Daily market analysis by NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 07 - 11, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole is still the most discussed among investors and experts. The Fed decided to take the most serious step in monetary policy starting in 2012, announcing its plans to aim for an “average inflation rate of 2%.” This means that the regulator will not tighten its monetary policy even if the inflation rate exceeds these very two percent.
With his speech, Powell dealt another blow to the dollar, which has surrendered one position after another since March 20. The printing press launched by the Federal Reserve during the pandemic and the decrease in interest rates led to the fact that, starting from 1.0635, the pair EUR/USD rose above 1.2000 last week. During this period, the euro appreciated against the US currency by 13%, which is bad enough for the European economy.
Back in 2015-16, the then head of the ECB Mario Draghi introduced a policy of negative interest rates. This made it possible to lower the quotes of the single European currency to 1.0500, that is, almost to parity with the dollar. The weak euro contributed to higher inflation and economic growth in the EU, bolstered the eurozone's export potential, making its goods cheaper for the overseas consumer. However, in 2018, the euro went up again, rising to about 1.2000. Then, with great difficulty, it was lowered down again. And now we see 1.2000 again.
It is clear that in order to reverse the trend southward, the European regulator will have to resort to a very aggressive monetary policy. The importance of the exchange rate for the health of the Eurozone was announced this week by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. His remark allowed the dollar to strengthen a bit. However, we can expect the main events next week on Thursday, September 10, when the next meeting of the European Central Bank will take place. More on this in the second part of this article.
And now about the forecast given by experts for the past week. 60% of them felt that the pair EUR/USD would hold in the price range of 1.1700-1.1910. The remaining 40% voted for the breakdown of the upper border of the channel and the growth of the pair to the symbolic level of 1.2000. If you look at the chart, it becomes clear that both of them were right: the pair really reached the 1.2000 height. However, it could not gain a foothold there and quickly dropped to the 1.1780 horizon. The last chord of the five-day period was set at 1.1840. That is, the pair has been in a smoothly ascending channel with a width of about 200 points for the fifth week already, which allows us to say that the final trend reversal in favor of the dollar has not yet occurred;

- GBP/USD. In general, the weekly chart of this pair follows the EUR/USD chart. The difference is that if the European currency eventually returned to the central part of the ascending medium-term channel, the pound did not do this, and ended the week near its upper border - at around 1.3275. However, the bulls did not manage to update the 2019 high of 1.3515. Their upward spurt was stopped at 1.3482;

- USD/JPY. Markets are still ruled by risk sentiment rather than macroeconomic indicators. Many investors expected that the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, September 04, could affect the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair, however, nothing extraordinary happened: first, a slight increase by 30 points, and then a return to its original positions.
The forecast given by the majority of analysts (65%) spoke of the strengthening of the dollar and that the pair would not leave the corridor of 105.10-107.00. This is exactly what happened. Starting from Monday, the dollar rushed upward, reaching a height of 106.55 on Thursday and showing an increase of 120 points. As for the end of the trading session, the pair completed it at the level of 106.22;

- cryptocurrencies. One of the richest people on the planet, Warren Buffett, has invested $6 billion dollars in shares of Japanese companies. Commenting on this move, renowned crypto enthusiast and TV presenter Max Kaiser said that Buffett is fleeing the dollar in this way, the depreciation of which will lead to a sharp rise in quotations of alternative assets such as gold and bitcoin.
Perhaps there is some logic in Kaiser's statement, however, gold, on the contrary, has fallen in price by 7%, and Bitcoin has not been able to overcome the $ 12,000 milestone over the past month, starting from August 7.
Our analysts predicted that the BTC/USD pair would move along Pivot Point $11,000 with one-off emissions up to $9,500 south and up to $12,800 north. It is this scenario that starts to come true. At the beginning of the week, the bulls went on another assault, but could hardly get to the height of $12,050. Miners, who, in anticipation of further growth, kept a record amount of cryptocurrency in their wallets, worth more than $ 20 billion (1.82 million BTC), began to sell it. The outflow of bitcoins from their wallets, according to CryptoQuant, amounted to over 1,500 BTC during the day from Wednesday to Thursday. Of course, this is not so much, but, as it turned out, it is quite enough for the bears to completely take over the market. As a result, the main cryptocurrency lost almost 17% in price, reaching $ 10,000, on Friday September 04. The dollar, growing contrary to Max Kaiser's forecasts, affected the collapse as well.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased from $ 360 billion to $ 334 billion in seven days. Moreover, it reached $ 393 billion at its peak on August 2, that is, the drop was 15% in just two days. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped from 74 points to 40, and just like the RSI, it came out of the overbought zone.
The dominance of the main cryptocurrency in the market continues to decrease. If at the beginning of the year its capitalization was about 70%, now it has dropped to 58%. But the share of ethereum, on the contrary, is constantly growing, rising from 7.29% to 12.90%. ETH miners earned a record $17 million on September 01 due to the high demand for the blockchain of this project. Recall that the creator of ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, announced his blockchain as the basis for the operation of other cryptoservices this year, which aroused increased interest in this altcoin. However, returning to the events of the end of the last week, it should be noted that if the pair BTC/USD lost “only” 17%, the fall of ETH/USD at its peak exceeded 27%.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As noted above, the ECB will need to start almost a war with the Fed in the area of monetary and fiscal policy in order to turn the pair down. Its outcome will depend on how far the EU and the US are prepared to go in their combat operations.
The forthcoming meeting of the ECB on Thursday, September 10, and the subsequent press conference of its head Christine Lagarde may give the market an idea of what potential the European regulator is ready to use in this war. Analysts at Bloomberg believe that the ECB could increase the program of emergency asset purchases by €350 billion by the end of 2020, and the volumes of other programs - by another €220 billion. Such expansion of European quantitative easing (QE), according to experts, is unlikely to benefit the banking system of the Old World (full of unclaimed money as is), but will be able to weaken the euro. The lower the cost of interbank borrowing goes, the greater the pressure on the common European currency will be.
However, it is not at all certain that the victory in this currency war will be on the side of Europe. According to a number of Reuters analysts, if the Fed continues to keep the interest rate close to zero, and the recovery of the Eurozone economy outstrips the recovery of the US economy, the EUR/USD rate may well rise to 1.2100.
In the meantime, the balance of power in the discussion of experts is the following: 50% of them expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support in the 1.1700 zone and go down at least another 100 points below. Another 30% of analysts believe it will move in the 1.1700-1.2010 trading range. And finally, the remaining 20%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, hope to see the pair storm the 1.2100 high by mid-September;

- GBP/USD. Just like the neighbors to the west and east - the US and the EU - one of the determining factors for the UK economy is overcoming the consequences of the COVID-19 crisis, and the measures that are being taken for this. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, who took office only this year, plans to roll back a series of stimulus measures as early as September, such as subsidies to restaurants. However, most likely, it will not have any strong influence on the British currency quotes. Moreover, the government intends to stick to plans for other QE programs for now.
The curtailment of the program for retaining employees on unpaid leave on October 31 may be much more significant for the market. Another important event is the EU Brexit Summit. But it will also take place only in mid-October, and a lot can change until then.
The majority of experts (60%) believe that the pound is already exhausted in its drive to the north, and the pair is waiting for a turn to the south. And, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of bears increases to 70%. The closest strong support is in the 1.3000 zone.
There is a red-gray-green multicolor among the technical indicators on H4, as in the case of EUR/USD. However, there is a noticeable advantage of the “green” ones on D1: there are 55% of those among oscillators and 80% among trend indicators.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows first the lateral movement of the pair in the corridor 1.3065-1.3385, then its drop to the zone 1.2900 and return to the level 1.3275. All of this can happen within the next 14 days. Further targets for the pair are 1.3480 and the 2019 high of 1.3515;

- USD/JPY. If you look at the chart, you can see that, starting from the last ten days of February, the pair has been gradually consolidating around 106.00. Experts do not see any serious reasons for its going beyond the trading range of 105.10-107.00 at the moment. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, 65% of analysts are inclined to favor the bears. And if their prediction turns out to be correct, the pair could drop to the July 31 low of 104.18. In case of breakdown of the upper border of the channel, the nearest resistance will be the level of 107.50, the next one - 108.15;

- cryptocurrencies. The consequences of the activities of the US Federal Reserve System were so serious that even the leaders of such payment giants as Visa started talking about Bitcoin. At the end of August, after the statement of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, about the plans of his department, the DXY dollar index fell to a critically low level of 92.14. In response, Visa's Public Policy Director Andy Yee tweeted: “Jerome Powell's speech today will go down in history books. This is the first time I've seen such a small group steal so much from so many people. Save yourself with bitcoin."
However, it looks like the market is not yet ready to follow Mr. Yee's call. Most experts (60%) are inclined to believe that bitcoin may roll back to values below $10,000 in the near future. And, first of all, this will be associated with the restoration of investor interest in the dollar.
If bitcoin breaks through the $10,000 barrier, the pullback could drag on for months, according to analysts at financial company Crypterium. As a rule, the main coin feels uncertain in early autumn, but the drawdown gives a chance to start a new large-scale rally closer to the New Year.
The main forecast for the next week remains almost the same, with amendments of 500 points downwards: the BTC/USD pair will move along Pivot Point $10,500 with one-off emissions up to $9,000 south and up to $12,300 north.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The head of investment companies 10T Holdings and Gold Bullion International Dan Tapiero said that Bitcoin and gold can safely survive the next collapse of the stock market.
“I think that in the near future, as it often happened, the situation will turn around, which will lead to critical consequences for the stock market,” the expert said. "In the short term, the rise in the S&P 500 may seem like a positive signal, but I do not think the stock markets will resist the pressure from outside."
Tapiero also stressed that before the US presidential elections, the situation is changing in almost all financial sectors. If Donald Trump is unable to stay for a second term, the companies under his control will lose share value. And this will affect the quotes of the largest indices. “The market for such investments will not die, but it will be more difficult to get investors there,” he explained.
As for the possible appearance of negative interest rates in the US, according to Tapiero, they will make the dollar much weaker and become a "mega-bull" incentive for bitcoin.

- The Just Eat network, 15,000 food delivery outlets across France, started accepting bitcoins. The corresponding option appeared in the payment options for the order. Just Eat does not charge fees for payments in cryptocurrency but has warned customers that for this form of payment, you need to create a digital wallet by downloading "special software or application." The payment provider is BitPay, a cryptocurrency processing service.
It was reported earlier that more than 25,000 French retailers plan to accept the main cryptocurrency for payment.

- One of the three largest banks in Chile - BancoEstado was forced to shut down its branches after a ransomware attack. “Our branches are closed today and will not work in the coming days,” the bank announced on Twitter on September 7th. At the same time, the bank's management assured the clients that their funds were safe. According to a source close to the investigation, the ransomware REvil (Sodinokibi) infiltrated the internal network of this financial institution after one of the employees opened an infected document in the Office program. The presence of the virus was detected on Saturday, September 05, when bank employees were unable to access their work files. BancoEstado estimates the damage from the attack as significant - the ransomware affected most of the internal servers and work computers of employees. The bank's website, banking portal, mobile applications and ATMs remained intact.
Recall that earlier the developers of the Sodinokibi virus refused to receive the ransom in bitcoins, preferring the Monero cryptocurrency due to its increased anonymity.

- Еhe BTC rate has significantly decreased over the past week and dropped below $10,000 several times. However, this did not stop the number of transactions and hashrate from setting new highs. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, on September 8, the Bitcoin hash rate was 156 Eh/s - this is a new all-time high. The previous hashrate record was recorded on 11 May, before the third halving. Then it reached 152 Eh/s, but soon dropped to 90 Eh/s. In addition, there was a noticeable increase in the average daily transaction volume, which reached 130,110 BTC, setting an annual high.
In July, Chainalysis reported that miners had significantly reduced sales of mined BTC. Perhaps the current decline in the rate of this cryptocurrency is due to the fact that miners put on sale the previously mined coins in order to fix profits or cover the need for fiat.

