Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 24.02.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the February 28th deadline looming I would expect to see a resolution of this phase of Greek crisis to happen soon.

The price action is currently trading in a large 14 day range between 1.1300 and 1.1450.

A break of this range would potential give us a clue of the potential medium term directional momentum.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1450 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Today’s inflation hearings should give us some insight the Bank of England’s outlook with respect to the timing of interest rate rises.

However with elections due in May any increases could be put on hold until after the election.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD has bounced off its channel bottom and is retesting last weeks highs.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5320 level.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is this morning trading within a very narrow 6 day range.

Although the current price action is bullish we need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continues to trade higher following a bounce off its up channel.

I am this morning monitoring a potential test of the 0.9530 level.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9370 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues to trade within a daily range.

With the price action forming a double bottom above the 0.7630 level we require a penetration and sustained move above the 0.7875 level so as to maintain the current upside momentum.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7745 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold continues to trade lower with the price action remaining within a tight down channel.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

With the price action having resumed its prior bearish bias I am monitoring the potential for a a retest of this years lows.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 52.50 level.



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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 25.02.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterdays dovish testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman to the Senate has put the US Dollar this morning under pressure.

This news combined with the positive outcome to the Greek debt talks has sent the Euro higher in early trading.

The price action is currently trading in a large 14 day range between 1.1300 and 1.1450.

A break of this range would potential give us a clue of the potential medium term directional momentum.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1450 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The Pound this morning is trading higher following a bounce off its channel bottom with the price action taking out last weeks high.

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak this morning.

The market will await any comments he may have with respect to interest rates.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday we did see USDJPY pop up above the 119.40 level.

However the dovish testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman Yellen slapped USDJPY down under this level.

Although the current price action is bullish we still need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDCHF broke the bottom of its up channel.

Although this is not sufficient to change the trend from up to down this is a strong warning sign that a reversal is on the cards.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9370 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday AUDUSD experienced a strong upside reversal off the 0.7745 support level.

The bounce higher was accelerated by the news from the FOMC and the better than expected construction number.

The bounce higher has followed a double bottom that formed above the 0.7630 level with the move higher taking out the key 0.7875 resistance level.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7745 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Following a long downside correction Gold this morning has broken above its down channel.

We now require a move above the 1215.00 level as a confirmation that a rotation to the long side of the trade is under way.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday:

With the price action having resumed its prior bearish bias I am monitoring the potential for a a retest of this years lows.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour downtrend with the line of control at the 50.35 level.



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ACFX DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT – LONDON OPEN 27.02.2015



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday’s CPI data pushed traders to buy the US Dollar.

The effect was to push EURUSD through the bottom of its downward triangle and slash through the 1.1270 support level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1390 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The decline in the Pound accelerated following the CPI data.

This pushed GBPUSD to the bottom of its upward channel.

I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.

Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for Cable.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

We had lots of overnight data from Japan but this hardly moved the market.

As posted previously:

We did see USDJPY pop up above the 119.40 level.

However the dovish testimony by the Federal Reserve chairman Yellen slapped USDJPY down under this level.

Although the current price action is bullish we still need a move above the 119.40 resistance level would confirm that a new up trend is under way.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 118.25 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continues to staircase higher.

We did get a bit of a sell off following the inflation data.

This has pushed the price action back into the direction of the channel bottom.

I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.

Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for USDCHF.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The sell off against the US Dollar yesterday afternoon also effected the Aussie.

The price action collapsed to an area of strong support made up by two channel bottoms and a a prior weekly congestion level at 0.7800.

Buying has come into the market following the positive Private Sector Credit number.

I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.

Alternatively a breach of the channel bottom would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for AUDUSD.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7910 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

As posted previously Gold continues to propel itself higher on speculation that buying is originating in China.

Following the CPI data Gold did experience a strong pull back however support was found at the 1206.00 level.

I am this morning monitoring the price action for a bounce off this level.

Alternatively a breach of the 1206.00 level would open up the possibility that we see lower prices for Gold.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1201.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

High volatility in the Oil price has had the effect of creating a fairly distinct downward channel.

With the trend continuing to be negative I will this morning monitoring the price action for any signs of weakness as the price action trades up to its channel top.

Alternatively a breach of the channel top would open up the possibility that we see higher prices for Oil.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.25 level.


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MORNING BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 02.03.2015



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With all the main central banks due to make announcement and with it being NFP day this Friday it looks like to another volatile and hectic week in the life of a EURUSD trader.

The price action has now well and truly broken its triangle formation with this mornings price activity breaching Thursday’s low.

