Daily market analysis by NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- According to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite Index has reached its highest since July 2020. The similar indicator (30-day moving average) between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historical low, the one between the first cryptocurrency and the dollar - to a minimum since March 2020.
Experts have explained such dynamics by tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. An increase in interest rates leads to a strengthening dollar and a fall in high-tech stocks. Accordingly, the growth in the price relationship between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reflects that digital gold belongs to the category of risky assets.
Physical gold is currently acting as a hedge against inflation, while bitcoin ETPs are recording an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC will be updated by the end of the month. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index.

- The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Agency (CISA), the FBI and the US Treasury have issued a joint warning regarding North Korean hackers. The authorities have said they are seeing attacks targeting the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors, including exchanges, DeFi protocols, venture capital funds, individual large crypto asset holders and NFTs.
According to a report by Chainalysis, North Korean hackers carried out at least seven cyberattacks on cryptocurrency platforms last year, stealing about $400 million worth of digital assets.

- Analyst software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up bitcoin reserves. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
MicroStrategy is the first public company to invest part of its own capital in digital gold. According to the entrepreneur, this decision increased the value of the company for customers and shareholders. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, the software provider holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. MacroStrategy made its last $190.5 million purchase in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

- The price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. This forecast was given by Antoni Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, in an interview with CNBC. At the same time, he noted that he was “concerned” about the short-term prospects for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.
Trenchev stated in January 2020 that the cryptocurrency would “easily reach” $50,000 by the end of the year. He recalled that everyone laughed at him then. However, the forecast came true, albeit with some delay: the price of digital gold reached the designated mark in February 2021.

- Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten believes that BTC could set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”
According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.

- A well-known analyst aka PlanB has identified two catalysts that could cause the next bitcoin rally. “It is definitely difficult to say what will help move to the qualitatively next level of implementation. But if we draw logical conclusions, then the second or the third El Salvador can really change the situation. If little El Salvador were not alone in introducing bitcoin in Latin America, and Mexico, Brazil or Argentina joined it, then the situation would be different, and it would be much more difficult for the IMF to put pressure on countries.”
The second catalyst is the everyday adoption of cryptocurrencies by ordinary people, especially if the process is supported by institutional market participants.

- “The NFT bubble is starting to burst,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of the "Black Swan", who predicted the approach of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Speaking to Fortune, Taleb cited the recent NFT (non-fungible token) sale of Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey as an example. His first online tweet was sold as an NFT last year for nearly $3 million. Today, it costs only a few thousand, more precisely, a little over $18,000.
Taleb's theory of "black swans" is associated with the appearance of ultra-rare events (like a black swan in nature), for which the market is not ready. In 2007, such an event was a sharp drop in house prices, and in 2022, the end of the era of low interest rates and “easy” money that had formed the basis of monetary policy during the pandemic.

- According to a new survey by Engine Insights, children aged 13 to 17 will spend their money differently than their parents. If they had money to invest, their first choice would be stocks (39%) followed by cryptocurrencies (29%) and real estate (29%).
At the same time, more than half of teenagers (51%) admitted that they do not understand the cryptocurrency industry as well as they would like to. The main source of information for 51% of respondents is online video. This is followed by relatives (32%) and websites of investment companies (32%). Parents are only in fourth place: they act as a source of information for 30% of adolescents. However, the school's position is even worse: only 21% of teenagers have learned about investments from their teachers.

- Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and stated that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one. A lot depends on the geopolitical situation in the world currently, so it is very difficult to give accurate price forecasts.
Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin could drop to a record low below $30,000 amid geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe before starting to rise again.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin is approaching “the point of choosing the direction of the trend.” Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”
According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, bitcoin needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which at the time of writing is at about $47,500. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

- According to Coincub specialists, Germany has displaced Singapore from the position of the most crypto-friendly country. Authors of the report for the Q1 2022 have ranked 46 countries based on a range of factors, including new categories such as the number of initial coin offerings (ICOs) in each country, the prevalence of fraud and the availability of cryptocurrency education courses, etc. Germany's rise in the rankings comes after crypto exchange KuCoin released a report showing that 16% of the country's population aged 18 to 60 own or have traded crypto in the past six months. 41% of these investors intend to increase their investments in the crypto industry in the next six months. Interestingly, Germany was only in fourth place on the Coincub list last year.

- Strike payment service CEO Jack Mallers believes that payment services must constantly improve, and bitcoin does it best. In his opinion, the use of bitcoins as a payment network "is superior to the systems of traditional payment services and banks." In addition, the head of Strike compared the first cryptocurrency with the Internet, saying that they provide freedom: anyone can use both. Jack Mallers also advises cryptocurrency holders not to spend bitcoin as the asset is meant to be a long-term investment.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 25 - 29, 2022​

EUR/USD: Words Drive Trends

The main drivers of the past week were statements by important ECB and FRS officials. However, the beginning of the five-day period was relatively calm: the Easter weekend had its effect. Unlike the United States, Europe rested not only on Friday April 15, but also on Monday 18. The dollar was slightly supported on Monday by the comments from the representatives of the American regulator. According to Rafael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the base interest rate may be about 1.75% by the end of 2022, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans believes that it will reach 2.25-2.50%. And the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, announced a possible rise in the key rate by 0.75% immediately at the May meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee).

The situation changed dramatically on Tuesday: the EUR/USD pair reversed and, having soared by 175 points, reached the height of 1.0935 on Thursday, April 21. It was not the dollar but the euro that was supported this time by hawkish comments from the members of the European Central Bank Governing Council. Thus, the head of the Central Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, said on Wednesday that an increase in the ECB rate is possible as early as July. His colleague, the head of the National Bank of Belgium, Pierre Wunsch, gave an interview to Bloomberg the next day, in which he noted that interest rates could become positive this year. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos confirmed this possibility, according to him the quantitative easing (QE) program may be completed in July, after which the path to raising rates will be open.

An additional impetus to the pair was given by the improvement in risk sentiment and the decline in the yield of American Treasuries. This sent the DXY dollar index down 1% after hitting a two-year high on Tuesday.

The situation changed for the third time on Thursday afternoon. The dollar went on a new offensive, assisted by a rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose to 2.974%, the highest level since December 2018. This happened thanks to Jerome Powell. Speaking at a meeting within the framework of the International Monetary Fund spring session, the head of the Fed confirmed the high probability of raising the interest rate by 0.5% at the next FOMC meeting on May 3-4. Such a move is under consideration, Powell said, as the U.S. job market is already "overheated." He did not rule out either that the rate could be increased by another 0.5% in June.

As for the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, speaking at the same IMF event, she refused to comment on the likelihood of an increase in the euro rate in July. “This will depend on the economic performance,” Ms. Lagarde said vaguely, after which the EUR/USD pair flew down.

The head of the ECB decided to slightly tighten her position on the last day of the working session, April 22. Ыhe did not deny at this point that the European Central Bank's purchase program could end at the beginning of Q3 and added that interest rates could rise as early as 2022. Her words sounded more hawkish compared to Thursday's, but that didn't help the euro. The pair found its bottom only at 1.0770, after which there was a slight correction to the north and a finish at 1.0800.

The euro was slightly supported by the results of the televised debate between French President Emmanuel Macron and opposition leader Marine Le Pen. As the poll data showed, 56% of respondents considered that the incumbent president was more convincing in the debate than his rival.

The second round of the presidential elections in France will be held on Sunday 24 April. Emmanuel Macron won 27.84% of the vote in the first round. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally Party, received 23.15%. Recall that she belongs to the Eurosceptics, and had called for almost the exit of the country from the Eurozone back in 2017. And if this lady comes to power, the EUR/USD pair, according to a number of analysts, may fall to the level of 1.0500, or even lower.

At the time of writing the review, the results of the election are still unknown, so the majority of analysts (50%) did not make any forecasts. 35% believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen. The opposite opinion is shared by only 15%. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 15% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold. The nearest support is located at the level of 1.0770. The next EUR/USD bear target will be the April 14 low at 1.0757. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. Immediate resistance zone is 1.0830-1.0860, followed by 1.0900, the April 21 high of 1.0935 and 1.1000.

As for the release of macro data, the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known on Tuesday, April 26. Data on GDP and the state of consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone will be received on Thursday, April 28 and Friday, April 29. In addition, preliminary annual data on US GDP will be released on Thursday.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.3000 Is Lost. Will there be a counterattack?

We assumed in the previous review that we are in for the continuation of the battle of bulls and bears, and the front line will pass in the zone of 1.3000. Recall that 1.3000 is a key support/resistance level as it is not only the March 15 low, but also the 2021-2022 low.

And now we must say that the bulls have lost this battle. Having raised the GBP/USD pair to the height of 1.3090, they finally weakened, and it flew down. The local bottom was fixed at 1.2822 on Friday, and the final chord sounded a little higher, in the zone of 1.2830.

The reasons for this collapse of the pound lie on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. On the one hand, this is the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve and the growth of US Treasury yields. On the other hand, there are cautious comments from the Bank of England (BoE) and weak macro statistics from the UK.

Commenting on the state of the economy on Thursday, the head of the British regulator, Andrew Bailey, said that the inflationary shock in the United Kingdom has more in common with the Eurozone than with the US. "We shouldn't be complacent about inflation expectations," Bailey added, reiterating that they were dealing with "a very tight line between fighting inflation and the impact of a shock on real incomes."

The day after the speech of the head of the Bank of England, the UK Office for National Statistics dealt another blow to the pound. It reported that retail sales fell 1.4% in March. This indicator followed the February decline of 0.5% and turned out to be much worse than the forecast, according to which the fall should have been only 0.3%.

Such a massive failure will most likely send investors into a shock and it will take time to restore their appetite for British currency purchases. The bears will try to build on their success and push the GBP/USD pair further down. 65% of analysts vote for this development, the remaining 35% expect the pair to correct to the north.