- The son of the president of brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, Spencer, continues to buy bitcoins, contrary to his father's opinion. Recall that the gold fan Peter Schiff is in the camp of ardent opponents of the largest digital currency. He periodically posts on Twitter criticizing BTC, calling it a pyramid scheme. On the other hand, Schiff Jr. is actively buying up bitcoins. His father commented on his son's behaviour: “Against my advice, he just bought even more bitcoins.” "Whose advice are you going to follow: a 57-year-old seasoned investor and business owner who has been investing professionally for over 30 years, or an 18-year-old college freshman who doesn't even have a job?" Peter Schiff asks his readers.

- The creator of the popular stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, analyst PlanB predicts that Bitcoin will not only reach $288,000 but will also show a further threefold growth. This will result in it costing about $864,000 by the end of 2024. Notably, PlanB is insanely optimistic about his model, believing that the price of BTC is still moving in line with his forecasts. Understanding the reaction of crypto community participants, he added that all this is possible since bitcoin has done something similar in previous stages.

- Employees of the Blockchain Research Lab released an article in which they talked about an increasingly popular method of money laundering through cryptocurrency. The mechanism was called “exclusive mining”. According to the researchers, attackers are asking miners to confirm transactions made through private channels in exchange for a reward. Such a transaction remains unaccounted for by many analytical systems, as it looks like a reward from mining cryptocurrency. “Disguising money transfers as transaction costs allows to evade taxes or launder money,” the authors of the article say, “and it is very difficult to detect cases of such “exclusive mining” and to prove criminal intent.”

- The new parameter of estimating investor sentiment presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant indicates that bitcoin is “experiencing strong demand from buyers” at $10,000.
In early September, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju introduced a new tool to track BTC investor sentiment, which he called Potential BUY/SELL Pressure. Its principle of operation is to calculate the ratio of exchange-traded deposits of bitcoin to deposits of stablecoins. The estimation is based on the hypothesis that the resulting number is inversely proportional to the appetites of traders. This parameter is currently biased towards the bullish side. “Bitcoin is still under strong pressure from buyers. Exchanges are holding more stablecoins and fewer bitcoins than at the beginning of this year,” wrote Ki Yang Joo, and summed up: “ I think a bullish trend in bitcoin is still possible. ”

- According to the information of the analytical platform Santiment, in three days after the Ethereum price collapse by 30%, 68 new "whales" appeared, which hold from 1,000 to 10,000 ETH ($350,000 - $3,500,000) and added millions of dollars to the coin's capitalization. Ethereum still remains the second largest cryptocurrency (12.9% of the market) and number 1 among altcoins by market capitalization — about $40 billion.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 14 - 18, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Following the ECB meeting on September 11, the Euro tried to fly up and even reached 1.1920, but literally an hour later the market decided that all this was not so important, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair quickly returned to their original positions. As a result, as one third of the experts expected, the pair could not break out of the 1.1700-1.2010 channel, along which it has been moving for seven weeks. Moreover, its trading range narrowed to 1.1750-1.1920, returning to the values of the last decade of August.
So, what actually happened?
On the one hand, the tone of the European regulator's statement turned out to be even more hawkish than investors had expected. The ECB has taken a very optimistic position on the prospects for the eurozone economy. During a press conference, its head, Christine Lagarde, said that macro statistics indicate a rapid recovery in domestic demand and activity in the manufacturing sector. However, she urged not to overreact to the growth of the euro over the past five months. According to her, the regulator focuses not on the exchange rate of the European currency itself but monitors its impact on inflation.
After such statements, the rate went up and even rose above the 1.1900 horizon. However, investors were quick to remember the sharp reversal of the US stock market, the dollar strengthening against this background and the day by day increasing probability of a "hard" Brexit , from which the economy of not only the UK, but also the EU could suffer seriously. As a result, a sharp reversal followed, quotes fell down, and the pair ended the week in the same place where it began, at 1.1840;

- GBP/USD. The beneficiaries this week were traders who opened short positions on this pair. As expected by most analysts, the pound continued its decline, losing 480 points over the week and ending the five-day period at 1.2797.
The reason for the massive sale of the pound was the latest move of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who introduced a bill on the internal market to Parliament. If approved, this document could derail the already agreed agreements on the country's withdrawal from the EU. In response to this move, Brussels issued an ultimatum to the British side demanding that the plans to revise the Agreement be abandoned by the end of September. But London is standing its ground, and there is no way out of this stalemate, which makes the scenario of a "hard" Brexit quite likely.
The United States also joined the skirmish. Speaker of the House of Representatives of Congress Nancy Pelosi said that America would not support a trade deal with Britain if it violated the EU Withdrawal Agreement.
Added to all this is the slow pace of the British economy's recovery and the not-so-encouraging situation with the coronavirus pandemic. The combination of all these factors puts a lot of pressure on the pound, not booming anything good for it in the near future;

- USD/JPY. Since the last ten days of February this year, the pair has been gradually consolidating around 106.00. And, as the experts expected, it was never able to leave the channel 105.10-107.00. Against the backdrop of falling stock markets, both currencies of this pair continued to act in tandem as protective assets, which ensured their synchronization and further narrowing of the trading range to 60 points within 105.80-106.40. The final chord of the five-day was set at 196.10;

- cryptocurrencies. After another unsuccessful attempt to gain a foothold above $12,000 and the subsequent collapse on September 02-04, Bitcoin rested on the psychologically important support in the $10,000 zone. The BTC/USD pair has been trading in an extremely narrow range of $10,000-10,350 over the past week. Both bears and bulls ran out of strength: the former have already fixed short-term profits, and the latter have already opened long positions with a 20% discount from the levels of the end of August. Of course, both sides made weak attempts to turn things around in their favour, increasing volatility to $9,850-10,500, however they all ended in nothing. On Friday evening, September 11, when this review was written, the main cryptocurrency was trading in the $10,300 zone. Of course, one can expect sharp price increases on weekends, especially on the night from Sunday to Monday. However, as practice shows, such trends are only short-term.
It should be noted that the movement of bitcoin in a very narrow channel did not prevent the number of transactions and hash rate from setting new highs. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, on September 8, the Bitcoin hash rate was 156 Eh/s - this is a new all-time high. The previous hashrate record was recorded on 11 May, before the third halving. It reached 152 EH/s then, but it fell soon to 90 EH/s.
The number of monthly transactions exceeded 600 thousand. In addition, there was also a marked increase in average daily transaction volume, which reached 130.110 BTC, setting an annual high. According to Chainalysis, small and medium-sized transfers, up to $10,000 in size, have grown to more than $300 million.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained largely unchanged and is now at 41 points (40 weeks ago). The total capitalization of the crypto market remains at about the same level, $334 billion.
Recall that at the minimum of this year, March 16, it amounted to only $ 134 billion. That is, over the last 6 months, the increase has been 150%. At the same time, bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its dominance index has fallen from 63.75% to 57.45% over the same period. Ethereum, on the other hand, is doing much better, showing a rise from 10.40% to 12.04%.
Note that high transaction fees make this leading altcoin virtually inaccessible to smaller retail players. But it attracts a lot of attention from the "whales". So, according to the information of the analytical platform Santiment, only three days after the collapse of the price of ethereum by 30% there were 68 new large investors holding from 1000 to 10000 ETH ($350,000 - $3,500,000) and added millions of dollars to the coin's capitalization. Thus, ethereum still remains the second largest cryptocurrency and number 1 among altcoins by market capitalization, about $40 billion.

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[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Let us start with the fact that neither trend indicators nor oscillators can give any intelligible signals after seven weeks of sideways movement in the 1.1700-1.2010 channel and the finish in its center at 1.1840. The experts' votes are also equally divided. And even graphic analysis draws the fluctuations of the pair in this range until the end of September. However, judging by the chart, the bears should gain the upper hand finally, and the beginning of October will be marked by a strengthening dollar and a decline in EUR/USD quotes to 1.1600.
Due to the fall in demand for risky assets and fears of a "hard" Brexit, many analysts expect that the Euro will strengthen its position against the British pound, retreat against the Japanese yen and will fight the dollar with varying success, without stable trends.
Contrary to Christine Lagarde's statements, Reuters sources claim that the ECB is not at all indifferent to the exchange rate, although the bank does not want to start a war with the US Federal Reserve because of it. In their opinion, the rate of 1.2000 is close to equilibrium and suits both sides at the moment. At the same time, Citigroup analysts believe that if the EUR/USD quotes grow by another 5%, the ECB will nevertheless begin to take steps to weaken the euro. Moreover, according to Reuters, the southern countries of the Eurozone are already quite nervous about the strengthening of their currency.
In the meantime, leading indicators from Bloomberg indicate further growth in EUR/USD. The reason lies in the faster recovery of the Old-World economy compared to the United States. It goes fastest in Germany and Norway, followed by France, Italy, and Spain. But the United States and Great Britain are among the outsiders.
Certain adjustments to the expectations of experts may be made by the meeting of the US Fed and the subsequent press conference of its management on Wednesday 16 September. And there is a very small likelihood that the regulator will reduce the current interest rate by 0.25%. But if this suddenly happens, the balance of power and the market situation will change in the most radical way;

- GBP/USD. The reasons why the pound can continue its flight south were described in the first part of our review. The British currency will be able to stop the fall, turn around and start moving upwards if any warming is outlined in the current tense relations between London and Brussels. The situation is actually very serious, as the future of the UK depends on it. And the EU economy, in the case of a "hard" Brexit, will also receive a tangible blow.
At the moment, most experts (60%) expect the pair to fall further. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 80% on D1, as well as 85% of oscillators on both time frames. As for 40% of the bulls' supporters, graphical analysis on D1, the remaining trend indicators and 15% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is oversold, side with them. This may indicate, if not a trend reversal, at least an upcoming correction.
It should be noted that with the transition from weekly to monthly forecasts, the number of analysts who vote for the pair's reversal to the north increases from 40% to 70% (hopes for a resolution of the conflict with the EU affect).
Support levels are 1.2650, 1.2465 and 1.2250, resistance is 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3185, 1.3265. The target is the September 01 high,1.3480.
As for the important economic events, and they will fill almost the entire next week, Monday, September 14 should be noted, when Parliament will vote on the Brexit terms and hear the inflation report. UK labour market data will appear on Tuesday September 15, followed by the consumer market data on September 16. Increased volatility should be expected on Thursday, September 17, as the Bank of England meeting will be held on this day, at which issues on the interest rate and the volume of asset purchases under the QE program will be resolved;

- USD/JPY. Also, on September 17, a meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place, which with a high degree of probability will leave the interest rate unchanged. In terms of the speed of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan is among the leaders. So, there is no need for the regulator to make sharp movements, and, most likely, this event will pass without surprises and will not have any impact on the market.
It is impossible to predict any movement of the pair based on technical analysis. With the narrowing of the maximum weekly volatility to 60 points and the ongoing consolidation of the pair around 106.00, no recommendations can be expected from the indicators.
But the majority of experts (60%) expect the Japanese currency to strengthen and the pair to drop to the level of 105.10, and then, possibly, 100 points lower. The remaining 40% are looking at 107.00. However, everything that will happen to the USD/JPY pair in the near future, including the direction of trends and volatility, depends not so much on the yen as on the dollar and on what happens at a distance of 11.000 km from Tokyo - in New York and Washington;

- cryptocurrencies. As for the “best” forecasts last week, the first place is undoubtedly taken by the creator of the popular stock to flow ratio model (S2F) under the nickname PlanB. According to his calculations, bitcoin will not only reach $288 thousand, but will also show a further threefold growth. This will lead, the analyst says, to the fact that 1 BTC will be worth about $ 864,000 by the end of 2024. Understanding the reaction of crypto community participants to such astronomical numbers, PlanB adds that all this is possible, as bitcoin has already done something similar in previous stages.
If you rewind the time machine and travel back from 2024 to November 2020, you can see a serious blow to the stock market that the US presidential election can inflict. This is exactly what the head of investment companies 10T Holdings and Gold Bullion International Dan Tapiero thinks. “If Donald Trump can't stay on for a second term,” he explains his point, “the companies under his control will lose stock value. And this will affect the quotes of the largest indices. As for gold and bitcoin, they will be able to calmly weather the stock market crash. And if at that moment the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to negative values, the dollar will weaken sharply and this, according to Dan Tapiero, will become a "mega-bull" incentive for bitcoin.
And now about the forecast for the second half of September. The new indicator of BTC investor sentiment, presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant, shows that bitcoin “is experiencing strong demand from buyers» at $10,000. This tool is called “Potential BUY/SELL Pressure”. Its principle of operation is to calculate the ratio of exchange-traded deposits of bitcoin to deposits of stablecoins, and it is based on the hypothesis that the resulting number is inversely proportional to the appetites of traders.
This parameter is currently biased towards the bullish side. Exchanges are holding more stablecoins and fewer bitcoins than at the beginning of this year,” wrote Ki Yang Joo, and summed up: “I think a bullish trend in bitcoin is still possible.”
60% of experts agree with the possibility of a moderate growth of the BTC/USD pair to the $10,700-11,200 zone. The remaining 40% see it in the range of $ 9,500-10,350 in the near future.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

 

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Bitcoin transactions grew by over 75% in August, according to The Block news agency. This fact may indicate a return to the industry of small miners who dropped out due to halving in May. Now they have the opportunity to start earning again thanks to the growth in the value of the main coin. Their revenues, compared to July, increased by 23% in August, while the revenues of Ethereum miners increased by 98% over the month, The Block notes.
Not only the number of transactions, but their volume has increased markedly. "According to more or less reliable data, the volume of transactions amounted to more than $191 billion. In July, the same figure was at the level of $85 billion. Some exchanges could not cope with the growth of traffic for several days, which is why they were temporarily shut down for technical work," The Block said in a statement.
The dominant market share remains with the Binance trading platform. It accounts for approximately 65 percent of the total cryptocurrency trading volume. It is followed by Coinbase, which has about 10 percent. Kraken and LMAX Digital have 4.8 percent, respectively. The lowest increase in activity was demonstrated by the Bitstamp platform, which now accounts for about 2.8 percent of transactions.

