range: 0.0096

Daily control level: 0.7750

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1212.60

Target 2: 1187.20

Projected range: 12.69

Daily control level: 1205.85

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 61.04

Target 2: 57.80

Projected range: 1.62 ATR

Daily control level: 61.50

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acfx · Jun 23, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.06.2015

With the clock counting down to the June 30 deadline in would appear that the proposal made by the Greek Government over the weekend has added new impetus into the debt negotiations.

On June 30 the current bailout programme comes to a close. If the Government of Alexis Tsipras can reach an agreement by this date then the final tranche of EUR 7.2 billion will be released to it.

This payment will enable the Greek Government to fulfil its obligation to the IMF and make a payment of EUR 1.6 billion.

The new proposal which was submitted by the SYRIZA administration has offered some concessions to the Eurogroup and IMF. These concession include new taxes on the well off and businesses and selective increases in VAT. However the red lines of no reductions in Public Sector wages and Pensions remain.

The current proposal will undoubtedly help in contributing a budget surplus but the idea of hitting the higher earners and businesses could have a retrograde effect in the long run. The new taxes could lead to the brightest minds leaving the country and profitable businesses transferring their tax obligations to lower cost centres.

A move to encourage business and entrepreneurship by the rewarding and not penalizing success should have been sought. This policy that has been adopted by recent Conservative Governments in the United Kingdom with a great deal of success and was a key component of an economic policy which led to a revival of the United Kingdom’s economy.

Unfortunately the Greek Government has found it hard to release itself of the shackles that ties it to its far left roots. In the spirit of compromise having a proposal be it a mediocre one agreed upon will avert the current crisis.

It is hoped however that post June 30 that the current Greek Government could begin to adopt more business and investment friendly policies. This would go hand in hand with a thorough review of the public sector and pension system. Furthermore there needs to be a commitment to bring the privatizations of state enterprises that is now on hold back on track.

In exchange for the above the creditors will offer much needed and overdue debt restructuring.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1480

Target 2: 1.1200

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140

Daily control level: 1.1410

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5952

Target 2: 1.5690

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.5905

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.39

Target 2: 122.33

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03

Daily control level: 122.45

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour:

Target 1: 0.9323

Target 2: 0.9103

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 0.9150

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2406

Target 2: 1.2212

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.2200

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7823

Target 2: 0.7629

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 0.7795

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1198.48

Target 2: 1172.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.82

Daily control level: 1205.85

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 61.77

Target 2: 58.63

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57

Daily control level: 61.90

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acfx · Jun 24, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.06.2015

After what seems an eternity of talking and bickering between the Greek Government and its creditors it looks like we will finally have a deal that saves Greece from the clutches of a debt default and the inevitable fallout out of the Euro area.

A deal is expected to be agreed upon within the coming days. However the prospect of getting the legislation passed through the parliaments of member states of the Eurozone could turn out to be a tricky undertaking.

It is not certain that all the individual governments can persuade their parliaments to back the legislation. Although it seems likely that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel will impose herself enough on her colleagues to ensure that the legislation is passed in the German Bundestag we may have surprises from belligerent northern European deputies who could decide that this deal is bad for Europe. The notable country that will keep markets on edge is Finland. This Finish Government has been a vocal critic of the Greek Government and has taken a harder the line than most of its European partners.

The other concern is of course what will happen in the Greek parliament. Although the Greek Government holds a large majority in the national legislature it is far from certain that the SYRIZA administration will receive unanimous backing from its rank and file elements. There is the prospect of the Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras having to request support from the opposition parties of the Greek establishment.

So with a deal likely on the cards the question is will approval be received in time for the payment of EUR 1.7 billion be made to the IMF? Probably not but this is a non-issue if it is certain that no barriers be it legislative or legal are put in the way of sealing this deal.

This leads us to the deal in question. It would appear that the Greek Government has offered enough concessions to its European partners to have a deal approved. That the Greek Government has given some ground on pensions by abolishing early retirement is a good move.

