Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2018

The euro major pair began with a lead over the dollar for this week due to various negative reasons such as high tensions with the US government tension concerning the White House and the Federal Reserve. Trading has been calmed during the Asian session amid the holiday season with the majority of the market are closed. Yet, bull traders are heedful given various factors such as geopolitical concerns and a sluggish economy that prompts investors to be careful with the thin market trading and European markets closed and internal crisis with the US.

There is no expected macroeconomic data to influence trading even for just a short period of time that has also put a limit to liquidity in the market. The EUR/USD pair is presumed to resume its bullish trading in favor of the greenback across the trading hours. Meanwhile, investors are focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence data and new home sales data scheduled to be released on Thursday, followed by the German CPI data on Friday that may give short-term opportunities.

The pair continues to move higher for the week on a broad-based weaker dollar but may face a strong resistance that may be difficult to surpass because of lack of momentum in the market. Technical trading continues to move with not much changes since the beginning of the week.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2018

After the holidays, the pair has moderate gains while the pair undergoes pressure on Wednesday, removing weekly gains. However, despite no macroeconomic data releases and thin trading sessions, the dollar strengthened amid the rising US Treasury bond yields. It was able to move steadily above the level of 96.50, which supports the greenback and declined lower than 1.14 and further moved as low as 1.34. The risk appetite has restricted the losses after the Wall Street rally and optimistic Asian equity market by the year-end trading session. To some level, this sustains the volatility and recoup from losses and return to the level of 1.38.

Fundamental data are expected from the ECB and two economic data namely the dovish CB Consumer Confidence and new home sales data that is anticipated to give a rising forecast for the month of November. Nonetheless, no matter how the data came out, the pair is likely to move range-bound amid the thin market for holidays which may limit any major upward movement. Next week’s forecast will probably be the same during the holidays for this week.

On a technical aspect, the price continues to have a bearish pressure in the present and future trading. Short-Term support was found close to the 200-SMA and base of the weekly range with some sort of bearishness to 20-SMA. However, below the midlines lacking any strength gives a neutral stance with uncertain direction.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2019

The euro major pair was successful to have a bullish breakout in a wider price range for the past three months. It was driven mainly by a dovish Fed meeting after an update in China-US trade deal which was being followed by almost everyone. During the American session, the long-term resistance was broken at 1.14985 giving a good momentum after a bullish breakout as the price ranges at 1.15 followed by consolidation at Asian hours. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes pushed the price for a breakout which then underwent a bearish bias before the release of the Fed minutes given the dovish rhetorics from various FOMC members.

Some of the committee members are supports the rate hike amid the continuous slowdown since December throughout the world market, as well as, the US economy. Moreover, this shows that the majority of the members monitors the market carefully, considering the sluggish pace of rate increase along with the investor’s expectations to pause the rate hike plans this year. On a long-term perspective, this engages major fund flow in the market as a safe-haven currency with a risk of a recession for short-term due to Fed plans of multiple rate hikes. This greatly impacted the USD bulls and foster risk appetite in the market.

Meanwhile, investors attention are now on the ECB’s most recent minutes of the meeting as they look forward to the economic slowdown in the European market or hints on the possibility of an early rate hike by the central bank in 2019. This could further strengthen the euro bulls to break higher than the 1.16 mark.

As for the fundamental reports, the initial jobless claims, new home sales data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are anticipated today from the US market that would likely bring short-term profit opportunities for retail traders.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 15, 2019

The euro was able to close yesterday with optimism despite risk-off trading that is predominant in the market after a disappointing release from Chinese import and export data. Today, we can expect the pair trading range-bound with a bit of a positive bias but not a major increase as traders are still careful with the upcoming Brexit approval vote in the UK House of Commons. The output is anticipated to have a strong impact on short-term price movement between the British pound and the euro in the broad market. Although, the general forecast in the market is expecting a rejection in the vote today unless it goes against public anticipated outcome. If so, the euro will struggle with any big changes in the price movement.

After the parliament vote on Brexit but not optimistic to Theresa May limit volatility in the market to a certain degree. The market already positioned and expected the rejection of Brexit will win over May’s, which the headlines will give fundamental support to euro. The US greenback is leasing against broad-based risky sell-off yesterday. However, the US dollar in calm given the partial shutdown of the US government added to the dovish bias of the Fed's policy rate hike that adds pressure to the greenback on the broad market.

