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Daily market analysis by NordFX

Discussion in 'Market Forecasts and Analysis' started by Julia NordFX, Jan 25, 2013.

  1. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 01-05, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the pair up. The target for the bulls was to return to the level of 1.1350, and then rise to the zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true, if not by 100%, then by 99%: the pair recorded a local high at the height of 1.1411 on June 25. There followed a slight reversal after that, and, waiting for the results of negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair turned into a sideways trend in the narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, ending the working week at 1.1370;

    - GBP/USD. After jumps of 250 points in the second decade of June, the British currency calmed down a bit, and the past week was relatively calm for it. The pair returned to the corridor 1.2650-1.2765 and finished the week near the strong support/resistance zone 1.2700;

    - USD/JPY. The currency of the G20 host country, Japan, came close to the monthly Pivot Point as well. In the run-up to the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G-20 leaders meeting, demand for safe haven currencies fell slightly, pushing off from the low of the last 5.5 months at 106.77, the pair rose to 107.90 yen for 1 US dollar;

    - Cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin does not stop!”, some exclaim. “It is easily stopped,” others grin. One thing is clear: those who were the first to take the train leaving in the right direction and got off at the right stop can get a huge profit. Those who jumped into the last car or mixed up the trains will receive huge losses.
    Bitcoin grew from $7,500 to $13,765 just in the last three weeks, that is, more than 80%. And then, in just two days, it crashed to $10,390, shrinking 25%. And the next day, again an increase of 15%...
    Interestingly, at the time of the BTC fall by 25%, the capitalization of the crypto market declined by only 13% (from $367.42 billion to $318.61 billion). This suggests that many investors are in no hurry to take profits and get rid of their bitcoins but expect its growth to continue.
    At the same time, analysts warn that one should not expect the same rise from altcoins. This is clearly seen even in the charts of the TOP cryptocurrencies, such as, for example, Litecoin (LTC/USD) or Ripple (XRP/USD). But Ethereum (ETH/USD) quite accurately repeats the dynamics of the reference coin.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Markets do not expect any breakthrough solutions from the work of the G20 summit. The bilateral talks between the leaders of the world's most powerful economies at this forum, and, first of all, the talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump on Saturday June 29, are of much greater interest. Investors are hoping for a decrease in the intensity in the trading opposition of these countries, and if this happens, on Monday trading in the foreign exchange market may open with gaps.
    However, many analysts still look at this event calmly enough and believe that there will be no global truce in this war. Tariffs have affected 10,000 categories of goods from China, and one of the conditions voiced by Beijing, is the cancellation by the United States of all the existing duties. The probability that Trump will go to such a step is close to zero. The ban on cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei is unlikely to be lifted either. The parties will warmly smile at each other, shake hands, but hardly any of them will make serious concessions. Such a zero (or minimal) result of the meeting will allow Trump, on the eve of the presidential election in the United States, to announce his next “victory”, and for China to gain time.
    In such a situation, the US Federal Reserve will become an important figure in this “chess game”, which, against the background of falling global stock indices, will still be forced to ease its monetary policy, which will lead to a weakening of the US currency.
    The weaker US macroeconomic data, which will be released next week, may push the Fed to reduce interest rates. Indicators of the ISM business activity index will be known on July 1 and July 3, and data from the labor market (including NFP) will traditionally be made public on the first Friday of the month, July 05
    A quarter of experts believe that the Fed may cut rates by 25 or even 50 basis points very soon, at its meeting on July 31. The market hopes to get more accurate signals from the speeches of FOMC member Richard Clarida in Finland on July 1 and Fed Vice Chairman John Williams on July 2 in Zurich.
    On the other hand, the political risks and economic problems of the Eurozone have not disappeared. And it is not excluded that the ECB will also undertake an additional package of measures to stimulate the economy, and this will happen at the meeting on July 25.
    It is not possible to give any specific forecast for the upcoming week, since the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. However, if you go to the monthly and medium-term forecasts, 75% of analysts believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through the support in the 1.1100 zone. The following targets for bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800. In the opinion of the remaining 25% experts, the 1.1100 zone is the limit of the fall, and the pair expects growth to the zone of 1.1530-1.1650.
    As for the indicators, most of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored green. However, it is already 20% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is overbought;

    - GBP/USD. British Prime Minister Theresa May gradually fades away, and her most likely successor, Boris Johnson, becomes the main newsmaker on Brexit. He stated last week that, becoming the head of the government, he would do everything possible to preserve the possibility of “hard” withdrawal of his country from the EU, without a deal. According to Johnson, such a threat will strengthen his position in negotiations with the European Union, and for this the politician is even ready to set a recess in the work of Parliament.
    The markets have already reacted to such rhetoric by the pound falling against the euro. As for GBP/USD, here, most experts (65%) expect the British currency to further weaken, and the pair will fall first to 1.2475-1.2500 and then, during July, to January 3, 2019 low, 1.2400.
    35% of analysts still keep optimism and hope for a positive course of negotiations with the EU. In this case, the pair will continue to move up. The immediate goals are 1.2775 and 1.2830, then 1.2930.
    The compromise option in the form of cyclic movement on the channel 1.2500-1.2860 is offered by graphical analysis on D1;

    - USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the most likely outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chairman X on the G20 is the continuation of endless and fruitless talks between the two countries. In such a situation, global stock indices are waiting for a fall, US monetary policy is easing, and the dollar is weakening. Investors will naturally respond to all this by increasing the demand for defensive assets, including the yen.
    However, this not a case for one day, and not even one week. In the meantime, only 40% of experts and D1 graphical analysis vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shake shoulders. Approximately the same situation is with the oscillators and trend indicators on D1.
    Support levels are in zones 106.80-107.00, then 105.50-106.00. Resistances are at 108.85, 109.70 and 110.65;

    - Cryptocurrencies. - Morgan Creek Digital's founder and partner, Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano has predicted the growth of Bitcoin to $100 thousand in his letter addressed to the company's customers. In his opinion, the probability of such a development in the next 2.5 years is 70-75%.
    A similar forecast is given by a well-known trader and analyst Peter Brandt. “Bitcoin is looking at $100,000. The BTC/USD pair is going through the fourth parabolic phase since 2010. No other market has looked like this on logarithmic graphics in my 45 years of trading,” he writes.
    But one of the Fundstrat Global Advisors founders Tom Lee as well as 45 experts believe that Bitcoin expects a powerful correction. And it’s not at all the fact that the fall of BTC / USD by 25% on July 26-27 was exactly that. Analysts do not rule out a decrease in the pair to $7,500-8,000.
    As for the altcoins from the TOP-10, judging by the capitalization graphs, they are gradually losing ground to digital currency No. 1. Thus, it is only Bitcoin that has shown growth over the past 12 months, increasing its share in the total market capitalization from 41% to 66%. The share of the other coins either falls or, at best, remains at the same level.
    [​IMG]

    P.S. As forecasted above, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations on the basis of "mutual respect and equality."


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    https://nordfx.com/
     
  2. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 08-12, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations. However, this result was perceived by the market with moderate optimism. The dollar was strengthening its positions for the whole day of Monday, having dropped the pair almost 100 points. This was followed by a long lull, which could only be broken by the publication of data from the US labor market on Friday. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased more than three times in June compared with May (from 72K to 224K), which allowed the dollar to press the euro further. The pair almost reached the level of 1.1200, after which a small rebound followed, and it ended the trading session at 1.1225;

    - GBP/USD. The main candidate for the post of British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, continues to play the role of "horror" for markets. Johnson's statements regarding the possibility of a "hard" Brexit, without a deal, put pressure on the pound, dropping its quotes to the levels of the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017. It is natural that the positive statistics from the American labor market influenced the dynamics of the pair as well. As a result, the forecast that had been given by most experts last week turned out to be correct. As expected, the pair recorded a local low in the 1.2480 zone, after which it climbed 45 points, where it met the end of the working five-day session;

    - USD/JPY. Recall that a clear forecast for this pair could not be formed a week ago.40% of the experts had voted for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shrugged shoulders. As a result, they were all right: the pair dropped to the level of 107.52 by the middle of the week, and then turned up and on Friday, July 5, it returned to the highs of Monday, July 01. Thus, the dollar was able to win back only about 55 points from the yen in five days, practically keeping within the boundaries of the side corridor of the first half of this June;

    - Cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD updated the two-week low last Tuesday, dropping to $9.725. That is, after an explosive growth of 155% in May-June, Bitcoin lost almost half of what it earned in these two months in just seven days, from June 26 to July 2. There is nothing surprising in this cryptocurrency volatility. And many experts talk about possible corrections of 30% and even 50%. But is it possible to call such fluctuations a “correction”?
    After the fall, Bitcoin turned around and somewhat regained its position, rising to $11,100 by the evening of Friday July 5th. Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), following the benchmark coin, showed similar ups and downs. On average, the weekly range of fluctuations of coins was from 17% to 23%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Market reacted with great attention to the June data on employment in the US. According to many experts, they may influence the decision of the Fed regarding the interest rate reduction. According to forecasts, this could happen at the meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 31. A low NFP would seriously increase the likelihood of a rate cut by 25 or even 50 basis points. But, as mentioned above, NFP has grown more than 3 times. It turns out that the situation in the US economy is not so critical. So why then pursue a policy of easing and give away cheap money?
    Investors will try to hear the answer to this question from the speeches of Fed Chairman J.Powell on July 09, 10 and 11, as well as read in the lines of the minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday July 10.
    The ECB meeting will take place this Wednesday. Markets are also expecting additional measures to stimulate the EU economy from the European regulator. Hour X is scheduled for July 25.
    In whose direction the scales will swing is not yet clear. The easing of the monetary policy by the Fed may weaken the dollar. A similar easing by the ECB will push the euro down. And it can happen at the same time. Just one observation: the yield of 30-year German government bonds showed a decrease, up to a base point, which coincided with the dynamics of the yield of 30-year US bonds.
    By the way, couple of words about Germany. This country will publish a number of macroeconomic data on Monday, July 8, including statistics on the trade balance for May. According to forecasts, it may be positive, which will somewhat strengthen the position of the euro.
    However, despite this, 60% of experts believe that the pair has not yet reached the local bottom and expect to see it in the zone of 1.1100-1.1185. 90% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D 1 agree with them. As for the remaining 40% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair will not be able to break through support in the 1.1185 zone and will return to 1.1275-1.1320. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1400. It should be noted that in the transition from the weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases from 40% to 65%. They are supported by 20% of the oscillators that are now in the oversold zone;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. Despite statements by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, most experts believe that neither on August 1, nor even on September 19 will interest rates on the pound be reduced. Hope on the "soft" Brexit does not fade. This provides a support to the British currency, although minor. Another positive factor for the pound is that this currency has now reached the zone of a three-week low. That is why 60% of experts expect the pair to rebound up and keep in the range of 1.125 0-1.2750. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2570 and 1.2700.
    Supported by the graphical analysis on D1, 40% of analysts adhere to the opposite point of view, according to which the pair should fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, to the zone 1.2405-1.2475.
    As for the indicators, the vast majority of them are red on both H4 and D1. However, already about 15% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold;

    - USD/JPY. Interest in the yen is weakening against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar and the growing attractiveness of risky assets. But it is only 40% of analysts who expect that the pair will be able to overcome resistance in the area of 108.50-108.80 and rise to the echelon of 109.00-109.60. The remaining 60% of experts believe that the pair will move for some time in the side channel 107.55-108.50, attempting to break through its lower boundary, and, if successful, can sink to the horizon 106.75. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, which are in the overbought zone, signal about the possible movement of the pair downwards;

    - Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is positive for the crypto market. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to attract major experienced investors. For example, according to Bloomberg, the billionaire from the “old guard”, 75-year-old Henry R. Kravis, could not resist either and has recently become an investor in the cryptocurrency fund of ParaFi Capital. Interest in Bitcoin has peaked in the past 17 months. The subject has bypassed by the number of requests in Google Donald Trump and Kim Kardashian, who previously occupied the first and second places. Even the Chinese authorities have changed their attitude to cryptocurrencies. In the report of the official information agency of the country, Xinhua, bitcoin was called an asset that has the characteristics of an ideal “safe haven” for investors.
    The optimistic forecast remains the same: $50-100 thousand per BTC coin in the next one and a half years. At the same time, “correction” drop downs are possible, reaching 50 percent or more. In the meantime, 30% of experts say that the BTC/USD pair may drop to support $9,200, 40% expect it to rise to a height of $14,000, and 30% talk about lateral movement in the channel $9,725-12,200.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  3. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 15-19, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1100-1.1185 as a local bottom. As for the remaining 40%, in their opinion, support 1.1185 should have become an insurmountable obstacle, after which analysts had expected the pair to return to {1level 1.1275-1.1320. That's exactly what happened: the bottom was fixed at 1.1190, after which the pair turned around and went up, reaching the height of 1.1285 at the maximum. Then there was a bounce, and the pair completed the five-day week at the Pivot Point level of the first half of summer,1.1270;