This opens up the possibility for a potential move down to the 1.1100 prior weekly swing level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1245 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the Bank of England Governor due to speak tomorrow the markets will be looking for signs of any hawkishness on interest rate policy.

We have had a strong pull back to the 1.5400 level which has broken the down channel.

However I am not not convinced that the down trend will continue.

I really want to see a sustained move under the 1.5400 level.

This leads us back tomorrow and the tone and the areas of grey in Mr. Carney’s testimony.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

During Friday afternoon the Dollar bulls took control of the market and pushed USDJPY higher.

This move as continued into this morning with USDJPY testing and trading above the 119.80 level.

The recent price action has now created a fairly broad up channel.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.10 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

The 0.9450 level did provide strong support and a base for higher prices which Friday’s price action testing last weeks high.

This mornings price action has completed the job by painting a new recent high and in the process creating a much more broader and potentially more sustainable up channel.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The markets would seem to have priced in a rate cut tomorrow by Australia Reserve Bank.

This could potentially be the reason behind the recent collapse in the value of the Aussie which has seen the price action breach the bottom of no less than two up channels.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7830 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold continues to trade higher in a staircase formation.

However the steepness of the up trend does cause me some concern.

I would therefore like to see a broadening of the up channel.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1204.00 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Friday’s price action has had the effect of breaching the large down channel.

Although this type of price action could be seen as a warning signal that the down trend is about to reverse I would really need to see a successful retest of the 49.80 level being the area of the most recent isolated high to be convinced that a new up trend is underway.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.03.2015






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD continues to trade in a pronounced down channel.

This has followed the break down from a large triangle formation

There is some support to be found at the 1.1150 level which needs to be overcome if the price action is to remain in the confines of its down channel.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1245 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday the Pound continues to trend in a bearish fashion today following the break down from its up channel.

However there is strong upside support at the 1.5300 area.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5455 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY overnight bounced off the area of its down channel bottom.

I require a move above this weeks high at 120.25 level to confirm that the up trend is continuing.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.

The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9450 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The increase in Australia GDP has helped push AUDUSD higher.

This followed yesterday’s surprise decision not to cut interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The price action is currently testing the 0.7830 resistance level.

A sustained move above this level will technically change the trend back to up.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7830 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

There has been an increase in market volatility following the break down from the small up channel.

Gold has now created two key points of interest.

These being long above 1223.00 and short beneath 1191.65.

Within this area there is a possibility that Gold will range.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1223.00 level.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil followed its breach of its down channel by trading above the last isolated low.

A continuation of the up move will require the price action to breach the 51.00 being Monday’s high.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.40 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.03.2015


EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the ECB meeting kicking off today in Nicosia, Cyprus traders will be awaiting news from the press conference.

The impending European stimulus has helped push EURUSD lower and towards the significant 1.1000 level.

EURUSD continues to trade in a pronounced down channel.

This has followed the break down from a large triangle formation

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1215 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Traders will be looking ahead to today’s MPC statement and will be eager to gauge the Bank of England’s plans on when interest rate hikes will kick in.

The price action having broken under the 1.5300 support level GBPUSD is this morning trading under the 1.5245 prior monthly prior support level.

I am this monitoring the price action for a continuation of the downward momentum.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has bounced off its channel bottom with the price action appearing to be increasingly bullish.

I require a move above this weeks high at 120.25 level to confirm that the up trend is continuing.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.

The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9610 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

There has been a high degree of market volatility following the surprise decision not to cut interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The price action initially took a bearish stance as it broke under its up channel but this has been followed by choppy price action between the 0.7800 and the 0.7850 level.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7800 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

There has been an increase in market volatility following the break down from the small up channel.

As the longer term trend continues to point down I will be monitoring the price action for a further move lower.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil continues to experience a mini rally with the price action forming a fairly obvious up channel.

The move higher has also turned the four hour trend to up.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.50 level.




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.03.2015



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the ECB confirming the date that Euro stimulus will begin the focus now falls on what is the next key level of support.

The obvious level be 1.1000. As it is NFP day good US job numbers combined with a pick up in average earnings could see this level being breached during today’s trading.

The recent activity has now formed two pronounced down channels around the price action.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1100 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The price action continues to trade within a fairly steep down channel.

GBPUSD having broken under the 1.5300 support level the price action is this morning trading under the 1.5245 prior monthly prior support level.

I am this monitoring the price action for a continuation of the downward momentum.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5400 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Following the bounce of its channel bottom USDJPY has once again traded above the most recent isolated high.

With the trend being so bullish the expectation is that we continue to see higher prices.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.40 level.



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.

The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.

However with news soon to be released by the SNB on the level of its foreign currency reserves there will be market interest on the level and pace of buying of the Euro by the Swiss central bank.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9610 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The Aussie Dollar continues to experience a great deal of market volatility.