However of what benefit is it to penalize the wealthy and businesses that have annual net incomes of greater than EUR 500,000. These are the very persons and organizations that Greece needs to keep on side if the country is to move forward and out of this dreaded recession / depression.

The success stories of the Greek economy have an aversion to paying tax because they see a Greek Government that spends the funds at its disposal in a liberal manner on a bloated and inefficient public sector. Effectively for years the Greek Government has implemented a progressive tax policy where it taxes the rich and gives to those privileged enough to work for the Greek state.

The news that the SYRIZA administration will now target the rich will be greeted by cheers and laughter in the private banks, wealth management companies and accountancy practices in London, Luxembourg and Geneva. For sure accountants will be booking their flights to Athens and Mykonos over the coming days.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1307

Target 2: 1.1027

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0140

Daily control level: 1.1410

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5860

Target 2: 1.5598

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level:1.5905

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.96

Target 2: 122.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.03

Daily control level: 122.45

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9448

Target 2: 0.9222

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 0.9150

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2421

Target 2: 1.2227

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.2200

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7828

Target 2: 0.7642

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.7795

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1191.01

Target 2: 1165.49

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76

Daily control level: 1205.85

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 62.70

Target 2: 59.64

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53

Daily control level: 59

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acfx · Jun 25, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.06.2015

The hope and optimism that flooded through the markets over the likelihood that a resolution to the Greek debt crisis has faded away. The mood has changed as the reality that the Greek Government and the creditors are not even on the same book let alone the same page.

Meetings late into the night between the European Commission, European Central Bank and the Greek Government did not lead as expected to a breakthrough.

The collapse in the talks was triggered by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has questioned the ability of the Greek Government to increase revenues through the imposition of higher taxes on the wealthy and Businesses.

Prior Greek Governments had claimed that by targeting the enormous Greek black economy that they would be able to increase revenues and reduce the deficit. However attempts at reforming tax collection in Greece have so far failed. Therefore the IMF felt that the Greek offer to increase tax revenues could not guarantee the necessary outcome.

A more balanced plan that brought the Greek pension system in line with rest of Europe and a concerted effort to trim the public sector is needed. However the SYRIZA administration decided to stick to its red lines which are a product of its ideological stance and refused to budge on reforming these two burdensome sectors of the Greek economy.

The preference in the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras words was to place the burden of further austerity on those groups which had suffered the least during the shock of the this long drawn out crisis. I am still not sure how adding an extra burden on businesses will encourage growth and employment in the Greek economy.

As the June 30 deadline draws ever closer the flurry of meetings and activity is increasing with Alexis Tsipras is due meet the creditors in the Morning. The deluge of news has of course added volatility to the markets. These current market conditions should continue up to the end of month deadline.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1332

Target 2: 1.1078

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

Daily control level: 1.1235

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5832

Target 2: 1.5582

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0125

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.80

Target 2: 122.88

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.96

Daily control level: 124.35

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9448

Target 2: 0.9222

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 0.9230

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2482

Target 2: 1.2286

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2275

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7791

Target 2: 0.7609

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 0.7770

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1187.27

Target 2: 1162.75

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.26

Daily control level: 1180.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 61.82

Target 2: 58.62

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.60

Daily control level: 59.00

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acfx · Jun 26, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.06.2015

The latest failure to reach an agreement which resolves the Greek debt crisis continues to tax the minds of European leaders and Finance Ministers.

It is also beginning to make the markets jittery and adding to market volatility and spikes in the price action.

There was much optimism earlier in the week with the Greek Government presenting what many saw as the first serious proposal since they came to power five months ago.

The IMF however baulked at the Greek plan which they felt was heavy on tax increases and light on budget cuts.

The Greek Government is unwilling to cross its red lines of cutting pensions and salaries or head counts in the public sector.

This has led the IMF to the conclusion that the math simple does not add up and that the Greek Government will not be able to boost revenues through tax increases.