    - GBP/USD. The line graph of the pair on D1 resembles a parabola, which, in general, reflects the two main forecasts of experts. 40% of them expected the pair to fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, and it dropped to 1.2438. And then, as other analysts expected, the pair headed north, where it was stopped by resistance 1.2575;

    - USD/JPY. 40% of analysts hoped that the pair would be able to overcome the resistance of 108.80 and rise to the level 109.00-109.60. It seemed that this forecast was about to come true. However, the pair did not manage to touch the horizon of 109.00: not gaining just a couple of points, it collapsed down and returned to the strong support of June-July 2019 in the zone 107.85;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's extremely high volatility continues to keep investors and traders in constant tension, since fluctuations of 10-15-20% can not only enrich, but also ruin anyone in a short time. The reason, first of all, is the thin market. It is so thin that any fixation of profits by a major player, any more or less loud news, causes serious jumps in the rate.
    For example, the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that Facebook should not be allow ed to launch its Libra cryptocurrency until the company settles all issues with regulatory authorities, turned the BTC/USD quotes down by 15% on Wednesday. Although it would seem, bitcoin should only be better in the absence of such a powerful competitor as Libra. As a result, the upward trend of the beginning of the week was interrupted and the pair returned to July 7 values in the $11,000-11,850 zone.
    The stress tolerance of altcoins was significantly lower than that of the basic cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 7% in seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) lost 11%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) lost 13%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by expectations of a coming decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and easing of the ECB’s monetary policy. In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scale swing?
    There is a high risk of slowing economic growth noted in the latest protocol of the European regulator. And if the situation does not improve in the near future (and why should it improve?), The ECB is ready to lower interest rates and increase bond purchases under the QE program. It is not necessary that this will be announced on July 25, however, the ECB meeting scheduled for this day should nevertheless bring some clarity.
    It is possible that the issue of monetary policy easing, but this time in the United States, will also be addressed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak on Tuesday, July 16 at a conference in Paris. He will read a report on the features of monetary policy in the post-crisis era there, and the tonality of this report can have a strong influence on the dollar rate.
    Another important event that could affect the dollar pairs will be the publication of data on the growth rate of China's GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019. This will take place on Monday, July 15, and many experts expect a rather strong slowdown in the economic growth of the Middle Kingdom, which can provide serious support to the US currency.
    As for trend indicators and oscillators, they are in antiphase on H4 and D1: if most of them are green in H4, the picture is the opposite on the day time frame.
    The forecasts of the majority (65%) of experts are also painted red, they expect further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the zone of 1.1150-1.1200. The next target of the bears is the zone 1.1100-1.1115. As for the bulls, they see their goal in raising the pair to tier 1.1350-1.1410;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. Statistics on the labor market, wage growth rates and unemployment rates in the UK will be published on Tuesday, July 16. And on Wednesday, July 17, we will know the data on inflation. But experts expect no surprises from either of them.
    At the moment, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and most of the indicators on D1, expect the pound to test support 1.2440 again and, if successful, drop to the low of January 3, 2019 at the level of 1.2405.
    The remaining 40% of experts advise to open positions on the buy. There are two main arguments: the increase in the spread of government bonds profitability in the UK and the USA, and the rising oil prices. Both of these factors should push the pound up.The nearest resistance is 1.2755, the next is 1.2825;

    - USD / JPY. It is known that this pair has a strong correlation with the US stock market, and on the eve of the Dow Jones Industrial Average - for the first time in history! - Overcame the mark of 27.000 and reached last Friday the mark of 27.330. The pair may show growth to the 108.50-109.00 zone against this background. The next target is 109.65. However, only 30% of analysts voted for such a scenario. The majority of experts (70%), with the support of 90% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to decline to June lows around 106.75-107.00.
    As for the graphical analysis on D1, it draws the lateral movement of the pair in the channel 107.70-109.00 with the predominance of bullish moods;

    - Cryptocurrencies. If on H4 and D1 time frames we observe lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with gradual consolidation around $ 11,500-12,000 for the third week, the picture looks much more optimistic on W1 and MN: the uptrend is in full swing.
    Positive predictions are made by many experts. For example, it was for the first time that the American rating agency Weiss Ratings assigned A-grade to Bitcoin, stressing that at the moment the potential benefits of investing in the first cryptocurrency exceed the risks. And Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko suggested that the current market cycle could raise the price of Bitcoin to a new historical high of $30,000. Bitcoin mining is also growing. Researchers at Cambridge University have shown that today this process consumes more electricity than such countries as Switzerland or Kuwait. However, no one can predict yet at what point a new jump will occur, and experts' forecasts for the upcoming week do not go beyond the range of $9,725-13,765.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  4. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 22 - 26, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Recall that the majority (65%) of experts expected further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the 1.1150-1.1200 zone. And the pair went down, reaching the level of 1.1200 on the night of July 16-17. However, the strength of the bears dried up there and, two days later, the bulls returned the pair to where it started on Monday July 15, to the level of 1.1285. Thus, for the second week in a row, the pair is in a fairly narrow side channel, limiting its fluctuations to the boundaries of 1.1190 and 1.1285. The reason for such a lull (perhaps before the storm) is not the summer holidays of investors, but their expectation of the ECB meeting on Thursday July 25, at which the European regulator may decide to lower the interest rate;

    - GBP/USD. If you look at the D1 chart, you can say that the pound experienced another technical correction last week. The reason for this was strong data on wages and retail sales in the UK. But on the whole, everything was developing exactly as the majority (60%) of the experts had supposed. Being in a downtrend since mid-March, the pair first tested the support in the 1.2440 zone again, then, breaking through it, reached the January 3, 2019.low, 1.2405, after which it dropped another 25 points and, groping the bottom at the level of 1.2380, turned up. As part of the correction, the pair rose by almost 180 points, and ended the week in the 1.2500 zone;

    - USD/JPY. In general, the dynamics of the pair corresponded to analysts' forecasts. However, volatility was slightly lower than expected. So, against the background of the strong growth of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, a third of the experts waited from the pair to rise to the zone 108.50-109.00 at the beginning of the week. However, the bulls managed to raise it only to the height of 108.37. After that, the initiative went to the bears and, as predicted by 70% of analysts, the pair went south - to the lows of June around of 106.75-107.00. But here it missed the target by some 20 points as well. The fall stopped at 107.20. This was followed by another trend reversal, and the pair met the end of the week at around 107.70;

    - Cryptocurrencies. US authorities have literally turned against Facebook's intentions to launch its cryptocurrency Libra. Moreover, the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives has prepared a bill to ban the release of cryptocurrencies not only by Facebook, but also by any other large companies with annual profits above $25 billion (for example, Google). If Trump signs this law, violators will pay a fine of $1 million per day. And although Facebook’s profit from Libra may be higher than this amount, the company may refuse this project, not wanting to aggravate relations with the authorities.
    Against this background, Bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a four-week low at around $9.080. True, then there was a rebound upwards, as a result of which the losses of the BTC/USD pair decreased and amounted to about 11% in seven days.
    Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD) went down as well. But Litecoin (LTC/USD) was able to return to its original values in the second half of the week: on the eve of the halving in August, investors found this altcoin undervalued and began buying it.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by the expectations of a quick decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. As was said, the market does not exclude that the European regulator will announce this already next Thursday, on July 25th. Although many experts believe that until the end of September the rate will remain at the same level, that is, zero. In the first case, the pair can go down sharply. In the second case, sharp fluctuations in the rate are not likely to be expected. Moreover, despite the slowdown in economic growth, the situation in the Eurozone is not so bad: manufacturers' prices are still growing, and the current operations surplus in June was almost €30 billion (compared with €22.5 billion in April). And this despite the trade wars!
    It is interesting to see what the US will do in this situation? President Trump was outraged in his Twitter saying that the quantitative easing policy by the ECB and the depreciation of the euro against the dollar will allow the EU to "unfairly easier compete with the United States." "Europe is getting away with it for years - along with China and others!”, Trump wrote, which strengthened investors' expectations regarding the devaluation of the dollar and the rate cut by the Fed.
    In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scales swing? There are more questions than answers. Moreover, the statements of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin are directly opposed to what Trump says and writes. So, recently, after the meeting of G7 finance ministers in France, Mnuchin assured journalists that there was no change in the policy of a strong dollar at the moment.
    In the meantime, the absolute majority of experts - 75%! - expect the pair to rise to the height of 1.1350-1.1415. The nearest resistance is 1.1285.
    The remaining 25% of analysts and 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 strongly disagree with them. They all expect the pair to decline to the spring lows in the area of 1.1100-1.1115.
    As for the events that may affect the formation of short-term trends, this week we can note the release of the following data: July 23 - results of a study of bank lending in the Eurozone, July 24 - indicators of Markit business index in Germany and the Eurozone, and annual data on US GDP, which will see the light on Friday July 26th.

    - GBP/USD. On Tuesday, the minutes of the UK Financial Policy Committee meeting will be published. However, this rather important document is unlikely to be noticed by the market against the background of another event that will also happen on this day. On July 23, the British Conservative Party, after the counting of votes, will announce the name of the new prime minister. Recall that there are two candidates for this position: the former mayor of London and the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, and the current foreign minister, Jeremy Hunt. And the fate of Brexit depends on who of them will occupy this post - how will the process of leaving the EU go, whether it will be completed and under what conditions.
    Most analysts (65%) expect the pound to strengthen and the pair to grow to the zone of 1.2650-1.2750. The nearest resistance is 1.2575. The remaining 35% of experts believe that before it goes up, the pair should still return to the zone 1.2380-1.2405. Graphic analysis on D1 takes an even more radical position. According to his forecast, the pair can break through support in the 1.2400 zone and drop another 200 points within two weeks;

    - USD/JPY. For this pair, graphical analysis on D1 draws first a movement in the range of 106.75-108.35, and then rising to the height of 109.00. However, only 40% of experts agree with this forecast, their opinion is based on recently published macroeconomic statistics.
    Recall that the purpose of the Bank of Japan is the inflation rate of 2%. However, its achievement can only be dreamed of. The inflation in June 2019 turned out to be exactly the same as a year ago and was only 0.7%. In such a situation, the Japanese regulator may start thinking about lowering the interest rate, as their colleagues in the Asia-Pacific region have already done - Australia, India, Indonesia and South Korea.
    The remaining 60% of analysts believe such a move by the Bank of Japan is unlikely. In their opinion, the probability of a decrease in the dollar rate at the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 31 is significantly higher. In this case, the pair can not only descend to the horizon of 106.75, but also, breaking through it, rush to the January 2019 low in the zone 105.00. 90% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on D1 are siding with the bears;
    [​IMG]

    - Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, July 19, the BTC/USD pair was in the area of a strong four-week support level (and now resistance level already) $10,500. And although it is impossible at the moment to formulate any kind of definite opinion, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%) vote for the growth of the pair.
    In this case, problems of Facebook, Google and other large companies with the release of their own altcoins can play into the hands of bitcoin. Unlike Libra, bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency, and therefore the US government will not be able to blame anyone about its release and regulation anyone. Moreover, the conspiracy theorism has again surfaced that the patronage of bitcoin is none other than the US Treasury, which will do everything possible to eliminate the competitors of this reference digital asset.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  5. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 05 - 09, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them.
    On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points).
    The main reason for the growth of the American currency was the comment by Jerome Powell, in which the Fed chief said that this rate cut by 25 basis points would not necessarily mark the beginning of a consistent easing policy. Indirectly, his words were confirmed by the fact that the rate was reduced by only 0.25%, and not by 0.50%, and two FOMC members voted against any reduction.
    Thus, the Federal Reserve was the least “soft” against the background of the central banks of other countries pursuing a policy of easing, which led to a short-term growth of the dollar.
    The second planned event was the release of statistics on the US labor market. As predicted, NFP fell slightly (from 193K to 164K), to which the market reacted rather sluggishly, especially since the main newsmaker at the end of the week was - unexpected for many! - Donald Trump. (Well, who can do without him!)
    For a start, the US president called Powell's behavior a betrayal, and then put an end to the fragile truce in the US-China trade war, announcing the introduction of a 10% duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion on September 1. Such a move by Trump sharply increased the chances further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, in spite of Powell's statements. Thus, the probability of the next rate reduction in September increased from 64% to 92%, in December - from 42% to 75%.
    The threat of a new round of hostilities in the war with China brought down the American stock market, and investors once again turned their attention to a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen, which strengthened against the dollar by 275 points at the end of the week;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Without a doubt, Bitcoin was, is and will be the digital currency number 1, which reigns at the crypto market, making up the bulk of its capitalization and determining the trends and quotes of the vast majority of altcoins. And although sometimes there are voices offering to give, for example, Ethereum the status of a full-fledged coin, placing it next to Bitcoin, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
    As for the news background, which often defines a particular trend, it has recently become quite ambiguous. Thus, the largest social network Facebook has declared that the launch of the project of its own digital currency Libra may be canceled due to significant pressure from the regulator, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
    On the one hand, it seems to be good for Bitcoin: there will be one strong competitor less. On the other hand, after crushing Libra, the authorities can firmly take on the crypto market as a whole. Calls on this matter do not stop for a minute. For example, The United States Revenue Service (IRS) has recently sent letters to more than 10 thousand investors demanding to include information about cryptocurrency assets in their tax return, otherwise violators will be fined.
    In the meantime, the pair BTC/USD continues to move in the side channel, trying to overcome the resistance of $10,500. Major altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), are also moving in a sideways trend with low volatility. It can be assumed that the main reason for such calm is the middle of summer, when investors, legislators, and even tax inspectors go on vacation. Although it may be just a lull before the next storm.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The pair in its fall is now close to Pivot Point 2015-2016. And, although the rebound up on Friday, August 02, colored the indicators on H4 in a neutral gray color, 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1 still insist on the continuation of the downward trend. 65% of experts agree that the American currency still has potential for growth, and it will continue to put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal for the pair is 1.0950, the next one is 100 points lower.
    At the moment, only 35% of analysts turned out to side with the bulls, however, in anticipation of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, when moving to the medium-term forecast, their number rises to 55%.
    If we turn to the indications of graphical analysis, it draws first the movement of the pair in the range of 1.1070-1.1165 on H4, and then its growth to the horizon of 1.1225. The next resistance is at 1.1285;

    - GBP/USD. Since April 2018, the British currency weakened against the US dollar by 2,300 points. The last days did not become an exception: the pound lost 430 points since July 25. The reason is the same, Brexit. The coming to power of Boris Johnson and his promise to part with the EU on October 31 on a “tough” scenario make investors nervous and the pound fall.
    75% of experts expect to see the pair in the 1.2000 zone soon. And if it manages to break through this support, it will be able to “fly” down another 100-150 points. This development is supported by 95% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators on D1.
    The remaining 10% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. A respite is also expected by graphical analysis on D1 and by 25% of analysts, according to whom the pair can go to a side movement in the channel 1.2100-1.2250 for a while. In the case of any positive news regarding Brexit, growth of the pair to the level of 1.2375 is not excluded.
    As for the medium-term forecast, according to 70% of analysts, the Bank of England will eventually be forced to acknowledge the serious risks of a “tough” exit from the EU and sharply tighten monetary policy. Thus, it will be the only large central bank to raise interest rates, which should lead to an increase in quotations of the British currency and their rise above the level of 1.2800. However, this can happen only when at least the basic conditions for the British exit from the EC become known;

    - USD/JPY. The escalation of trade confrontation between the United States and China and the reduction in the interest rate on the US dollar increase the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. Therefore, 60% of analysts expect the pair to continue to decline in an effort to reach the January 2019 low around 105.00. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on D1 also look to the south. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. Resistance levels are 107.80, 109.00 and 110.00;
    [​IMG]

    - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin holders try to find any arguments to push it up. Any reasons are suitable for this, even the Fed's interest rate cut: having lost interest in the dollar, investors will start investing in more profitable and risky assets, like Bitcoin. Although, if you think about it, what prevented them from doing so before? The rate cut by 0.25% is a very weak argument in this case.
    Billionaire and head of the crypto-bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novograz said in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin will rise again to the historical maximum of $20 thousand per unit before the end of this year. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the course of bidding quotations may drop to $8,500 for 1 BTC. And popular presenter Joe Kernen has announced on CNBC television channel the rise of BTC to $55,000. In May 2020, bitcoin mining will be halved, which, in his opinion, should lead to a rapid increase in the value of the coin, thanks to its aggressive purchases before halving.
    As for short-term forecasts, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached $10,650 on August 2, it will be possible to talk about the transition to sustainable growth only after the BTC/USD pair has confidently crossed the $11,000 mark. In the meantime, experts are divided into two equal camps. But all of them, both optimists and pessimists, call the horizon $10,000 as a Pivot Point.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  6. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 12-16, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - USD/EUR. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market.
    Uncertainty factors are many.
    Firstly, this is the beginning of another round in the US-China trade war. Introducing 10 percent duties on the next group of Chinese goods from September 1, the US president did not stop there, he called China “currency manipulator” and is planning to postpone the issuance of licenses for US companies to trade with Huawei.
    In addition to the external war, Trump has to wage an internal war, with his own Fed. He wrote in his Twitter on Thursday August 08: “Our companies are the greatest in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong at every step of the way...". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step away from the recession, for which Trump blames the strong dollar. “The Fed’s high interest rates,” he writes, “in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers...to compete on a level playing field.”
    So, the market expects steps from the US leadership aimed at preventing an industrial downturn. But the ECB is expected to take the same steps, since the Eurozone economy, undermined by economic wars and political instability within the EU, is not in the best condition either, and the yield of German bonds have reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro is a double-edged sword. By stimulating industrial growth, this step will create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, lowering the rate on euro deposits to -0.5% will increase banks' expenses associated with servicing negative rates by 60%.
    Investors are not happy with the ongoing drop in oil prices either. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of efforts to maintain the price of “black gold” at least at the current level, but the results of these steps remain doubtful;

    - GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Most experts had expected a decline on both of these pairs. And if you look at the results of the week, the forecast turned out to be correct on the whole, although not one of them reached its goals. Thus, 75% of analysts expected to see GBP/USD around 1.2000, but the week low was fixed slightly higher, at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points.

    - As for USD/JPY, unlike the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) had expected the pair to be able to reach the January 2019 low at around 105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon of 105.40 (minus 120 points during the week) , after which there was a rebound upwards, and the pair completed the five-day period at 105.65;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Former CEO of Google and Facebook, Avichal Garg, is sure that the real dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is much higher than the figure published by cryptocurrency services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garg, it is necessary to revise the current measurement standards, since now they take into account the huge number of altcoins with zero liquidity. And it is not at all excluded that soon we will see the share of bitcoin exceed the mark of 80%, or even 90%. An argument in favor of this development is that BTC is gradually becoming a very popular safe haven asset. “Bitcoin has proven to be a hedge against global risks, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and a negative correlation with the stock markets,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and senior analyst at Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. And, looking at the charts of the last week, one cannot disagree with him. Usually, top altcoins repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC/USD pair has shown steady growth, adding about $1,500 during the week and gaining a foothold in the $11,550-12,120 zone, the main altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), finished the week in the red zone. Although, of course, it is too early to bury them completely. According to some experts, several alternative cryptocurrencies (for example, Ethereum) can become stand-alone blockchains, ceasing to be considered altcoins. The rest will go into oblivion as unnecessary.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. If on H4 both trend indicators and oscillators are still pointing north, D1 has a completely different picture: about half of the indicators are colored red, and another 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 and 60% of experts sided with the bears as well, they expect that, having pushed off the resistance of 1.1200, the pair will once again test support in the zone of 1.1025. In their opinion, the euro quotes at 1.1200 are now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the fragile balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and a new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can be disturbed even by weak data on GDP growth in the Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday, August 14.
    A reduction in the state budget deficit and positive data on inflation in the USA can also play a role in strengthening the dollar. What these numbers will actually be will be announced on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14, respectively.
    The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the growth of the pair to the zone 1.1275-1.1345. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and a further decline in interest rates in the United States. Thus, Wall Street Journal analysts estimate the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 33.6% (a year ago it was18.3%), which is the highest rate since 2011. And predicting a change in the rate, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning, August 13, the UK will present a portion of labor market data that is expected to be neutral at best and weak at worst. As for inflation, its indicators, which will be released on August 14, are likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts are not expecting any significant changes in the pound this week, and therefore their forecast can be classified as neutral.
    As for the technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. Graphical analysis also Indicates to a continued fall of the pair. Moreover, it is already 25% of the oscillators that indicate overselling of the pair, which is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction.
    Support Levels: January 2017 lows - 1.1985 and October 2016 lows - 1.1945. Resistance Levels: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525;

    - USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the desire of investors to shelter their capital in quiet harbors continues to grow. And 35% of analysts are sure that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of such a harbor, and therefore the fall of the pair will continue until the January 3, 2019 low at the level of 105.00. Next support is March 2018 low 104.60. Graphical analysis on Н4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario.
    30% of the experts were not able to give a forecast, and the remaining 35%, together with a graphical analysis on D1, voted for the trend to reverse upward and the pair to rise to the zone 107.00-108.00. Such a scenario is also supported by 15% of the oscillators, giving signals of the pair being oversold.
    It should be noted that in the transition from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases sharply, from 35% to 65%, and the height of 109.00 is called the main goal;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee is confident that, having become, along with yen and gold, a safe haven asset, Bitcoin will be able to rise to $20,000. A similar point of view has been expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek. According to him, central banks will begin to massively buy bitcoins in the near future in order to hedge dollar risks, which appeared against the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. The “epidemic” of lowering interest rate regulators will positively affect the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. Another strength of Bitcoin is its projected emission and limited supply.
    The reference cryptocurrency has grown by 93% in three months and now its immediate task is to update the highs of June 2019 in the $14,000 zone. More than 70% of experts agree with this forecast, although, in their opinion, this could happen by the end of August. In the next week, the pair will perhaps continue to move along the horizon of $12,000.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  7. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 19 - 23, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065.
    The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly.
    In addition, not the best economic statistics from Germany and China and the unexpected growth in US retail sales played in favor of the dollar. The market had been expecting this indicator to decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%.

    - GBP/USD. Last week, analysts did not expect any significant changes in the British pound, so their forecast was classified as neutral. As for technical analysis, 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 gave signals about the overselling of the pair, which, as practice shows, is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. This was what happened: having rebounded from the level of 1.2015, the pair went north, fixing the week’s high at 1.2175 on Friday. The final five-day chord sounded in the 1.2140 zone, which can be called the Pivot Point of the first week of August;

    - USD/JPY. A third of analysts, supported by 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, were sure that the Japanese currency would continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from currency storms, and therefore the pair would continue to fall to the low of January 3, 2019. at the level of 105.00. That was what happened, and it was already on Monday, August 12, that the pair approached this mark.
    Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 had voted for the trend to turn up and lift the pair to the height of 107.00, which it reached the next day, on Tuesday, August 13.
    The ending of the week satisfied the remaining third of specialists, who had taken a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, you can see that the pair moved to the side channel 105.00–107.00 and completed the working session closer to its center, at 106.35. Thus, all three scenarios can be considered fulfilled - bearish, bullish and neutral;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Crypto enthusiasts, such as Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, continue to attempt to raise Bitcoin status, claiming it has already become a safe haven asset, along with gold or the Japanese yen. And here it is questionable, what kind of refuge it is, if only from August 08 to 15 this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500?
    With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling.
    If you look at the dynamics of the altcoin market, starting from the peak on June 26, its capitalization fell from $124 to $79 billion, that is, more than 36%. Losses of bitcoin are twice lower :18% (drop from $229 to $187 billion). Accordingly, investors are gradually losing interest even in top coins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC), switching their attention to bitcoin (BTC), whose market share has already exceeded 70%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. On one European scale, there is a slowdown in the economic growth of the EU’s most important partner - China, weak economic performance in Germany, problems of Italy and Brexit. On the other, the American one, macro statistics from the United States are pleasing to the eye and the Fed’s leadership claims that the American economy is on a solid foundation and that it doesn’t fear any trade wars. It would seem that the answer to the question on which side the advantage should be is clear: on the side of the dollar. That is exactly what 65% of experts believe, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate goal is support in the zone 1.1000–1.1025, after breaking through which there will be only 1000 points to 1: 1 parity. At the current rate of decline, it may take a little over a year to overcome this distance. (Recall that the pair was already dropping to the level of 1.0350 in December 2016).
    However, if you imagine other scales, everything becomes not so obvious. So, on one, European, scale there is the decrease in the euro interest rate announced by Olli Rehn for September and the resuscitation of the QE program. And on the US scale - the expectation of a recession in the US economy, Donald Trump's discontent with the actions of the Fed and, as a result, a possible reduction in the dollar rate by the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the US president, a trend reversal upward and the pair's rise to marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded. And if in the near future it is 35% of analysts who do not exclude such an opportunity, in the medium term their number increases to 55%.
    According to experts, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, August 21 and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week, should give some clarity about the US financial policy. In addition, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22, is of great interest;