This is partly driven by domestic news and partly by events in China.

With the price action now trading in a tight six day range we require resolution by the price action either sustaining a higher or lower break.

The US jobs numbers could give the market the jolt it needs.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7850 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

As posted previously previously:

There has been an increase in market volatility following the break down from the small up channel.

As the longer term trend continues to point down I will be monitoring the price action for a further move lower.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1215.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil continues to experience a mini rally with the price action forming a fairly obvious up channel.

However this morning the price action is making an attempt to break down from its up channel.

That the price action is trending higher on the 4 hour chart and the attempting to paint a higher low on the daily does give the bulls some room to be optimistic.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.80 level.




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Euro stimulus gets under the way today.

With the prospect of the ECB pumping into the Eurozone some EUR60 billion per month of fresh liquidity one can only anticipate what the longer terms effect this will have on the value of the Euro.

Friday’s NFP number well and truly pushed EURUSD through the 1.1000 floor.

The next support level being the 1.0760 level being a prior weekly swing point.

A breach of this level could see EURUSD test the 1.0600 level being a monthly trend line.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1100 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD dropped aggressively off the back of the US job data.

The price action continues to trade within a fairly steep down channel.

I am this monitoring the price action for a continuation of the downward momentum.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5260 level.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

The continued rise of the US Dollar sent USDJPY on Friday through the 120.00 level.

Although there was a brief flirtation that saw the price action trade above the 121.00 level the price action subsequently experienced a minor correction.

I am this morning monitoring the price action for a resumption of positive directional momentum.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Friday’s NFP news led to USDCHF experiencing an acceleration of the current up trend.

USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.

The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

Due to the bullishness of this formation I will be monitoring the price action for a continuation of the current trend.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9715 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The US Jobs number pushed AUDUSD out of its congestion range and sent it lower.

A new down channel has now formed.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7850 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

The prospects of higher US interest rates sent Gold lower on Friday.

However the aggressiveness of the move lower could open up the possibility that Gold experiences a good bounce.

As the longer term trend continues to point down I will be monitoring the price action for a further move lower.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1209.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Friday’s break down from the brief up channel that was created would indicate that the prior down trend has once again resumed.

However there is some optimism remaining for Oil Bulls with the price action on the daily chart having broken above the top if its large down channel.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 51.00 level.




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The Euro continues to grind down lower and at one point in early morning trading breached the 1.0800 level.

However over the past hour we have seen EURUSD experience a minor bounce off this area.

A continuation of the move higher could see EURUSD trade back up to the the upper level of its shorter down channel and the 1.0915 resistance level.

However with the price action being so negative a continuation of the current down trend is a strong possibility.

The shorting of rallies will therefore most probably be the more logical option rather than to try to take pips from the long side of the trade.

The next support level being the 1.0760 level being a prior weekly swing point.

A breach of this level could see EURUSD test the 1.0600 level being a monthly trend line.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Overnight GBPUSD traded back up to its channel top.

However this level appeared to be a good area for the Bears to add more short positions.

A continuation of the move down could see a second attempt to test the 1.5000 level.

However over the past hour GBPUSD has been attempting to penetrate its upper channel boundary.

A breach of this level could see GBPUSD paint a higher low formation that creates a base for higher prices.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY continues to accelerate higher.

However the price action this morning is taking a breather at the 121.80 resistance level being a prior weekly swing point.

With the price action being so extended there is a possibility that we see some down to sideways corrective movement.

Alternatively with the trend being so bullish an attempt to sustain a move above the 121.80 level should not be ruled out.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF got its break above the 0.9840 resistance level and is now testing the 0.9900 level.

With the price action however experiencing such a strong up move there is a possibility that USDCHF may find it difficult to sustain a move above the 0.9920 prior resistance level.

USDCHF continues to trade in a broad up channel.

The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The good China CPI numbers did nothing to bolster the AUDUSD as the price action continued to slump.

However we did get a bounce off the 0.7630 weekly level.

With the price action being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we get a corrective bounce back up to the channel top at the 0.7700 level.

However the Bears are obviously in control therefore the logic of shortening rallies would potentially be the more appropriate policy.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold has continued to trade lower early in the European session.

However the price action is now testing a prior weekly support level at the 1157.00.

A penetration of this level could see Gold test the 1133.70 support level.

Alternatively with Gold being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we see a corrective pullback back up to the 1175.00 resistance level.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has experienced some messy price action following the break down from its mini up channel.

This stems from the confusion being created by the daily chart which is showing some signs of bullishness following the price action breaking above its down channel.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD continues with its downward drive as it tests the 1.0650 area.