- DBS Bank specialists from Singapore are confident that the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of cryptocurrencies by the financial community. The bank's quarterly report shows an increase in the number of institutional investors in digital assets. According to the chief economist of DBS Bank Taimur Baig, the demand for this type of assets can already be clearly divided into two separate phases - before and after the pandemic. Now cryptocurrencies have started to be used as an asset-shelter, because people are concerned about the state of the dollar, and the question is whether to keep their funds in the fiat, Baig commented on the report of the bank.

- Aviatrade, an aircraft sales company, offered gulfstream G650ER customers the opportunity to pay in cryptocurrency. According to Aviatrade, the rapid adoption of cryptocurrencies is evident, especially in developing countries with high inflation. As a result, more and more wealthy people are turning to decentralized banking in order to hedge financial risks and to make high-value purchases. And now bitcoin millionaires can purchase a super-fast private jet with cryptocurrency.
The G650ER aircraft was created six years ago by the American company Gulfstream. Its flight range is 7,500 nautical miles, which facilitates frequent intercontinental flights. In May 2020, the G650ER was voted the best private jet for international flights after the Global 6000 and Boeing VIP Dreamliner. About 400 liners have been sold so far, and Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are among the buyers.

- The board of directors of analytics software provider MicroStrategy, which previously invested $250 million in bitcoin, has adopted a new asset management policy. The published document confirms the company's readiness to further increase its investments in the first cryptocurrency, using it as the main reserve asset on an ongoing basis. Thus, CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Sailor called the investment in bitcoin a reliable alternative to the devalued US dollar and said that on September 14, the company additionally acquired 16,796 BTC for $175 million, bringing the total volume of this asset to $425 million.
MicroStrategy thus became the first public company listed on Nasdaq to invest some of the capital in cryptocurrency.

- According to Dan Tapiero, co-founder of the investment company DTAP Capital, the market has developed conditions for long-term strengthening of bitcoin. There are several macroeconomic factors that will drive increased demand for cryptocurrency. The main culprit is the US Fed, which is pouring money into the economy, thereby devaluing it.
“We are on the verge of economic turmoil; the situation will be similar to the crisis of the late 1980s. The value of American assets will fall by about half, which will cause a massive transition of capital from state securities to gold and bitcoin,” Tapiero said, stressing that during the last two and a half years we have seen consolidation of BTC and that now, most likely, we are waiting for an explosive growth in the value of the largest cryptocurrency. Investors just need to be patient.

- The Nigeria Securities and Exchange Commission ruled that all crypto assets will now be treated as securities. According to the regulator, cryptocurrencies are alternative investment opportunities that fall under the same requirements as stock exchanges and their transactions. Curiously, if an issuer wants to avoid such classification of their instruments, they must file a relevant request and prove that their crypto asset is not a security and therefore does not fall under the jurisdiction of the department. However, the Commission's notification did not explain how the evidence process would look in practice.

- Former hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's “Mad Money” show Jim Cramer, previously sceptical of Bitcoin, has now called it a good choice for investment. Previously, Kramer preferred investments in gold, stocks, and other assets, and considered bitcoin an "incomprehensible" asset, the rate of which could quickly collapse to zero. However, as the US government was issuing huge amounts of money to ease the economic crisis, he changed his mind.
During a conversation with renowned bitcoin enthusiast Anthony Pompliano, Kramer stated that if he does not invest in the first cryptocurrency, his children simply will not understand this step in the future. "These $3 trillion that the U.S. has printed have completely changed my mind," he said. "We will not be able to buy back our national debt. We just cannot. So, what can you do? Either move to another country, or hedge. I plan to buy bitcoin in stages and invest for at least 10 years. That is, my children won't be able to sell these coins until 2030.”

- Cryptanalyst firm Weiss Crypto Ratings decided to reassure bitcoin users who fear the downtrend that took over the market in the early days of September. According to their experts, the bearish trend will quickly subside, and in general it is not strong enough to drive the coin value below the support of $10,000 in the near future. As for Ethereum, Weiss Crypto Ratings considers the level of $ 350 to be a powerful support for this altcoin.

- According to CoinDesk, users of the Deribit crypto derivatives exchange are actively betting on bitcoin options, hoping that the price will rise to $32-36 thousand by the end of the year. These options were the most popular on this platform last Sunday. According to the company, new December contracts with a settlement price of $36,000 are in the lead in terms of the volume of transactions, 752 of which were counted. They are followed by 462 contracts with a strike price of $32,000. December contracts, priced at $28,000, attracted relatively small volumes.
Such trading results are difficult to explain, given that, in general, market participants estimate the chance of Bitcoin's rise to at least $20,000 by the end of December as very low. The estimated probability of exceeding $20,000 is 5%, and $28,000 is only 2%.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 21 - 25, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. According to Reuters sources, the rate close to 1.2000 currently suits both sides, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Looking at the chart, one could clarify: not 1.2000, but 1.1850. After all, it is along this horizon the pair has been moving for seven weeks. But, in fact, the difference of 150 points has no fundamental significance here.
It would seem that the "dovish" rhetoric that sounded at the end of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 16, should have reduced the attractiveness of the American currency. Moreover, the regulator announced its readiness to keep low interest rates until 2023. However, nothing of the kind happened. The reason is that no less “dovish” statements are constantly being heard from the ECB side.
On the contrary, the dollar tried to go up against the background of the fall in the stock market, but this attempt failed as well. Investors believe in the prospects of the euro and begin to actively open long positions as soon as the pair approaches the lower border of the 1.5-month channel 1.1700-1.2010. As a result, the pair returned to its equilibrium state by the end of the week and finished at 1.1845;

- GBP/USD. The pound has been growing throughout the past week. And this despite the problems with the UK labor market, the worsening situation with COVID-19 and the still unsettled situation with Brexit. The initial vote in Parliament on the scandalous bill, the adoption of which will sharply increase the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit, did not add clarity to the order of parting with the EU.
Taking into account the above, the Bank of England at its meeting on September 17 did not begin to adjust the monetary policy, but decided, having taken a wait and see attitude, to leave everything as it is for the time being.
And despite all this, the pound managed to win back from the dollar more than 200 points and reach the iconic level of 1.3000 by midweek. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.2921;

- USD/JPY. Like other regulators, the Bank of Japan decided to leave the interest rate unchanged. This decision was not a surprise to anyone. Markets associate much higher expectations with the departure of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Although his successor, Yushihide Suga, has vowed to continue his policy, certain changes will not take long.
Most experts last week voted in favour of the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the pair decrease to the level of 105.10 and then 100 points lower. And this prediction turned out to be 100% correct: the pair found the local bottom at 104.25, and placed the final chord in the 104.55 zone;

- cryptocurrencies. Last week, we talked about a new indicator for assessing BTC investor sentiment, which was presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant. At the $10,000 level, bitcoin is "experiencing strong demand from buyers," according to the instrument. The majority (60%) of experts agreed with the possibility of a rebound of the BTC/USD pair from this support and its moderate growth to the $10,700-11,200 zone, and they were right: having fixed the weekly low at $10,200, the pair reached a strong medium-term level of $11,100 by midweek, around which it has been revolving for eight weeks.
The increase in bitcoin transactions was more than 75% in August, according to The Block news agency. This fact may indicate a return to the industry of small miners who dropped out due to halving in May. Now they have the opportunity to start earning again thanks to the growth in the value of the main coin. And this is a good factor for the main cryptocurrency. Moreover, not only the number of transactions increased significantly, but their volume, which amounted to more than $191 billion. In July, the same figure was around $85 billion.
On the other hand, according to Glassnode analysis, almost 10% of the reward to miners is spent on transactions to place BTC coins on centralized exchanges, which is why this cryptocurrency is facing strong pressure from sellers when trying to rise above $11,100.
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has risen slightly and is almost in the middle of the scale at 49 (41 weeks ago). The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also grown in seven days, rising from $334 billion to $355 billion.
And one more interesting observation of The Block, now about Ethereum. While in August, compared to July, the income of bitcoin manners increased by 23%, the income of the miners of ethereum almost doubled - by 98%. According to some analysts, this may be due to the growing interest in this altcoin from large investors.

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[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As for the technical analysis, it is clear that after a month and a half of the pair's movement in the 1700-1.2010 corridor and the finish at its center at 1.1845, neither trend indicators nor oscillators can give any intelligible signals. Graphical analysis on D1 also draws the continuation of the sideways trend. However, given the fact that the pair finished the last week near the 1.1900 resistance and that 15% of oscillators indicate it is overbought, we can expect its correction to the south. Most experts agree with this (75%). However, only global economic policy will be able to give a confident command for the EUR/USD pair to break through the boundaries of the specified channel in one direction or another.
There are plenty of arguments about the euro strengthening. We have already written that Bloomberg's outperforming indicators indicate further growth of EUR/USD. The reason lies in the faster recovery of the Old-World economy compared to the United States. The diversification of gold and foreign exchange reserves by the central banks of leading countries is also developing in favour of the European currency. And then there is China, the main export partner of the Eurozone, despite the COVID-19 pandemic, showed GDP growth in the second quarter.
And, finally, one cannot ignore the intention of the Federal Reserve to reduce the price of the dollar, and the unwillingness of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, to start a currency war with her overseas colleagues because of this.
We will be listening to Fed Chief Jerome Powell's speeches for most of the coming week. It will start right on Monday September 21st, followed by a speech in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. And on September 24, he will be accompanied by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin. Will they say something fundamentally new or repeat just what Powell talked about on September 16? Most likely the second. But their speeches will surely be able to cause an increase in volatility;

- GBP/USD. The situation with the indicator readings here resembles the discord in the British Parliament during the Brexit vote. The only ones that give more or less clear signals are the oscillators on D1 - 75% of them are coloured red. But here the remaining 25% is already signaling that the pair is oversold. There is no consensus among the experts either, their opinions were equally divided: a third - for the growth of the pair, a third - for its fall, and a third turned their eyes to the east.
The graphic analysis was not clear either. Unlike most oscillators on D1, it indicates that the pair will first rise to 1.3000, and in case of a breakout, the next target will be 1.3185. The ultimate goal of the bulls is to retest the September 01 high at 1.3480. Support levels are 1.2760, 1.2650, 1.2500.
Moving from technical to fundamental analysis, it is necessary to recall the details of the last meeting of the Bank of England. Despite the absence of any decisions, the regulator's management did not hide that discussed the possibility of introducing negative rates as early as this November. And if such a decision is made, it can send the pound into a deep knockout. In the meantime, investors hope to be able to gain greater clarity on this issue from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday 22 September;