    - GBP/USD. A rather interesting situation has developed in the UK. On the one hand, production is declining, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. On the other hand, instead of the retail sales drop of 0.3% expected in July, their growth by 0.2% was noted. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fearing the consequences of Brexit, the country's residents prefer shopping rather than financial savings.
    It is not clear how long this situation will last. We need to wait for the steps of the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the reaction of the British Parliament to them. Until this happens, the respite that the pair has taken in its fall will, according to the majority (65%) of experts, continue, and the pair will stay in the side channel 1.2000–1.2200. The closest support level is 1.2050, resistance is 1.2175.
    As for the graphic analysis, both on H4 and D1, after several days of movement in the side corridor, it predicts the pair will fall to the October 2016 low in the zone 1.1900–1.1940;

    - USD/JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar much: investors still strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-Chinese trade war. So, the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial haven. The expectation of a coming recession in the US economy and lower interest rates by the US Federal Reserve also plays against the dollar. Added to this is a drop in yields on 10-year US bonds, which have already fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities has fallen below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the Japanese currency and a decrease in the pair. However, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 are inclined to believe that the pair will stay in the side channel 105.00–107.00 for at least another week. But in the future, most of them (60%) expect not a fall, but, on the contrary, that the dollar will strengthen, and the pair will rise to the zone of 108.50-109.00. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this forecast;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Giving long-term forecasts is a blessing. And the more distant the forecast, the better. If it does not come true, it's okay: everyone forgot about it a long time ago. And if the forecast is correct, then you can remind about yourself.
    For example, Tim Draper, the investor and head of Draper Associates, has predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000, possibly at the end of 2022, or maybe at the beginning of 2023. Well, only three years are left to wait.
    If we talk about more near forecasts, famous cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten is confident that Bitcoin will reach the $15,000 mark in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right, and a trend reversal is just around the corner, but so far there are no clear signs to buy, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is still at the “Fear” mark.
    [​IMG]


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  8. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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  9. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 26 - 30, 2019


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The meeting of G7 leaders on August 24-24 is among the events of the end of summer. It cannot be ignored. However, it is unlikely that the results of these negotiations of the heads of the G7 countries will set any definite trends in the foreign exchange market. Most likely, the leaders will simply urge the heads of their central banks to respond more actively to external and internal economic threats. Investors are much more worried about the euro interest rate cut announced for September and the European Central Bank’s reanimation of the QE program, as well as when and in what amount the Fed will lower the interest rate.
    After Jerome Powell's performance on the evening of August 23 and the sharp rise of the pair, it is natural that both the graphical analysis and most of the indicators on H4 look up. However, the picture is completely different on D1: 70% of the trend indicators turned red, and among the oscillators, either red or neutral gray prevail. At the same time, 10% of them are already signaling the pair is overbought.
    Strengthening of the dollar and the pair's return to the August lows of 1.1025-1.1050 are also expected by 65% of analysts. An alternative point of view is represented by the remaining 35% of experts, according to whom the pair may well reach zone 1.1200-1.1250. The next goal is 100 points higher;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. No less active than Brexit, the world discusses the fact that during the meeting with French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron, the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson put his feet on the coffee table. Macron has been and remains one of the most consistent supporters of the EU’s tough stance on relations with Britain. And maybe his British colleague wanted to show in this way that France’s position, to put it mildly, doesn’t really bother him?
    Of course, Merkel, Macron, and Johnson continue contacts during the G7 meeting, but even after them the probability of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement remains as high as before. That is why 70% of experts, in full agreement with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, expect a continuation of the downtrend and a decrease of the pair to the August 12 low - 1.2015. The closest resistance zone is 1.2280-1.2320, support is in the areas of 1.2180-1.2200 and 1.2075-1.2100.
    30% of analysts continue to remain on the side of the bulls, believing that the good news regarding the Brexit agreement has not yet ended, and the pair will still be able to rise to the zone 1.2415-1.2520. More than 70% of indicators support this scenario. However, 15% of the oscillators on D1 are already signalizing the pair is overbought;

    - USD/JPY. Experts (70%) expect the strengthening of the dollar against the yen as well. Despite the fact that the Japanese currency remains, along with the Swiss franc, the most popular safe haven currency, many major investors begin to fix short positions, converting their capitals to the gold.
    The words of Bank of Japan representative Sayuri Shirai who said on Thursday August 22 that in order to counter the impending recession, the Bank allows a further reduction in the interest rate, which is already negative and amounts to minus 0.1%, played against the yen as well.
    The immediate goal of the bulls is to return to the zone 106.20-106.70, then breakdown and consolidation above the level of 107.00. As for the bears (30%), they, with the support of 90% of the indicators on D1, will try to break the bottom in the zone of 105.00 and move the pair to the March 2018 low 104.60;

    - Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is quite favorable: Bank of America plans to patent a system for the safe storage of digital assets. Another US bank, Silvergate, has announced plans to launch a new product - loans issued against cryptocurrencies. - A study by Nobl Insurance showed that the cryptocurrency market has grown by 48% from 2018 to 2019 and will continue to expand over the next 12 months.
    There is one more interesting piece of news. According to a statement from US economist Jim Rickards, Russia and China are working together to create their own cryptocurrency, which will be tied to gold. And that is precisely why, in his opinion, they have been so actively buying up this precious metal in recent years.
    One can argue with Rickards. First, why should Russia and China issue a joint cryptocurrency? Each of these countries may well release their own cryptocurrency. And secondly, they replenish their gold reserves, most likely, not for the sake of issuing any digital coins, but in order to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.
    As for the forecast, crypto enthusiasts, as usual, make every effort to push bitcoin up. This time, famous trader Alex Kruger made a prophetic prediction. According to him, the cost of bitcoin will soon begin to increase and reach 50 thousand dollars by the end of 2021. But at the same time, Kruger added that this will happen ... only if the coin now holds the positions above 10 thousand dollars. Well, what can one say to this?
    The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has recently dropped to the Extreme Fear mark. 70% of analysts are looking south, but nevertheless they accurately mark the threshold of the fall with a zone of $9,000-9,500. It is possible that, pushing off from this support, Bitcoin will begin a new take-off to the $12,000 and $20,000 marks. But now it’s too early to talk about it and we need to wait for clear signals.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  10. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 02 - 06, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As we expected, the negotiations of the G7 countries on August 24-26 did not affect the foreign exchange market in any way. But it was influenced by many other factors that, contrary to the wishes of Donald Trump, further strengthened the American dollar. We will mention only a few of them. First, it is the conciliatory rhetoric of the USA and China, which gave hope for a trade agreement. Further, there was an increase in personal consumption expenditures in the United States (4.7% instead of the forecast 4.3%) along with an increase in the yield of US treasury bonds and stock indices. If we add to this the slowdown in inflation in Germany and the statement of the future Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on possible measures to support the Eurozone economy (QE), we get the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by almost 200 points.
    Most experts expected the euro to weaken and the pair to decline, indicating August lows at 1.1025 as a target. However, the collapse of data on retail sales in Germany (a fall of 2.1% instead of the expected 1.3%) pushed the pair even lower, to around 1.0960, followed by a slight rebound, and the pair ended the week at 1.0990;

    - GBP/USD. Supported by graphical analysis, 70% of analysts sided with the bears last week, expecting further weakening of the British currency. Which is what was happening as the bad news regarding Brexit was coming out. The Parliament prorogation by the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson not only caused a wave of discontent among the country's residents, but even affected the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which fell in anticipation of a hard UK exit from the EU. According to Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney, “Great Britain has no credible proposals for Brexit.” As a result, the GBP/USD pair lost about 130 points over the week, dropping to the level of 1.2165;

    - USD/JPY. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening, August 23, pushed the pair down sharply, and, as a result of a gap in its fall, it reached 104.45 on Monday August 26. However, after that, as the vast majority of analysts expected (70%), against the backdrop of Trump's statements about productive “telephone conversations” with China, the dollar began to regain its position, reaching a strong resistance zone 106.60-106.70 on Thursday. As for the end of the five-day period, the pair completed it at the level of 106.25;

    - Cryptocurrencies. You cannot name the situation in this market happy, which, in fact, is fully consistent with our forecasts. Recall that two weeks ago, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index dropped to Extreme Fear, and 70% of analysts gave a negative forecast for the BTC/USD pair, expecting it to fall to the $9,000-9,500 zone. This is exactly what happened: on Thursday, August 29, Bitcoin groped for a local bottom at $9.355.
    If you keep in mind the news background, there is no visible reason for such a fall. And we can assume that in the absence of demand, sellers began to sharply reduce prices, hoping to attract new buyers.
    Indeed, the situation with bitcoin is not joyful, but it is still difficult to call it dramatic, relying on support in the $9,100 zone, the pair have not updated the July lows. The situation with altcoins, whose popularity is inexorably declining, looks much more tragic. Litecoin (LTC/USD) returned to the level of March 2019, having dried out by 56% over the past 10 weeks. Losses of Ripple (XRP/USD) over the same period amounted to 50%, and it is trading now at the prices of two years ago. And the leading altcoin, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 54%. As for the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole, it decreased by about 32% over the indicated 10 weeks, from $367 billion to $250 billion.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Despite the peaceful statements by the US president and the Chinese leadership last week, Trump’s decision to raise tariffs from September 1 has not been canceled. There was only his promise to postpone this increase until December 15. So, the end of the trade war between these countries is not at all a fact. It is also doubtful whose mitigation policy, the ECB's or the Fed's, will be softer. Investors are hoping to get a part of the answer to this question from the speeches of Christine Lagarde on Tuesday September 3 and Jerome Powell on Friday September 6.
    You should also pay attention to the value of the PMI Caixin index in China's manufacturing sector, which reflects the degree of business confidence in the economy of this country and which will be published on Monday 02 September. Data on business activity (ISM) in the US will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, and on Friday, data on the American labor market will traditionally be released. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) may slightly decrease, from 164K to 159K, which is unlikely to have a strong impact on the dollar.
    Based on the forecast data, most analysts (55%) expect EUR/USD to move sideways along the 1.1000 level at 1.0960-1.1050 next week. 25%, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators, expect that the pair will be able to break through support 1.0960 on its way to parity and fall to the zone 1.0875-1.0925. The remaining 20% believe that the pair is for a correction and a rise to the level of 1.1250. This scenario is supported by 10% of oscillators on D1, giving signals about it being oversold. It should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the strengthening of the euro increases to 60%. At the same time, analysts are waiting for the pair to return to the levels of 1.1400-1.1500;

    - GBP/USD. At present, the three-month pound volatility against the US dollar is about 14%. It was so high for the last time at the moment when Theresa May tried to ratify the agreement with the EU in the British Parliament. Now its source is May's successor Boris Johnson and the expectation of a hard Brexit.
    In the current situation, as before, most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4 are the readings of 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, they suggest that the pair will test again the August 12, 2019 low. - 1.2015. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates a possible fall of the pair even further - to the low of October 2016, 1.1945. The nearest support is 1.1260;
    The remaining 40% of analysts, along with 10% of the oscillators, believe that the pair is already oversold and expect it to return to the range 1.2420-1.2550. Their forecast is reinforced by the hope of a positive course of negotiations with the EU on Brexit;

    - USD/JPY. Japan's weak economic statistics, as well as some lull in the trade war between China and the United States, have led to a dropping interest in the yen. That is why 70% of experts expect further growth of the pair to the level of 107.00-107.70. The next target, according to the graphical analysis on D1, is 108.75.
    As for the opposite point of view, the argument of the bears is that the spread on the yield of 10-year bonds in Japan and the United States has decreased by about 135 points since November 2018, and the yen has strengthened against the dollar by 7% (from 114.5 to 106.00). And this strong trend may well continue. The immediate task is to overcome the support of 104.80. After which, in the medium term, the Japanese currency may even reach a significant level of 100.00;