Far from it, increasing taxes on the wealthy and businesses could actually stifle economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund’s aim is for the Greek Government to create a plan that would allow for stable future budgets and the generation of budget surpluses.

Interestingly unlike its fellow creditors made up of European Union member states the IMF has promoted the idea of debt relief. The Greek debt is astronomical for an economy of its size and the IMF has correctly recognized that this debt is unmanageable.

The size of the Greek public debt is not the fault of the current Greek Government. The current crisis is due to the borrow and spend policies of prior PASOK and Nea Democratia Governments.

However, unfortunately this Greek Government needs to reach an agreement by June 30 if it is going to avoid defaulting to the IMF.

Therefore a compromise position has to be found that ticks all the boxes of the international creditors to the Greek Government.

This will mean the Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras backing down and presenting and unpalatable agreement to SYRIZA members of Parliament in the Greek legislature.

With the discussion having moved forward somewhat in recent weeks, it would appear that debt relief is now on the agenda.

What we really need to see now is an agreement which states that debt relief will be discussed if the Greek Government agrees to the reforms that are being promoted by the IMF and the Europeans.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1321

Target 2: 1.1087

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0117

Daily control level: 1.2350

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5870

Target 2: 1.5626

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 124.53

Target 2: 122.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91

Daily control level: 124.35

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9461

Target 2: 0.9265

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 0.9320

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2423

Target 2: 1.2227

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.2275

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7798

Target 2: 0.7624

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.7770

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1185.33

Target 2: 1160.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.24

Daily control level: 1180.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 61.12

Target 2: 58.18

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

Daily control level: 59.00

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acfx · Jun 29, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.06.2015

It has been rumored for weeks and now these very rumors have come true. The Greek Government has announced capital controls on its banks. The move taken by the Greek Government was not a surprise and inevitable. There had been some hope that the European Central Bank would continue to support the country’s banking system through its emergency liquidity programme.

However the ELA programme was introduced to assist solvent banks that were suffering from the effects of a short term liquidity crisis and was never meant to be used as a tool to support one or other political agenda. Mean it or not the ECB chief Mario Draghi has taken a decision that sends the Greek State closer to the precipice and it only needs the slightest of pushes for the first sovereign default to occur within the Eurozone.

With the ELA capped by the ECB, what is even more upsetting for a Greek Government that campaigned on an election promise of no more debt is that if Greece does default the EUR 89 billion that the Greek banking system currently owes to the ECB will be added to the Greek national debt of EUR 323 billion.

The announcement by the Greek Government of capital controls on its banks now means that ordinary citizens can only withdraw EUR 60 a day. The Greek Prime Minister said “In the coming days, what is needed is patience and composure. The bank deposits of the Greek people are fully secure”. However he did not add that the deposits will be in Drachma.

So with 5 months of wasted opportunities we have come to the point where the Greek Government has to find EUR 1.6 billion to pay to the IMF by tomorrow June 30. It became obvious to all that as this deadline neared the Greek Government had no intention of making this payment without a new deal that solves the issue of debt viability.

The Greek Government has its red line that it does not want to cross. This being that those who have suffered the most during the long and drawn out recession, the pensioners and the public sector workers should not be hit.

It was the Greek Government’s preference that the burden be shared among the countries wealthy and businesses. I am very much against this policy as I feel that the motor of any successful economy are the middle classes and viable businesses.

I had a long discussion about this very subject over the weekend with a friend who holds a senior position in a successful Greek shipping company in Athens. When the subject of public sector salaries came up he said that state employees in the past had enjoyed privileges which they obtained through political favor but those days have long gone with salaries having been cut on average by some 40%. As for the pensioners, their majority of retirees are paid small monthly amounts and have to support with this money their extended family of unemployed sons and daughters.

He went on further to say that the current Government for all its failings had won the election because the political establishment of Greece had failed to stand up for the rights of its citizens. In my view SYRIZA promised the moon and the stars to the Greek people. Its election promises were never going to be achievable in the face of stiff opposition of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her political allies.