There is a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% both among trend indicators and oscillators. True, as for the latter, a third is in the oversold zone. The immediate goal of the bears is to overcome the support of 1.2800, update the October 2020 lows around 1.2760 and open their way to the September 2020 lows in the zone 1.2685-1.2700. More distant targets for the pair's decline are located at the levels of 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2085 and 1.2000. As for the bears, they will try to regain the initiative and fight again for 1.3000. However, they will need to overcome the resistances of 1.2860 and 1.2915 on this way. In case of a successful assault on 1.3000, resistance levels 1.3100, 1.3150 and the zone 1.3190-1.3215 will follow.

There are no significant data releases on the UK economy for the coming week. The only thing that can be noted is the release of data on the housing market of this country on Friday, April 29.

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[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Will the Bank of Japan Stand Its Ground?

The Japanese currency is hitting one anti-record after another, and the expectation that the past week would bring another one proved to be absolutely correct. The USD/JPY pair recorded another high at 129.39 on Wednesday, April 20. The last time it climbed this high was in May 2002, that is, 20 years ago.

The reasons for the fall of the yen are the same: divergence from the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Despite the fact that the majority of the Japanese are against the weak yen, the Bank of Japan still refuses to raise the key rate even to zero and does not want to cut monetary stimulus. The regulator believes that maintaining economic activity is much more important than fighting inflation.

The regular meeting of the Japanese Central Bank will take place next week, on Thursday, April 28. According to strategists of Singapore's UOB Group (United Overseas Bank), the regulator will once again leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. “We are confident,” write UOB economists, “that the BOJ will maintain its current loose monetary policy unchanged throughout 2022, and will also maintain massive stimulus, possibly until fiscal year 2023 at least.”

The yen received some support from reports that Treasury Secretary Shunichi Suzuki discussed the idea of coordinated foreign exchange intervention with his counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. And it seems that "the American side sounded as if it would positively consider this idea." However, a source from the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampened hopes for a joint effort between the two countries, refusing to comment on the details of the conversation between Suzuki and Yellen.

Having renewed a multi-year high, the pair USD/JPY bounced back a little in the second half of the five-day period and ended it at the level of 128.53. 40% of experts vote for the bulls to storm new heights, 30% have taken the opposite position and 30% adhere to neutrality. Among indicators on D1, 100% of trend indicators look north, among oscillators, these are 90% of them (a third are in the overbought zone), the remaining 10% point south. The nearest support is located at 127.80-128.00, followed by 127.45, 126.30-126.75 zone and levels 126.00 and 125.00. The resistances are located at levels 128.70, 129.10 and 129.39. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing we can assume is that they will set a high of January 01, 2002, 135.19, as a distant target. Taking into account the fact that the pair has risen by 1400 points over the past 7 weeks, it can reach this height in a month and a half if this pace is maintained.

Aside from the BOJ meeting and its monetary policy report, there is no other important information on the state of the Japanese economy expected this week.

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[Stan NordFX]

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC from $30,000 to $200,000

Throughout 2022, bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The reason for such fluctuations, of course, is the US Federal Reserve. Investors cannot finally decide how to behave in the face of tightening monetary policy and rising dollar interest rates. As a result, their appetite for risk falls and flares up again. First of all, this applies to the stock market, along with which digital gold fluctuates as well.

We have repeatedly considered the correlation of the BTC/USD pair with the shares of technology companies. So, according to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reached its high since July 2020. The same indicator between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historic low. It is physical gold that has recently been acting as a hedge against inflation, and its price came close to its historical maximum, reaching $2.070 per ounce on March 08 (the maximum price of $2.075 was recorded on August 2, 2020).

Bitcoin-ETP (Exchange Traded Product) shows an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 will be updated by the end of the month, when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin network has dropped to 15.6 million, about 30% less than the January 2021 high. Many short-term (less than 155 days) holders and speculators have already parted with their BTC holdings, according to Glassnode data.

The market is currently supported by long-term holders (LTH). As we already wrote, there has recently been a trend towards the accumulation of digital gold among them. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. In addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation, bringing their share to 14.26% of the market supply.

At the moment, about 15% of long-term holders are losing, but they not only continue to store coins, but also acquire new ones, counting on their growth in the future. For example, analytics software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up reserves in bitcoin. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. The company's division made its last purchase of $190.5 million in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, April 22, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, at $1.850 trillion ($1.880 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slightly improved its readings: it rose from 22 to 26 points and returned from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone.

The BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,700. The chart of the past four months, with its rising highs and lows, gives investors hope for a further rise in price. However, everything will depend on the May Fed meeting and investor risk sentiment. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index. The same figure of $30,000 is also mentioned by cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe, although he points to another reason: geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe due to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

Many other experts do not expect anything good from the BTC/USD pair in the near future either, although they build optimistic forecasts for the medium and long term. So, according to Anthony Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, the price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. However, he is "worried" about the short-term outlook for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.

Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and said that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Like most analysts, Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one, since much depends on the geopolitical situation in the world now.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is confident that bitcoin is approaching "the point of choosing the direction of the trend." Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”

According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, the BTC/USD pair needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which is at around $47,440 at the time of writing. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

Most likely, the prospect of the return of the flagship cryptocurrency from $30,000 back to $40,000 in the current situation will not please investors very much, since the coin is currently trading in the region of $40,000. Therefore, to cheer them up, we will quote another specialist, Nicholas Merten from DataDash, who believes that BTC can set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”

According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- The financial company Fidelity Investments plans to provide customers with the opportunity to accumulate bitcoins on pension savings. The Wall Street Journal writes about it. The option will become available this summer to employees of the 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans. The addition of other cryptocurrencies is not ruled out in the future, but the share of digital assets in the portfolio should not exceed 20%.

- The innovative strategy of using bitcoin as the main reserve asset will bring a “bright future” to the software provider MicroStrategy for the coming years. Michael Saylor, CEO of the company, said this in a letter to shareholders. “As of April 14, 2022, MicroStrategy remains the largest bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. Together with affiliates, it owns 129,218 BTC, purchased for $3.97 billion at an average price of about $30,700,” the head of the firm said. According to him, the company's cryptocurrency strategy not only increased its value, but also led to greater recognition, helping to attract customers.

- The price of bitcoin will be $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.
Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain. 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.
Experts were asked to name the top five most effective cryptocurrencies. 87% of respondents included ethereum in it. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%, and Solana was third with 55%. Avalanche and Terra close the top 5 with 31% and 30%, respectively.

¬- Businesses will turn to cryptocurrencies as a neutral financial instrument due to rising geopolitical tensions. This opinion was expressed by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. He noted that the world is becoming more and more fragmented, and the US is using the dollar for sanctions pressure. "The dollar is one of the strongest instruments the US has," Zhao said.
According to him, the resulting geopolitical situation will lead to greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Companies and even countries will start using them because of the risk of freezing accounts and other obstacles due to sanctions. As a result, this will reduce the dollar's global influence, as the rest of the world is likely to switch to cryptocurrency, albeit in the long run.

- Hollywood film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The book was published in 2020 and tells how the 19-year-old Buterin rallied a group of developers around the idea of creating a “world computer”. The book tells the story of the team's challenges, from increased regulatory scrutiny to the rise of Wall Street interest.
Ridley Scott who is known for his blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian will co-produce the movie. Camilla Russo and Francisco Gordillo, co-founder of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Avenue Investment, will help him with this.

- Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Tony Weiss has updated his forecast. According to him, bitcoin has broken support levels, so the risks of another strong fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen. “If bitcoin closes below $39,500, I will be extremely bearish for the next week and month. This is a very bad signal because the 4-day and the week charts will be completely bearish,” Weiss said.

- Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. bitcoin is currently inside the “big wedge” pattern, and it will be broken in the coming weeks, the asset itself is expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, Kaleo warned that a break of the $38,500 level could trigger another round of bitcoin's decline and a bounce above $41,000 would not change the situation much.

- Kevin O'Leary, entrepreneur and star of the reality show Shark Tank, believes that the global tightening of mining regulation will force companies to switch to green energy. “The old ways of mining, the era of ignoring politicians, governments, the Securities and Exchange Commission, is over,” O'Leary said. He stated in an interview with First Mover that nuclear and hydropower could take an important place in the crypto mining industry in the future.

- According to analyst Kevin Swenson, one should follow the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange in order to accurately predict trend reversals. This indicator has correctly pointed him to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. “Weekly volumes on Coinbase are my favourite, and this indicator has almost never let me down before.” says the specialist.
Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

- Another analyst, Jason Pizzino, explained under what conditions the bitcoin rate will reach $1 million. At the same time, the expert expressed confidence that this will happen sooner or later. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.
The specialist said that he fully agrees with the opinion of the head of ARK Invest Catherine Wood and CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the $1 million price mark. According to their forecasts, this will happen closer to 2030. Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

- According to Chainalysis, crypto investors worldwide earned $162.7 billion in 2021, up 400% from the previous year ($32.5 billion), as the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. In terms of profitability, ethereum is ahead of bitcoin with $76.3 billion, which brought investors $74.7 billion. At the same time, American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. For comparison, British investors earned "only" $8.2 billion.

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort has reconsidered his attitude to the cryptocurrency market. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013.
Now Belfort has said he is a firm believer in cryptocurrencies and blockchain, despite once making a YouTube video in which he called bitcoin a collective delusion. He changed his attitude towards cryptocurrency because he learned how it works. However, he is somewhat distressed by the problem of fraud in this industry. The financier admitted that he himself was robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction, which was very frustrating. And that's why he now actively advocates for tighter regulation of the crypto industry.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022

The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD. Draws will take place on July 04, October 04, 2022, and January 04, 2023.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner.

Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 02 - 06, 2022​

EUR/USD: Euro Updates Five-Year Low, We Are Waiting for the Fed (FOMC) Meeting

The DXY index that measures the US dollar against a basket of six other major currencies updated its 20-year high on Thursday, April 28. The reason for this growth is still the same, and we have repeatedly written about it: the Fed began to tighten its monetary policy earlier than other major central banks. It is expected that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) may raise the key interest rate by 0.5% at the next meeting on May 4. This is the minimum. For example, James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, did not rule out that the rate could be raised by 0.75% straight away.