With seemingly no bulls in sight it would appear that there is no stopping the Euro dropping towards the 1.0570 major support level.

A break of this level would alert the markets that a move to parity is on the cards.

However there are major hurdles in the form of weekly swing levels to be found at the 1.0340, 1.0210 and 1.0090 areas.

A bounce off support could see EURUSD retest the 1.0760 resistance level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday’s hawkish speech by the Bank of England boss has helped establish a base at the 1.5000 area.

This morning GBPUSD has broken above its down channel and painted a double bottom formation.

I am currently monitoring the price action for a potential test of the 1.5140 level.

Alternatively a resumption of the downward pressure could see GBPUSD reattempt to test the 1.5000 level.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDJPY experienced a strong bounce within its upward channel.

I am currently monitoring the price action for a test of yesterday’s high in the 122.00 area.

Alternatively there is still room for the price action to retest the channel bottom.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 119.80 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has experienced a remarkable recovery and this morning is trading above the 1.0000 parity level.

The price action has formed a typical staircase formation.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is experiencing some messy prices action as any minor rallies are slapped down by the bears.

As the price action being so overly bearish there is a possibility that we get a corrective bounce back up to the channel top.

However the Bears are obviously in control therefore the logic of shortening rallies would potentially be the more appropriate policy.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

As posted previously Gold continues to bounce off the prior weekly support level at the 1157.00.

I am now monitoring a potential move back up the 1175.00 resistance level.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil continues to trade lower this morning.

This is testing the patience of the Bulls who hoped that a daily upside channel break was a sign that a base was about to form.

However the daily break is still intact and there is a possibility that we do eventually see higher prices.

A move beneath the 47.80 level will negate this scenarios and put the control back firmly in the hands of the sellers.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.03.2015





EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade lower.

However this morning EURUSD has found some support around the 1.0500 area and is experiencing a moderate bounce.

The area of 1.0500 to 1.0600 is significant.

The reason for this is that this area coincides with a prior weekly swing level and a multiple year trend line support.

This well established level of support could act as a catalyst for EURUSD to trade higher into the 1.0760 resistance level and the short length channel top.

However with the market being so bearish the lower risk policy would be to sell into strength.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0915 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday the Pound took a bit of a tumble as the downward momentum accelerated.

However yesterday’s down move was halted at the 1.4885 weekly support level.

This morning GBPUSD is now experiencing a minor rally as the price action tests the 1.5000 level and its channel top.

A break above the down channel could see GBPUSD test the 1.5140 resistance level.

However with Cable trading in such an obvious down trend a potentially less riskier strategy would be to sell into strength.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5140 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

The overnight better than expected Japan Consumer Confidence numbers has had the effect of limiting the rise of USDJPY.

This morning USDJPY is experiencing a strong sell off.

However with support in the form of the 120.70 weekly swing level and the channel bottom being fairly close and with the trend being so obviously bullish I would looking for a bounce off these areas.

Alternatively a penetration of the channel bottom could open up the possibility of a further decline down to the 119.80 level.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 120.70 level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

What goes up must come down and this is the case with the Swissy.

USDCHF has this morning experienced at first site collapse from its lofty heights of 1.0125.

However there are two monthly support levels at the 0.9970 and 0.9920 to be overcome if the downward momentum is to continue.

Furthermore with the trend being so bullish buying into weakness such as this mornings dip lower could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

Alternatively the move down has been fairly dramatic therefore a continuation of this downward momentum could potentially take USDCHF to the area of the current price actions channel bottom.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9840 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Better than expected Australian employment numbers have give AUDUSD a strong boost during the early morning trade.

The move higher is now approaching the area of the 0.7700 resistance level and channel top.

Furthermore with the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

However with the up move being fairly dramatic there is a possibility that the penetration of the channel top could act as a catalyst for a continuation of the move higher.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold continues to staircase lower.

The move lower has taken the price action into the area of Novembers lows.

With the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

However a test of the 1170.40 swing point could open up the possibility for a move towards the 1175.00 and the current price action channel top.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1175.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil yesterday penetrated the recent 47.80 lower.

This has had the effect of expanding the down trending price channel.

However this morning the price action has penetrated above its minor channel top.

I am now monitoring the price action for a possible test of the 49.00 level.

With the trend being so bearish selling into weakness such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 49.00 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2015



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With EURUSD now trading under the significant 1.0500 to 1.0600 levels it looks increasing likely that an attempt to push EURUSD to parity will be made.

However there are many hurdles first need to be overcome in the form of three prior weekly support levels at the 1.0340, 1.0210, 1.0090 areas.

