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Daily market analysis by NordFX

Discussion in 'Market Forecasts and Analysis' started by Julia NordFX, Jan 25, 2013.

  1. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 01-05, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. It was two weeks ago that most experts predicted the rebound of the pair up. The target for the bulls was to return to the level of 1.1350, and then rise to the zone 1.1420-1.1450. This forecast came true, if not by 100%, then by 99%: the pair recorded a local high at the height of 1.1411 on June 25. There followed a slight reversal after that, and, waiting for the results of negotiations at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, the pair turned into a sideways trend in the narrow channel 1.1345-1.1390, ending the working week at 1.1370;

    - GBP/USD. After jumps of 250 points in the second decade of June, the British currency calmed down a bit, and the past week was relatively calm for it. The pair returned to the corridor 1.2650-1.2765 and finished the week near the strong support/resistance zone 1.2700;

    - USD/JPY. The currency of the G20 host country, Japan, came close to the monthly Pivot Point as well. In the run-up to the meeting of US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G-20 leaders meeting, demand for safe haven currencies fell slightly, pushing off from the low of the last 5.5 months at 106.77, the pair rose to 107.90 yen for 1 US dollar;

    - Cryptocurrencies. “Bitcoin does not stop!”, some exclaim. “It is easily stopped,” others grin. One thing is clear: those who were the first to take the train leaving in the right direction and got off at the right stop can get a huge profit. Those who jumped into the last car or mixed up the trains will receive huge losses.
    Bitcoin grew from $7,500 to $13,765 just in the last three weeks, that is, more than 80%. And then, in just two days, it crashed to $10,390, shrinking 25%. And the next day, again an increase of 15%...
    Interestingly, at the time of the BTC fall by 25%, the capitalization of the crypto market declined by only 13% (from $367.42 billion to $318.61 billion). This suggests that many investors are in no hurry to take profits and get rid of their bitcoins but expect its growth to continue.
    At the same time, analysts warn that one should not expect the same rise from altcoins. This is clearly seen even in the charts of the TOP cryptocurrencies, such as, for example, Litecoin (LTC/USD) or Ripple (XRP/USD). But Ethereum (ETH/USD) quite accurately repeats the dynamics of the reference coin.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Markets do not expect any breakthrough solutions from the work of the G20 summit. The bilateral talks between the leaders of the world's most powerful economies at this forum, and, first of all, the talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump on Saturday June 29, are of much greater interest. Investors are hoping for a decrease in the intensity in the trading opposition of these countries, and if this happens, on Monday trading in the foreign exchange market may open with gaps.
    However, many analysts still look at this event calmly enough and believe that there will be no global truce in this war. Tariffs have affected 10,000 categories of goods from China, and one of the conditions voiced by Beijing, is the cancellation by the United States of all the existing duties. The probability that Trump will go to such a step is close to zero. The ban on cooperation with the Chinese company Huawei is unlikely to be lifted either. The parties will warmly smile at each other, shake hands, but hardly any of them will make serious concessions. Such a zero (or minimal) result of the meeting will allow Trump, on the eve of the presidential election in the United States, to announce his next “victory”, and for China to gain time.
    In such a situation, the US Federal Reserve will become an important figure in this “chess game”, which, against the background of falling global stock indices, will still be forced to ease its monetary policy, which will lead to a weakening of the US currency.
    The weaker US macroeconomic data, which will be released next week, may push the Fed to reduce interest rates. Indicators of the ISM business activity index will be known on July 1 and July 3, and data from the labor market (including NFP) will traditionally be made public on the first Friday of the month, July 05
    A quarter of experts believe that the Fed may cut rates by 25 or even 50 basis points very soon, at its meeting on July 31. The market hopes to get more accurate signals from the speeches of FOMC member Richard Clarida in Finland on July 1 and Fed Vice Chairman John Williams on July 2 in Zurich.
    On the other hand, the political risks and economic problems of the Eurozone have not disappeared. And it is not excluded that the ECB will also undertake an additional package of measures to stimulate the economy, and this will happen at the meeting on July 25.
    It is not possible to give any specific forecast for the upcoming week, since the opinions of the experts are almost equally divided. However, if you go to the monthly and medium-term forecasts, 75% of analysts believe that the pair will definitely make another attempt to update the lows of spring 2019 and still break through the support in the 1.1100 zone. The following targets for bears are 1.0900 and 1.0800. In the opinion of the remaining 25% experts, the 1.1100 zone is the limit of the fall, and the pair expects growth to the zone of 1.1530-1.1650.
    As for the indicators, most of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored green. However, it is already 20% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is overbought;