On the headlines, three data are expected including French CPI & HICP data, French GDP data & Euro area trade balance data. An increase in French GDP is anticipated to rise in monthly readings while others remain the same. From the US, data on Trade balance and PPI are anticipated to be released with a dovish bias compared to the previous numbers. Traders are anticipated to look for short-term opportunities given the expected speech of ECB Draghi in today’s US session and FOMC member Robert Kaplan, which will likely bring high volatility in the market.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 21, 2019

The euro major pair struggles amid the geopolitical and economic problems that resulted in calm price action. It broke the significant support level of 1.1364 on Friday. It drops as low as 1.1353 given the dovish pressure from the European market in euro for the week, despite the steady risk appetite. With euro affected by the political concerns, these events continue to bring in a bearish influence on Monday session that is anticipated to limit the upward potential in the European market. A number of European news, including Brexit deal negotiation, “Anti-EU Axis” of Italy, French yellow vest protest, have continuously affected the economic activity. At the same time, this hurts the investors’ risk appetite in the background of China-US trade war also puts a ceiling to the bullish possibilities of the pair.

The trade war between China and the US remains to be the main factor, influencing the long-term high-risk assets in the global market, as well as other news that gives rise to the higher risk in worsening the trade war while bearing in mind the issue on Intellectual property infringement to influence the long-term trend and suggests a higher possibility of a downward movement of short-term trades. On another hand, China’s GDP implies growth despite trade war that has slowed down the Chinese economy in less than 30 years, which in turn keeps steady the risk appetite in Asian markets. This boosted the rebound of the pair last week following a post minor consolidation at the beginning of the Asian market. However, there is not enough headlines to support the bulls, hence, limited its uptrend at 1.137 prior to the European hours.

On the economic calendar releases, it seems to be subdued for both currencies but expecting for the German PPI data that is presumed to drop compared to the previous reading of the European economic climate and largely impact the near-term trading of the common currency. Amid the careful sentiment of the global market with the prevalent risk appetite and lack of fundamental data for the euro, we can assume for the resumption of a bearish price movement of the pair in the future.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2019

The euro closed on a neutral stance yesterday after a sudden two-way price action due to recent headlines. While there is a high demand for safe-haven assets reaching a 16-day low in the early trading session, the US equities dropped on conflict with the China-US trade war that resulted for the US dollar to decline in the broad market, supporting the recovery of euro from intraday lows. On the other hand, the US dollar sustained its bullish momentum with rising concerns with a trade war, which sets risk off trading and yields range-bound trading during Asian hours and closed today’s post on a neutral state. Moreover, the US dollar is influenced to have a dovish sentiment in the broad market on rate hike plans for the year and partial government shutdown.

News implying worsening of the Sino-US will continue to negatively affect global growth, making investors cautious on the negotiation, despite the clear talks during the meeting earlier this month that weren’t exactly published yet and additionally, the US Treasury department commented saying that issues were unsettled.

Given that there are no major releases scheduled both from the US and Europe, the EUR/USD pair is assumed to trade range-bound, higher than the critical support level. News momentum and risk-off trading activity dominated trading on Tuesday. Macro data from the Atlantic area didn’t have any major impact on the price movement. Meanwhile, investors are focused on the ECB and the outcome of the post-MPC conference tomorrow. If ECB members comments aligned with the statement from ECB president Mario Draghi will result in a sharp decline. While investors wait for the MPC update, they are likely to hold back from placing any major bets that also supports the tendency of range-bound trading for today’s trading session.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2019

The euro major is trading within the range close to last night high during the Asian market hours. The profit gain gave a bullish trend previously after the statement from MPC, who decided to keep the interest rates as anticipated. Yet, the increase plans for the year has changed and delayed the increase which prompted investors to wait and monitor traders as a strategy. However, this opens the possibility for the Fed to contract rather than increase the interest rates relative to the economic situation. Consequently, the dollar turned into a dovish sentiment in the broad market. The dollar has had another bullish tone after the Fed update of Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his post-FOMC conference speech saying that the balance sheet reduction that will move along the changes in future economic conditions, according to a news report from WSJ at the beginning of the week.