Other national regulators are moving much more slowly (or not at all) amid the US Fed's hawkish activity. Their economies are showing weaker recovery from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this does not allow central banks to quickly curtail monetary programs incentives (QE) and increase borrowing costs.

Of course, this applies to the European Union as well, which also suffers additional economic losses caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the military invasion of Ukraine. Recall that the dependence of the EU countries on Russian energy resources is very high.

Against this background, the dollar continued to push the European currency, and the EUR/USD pair rewrote the five-year low, falling to 1.0470 on April 28. Thus, the losses of the European currency has exceeded 700 points in April alone. There was a slight rebound at the very end of the five-day period and a finish at the level of 1.0545.

The level of 1.0500 plays the role of a support, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, to a fairly strong correction to the north. If this does not happen, then the next target for the bears will be the 2016 low of 1.0325. It is possible that we will see the parity of the euro and the dollar 1:1 soon. However, much depends on what happens to the interest rate at the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 4, and what will be said by the management of this regulator at the subsequent press conference.

At the time of writing, analysts' votes are almost evenly divided. 35% are confident that the dollar will continue to strengthen, 30% have the opposite opinion, the remaining 35% have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Not surprisingly, with the current dynamics of the pair, 100% of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 25% of the latter give signals of the pair being oversold. The nearest support is located at 1.0500, followed by the April 28 low of 1.0470, and the bears' further goals for EUR/USD are described above. The nearest resistance zone is 1.0550-1.0600, 1.0750-1.0800, 1.0830-1.0860, 1.0900-1.0935 and 1.1000.

As for the coming week, in addition to event No. 1, the Fed meeting, the calendar includes the release of data on retail sales in Germany and business activity in US manufacturing sector (ISM) on Monday, May 02. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak the next day. We will find out the volume of retail sales in the European Union as a whole on Wednesday, May 04. The ADP report on US private sector employment will be published on this day as well. Another portion of data from the US labor market will arrive on Friday, May 06, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: The Pound Updates its Two-Year Low, We Are Waiting for the Meeting of the Bank of England

We stated in the previous review that the bulls' battle for 1.3000 is lost. Answering the question whether there will be a counteroffensive, the majority of experts (65%) answered that no, there won't be, and the pound will continue to fall. This forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and despite the oversold signals, the GBP/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.2410 on Thursday, April 28. The last time it was at this level was in June 2020. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded in the 1.2575 zone.

Next week will see not only the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but also that of the Bank of England. According to forecasts, the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. However, since its meeting will be held on May 5, that is, a day later than the Fed, the nine members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the Bank will have time to adjust their position depending on the decision of their overseas colleagues.

In the meantime, the vast majority of experts (70%) remain neutral ahead of both meetings. 15% of them have taken the liberty of predicting a further weakening of the British pound, the same amount expects the pair to correct to the north. There is still a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% among both trend indicators and oscillators. The immediate target of the bears is to overcome the support at 1.2500, further targets for the pair's decline are located at the levels of 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2075 and 1.2000. As for the bulls, if they manage to seize the initiative, they will face resistance in the zones of 1.2600, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

Regarding the release of statistics on the economy of the United Kingdom, the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in the manufacturing sector will be published on Tuesday, May 3. The Composite PMI and the PMI in the services sector will be announced the next day, a little ahead of the Bank of England meeting. The publication of PMI in the UK construction sector on Friday 06 May will complete the picture of business activity.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: The Yen Updates a 20-Year low. What else to expect?

A new anti-record for the Japanese currency was fixed at 131.25 yen per dollar. The USD/JPY pair made a correction to the south in the first half of the week: up to the level of 126.92. But then, following the meeting of the Bank of Japan, we witnessed a new rally of 433 points. This was followed by a rather powerful bounce by 190 points and a finish at 129.75.

Some experts expected that the Japanese regulator might step back a bit from its ultra-soft monetary policy. Moreover, before that, various government officials had talked a lot about the fact that Japanese households are unhappy with the surge in inflation, and that, given the actions of the US Federal Reserve, it would be time to adjust their monetary policy. But the Bank of Japan remained true to itself, leaving the negative interest rate (-0.1%) unchanged and declaring its readiness to buy an unlimited number of bonds each session as needed.

According to many analysts, the Central Bank will maintain its soft monetary policy unchanged throughout 2022, and will also maintain massive incentives, perhaps at least until fiscal year 2023.

The yen was further hit by rising US 10-year Treasury yields, which rose 48 bp to 2.83% in April alone, widening the gap with similar Japanese securities. And here is the result: if the pound fell to a two-year low, the euro - to a five-year low, the yen fell to the lowest values in the last twenty years!

35% of experts vote for the fact that the bulls will storm new heights, 50% have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% are neutral, waiting for the May meeting of the Fed. Among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% are looking north, but among oscillators, 15% signal that the pair is overbought.

The nearest support is located at 129.00-129.40, followed by 127.80-128.00, 127.45, 126.30-126.75 zone and levels 126.00 and 125.00. Resistances are located at the levels of 130.00-130.35 and 131.00-131.25. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing that can be assumed is that they will set the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 as their goal. If the pair's growth rate is maintained, it can reach this height as early as in June.

No important information regarding the state of the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. Traders also need to keep in mind the two upcoming holidays: Japan celebrates Constitution Day on Tuesday, May 03, and the Greenery Day on Wednesday May 04.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Trends, Forecasts and Hollywood

Bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000 throughout 2022, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The fight between bulls and bears continued last week as well. Looking at the chart of the BTC/USD pair, it is clear that the bears have had a clear advantage over the past five weeks. Bulls, of course, are making attempts to turn the tide, but no success is yet to be seen.

At the time of writing, Friday evening, April 29, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion: at $1.752 trillion ($1.850 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly worsened its readings: it has dropped from 26 to 23 points and has returned from the Fear zone to the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair is trading around $38,700.

The correlation of the flagship cryptocurrency with stock indices such as the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite is still very strong. The correction in US tech companies began late last year, and many of the industry's stocks are currently trading 50-70% below their highs. Investors, anticipating a sharp rise in interest rates by the Fed, switched to the US dollar, losing their appetite for risk assets, which hit the stock and cryptocurrency markets. The high risk of stagflation in many developed countries, the new coronavirus outbreak in China, the escalation of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and other processes affecting the global economy do not add optimism. So, there are many chances for bitcoin to go down to $30,000 per coin.

According to trader and analyst Tony Weiss, the main cryptocurrency has broken support levels, so the risks of another big fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen.

Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. (Recall that the BTC/USD pair found a bottom at $29.066 on June 22, 2021). Bitcoin is currently inside a big wedge pattern and according to Kaleo, it will be broken in the coming weeks, with the asset itself expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, the expert warned that even if we see a bounce above $41,000, it will not change the situation much.

Analyst Kevin Swenson has suggested a way to accurately predict trend reversals. According to him, it is necessary to monitor the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange. This indicator has correctly pointed for Swenson to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

But, despite the current bearish trend, not everything is so sad. The price of bitcoin may reach $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.

87% of respondents included ethereum in the list of the most effective cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%. Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain, 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.

Recall that giving a long-term forecast, the head of ARK Invest, Katherine Wood, and CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, expressed the opinion that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the price mark of $1 million. According to them, this will happen closer to 2030.

The same figure of $1 million was voiced by another specialist, Jason Pizzino last week, who explained under what conditions the coin will reach this mark. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.

Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

Chainalysis experts indirectly confirmed Jason Pizzino's bullish sentiment. According to them, crypto investors earned $162.7 billion in 2021, which is 400% more than in the previous year, 2020 ($32.5 billion). This happened because the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. At $76.3 billion, ethereum outperformed bitcoin, which brought in $74.7 billion to investors. American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. By comparison, British savers earned "only" $8.2 billion.

And at the end of the review, some news from the world ... of books and movies. Firstly, the film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The movie will be co-produced by such a Hollywood luminary as Ridley Scott, known for his work on the blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian.

Another newsmaker of the week was former stockbroker Jordan Belfort. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013. And now this financial “wolf” admitted that he himself was recently robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction. The irony of fate...


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Kenneth Griffin, CEO of Citadel hedge fund, said his company will enter the digital asset market as a liquidity provider. According to Griffin, despite his skepticism about cryptocurrencies, he is forced to recognize their value. The billionaire compared these digital assets to his collection of American abstract paintings, noting that bitcoin is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. “Why is a painting worth $10 million? This is oil on canvas. So, the value is in the eye of the beholder,” he explained.

- Another billionaire, Warren Buffett, said he sees no value in bitcoins, CNBC reports. “What would I do with them? One way or another, I would have to sell them back to you. It won't do anything. Apartments will bring rent, and farms will produce food. Assets must produce something, bring real benefits,” the legendary investor explained.
Buffett is known for his negative attitude towards bitcoin. In February 2020, he called the first cryptocurrency "complete zero" with no value. The billionaire had earlier predicted the collapse of the crypto industry. When talking about bitcoin, he used terms like “rat poison squared” and “illusion without unique value.”

- One of the largest banks in Argentina, Banco Galicia, has opened access to cryptocurrencies for its clients. Users can purchase bitcoin, ethereum, ripple and USDC stablecoin on its platform. The organization explained this initiative by demand from the clients. Another Argentine bank, Brubank, also announced the launch of a cryptocurrency service.

- Bitcoin will test the $28,000 level, according to Peter Brandt, trader and head of Factor LLC. The expert drew attention to the pattern that the price of the first cryptocurrency has formed since the beginning of the year, and the breakdown of its lower border. “The completion of a bearish channel usually results in a decline equal to its width. In this case, in a hard test of $32,000 or so, but I think $28,000,” Brandt commented. At the same time, he stressed that the negative outlook does not make him a “bitcoin hater”.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in April that bitcoin would fall to $30,000 at the end of the first half of the year. He attributed this to a possible decline in the Nasdaq-100 index, with which digital gold is highly correlated. Analysts at Arcane Research confirmed that this statistical relationship is at its highest since July 2020.
However, fintech experts who took part in the Finder survey expect quotes of the leading cryptocurrency to be above $65,000 at the end of the year with subsequent growth. Hayes himself does not doubt the prospects of bitcoin, predicting a rise in the price of the coin to $1 million by the end of the decade.

- Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen also believes that there should be a major capitulation of bitcoin before the bullish reversal begins. According to him, it will spur another round of a bullish rally.
As the BTC price dropped below the $40,000 level again, Cowen outlined a scenario for a possible fall. The trader noted the three most important long-term moving averages that keep BTC at the level of support for a multi-year uptrend: 300-, 200- and 100-week SMA. A drop below the 100-week SMA has historically been a great opportunity for bulls: “The 100-week SMA is around $36,000 now, and there is an optimal time to buy BTC every time it goes below it,” Cowen said. But if the fall gains strength, the BTC rate, in his opinion, may collapse even more and test the level of the 200-week moving average, $21,600. “Many people do not believe that this can happen,” the trader says, “but it is possible. I used to buy BTC at $6,000 and then the rate fell to $3,000. Then I bought BTC at $7,000 and $10,000 and the rate fell again to $3,800. So this has happened before and can happen now.”
Bitcoin’s 300-week moving average was briefly touched only once during the COVID-19-driven market crash in March 2020. Cowen doesn't expect a repeat, but notes that its mark is currently around $21,400.

- Unlike Arthur Hayes and Benjamin Cowen, analyst Michael van de Poppe thinks the network data hints at a possible bullish reversal in bitcoin. According to him, “BTC hash rate has reached another all-time high, although there is a tightening in the cryptocurrency space. Thus, the demand for BTC mining is growing, the network is becoming safer, and the asset price should respond to this.”
According to van de Poppe, a serious impulsive wave can be expected due to a possible correction in the US dollar index (DXY). “In my opinion, a serious move up is quite possible, especially if the US dollar shows weakness,” the analyst said. “In the event that the Fed abandons a strong tightening of monetary policy, the dollar will weaken, and this will become the impetus for the upward movement of bitcoin.”

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Mike McGlone believes that a sharp correction in the stock market will force the US Federal Reserve to change its position on tightening monetary policy, which will provoke bullish runs in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. “The Fed will continue its policy until the stock market drops enough to force the Fed to pause. That's when I think we'll see the rise of bitcoin, ethereum and maybe Solana."
“If you want a good downside indicator for bitcoin and altcoins, these are Fed Funds futures. This is what the market expects from the Fed in a year. They are valued at 3% right now, maybe more, and the actual rate is 1%. As soon as this forward expectation starts to decrease, I think that bitcoin will hit the bottom,” the analyst said.

- Brian Armstrong, speaking at the Milken Institute conference, stated that despite the rather unstable state of the crypto market since the beginning of 2022, he remains optimistic about the future of the industry. Armstrong added that the number of cryptocurrency users will increase 5 times over the next 10-20 years and reach more than 1 billion people.
Armstrong noted a significant increase in the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States. According to him, “it is increasingly difficult to meet a real crypto-skeptic in the District of Columbia” and added that more than 50% of the population of Washington support cryptocurrency currently.

- A recently published report by the analytical company DappRadar demonstrates the growth of crypto activity in the US, Russia and Ukraine. And if the increase in demand for digital assets is due to sanctions and a humanitarian catastrophe in the last two states, respectively, the global acceptance of virtual money in the United States is the result of an increase in the number of traders and crypto companies.
According to the results of the study, a record number of new companies related to the blockchain, metaverse, NFT and digital assets was recorded in the United States only in the first quarter of this year. The document says that even the fall of bitcoin does not affect the overall mood in the market.
DappRadar analysts note that the popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased not only in the above countries, but it has also happened all over the world. For example, against the background of the threat of global inflation, the demand for virtual money in Brazil and India has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively.

- The identity and whereabouts of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the first digital currency, is considered one of the greatest mysteries of the cryptocurrency community. Eleven years after Nakamoto last reported to colleagues, the circumstances and reasons for his disappearance continue to concern the community. Another version is that the CIA is behind this.
The editor of Bitcoin magazine Pete Rizzo has recently said that he had established a possible link between Nakamoto's disappearance and former lead crypto developer and current Bitcoin Foundation chief scientist Gavin Andresen's visit to a CIA meeting in June 2011. Andersen was concerned about the attention of the secret service, which has the ability to influence the development of the project and force the developers to do what they do not want. And now Rizzo claims that it was after this visit that Nakamoto was “never seen again.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

April Results: NordFX TOP-3 Traders' Earnings Exceed 230,000 USD

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit this month was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No.1620XXX, who earned 146,396 USD on gold (XAU/USD) trades.

The second place on the podium was taken by a trader from South Asia, account No.1621XXX, with a result of 64,004 USD, which was achieved thanks to transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD).

The third place belongs to the owner of account No. 1619XXX. Having chosen gold (XAU/USD), silver (XAG/USD) and euro (EUR/USD) as trading instruments, they made a profit of 21,184 USD.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 225% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD got only 0.19% in their arsenal. Another signal from the same supplier, KennyFXPRO-Prismo 2K is two months younger than the first one. The profit on it is less, 128%, but the drawdown was also lower, about 45%.

Among the newcomers, we can note the Darto Capital signal, which showed a yield of 197% in just 17 days with a maximum drawdown of 25%. This result is, of course, impressive. However, this is a fairly aggressive trading style, so subscribers should be as careful as possible and not forget about risk management.

- The TOP-3 in the PAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 100% in 462 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 21%. TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a 72% profit in 393 days with a similar maximum drawdown of less than 21%, and NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated 60% income since June 11, 2021, with the same drawdown of about 21%, are also among the leaders. As in CopyTrading, the vast majority of trades here were made with the NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs.

The Ultimate.Duo-Safe Haven account, which started relatively recently, at the end of February, attracted attention. During this time, it brought not the biggest profit of 17%, but the maximum drawdown on it did not exceed 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 4,683 USD, was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1582ХXХ;
- the next is their compatriot, account No.1565XXX, who received 4,529 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from East Asia, account No.1336XXX, who received $4,031 as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. Another super-lottery for NordFX clients has started this year. There will be 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize pool is exactly 100,000 USD.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 09 - 13, 2022​

EUR/USD: A week of Many Multi-Year Records

Although some hotheads, such as James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, believed that the interest rate could be raised by 0.75% straight away, everything happened as the market expected. Following the May 4 meeting, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raised the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 1.0%. This increase was the largest since May 2000, as the US Central Bank has been changing the rate in steps of 0.25% for the last 22 years.

According to the US Federal Reserve, the key interest rate will continue to rise, as the labor market remains quite strong, and inflation is high, reaching its highest levels in 40 years. The regulator also decided to start a “quantitative tightening” from June 1. The pace of the Fed's balance sheet drawdown could rise from $35 billion in June to $65 billion in July, and then to a maximum of $95 billion per month starting in August.

At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his comments that the Central Bank is not considering an active increase in interest rates by 0.75% at the upcoming meetings. These words eased concerns about the accelerated pace of monetary tightening, which pushed Treasury yields off their highs. The market felt that the Fed was not aggressive enough, and trading on US stock exchanges on Thursday, May 05 ended with a rise, pulling cryptocurrency quotes along with it.

However, the jubilation of risk asset advocates was short-lived. The very next day, on the morning of May 06, the DXY dollar index reached a multi-year high, rising above 104.00. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago.

A massive, wide-ranging sell-off began in the stock and treasury bond markets. Technology stocks were particularly hard hit. The S&P 500 fell 4% to its lowest level since May 2021, while the NASDAQ Composite lost over 5%. At the same time, 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2018, rising above 3%.

Some experts called the event "a tug of war between the bond market, which wants more aggressive action by the Fed, and the stock market, which wants the Fed to act more moderately."

Despite the growth of the DXY Index, the EUR/USD pair behaved quite calmly. It has been moving in the side channel 1.0470-1.0640 since April 27, which periodically narrowed to 1.0500-1.0580. In addition to the expected results of the Fed meeting, which had already been included in the quotes, and Jerome Powell's comments, data from the US labor market, received on Friday, May 06, could have brought some revival. However, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) remained unchanged at the level of the previous month, 428K. As a result, the pair hesitated a bit and ended the five-day period in the central zone of the named channel: at the level of 1.0540.

A former senior US Central Bank official suggested earlier that the federal funds cost rate could eventually reach 5.0% after a series of increases. If the market decides it will, the dollar's bullish rally will continue and it could reach 1:1 parity with the euro. In the meantime, analysts' voices are divided as follows: 75% are sure that the dollar will continue to strengthen, while only 25% have the opposite opinion. 90% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 which are colored red side with the dollar, respectively, 10% and 15% are colored green. Immediate support is at 1.0500, followed by the April 28 low at 1.0470, the next bearish target for EUR/USD could be the 2016 low of 1.0325. The nearest resistance zone is 1.0570-1.0600, then there are zones 1.0750-1.0800, 1.0830-1.0860, 1.0900-1.0935 and 1.1000.

There will be few significant economic events next week. The calendar could mark Wednesday May 11 and Friday May 13 when the data for the German and US consumer markets come in. Also, changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will become known at the very end of the working week. And we should not forget about the active hostilities that are taking place in Ukraine, in the immediate vicinity of the EU borders, and the “surprises” that the Kremlin may present in response to sanctions imposed on by the European Union.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- The number of “whales” among bitcoin holders, whose capital exceeds 1000 BTC, is rapidly declining. This figure has already reached its lows since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on the exchanges, on the contrary, is at its maximum over the past three months. According to Glassnode analysts, the average volume of coin inflows to centralized exchanges is now hovering around 1755 BTC.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a rapid fall in the price of the coin: BTC set a new local low at $29,730 on May 10. This is the lowest result in 2022 and is more than 54% below the all-time high. The pressure on the market is exerted by the coin holders themselves, who, due to panic, are ready to get rid of them even at a loss. Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 10 points out of 100 possible, firmly entrenching itself in the Extreme Fear zone.