    - GBP/USD. British Prime Minister Theresa May gradually fades away, and her most likely successor, Boris Johnson, becomes the main newsmaker on Brexit. He stated last week that, becoming the head of the government, he would do everything possible to preserve the possibility of “hard” withdrawal of his country from the EU, without a deal. According to Johnson, such a threat will strengthen his position in negotiations with the European Union, and for this the politician is even ready to set a recess in the work of Parliament.
    The markets have already reacted to such rhetoric by the pound falling against the euro. As for GBP/USD, here, most experts (65%) expect the British currency to further weaken, and the pair will fall first to 1.2475-1.2500 and then, during July, to January 3, 2019 low, 1.2400.
    35% of analysts still keep optimism and hope for a positive course of negotiations with the EU. In this case, the pair will continue to move up. The immediate goals are 1.2775 and 1.2830, then 1.2930.
    The compromise option in the form of cyclic movement on the channel 1.2500-1.2860 is offered by graphical analysis on D1;

    - USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the most likely outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chairman X on the G20 is the continuation of endless and fruitless talks between the two countries. In such a situation, global stock indices are waiting for a fall, US monetary policy is easing, and the dollar is weakening. Investors will naturally respond to all this by increasing the demand for defensive assets, including the yen.
    However, this not a case for one day, and not even one week. In the meantime, only 40% of experts and D1 graphical analysis vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shake shoulders. Approximately the same situation is with the oscillators and trend indicators on D1.
    Support levels are in zones 106.80-107.00, then 105.50-106.00. Resistances are at 108.85, 109.70 and 110.65;

    - Cryptocurrencies. - Morgan Creek Digital's founder and partner, Anthony "Pomp" Pompliano has predicted the growth of Bitcoin to $100 thousand in his letter addressed to the company's customers. In his opinion, the probability of such a development in the next 2.5 years is 70-75%.
    A similar forecast is given by a well-known trader and analyst Peter Brandt. “Bitcoin is looking at $100,000. The BTC/USD pair is going through the fourth parabolic phase since 2010. No other market has looked like this on logarithmic graphics in my 45 years of trading,” he writes.
    But one of the Fundstrat Global Advisors founders Tom Lee as well as 45 experts believe that Bitcoin expects a powerful correction. And it’s not at all the fact that the fall of BTC / USD by 25% on July 26-27 was exactly that. Analysts do not rule out a decrease in the pair to $7,500-8,000.
    As for the altcoins from the TOP-10, judging by the capitalization graphs, they are gradually losing ground to digital currency No. 1. Thus, it is only Bitcoin that has shown growth over the past 12 months, increasing its share in the total market capitalization from 41% to 66%. The share of the other coins either falls or, at best, remains at the same level.
    [​IMG]

    P.S. As forecasted above, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations on the basis of "mutual respect and equality."


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    https://nordfx.com/
     
  2. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 08-12, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As forecasted, the meeting of US President Donald Trump with PRC President Xi Jinping on the final day of the Osaka summit did not put an end to the trade war. The leaders were able to agree only on a respite in the hostilities and the resumption of trade and economic consultations. However, this result was perceived by the market with moderate optimism. The dollar was strengthening its positions for the whole day of Monday, having dropped the pair almost 100 points. This was followed by a long lull, which could only be broken by the publication of data from the US labor market on Friday. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased more than three times in June compared with May (from 72K to 224K), which allowed the dollar to press the euro further. The pair almost reached the level of 1.1200, after which a small rebound followed, and it ended the trading session at 1.1225;

    - GBP/USD. The main candidate for the post of British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, continues to play the role of "horror" for markets. Johnson's statements regarding the possibility of a "hard" Brexit, without a deal, put pressure on the pound, dropping its quotes to the levels of the end of 2016 - beginning of 2017. It is natural that the positive statistics from the American labor market influenced the dynamics of the pair as well. As a result, the forecast that had been given by most experts last week turned out to be correct. As expected, the pair recorded a local low in the 1.2480 zone, after which it climbed 45 points, where it met the end of the working five-day session;

    - USD/JPY. Recall that a clear forecast for this pair could not be formed a week ago.40% of the experts had voted for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the movement of the pair to the south. Another 30% turned their looks to the north, while the rest of the analysts just shrugged shoulders. As a result, they were all right: the pair dropped to the level of 107.52 by the middle of the week, and then turned up and on Friday, July 5, it returned to the highs of Monday, July 01. Thus, the dollar was able to win back only about 55 points from the yen in five days, practically keeping within the boundaries of the side corridor of the first half of this June;

    - Cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD updated the two-week low last Tuesday, dropping to $9.725. That is, after an explosive growth of 155% in May-June, Bitcoin lost almost half of what it earned in these two months in just seven days, from June 26 to July 2. There is nothing surprising in this cryptocurrency volatility. And many experts talk about possible corrections of 30% and even 50%. But is it possible to call such fluctuations a “correction”?
    After the fall, Bitcoin turned around and somewhat regained its position, rising to $11,100 by the evening of Friday July 5th. Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), following the benchmark coin, showed similar ups and downs. On average, the weekly range of fluctuations of coins was from 17% to 23%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. Market reacted with great attention to the June data on employment in the US. According to many experts, they may influence the decision of the Fed regarding the interest rate reduction. According to forecasts, this could happen at the meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 31. A low NFP would seriously increase the likelihood of a rate cut by 25 or even 50 basis points. But, as mentioned above, NFP has grown more than 3 times. It turns out that the situation in the US economy is not so critical. So why then pursue a policy of easing and give away cheap money?
    Investors will try to hear the answer to this question from the speeches of Fed Chairman J.Powell on July 09, 10 and 11, as well as read in the lines of the minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday July 10.
    The ECB meeting will take place this Wednesday. Markets are also expecting additional measures to stimulate the EU economy from the European regulator. Hour X is scheduled for July 25.
    In whose direction the scales will swing is not yet clear. The easing of the monetary policy by the Fed may weaken the dollar. A similar easing by the ECB will push the euro down. And it can happen at the same time. Just one observation: the yield of 30-year German government bonds showed a decrease, up to a base point, which coincided with the dynamics of the yield of 30-year US bonds.
    By the way, couple of words about Germany. This country will publish a number of macroeconomic data on Monday, July 8, including statistics on the trade balance for May. According to forecasts, it may be positive, which will somewhat strengthen the position of the euro.
    However, despite this, 60% of experts believe that the pair has not yet reached the local bottom and expect to see it in the zone of 1.1100-1.1185. 90% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D 1 agree with them. As for the remaining 40% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair will not be able to break through support in the 1.1185 zone and will return to 1.1275-1.1320. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1400. It should be noted that in the transition from the weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases from 40% to 65%. They are supported by 20% of the oscillators that are now in the oversold zone;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. Despite statements by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, most experts believe that neither on August 1, nor even on September 19 will interest rates on the pound be reduced. Hope on the "soft" Brexit does not fade. This provides a support to the British currency, although minor. Another positive factor for the pound is that this currency has now reached the zone of a three-week low. That is why 60% of experts expect the pair to rebound up and keep in the range of 1.125 0-1.2750. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2570 and 1.2700.
    Supported by the graphical analysis on D1, 40% of analysts adhere to the opposite point of view, according to which the pair should fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, to the zone 1.2405-1.2475.
    As for the indicators, the vast majority of them are red on both H4 and D1. However, already about 15% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold;

    - USD/JPY. Interest in the yen is weakening against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar and the growing attractiveness of risky assets. But it is only 40% of analysts who expect that the pair will be able to overcome resistance in the area of 108.50-108.80 and rise to the echelon of 109.00-109.60. The remaining 60% of experts believe that the pair will move for some time in the side channel 107.55-108.50, attempting to break through its lower boundary, and, if successful, can sink to the horizon 106.75. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1, which are in the overbought zone, signal about the possible movement of the pair downwards;

    - Cryptocurrencies. In general, the news background is positive for the crypto market. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to attract major experienced investors. For example, according to Bloomberg, the billionaire from the “old guard”, 75-year-old Henry R. Kravis, could not resist either and has recently become an investor in the cryptocurrency fund of ParaFi Capital. Interest in Bitcoin has peaked in the past 17 months. The subject has bypassed by the number of requests in Google Donald Trump and Kim Kardashian, who previously occupied the first and second places. Even the Chinese authorities have changed their attitude to cryptocurrencies. In the report of the official information agency of the country, Xinhua, bitcoin was called an asset that has the characteristics of an ideal “safe haven” for investors.
    The optimistic forecast remains the same: $50-100 thousand per BTC coin in the next one and a half years. At the same time, “correction” drop downs are possible, reaching 50 percent or more. In the meantime, 30% of experts say that the BTC/USD pair may drop to support $9,200, 40% expect it to rise to a height of $14,000, and 30% talk about lateral movement in the channel $9,725-12,200.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  3. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 15-19, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Recall that 60% of experts named the zone 1.1100-1.1185 as a local bottom. As for the remaining 40%, in their opinion, support 1.1185 should have become an insurmountable obstacle, after which analysts had expected the pair to return to {1level 1.1275-1.1320. That's exactly what happened: the bottom was fixed at 1.1190, after which the pair turned around and went up, reaching the height of 1.1285 at the maximum. Then there was a bounce, and the pair completed the five-day week at the Pivot Point level of the first half of summer,1.1270;