However there was a need to revisit the whole concept of European austerity as the medicine that was administered was poisoning the patient. The leaders of Europe have proclaimed on many occasions through the debt discussions that austerity had worked for Spain, Portugal and Ireland but has it in reality? I just see a sticking plastered that covers a large and festering wound.

What has followed on from austerity is the ECB now embarking on a plan of Quantitative Easing which generates even more debt. The longer term effects of QE are not known and it is unclear if the end result will be a stronger Europe. Do we actually need any more debt added to the already considerable pile that is owed?

Greece is an experiment on austerity taken to the extremes. An experiment that has gone on for too long, has effected too many people with disastrous consequences and destroyed the hopes and aspirations of the youth of an entire country.

The European project was meant to bring the nations of this continent together not to cause divisions of the haves and have nots. The Euro was good for only one country, the Germany. German industry through the cheap Euro allowed it to export BMW’s and Mercs to Greece and Spain. The citizens of these countries could afford to buy products because money was being thrown at them in the form of credit to both individuals and governments. In hindsight the debt should never have been taken but at the same time the big banks of Germany and France should have been more cautious with their policy on lending.

The current Greek Government did not create this debt mountain. This was due to the cosy relationship between successive Greek establishment governments and the Banks of Northern Europe. The SYRIZA government had every right to question the agreements that had been signed in the name of the Greek people because the leaders of PASOK and New Democracy had made a pig’s ear of what had gone on before.

I had mentioned in prior posts that a referendum was a strong possibility. The proposals on offer cut through the red lines of the SYRIZA Government. Prime Minister Tsipras had no other option but to put the proposal to the people. However capital controls create stark reality for Greek people leading up to referendum and could taint the outcome of the vote.

What we now have is a clash of ideologies. Will the democratic right of the Greek people prevail or will the referendum force the electorate to capitulate and vote in a plan that they do not like? I think that fear of a reintroduction of a much devalued Drachma would push the Greek population to vote yes.

If the “YES” vote wins on Sunday, the damage to the SYRIZA party would be immense. The scenario of the Prime Minister with views that reside on the radical left of the political spectrum having to implement policies of austerity does not sound a viable solution. I see another election being called shortly.

On the other hand, the Greek people are well known for their independent spirit. Although the “No” vote would cause the Greek people a lot of pain I believe that the damage caused to the Euro could have a wider impact. This is due to the shadow that the Spanish general election casts over the Euro project. In December Spain holds general elections. A victory for SYRIZA in Greece will become a beacon of hope for Podemos in Spain but also for populist groups of the left and right throughout Europe. The nightmare scenario for Chancellor Merkel is for Podemos to be victorious in Spain taking the whole European debt crisis to another level.

What is needed is a new plan for Europe. I argued for this when the Greek debt crisis once more took centre stage earlier in the year. There needs to be a real plan to address the huge sovereign debt levels throughout Europe. Time has become a commodity in short supply with deadline after deadline pushing the European project from crisis to crisis.

However time in reality is the one commodity that we have in abundance. The solution is very simple, create a more robust frame work for Eurozone sovereign debt and budget deficits and extend the tenure of the debt to 30, 50 or even 100 years. Such a move would allow for the playing field in Europe to be leveled and allow all the citizens of this great continent to work and prosper.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1131

Target 2: 1.0877

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0127

Daily control level: 1.2350

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5804

Target 2: 1.5564

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0120

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.73

Target 2: 121.73

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.00

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9484

Target 2: 1.223

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.9320

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acfx · Jun 29, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.06.2015

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2430

Target 2: 1.2238

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.2275

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7798

Target 2: 0.7624

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.7770

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1197.03

Target 2: 1171.51

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.76

Daily control level: 1170.45

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 60.27

Target 2: 57.39

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

Daily control level: 60.00

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acfx · Jun 30, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.06.2015

The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday issued a statement that was a clear warning to the Greek people.