    - Cryptocurrencies. An unexpected statement was made by the Head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, speaking at an economic conference in Jackson Hole (USA). He spoke extremely negatively both about the hegemony of the American currency and the prospect of the emergence of another reserve, such as the Chinese yuan. The UK chief banker said the dollar should be replaced with some form of cryptocurrency similar to Facebook’s recently introduced Libra. It is not known whether his wishes will ever come true, but so far, of the dollar, yuan, Libra, and his "native" pound that he has mentioned, the dollar he does not like is feeling the best.
    As mentioned above, the BTC/USD pair came close to the July lows in the region of $9,100 last week. Last time, Bitcoin received support and fought off first at the level of $11,080, and then at $12,320. Whether something similar happens this time depends largely on major institutional investors. Bitcoin can also be supported by the launch of Bakkt, the crypto ecosystem created by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In the case of a confident breakdown of support $9,000-9,100, the pair is likely to fall to the zone of $7,450-8,200.
    But the prospects for altcoins look gloomy in both cases. If Bitcoin is to fall, investor interest in the cryptocurrency market as a whole will also fall. And if Bitcoin begins to grow, then we can expect an active exchange of altcoins for the reference cryptocurrency.
    [​IMG]


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  11. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Open an Account: https://nordfx.com/

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  12. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Financial Apocalypse 2019-2020


    Waiting for a Financial End of the World

    The world has frozen in anticipation of the global financial crisis. Some analysts predict its onset in the coming months, others give a delay until the end of 2020 - the beginning of 2021. But both draw quite apocalyptic pictures. The collapse in oil, copper and iron ore prices, falling stocks and currencies, layoffs and bankruptcies.

    One of the most famous economists, Nouriel Roubini, believes that the crisis will begin very soon, at the end of 2019-2020. Recall that his previous forecast was completely accurate. And now, in an article in Project Syndicate, Roubini cites a number of signs of impending disaster. Among them, along with the trade wars that the US is waging with China, the EU and other countries, Roubini calls the increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the recession caused by the cessation of fiscal stimulus.

    For these reasons, the growth rate of the American economy may slow down to 1%, as a result of which the country will face the problem of job shortages and unemployment. One should not forget that the foreign exchange reserves of most countries are denominated in US dollars, so the crisis in the US economy is very likely to cause a collapse around the world.

    But Is the Situation So Terrible Indeed?

    First, it is reassuring that crises are temporary and cyclical. If we turn to the theory of medium-term economic cycles, we will see that since the beginning of the Great Depression of 1929 they occur approximately once every 7-12 years.

    The first crisis in the 21st century was the bursting bubble of dotcoms (primarily American Internet companies) in 2000. Since 1994, the NASDAQ index had grown by more than 500%, and on March 10, 2000, in just one day, it fell more than one and a half times. Then the fall continued until 2003.

    The next crisis, 2008, was caused by a bursting bubble of mortgage lending in the United States. And now we are gradually approaching a new boiling point, which is based on the overheating of the American economy, intensified by the global instability. Last summer, the S&P500 index, whose basket includes 500 US companies with the largest capitalization, reached its maximum, approaching the mark of 3.000. And in January 2010 it was exactly 3 times smaller: 1.000. That is, for almost 10 years we have seen continuous growth in the US economy. ACCA chief economist Michael Taylor estimates this is the longest growth period in 150 years. And if we focus on the theory of the cyclical nature of crises, it would be time for the next of them to begin.

    And What about Washington?

    “Naturally, both Fed leaders and President Donald Trump are aware of this,” says John Gordon, lead analyst at NordFX brokerage. - And here we must remember that the next year, 2020, is the year of the next presidential election in the United States. If Mr. Trump wants to lead the country for the second time (and, apparently, he wants to), he just cannot allow the collapse of the American economy, falling incomes and rising unemployment. Voters will never forgive him for this. Therefore, we can observe lately how Mr. Trump puts pressure on the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, insisting on softening financial policy. And it seems that the Federal Reserve may follow the president’s lead.

    So, after the Fed raised its base interest rate from 2.25% to 2.5% in December last year, three more, if not four, increases were expected until mid-2020. However, the opposite happened: from July 31, 2019. the rate has again become 2.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of August at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole (USA), said that the Federal Reserve is ready to provide more incentives in case of a slowdown in economic growth.

    Many other central banks, including the main regulator of Europe, the ECB, are also focused on easing policies. The leadership of China declares support for its economy as well. So there is hope that by joint efforts it will be possible, if not to prevent the crisis, then at least to push it back to 2021.

    Yen, Bitcoin, Gold: An Equilateral Triangle

    By accumulating resources, the largest US corporations are already redefining the priority of paying dividends to their shareholders, which makes us think again: what if the crisis breaks out in the coming months? What should one do? What assets to invest in, so as not to be left with nothing?

    Currencies like the yen could be considered as a refuge. But they nevertheless strongly depend on the oil market and on the yield of US government bonds. For some time, the Japanese yen will be able to stay afloat. But, if the crisis is serious and long enough, its fate may also be unenviable.

    What other options are there? Crypto enthusiasts, like Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, offer to invest in bitcoin, convincing investors that this virtual coin has already become a safe asset that can hedge currency risks. However, for many experts, this way of saving money raises fair doubts. “Answer the question on your own,” John Gordon of NordFX offers, “how reliable is Bitcoin if only from 08 to 15 August this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500? And this happened without any crises! "

    With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling. Of course, it is possible that at the time of the crisis, the price of the main cryptocurrency will rapidly go up. But it can fly down no less swiftly. Probabilities are 50 to 50. We are looking for a really reliable asset. And this, according to many experts, of course, is gold.

    [​IMG]

    Over the past 20 years, this noble metal has risen in price from $275 per ounce in September 2000 to $1,550 in September 2019, bringing investors a profit of 460%.

    According to analyst and producer of The Gold Forecast daily newsletter Harry Wagner, the last major bullish wave began at the end of 2015, after a correction of up to $1040, and suggests that gold can re-test the record highs of 2011, reaching in 2020 prices of $2070-2085 dollars per ounce.

    Over the past year alone, since September 2018, the yellow metal has risen in price by 30%. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in the first six months of 2019 reached a three-year high (2181 tons), mainly due to record purchases of the precious metal by Central banks, which are transferring their dollar reserves to more reliable assets, in their opinion.

    “Of course, the numbers above look very attractive,” says the NordFX analyst. - And the actions of the Central Banks can be considered as an example. However, it must be borne in mind that if, in anticipation of a recession, the demand and, consequently, the price of this metal are rising, as the economy stabilizes, they may fall. Moreover, the fall may be quite serious. And the investor must have patience for the moment when the price moves up again to come: the process can take 5, 10 or more years. In this case, when we talk about hedging financial risks during global crises, gold can indeed be chosen as a preferred asset. As for the short- and medium-term speculations with it, this is a completely different issue, requiring a completely different approach, which must be discussed separately. However, in this case, gold can become a source of serious profit as well.”


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  13. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 23 - 27, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Analysts have been talking about this for so long and it has happened: on Wednesday September 18, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0%. But since they have been talking about this for a very long time, the market worked out this scenario a long time ago, and no "epoch-making" jumps in the rate have occurred. On the contrary, the volatility declined, and the pair switched to a sideways movement in the corridor 1.1000-1.1075, which is already well-known to traders.
    We have already talked in our previous forecasts about this Pivot Point zone of the last two months, which was formed as a result of uncertainty prevailing in the market. Last week was a confirmation of this. So, on the one hand, the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday went without extenuating rhetoric, reinforcing the view that there will be no further rate cuts this year. But the very next day, the Banks of Switzerland and England abandoned the policy of easing at their meetings as well, maintaining their rates at the same level, and the Bank of Norway did raise the key rate. This only exacerbated the uncertainty by forcing the EUR/USD pair to move strictly east;

    - GBP/USD. The pound continues winning back losses from the expectation of an unregulated Brexit, adding 5% against the September 3 low of 1.1958. This week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced his readiness to abandon the idea of the backstop on the Irish border if British Prime Minister Boris Johnson comes up with something new and viable. This pushed the pound further up, as a result of which the pair reached the corridor 1.2440-1.2580, in which it was already moving in July, and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2470;

    - USD/JPY.The pair updated its medium-term high in the middle of the last week, reaching the height of 108.47. This happened against the backdrop of the decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain the target yield of 10-year government bonds in the zero zone. A statement by the head of BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda, who stated that the issue of further rate cuts is still relevant, also helped weaken the yen.
    However, as usual, Trump's words made a greater impression on investors. And the US president said this time that Washington had reached an “initial” trade agreement with Tokyo, according to which the United States promised not to raise tariffs and introduce quotas for Japanese cars, and Tokyo would reset the duties on American wine within seven years.
    Cars against wine - such a deal is clearly in favor of Japan. In addition, due to the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the demand for protective assets has grown, among which, of course, is the yen. As a result, the pair went about 100 points in the opposite direction, ending the week session at 107.55;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Last week pleased some and forced some to have cold sweat due to an unexpected sharp drop in bitcoin (BTC/USD) by 6%, and then due to its unexpected growth, for no apparent reason. This drop caused the widespread closure of long positions: on one BitMEX crypto exchange alone the closed positions were worth $150 million.
    The most likely explanation for what happened is the game of major capital against small traders, disappointed by the lack of a quick rise in bitcoin. At the same time, large players, not wanting to cause a panic collapse, do not let the pair fall below acceptable levels, keeping it in a comfortable range with a Pivot Point of $10,000.
    Interestingly, the main altcoins seem to have begun to live an independent life, only partially copying the movements of the reference cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has risen in price by 35% over the past three weeks, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 30%, and Ripple managed to jump up by 27% in just 4 days (from September 14 to 18). And this despite the fact that the maximum fluctuations in bitcoin this month did not exceed 9%.
    The most logical, in our opinion, explanation is the subtlety of the market for altcoins. Unlike bitcoin, it is much easier to manipulate the exchange rate here, even with significantly lower amounts, which cannot but attract speculators eager for quick enrichment.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Unable to overcome the strong resistance level of 98.23, the USDX index is moving in a side channel. The pair EUR/USD is also moving east. Most likely, bearish factors such as quantitative easing (QE) in Europe and unregulated Brexit have already been played by the market. Objectively, the US economy is stronger than the European one. But the dollar-driven trade wars launched by President Trump are constantly hampering the dollar. And now there is also expectation of a full-fledged hot war in the Middle East over the drones’ attack on the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, which Iran is accused of organizing. It is clear that the United States will surely intervene in this conflict.
    All this leads to the closure of short positions on EUR/USD, and it is possible that the pair will not be able to update the September low at 1.0925. Half of the experts agree with this scenario, expecting it to grow to the height of 1.1100. The next target is 1.1160. 20% of analysts believe that the pair will nevertheless go down to around 1.0800. And 30%, supported by the oscillators on D1, expect the continuation of the side trend;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. According to the calculations of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, unorderly Brexit will subtract 0.5 pp from the Eurozone GDP, and as much as 2 pp from the Misty Albion GDP(!). Such a fall, according to the OECD experts, will put the Eurozone on the brink of a collapse, and Britain will plunge into a deep recession. Responding to such forecasts, markets, like ordinary consumers, tried to get rid of the pound, as a result of which this currency approached the 2016 lows.
    If you look at the graph, you can see that three years ago, having pushed away from zone 1.1945-1.1985, the pair went up and, having passed 2,400 points, reached the height of 1.4345 in January 2018. This “historical” experience is pushing some investors to buy the pound right now, hoping that the situation with Brexit will be somehow settled, and the Bank of England, fighting inflation, will begin to raise interest rates.
    Among analysts, the number of supporters of this development today is 40%. 80% of the oscillators on D1 also agree with this prediction. If the bullish scenario is implemented, the pair will first rise to the zone 1.2575-1.2645, and then 100 points higher. The most ambitious forecasts indicate the pair growth to the level of 1.3100 by the end of the year.
    However, at the moment, the Brexit question remains open, and therefore most analysts (60%), supported by 70% of the oscillators on H4 and graphical analysis on D1, maintain a pessimistic mood, expecting that during the autumn, the pair will try again to approach its absolute low over the past 228 (!) years when on October 7, 2016 one pound was worth a little more than 1.19 dollars (in 1791 the pair GBP/USD was at around 4.55). The closest support areas are 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2280-1.2300, 1.2065-1.2200, 1.1955-1.2015;

    - USD/JPY. For the reasons described above, most experts (65%) have supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75.85% of indicators on H4 agree with this scenario. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold.
    35% of analysts consider the strengthening of the yen a temporary phenomenon and therefore predict the pair will rise to the height of 109.00.
    As for the graphical analysis, at the first stage it draws the pair's growth to the horizon of 108.50 and then its fall to the level of 106.75. The following support levels are 105.75 and 105.00. The target of the bears is the low of 08/26/2019 at the level of 104.45;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Despite the constant assurances of the crypto market “guru” about the inevitable rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars, its price still remains in the consolidation zone, moving along the $10,000 horizon. Moreover, the volatility of the BTC/USD pair is decreasing day by day. And it seems that this situation is quite suitable for large players building this low “fence” and earning on the volume of transactions, and not on the frantic jumps of quotes.
    Of course, a breakthrough can occur at any time. However, it is difficult to say in the current situation when this will happen and in which direction the price will go. We only note that at the moment, 65% of the experts surveyed remain bullish optimistic, and 35% are expecting the pair to drop to around $8,000.