Yet, trades will likely end earlier amid the pressure due to Powell giving impact on trade wars and chances of the government shutdown in US economy and give a dovish tone. Moreover, the difference in spread between Germany and 10-T bonds dropped in Asian hours amid the dovish sentiment and increasing dollar in the broad market. This supports the euro bulls to gain a stronger stance higher than the 1.15 level. Currently, traders wait for the outcome of the US-China trade war and look for favorable signals for the common currency in the broad market.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 1, 2019

The euro major pair is consolidating close to the previous low during trading session amid high-risk appetite in the broad market which limited the decline to 1.14, which has been steady support across the week. News on trade deal being extended despite optimism on progress and major concerns taking straight on, in turn, these supported the dollar bulls. Another news is the possibility for two leaders of US and China are likely to meet this month with positive expectation on the trade deal, however, tariff imposition is also to be discussed if a deal wasn’t successful by March 1st.

Consequently, this shook the market as the trade talk between the EU and the US is scheduled next month to gain agreement from EU should the talk failed. The possibility of the US imposing tariffs on EU is giving a dovish tone for the common currency in the broad market. However, the EUR/USD is likely to decline in the coming month amid the dovish outlook for short and medium-term and lack of fundamental support to maintain the recent high of the euro.

The euro pair is presumed to resume its consolidation ahead of the Eurozone preliminary CPI data and German manufacturing PMI data. However, a negative result on the macro-European data would drive further decline of the pair. A positive outcome would shift the lead to the dollar bulls and opens the chance for a rally and set for consolidation in the intermediate support in the first week of February.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 4, 2019

The euro major pair movement was driven by fundamental data, bringing a mixed price reaction. After a very active month, February began with optimism on trading the EUR/USD pair. Yet, it was not able to surpass the high levels with not so good bounce on price action. Moreover, the positive data that restricted the price movement due to the mixed reaction as mentioned. However, bulls doesn’t have enough strength to sustain the present positive flow of the trend amid the dovish sentiment this month, restricting gains slightly lower than 1.15. Moreover, both the data of US NFP data and ISM manufacturing data supported the US dollar lead the market, removing the gains acquired earlier.

As the trading session opened this week, the US dollar had taken the upper hand in the broad market and consolidated close to the intraday lows. Nevertheless, the pair is anticipated to trade within the range since both currencies lack enough momentum to succeed with a breakout. Thinking about the factors such as the headlines and events positioned the bears and bulls at same stance. In the meantime, the price movement in Asian markets are closed for today that impacted the volatility and price movement in the market. There is no scheduled major economic news from the eurozone while in the US, there is the release of data on Factory orders but will probably not have a big impact on the trading movement.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2019

The euro major pair is moving in a steady decline following a bearish breakthrough during the US session. Yesterday, it closed on optimistically for the fifth straight session after it struggled in the morning when Donald Trump gave his speech, giving a chance for investors to divert from risks. At the same time, with a pessimistic fundamental data surrounding the euro and positive macro data from the US supported the dollar for a bearish breakout. Consequently, the pair had a sharp decline prior to consolidation around the middle of 1.13 during the early Asian hours. Fed may have a dovish sentiment on its rate hike but the US dollar sustained its positive position in the market as investors and analysts assume the Fed to proceed with the rate hike this year.

Moreover, a good fundamental data surrounding the US Treasury bond yields support the dollar bulls since the beginning of this week’s trading and hovered higher than 1.362, increasing by 0.06% on the day. With the Asian session traders returning the market after the holidays, the trading volume, as well as volatility are expected to increase significantly. Furthermore, the investors are hoping for good macro data and open opportunities for short-term profit.

In the US, the Initial Jobless Claims data is anticipated while in the EU, several reports are to be released including the EU Economic forecast, German Industrial Production, and trade balance data, and ECB Economic Bulletin. Positive results will spur the euro and likely to sustain its consolidative rate but a negative outcome will further bring the price down towards 1.12.

On the technical aspect, there will be less resistance below as it moves smoothly below the 20-, 50- and 100-MA in daily and hourly intraday charts. As for the indicators, both RSI and stochastic signal lines are directed towards the oversold area in the hourly chart while it is still below the oversold area in the 4-hour and daily charts, which means that there is a high chance for the decline of the pair to continue for the day.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2019

After four succeeding bearish trading, the euro major pair finally gained some momentum towards the end of the week. However, the euro bulls have limited the downward movement and close optimistically for the week. The week began with the US dollar taking the lead amid the thin trading during the holidays affecting market volatility, volume and risk appetite in the majority of the Asian session. Furthermore, below expectations released macro data in the euro zone escalated concerns in the market as investors worry on the tendency of a slowdown in the euro area economic activity amid the Brexit negotiations. In turn, these factors give a bearish sentiment to the common currency. At the same time, this supports the dollar’s attempt for a bearish breakout.