- USD/JPY. Although the Bank of Japan has raised its assessment of the state of the economy, the government has no intention of altering the volume of the stimulus program. Therefore, in this case, investors are more guided by the “dovish” statements of the Fed. Undoubtedly, the fall of US stock markets also plays a role. As a result, just like a week ago, the majority of experts (60%) side with the bears, who expect the pair to continue downtrend and further strengthen the Japanese currency. At the same time, they do not exclude that it can reach first the low of 09 March 101.17, and then the psychologically important level of 100.00 in the coming weeks. The closest support is located in the 104.20 zone.
The remaining 40% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect that the pair will not be able to break through the 104.20 level and will rebound upward and return to the 105.80-106.30 zone. 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling that the pair is oversold, agree with this scenario. It should be noted here that with the transition to the mid-term forecast, the number of supporters of the growth of the pair increases to 70%;

- cryptocurrencies. According to Dan Tapiero, co-founder of investment company DTAP Capital, the market has developed conditions for long-term strengthening of bitcoin. There are several macroeconomic factors that will drive increased demand for cryptocurrency. The main culprit is the US Fed, which is pouring money into the economy, thereby devaluing it.
“We are on the verge of economic turmoil; the situation will be similar to the crisis of the late 1980s. The value of American assets will fall by about half, which will cause a massive transition of capital from state securities to gold and bitcoin,” Tapiero said, stressing that during the last two and a half years we have seen consolidation of BTC and that now, most likely, we are waiting for an explosive growth in the value of the largest cryptocurrency. Investors just need to be patient.
Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, who also considers bitcoin to be one of the best long-term investments, agrees with Tapiero. True, he warns that the invention of a valid coronavirus vaccine could lead to a collapse in the price of bitcoin and gold, which Kiyosaki sees as safe haven assets. But it is at this point that investors will have a great opportunity to acquire these assets.
The opposite point of view was expressed by analysts from Weiss Crypto Ratings, who believe that the Bitcoin downtrend that took over the market in the early days of September is not strong enough to drive the coin value below $10,000 in the near future. (For Ethereum, Weiss Crypto Ratings consider the $350 level to be strong support.)
Interesting results were also shown by recent trading on the Deribit crypto derivatives exchange. Their participants actively bet on bitcoin options with the expectation that the price will rise to $32-36 thousand by the end of the year. According to the company, December contracts with a settlement price of $36,000 are in the lead, 752 of which were counted. They are followed by 462 contracts with a strike price of $32,000. December contracts, priced at $28,000, attracted relatively small volumes.
Such trading results are difficult to explain, given that, in general, market participants estimate the chance of Bitcoin's rise to at least $20,000 by the end of December as very low. The estimated probability of exceeding $20,000 is 5%, and $ 28,000 is only 2%. Most experts (65%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will meet 2021 in the $9,000-10,000 range, 10% believe that it will continue to move along $11,000, and only 25% expect to see it above $12,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- 45 of 50 UK and US pension funds and insurance companies with assets of about $80 billion will increase investments in cryptocurrencies in the next five years. This follows from a survey conducted by crypto insurance provider Evertas in conjunction with the analytical company Pureprofile. 84% of respondents believe that the expected improvement in market regulation will contribute to the growth of institutional investors' interest in cryptocurrencies, 80% cited increased liquidity as the reason. 64% of survey participants are confident in the positive dynamics of investments in cryptocurrencies, and 26% expect their radical growth.
Negative interest rates on traditional financial instruments can become a serious impetus for the transition to the cryptocurrency space. The barrier for the active growth of crypto investments is the lack of a suitable option for their insurance coverage. This was stated by representatives of 28 out of 50 companies.

- The head of the blockchain centre CryptoQuant Kim Yong-ju believes that the next sale of bitcoins by miners will not be able to have a strong impact on the cryptocurrency market. Now, block miners are still trying to get rid of their accumulations, but not on the same scale as it was about a month ago. “The consequence of the last sale was a sharp decline in the value of the main coin. Since then, the cryptocurrency market has been trying to regain lost ground. The main asset is trying now to overcome the barrier of $11,000, but so far it is hampered by periodic corrections. Most likely, in the long term, the large number of bitcoins that miners have put up for sale will have a positive impact on the market, as it will increase activity, but now their actions are putting pressure on the industry,” the head of CryptoQuant explains.

- Well-known analyst Willie Wu also spoke about the current situation in the cryptocurrency market. According to him, miners now represent only one of two factors that put serious pressure on bitcoin. The second strong factor, according to Wu, is the exchanges. Commissions on them are a kind of tax for the market. Because of this, miners are forced to go to the exchanges to sell their assets as quickly as possible, trying to pay lowest fees for transactions. "This intersection of basic factors prevents bitcoin from getting out of a narrow frame between 10 and 11 thousand dollars," the analyst said.

- There was another recalculation of the complexity of mining in the bitcoin network last Sunday, as a result of which the value reached a new historical high. According to BTC.com, the complexity increased by 11.35% to 19.31T on block 649,152. The previous record was set on August 24 at 17.56T. The increase in complexity is a result of the high speed of adding blocks to the blockchain - over the past two weeks, one block was added on average every 8 minutes 59 seconds, with a target of 10 minutes.

- Encryption viruses disappeared from the TOP threats in the first half of 2020: they accounted for only 1% of the total number of hacker attacks. This was reported by experts from Group-IB. And this despite the fact that bitcoin ransomware was in every second malicious mailing list at the end of 2019. Now, however, fraudsters have shifted the focus of their attacks from individual users to large corporate networks. “Hackers focused on targeted attacks, choosing large victims and demanding significantly large sums of money from them. Probably, the desire of encryption operators to hit a big jackpot will gradually lead to an increase in targeted attacks, while email will continue to be the main source of their distribution,” the experts explain.
The leader among the threats of the first half of 2020. was phishing disguised as various online services. Amid the pandemic and the transition of businesses online, the number of fake web pages has risen to a record 46%.

- According to Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, the limited number of BTC coins and the growing level of adoption will lead to a gradual steady increase in its value. “I don't see what could stop Bitcoin from doing what it has been doing successfully over the past 10 years, namely, grow,” McGlone said. Bitcoin's fixed supply, according to the strategist, makes it a better means of saving than gold, the total number of which remains unknown. McGlone named the growing number of active bitcoin addresses and the increasing flow of BTC to regulated exchanges as two main factors proving the growing demand for the main cryptocurrency. Another indicator pointing to the growing maturity of bitcoin as an asset class is the decrease in its volatility compared to the Nasdaq index.
VanEck strategist Gabor Gurbax approached the assessment of the prospects for bitcoin more carefully. “Bitcoin is better than gold in some respects and worse in others. The free market will decide itself which of them wins,” he wrote. For reference: the advantage is clearly still on the side of gold at present, its capitalization is about $9 trillion, while the cost of all BTC coins is about $205 billion, that is, 44 times lower.

- Caffe Barbera, which is positioned as the “oldest roasting plant in Italy”, has started accepting payments in cryptocurrencies. For this company, this is the fourth generation of currencies: first, payments were accepted in the lira of the Kingdom of Italy, then in the lira of the Republic, then in euros. And now, Caffe Barbera celebrated its 150th anniversary by joining the digital revolution. Today the company has a presence in 55 countries, and its e-commerce site operates on five continents. According to the management of the “coffee empire”, thanks to the use of BTC, ETH and XRP, the number of geographical regions can be increased. “The cryptocurrency market is full of charm and fits with our philosophy,” the move is explained at Caffe Barbera.

- Analytical agency Cane Island Digital Research has published the results of a study according to which the total number of bitcoins in circulation will be significantly less than the planned emission volume. In particular, analysts have come to the conclusion that since 2010, about 4% of the total amount of available assets has been lost in the bitcoin blockchain every year. So, the report says, the current available supply will be around 13.9 million, well below the expected total supply of 18.3 million. At the same time, for the first time since May 2020, the irrecoverable losses of this cryptocurrency exceed the rate of production of new coins. Most of this dramatic change is due to the May halving, which reduced the miner reward of 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block.

- On September 17, the management of the Bank of England held a discussion of the current issues of monetary policy. From the published transcript of the unfolding discussion, it became clear that the UK may very soon move to negative interest rates. The emergence of such a news message has not gone unnoticed in the crypto community. Billionaire and bitcoin investor Tyler Winklevoss stated immediately that “if the Bank of England decides to move to negative interest rates, they will pay extra if you borrow money from them. It is difficult to imagine a better motive for investors to start taking out such loans and investing in bitcoins for a long time."


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 28 - October 02, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The overwhelming majority of experts (75%), supported by the oscillators indicating that this pair is overbought, expected its correction to the south. The argument was that the pair ended the week near the strong resistance zone of 1.1900 on Friday, September 18. The above scenario came true 100%, and finally breaking through the mid-term support at 1.1700, the EUR/USD pair flew downward last week, finding the local bottom at 1.1610.
There are several macro-reasons for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the euro. First, it is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries. Secondly, skepticism about the prospects for the recovery of the American economy. Fed Chairman Robert Powell has once again urged the government to discuss the issue of additional incentives in the framework of QE. We must not lose sight of the situation with the growth of the yield on US government bonds. All this made investors once again turn their backs on the stock market and commodities and think of the dollar as a protective asset. As a result, active buying of the American currency followed, the DXY index, reflecting the value of the USD against a basket of major currencies, went up sharply, reaching the height of 94.70, and the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1625;

- GBP/USD. First, a few words about a non-standard pair, BTC/GBP. Rather, about what will happen to bitcoin if the Bank of England decides to lower the interest rate to negative values. Recall that at the last meeting, on September 17, the Bank's management did not adjust this rate, but it became clear from the published transcript that this is not excluded and could happen in the foreseeable future.
The appearance of such a news report has not been overlooked in the crypto sphere. Billionaire and bitcoin investor Tyler Winklevoss stated immediately that “if the Bank of England decides to move to negative interest rates, they will pay extra if you borrow money from them. It is difficult to imagine a better motive for investors to start taking out such loans and investing in bitcoins for a long time."
Great prospect for Winklevoss and the core cryptocurrency. But so far this has not happened, let's return to the GBP/USD chart. On Monday-Tuesday, the pound was retreating facing the American currency onslaught, however, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the second half of the week. Despite the fact that the UK, like France, reported a record increase in the number of infected with the coronavirus, the new government employment program helped, unlike the euro, to keep the British currency from further falling, allowing it to complete the five-day period at 1.2745;

- USD/JPY. As expected by 40% of analysts, the pair was unable to gain a foothold in the 104.00 zone, after which it went up 155 points. The week's results showed that investors at this stage decided to consider the dollar as the main protective asset, not gold or yen. Evidence of this is the sharp change in the correlation of the Japanese currency with the volatility of US stock indices, which determine the rise or fall of risk sentiment. The result of the last five-day period was the return of the pair within the two-month channel 105.20-106.55 and the final chord at 105.57;

- cryptocurrencies. Another attempt of bitcoin to gain a foothold above the $11,000 mark ended in another failure. As is often the case, the leap was taken over the weekend when the world's major exchanges were closed. But as soon as the traditional markets opened, the BTC/USD pair went down. Moreover, it is not entirely clear with what bitcoin correlates more, with risky stock assets or with such a defensive asset as gold. Everything was falling last week, but only the dollar rose in price. Therefore, it would probably be more correct to talk about the inverse correlation between the main cryptocurrency and the main world currency. (Although, it is clear anyway).
By the evening of Friday, September 25, gold dipped 5%, the S&P500 index lost 2.5%, the Dow Jones - 3.5%, and BTC - 3.2%. Moreover, on Wednesday, at its low, bitcoin fell to the level of $10.125, losing 7.5%.
According to the proponents of correlation with the stock market, the reason for the fall in the BTC/USD rate was a decline in share prices due to the Fed's statement that the US economy is still in a deep crisis, and because of another jump in the incidence of COVID-19. The news from China that the People's Bank of China may block the accounts of traders related to OTC trade for 5 years as part of the fight against money laundering cryptocurrencies, played its role as well.
Naturally, bitcoin is also under pressure from the ongoing sale of this cryptocurrency by miners. Block miners are still trying to get rid of savings, although not on the same scale as they were at the end of August. Moreover, according to a number of experts, miners now represent only one of two factors that put serious pressure on bitcoin. The second strong factor is the exchanges. Commissions on them are a kind of tax for the market, which is why miners rush to sell their assets as quickly as possible, trying to pay as low commission fees for transactions as possible. Such an intersection of basic factors, according to renowned analyst Willy Wu, does not allow bitcoin to get out of the narrow framework between 10 and 11 thousand dollars.
The total capitalization of the crypto market, having fallen in a seven-day period from $355 billion, returned to the level of two weeks ago in the area from $335 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is almost the same as before, at 46 (49 a week ago). But the bitcoin dominance index rose by 1.4%, and this despite the fall in the value of this coin. This fact only indicates that the sale of altcoins is going even faster. So, for example, if the BTC/USD pair lost 3.2% in seven days, ethereum (ETH/USD) fell by as much as 10%.


continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is difficult to predict whether the correction of this pair last week will develop into a long-term trend, or it will return to the limits of channel 1.1700-1.2010. But it is clear that a further sell-off of the European currency and a rise in the US dollar as a protective asset could cause the stock and commodities markets to collapse. This will be facilitated by an increase in the yield of US government bonds as well. Some forecasts suggest it could rise from the current 1.2% to 1.5%.
On the other hand, the largest multinational corporations in the United States do not need a strong dollar at all, since this will lead to higher prices for their goods and, as a result, decrease in sales and profits.
The upcoming presidential elections are catching up even more fog, since their results could radically affect the monetary policy of the US government, as well as Washington's relations with Brussels and Beijing.
In general, the situation is more than ambiguous. Therefore, the experts' votes were distributed as follows: 30% - for the fall of the EUR/USD pair, 30% - for its growth, and 40% took a neutral position.
As for technical analysis, the dollar wins with a clear advantage. Graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on H4, 80% on D1, and 85% of oscillators on both timeframes have voted for its growth and further decline in the pair. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold. Support at levels 1.1400, 1.1285, 1.1240 and 1.1165. Resistance levels are 1.1700, 1.1765, 1.1900 and 1.2010.
As for the macro events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to data on the consumer market of the US, Germany, and Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday 30 September. It will become known on the same day how much the US GDP fell in the second quarter of 2020. And of course, do not forget that traditionally on the first Friday of the month, October 02, the data on the US labor market will become known, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP);

- GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, unsettled Brexit conditions, weak economic data and the prospect of negative interest rates, the British currency can hardly boast of strong, impenetrable support. That is why 65% of experts believe that after a temporary respite, the pound will go down again. 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 fully agree with this. The nearest target of the bears is the 1.2500 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of oscillators, signaling that the pair is oversold. The bulls' task is to break through the resistance at 1.3000 and return the pair to the echelon 1.3000-1.3200;

- USD/JPY. 60% of analysts, as well as the graphical analysis on D1, still hope that the yen will be able to play back the last week's losses and return the pair to the level of 104.00. At the same time, they, as before, do not exclude that it can reach first the low of 09 March 101.17, and then the psychologically important level of 100.00 in the medium term.
As for the remaining 40% of experts, supported by technical and graphical analysis on H4, they expect the pair to at least rise to the upper border of the 105.20-106.55 corridor, and possibly test the 107.00 height;

- cryptocurrencies. First a few words about long-term forecasts. So, according to Reuters, the EU authorities are preparing to introduce new rules for regulating the crypto sector by 2024. And, most likely, they will be formulated in such a way as to provide carte blanche to the new "crypto-euro", and the advantages of the existing digital assets will be reduced to zero. Financial officials will try to take full control of the crypto market, which was created precisely in order to avoid their iron grip. And his supporters will now have to look for ways to get around the traps of regulators. The main problem is the withdrawal of crypto coins to fiat. It is at this stage that the owner of the capital is identified. And here, according to forecasts of a number of experts, the newly created crypto-offshore companies in the face of developing African and Asian countries will be included in the transaction chain.
And a little more about the distant future. Unlike Reuters, some analysts are painting a much brighter outlook for bitcoin. According to Bloomberg Chief Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, the limited number of BTC coins and the growing level of adoption will lead to a gradual steady increase in its value. “I don't see what could stop bitcoin from doing what it has been doing successfully over the past 10 years, namely, grow,” McGlone said. Bitcoin's fixed supply, according to the strategist, makes it a better means of saving than gold, the total number of which remains unknown. McGlone named the growing number of active bitcoin addresses and the increasing flow of BTC to regulated exchanges as two main factors proving the growing demand for the main cryptocurrency. Another indicator pointing to the growing maturity of bitcoin as an asset class is the decrease in its volatility compared to the Nasdaq index.
The results of a study conducted by Cane Island Digital Research also play in favor of this Bloomberg forecast. So, according to estimates of its analysts, the total number of bitcoins in circulation is actually much less than the planned emission volume. Analysts of the agency concluded that since 2010, about 4% of the total amount of available assets are lost annually in the bitcoin blockchain. “So,” their report said, “the current available offer will be about 13.9 million coins, far below the expected total offer of 18.3 million.” Thus, for the first time since May 2020, irretrievable losses of this cryptocurrency exceed the rate of production of new coins. Most of this dramatic change is due to the May halving, which reduced the miner reward of 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block.
As for the current forecast, the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair remains unchanged at $9,500, with the main support at $10,000. At the same time, 65% of experts believe that the bulls will make another attempt to break through the resistance of $11,000. However, only 20% of experts agree that the pair will be able to reach the height of $12,000 in the coming week.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- Bitcoin never managed to fall below $10,000. Cryptocurrency “whales” have re-activated after the main cryptocurrency approached this zone last week. The fall lasted only a few hours, and experts of the analytical service WhaleMap believe that large investors were simply waiting for the optimal moment for new investments. “It should be understood that for those who want to buy one coin, a downward correction may mean savings of several hundred dollars, but if we talk about 100 or more BTC, then the amounts become more significant. Large investors decided to take advantage of this and quickly replenished their stocks,” WhaleMap said in a statement.

- In the United States, a woman ordered the murder of her husband, offering to pay the killer in bitcoins. Judging by the ad, the customer was going to pay 12 coins for criminal services. She posted an ad on the search for the killer on the darknet, stating that she wanted to take the life of her husband, but could not do it on her own. A few days later, a man responded to the ad, who agreed to fulfill the order.
All this happened back in 2016, when the cost of 12 BTC coins was approximately $5,000. The woman transferred the funds, but her criminal order was never fulfilled. Before an in-person meeting with the killer, she asked several times why her husband was still alive, which is why the killer constantly had to look for explanations.
The killer turned out to be an undercover policeman, and, as a result, in January 2019, law enforcement officers found out about the woman's whereabouts and detained her.
The most interesting thing is that information about the correspondence of the customer with the alleged killer was recently released by a hacker who hacked the law enforcement authority’s resource.

- Bitcoin finished last week in the $10,750 zone. According to analyst portal Messari, this is the first time that daily bitcoin candles close above $10,000 for 63 consecutive days. The previous longest series was 62 days and was registered from December 1, 2017 to January 31, 2018, when bitcoin reached an all-time high near $20,000, having risen in price by 100% in two weeks. At the same time, the cryptocurrency was held above $11,000 for 50 days, and above $12,000 for 41 days.

- Bitcoin miners expect a repeat of the rally of the main coin of three years ago. Many market representatives are confident that there are all conditions for the cryptocurrency market to move into a stage of active growth now. It is about snatching the main coin to $20,000.
The head of the Crypto Quant trading platform, Ki Yong Joo, noted that signals for a return of bullish sentiment to the market began to appear in mid-summer, but strong external factors opposed the rise in the value of the coin then. The correlation with the stock market and gold was constantly changing, which is why the positive trend did not develop. Roughly the same situation was observed in the first half of 2017. Then the main coin was at values lower than the current ones, but from the middle of autumn it began to grow.
“There is no denying that mining pools are having a major impact on the cryptocurrency market. It is worth remembering the consequences of the halving this May, when the hashrate of the main coin dropped for a while. Growth in such conditions became impossible, so investors and holders of the asset moved to wait-and-see tactics. The situation is completely different now. Miner Position Index (MPI) continues to strengthen. They try to mine as many blocks as possible for maximum rewards. The hashrate of bitcoin is also stable at high rates," Joo said.

- US Fortune-500 medical services company Universal Health Services (UHS) became the victim of a ransomware attack. This is reported by the news site ZDNet. Some UHS hospitals were forced to switch to work without using computer systems, employees said. The problems affected UHS medical centers in North Carolina and Texas. Reddit users have also reported similar incidents in Arizona, Florida, and California.
According to some unconfirmed reports, UHS systems were attacked by the Ryuk virus, which, according to one version, is developed by Russian crypto hackers.

- The number of bitcoins mined exceeded 18.5 million units. A little less than 12% of the total issue, or less than 2.5 million coins, remains available for mining, most of which can be mined in the next four years.
Recall that according to the algorithm established by the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, the total amount of coins is 21 million, and halving occurs every four years - the reward for miners is halved. The main task of halving is to control the issue of cryptocurrency and its inflation. Thus, according to calculations, the last coin could be issued in 2140.

- Galaxy Digital Capital Management, an investment firm, notes in its September report that bitcoin could rise 60 times, becoming a more attractive asset than gold. Analysts draw attention to the fact that companies, whose shares are traded on the Wall Street stock exchange, and such legendary investors as billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, have already begun to invest in this cryptocurrency.
Experts at Galaxy Digital Capital Management draw attention to the fact that institutional players are beginning to perceive bitcoin as an inflationary hedge, that is, as a kind of "insurance" in case the US dollar loses the status of the world reserve currency.
Comparing the capitalization of gold (more than $12 trillion) and bitcoins (about $200 billion), analysts come to the conclusion that “the situation will level out towards the main cryptocurrency, into which there will be an outflow of investments from the precious metal.

- A study by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance says that around 100 million people in the world already own cryptocurrencies. In 2018, when a similar study was conducted, about 35 million people owned bitcoin and other coins, that is, three times less.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, up to 191 million addresses were registered on cryptocurrency exchanges. At the same time, analysts are not able to establish the number of anonymous wallets, which they pointed out in their report.
But it was found that up to 40% of cryptocurrency holders show periodic activity. The lion's share of BTC and other coin holders live in North America and Europe, followed by Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.

- Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Commodities Strategist Mike McGlone believes the first cryptocurrency should be valued at $15,000. He came to such conclusions based on the dynamics of growth in the number of active addresses since 2017, writes the Cointelegraph agency. The analyst continues to be optimistic about the outlook for Bitcoin and believes that the first cryptocurrency is leading the "paradigm shift towards digital money and means of savings." At the same time, he estimates the likelihood of alternative scenarios as low.
Recall that at the end of June McGlone predicted a spurt of the first cryptocurrency to the resistance level of $13,000, and a little earlier he announced the inevitability of overcoming the level of $20,000 by the end of this year.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 05 - 09, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The question that we tried to resolve last week was whether this pair will continue its fall or return again to channel 1.1700-1.2010. Experts couldn't give any clear answer then. Their votes were divided as follows: 30% favored the fall of the pair, 30% favored its rise and 40% took a neutral position. As a result, the pair surely did not continue to fall, but it is also difficult to call its movement returning to the channel: having reached the local high at 1.1700 on Thursday, October 01, the pair turned around and completed the five-day period at 1.1715.
Investors were not particularly impressed by the fact that the Democrats in the US House of Representatives passed legislation on a new package of economic stimulus worth $2.2 trillion, especially since it was previously about $3 trillion-plus. The US labour market data didn't have much impact on anything either. ADP's September Private Sector Employment Report showed an increase to 749K, up from 481K a month ago and a 650K forecast. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP), on the contrary, turned out to be less than both the August and forecast values: 661K in September, 1489K in August against the forecast for September 850K.
Investors were much more impressed by the news of the infection of US President Trump and the first lady with coronavirus. When this information appeared, the US dollar and the Japanese yen went up, but then the question arose, how serious this disease is and how it could affect the economic situation in the United States and in the world. And before at least some clarity appeared, the market paused, and the EUR/USD pair moved to a sideways movement in a narrow range of $ 1.1685-1.1770, within which, as already mentioned, it came to the end of the weekly trading session;