    Roman Butko, NordFX

    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  14. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 30 - October 04, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The worse the things are for Trump, the better they are for the dollar. Such a conclusion can be made by looking at the quotes’ charts. Now, due to a conversation with the President of Ukraine, the US President is facing impeachment, and the dollar index has already risen to the highs around 99.00. The euro retreated another 100 points, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair updated its lows, dropping to the level of April 2017, and ended the week at 1.0940;

    - GBP/USD. The dollar is growing not only due to the economic downturn in the Old World, but also to the growing concern about Brexit. The British Parliament has no way to deal with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and he, in turn, is in confrontation with both Parliament and Brussels, which does not want to make concessions. In such a situation, Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England 's Monetary Policy Committee, said the Bank might be forced to lower interest rates, even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided.
    Such a statement from one of the financial "hawks" pushed the pound even further down. As a result, as most experts predicted (60%), the British currency is weakened by more than 200 points, and at the end of the week session it cost 1.229 US dollars per pound;

    - USD/JPY. Recall that most experts (65%) supported the bears by voting for the fall of the dollar and the return of the pair to the area of 105.75-106.75. Indeed, starting from the moment the trading session opened, the pair went down, reaching the local bottom at 106.95 by Tuesday evening. After this, a U-turn followed, and the pair returned to where it had already been seven days ago, completing the five-day period at 107.95;

    - Cryptocurrencies. What the bulls were so afraid of did happen. Everyone understood that the three-month localization Bitcoin prices in the $10,000 area should, finally finish with a breakthrough. But just in which direction? The scenario we announced for the pair to fall to around $8,000 was supported by 35% of experts, who, as a result, turned out to be right. On September 24, the day already nicknamed Black Tuesday, the basic cryptocurrency flew down, losing almost 17% and reaching $8.115. (During the “minute flow” on the Binance crypto exchange, someone managed to buy bitcoin for only some $1,800). The bulls' attempt to win back the losses failed. Only on one BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, mainly due to the triggering of stop orders, “long” positions of $650 million were closed. On Thursday, the decline continued, and the BTC/USD was able to find the local bottom only reaching the horizon of $7,700.
    According to one version, the market crash is associated with the complete disappointment with trading volumes on the Bakkt platform, intended for trading cryptocurrency futures. Recall that it began working on Monday, September 23, and on the first day only 71 contracts were sold, each with a volume of 1 BTC. Futures trading was supposed to help the crypto industry. But the opposite happened, and the day after the start of Bakkt there came a "Black Tuesday."
    Naturally, falling into the abyss, Bitcoin pulled altcoins along with it. So, the week low for Ethereum (ETH/USD) was fixed at $154.3 (minus 30%), for Litecoin (LTC/USD) - at $50.5 (minus 34%), for Ripple (XRP/USD) - $ 0.213 (minus 28%). The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased by more than 20% in seven days, from $ 277 billion to $ 218 billion.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The dollar continues to be in demand amid confusion with Brexit and weak economic statistics coming from the EU. It is also supported by the strong results of the auction on US Treasury bonds and some optimism regarding the outcome of the US-Chinese trade war. Thus, last week, the Minister of Commerce of China expressed hope that, a position suiting both sides would be found in negotiations with the United States.
    But besides this shiny side, the medal has another, reverse side. It lies in the discontent of Trump and his administration with the growth of the dollar, which negatively affects the competitiveness of American industry. In this regard, it can be expected that, under pressure from the US President, the Fed will take certain steps towards quantitative easing (QE), which will lead, if not to the dollar weakening, then at least to slowing down of the further strengthening of the US currency.
    This week we will see a lot of economic news from both Europe and the United States. The preliminary values of the German Consumer Price Index (September 30) and the EU (October 01) will be published. Also, on Tuesday, October 1 and Wednesday October 2, ISM Business Activity Indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors will be released. And on the first Friday of the month, statistics on the US labor market, including NFP, will traditionally be released. The business week will be completed by a speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell.
    Regarding the opinion of experts, 55% of them expect a correction of the EUR/USD pair up to the zone 1.1000-1.1100. 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1 also support this scenario, giving signals that the pair is being oversold. The remaining 45% of analysts, along with the overwhelming number of indicators, have sided with the bears, expecting the dollar to further strengthen and the pair to decline to the 1.0800 horizon. The nearest support is 1.0885. A compromise option is drawn by graphical analysis on D1: first, a decline to the level of 1.0800, then movement in the channel 1.0800-1.0885 and a subsequent return to the height of 1.1000;

    - GBP/USD. On Monday, the last day of September, the data on the UK GDP for the 2nd quarter will be released. The indicator is expected to show an increase of 0.7% (from -0.2% to + 0.5%). However, this is unlikely to have a long-term impact on the pound, whose exchange rate is still determined by the confusion around Brexit, the date of which, October 31, is inexorably approaching.
    In this situation, 45% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and most indicators, expect the pair to try to update the September 3 low, 1.1960. Immediate support is at the levels of 1.2210, 1.2080, 1.2015.
    25% of analysts have voted for the lateral movement of the pair along the Pivot Point 1.2300. And another 30% of experts expect its growth to the height of 1.2500. Such a forecast is supported by 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling overselling of the pair. The nearest resistance is in the zone of 1.2385-1.2415 ;

    - USD/JPY. As for the yen, investors will wait for the developments in the US-Chinese trade war and the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan in late October, which may give a regulatory impetus to the country's economy. Pushing the yen up may decrease the yield on US bonds.
    In the meantime, the voices of experts are divided as follows. 40% of analysts and graphical analysis on D 1 have voted for the pair to decline. The goal is a breakthrough of support in the zone 107.00 and the transition to the zone 105.75-106.70. The next target is 105.00. 60% of the experts, 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and 90% on D1 have voted for the pair to reach the zone of 109.00. The nearest resistance is 108.50;

    - Cryptocurrencies. It seems that the climatic chaos on the planet is reflected in the crypto market as well. And instead of the crypto spring promised by the famous investor Thomas Lee, another crypto winter is setting in. At least, the rise of Bitcoin to 50, 100 or 200 thousand dollars predicted by many gurus has not yet happened. And the fact that the current rebound from $7,700 has not received any serious development indicates the lack of consumer appetite among investors.
    The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” on Thursday reached the “12” mark, which corresponds to the “extreme fear”. According to the developers of the index, this is a good moment to open “long” positions, however, as already mentioned, there are no active purchases. And it is possible that they will begin only when the price approaches the zone of $7,000-7,400.
    [​IMG]


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  15. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Saigon Financial Education Summit Closes with NordFX Award


    At the end of September, the largest metropolis of Vietnam, the ten millionth Ho Chi Minh city, saw an event that attracted the attention of not only numerous specialists, but also those who want to gain experience in online trading and investing in financial markets. One of the participants of the Saigon Financial Education Summit (SFES) was NordFX, with an impressive team of this international broker at its booth.

    [​IMG]

    The NordFX brand is already well-known in Vietnam. SFES also made it possible to introduce the summit participants to the latest developments of this brokerage company in the field of not only currency trading, but also work with cryptocurrencies, as well as portfolio and individual investment in shares of the world's major companies.

    Another attractive tool for traders is the opportunity to profit from transactions with major world stock indexes, such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc., as well as with indices that reflect the movement of leading cryptocurrencies.

    The final chord of the summit was the awarding of financial companies that have deserved the greatest recognition and respect. The winners were determined by open online voting, as a result of which the NordFX brokerage company received the Excellent Affiliate Program prize for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted over 25,000 people from different countries.

    It should be noted that it is easy to become a partner of NordFX, for this you only need to go through a short registration procedure.

    You can learn the details of the terms and benefits of the program at https://nordfxpartners.com.


    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
     
  16. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 7 - 11, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Most experts (55%) expected a correction of the pair up to the zone of 1.1000. This scenario was also supported by 15% of the oscillators on D1 and W1, giving clear signals about the pair being oversold. This forecast can be considered fulfilled by 100%, since the EUR rate rose on Thursday September 3 to the level of 1.0999 USD. The warning of the graphical analysis was also true that before going to the level of 1.1000, the pair may expect a decline, which it showed at the very beginning of the week.
    The growth of the European currency was supported by weak macro statistics from the USA, caused in many respects by the trade wars waged by President Trump. Thus, the ISM index of business activity in the service sector showed a fall from 56.4 to 52.6. After its publication on October 3, the market drew attention to the release on the American labor market, which traditionally saw the light on the first Friday of the month, October 4. The number of new jobs created in the USA outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) fell by almost 20% (from 168K to 136K), which also indicates the approach of a recession.
    It is such indicators as ISM and NFP that determine the steps taken by the US Federal Reserve to change the interest rate. Therefore, the key event was the speech of Jerome Powell at the very end of the working week, from which investors hoped to find out the Fed's plans for the coming months.
    Powell is famous for his ability to say a lot and not say anything specific. It so happened this time as well. As a result, after making several light jumps, the pair froze at around 1.0980;

    - GBP/USD. In the British Isles, the first week of October was surprisingly calm. Nothing extraordinary happened around Brexit. Therefore, the [air ended up on Friday October 3rd in the same zone as it had been seven days before. Most of the time it moved in the side channel in the range 1.2275-1.2350, although both the bulls and the bears made several attempts to go beyond it. So, the local low was fixed at 1.2205, the high was at 1.2415, and the range of exchange rate fluctuations was 210 points;

    - USD/JPY. As for the yen, it was expected that investors would wait for the developments in the US-China trade war. The yen could be pushed up by a decrease in the yield on American bonds. As a result, the fog around the negotiations between Washington and Beijing did not clear, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell by 12%. Thanks to these factors, as well as the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, the yen rose, reaching on Thursday the values of a month ago in the area of 106.50. The final point of the week was set by the Japanese currency at 106.85;

    - Cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency “Fear & Greed Index” rose from the red zone of “extreme fear” to the orange zone of “ordinary fear”. The fear that Bitcoin could fall even lower has not gone away. The market just calmed down and came to its senses a bit after an unsuccessful start of the Bakkt crypto futures trading and the ensuing panic on September 24th. Traders and investors took a break, which is clearly visible on the BTC/USD chart. The maximum volatility of the pair last week occurred on September 30 - October 01 and amounted to about 9%. For the rest of the time, the pair moved along the $8.190 horizon in an even narrower side channel, not exceeding 5%.
    Following the main cryptocurrency, the main altcoins, Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), etc. also went into the side trend. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market returned to the values of mid-May 2019 and amounts to just over $223 billion.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Over the coming week, we are waiting for a fairly large number of events, including numerous speeches by the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell in the first half of the week. However, the most important events will undoubtedly be the publication of the minutes of the Fed Governing Council on Wednesday October 9, and the report on the meeting of their colleagues from the ECB on Thursday October 10. Both of these documents should shed the light on the monetary and financial policies of the United States and the EU in the near future.
    At the moment, the votes of experts are distributed as follows. 60% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote in favor of the pair falling and attempting to update the October 01 low 1.0880. The remaining 40% of analysts, in full agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, adhere to the opposite point of view, believing that the European currency has not yet exhausted its potential for growth and the pair will be able to rise to the zone of 1.1100.
    And finally, the indicators. Both oscillators and trend indicators on H4 are mostly colored green, on D1, half of them already change color to red, and on W1, red becomes dominant. At the same time, about 15% of the oscillators are already signaling the pair is overbought on H4 and D1;