- The next few quarters will be volatile for the market due to the negative situation on Wall Street, which will jeopardize the support levels of $30,000 for bitcoin and $2,000 for ethereum. This point of view was expressed by Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz.
As of March 31, Galaxy Digital had $2.7 billion in assets under management, down 5% from its December 31 estimate. Galaxy Digital's net cumulative loss was $111.7 million for January-March, compared with a profit of $858.2 million for the same period last year. This is largely due to losses on digital assets.
“Until we reach a new equilibrium, digital assets will continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq. My intuition tells me that there will still be a drawdown ahead, and this will occur in a very unstable, volatile and complex market,” Mike Novogratz explained. He warned that the negative scenario could be realized if the Nasdaq index fell below 11,000 (12,500 at the time of writing).

- ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes that the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets indicates that the bearish trend will end soon. The businesswoman opined that the depreciation of bitcoin along with the traditional market is a temporary phenomenon: “Cryptocurrency is a new asset class that should not follow the Nasdaq, but that is what is happening. We are currently in a bearish trend where all assets are moving in the same way and we are seeing one market after another capitulate, but cryptocurrencies may be close to completing it.”
The head of ARK Invest believes that the cryptocurrency market will grow exponentially as traditional assets collapse. “The current recession in the stock and bond markets, commodities and cryptocurrency markets is causing negative sentiment among investors. But look at our research… I can’t even tell you how confident we are that our products will change the world and are already on an exponential growth trajectory.” According to Wood, blockchain is in a technology sector that will grow more than 20 times in the next seven to eight years.

- The first cryptocurrency can be very successful, but it can also fail, so betting solely on it is risky. This opinion was expressed by a veteran of the bitcoin industry, a 2020 US presidential candidate, billionaire Brock Pierce in an interview with Fox Business. “Bitcoin could drop to zero. This is a binary result. Either there will be $1 million per BTC, or zero,” he said.
Pierce believes that the current “cryptocurrency landscape” is very similar to the history of the tech companies' bubble. “The situation is very similar to 1999. The market is now in the same phase. So what happened then? After the dot-com bubble, eBay, Amazon and other interesting companies appeared, but a lot of businesses went bankrupt. But this does not mean that digital assets are unrealistic and will not play an important role in our collective future,” the billionaire said.
Pierce admitted that he diversified his portfolio, primarily through ethereum. He also placed a “nine zeros” bet on EOS, converting all of his Block.one shares into cryptocurrency.

- Self-proclaimed creator of the main cryptocurrency, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright has sued cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Kraken. This was reported by the law firm Ontier. He claims that these platforms misrepresent information by offering Bitcoin Core asset to customers under the guise of Bitcoin. According to Wright, the only digital asset “that remains true to the original bitcoin protocol” is Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.
“These and other exchanges have encouraged investors and consumers to trade and invest in Bitcoin Core, passing off this asset as bitcoin, despite it being created in 2017 as a software implementation that is different from the bitcoin protocol established by Dr. Wright when creating the electronic money system more than 13 years ago,” Ontier said in a statement.
Recall that Craig Wright himself claims that he is Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious inventor of bitcoin. According to Wright, he helped create the first cryptocurrency with his friend, the late computer security expert Dave Kleiman.

- BTC is a good insurance against inflation, but not a full-fledged alternative to gold. This position was expressed by the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio. The billionaire pointed to the obstacles to making bitcoin a reserve asset: “Transactions can be traced. They can be controlled, canceled and made illegal.” At the same time, the businessman expressed optimism about the prospects for the digital industry in the next ten years.

- Bank Of America, on the contrary, questioned bitcoin as a means of escape from inflation. The first cryptocurrency correlates well in its price behavior with the dynamics of the stock market since July 2021. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on January 31. The new all-time high was also close in correlation with the Nasdaq 100. In contrast, the price relationship between bitcoin and gold has been gradually weakening since 2021 and has turned negative in the last two months. The bank’s specialists emphasized that this trend “became obvious”, so bitcoin is not a full-fledged replacement for gold.

- The crypto community celebrated another mini-anniversary on May 5: bitcoin has overcome exactly half of the way to its next halving. It happened on block 735,000. Halving is reducing mining rewards by half. The event takes place every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. At the same time, the rules of this procedure are written in the cryptocurrency code, which means that it is impossible to influence it without the consent of the majority of blockchain users. There are a little less than 105 thousand blocks left until the next such event.
Halving cycles are one of the main mechanisms of the bitcoin network, which involves halving the BTC reward for miners. Accordingly, the issue of bitcoins is also halved since miners' rewards are the only source of issuing new coins.
From the inception of bitcoin to the first halving, miners were rewarded with 50 BTC per block. Then the amount in bitcoins was reduced to 25 BTC, and in the next cycle to 12.5 BTC. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC for mining a block.
The halving date can be predicted to within a couple of days, because the block production time fluctuates around 10 minutes. The previous halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next one will take place approximately in April 2024.
Halvings are considered very important events for another reason: as observations show, the explosive growth in the price of BTC is associated with them. So, before the first halving, BTC cost about $127, before the second, its price rose to $758, and before the third, to $10,943.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 16 - 20, 2022​

EUR/USD: On the Way to 1.0000

The dollar continues to rise, while the EUR/USD pair continues to fall. The DXY dollar index crept close to 104.9 on Thursday, May 12. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago. The pair found the bottom at the level of 1.0349, in the area of the lows of December 2016 - January 2017. A little more, and following DXY, it will get to where it traded 20 years ago. And there, parity 1:1 is just a stone's throw away.

The reason for the next strengthening of the US currency was, as usual, two factors: the recovery of the labor market and the growth of inflation. It is these factors that determine the pace of tightening monetary policy by the Fed.

According to the forecast, US jobless claims should have shown a slight increase. But the actual data, released on Thursday May 12, showed that the situation in the labor market is much better than expected. The number of initial requests has grown, but not by 3K, as predicted, but only by 1K. The number of repeated requests, instead of increasing by 3K, decreased by as much as 44K.

A day earlier, on May 11, inflation data appeared. The core consumer price index in the US increased by 0.3% in April and amounted to 0.6%. This growth is much less than the 1.2% increase in March. But this does not mean at all that inflation in the country has reached a peak and will only decrease further. Not at all. Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, pushing up the cost of goods, transportation costs and household spending. New cars increased in price by 1.1% in April (only by 0.2% in March), while airfare prices rose by 18.6% over the month, showing the largest increase in 60 years. In addition, with a high degree of probability, a series of lockdowns in China due to a new wave of coronavirus will lead to problems with logistics and commodity exchange, which will not help reduce inflation either.

The combination of these factors suggests that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its plans to tighten monetary policy: to reduce the balance sheet and raise rates. Following the head of the regulator Jerome Powell, his colleagues in the FOMC - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester and the head of the New York Fed John Williams supported the intention to raise the federal funds rate by 0.5% at each of the two upcoming meetings, bringing it to 2.0%.

As for their counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB's key figures advocating a start to raise interest rates are still in the minority. Most members of the Board of Governors of the Bank are still convinced that the increase in inflation in the Eurozone is a temporary phenomenon, caused primarily by rising energy prices due to sanctions against Russia, which invaded Ukraine.

As a result, a powerful divergence between the clearly hawkish position of the US Fed and the indistinctly dovish position of the ECB continues to push the EUR/USD pair down, forcing new multi-year lows.

At the moment, analysts' voices are divided as follows: 70% of analysts are confident that the dollar will continue to strengthen, the remaining 30% are waiting for the pair's correction to the north. At the same time, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of those voting for the growth of the pair increases to 80%. All 100% of the indicators on D1 side with the dollar, after another fall of the pair. However, 20% of oscillators are in the oversold zone. The nearest resistance is located in the zone of 1.0420, the next target of the bulls on EUR/USD is a return to the zone of 1.0480-1.0580. If successful, they will then try to break through the resistance at 1.0640 and rise to the zone of 1.0750-1.0800. For the bears, the number 1 task is to update the May 13 low of 1.0350, after which they will storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, below are only the support of 20 years ago.

As for the calendar for the coming week, we recommend paying attention to the publication of data on prices and volumes of retail sales in the US on Tuesday, May 17. The speeches of the heads of the ECB Christine Lagarde and of the Fed Jerome Powell are expected on the same day. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index will be known on Wednesday, May 18, and data on manufacturing activity and the state of the labor market in the United States will be received on Thursday, May 19.

GBP/USD: GBP Rate Hike Is Possible, But Not Obvious

As mentioned above, the DXY dollar index has reached 20-year highs. According to experts, it has risen by 5.1% over the past 4 weeks. At the same time, the GBP/USD pair fell 7.4%, outperforming the average by 2.3%. However, not everything is so bad for the British currency.

The Bank of England predicted a rise in inflation from the current 7.0% (30-year high) to 10.25% at its meeting on May 05. And although the regulator left the forecast for GDP growth for the current year unchanged (+3.75%), it expects a recession starting from the Q4. The British Central Bank expects a 0.25% reduction in GDP in 2023 instead of the previously planned growth of 1.25%. According to the new forecast, GDP will grow not by 1.0%, but by only 0.25% in 2024.

This scenario, of course, cannot be called optimistic. However, a week later, on May 12, statistics showed that the country's GDP in the Q1 rose by 8.7% year-on-year, seriously exceeding the previous figure of 6.6%. This dynamics gives investors hope that the regulator will not stop at the current interest rate of 1.0%, and like the Fed, it will go on further raising it in order to fight inflation. And this, in turn, will support the British currency. Or at least keep it from sliding further down.