A “No” vote “would signal that Greece wants to distance itself from the euro zone and Europe”.

This is a comment that I take great exception to. There is no mechanism or legal remedy that will force Greece out of the Eurozone.

A few years ago the city of Detroit was declared Bankrupt and there are now fears that the US state of California could go the same way. There was never any talk of Detroit printing its own currency and I am sure that the administration of California is not contemplating the introduction of its own Dollar.

The Balkan country of Montenegro does not have its own currency. Even though it is not a member of either the European Union or Eurozone the Montenegro Government has decided to adopt the Euro for reasons of price stability.

The Greek Government will therefore have no legal obligation to ditch the Euro however in reality it would be difficult to see how the State can carry on and honor its obligations to its public servants, pensioners and local creditors.

In this case the Greek Government may have to resort to printing a new Drachma that will run in parallel to the Euro. Effectively Greece will have a duel currency system.

Such a system has existed for many years in Central and Latin America where local currency is legal tender but businesses prefer to transact in US Dollar.

As for Greece being forced out of Europe Juncker has overstated the consequences of a “No” vote as the European Union consists of countries that belong to the Euro area and others such as the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden who have retained their local currency.
Juncker’s comments were made to influence the democratic process in a sovereign nation within the European Union and as such is bordering into the realms of political interference.

These comments will not be the last made over the coming days leading up to Sunday’s referendum vote. Talk of exiting the Eurozone will now be weighing heavy in the thoughts of the Greek electorate. A Vote for “No” campaign will inevitably force the Greek Government to introduce a new local currency whereas a “Yes” vote will condemn Greece to even more austerity and social unrest.

If I was a citizen of Greece I would be very split on how to vote and I assume the majority of Greeks would probably have the same feelings. Logically for all the promise of more austerity a “Yes” vote at least maintains the status quo. It can only be hoped that post the election the decision makers in Brussel and Berlin take note of what has gone and make a serious effort to tackle the European Union’s chronic debt problem.

My heart however is telling me to vote “No” and take my chances outside the Eurozone. If the Germans want their money back then they need to address the concerns and worries of the Greek people.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1367

Target 2: 1.1103

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

Daily control level: 1.0950

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5850

Target 2: 1.5624

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.42

Target 2: 121.64

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.89

Daily control level: 124.50

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9356

Target 2: 0.9140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 0.9430

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2495

Target 2: 1.2311

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 1.2300

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7765

Target 2: 0.7591

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.7770

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1192.12

Target 2: 1167.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11

Daily control level: 1170.45

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 59.65

Target 2: 56.89

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.38

Daily control level: 59.00

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acfx · Jul 1, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.07.2015

Last night the deadline for a EUR1.6 billion payment came and went with no payment made by the Greek Government.

With further deadlines of larger payments to the ECB on the horizon in the middle of July the door is ajar and a Grexit is becoming a strong possibility.

So with so much at stake Greeks last night took to the streets of Athens and demonstrated outside the Greek Parliament at Sygntama Square.

However it was not the pro Government supporters who turned up but supports of the “YES” campaign.

There are now genuine fears that a “NO” vote would send Greece down the road to bankruptcy and international financial isolation.

This process has already started. As Greeks line up to withdraw their EUR 60 daily limit from fast emptying cash machines the news that the European Central Bank has effectively cut the Greek Banking system adrift will only heighten the sense of anxiety among the general public.

There are hopes that between now and Sunday a rabbit is pulled out of the hat and an agreement is found but the Europeans are now in no mood to compromise and the Greek Prime Minister has left himself with no room to manoeuvre.

So we are now heading into Sunday and the biggest decision the history of the European project and the recent history of Greece.

If the “NO” vote is victorious the Greek people will have to endure some harsher times before there is any economic recovery.

A “YES” vote will be also be a hollow and bitter victory as Greeks have to complete years of continued austerity.

