Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 26, 2016

The decreasing doubts regarding the result of the referendum cause the pound to come nearly to its high for the week. The volume of Brexit opponents is 55% against 42% who want to exit the EU, according to the recent poll.

The first support occurs at 1.4670 and at 1.4560 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4760 and at 1.4880 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen ascends in movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross". This activity will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 27, 2016

In the midst of positive economic forecasts, the dollar reinforced its positions. As stated by the Fed, the US regulator may heightened the rates at its conference this coming June. Meanwhile, in the economic news, the United States presented the Initial Jobless Claims wherein the volume appeared at 268,000 against the report of 275,000.

The euro was bolstered by the agreement happened between the Eurozone and the Greece. The latter attained an agreement with its creditors and shall take a new tranche of loans in the amount of 10 billion euro.

It has been inveterated that the recoupment of the British economy became sluggish by the second Gross Domestic Product estimate for the first quarter in the UK. The economy showed a growth by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The economy of Britain encountered a difficulty with a devitalized growth in emerging markets particularly in China. The approaching referendum also decelerated the growth.

The dollar stick around in a range waiting for the statement of Janet Yellen. The market is anticipating hints from the regulator about the probable rate hike in June. The yen raised and bereaved the dollar from its recent gains. The investors involuntarily close positions before there are any probable risk that may occur.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 27, 2016

The yen deprived from growing on Thursday. But as the corporate services price index grew, it heightened precociously. And as presumed, the Corporate Service Price index grew by 0,2% y/y. The USA presented the Durable Goods Orders wherein the data showed 0,4% against the expected 0,3% and Initial Jobless Claims which showed 268,000 against the report 275,000.

The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 30, 2016

AUD/USD is taking a beating after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that a rate hike is “appropriate in the next coming months,” fueling speculations of a rate hike in June’s monetary policy meeting.

Bears are surrounding the Australian dollar as high it loses steam, trading at 0.7175 from last week’s 0.72 level. The MACD indicator is in neutral position.

The first support occurs at 0.7065 and 0.6827, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7243 and 0.7331 subsequently.

The pair is in for a volatile ride this week with a deluge of data coming from both sides. Australia’s Company Gross Operating Profits slowed down again to -4.7 percent in the first quarter after sliding by 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This indicates weakening profits of private firms.

New home sales in April declined by 4.7 percent from the previous reading’s 8.9 percent increase. The country’s current account and number of building approvals will follow today, while trade balance, retail data, and GDP will be released on Tuesday.

On the greenback’s side, consumer confidence and Core CPE Price Index will start the week of significant volatility, trailing to manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls in the later part of the week. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to deliver speeches.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 31, 2016

Upbeat data from Eurozone’s two biggest economies helped cushion the blow of a firming USD against the Euro as the bloc currency records session highs, although the pair is still underperforming.

Preliminary CPI of Germany, the EU’s largest economy, was in line with the forecast 0.3 percent growth from the previous reading’s decline of 0.4 percent. France, the second largest, recorded a higher-than-expected 0.6 percent GDP for the first three months of the year, beating the 0.5 percent expectations.

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment report also showed that consumers have a positive outlook on the economy. It printed 104.7 points in May, up from 104.0 last month.

However, these are not enough to offset the bulls surrounding the USD after the Fed Chairwoman herself said that a rate hike is appropriate given the US’ economic conditions.

The pair is now trading at 1.1149, peaking at 1.1156 in early European session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1215 and 1.1357 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative position. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016

This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged.

The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 1, 2016

The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 6, 2016

The poor data of Non-farm Payrolls could be a factor of the Fed rate hike delay. The EUR/USD pair bounced up last Friday. It surpassed the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300 and reached the level of 1.3730. This cause the pair to look bullish.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.1370 while the support stands at 1.1300.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location, which signifies growth and is bullish. The RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 7, 2016

The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.

The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.

Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.

A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.

The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: June 9, 2016

The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.

“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.

Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.

The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 13, 2016

The Euro is holding onto 1.12 cents against the USD, effectively avoiding a bearish trend but keeping the risks on the upside. Pro-Brexit campaigns are gaining, questioning the stability of the European Union.

It’s a quiet day for the EUR/USD, but Tuesday will bring in trade data from Spain and Italy followed by France on Wednesday. The region’s trade balance is on the radar on Thursday, as well as inflation.

The USD is posting gains against its major peers due to bullish initial jobless claims late last week, reversing losses from dismal nonfarm payrolls in the beginning of the month. This week’s highlight is Fed’s interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 0.5 percent, although some investment firms are forecasting a rate cut.

The pair is trading within a 50-pip range and is currently at 1.1261. The price is climbing.

The first support is at 1.1216 and 1.1179 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1299 and 1.1327 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 14, 2016

Economic data coming this week are overshadowed by a gaining Brexit campaign. Research firm ICM’s latest survey showed the Team ‘Leave’ six points ahead, shaking the strength of the GBP which has been experiencing volatility in recent months.

GBP/USD took a tumble in early session but has been playing teeter totter with each other. USD is on a volatile ride as well with the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Thursday will see the Bank of England announce its interest rate decision that may help push the sterling to bullish territory.

The pair is trading at a wide range between 1.3839 and 1.5931 on the daily charts.

Traders are closely watching public opinion on the Brexit. Little impact is expected from the CPI and PPI today as well as from the unemployment rate on Wednesday.

The first support is at 1.3839 and 1.3724. The first resistance is at 1.4232 and 1.4300. The MACD indicator is in negative position. The spot exchange is 1.4130 and continues to slide.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 15, 2016

A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.

TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows.

UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.

As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.

The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.

Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.

We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 21, 2016

The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.

Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.

Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.

The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016

EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.

Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.

On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.

The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.

EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 23, 2016

GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.

According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.

In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.

Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.

The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016

Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.

Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal. The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 4, 2016

The Japanese government believed that the cause of the household spending enfeeblement in May was the continuous breakdown of the consumer prices. This event leads to a further compression to the Bank of Japan which is discontented with the present sinewy of the Japanese yen.

The instrument reduced from a local high. The pair is directed to revert under 102.50. The resistance occurs at 103.50 while the support resides at 102.50.

We should notice that the expansion of the MACD indicator decelerated. It has stayed in the negative location which signifies a sell signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral location and doesn't provide any signals. The USD/JPY pair is under the Moving Averages (50,100 and 200) which goes on a descending movement. The pair tested the 50-day movement and slip downwards. The 50-day movement is the nearest resistance for the pair.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016

After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.

A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: July 12, 2016

The exchange rate of British pound to Euro (EUR/GBP) plunged a significant dip of 9 points just as euro has a little price action and the value of British pound emerges from default rate. At the moment, the pair seems to be holding the same level at 0.8514. Due to the extreme support of the European Central Bank monetary policy, it helped maintain the stability of prices and maintained the inflation rate close to medium term position. When inflation rate rises dramatically, there is a need to promote monetary easing in order to minimize financial costs and increase the amount of money flow in the market.

The investment sector is beset with difficulty, making it complicated to invest a new capital. To this extent the bank management should stabilize the global economy in order to aid bankruptcy. Every financial institution should write off undesirable credits or loans so as to recover losses and produce new income. Since the outset of the stock market storm in U.K. , the British pound ride out a way through it and made a 31-year low against dollar.

British sterling underscores a big fall of 13% versus dollar and 10% against euro. According to analysts, this will build up U.K exports because anything that is price-marked in sterling would be much cheaper for the foreign buyers. But the effect of these major lost in sterling offered mixed trade signals whether or not it would influence the external trade transactions.