    - GBP/USD. The line graph of the pair on D1 resembles a parabola, which, in general, reflects the two main forecasts of experts. 40% of them expected the pair to fall to the lows of December 2018 - January 2019, and it dropped to 1.2438. And then, as other analysts expected, the pair headed north, where it was stopped by resistance 1.2575;

    - USD/JPY. 40% of analysts hoped that the pair would be able to overcome the resistance of 108.80 and rise to the level 109.00-109.60. It seemed that this forecast was about to come true. However, the pair did not manage to touch the horizon of 109.00: not gaining just a couple of points, it collapsed down and returned to the strong support of June-July 2019 in the zone 107.85;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's extremely high volatility continues to keep investors and traders in constant tension, since fluctuations of 10-15-20% can not only enrich, but also ruin anyone in a short time. The reason, first of all, is the thin market. It is so thin that any fixation of profits by a major player, any more or less loud news, causes serious jumps in the rate.
    For example, the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that Facebook should not be allow ed to launch its Libra cryptocurrency until the company settles all issues with regulatory authorities, turned the BTC/USD quotes down by 15% on Wednesday. Although it would seem, bitcoin should only be better in the absence of such a powerful competitor as Libra. As a result, the upward trend of the beginning of the week was interrupted and the pair returned to July 7 values in the $11,000-11,850 zone.
    The stress tolerance of altcoins was significantly lower than that of the basic cryptocurrency. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) lost 7% in seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) lost 11%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) lost 13%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by expectations of a coming decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and easing of the ECB’s monetary policy. In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scale swing?
    There is a high risk of slowing economic growth noted in the latest protocol of the European regulator. And if the situation does not improve in the near future (and why should it improve?), The ECB is ready to lower interest rates and increase bond purchases under the QE program. It is not necessary that this will be announced on July 25, however, the ECB meeting scheduled for this day should nevertheless bring some clarity.
    It is possible that the issue of monetary policy easing, but this time in the United States, will also be addressed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak on Tuesday, July 16 at a conference in Paris. He will read a report on the features of monetary policy in the post-crisis era there, and the tonality of this report can have a strong influence on the dollar rate.
    Another important event that could affect the dollar pairs will be the publication of data on the growth rate of China's GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019. This will take place on Monday, July 15, and many experts expect a rather strong slowdown in the economic growth of the Middle Kingdom, which can provide serious support to the US currency.
    As for trend indicators and oscillators, they are in antiphase on H4 and D1: if most of them are green in H4, the picture is the opposite on the day time frame.
    The forecasts of the majority (65%) of experts are also painted red, they expect further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the zone of 1.1150-1.1200. The next target of the bears is the zone 1.1100-1.1115. As for the bulls, they see their goal in raising the pair to tier 1.1350-1.1410;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. Statistics on the labor market, wage growth rates and unemployment rates in the UK will be published on Tuesday, July 16. And on Wednesday, July 17, we will know the data on inflation. But experts expect no surprises from either of them.
    At the moment, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis and most of the indicators on D1, expect the pound to test support 1.2440 again and, if successful, drop to the low of January 3, 2019 at the level of 1.2405.
    The remaining 40% of experts advise to open positions on the buy. There are two main arguments: the increase in the spread of government bonds profitability in the UK and the USA, and the rising oil prices. Both of these factors should push the pound up.The nearest resistance is 1.2755, the next is 1.2825;

    - USD / JPY. It is known that this pair has a strong correlation with the US stock market, and on the eve of the Dow Jones Industrial Average - for the first time in history! - Overcame the mark of 27.000 and reached last Friday the mark of 27.330. The pair may show growth to the 108.50-109.00 zone against this background. The next target is 109.65. However, only 30% of analysts voted for such a scenario. The majority of experts (70%), with the support of 90% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to decline to June lows around 106.75-107.00.
    As for the graphical analysis on D1, it draws the lateral movement of the pair in the channel 107.70-109.00 with the predominance of bullish moods;