A “YES” vote would also mean that the Tsipras experiment like most things that burn very bright is soon to be extinguished as the Greek Prime Minister will have little choice but take the decent decision and resign his post.

In reality neither decision to vote “YES” or “NO” solves the countries or even Europe’s problems. If Greece had viable industries and export markets I would go with my heart and urge that the Greek people vote “NO”.

However Greece is no Russia of the late 1990’s. Set adrift from Europe I worry on the social impact that a “NO” vote will have. With huge youth unemployment a no vote will only act as a spur for an acceleration of emigration of the countries young and brightest to the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Canada and USA.

My head says vote “YES” and renegotiate within the European club so as to make the Greek debt viable in the longer term.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1274

Target 2: 1.1018

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.1275

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5822

Target 2: 1.5602

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.31

Target 2: 121.67

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9458

Target 2: 0.9242

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 0.9430

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2584

Target 2: 1.2396

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7788

Target 2: 0.7618

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7660

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1184.58

Target 2: 1160.36

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.11

Daily control level: 1187.90

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 60.41

Target 2: 57.54

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

Daily control level: 59.70

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acfx · Jul 2, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.07.2015

Today at 1:30pm London time the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Employment Change.

This statistic measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

Moreover, this crucial economic data is published shortly after the end of the month. The combination of earliness and importance causes this monthly release to have high impact on the foreign exchange markets.

The traders’ concerns about this figure come from the fact that job creation is a significant indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of overall economic activity.

The oscillations in the value of the indicator, which has been positive since November 2010, suggested tendency towards higher values during the second half of 2014 and 2015.

The last released statistic reached 280,000 individuals whereas the consensus number for the last month amounts to 231,000. If the actual figure turns out to be higher than what forecasts suggest, this release is likely to have a positive impact on the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Since Non-Farm Employment Change Report will be made public at the same time as data on U.S. monthly unemployment rate, USD currency pairs might experience higher volatility.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1180

Target 2: 1.0926

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0180

Daily control level: 1.1150

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5723

Target 2: 1.5503

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0110

Daily control level: 1.5800

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.98

Target 2: 122.33

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.83

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9586

Target 2: 0.9372

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 0.9230

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2686

Target 2: 1.2492

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7729

Target 2: 0.7559

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7750

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1180.37

Target 2: 1156.03

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.17

Daily control level: 1179.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 58.40

Target 2: 55.36

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.52

Daily control level: 59.70

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acfx · Jul 3, 2015

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.07.2015

Today at 9.30am London time Markit Economics will release the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United Kingdom.

Markit Economics is an independent, global provider of some of the world’s most significant business surveys. Its indicators are closely watched by the financial market participants since they provide some of the earliest signals of economic performance and hence hints on possible economic policies.

Calculation of the PMI is based on data obtained through the survey of purchasing managers in the services industry. Respondents are asked to rate the relative level of general business conditions such as employment, production, prices, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The quick reaction of businesses to market conditions and the fact that their purchasing managers have the most relevant insight into the company’s view of these conditions are the reasons why the PMI is a leading indicator.

Therefore, this release is likely to have high impact on the value of the British pound.
Furthermore, values above 50.0 indicate industry expansion whereas values below this threshold suggest contraction.

Services PMI figures for the UK have been ranging constantly from 54.9 to 62.5 since June 2013. In the previous period of reference this index reached 56.5 level while the forecasts for the current period are more optimistic amounting to 57.4.

The actual level of this monthly indicator beating the expectations is interpreted as a good sign for the currency.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1207

Target 2: 1.0959

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.1150

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5712

Target 2: 1.5498

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.5735

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.88

Target 2: 122.08

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.85

Daily control level: 124.00

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9535

Target 2: 0.9329

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.9502

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.2639

Target 2: 1.2439

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.2350

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7721

Target 2: 0.7543

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7640

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1177.53

Target 2: 1154.01

Projected range in ATR’s: 11.76

Daily control level: 1179.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 57.94

Target 2: 54.88

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.53

Daily control level: 57.80

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