    - GBP/USD. On Tuesday, October 08, the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled. However, it is not him, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson who now acts as the main newsmaker in the UK. And what he says, and even more so does, excites investors much more (no offense be told to Mr. Carney). But what Mr. Johnson will say and do is not yet clear to anyone (perhaps even to himself either). Only three weeks are left before Britain’s exit from the EU, and it’s unlikely that Johnson will be able to agree with Brussels on the terms of a deal advantageous for his country. So, either Brexit without a deal, or ... its another extension.
    Although miracles do happen sometimes... But, as the survey shows, 65% of analysts, like graphical analysis, do not believe in them. Therefore, they are expecting the pound to fall further in an attempt to update September 3 low at 1.1960. The nearest supports are at the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2070.
    It is only 35% of experts who believe in Boris Johnson and expect the best, they are waiting for the strengthening of the pound and raising the pair to the height of 1.2525.
    Among the indicators, the situation is similar to the situation in the British Parliament: a complete mixture of red, green and gray colors, as well as discord regarding the pair being overbought or oversold on different time frames. So, you should not count on the help of indicators in making decisions at the moment;
    [​IMG]

    - USD/JPY. Graphical analysis and 65% of experts count on the growth of the yen and the fall of the pair. Moreover, this is not only a weekly forecast, but also a forecast until the end of 2019. 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this, as well as 75% on W1. But among oscillators, the situation is different: 75% of them vote for the southward movement on H4, 60% vote on D1, and only 25% on W1. The goals of the bears are 106.50, 105.70, 105.00 and 104.45. The goals of the bulls are 107.55, 108.50, 109.00;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Digital market fans continue to mesmerize investors with promises of sky-high profits. So, the developer of the famous antivirus software John McAfee claims that the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million in 2020. He explains his forecast with a limited number of Bitcoins, 85% of which have already been mined. A more "modest" forecast is given by analysts at the German Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB ).In their opinion, the planned halving of the mining reward for the next year could lead to an increase in the BTC price to $90,000, which at the current price of $8,200 will yield almost 1000% of the profit.
    However, along with optimists, voices of the skeptics are heard as well, whose number is constantly growing. In the two years that have passed since the second half of 2017, cryptocurrencies not only failed to supplant traditional money, but did not even become any serious part of the financial system. They did not begin to be used on a large scale as a means of payment. Moreover, falling into the grip of state regulation, they simply lose their idea of a financial market independent of governments.
    Currently, only 25% of analysts believe that Bitcoin will be able to rise above the $8,500-8,600 zone in the coming days. Most speak of a sideways movement with some dominance of bears that can lower the pair to $7,500-7,700.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  17. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 14-18, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Last week was marked by two events. The first is progress on the next stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, the beginning of which was called by president Trump "very, very good." The second is a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Increased hopes for a regulated UK exit pushed the pound up, followed by a pull to the North by the European currency as well. It was facilitated by the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, October 10, which confirmed that the Bank is coming to the end of the easing policy (QE). As a result, the pair was able to rise to 1.1062;

    - GBP/USD. Only 35% of experts believed in the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and counted on a miracle. And now the miracle did happen, and even exceeded all expectations. Analysts were waiting for the pair to rise to the height of 1.2525, in reality, the pound soared by more than 500 points, reaching the height of 1.2708. The reason was a breakthrough in the negotiations on the Irish border, following which Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that they were "very positive and promising." It is possible that Johnson is ready to introduce special terms for Northern Ireland and allow it to remain in the European Customs Union for four years after Brexit.
    According to experts, the GBP/USD pair was so oversold that any positive news was able to cause the pound to rise. And in this case, the positive turn in the negotiations worked like a trigger, allowing the British currency to become heavier by 4% in just a couple of days;

    - USD/JPY. But for the yen, unlike the pound, it seems that hard days have come: thanks to the growth of risk sentiment, the Japanese currency has undergone a massive sell-off, resulting in its quotes’ fall by almost 200 points, to the level of 108.62 yen per dollar. Among the reasons are several. These are hopes for a favorable outcome of the US-China trade war, progress in Brexit negotiations, the latest minutes of the ECB meeting and a sharp rise in the US bond yields;

    - Cryptocurrencies. The capitalization of the crypto market ($234 billion) is still small compared to traditional markets (the gold market is estimated at $9 trillion, the stock market – at $66 trillion, the bond market – at $86 trillion) and does not exceed two tenths of a percent of their total assets. But, despite this, the topic of cryptocurrencies constantly arises on the crest of the world politics.
    So, the famous American billionaire Daniel Steven Pena said that cryptocurrencies can be the result of a conspiracy of Russia against the United States, and President Vladimir Putin himself is behind the creation of Bitcoin. This statement was echoed by the appeal of members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress to the Head of the Fed with a proposal to issue a crypto-dollar. With this step, the authors of the appeal want to protect American finances from the influence of someone else's hostile cryptocurrency.
    A similar initiative was made by German Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who called for the release of the digital Euro. "We should not leave this space to China, Russia, the United States or any of the private suppliers," he said.
    Crypto-dollar and crypto-Euro are things of the distant future, but already now governments and Central banks are beginning to actively fight against potential independent competitors. Zuckerberg's (Facebook) release of his own Libra coin came under intense pressure. The next in line is TON-coin, the launch of which Telegram is rapidly approaching.
    For now, the main cryptocurrency on which the entire market is based, of course, remains Bitcoin. The forecast for the past week, which was supported by the majority of experts (75%), assumed a lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with some dominance of bears, able to lower the pair to $7,500-7,700. However, on Monday, bitcoin found a local bottom at $7,795, and then turned around and went up. The change in trend may have been due to the launch of the p2p platform from Binance, where Bitcoin and Ethereum will be traded for Chinese yuan.
    On Wednesday, October 09, the pair managed to overcome a two-week resistance in the $8,350 zone and on Friday reached a high of $8,815. After that, it returned to the $8,350 horizon, which may now become a new strong support area for it.
    Altcoins obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency for the whole week. However, while the swing of Ethereum (ETH/USD) and ripple (XRP/USD) was about 17%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) behaved somewhat calmer, demonstrating volatility at the level of 13%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - UR/USD. Regarding the final outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, markets are showing reasonable restraint, expecting endless disputes to continue, and maybe even their complete collapse and the introduction of new duties. In the coming week, we also expect some important news that can have a strong impact on the rates of the currencies in question. Among them are statistics from China on Monday October 14 and Friday October 18, as well as the UK and Eurozone inflation reports on Tuesday October 15 and Wednesday October 17. On Thursday, increased volatility may be caused by the report on industrial production in the United States. A significant decrease in this indicator is predicted: from 0.6% to 0.1%. And if the actual value coincides with the forecast, one can expect a decline in the dollar.
    The fall of the dollar and the rise of the pair are expected by 70% of experts, whose forecast is supported by the readings of 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The support zone in case of growth of the pair is 1.1000. Targets are 1.1075, 1.1100 and 1.1160.
    The opposite point of view is held by 30% of analysts and 20% of oscillators, giving signals about the pair being overbought. The targets are 1.1000, 1.0940, 1.0925 and the low of 01 October 1.0880;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. In fact, it is too early to exult over the successful conclusion of Brexit. Johnson still needs the terms of the deal with the EU be approved by Parliament. And this, we recall, the previous Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May failed to do, four times. The negotiations with Ireland have also not yet concluded. In addition, the European Council summit on Brexit will be held on the coming Thursday and Friday. Each of these steps can slow down the process of concluding a deal or even become an insurmountable obstacle in its path. In the latter case, the EU is ready to provide a new extension until the summer of 2020 to still ensure an orderly exit of the UK from the EU.
    These difficulties, as well as too rapid growth of the pound last week, led to the fact that now 75% of experts expect a reversal of the trend and the fall of the British currency to the 1.2200 zone. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pound is overbought.
    The vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators, as well as 25% of experts waiting for the strengthening of the pound and the rise of the pair to the height of 1.2800, still believe in the luck of Boris Johnson. Naturally, the emergence of serious positive news regarding Brexit, not to mention the signing of the Agreement, can lead to another jerk of the pound to cosmic heights;

    - USD/JPY. On H4, 100% of trend indicators look up, on D1, a little less – 90%. 75% of oscillators are colored green on both H4 and D1, the remaining 15% give signals about the pair being overbought. The graphical analysis on D1 indicates a decline of the pair to the horizon of 106.65, and then a return to the height of 108.40.
    As for the experts, their opinions are equally divided: a third are for the pair's growth, a third are for the fall and a third vote for the sideways trend. The support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, the zones of resistance are109.00 and 109.85;

    - Cryptocurrencies. As mentioned above, breaking through the two-week resistance at $8,350, Bitcoin may now turn this zone into a strong enough support. Moreover, the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, rising from the red zone of "extreme fear", has almost passed the orange zone of "Ordibary Fear" and is approaching its neutral position. If this happens, the next target for the BTC/USD pair will be to consolidate in the $9,000 area. However, this forecast is supported by only 35% of analysts. Most of them (65%) have sided with the bears, expecting the pair to decline first to the horizon of $8,000, and then to $400 below.
    Another "cosmic" forecast, which we regularly talk about, was the statement of the creator of the famous antivirus John McAfee that in 2020 the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million. The main impetus for reaching the bullish dynamics, according to him, will be the limited number if coins as well as the reduction in the number of altcoins, which will make the main coin the only reliable and stable asset.
    Analysts of the TIE also predict a gloomy future for altcoins. According to their observations, interest in altcoins is rapidly falling, approaching zero in some cases. So, it is possible that out of thousands of coins only a few of the largest, such as Ethereum or Libra will remain afloat in a few months.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    https://nordfx.com/
     
  18. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 21 - 25, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. The main theme last week was undoubtedly Brexit. New Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to reach a compromise with Brussels, and on Thursday October 17, the European Union Summit approved an agreement on the terms of Britain's exit from the EU and its date, November 01. This event, as well as the reduction of political and trade risks in Europe, Asia and America, "seasoned" with weak statistics from the US, opened the way to the north for the bulls.
    The overwhelming majority of experts (70%) pointed to 1.1160 as the main target, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct: on Friday evening the pair managed to rise to this height, where it ended the week-long session;

    - GBP/USD. Since October 08, the British currency has gained almost 800 points, or about 6%. And all this thanks to the hope for a coming successful completion of the" show " called Brexit, which has lasted for 3.5 years and od each all are quite tired. At the peak of optimism on Thursday, October 17, the pound was noted at 1.2990, followed by a correction and a finish at 1.2940;

    - USD/JPY. Recall that the opinions of the experts concerning the yen were spread equally last week: a third voted for the pair's growth, a third for its fall and a third for a sideways trend. And they were all right. At first, the pair fell slightly to the level of 108.02. Then it rose a little, to the level of 108.90, then moved sideways and finished almost where it was a week ago, in the Pivot Point zone 108.40-108.45;