GBP/USD hit a weekly low at 1.2154, with the last chord at 1.2240. In case of further correction to the north, the pair will have to overcome the resistance in the zone 1.2300-1.2330, then there are zones 1.2400, 1.2470-1.2570, 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000. When moving south, the first support will be the level of 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. 85% of experts vote for further weakening of the British currency, 15% expect a rebound upwards. And here it should be noted that when switching to forecasting until the end of the June, the number of the pair's growth supporters increases to 75%. There is still a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% among trend indicators and 90% among oscillators look down. The remaining 10% among the latter have turned north.

As for the events of the upcoming week concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the publication of data on unemployment and wages in the country on Tuesday May 17. The new value of the Consumer Price Index will become known on Wednesday, May 18, and retail sales in the UK for April at the end of the working week, on Friday, May 20.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: From Return on Capital to Its Safety

The Japanese yen performed better last week than its "colleagues", the euro and the British pound. As most experts expected, the bulls tried to renew the April 28 high at 131.24. However, having risen only 10 pips higher to 131.34, they gave up, and the USD/JPY pair flew down, finding support only at 127.51. Undoubtedly, the current volatility of the pair is impressive: the weekly trading range was 383 points. This is despite the fact that it hovered around 150 points on average in the Q4 2021 - the Q1 2022. The finish of the last week took place in the central zone of the indicated range, at the level of 129.30.

Barring volatility during the coronavirus pandemic, the USD/JPY drop on Thursday May 12 was the biggest one-day swing since 2010. The strengthening of the Japanese currency, according to a number of experts, was due to the increased craving of investors for the most risk-free assets. Up to this point, the dollar has risen on the back of rising interest rates and higher yields on 10-year US Treasury bills. However, if investors continue to prefer capital preservation over returns, USD/JPY will continue to fall.

The yen was also strengthened by the expectation of changes in the policy of the Bank of Japan. Many investors, especially foreign ones, are expecting that, despite the regulator's assurances of commitment to an ultra-soft monetary policy, it may still go for an increase in interest rates. Moreover, there have already been such precedents, albeit in the opposite direction. Markets remember 2016, when the head of the Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, first denied the possibility of introducing negative rates categorically, and then suddenly decided to take such a step.

At the moment, experts' forecasts look as uncertain as the pair's quotes. 40% vote for its growth, 50% are in favor of the fall of the pair and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. There is a similar discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 65% are green, 35% are red. The oscillators have 40% on the green side, 25% on the red side, and 35% hve turned neutral gray. The nearest support is located at 128.60, followed by zones and levels at 128.00, 127.50, 127.00, 126.30-126.75, 126.00 and 125.00. The goal of the bulls is to rise above the 130.00 horizon and renew the May 05 high at 131.34. The January 1, 2002 high of 135.19 is seen as the final goal.

Data on Japan's GDP for the Q1 of this year will be published next week, on Wednesday, May 18. It is expected that this indicator will decrease by 0.4% from the previous value of 1.1%.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "$1 Million per BTC, or Zero"

If you read the headlines of the last week, you get the strong impression that the cryptocurrencies have only a few months left to live, if not days. “Crypto Market Massacre”, “Bitcoin Requiem”, “Crypto Bubble Burst” are just some of them. But is it all that scary?

Indeed, the market suffers very serious losses. Bitcoin has lost about 45% of its value since the end of March, hitting $26,580 on May 12. Most other coins feel even worse. As has been said many times, the cause of panic is the global drop in investor risk appetite. The crypto market only follows in the wake of the stock market: the correlation between digital asset quotes and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq is at its maximum.

The tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, new outbreaks of coronavirus in China, fears about the future of the EU economy: all this has led investors to prefer the dollar over risky assets. An additional driver is rising yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. This figure has almost doubled since March and rose over 3%: to the highest level since 2018, exceeding the returns of most sectors of the US stock market.

In addition to global factors, the collapse of the third largest stablecoin in terms of capitalization, UST, put additional pressure on the crypto market. It is believed that stablecoins serve to facilitate investment transactions and should be pegged to the real dollar in a ratio of 1:1. The price of UST immediately collapsed to $0.64, casting doubt on the ability of the Terra team to maintain its rate. Against the backdrop of problems with UST, the native Terra LUNA token also went down, losing more than 90% of its price. It cost about $120 back in April, but you can buy it for $5 now. And here it must be borne in mind that the Terra blockchain protocol is a fairly large project that was in the TOP-10 in terms of market capitalization.

The fate of the centralized stablecoin Tether with a capitalization of $82 billion causes some concern as well. An audit of this project conducted in 2021 showed that instead of dollars, which should provide a reserve for the project, there are a lot of securities in the accounts. Against this background, the sale of USDT has intensified: its capitalization has decreased by $1.4 billion in recent days.

The total capitalization of the crypto market continues to fall. At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, May 13, it is at $1.290 trillion ($1.657 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen from 22 to 10 points out of 100, firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair, after a slight upward rebound, is trading around $30.150. The low of the week, as already mentioned, was fixed at $26.580. The last time the pair was so low was in December 2020.

The number of "whales" among bitcoin holders, whose capital exceeds the bar of 1000 BTC, is rapidly declining. This figure has already reached its lows since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on the exchanges, on the contrary, is at its maximum over the past three months. According to Glassnode analysts, the average volume of coin inflows to centralized exchanges is now hovering around 1755 BTC.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz expressed doubt that the bulls will be able to defend the $30,000 support levels for bitcoin and $2,000 for ethereum. “Until we reach a new equilibrium,” he wrote, “digital assets will continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq. Intuition tells us that there will still be a drawdown ahead, and this will occur in a very unstable, volatile and complex market.” Mike Novogratz warned that the negative scenario could materialize if the Nasdaq index falls below 11,000 (it hit 11,688 on May 12).

Gold apologist, billionaire Peter Schiff, predicted the main cryptocurrency to collapse below $10,000. And another billionaire veteran of the bitcoin industry, 2020 US presidential candidate Brock Pierce said in an interview with Fox Business that it can be very successful, but it can also fail. “Bitcoin could drop to zero. Here is the binary result. Either there will be $1 million per BTC, or zero,” he said.

Pierce believes that the current “cryptocurrency landscape” is very similar to the history of the tech companies' bubble. “The situation is very similar to 1999. The market is now in the same phase. So what happened then? After the dot-com bubble, eBay, Amazon and other interesting companies appeared, but a lot of businesses went bankrupt. But this does not mean that digital assets are unrealistic and will not play an important role in our collective future,” the billionaire said. Pierce admitted that he diversified his portfolio, primarily through Ethereum. He also placed a “nine zeros” bet on EOS, converting all of his Block.one shares into cryptocurrency.

Unlike other influencers, ARK Invest CEO Katherine Wood continues to express sustained optimism and believes that the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets indicates that the bearish trend will end soon. The businesswoman opined that the depreciation of bitcoin along with the traditional market is a temporary phenomenon: “Cryptocurrency is a new asset class that should not follow the Nasdaq, but that is what is happening. We are currently in a bearish trend where all assets are moving in the same way and we are seeing one market after another capitulate, but cryptocurrencies may be close to completing it.”

The head of ARK Invest believes that the cryptocurrency market will grow exponentially as traditional assets collapse. “The current recession in the stock and bond markets, commodities and cryptocurrency markets is causing negative sentiment among investors. But look at our research… I can’t even tell you how confident we are that our products will change the world and are already on an exponential growth trajectory.” According to Wood, blockchain is in a technology sector that will grow more than 20 times in the next seven to eight years.

Another hope for investors is that bitcoin is already halfway to its next halving. It happened at block number 735,000 on May 05. This event occurs every 210 thousand blocks, or approximately once every four years, with a little less than 105 thousand blocks left until the next one. The halving date can be predicted to within a couple of days, because the block production time fluctuates around 10 minutes. The previous halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next one will take place approximately in April 2024.

Halving cycles are one of the main mechanisms of the bitcoin network, which involves halving the BTC reward for miners. Accordingly, the issue of bitcoins is also halved, since miners' rewards are the only source of issuing new coins. From the inception of bitcoin to the first halving, miners were rewarded with 50 BTC per block. Then the amount in bitcoins was reduced to 25 BTC, and in the next cycle to 12.5 BTC. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC for mining a block.

And if miners suffer losses due to halving, investors, on the contrary, earn. As observations show, before the first halving, BTC cost about $127, before the second, its price rose to $758, and before the third, to $10,943. It remains to wait for not so long, less than two years, to find out whether there will be a similar explosive rise in the price of BTC in 2024.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

- Due to the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, investors need more protection, otherwise they may lose confidence in the markets. This was stated by the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler. As a rule, buyers of cryptocurrencies do not receive the amount of information that is typical for other asset classes, the official said. For example, this applies to the trading platforms they use or whether users actually own funds in their digital wallets.
According to him, cryptocurrency markets are considered decentralized, but in reality, most of the activity takes place on a few large trading platforms. Regarding crypto platforms, he recalled the need to comply with the basic principles of the market, such as “fighting fraud, countering manipulation and insider practices, ensuring a real, not fictitious, order book.” Gensler noted that the SEC will continue to work to cover all types of cryptocurrencies with supervision. “There is a lot to be done here, and investors are not so well protected so far,” he concluded.

- FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried questioned bitcoin's ability to become a popular payment system due to the inefficiency and high environmental costs of its blockchain. This is reported by the Financial Times. The top manager pointed out that it is not possible to scale the network “to millions of transactions” [per second]. “Blockchain must be extremely efficient, lightweight and have low energy costs. We should not scale bitcoin to such an extent that the consumption of electricity by miners has increased a hundred times,” he explained. The CEO of FTX, who is already being called the “new Zuckerberg”, stressed that the first cryptocurrency can remain in the status of an asset, a commodity and a store of value.

– Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki called the bitcoin crash “great news” and predicted a test of the $17,000 level. “As I said earlier, I expect bitcoin to fall to $20,000. Then we will wait for the bottom test, which may be $17,000. Once that happens, I'll go big. Crises are the best time to get rich,” he said.
Earlier, Robert Kiyosaki explained sarcastically why he is confident in the long-term success of digital gold: “Bitcoin will win because America is led by three puppets.” He ranked US President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell among them.