We may see a correction higher however thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0685 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD this morning has experienced a mini rally .

However with the price action being so bearish a resumption of the down trend should not be discounted.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5000 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDJPY has traded back down to its channel bottom.

With the macro trend being so bullish this area could potential offer an ideal location to add longs.

However with the price action having also penetrated the channel bottom a move beneath the recent low in the 121.00 area could signal the beginning of a much stronger corrective pull back.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has experienced a strong bounce off the 0.9970 support area.

However the resulting up move was not able to penetrate the 1.0125 prior high.

With the price action now painting a double top there is a possibility that the up trend in USDCHF is done for now.

However we first need to see a penetration of the channel bottom and the 0.9970 support area to confirm this scenario.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has this morning broken above its down channel top.

Although technically this does not indicate a change of trend the break above the channel does signal the potential for further upside momentum.

However confirmation is now required that this up move will continue and this will happen if we see a sustained breached of the high at the 0.7740 level.

In the mean time with the trend continuing to be down the strategy of selling into strength could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7740 level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

With Gold trading close to Novembers low which can be found at the 1133.70 level the price action over the past few days has been unable to breach the 1147.50 being the most recent low.

With a potential minor double bottom forming I am monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the 1166.35 resistance level.

A breach of this level opens up the possibility of a continuation of the up move to the channel top at the 1175.00 level.

However with the trend being so bearish selling into strength such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

News that storage capacity is now running low has added to the downward pressure Oil is experiencing.

Oil on Friday broke through the 46.75 level.

The breach of this level opens up the possibility for a test of the most recent low at 43.55 area.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 48.50 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.03.2015





EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the markets awaiting news of tomorrows FOMC statement EURUSD has been trading higher due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will not drop the word “patient” as a policy making tool.

The price action is currently trading up to the its downward channel top.

With the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0685 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The UK budget is to be released tomorrow and Cable seems to be rising.

With this budget being the last before the next general election the possibility of give away’s being handed to the electorate and business could potential drive the Pound higher.

This morning GBPUSD has broken above its downward channel. This is an early indication that positive bias could be returning to the Pound.

However we I would like first to to see a weak pullback that fails to test the prior low of 1.4700 to happen before taking a further look at the long side of the trade.

That GBPUSD is trading in a very strong down trend the strategy that has worked thus far has been to sell into strength and this could possibly remain a profitable opportunity.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.5000 level.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday USDJPY has traded back down to its channel bottom.

With the macro trend being so bullish this area could potential offer an ideal location to add longs.

However with the price action having also penetrated the channel bottom a move beneath the recent low in the 121.00 area could signal the beginning of a much stronger corrective pull back.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday USDCHF has experienced a strong bounce off the 0.9970 support area.

However the resulting up move was not able to penetrate the 1.0125 prior high.

With the price action now painting a double top there is a possibility that the up trend in USDCHF is done for now.

However we first need to see a penetration of the channel bottom and the 0.9970 support area to confirm this scenario.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues to trade above the top of its down channel.

Although technically this does not indicate a change of trend the break above the channel does signal the potential for further upside momentum.

However confirmation is now required that this up move will continue and this will happen if we see a sustained breached of the high at the 0.7740 level.

In the mean time with the trend continuing to be down the strategy of selling into strength could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday Gold istrading close to Novembers low which can be found at the 1133.70 level the price action over the past few days has been unable to breach the 1147.50 being the most recent low.

With a potential minor double bottom forming I am monitoring the price action for a potential move back up to the 1166.35 resistance level.

A breach of this level opens up the possibility of a continuation of the up move to the channel top at the 1175.00 level.

However with the trend being so bearish selling into strength such as this mornings move higher could possibly offer profitable opportunities.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday’s move lower for Oil tested the US$43.57 level being the prior low of January 29.

This morning the price action is currently trading under this level at US$43.50.

With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

It is Federal Reserve Statement day and the markets are expecting that the word patient is to be dropped.

However there is a growing concern over the strength of the US Dollar and this could limit the room of maneuver for the Fed Boss Jane Yellen to act.

In terms of price action EURUSD has painted a higher low and higher high swing which resulted in an initial test of the channel top.

That the price action is struggling to sustain an meaningful move beneath the 1.0600 level which lines up with multiple year support should give the bulls lots of encouragement.

Alternatively with the market being so bearish thus far corrective rallies have been used as opportunities to short EURUSD and this would logically seem the most appropriate strategy to continue to pursue.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0500 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has been trading above the 1.4700 level as traders await the UK’s annual budget.

The price action continues to hug the top of the down channel and it appears that there is an attempt to print a higher low formation.