- GBP/USD. Against the background of Brexit uncertainty, the pair returned to the range where it was already trading on September 15-21 - 1.2805-1.3000, thus confirming the forecast given last week by 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and 15% of oscillators that signaled the pair was oversold. After a jerk up by 230 points, the strength of the bulls dried up, they could not break through the resistance of 1.3000, and the pair completed the five-day period in the area of 1.2935;

- USD/JPY. The last week cannot be called remarkable for the Japanese currency. Until Friday, the pair moved in a very narrow channel 105.30-105.75, and it was only on the news of the positive test for coronavirus by Donald and Melania Trump that the pair jumped down, reaching 104.95. This movement showed that, in such a critical situation, investors are likely to intuitively prefer yen, considering it a safer protective asset than the dollar. Although, a 70-point drop in the dollar could hardly be considered a major loss. Moreover, later the situation stabilized, the pair went up, and its final chord sounded at the level of 105.35;

- cryptocurrencies. We started our previous analytical review of the digital market with the phrase: "Another attempt by bitcoin to gain a foothold above the $11,000 mark ended in another failure." the same can be said about the outgoing week. Having bumped their heads against the ceiling of $10,940-10,970, the bulls gave up and the BTC/USD pair rolled back to the $10,400-10,500 zone, which fully confirmed the forecast, which was voted for by the majority of experts (65%). As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has dropped slightly over the past seven days, from 46 to 41, and is still in the neutral zone.
According to analyst portal Messari, this is the first time that daily bitcoin candles close above $10,000 for 63 consecutive days. The previous longest series was 62 days and was registered from December 1, 2017 to January 31, 2018, when bitcoin reached an all-time high near $20,000, having risen in price by 100% in two weeks. At the same time, the cryptocurrency was held above $11,000 for 50 days, and above $12,000 for 41 days.
According to the experts of the WhaleMap analytical service, bitcoin is now prevented from falling below $10,000 by large investors who begin to replenish their reserves as soon as the value of BTC approaches this level. It is for this reason that at the week high, the total capitalization of the crypto market, despite the drop in quotations, grew to $350 billion. However, on October 01-02, another sale of coins dropped it to $330 billion once again.
The dynamics of the cryptocurrency market is increasingly dependent on the mood in the traditional markets and is subject to changes in the risk appetite of investors. The latter in turn depend on the situation with the coronavirus and the reaction of regulators to it.
According to experts of Galaxy Digital Capital Management, bitcoin is beginning to be perceived by institutional players as an inflation hedge, that is, as a kind of “insurance” in case the US dollar loses the status of the world reserve currency. Comparing the capitalization of gold (more than 12 trillion dollars) and bitcoins (about 200 billion dollars), analysts of this company conclude that “the situation will level out towards the main cryptocurrency, into which there will be an outflow of investments from the precious metal, which may raise its value 60 times in the future.
If you look at the results of the first 9 months of 2020, it becomes obvious that the COVID-19 pandemic has already benefited bitcoin. Even despite the panic of late February - early March, the coin has risen in price by about 40% (gold - by 25%). If we take March 13 as the starting point, then during this period the main cryptocurrency has grown 2.75 times (gold - 1.3 times).
This situation also contributed to the growth of cryptocurrency fans. A study by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance says about 100 million people already own bitcoin and other coins in the world. In 2018, there were about 35 million of them, that is, three times less. The lion's share of BTC and other coin holders live in North America and Europe, followed by Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. As of the end of the third quarter of 2020, up to 191 million addresses were registered on cryptocurrency exchanges.


continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 65% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on H4 expect that the dollar will be able to strengthen its position somewhat in the coming days, and the pair will once again test support of 1.1600. This is opposed, respectively, by 35% of experts and graphical analysis on D1, according to which the EUR/USD pair, having returned to the 1.1700-1.2010 range, will continue to move towards its central part and will consolidate in the 1.1800-1.1900 range in the second half of the week.
Oscillators and trend indicators do not give any signals that are more or less suitable for forecasting. Particularly important macro statistics are not expected these days either. Interest may be caused by the speeches of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Tuesday October 6 and his European counterpart Christine Lagarde on Wednesday October 7. The minutes of the US Fed Open Market Committee meeting will be published on the same day.
However, the main intrigue of the week will undoubtedly remain the health of the Trump presidential couple. If the old enough president of the United States quickly returns to full-time work, it will become a good trump card in his election race. Thus, he will be able to show that he assessed the degree of danger of coronavirus correctly and took adequate measures to combat the pandemic in the United States. If the symptoms of the disease turn out to be severe, this will not only force Trump to curtail the election campaign, but, showing the seriousness of the threat, will turn many doubting voters against him;

- GBP/USD. Due to the growth of the pair last week, the overwhelming majority of indicators (85%) are colored green. But will this trend continue in the future?
It is clearly not worth looking for the answer to this question in the readings of the indicators. As of Friday evening October 02, when this forecast is being written, Brexit news remains more than contradictory. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday 03 October. How this meeting will end is anyone's guess so far. And then another factor of uncertainty arrived in time - the infection of Donald and Melania Trump with the COVID-19 virus. That is why the analysts' opinions are distributed as follows: 40% support the growth of the pair, 40% are for its fall and 20% have taken a neutral position. The nearest target of the bears is 1.2675, followed by support in the 1.2500 zone. The bulls' task is to break through the resistance at 1.3000 and return the pair to the echelon 1.3000-1.3200;

- USD/JPY. Graphic analysis both on H4 and D1 shows the pair's decline to the lowest of the past week in the 105.00 zone, and then another 100 points lower, where it already visited on July 31 and September 21. Resistance in this case will be the level of 105.80.
After completing this trip to the south, according to the graphical analysis on D1, the pair should return to the zone 105.00-106.00, and go further north by the end of October, to 107.00.
The bearish sentiment is also supported by 85% of the experts, as well as about 70% of the indicators. Analysts' forecasts are largely influenced by the situation with the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, which has now directly affected the Trump couple. And that's just a month before this country's presidential election. However, this situation can change very quickly, and then the scenario will be realized, for which only 15% of experts have now voted, according to which the pair will go up and quickly reach the zone 106.55-107.00;

- cryptocurrencies. The number of bitcoins mined exceeded 18.5 million units. Just under 12% of the total issue or less than 2.5 million coins remain available for production, most of which could be mined in the next four years and the last coin in 2140.
Recall that according to the algorithm established by the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, the total amount of coins is 21 million, and halving occurs every four years - the reward for miners is halved. The main task of halving is to control the issue of cryptocurrency and its inflation.
Bitcoin miners expect a repeat of the rally of the main coin of three years ago. Many market representatives are confident that there are all conditions for the cryptocurrency market to move into a stage of active growth now. It is about snatching the main coin to $20,000.
The head of the Crypto Quant trading platform, Ki Yong Joo, noted that signals for a return of bullish sentiment to the market began to appear in mid summer, but strong external factors opposed the rise in the value of the coin then. “There is no denying that mining pools are having a major impact on the cryptocurrency market. It is worth remembering the consequences of the halving this May, when the hashrate of the main coin dropped for a while. Growth in such conditions became impossible, so investors and holders of the asset moved to wait-and-see tactics. The situation is completely different now. Miner Position Index (MPI) continues to strengthen. They try to mine as many blocks as possible for maximum rewards. The hashrate of bitcoin is also stable at high rates," Joo said.
Bloomberg Intelligence chief commodities strategist Mike McGlone expects growth as well. He believes that the first cryptocurrency should be valued at $15,000. He came to such conclusions based on the dynamics of growth in the number of active addresses since 2017. At the same time, he estimates the likelihood of alternative scenarios as low.
As for the current forecast, almost everything is the same here: the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair is $9,500, the main support is $10,000, the main resistance is $11,000. At the same time, the probability of the next attack of bulls to this height, according to experts, is close to 70%, and the probability of consolidation above this level is twice lower.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- The creator of the well-known McAfee antivirus has been detained in Spain and is now to be extradited to the United States. In addition to tax evasion, the US authorities also accuse John McAfee of intentionally failing to file tax returns from 2014 to 2018. The indictment alleges that the businessman received millions of dollars in revenue from cryptocurrency promotion, consulting services, speeches and the sale of the rights to a documentary about himself.
The US authorities are confident that McAfee evaded tax in many ways, channeling money into bank and cryptocurrency accounts, investing in real estate, yachts and other luxury goods registered in other people. And the businessman himself, being the candidate for the US presidency from the Libertarian Party, admitted in his election video that he had not paid taxes for many years. Now he faces a prison sentence of up to 5 years on each of the charges of tax evasion and another year in prison for each of the five episodes of failure to file a tax return.
Recall that John McAfee became famous in the field of cryptocurrencies after he made a bet in the summer of 2017 that the price of bitcoin will reach $500 thousand by 2020.

- Bitcoin capitalization could exceed $5 trillion. According to experts from one of the shareholders of Tesla, the ARK Invest fund, this will take еру coin up to 10 years, but massive investments may begin earlier.
The ARK Invest report says that over the next five years, the capitalization of bitcoin will approach $1 trillion. After that, growth will occur at a faster pace, which will be reflected in the value of the asset. So, according to Bobby Lee, a member of the board of directors of the Bitcoin Foundation Foundation, by 2028 the price of the main coin can reach $500 thousand.
Еhe capitalization of bitcoin is about $ 200 billion now. According to the analytical service CoinGecko, it has remained practically unchanged over the past two months, although there were prerequisites for this. “Some investors still doubt the prospects and merits of bitcoin. Because of this, the main coin cannot exit the narrow frame. This has a particularly negative impact on the activities of traders who cannot open long-term positions, fearing serious drawdowns of the coin,” CoinGecko experts explain.

- The American Chamber of Digital Commerce has launched the Crypto for Congress campaign, under which it will donate $50 in bitcoins to each of the election campaigns of the members of the US Congress. This educational initiative should increase the attention of the people's representatives to blockchain and digital assets. In addition to bitcoins, congressmen will have the opportunity to complete relevant online training.
At the same time, overseas, British politician Godfrey Bloom added bitcoins to his investment portfolio for the first time in his life. At the same time, the 70-year-old aspiring crypto-investor admitted that he would like to learn more about digital assets. Godfrey Bloom was an MEP from 2004 to 2014. During this time, he distinguished himself with harsh statements against the traditional financial system, claiming that the banking structure is built on fraud.

- According to Chainalysis data, Latin America's share of the global cryptocurrency economy is about 7%. The largest activity is in the remittance sector, where Mexico leads (11% of total transfers).
According to Daniel Cartolin, a spokesman for Chainalysis, traditionally the volume of remittances between this country and the United States is very large. And cryptocurrency allows to reduce transaction costs and facilitate the process of sending and receiving funds. "One doesn't need to go to websites like Western Union or Moneygram to carry out a transaction. It can be done over the phone,” said the expert in an interview for El Economista.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone said In the monthly issue of the cryptocurrency market digest that the bitcoin rate could exceed $100 thousand within 5 years. Judging by the document, the logic of analytics is very simple: in 2011 BTC was worth about $10, in 2013 - $1,000, and it took four years to reach the $10,000 mark in 2017. That is, the growth rates are slowing down, and it will take not four, but eight years to conquer the next peak. Given that three of them have already passed, BTC will reach $100K by 2025.
Mike McGlone also expects BTC to return to 2019 highs of $14,000 by the end of this year.

- Another scam is unfolding on Twitter, aimed at siphoning bitcoins and ethereums from gullible users. The protagonist of the deception was again Elon Musk. Although it is clear that neither he nor his company have anything to do with this scam.
The message being circulated states that any registered user can receive bitcoins or ethereums by leaving their address. In addition, the one who sends a certain amount of cryptocurrency to Musk's company will become a participant in the draw with the main prize — the Tesla Model S car.

- A report from the CoinMeitrcs analytical service team says that against the background of weak volatility in the crypto market, investors prefer to keep coins, rather than sell them. The build-up intensified after the March collapse. Investors have been transferring bitcoins from exchanges to so-called cold wallets in recent months, reflecting their desire to switch to long-term storage of cryptocurrency.
The researchers found that the number of addresses holding BTC for more than one year reached its highest level in a decade last month - 63.5% of bitcoins have not moved anywhere since the autumn of 2019.