    – cryptocurrencies. Twitter users have estimated that the price of the main cryptocurrency has increased by 838.078.685% over the past ten years. But it seems that such space takeoffs are no longer worth waiting for. Not so long ago, Bitcoin was pushed up by the news of the launch of major projects such as Libra by Facebook and TON by Telegram. (Though it's not really clear why. After all, if both of these coins appeared, they would constitute a powerful competition to Bitcoin). But many governments and regulators have turned on the Facebook project, and Telegram has postponed the launch of TON altogether amid problems with American legislation. Thus, both of these drivers, if not completely disappeared, are at least greatly weakened. And this could not but affect the crypto market. Over the past ten days, its capitalization has fallen from $236 billion to $224 billion, and the price of Bitcoin, as most of our experts had expected, has fallen to the lower limit of the side corridor of $7,795-8,700.
    Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) dutifully followed to the south in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. But as for the Ripple (XRP/USD), it shows a stubborn character for the last four weeks. During this time, the price of the coin rose by 40%, returning to a strong medium-term support/resistance level in the 0.30 zone. Most likely, this rise is caused by a number of positive news related directly to the company itself.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - GBP/USD. We put this pair before the Euro/Dollar because everything that will happen to the pound in the coming week will have a powerful impact on the quotes of the other leading currencies.
    In fact, the new Brexit agreement is basically the same text that the previous Prime Minister Theresa May failed for three times to "push" through the British Parliament. And now on Saturday 19 October, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try to do it. And without Parliamentary approval, the deal with the EU will not take place.
    The main difference of Johnson's version is the absence of the so-called "Irish backstop", because of which the UK risked remaining in the European customs Union. But Johnson failed to completely close this border gap, and Northern Ireland will still have to obey EU trade rules. And in this, many see a threat of the collapse of the United Kingdom. The Democratic unionist party of Northern Ireland is unhappy as well. "We do not intend to vote for this project," said the DUP leader Arlene Foster. "It's not the end yet. It's not even the beginning of the end! »
    So, for the first time since the 1982 Falklands war, MPs will cancel their weekend plans and meet for an emergency meeting. When this forecast is written, we do not yet know how "super Saturday" ends. But a simple count shows that Johnson may be a few votes short and the vote will fail and bring back the old uncertainty about the outcome of Brexit.
    In any case, there is a lot of chance that on Monday, October 21, the markets will open with a big gap. Almost 20% of oscillators already indicate the British currency is overbought. And in case of Johnson's defeat, we will see a powerful counterattack of the bears and the return of the pair to the lows of the first decade of October in the area of 1.2200. (Supports 1.2515, 1.2380 and 1.2280). If the Agreement is approved, the pound has a lot of chances to exceed this year's maximum at 1.3380.
    If we move from the weekly forecast to the medium-term, it becomes clear that even in the case of a regulated Brexit, the pound will still be under pressure. Accustomed to working within the EU, the UK economy, left alone, will surely begin to experience serious difficulties, which will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates and take a number of serious steps to ease monetary policy. In such a situation, the pound has a lot of chances to roll back from the highs and return to the 1.3100 zone;

    - EUR/USD. In the coming week, the interest rate decisions of the People's Bank of China on Monday 21 October and the ECB on Thursday 24 October will be known. And if the rate on the Euro is likely to remain unchanged, Beijing may present markets with a small surprise. The data on business activity in Germany, which will also be released next Thursday, are also of interest. But, as already mentioned, the main trend of the pair will be set by the pound, which will either pull the Euro up, or overturn it by a hundred or two points. The bears ' targets are September-October lows of 1.0850-1.0925, the bulls' targets are 1.1250-1.1350.
    At the moment, the majority of experts (80%) expect that Boris Johnson will be able to get a majority of votes in Parliament, and only 20% predict the fall of the pair. It is interesting that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of forces is mirrored, and here 80% are waiting for the decline of the pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900 by the end of the year;

    - USD/JPY. The targets for the yen remained unchanged. Support zones – 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, resistance - 109.00 and 109.85. It is only the mood of the experts that has changed. If 60% of them vote for the growth of the pair the next week, and 40% are for the fall, then in the medium – term interval everything is vice versa: 40% are for the growth and 60% are for the fall.
    There is no unity among the indicators either. If on H4 80% of oscillators are colored red and 20% signal the pair is oversold, then on D1 80% have changed the color to green, and 20% believe that the pair is oversold.
    The result of the discord is summed up by the graphical analysis on D1, which draws first a fall to the level of 107.50, and then a rise to the height of 109.00;

    – cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has been moving along the $7,795-8,700 corridor with a Pivot Point of $8,300 for almost a month, starting from September 25. The same thing happened from mid-May to mid-June. But then, if you follow the Elliott wave theory, it was a respite (or corrective wave #4) between the impulse waves #3 and # 5 of the uptrend (which is clearly visible on the W1 timeframe). Now the picture is reversed and, following the same Elliott, we see the end of wave #5 already on a downtrend. In theory, we should expect an upward correction of the pair, especially since the MFI indicator on H4, D1 and W1 is in the lower, critical zone, and the MACD on H4 and D1 indicates divergence. But it has long been noticed that when it comes to cryptocurrencies, graphic and technical analysis often slip. Much more important here are the news background and manipulations of large speculators. The fact remains that over the past four months, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by more than 40%, and the crypto-currency "Fear & Greed Index" is still in the "Fear" zone.
    Pessimistic sentiment is supported by 60% of experts who expect a breakthrough of the lower border of the corridor and the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the $7,000-7,400 zone. The remaining 40% of analysts do not expect Bitcoin to take off either. In their opinion, in the coming week, the reference cryptocurrency will be traded in the range of $8,300-8,700 per 1 coin.
    [​IMG]


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  19. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 28 - November 01, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Since it is not only the pound that depends on what happens in the framework of Brexit, but also the Euro, to begin with, we will tell you what the situation looks like with the UK's exit from the EU a week before this exit (if it happens of course). And the situation looks like... a vicious circle.
    On the one hand, Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to withdraw his draft EU withdrawal Agreement until Parliament agrees to an election on December 12. But the Parliament does not agree, because the opposition wants Johnson to rule out the option of leaving without an Agreement with the EU, as well as for the EU to agree to an extension of the terms of this exit. The EU, for its part, before deciding on how long to extend Brexit, is waiting for the consent (or disagreement) of Parliament for early elections on December 12.
    Is everything clear? Or not? Judging by the reaction of the markets, it is difficult to understand the current situation, but it is even more difficult to make any predictions. That is why we did not see any significant jumps in quotations last week. The Euro weakened slightly against the dollar, but this fall was only 100 points, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.1080.
    In addition to the endless uncertainty with Brexit, additional pressure on the Euro is certainly exerted by the slowing European economy. Despite the efforts of the ECB, inflation can not reach the target level of 2%. In September, the European regulator lowered its key interest rate to negative -0.5% and announced its intention to resume the program of quantitative easing (QE). On October 31, the current head of the ECB leaves his post, and it is possible that with the arrival of the new head, Christine Lagarde, the policy of the European Central Bank will undergo some changes. But at the moment, from the point of view of investors, the advantage is on the side of the dollar, as the US Federal Reserve rate is positive and is 2%;

    - GBP/USD. So, instead of bringing clarity, the vote on the terms of Brexit in the UK Parliament on October 19 confused the situation even more. As a result, "super Saturday" did not lead to super jumps in the financial markets, but caused only a smooth decline in the British currency by about 200 points, returning the quotes to the levels of seven days ago, to the 1.2825 zone;

    - USD/JPY. Giving a forecast for this pair the previous week, we noted a complete confusion and discord among both analysts and technical analysis tools. It seems that speculators have lost interest in the Japanese currency for a while, as a result, the pair moved in the corridor 108.45-108.75 most of the time. Two attempts of the bears to reverse the situation can not be taken into account, as the pair very quickly returned to this super-narrow channel, only 30 points wide, closer to the upper border of which it put the final point, freezing at 108.65;

    – cryptocurrencies. As one analyst put it, the head of Facebook "hammered the last nail into the lid of the cryptocurrency coffin" last week. More precisely, Zuckerberg and congressmen hammered it together during his appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Service Committee. Congressmen have not only expressed concern about the spread of cryptocurrencies in general and the Libra project in particular. They said cryptocurrencies pose a threat to the traditional currency market and could be used to finance criminal activity and money laundering. But this is not all: during the hearings, a proposal was made to think about a bill on a complete ban of cryptocurrencies.
    As for Mark Zuckerberg, he said that Libra will not be launched until it receives the permission of the regulator. And in general, according to him, Libra is a risky project, and he, Zuckerberg, is not at all sure that this initiative of his is able to bring him profit.
    Recall that shortly before, against the background of problems with the American legislation, Telegram "turned on the back speed" and postponed the launch of its TON cryptocurrency.
    We have repeatedly written that the crypto market depends on the news background as much as possible. And the news from the US Congress led to the fact that on Wednesday October 23, the benchmark currency collapsed to a five-month low, shrinking by almost $1,000 in a day, and reaching the bottom at $7.330.
    But the crypto surprises did not end there, and it turned out that it was too early to bury this market. On Friday, October 25, the market literally exploded, and the bitcoin exchange rate made an incredible jump of $3,000, adding a maximum of 40% and reaching $10,500.
    This was the largest increase since February 2014., and it was caused by news again: that Chinese President XI Jinping supported the development of blockchain. At the same time, the editorial of the Chinese newspaper People's Daily, which reported on this statement, doesn't have a word about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general, but the bulls did not need them.
    Following bitcoin, almost all altcoins from the TOP 100 went up. Ethereum (ETH/USD) jumped almost 30%, ripple (XRP/USD) – 31%, litecoin (LTC/USD) – 35%.
    As a result, coin owners and traders who have already opened long positions on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were able to get a very significant profit. Those who "jumped into the last car of the departing train" suffered no less significant losses: the BTC/USD pair turned around very quickly and collapsed to the level of $9,055 – a powerful support on which it relied since mid-June.

    continued below ...
     
  20. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Some analysts believe that the coming week may be the "hottest" this year. In addition to the fact that the UK may leave the European Union on Thursday, October 31, the day before, on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve may lower the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. It seems that the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has succumbed to the exhortations of President Trump. His office has already launched a $60 billion monthly asset purchase program In October, and now here is another step toward stimulating the American real sector. Powell does not want to call what is happening a quantitative easening (QE) for some reason, but perhaps he is right: a number of experts believe that there is just another emission of the dollar mass and pumping the economy with unsecured money. With a certain degree of probability, this is due to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. And Trump, who is seeking re-election to the second term, is pressing the Fed to cut the rate further, down to zero.
    Shortly before the Fed meeting, on October 30, preliminary data on US GDP will be known and, according to forecasts, it will show a slowdown in the economic growth in the III quarter from 2.0% to 1.6%. If so, Trump will get another lever of pressure on Powell and the Fed led by him.
    As for other events of the coming week, it is worth noting the preliminary estimate of the GDP growth and inflation data in the Eurozone, which will be known on Thursday 31 October. Data on the US labor market (including NFP) and the business activity index from ISM will traditionally be released on Friday, November 01.
    Summing up the forecasts of experts for the coming week, it has not been possible to form any definite opinion: 50% are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for its growth. A similar discrepancy is observed in the readings of indicators on D1. This is due to uncertainty and the decision of the Federal Reserve on the interest rate, and with the exit/non-exit of Britain from the EU.
    It should be noted that even if there is no exit without a deal and Brexit gets a delay, it can still have a negative impact on the Euro exchange rate, as a result of which the pair will rush to the minimum of October 01 in the area of 1.0880, which can be reached during November. 70% of experts agree with this forecast. The main supports are located at 1.1065, 1.1000 and 1.0940 levels.
    The signing of the agreement with the EU, supported by the UK Parliament, will push the pair up into the 1.1350-1.1400 zone. Resistances are at 1.1180, 1.1240 and 1.1300;

    - GBP/USD. Most experts (60%) do not expect anything good for the pound in the near future. In full agreement with the graphical analysis on D1 and 80% of the indicators on H4, they are waiting for the pair to fall to the level of 1.2500. Supports are 1.2770 and 1.2580.
    On the other hand, 20% of oscillators on H4 already give signals the pair is oversold, and 90% of their "colleagues" on D1 are painted green. 85% of trend indicators on D1 are looking to the north as well, the target is the height of 1.3200.
    There were only 30% of experts in the list of "green activists" this week. The remaining 10% refused to give any forecasts and, perhaps, they are right: British politicians are able to turn any arguments, calculations and forecasts to dust;

    - USD/JPY. In theory, the targets for the yen have remained unchanged. Support zones are 107.00, 106.65 and 105.70, those of resistance are109.00 and 109.85. But this is in theory. In reality, long-term bonds, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, remain squeezed in a narrow range, curbing the risk appetite of investors. Of course, the above events of the week, as well as the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate on Thursday 31 October could fuel interest in the yen, but this is again in theory. With almost 100% probability, the regulator will leave the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%.
    Interestingly, analysts at J. P. Morgan Chase believe negative Central Bank rates are a "bad idea" that only prevents economies from emerging from recession. 80% of the surveyed experts agree with them, expecting that the yen will continue to fall, the pair will finally break through the upper limit of the corridor 108.45-108.75 and rise a little further to the north. But the graphical analysis on H4 predicts the continuation of this sideways trend at least for the first half of the week;

    – cryptocurrencies. So, during the week, the BTC/USD pair first rapidly lost $1,000 in price, then even more rapidly rose by $3,000, and then collapsed again, shrinking in price by $1,445. Trying to give any forecast in the conditions of such volatility is a thankless task. Focusing on technical analysis tools is generally useless. It is necessary to give the market the opportunity to calm down a little and understand what the Chinese President really meant.
    [​IMG]


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
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