A break out of the down channel could signal higher prices and an attempt to test the 1.4810 level.

Alternatively with the trend being so bearish selling into strength being could offer potential opportunities.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

As posted previously with USDJPY having broken above its recently formed down there is a strong possibility that we we a resumption of the prior up trend.

Confirmation that such a move is under way would require a break above the 121.50 level.

Alternatively a move back into the down channel followed by a breach of the last isolated low at 121.08 level could signal a continuation of lower prices.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday USDCHF has this morning broken down from a converging triangle formation.

The move lower has traded under the 1.0020 has technically changed the trend to down.

However with the prior up trend being so bullish I am monitoring the price action as it now tests the channel bottom as this area could offer significant support.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Although AUDUSD has broken above its down channel we have yet to see any follow through.

The price action has now consolidated within a a tight triangle formation.

I will be today monitoring the price action for tests of the triangle pattern as this could indicate the direction of the next move.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold has broken its converging triangle formation to the down side.

With the trend being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a possible continuation of the downward momentum.

However as posted previously Gold is trading close to November’s low which can be found at the 1133.70 level and this could offer considerable support.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1166.35 level.



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

OILUSD is finding it increasingly difficult to trade higher with every corrective rally slammed down hard by the bears.

With the price action being so bearish a continuation of the downward momentum is a possibility.

This afternoons Crude Oil Inventory report could add further downward pressure on the price of Oil.

Oil is now entering territory not seen since the last financial crisis with support levels at the US$40.85 level and there are still no bulls in sight to stem this tide.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 44.75 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 19.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

There has been over the past few trading sessions a rotation back into the Euro and this could have been seen by the higher low and higher high formation and the subsequent break in the channel top.

However yesterday’s Fed statement had a huge impact on the Forex markets as the modification of strategy meant that interest policy continues to remains dovish had the affect of sending EURUSD higher.

The strength and scale of the move higher sent EURUSD breaking through the long dated channel top.

However the price action was unable to sustain the move higher and has during this morning’s trading has retraced significantly.

This mornings pull back was needed and to be expected. However there has been a broad market shift into the Euro with positive flows coming from AUD, CAD, GBP, JPY, NZD, SGD, TRY and Gold. This leads me to believe that the move higher has legs to go further.

Especially as the strong multiple year support that was highlighted in prior articles at the 1.0570/1.0600 level has held.

There is of course always an alternative view that yesterday’s price action was just a very oversold market letting off some steam and that selling into rallies should continue to be the strategy of choice. We will have the answer to this question if EURUSD can breech the 1.0550 level.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Much like the Euro, Cable yesterday experienced a stellar rally that sent it on a massive move higher.

With the price action having broken above the prior isolated swing high the 1 hour trend is firmly bullish.

There has been a a correct pullback this morning and this was to be expected.

However as long as GBPUSD can stay above the 1.4635 level the 1 hour trend remains positive.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

The Fed statement sent USDJPY lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.

The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.

This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDJPY higher.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.65 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

What I wrote for USDJPY equally applies to USDCHF.

The Fed statement sent USDCHF lower in what can be describes as a V bottom formation.

The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel top.

This is an areas where the Bears will test the resolve of the Bulls to push USDCHF higher.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.0125 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

The AUDUSD this morning naturally looks like a mirror image of what has happen to USDCHF and USDJPY

The Fed statement sent AUDUSD higher from its triangle consolidation pattern.

The price action however has during the morning pulled back and is rapidly approaching the channel bottom.

This is an areas where the Bulls will test the resolve of the Bears to push AUDUSD lower.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

The news that the Federal Reserve was not raising interest rates any time soon pushed Gold higher.

The price action penetrated the upper level of its down channel.

The subsequent pull back has been limited with Gold experiencing a minor correction.

I will therefore this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of the uptrend and a possible penetration of this mornings high at the 1175.00 level.

Alternatively if Gold cannot hold above the 1166.35 level there is a possibility that we see a pullback down to the 1157.00 congestion area.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1147.50 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Of all the pairs that I follow Oil had the least impressive rally.

Yes the price action did spike above a prior isolated high and yes the price action penetrated the small down channel but move higher was not as impressive as what we saw in the Euro, Pound, Gold and Aussie.

To really be convinced that this move higher has some gas in the tank I would like first to see a successful retest of the yesterday’s high at the US$45.30 level.

A continuation of the move lower and a breach of the 42.00 level would firmly wipe out any hopes of a rally in Oil.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the FOMC meeting over after it delivered a great deal of market volatility the markets today are now focused on day 2 of the European Union summit.

The FOMC meeting and its after affects has changed the 1 hour trend to up.

There is strong support in the 1.0560/1.0600 area due to a multiple year trend line.