- The CEO of the venture capital company Social Capital, Chamat Palihapitiya, gave an interview to CNBC, during which the topic of cryptocurrencies was raised. He said he has held investments in bitcoin since 2012 and continues to build them up. When asked what he thinks about bitcoin, given the increased interconnection of the cryptocurrency market with the stock market, the investor replied that he still sees bitcoin as a hedge against the modern financial system.
“At a fundamental level, BTC does not correlate with traditional markets because it is based on a set of beliefs that are exactly the opposite of the attitudes that govern the modern world. This is the insurance I use to sleep well at night, in case the central banks and world authorities come across a bomb,” Palihapitiya said.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 12 - 16, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. We have repeatedly written about the ECB's fear of strengthening the euro as it poses a threat to the recovery of the Eurozone economy. However, neither the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde nor her colleagues want to start a currency war with the US Federal Reserve. Therefore, try to turn the market around not by actions, but by words.
The minutes of the September meeting of the ECB were to convince investors that, saving the economy from the second wave of COVID-19, the regulator could in the near future expand the quantitative easing (QE) program, and even reduce interest rates. And, judging by the quotes, at first the market believed in all this: EUR/USD pair went down, and the dollar went into growth. But all this did not last long: having lost about 80 points and reaching the 1.1725 zone, the pair turned around and went north again, ending the five-day period at 1.1825. As a result, it returned to the central zone of the side channel 1710-1.1920, the boundaries of which were outlined at the very beginning of August.
Most likely, such a change in trend is associated with forecasts regarding the results of the US presidential elections on November 3. Expectations of Joe Biden's victory pulled up the stock market and triggered another fall in the American currency. So, the S&P500 rose by 265 points in a week and a half, and the dollar shrunk by 210 points in two weeks. Although, it's likely that everything is built on emotions. And it is unlikely that anyone can explain why Biden will be better and more useful for the U.S. economy than Trump;

- GBP/USD. In general, the dynamics of this pair repeats the movements of EUR / USD, which suggests that everything depends not on the behavior of the common European or British currencies, but on the US dollar at the moment.
Macro statistics characterizing the state of the British economy turned all red. Data from the construction sector, industrial production, GDP - everything went into negative territory. There has been no particular progress in the Brexit negotiations. But the market did not react to these data in any way. And, if we look at the results of the week, the pound, albeit a little, bypassed the dollar, having strengthened by over 100 points. This is due to the growth of the US stock market, which caused a general weakening of the American currency (the DXY index fell from 94.64 on September 25 to 93.06 on October 09). The GBP/USD pair placed the finishing chord at the1.3045, in the Pivot Point zone of the last ten weeks;

- USD/JPY. Only 15% of analysts voted for the growth of this pair in the previous forecast. However, at the beginning of the week it listened to them and went north to the zone 106.00. Apparently, investors did not want to seek refuge in the quiet Japanese harbor and preferred risky sentiments. However, the situation calmed down a bit, the pair switched to a sideways trend, and it returned to the area where it had repeatedly stayed from September 25 to October 07 at the end of the week - to the zone 105.60. So the result of the last two weeks can be safely called zero;

- cryptocurrencies. Maybe bitcoin has already become a full-fledged protective asset? Many experts and investors ask this question. Indeed, it cannot jump over the $11,000 mark for the fifth week in a row, but it does not go down either, forming an "ascending triangle" pattern.
Its quotes were not affected either by the infection of the family of President Trump with the coronavirus, or hacker attacks, or attacks by regulators. How did Bitcoin react to the fact that the American CFTC regulator, together with the federal prosecutor's office, accused one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges BitMEX of financial fraud? It didn't! Or here's the news of the theft of $200-350 million worth of crypto assets from the KuCoin Hong Kong exchange. Previously, it would have caused the effect of an exploding bomb. And now there is silence.
There is no need to talk about the arrest of the creator of the well-known antivirus McAfee, who became famous in the crypto world for his scandalous predictions and bets. Well, John McAfee (by the way, a former US presidential candidate from the Libertarian Party) avoided paying taxes with the help of cryptocurrencies. So what? The news is curious of course. But this is not a reason to drop the bitcoin rate.
The volatility of the main cryptocurrency has reached its lowest level in the last two years. A report from the CoinMeitrcs analytical service team says that against this backdrop, investors prefer to keep coins rather than sell them. The build-up intensified after the March collapse. Investors have been transferring bitcoins from exchanges to so-called cold wallets in recent months, reflecting their desire to switch to long-term storage of cryptocurrency. The number of addresses holding BTC for more than one year reached its highest level in a decade last month - 63.5% of bitcoins have not moved anywhere since the autumn of 2019.
Last week, BTC/USD pair, not falling below $10,500, made another attempt to break the resistance of $11,000, which is generally consistent with the scenario proposed by our experts. At the time of writing this forecast, the main cryptocurrency is quoted at $11,100. However, it is unclear whether it will be able to gain a foothold in this zone, since Saturday and Sunday are ahead, when strong price movements can occur in the thin market.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization grew from $330 billion to $349 billion in seven days. Moreover, this chart is very similar to the BTC/USD chart, which once again reminds of which coin dominates this market. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it is at 48, almost in the very center of the scale. Note that, since the first days of September, this index has never gone beyond the central zone, staying in the range from 40 to 50, which is fully consistent with the current low volatility of the BTC/USD pair and confirms the close correlation of these two indicators.

continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the next election of the President of the United States is getting closer, hour X is scheduled for November 03. But what can it change radically? In theory, we are talking about the normalization of monetary policy, which should strengthen the US currency. But in practice, the Fed's capabilities are already severely limited.
The Wall Street Journal estimates that most analysts (57%) believe that no matter who ends up in the White House, the labor market will not be able to return to full employment until 2023 at the earliest. And this increases the likelihood of a weakening dollar and further growth of the pair EUR/USD. And here it is again just right to start talking about the currency conflict between the Fed and the ECB.
As already mentioned, the European Central Bank does not like a weak dollar and a strong euro at all, and it would be glad if the pair turned south. Among the arguments that can convince investors to do this, experts most often refer to the serious deterioration of the epidemiological situation with COVID-19 in Europe, as well as negative forecasts on the state of the Old World economy, which could lead to an expansion of stimulus measures by the ECB, including an interest rate cut and a build-up to the QE program.
And another strongest factor is the growth of the US stock market. As long as it grows. But if suddenly, on the eve of or following the results of the presidential election, investors begin to massively fix profits, this will lead to a sharp rise in the dollar and a fall in the euro and other currencies.
Among the most important and interesting events of the coming week, one can note the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on October 12 and 13, the publication of macro statistics on the US consumer market on October 13 and 16, as well as the debate of the candidates for the President of the United States, which will be held at the end of the working week, on Friday October 16
- EUR/USD. 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are colored green. Among the oscillators, the majority (75%) also point north, but 25% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis indicates that the pair will move in the 1710-1.1920 channel for the next few days, after which it will drop to the lows of September 25-28 in the 1.1600 zone. As for the experts, most of them (60%) believe that the pair, before going down, will first rise to the upper boundary of the specified channel. The remaining 40% expect it to fall sharply to 1.1600;

- GBP/USD. Here, as in the case of other currencies, the forecast is based on the growth and fall of investors' risk appetites. GBR100 was able to grow following the American indices. And if the US stock markets continue to rise and the dollar to fall, then the GBP/USD pair will continue to grow. If mass profit-taking starts on stock markets in the run-up to the presidential election in America, then we can expect a downward turn. A lull, accordingly, will cause a lull.
As for technical and graphic analyses, their readings also coincide with those of their “colleagues” in the EUR/USD pair. The cancellation of the correlation of these two pairs can occur only for two reasons: 1) if something extraordinary happens in the negotiations between the EU and the UK on Brexit, or 2) if the ECB nevertheless decides to take decisive new steps to support the Eurozone economy, and the Bank of England, as they say , "remain as is", that is, does not take any additional incentive measures. The next speech by the head of this regulator, Andrew Bailey, is scheduled for Monday, October 12, and it is not excluded that he will outline the priorities of the Bank of England for the next period.
As was said, the pair finished last week in the medium-term Pivot Point zone at the 1.3045 horizon. The nearest support is 1.3000, the next ones are 1.2840, 1.2760 and 1.2675. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3185 and 1.3265;

- USD/JPY. Considering the result of the past two weeks, there is no clarity with the near future for this pair, and the opinion of experts (50% to 50%) does not allow any conclusions to be drawn. Although, if you look at the readings of graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, the advantage is still with the bulls, and there is an opportunity for the pair to rise first to the resistance of 106.00, then to 106.40, and finally to the height of 107.20.
If we go from the weekly scenario to the monthly one, then there is a clear advantage among analysts, on the contrary, on the side of the bears. 70% of them expect the yen to strengthen and the pair to decline to the September 21 low at 104.00. Supports are 105.00 and 104.45;

- cryptocurrencies. Stock indexes rose and the BTC/USD pair grew last week, which gave the reason to once again talk about the correlation of bitcoin with S&P500 and Dow Jones. However, some reputable experts believe that this dependence is temporary.
So, the CEO of the venture capital company Social Capital Chamat Palihapitiya said in an interview with CNBC that he still sees bitcoin as a hedge against the modern financial system. “At a fundamental level, BTC does not correlate with traditional markets because it is based on a set of beliefs that are exactly the opposite of the attitudes that govern the modern world. This is the insurance I use to sleep well at night in case the central banks and world authorities come across a bomb,” Palihapitiya said.
According to experts from one of the shareholders of Tesla, the ARK Invest fund, the capitalization of bitcoin may exceed $5 trillion. This will take the coin up to 10 years, but massive investments can start earlier. This figure could reach $1 trillion in the next 5 years, after which growth will occur at a faster rate. This will also affect the value of the asset. So, according to Bobby Lee, a member of the board of directors of the Bitcoin Foundation, the price of the main coin can reach $500 thousand by 2028.
The forecast of Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is also interesting. In his opinion, the rate of bitcoin can exceed $100k within 5 years. The logic here is simple: in 2011 BTC was worth about $10, in 2013 - $1,000, and it took four years to reach the $10,000 mark in 2017. That is, the growth rates are slowing down, and it will take not four, but eight years to conquer the next peak. Given that three of them have already passed, BTC will reach $100K by 2025. Mike McGlone also expects BTC to return to 2019 highs of $14,000 by the end of this year.
As for the generalized forecast for the coming week, compared to the previous one, it shifted 500 points higher: the main support is expected at $10,500, the resistance at $11,500. The probability of a confident breakout of the $ 12,000 level is still estimated by analysts at only 10%.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews

- There has been a wave of calls in Japan about the mining of educational institutions and rural administrations from scammers who demanded a ransom in cryptocurrencies. The corresponding incidents have been recorded in at least 18 prefectures of the country. “Bitcoin was the most popular choice for criminals,” said Japan Today. "But in none of the cases has the information about the explosives been confirmed."
One of the incidents occurred in the town of Yamagata. Criminals demanded 40 bitcoins for clearing the building there. The authorities have already raised 450 thousand dollars and were going to transfer them into cryptocurrency for ransom. But when police and deminers went to the scene, no explosive devices were found. As a result, in none of the cases the demining ransom was transferred.

- Ethereum mining revenues have grown by about 40 percent over the past month. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, the main source of new earnings was the increased commissions. The popularization of the DeFi market was also reflected in the income of miners, which significantly increased the number of operations performed on the Ethereum blockchain.
However, the situation could change dramatically if Joe Biden wins the presidential election. This will cause a new wave of inspections and tightening of control over the financial market, due to which some of the DeFi projects will be closed. In this case, the industry will sag again, although the fall will not be as noticeable.
But Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg experts, will only win if Joe Biden wins. Under Donald Trump, the emphasis was on strengthening the dollar and all industries associated with it. Analysts are confident that the new American administration will think more progressively in financial matters, as a result of which the adoption of cryptocurrencies by regulators will accelerate significantly, while other assets will simply lose their relevance.

- Founded by Binance, the Blockchain Charity Foundation (BCF) continues to raise donations for the purchase of personal protective equipment against coronavirus infection. More than $4 million in cryptocurrency has been raised as of now.
The organization has already provided aid to 20 countries around the world, purchasing more than 450 million masks and other protective equipment for their medical facilities.