- Crypto strategist known as DonAlt believes that after breaking the key psychological support area of $30,000, Bitcoin is ready to show a serious move. “Over the next 3 months, we will either see the capitulation that everyone is waiting for, or bitcoin will close the range and start moving up to $58,000,” the expert writes. – In my opinion, the probability of going down is higher. According to my calculations, the next support is at $14,000, after which a recovery of more than 2 times to the high of the range is possible.”
DonAlt noted that the current structure of the bitcoin market may hint that the bottom has already been reached. However, he fears the strong correlation of BTC with the stock market and the possibility of a collapse in the S&P 500 index.
The trader known as Rekt Capital agreed with the opinion that bitcoin is expected to fall further. The specialist believes that the coin needs to lose another 25% of its value before the expected local minimum.

- One of the main critics of bitcoin, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff believes that the cryptocurrency has an opportunity for a further strong fall. The businessman drew attention to the fact that bitcoin has lost an important support level near $33,000. And the cryptocurrency will have to fall to $8,000 to touch the next level. “The support line has been broken. There is a high probability of movement to the lower support line. The chart shows two patterns at once: a double top and a head-shoulders pattern. This is an ominous combination. We have a long way down,” Peter Schiff wrote on his blog.

- But an analyst nicknamed Pentoshi expects a bitcoin rally soon, as the situation, in his opinion, is in favor of the bulls. According to Pentoshi, the bears are making serious efforts to lower the price of bitcoin, but they are not succeeding in achieving the desired result. “A lot of coins change hands with a lot of effort. But do the sellers receive appropriate remuneration? It doesn't look like it.
As an example, he looked at an inverted chart of bitcoin, which shows extremely high trading volume, coupled with a small exchange rate movement. As Pentoshi believes, the failure of the bears to depreciate BTC despite strong selling pressure suggests that the momentum is about to turn in favor of the bulls.

- During a discussion of the impact of cryptocurrencies on the country's economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), said that they could lead to dollarization, as well as have a negative impact on the banking system. Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that "this seriously undermines the RBI's ability to control the country's monetary policy."
The official fears that cryptocurrencies can become a medium of exchange and replace the national currency in financial transactions both domestically and abroad. “Almost all cryptocurrencies are denominated in dollars and are issued by foreign individuals. This, in the end, can lead to the dollarization of part of our economy, which is contrary to the sovereign interests of the country,” Shaktikanta Das said.
According to various estimates, there are from 15 to 20 million cryptocurrency investors in India with a total volume of crypto assets of about $5.34 billion.

- The cryptocurrency market has recently been actively selling coins, as investors get rid of risky assets amid global economic turmoil. Cryptocurrency billionaires have suffered the most.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's net worth has decreased from $13.7 billion to $2.2 billion. This was not only due to the fall in digital asset prices, but also due to the fall in Coinbase shares, the price of which fell by more than 80%.¬ The capital of the CEO of the FTX crypto exchange Sam Bankman-Fried has halved and now stands at $11.3 billion. The well-known founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency trading platform, the brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, have individually lost more than $2 billion, which is equivalent to almost 40% of their total fortune.

- American billionaire investor Bill Miller announced in January that half of his capital was invested in the largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. And now some of his coins were sold on a margin call.
In an interview with CNBC, the head of Miller Value Partners said he still remains bullish for the long term. According to him, for the first time he bought an asset in the range of $200-300 and during this time he went through at least three drops in BTC by more than 80%. Despite this, he still views bitcoin as an insurance policy against financial disaster.

- The US Department of State, the Treasury Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have issued a joint warning stating that North Korean IT professionals are trying to get jobs in cryptocurrency projects by posing as citizens of other countries. The authorities have noticed that coders from the DPRK pretend to be citizens of the United States very often.
The statement emphasizes that many of them receive income that contributes to the creation of weapons of mass destruction and the military buildup of North Korea in circumvention of the sanctions imposed on it. In addition, the document says that for the same purpose, some IT professionals from the DPRK have developed virtual currency exchangers or have created analytical tools and applications for cryptocurrency traders.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 23 - 27, 2022​

EUR/USD: Growth of the Pair as a Result of DXY Correction

The DXY dollar index hit a multi-year high of 105.05 on Friday, May 13 after a six-week rise. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago. However, a reversal followed, and the DXY was below the 103.00 horizon on May 19-20. According to a number of analysts, such a drop is more likely the result of a technical correction, and not a consequence of changes in fundamental factors. The latter still remain on the side of the American currency. However, there are already some alarming signals here, as the sharp tightening of the Fed's monetary policy increases concerns about the growth of the US economy and increases the likelihood of a recession.

But, once again, the fundamental factors are still on the side of the dollar. Thus, data on retail sales in the US released on May 17 showed an increase in consumer activity in April by 0.9%, which is higher than the forecast of 0.7%. Industrial production exceeded the forecast as well: it grew by 1.1% instead of the expected 0.5%.

Last week, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell once again confirmed his intention to raise the key rate by 0.5% at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings in June and July. Recall that the US regulator has already raised the rate twice this year. This, of course, led to an increase in costs for various types of loans not only for industry, but also for the population, including mortgage lending, consumer loans, interest on credit cards etc.

However, on Tuesday May 17, Jerome Powell stated unequivocally that the Fed would continue to tighten and back off from aggressive rate hikes only when it received "clear and compelling evidence" of a slowdown in inflation. And if the rate of inflation decline does not suit the Central Bank, it may not limit itself to a rate of 3.0%, but increase it to 4.0% within 12-15 months. That will give the dollar additional advantages over other currencies in the DXY basket, including the euro.

Unlike the US economy, investors are much more concerned about the prospects for the European economy. This concern is primarily due to the strong dependence of the European Union on Russian energy resources. On Monday, May 16, EU countries started negotiations on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine. It is known that we are talking, among other things, about the introduction of an embargo on the purchase of Russian oil and gas. It is not yet clear whether such an embargo will be total or partial, when it will be introduced and what exceptions there will be, but it is already clear that it will create serious problems not only for the Russian, but also for the European economy. And this cannot but cause concern for investors.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen added additional uncertainty to this complex situation. She stated that the G7 countries are discussing the idea of establishing the maximum possible duties on energy from Russia. On the one hand, it makes no sense to impose an embargo on their supplies in this case. But on the other hand, this will hit hard on the pockets of European consumers who want to avoid energy hunger.

The situation with inflation in the Eurozone remains unclear. According to data published on Wednesday May 18, it remains at a record level of 7.4%, that is, 3.7 times the ECB's target level of 2.0%. The head of the Central Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, said that in such a situation, members of the ECB Governing Council agree on the need for a “fairly quick” move away from negative interest rates. Recall that the deposit rate in the euro area is now minus 0.5%, and has been negative for 8 years, since 2014. However, "fairly quick" exit is a very vague wording, in contrast to the specific decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the dollar rate by another 1.0% in the next two months.

This divergence between the specifically hawkish monetary policy of the Fed and the vaguely dovish ECB suggests that the US currency will continue to strengthen its position. Although the opposite happened last week: the dollar lost about 150 points to the euro from May 16 to May 20 and the EUR/USD pair ended the trading session at 1.0557. However, according to some experts, what happened is a consequence of the general correction of the DXY index and fits into the medium-term downtrend of the pair.

At the time of writing, on the evening of May 20, the opinions of experts are divided as follows: 45% of analysts are sure that the EUR/USD pair will return to the movement to the south, the same number is waiting for the continuation of the correction to the north, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. There is a certain discrepancy in the readings of indicators on D1 caused by a correction. Among the trend indicators, 40% side with the reds, 60% side with the greens. The oscillators have a clearer picture: 70% are colored green, 20% red and 10% neutral gray. The nearest resistance is located in the zone 1.0600, if successful, they will try to break through the resistance 1.0640 and rise to the zone 1.0750-1.0800. For the bears, task number 1 is to break through the support in the 1.0500 area, then 1.0460-1.0480, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, there is only support from 20 years ago below.

As for the calendar for the coming week, it will be useful to pay attention to the publication of data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole on Tuesday, May 24. US orders for capital and durable goods will be released on Wednesday. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting of the Fed will be published on the same day, and preliminary US GDP indicators for the Q1 2022 will be known on Thursday, May 26.

GBP/USD: Inflation Continues to Rise

Of course, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair was dominated by what happened to the DXY dollar index last week. However, certain adjustments were also made by specific factors related to the economy of the United Kingdom.

The Bank of England published a forecast about two months ago that inflation should have peaked in April. The data published on Wednesday, May 18, confirmed this forecast, with the exception of one very big “but”. The regulator predicted that the peak would be reached at 7.2%, but it turned out to be 9.0%, which is the highest over the past 40 years. And in this case, to paraphrase the great English playwright William Shakespeare, it is time to exclaim: “Is this a peak or not a peak? That's the question!". Apparently, there is no talk of any slowdown in inflation yet, and it is precisely this that is the main “toothache” of the UK economy.

GBP/USD hit 1.2524 at a weekly high. Two pieces of news kept the pound from weakening. First, according to the UK Office for National Statistics, retail sales in the country unexpectedly rose by 1.4% in April, while the market expected a fall of 0.2%. And in addition, the British currency was supported by the chief economist of the Bank of England Hugh Pill, who said that the regulator has yet to continue tightening monetary policy, as bullish risks for inflation still prevail, and it is projected to rise to double digits in 2022.

As a result, the pair ended the five-day period at 1.2490 where it traded in late April - early May, and where it has already been in 2016, 2019, and 2020. Will it continue to fall? 20% of experts answered this question positively, 25% answered negatively. The majority (55%), not knowing how to react to the words of the chief economist of the Central Bank, shrugged their shoulders. As for the indicators on D1, then, as in the case of EUR/USD , their opinions are divided. Among the trend indicators, 50% point to the growth of the pair, exactly the same number points to the fall, among the oscillators the balance of forces is somewhat different: only 20% are looking south, 80% are looking north, although a quarter of them are already in the overbought zone. Supports are located at 1.2435, 1.2400, 1.2370, 1.2300, 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. In case of further correction to the north, the pair will have to overcome the resistance in the zone 1.2500-1.2525, then there are zones 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

UK economic developments in the coming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday May 23 and the release of the PMI Composite and Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Tuesday May 24.