Confirmation that the new up trend is intact will require a successful retest of the large down channel.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0550 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With the price action having broken its recent down channel I am this morning monitoring the price action for a continuation of Wednesday evenings up move.

Alternatively a breach of the 1.4635 would wipe out all the gains made and change the 1 hour trend back to down.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4635 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has traded back up to the top of the down channel.

This is an area where USDJPY could potentially find resistance and be a catalyst for a resumption of the recent down trend.

Alternatively a breach of yesterday’s high in the 121.00 area could technically change the trend from down to up.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.00 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has tested and is this morning trading above the top of its down channel.

For the trend to change back to up we require a sustained move above the 0.9970 level.

Alternatively with USDCHF hugging its channel top there is a possibility that the prices action resumes is downward direction.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9970 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD experienced a strong bounce off its 0.7610 support level.

For a continuation of the move to be maintained the price action needs to trade back into its up channel.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7610 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold continues to trade above the down channel top.

A breach of yesterday’s high is required for confirmation that the up trend is intact.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1159.50 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil managed to stay above the top of its down channel and has painted a higher low.

We now require a move above Wednesdays high of US$45.30 to confirm the up trend.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 42.00 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2015







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Has Merkel and Tsipras found enough common ground allow them to bury their differences?

We should find out over the coming days.

However EURUSD has been acting very positively over the past few days.

Is this due to the FOMC’s Janet Yellen putting interest rate hikes on hold or is it due to the end game being in sight for the current Greek crisis.? Probably a bit of both.

However as long as the Euro keeps trading higher why fight the momentum?

EURUSD is now trading in a staircase pattern as the price action paints higher lows and higher highs.

That the price action is above it price channels is also very bullish.

I still want to see a breach of the 1.1035 level as upside bias confirmation.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0760 level


GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Not all that much has happened overnight.

GBPUSD having broken above its down channel experienced a strong pullback.

However support was found at the 1.4700 level and this was a catalyst for a strong bounce.

A move above the 1.5165 level being Wednesday’s high would confirm that the up trend is intact.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4700 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

With USDJPY now experiencing a strong downward correction trying to find the next major support level becomes a priority.

There are minor support levels at the 119.40, 119.10 and 118.70 however there is a weekly swing level at the 118.25 level.

This level could act as a target for the sellers to trade into.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.15 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Having retested the 0.9970 area USDCHF once again reverted its downward momentum.

A move that breaches the 0.9610 level would confirm that the down trend is in good health.

However this level coincides with a prior monthly swing level and an area that could offer considerable support to USDCHF.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9810 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

All I would like to say is that I feel a great deal of satisfaction when the technical tools I use consistently worked.

This is the case when AUDUSD yesterday bounced off the area of its channel bottom.

Take a look at yesterday’s Aussie analysis.

http://academy.acfx.com/market-briefing-london-open-23-03-2015/

With the price action trading higher the next major target is the 0.8000 level which coincides with a prior monthly swing point.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7760 level


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

With the breach the 1182.20 level Gold is now knocking on the door of another prior weekly swing level at the 1191.65.

The move higher has been near vertical which leads me to believe that we might see some down to sideways corrective price action.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.20 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has traded within a large consolidation pattern following the news from the FOMC.

With the longer term trends being so bearish I am monitoring the price action for a potential breakdown from this pattern.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 45.30 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.03.2015





EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD yesterday attempted to test the 1.1035 level but failed to break above this price

Although the price has painted a series of higher lows and higher highs there is a necessity to trade above the 1.1035 level for the up trend to be maintained.

That the price action is above it price channels is also very bullish.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0760 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With UK inflation data once again dropping off the prospects of an interest rise becomes less and less likely.

The up move following last weeks break out has stalled somewhat with the price action consolidating within a tight range.

A breach of the 1.5000 level will confirm the upside bias whereas a break down under the 1.4810 level would put the downside bias back into focus.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4810 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday USDJPY did continue to trade lower but experienced a good bounce off the 119.40 area.

With a possibility of a minor double bottom forming there is the potential for a move back up to the 120.15 resistance level which coincides with the top of the down channel.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.15 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Yesterday USDCHF did breach the 0.9610 monthly support level.

I am this morning monitoring a pull back towards this level for signs a weakness coming back into the trade.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9810 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Over the past three business days AUDUSD has painted a minor topping head an shoulders pattern.

This pattern could be the sign that AUDUSD could experience a substantial downward correction.

Alternatively an inability for the price action to move lower could open up the door to a retest of the 0.7910 level being this weeks high.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.7760 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday the breach the 1182.20 level Gold is now knocking on the door of another prior weekly swing level at the 1191.65.