- A sheep farmer from Lincolnshire has been sentenced to 14 years in prison for extorting ?1.4m worth of bitcoins from supermarket chain Tesco, the Daily Mail reports.
For two years, 45-year-old Nigel Wright put cans of Heinz and Cow & Gate baby food brands on the shelves of the chain stores, which he stuffed with metal fragments, including shards of a stationery knife. After which he demanded ransom in exchange for a promise to reveal the location of the dangerous cans.
The sheep breeder was detained after a detective posing as a Tesco employee transferred ?100,000 in cryptocurrency to him. Two women testified in court, who almost fed the children with food containing metal fragments. According to one of them, her husband found a piece of a knife blade at the bottom of the can.
As a result of Wright's threats, Tesco had to recall from stores a total of 140 thousand cans of baby food, 42 thousand of them were destroyed. It cost the trading network ?2.7 million in losses.

- The manager of the investment company Cane Island Alternative Advisors, Timothy Peterson, is convinced that the price of bitcoin with a 90% probability will not fall below $11,000. The strength of support at this level is due to "long-term, fundamental trends."
According to the expert, Metcalfe's Law Value Approach has already helped him to successfully forecast the BTC price in late 2018 and into 2019. Let us clarify that this law states that the utility of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users. In this context, the value of bitcoin depends entirely on the number of people using it.
According to Peterson's calculations, on November 30, 2020, the price of bitcoin will be above $12,000 with a 90% probability.

- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said that since no Bitcoin inflow has been recorded, the coin will continue to rise.
To assess the volume of BTC transfers to exchanges, CryptoQuant has created its own indicator All Exchanges Inflow Mean, and now it remains in the “safe” zone: the “whales” are in no hurry to get rid of their reserves. And it looks like bitcoin's rise above $11,500 won't lead to its massive sell-off.

- Swiss luxury watch maker Franck Muller has created an exclusive line of bitcoin-themed watches called The King, which is available in two versions, each with just 10 pieces. The name correlates with the status of bitcoin, which is considered the king of cryptocurrencies.
You need to be a real bitcoin fan and a wealthy person to buy this watch. Although the price of these exclusive accessories is not yet known, there is still a benchmark: the Encrypto watches of this company cost from 10,000 to 54,000 euros.
A feature of The King model, like the Encrypto lines, is a set of QR codes on the digital dial. By scanning it, the owner of the jewelry can verify their personal bitcoin accounts.


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[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 19 - 23, 2020​

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The market is now ruled by two main factors: the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming November 3 presidential election in the United States.
A rise of nearly 900,000 in applications for unemployment benefits showed that the labor market and the U.S. economy need more stimulus measures. And although, according to US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, an agreement on such measures between Democrats and Republicans before the election is unlikely, negative statistics have tempered greatly the market risk appetite and pushed down stock indices such as the S&P500. This clearly benefited the US currency: by Thursday, the dollar gained 135 points, and the EUR/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.1685. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1715;
It is possible that the “American” would continue to strengthen its position, but the “European” is actively helped by the confident development of the economy of China and the ECB, which is clearly not going to increase the volumes of its quantitative easing (QE) program.
The number of COVID-19 cases in Europe is growing, which could provoke the introduction of new strict quarantine measures that restrict economic activity. However, after the adoption of a program to support the European economy in the amount of €1.8 trillion at the end of July, the European Central Bank does not want to boost developments and expand its monetary stimulus program. At the moment, less than half of the funds have been spent within the framework of the already operating QE program, therefore, it simply does not make sense to talk about new incentives, according to the Vice President of the ECB Luis de Guindos;

- GBP/USD. The uptrend of the first 12 days of October is over, and the pair has moved to the sideways movement in the range 1.2860-1.3080. Moreover, the end of the week was left to the bears, who managed to put the final point at the level of 1.2915. An obstacle to the growth of the pound was the introduction of additional restrictions due to the coronavirus in London, as well as the statement of the EU leadership that the bloc, although it seeks a fair partnership with the UK, will not compromise at any cost;

- USD/JPY. This pair ended the weekly session at 105.40, in a zone of a very strong mid-term support, which has stopped its decline many times over the past 12 weeks. And now the question of what a safer haven for investors is, the dollar or the yen, remains open. The competition continues;

- cryptocurrencies. We often start our review of cryptocurrencies with criminal news. Nothing particularly outstanding in this area happened last week. Although police reports had information about attempts to blackmail and extortion of cryptocurrency now and then.
So, there was a wave of calls about mining buildings in at least 18 prefectures in Japan. Scammers demanded a ransom in cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin was the most popular choice for criminals,” said Japan Today. "But in none of the cases has the information about the explosives been confirmed." As a result, the criminals did not receive money, but they have not yet been caught, unlike a sheep farmer from Lincolnshire (England), who has already been sentenced to 14 years in prison for extorting ?1.4 million worth of bitcoins from Tesco supermarket chain.
According to the Daily Mail, 45-year-old Nigel Wright put cans of Heinz and Cow & Gate baby food brands on the shelves of the chain stores, which he stuffed with metal fragments, including shards of a stationery knife, for two years, After which he demanded ransom in exchange for a promise to reveal the location of the dangerous cans. The sheep breeder was detained after a detective posing as a Tesco employee transferred ?100,000 in cryptocurrency to him.
As a result of Wright's threats, Tesco had to recall from stores a total of 140 thousand cans of baby food, 42 thousand of them were destroyed. It cost the trading network ?2.7 million in losses.
If Tesco has suffered losses, bitcoin holders continue to profit: the price of the main cryptocurrency has increased by about 3% over the past 7 days. As we predicted, the BTC/USD pair, despite several attempts, failed to overcome the resistance of $11,500 and marked a new consolidation zone in the area of $11,300-11,400.
The total capitalization of the crypto market during this time has also grown slightly and is at $357 billion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it is still in the neutral yellow zone at the heart of the scale ¬— at 52 (it was 48 a week ago).
Bitcoin has risen by 8.5% in the last 6 weeks. But the results of such top altcoins as litecoin (LTC/USD), ripple (XRP/USD) and ethereum (ETH/USD) are almost zero. Ethereum mining revenues have grown by about 40 percent over the past month. According to the analytical platform Glassnode, the main source of new earnings was the increased commissions. The popularization of the DeFi market was also reflected in the income of miners, which significantly increased the number of operations performed on the Ethereum blockchain.
Its protocol and the ability to create smart contracts allowed to create decentralized financial instruments within the framework of DeFi and DAO projects that allow you to borrow or lend cryptocurrency, and also earn on its simple retention (staking). As a result, the number of daily active wallets in the Ethereum network quadrupled - from 12.8 thousand in the second quarter to 50.2 thousand in the third quarter of 2020. The Ethereum blockchain accounted for 96% of all transactions related to decentralized applications (dapps), for a total of almost $120 billion.
Such activity of competitors could not but excite the holders of the main cryptocurrency - bitcoin. And as a result of the joint work of the Kyber network, the Ren ecosystem and BitGo, a similar project was implemented - DAO WBTC. The results of the 4th quarter will show how effective and popular it will be.


continued below...

 

[Stan NordFX]

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. When looking at the chart of this pair, it becomes clear to the experienced trader that oscillators either on H4 or on D1 are unable to give any accurate predictions now. Among trend indicators, a certain advantage is on the red side - 70% on both timeframes. However, even despite the support of graphical analysis on D1, technical analysis cannot guarantee the continuation of the downtrend. The key word, as usual, is with fundamental analysis. Or rather, with those factors that were mentioned at the very beginning of the review.
Of course, it may be that we will hear something new next week. It seems that the main goal of the heads of regulators is to achieve their goals solely with words. Speeches by the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde are scheduled for October 18, 19 and 21, while the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will be heard on Monday, October 19. But that's not all — a debate is due to be held by US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden on Friday October 23. Only 10 days are left until the “X” hour, so the duel of politicians promises to be unusually hot.
Both Lagarde and Powell's speeches and the White House contenders’ debate could have a heavy impact on investor sentiment. And if the fall in stock indices continues, it will cause further strengthening of the dollar and further movement of the EUR/USD pair to the south. 60% of analysts agree with such a development, pointing out September lows around 1.1610 as a target. The remaining 40% believe that, having bounced off the level of 1.1715, the pair will go up. The nearest resistance levels are 1.1755 and 1.1825. The following barrier is located in zone 1.1900;

- GBP/USD. Not only the heads of the ECB and the Fed, but also the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will talk a lot in the near future. His speeches are scheduled for October 18 and 22. However, he will not be the main newsmaker. The pound still has potential for further growth, but this requires a real breakthrough in the negotiations between the UK and the European Union on Brexit terms. And they, apparently, will drag on for another two weeks, or even longer. The fact that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson is not going to move away from the negotiation process is a good signal and gives us hope that an agreement with the EU can still be reached. But not in the coming days. Therefore, 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, believe that the GBP/USD pair may well fall to the 1.2700 zone in the coming week. Supports are 1.2845 and 1.2770.
The remaining 30% of analysts hope that the pair will remain within the boundaries of the channel 1.2845-1.3035 and will soon return to its upper border. The next resistance level is 1.3080;

- USD/JPY. Currently, the Japanese currency is supported by falling risk sentiments and rising yields on safe bonds. However, the yen is close to the key support at 105.00, breaking through which is a very difficult task. Just look at the chart for the last 12 weeks. And the battles for this level in 2018-19 left many memorable, non-healing scars on the bodies of bears.
The majority of experts (70%), supported by 75% percent of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1, believe that the pair will still be able to overcome this barrier within two to three weeks and approach the September 21 low 104.00 at least for a time. Supports are 105.00 and 104.45.
As for the remaining 30% of analysts and graphical analysis, they forecast that the dollar will grow, and the USD/JPY pair is expected to break from the horizon of 105.00 and rise first to resistance of 106.00, then to 106.40, and finally to a height of 107.20;

- cryptocurrencies. We noted in the first part of the review that the development of the DeFi market has significantly increased the popularity of ethereum. However, the situation could change dramatically if Joe Biden wins the presidential election. This will cause a new wave of inspections and tightening of control over the financial market, due to which some of the DeFi projects will be closed.
But Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg experts, will only win if Joe Biden wins. Under Donald Trump, the emphasis was on strengthening the dollar and all industries associated with it. Analysts are confident that the new American administration will think more progressively in matters of finance, in view of which the adoption of bitcoin by regulators will accelerate significantly.
The main task of this coin at the moment is to break through the important resistance of $12,000 and gain a foothold above it. It is at this level both in August 2020 and in 2019 that there was an activation of bears and a downward trend reversal. And if the bulls manage to overcome the resistance of sellers, BTC/USD pair have chances to reach the highs of last summer around $13,000-13,750.
According to the calculations of Timothy Peterson, manager of the investment company Cane Island Alternative Advisors, who uses Metclough's law for forecasts, the price of bitcoin with a 90% probability will not fall below $11,000. Moreover, with the same probability it should exceed the $12,000 mark by November 30, 2020.
Metclough's law in application to the crypto market states that the value of bitcoin depends entirely on the number of people using it. And according to Peterson, this approach helped him to successfully forecast the price of BTC at the end of 2018 and in 2019.
Another expert, CEO of analyst firm CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, also believes that the coin will continue to grow, citing the absence of an influx of bitcoins on exchanges as an argument. To assess the volume of BTC transfers to exchanges, CryptoQuant has created its own indicator All Exchanges Inflow Mean, and now it remains in the “safe” zone: the “whales” are in no hurry to get rid of their reserves. And according to Ki Yong Joo's forecasts, bitcoin's rise above $11,500 will not lead to a massive sell-off.
Today, according to chain.info, the five largest cryptocurrency exchanges alone hold almost 2 million BTC coins, which is almost 11% of the total emission. These exchanges can be subjected not only to hacking attacks, but also to attacks by regulators and law enforcement agencies, which will result in the loss or blocking of significant volumes of the main cryptocurrencies. And this, as some experts believe, will cause a shortage of bitcoins in the market and an increase in its price. Although, almost no one believes now that the BTC/USD pair will be able to reach an all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year. Even the probability of it pinning above the $13,000 horizon is only 25%. The probability of falling to $9,000 is exactly the same.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/