With its decline for a week, the release of macro data from the US hinders the dollar bulls to continue with its further decline. There is no enough momentum for recovery for the dollar bulls given the pessimistic unemployment data while the bulls are in a calm state in the broad market. Yet, the euro cannot take advantage of the upward momentum amid the lack of major economic data to support a price rally. Hence, this results in range-bound trading after intraday lows close to the middle of 1.35, which will likely persist throughout the day since there is minimal chance for a breakout with no fundamental data to support this.

Meanwhile, minor reports are anticipated to come out from the EU and the United States. The German trade balance data and preliminary French Q4 NFP data are anticipated to come out from eurozone while the WASDE report and U.S. Baker Hughes oil rig count data are scheduled to be released from the US.

On a technical aspect, it seems that it lacks the strength to determine the direction as it stays close to recent lows.

 

[Charot FXMart]

The current Money Fall contest has already started on February 18, 2019 and will end on February 22, 2019.

You can register for the next competition which will take place from February 25, 2019 to March 1, 2019 (Terminal time). .

Note:

Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: February 22, 2019

The dollar against the Japanese yen is trading slightly higher on Friday amid a relatively low volume. For the sixth trading day, volatility stays below the average after below expectations outcome of the US economic data. Various data including Durable Goods, Core Durable Goods, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales are less than expected outcome which settles the Fed concerns over this economic struggle ahead.

Looking at the early price action, the USD/JPY pair will probably trade for short-term at 110.693. If the price stays above 110.693, it will signify the presence of buyers. The initial target of the week’s high at 110.950. Breaking this level would induce an upward growth to change that closing top price reversal of 111.130.

On the other hand, if the price stays below the level of 110.693, it will indicate the presence of sellers. The primary target will be the main Fibonacci level of 110.452. Crossing to the weak side would mean a stronger drive for momentum with the lower limit at 110.255 as the next goal.

 

[Charot FXMart]

The current Money Fall contest has already started on February 25, 2019 and will end on March 1, 2019.


You can register for the next competition which will take place from March 4, 2019 to March 8, 2019 (Terminal time). .


Note:


Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 11, 2019

The euro is trading higher on Monday for a while prior to the opening of the US session, driven by the reaction of the market to oversold induced by a steep decline last week. The dovish signals from the ECB last week affect the long-term price movement, hence, we can conclude that the rally will not last for a long time.

It is likely that we are also looking for price parity after the results of a mixed US employment has come out. This implies that the US economy is presently weakening. However, after the recent stimulus program of the ECB, it may mean that the eurozone is on the weaker side of the two nations.

We can expect for low volatility after the release of the US sales report at 12.30 GMT especially if this turns out less than the forecast. The core retail sales report is anticipated to increase by 0.4% while retail sales are likely to come out flat.

According to the daily chart, the price trend is moving downward and if it reaches the level of 1.1176, the downtrend will likely continue. The initial target is the Gann angle at 1.1560 in consideration of the price action at the beginning with upward momentum. Overcoming this angle would mean the short-partaking is getting stronger and could lead to a rally towards the 50% level of 1.1298.

The short-range is presumed to be at 1.1420 and 1.1176 with the retracement zoner at 1.1298 and 1.1327 as the initial upward target. Meanwhile, sellers are likely to test the area given that the main trend is downward. However, if the current intraday fails to exceed today's’ intraday high of 1.1247, then we can assume the possibility of a short-term pullback to a short-term pivot of 1.1213.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 13, 2019

Yesterday’s trading of the EUR/USD pair began in a subdued manner for this week. Meanwhile the price moved upward during the Asian and early European session which limited the gains of investors prior to the UK parliament meeting and limits having any major bets. Even after the release of the a mix macro data from the European calendar, the impact was not that prominent on the price movement but a strong resistance was encountered close to the level of 1.127, which then rallied and traded range-bound. This was supported by the mixed macro data which then weakened the greenback. Soon after, the us dollar gained momentum and strengthened in the late European hours after the release of optimistic US macro data.