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[Stan NordFX]

USD/JPY: Why the Yen Is Strengthening

According to officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "in general, the depreciation of the yen is helping Japan." The same could be repeatedly heard from the leaders of the Bank of Japan. The IMF also believes that the control over the yield curve applied by the Japanese regulator is quite effective, and the dynamics of the yen "are in line with medium-term fundamentals."

However, contrary to the statements of high officials, we have seen not weakening, but strengthening of the Japanese currency over the past two weeks. And on May 20, it is exactly where it was on April 20: at the level of 127.85, without having updated the maximum of May 09 at 131.34. According to a number of experts, the strengthening of the Japanese currency was due to the increased craving of investors for the most risk-free assets. However, this is not the only reason.

Inflation in the country continues to grow, which causes discontent among the population. The rise in consumer prices is recorded for the eighth month in a row. In April, they increased by 2.5% compared to the same month a year earlier, showing the highest growth rate since October 2014. As noted by Dow Jones, inflation has exceeded the 2.0% mark for the first time since September 2008, and this is without taking into account the effect of the consumption tax increase. It was 1.2% in March. Naturally, all this causes discontent among the citizens of the country, to which politicians are already actively reacting. But at some point, there should be a reaction from the Central Bank of Japan. Many investors, especially foreign ones, expect that, despite the regulator's assurances of its commitment to an ultra-soft monetary policy, it will still be forced to increase the interest rate. And, apparently, it is this expectation that provides the yen with additional support.

At the moment, 55% of analysts vote for the yen to continue to strengthen and USD/JPY to continue moving south, 40% vote for the resumption of the uptrend to the north, and 5% expect movement in the sideways. At the same time, supporters of technical analysis pay attention to the fact that a classic figure has formed on the chart: a "double top" (or "head - shoulders"). Among the indicators on D1, the alignment of forces is as follows. Oscillators have 80% red, 10% green, and 10% neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the parity is 50% to 50%. The nearest support is located at 127.50, followed by zones and levels at 127.00, 126.30-126.75, 126.00 and 125.00. The goal of the bulls is to rise above the horizon of 128.00, then overcome the resistances of 129.00, 129.60, 130.00, 130.50 and renew the high of May 09 at 131.34. The high of January 01, 2002, 135.19, is seen as the ultimate goal.

Of the upcoming week's events, one can pay attention to the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday, May 25, although it is unlikely to bring any surprises and at least somehow affect market sentiment. But what if something does happen? Markets remember 2016, when Haruhiko Kuroda first categorically denied the possibility of changing rates, and then suddenly decided to take such a step…

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[Stan NordFX]

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: End of the Digital Gold Rush?

The BTC/USD bulls have been desperately trying to hold the line in the $30,000 zone since May 11. The struggle took place in the $28,650-31,000 zone all last week. And even though the S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq stock indices rebounded on May 18, putting additional pressure on bitcoin, it continued to resist.

In general, decoupling bitcoin from stock indices, primarily from the S&P500, is the dream of many supporters of the first cryptocurrency. On the other hand, these same people dream that as many institutions as possible will come to the crypto market, and that bitcoin, along with stocks, will take its rightful place in their investment portfolios. But in order to become a full-fledged participant in financial markets, a cryptocurrency must obey the rules and laws established on it. And if large investors get rid of risky assets, one should not expect that, by dumping shares of Microsoft, Apple or Amazon, they will invest the dollars received not in treasuries, but in bitcoin or ethereum.

Another dream is for bitcoin to establish itself as a store of value on par with physical gold. However, the concept of "digital gold" at the moment is nothing more than a compliment towards the first cryptocurrency. Or a marketing ploy to increase its value in the eyes of small investors. But the importance of the precious metal for humanity has been confirmed for thousands of years, while the history of bitcoin is not even 15 years old. And its value lies only in its limited emission and thirst for profit.

Back in 2010, BTC was worth 5 cents, and its price reached $69,000 at its peak in November 2021. It is clear that the prospect of quickly and easily turning $100 dollars into $138,000,000 attracted a huge mass of people willing to get rich quickly. So what happened in the last 10-12 years can be called the “Digital Gold Rush”, by analogy with the Gold Rush in the USA in the second half of the 19th century. But then many, instead of getting rich, on the contrary, lost their money. The same can be observed now: bitcoin, having fallen to $26.579 on May 12, updated the low of the current year and returned to the values of December 2020, having lost about 60% of its value in just 6 months.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's net worth has decreased from $13.7 billion to $2.2 billion. This was not only due to the fall in digital asset prices, but also due to the fall in Coinbase shares, the price of which fell by more than 80%. The capital of the CEO of the FTX crypto exchange Sam Bankman-Fried has halved and now stands at $11.3 billion. The well-known founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency trading platform, the brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, have individually lost more than $2 billion, which is equivalent to almost 40% of their total fortune. Well, what means of "savings and hedging" can we talk about in such a situation?

Another advantage of bitcoin that its proponents like to talk about is its decentralized nature and the anonymity of its holders. However, it seems that this is just a fake. The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, explained that although cryptocurrency markets are considered decentralized, in reality, most of the activity takes place on a few large trading floors. Regulators and law enforcement officers are closely watching them. And the fact that the wallets belonging to the Russians were blocked after the imposition of sanctions against Russia, says a lot.

Finally, the fourth opportunity to raise the value of BTC is its widespread use as a means of payment. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, has recently expressed doubts about the ability of bitcoin to become a popular payment system. The top manager pointed to the lack of the ability to scale the network "to millions of transactions" per second due to the inefficiency and high environmental costs of his blockchain.

Returning from wishful thinking to reality, we must state that the total capitalization of the crypto market continues to fall. At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, May 20, it is at $1.248 trillion ($1.290 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 13 points. Moreover, it fell to 8 points on Tuesday, May 17, the lowest level since March 28, 2020. The BTC/USD pair is hardly kept in the "war zone", at the level of $29.325.

Gold advocate, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff believes that bitcoin has already lost an important support level near $33,000. And the cryptocurrency will have to fall to $8,000 to touch the next level. “The support line has been broken. There is a high probability of movement to the lower support line. The chart shows two patterns at once: a double top and a head-shoulders pattern. This is an ominous combination. We have a long way down,” this “gold bug” wrote in his blog.

Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki called the bitcoin crash “great news” and predicted a test of the $17,000 level. “As I said earlier, I expect bitcoin to fall to $20,000. Then we will wait for the bottom test, which may be $17,000. Once that happens, I'll go big. Crises are the best time to get rich,” he said.

But according to the crypto strategist nicknamed DonAlt, the question of where bitcoin will move after breaking the key support area of $30,000, has not yet been resolved. “Over the next 3 months, we will either see the capitulation that everyone is waiting for, or bitcoin will close the range and start moving up to $58,000,” the expert writes. In his opinion, the probability of going down is higher, and the next support is at $14,000. DonAlt notes that the current structure of the bitcoin market may hint that the bottom has already been reached. However, he fears the strong correlation of BTC with the stock market and the possibility of a further collapse of the S&P500 index.

The trader known as Rekt Capital agreed with the opinion that bitcoin is expected to fall further. The specialist believes that the coin needs to lose another 25% of its value before the expected local minimum.

Analyst nicknamed Pentoshi, on the other hand, expects a bitcoin rally soon, as the situation, in his opinion, is in favour of the bulls. According to Pentoshi, the bears are making serious efforts to lower the price of bitcoin, but they are not succeeding in achieving the desired result. “A lot of coins change hands with a lot of effort. But do the sellers receive appropriate remuneration? It doesn't look like it.

As an example, he looked at an inverted chart of bitcoin, which shows extremely high trading volume, coupled with a small exchange rate movement. As Pentoshi believes, the failure of the bears to depreciate BTC despite strong selling pressure suggests that the momentum is about to turn in favor of the bulls.

American billionaire investor Bill Miller also looks optimistic. According to him, he survived at least three bitcoin drops by more than 80%. And despite the fact that some of his coins have been currently sold on a margin call, he remains bullish in the long term.

As follows from the above, there is no consensus among influencers and experts at the moment. What to do in such a situation? Of course, you can sit and wait with your hands down. Or you can, for example, engage in active trading. Moreover, trading on the CFD principle, you can earn both on the growth and fall of the crypto market. Moreover, you do not need to have a real cryptocurrency for this: in the NordFX brokerage company, in order to open a transaction of 1 bitcoin, you will only need $150, and $15 for a transaction of 1 ethereum. Why is this not a crypto life hack?


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

World Confederation of Businesses Presents NordFX with Business Excellence Award for the Second Time

For the second time, NordFX has received the BIZZ AWARDS, an award that the World Confederation of Businesses annually awards to companies that have achieved outstanding business success.

The World Confederation of Businesses (WORLDCOB) has been playing a leading role as an international business organization for over 15 years, promoting business development in over 130 countries and encouraging the growth of companies and entrepreneurs through THE BIZZ AWARDS. NordFX received its first such award in 2020, and now there is a new success.

“On behalf of the World Confederation of Businesses,” the organization's president, Jesus Moran, wrote in their letter, “we extend our most sincere congratulations to you and your team NORDFX, for being selected as a winner of of this important business excellence award.

Your company has been selected for consistently exceeding the evaluation criteria noted in our Business Excellence Questionnaires: Business Leadership, Quality of Products and Services, Management Systems, Innovation and Creativity, Corporate Social Responsibility, and Results Achieved. For this reason, we would like to extend our congratulations once more in recognition of this outstanding achievement. WORLDCOB wishes you to continue the excellent work your team is doing."


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/