The move higher has been near vertical which leads me to believe that we might see some down to sideways corrective price action.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1182.20 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil yesterday attempted to break up from its consolidation pattern.

However the price action could not sustain higher prices.

This morning Oil has penetrated the lows of its very narrow down channel.

I am this morning monitoring the price action for a test of support at the 46.75.

However the penetration of the channel bottom could turn out to be a fake break down that acts as a catalyst to push Oil higher.

With the weekly crude report out this afternoon we may see an increase in volatility during the day.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 46.75 level.



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.03.2015




EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning EURUSD is attempting to trade above last weeks high as the price action tests the 1.1000 / 1.1050 level.

A move above these levels would confirm the health of the up trend and establish a broad upward trend channel.

Alternatively a breach of the 1.0900 level would take the price action under the prior isolated low and change the trend from up to down.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.0900 level.




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD having broken above its down channel continues to trade within a tight consolidation range.

I am this morning monitoring the price action with key range / break out levels being 1.4800 / 1.5000.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

This morning we have witness a dramatic drop off in the price of USDJPY as the price rapidly approaches the 118.50 /118.00 levels.

With the trend being so bearish shorting corrective rallies could off possible profitable opportunities.

Alternatively a sustained corrective rally could see USDJPY test the 119.25 level which corresponds to the area of the Channel top.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 121.00 level.



UDSCHF

The intraday technical outlook

The USDCHF is taking USDJPY’s lead and trading lower.

The price action is this morning attempting to test the 0.9550 level which comes in at the area of a prior isolated daily swing low.

A continuation of the move lower takes USDCHF into the area of the 0.9500 big figure.

A failure to sustain lower prices could see USDCHF trade back up to the 0.9600 level which corresponds to a prior monthly swing level.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.9800 level.



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning AUDUSD did breach the isolated low of 0.7850 level.

This move technical changed the trend from up to down.

However the secondary price filter being the channel bottom and the prior monthly swing level of 0.7800 gave support to AUDUSD and has acted as a catalyst for a strong bounce higher.

A breach of the 0.7900 would signify that this down move was a fake break down.

Alternatively a failure to breach the 0.7900 could create downward pressure and force a retest of the 0.7800 level.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7900 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

This mornings move higher has propelled Gold towards the 1221.00 prior weekly swing level.

The move higher has also helped establish a more sustainable albeit still steep up channel.

Following 3 hours of solidly higher prices I am this morning monitoring the price action for the possibility of sideways to down corrective price action.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1187.00 level.


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has traded higher off the back of geo-political and strategic tensions presently affecting the Arabian Peninsula.

The move higher has created a steep up channel.

Following such a strong up move I am this morning monitoring the price action for the possibility of sideways to down corrective price action.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.03.2015





EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

During the afternoon trade EURUSD broke down from upward channel and breached the 1.0900 support level.

There was a brief consolidation during the overnight session however the sell off in EURUSD has now resumed as traders arrive at their desks in London and other major European centers.

From a technical perspective EURUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1.1050 level.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning GBPUSD has opened negatively with the price action testing the 1.4800 prior monthly swing level.

I am this morning monitoring the price action with key range / break out levels being 1.4800 / 1.5000.

From a technical perspective GBPUSD is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 1.4800 level.


USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Following yesterday’s bounce off the 118.50 areas USDJPY has traded higher as it tests the 119.25 resistance level.

A breach of this level could see USDJPY trade up to the top of its down channel.

From a technical perspective USDJPY is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 120.00 level.


USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

The move above the 0.9600 level has technical changed the trend from down to up.

This has been followed by a breach above move above the current down channel.

From a technical perspective USDCHF is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 0.9500 level.


AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

With yesterday morning’s breach the isolated low of 0.7850 level has changed the 1 hour trend for AUDUSD from up to down.

This has been followed by further breaches of the 0.7800 support level and the channel bottom.

The move lower has come off a bounce from the top of a long dated down channel.

From a technical perspective the pair is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 0.7900 level.


GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning Gold has broken the bottom of its up channel and is trading under the 1201.00 support level.

The breach of this level has technically changed the trend from up to down.

From a technical perspective Gold is trading in an intraday 1 hour down trend with the line of control at the 1221.00 level


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

As posted yesterday Oil has traded higher off the back of geo-political and strategic tensions presently affecting the Arabian Peninsula.

The move higher has created a steep up channel.

Following such a strong up move Oil has back down towards it channel bottom,

I am this morning monitoring the price action for the possibility of a bounce from this area.

From a technical perspective Oil is trading in an intraday 1 hour up trend with the line of control at the 47.00 level.



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