The European calendar remains calm from the release of non-farm payroll in France in the fourth quarter while in US session, there is the release of the core CPI update and speech from FOMC member Brainard prior of UK parliament’s vote on Brexit deal. Both of the French and US macro data are unlikely to have a strong impact on the price movement with a neutral forecast or unchanged data. On a technical aspect, a breakout would determine the price direction which will likely be the main reason in short- and long-term outlook. Moreover, with the May deal and widening spread between German and American 10-year bonds will probably favor the US dollar.

 

[Obasi FXMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2019

The euro major pair moved in a two-way price movement driven by investor sentiment because of headlines. There is high-risk appetite throughout the day which supported the euro to move in a positive price action early in the day. However, news of a delay in meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to sign a trade deal later this month to April which influenced the investor sentiment to be cautious in the late European market hours. In turn, the EUR/USD pair dropped slightly but attention is still focused on the UK parliament vote to extend the article 50 deadline and price in the majority of global traders.

Investors wait for the release of the macro data to get some hints on the trading session which is about to close for the week. On the fundamental reports, data on Italian CPI & HICP and Euro area CPI data from the EU calendar are expected while report on Industrial production data, JOLTs Job Openings, Michigan Consumer sentiment, and Michigan Consumer expectation from the US are scheduled to be published.

On the technical aspect, there is less resistance on the upper side of the channel if Brexit continued in front of the UK parliament and high-risk appetite in the broad market.

 

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 25, 2019

This week starts with a fresh new high for the euro major pair. However, all of the gains were erased after the release of a weakened European PMI, particularly from the German and Eurozone. The results were not expected by investors. Moreover, will the presence of uncertainty, there was an increase in selling bias for the currency, which resulted to a downward rally which was mainly due to the weakened manufacturing added to the concerns on US-China trade war in the background of Brexit negotiation that affects the overall imports and exports of the nation. Uncertainty will probably resume during the week.

With the big drop of the EUR/USD pair on Thursday, the price could not break the resistance level of 1.1318. This was followed by a slight reversal on Monday morning after its plunge to recover the previous losses and reached 1.131.

Fundamental data from the US particularly the Chicago Fed activity index and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity are anticipated in the afternoon. Meanwhile, reports from German will be published by the CESifo group. This gives signals on the present conditions and business assumptions in Germany. Forecasts are positive for these expected data.

 

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 26, 2019

The euro major pair began the week with optimism after a sharp drop on Friday. They managed to have positive results across the day and close with a slight upward movement at the end of the day. Events on both the EU and the US bond market had a big impact on the price activity. Meanwhile, the bond market induced a risk-averse reaction to the European and American markets. Yet, the positive macro data from Europe as well as a slight rebound in American bond that lessens the aversion of traders to risk in yesterday’s price movement.

The German macro data favored the euro to have gains. During the US session, it was apparent that there is a healthy risk appetite on trading activity. Thus, the euro closed on an optimistic note in the broad global market yesterday. Yet, the bond market still gives hints for a US recession, which also restricted the gains for euro yesterday.

During the Asian hours, the pair traded range-bound prior to the update of the EU macro data, which will confirm the positive signals. At the same time, the pair has a bearish pressure due to Brexit negotiation. In the meantime, traders are heedful and careful in placing major trades, although the positive fundamental macro data can drive momentum and short-term opportunities for direction.

Today, data on Building Permits, Housing starts, and CB consumer confidence are anticipated from the US and the release of GFK German Consumer Climate data are scheduled from the eurozone.

 

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2019

The euro major pair had a slight correction at the beginning of the Thursday session after the rise in the US dollar index. It rose with a dovish sentiment from the major world banks.

Yesterday, the ECB President Mario Draghi gave a signal of a possibility of a decline in the global economy. The central bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate but hinted at the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term before or around the month of November. The price remained calm at the level of 1.1387 after the news saying that Theresa May will resign if the deal on Brexit is rejected twice.

Despite the global economy being sensitive, the EUR/USD pair may still have a bright outlook and remain optimistic on closing amid the major events today. Data on business climate for March and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) index for March from the eurozone are anticipated to be released from Europe while the GDP for the fourth fiscal year is scheduled to be released from the US. This data is important as it would have an impact on major currency pairs including the euro.

The Simple Moving Average was found above the pair’s trading level, which gives a bearish tone for the day. It was able to reach the resistance level of 1.1267 in the past few days and there is a chance to achieve this area again today. However, it seems that there is no momentum to push the pair considering the MACD indicator.