    - Cryptocurrencies. If on H4 and D1 time frames we observe lateral movement of the BTC/USD pair with gradual consolidation around $ 11,500-12,000 for the third week, the picture looks much more optimistic on W1 and MN: the uptrend is in full swing.
    Positive predictions are made by many experts. For example, it was for the first time that the American rating agency Weiss Ratings assigned A-grade to Bitcoin, stressing that at the moment the potential benefits of investing in the first cryptocurrency exceed the risks. And Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Yusko suggested that the current market cycle could raise the price of Bitcoin to a new historical high of $30,000. Bitcoin mining is also growing. Researchers at Cambridge University have shown that today this process consumes more electricity than such countries as Switzerland or Kuwait. However, no one can predict yet at what point a new jump will occur, and experts' forecasts for the upcoming week do not go beyond the range of $9,725-13,765.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  4. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 22 - 26, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. Recall that the majority (65%) of experts expected further strengthening of the dollar and the slide of the pair to the 1.1150-1.1200 zone. And the pair went down, reaching the level of 1.1200 on the night of July 16-17. However, the strength of the bears dried up there and, two days later, the bulls returned the pair to where it started on Monday July 15, to the level of 1.1285. Thus, for the second week in a row, the pair is in a fairly narrow side channel, limiting its fluctuations to the boundaries of 1.1190 and 1.1285. The reason for such a lull (perhaps before the storm) is not the summer holidays of investors, but their expectation of the ECB meeting on Thursday July 25, at which the European regulator may decide to lower the interest rate;

    - GBP/USD. If you look at the D1 chart, you can say that the pound experienced another technical correction last week. The reason for this was strong data on wages and retail sales in the UK. But on the whole, everything was developing exactly as the majority (60%) of the experts had supposed. Being in a downtrend since mid-March, the pair first tested the support in the 1.2440 zone again, then, breaking through it, reached the January 3, 2019.low, 1.2405, after which it dropped another 25 points and, groping the bottom at the level of 1.2380, turned up. As part of the correction, the pair rose by almost 180 points, and ended the week in the 1.2500 zone;

    - USD/JPY. In general, the dynamics of the pair corresponded to analysts' forecasts. However, volatility was slightly lower than expected. So, against the background of the strong growth of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, a third of the experts waited from the pair to rise to the zone 108.50-109.00 at the beginning of the week. However, the bulls managed to raise it only to the height of 108.37. After that, the initiative went to the bears and, as predicted by 70% of analysts, the pair went south - to the lows of June around of 106.75-107.00. But here it missed the target by some 20 points as well. The fall stopped at 107.20. This was followed by another trend reversal, and the pair met the end of the week at around 107.70;

    - Cryptocurrencies. US authorities have literally turned against Facebook's intentions to launch its cryptocurrency Libra. Moreover, the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives has prepared a bill to ban the release of cryptocurrencies not only by Facebook, but also by any other large companies with annual profits above $25 billion (for example, Google). If Trump signs this law, violators will pay a fine of $1 million per day. And although Facebook’s profit from Libra may be higher than this amount, the company may refuse this project, not wanting to aggravate relations with the authorities.
    Against this background, Bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a four-week low at around $9.080. True, then there was a rebound upwards, as a result of which the losses of the BTC/USD pair decreased and amounted to about 11% in seven days.
    Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD) went down as well. But Litecoin (LTC/USD) was able to return to its original values in the second half of the week: on the eve of the halving in August, investors found this altcoin undervalued and began buying it.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The markets continue to be ruled by the expectations of a quick decline in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. As was said, the market does not exclude that the European regulator will announce this already next Thursday, on July 25th. Although many experts believe that until the end of September the rate will remain at the same level, that is, zero. In the first case, the pair can go down sharply. In the second case, sharp fluctuations in the rate are not likely to be expected. Moreover, despite the slowdown in economic growth, the situation in the Eurozone is not so bad: manufacturers' prices are still growing, and the current operations surplus in June was almost €30 billion (compared with €22.5 billion in April). And this despite the trade wars!
    It is interesting to see what the US will do in this situation? President Trump was outraged in his Twitter saying that the quantitative easing policy by the ECB and the depreciation of the euro against the dollar will allow the EU to "unfairly easier compete with the United States." "Europe is getting away with it for years - along with China and others!”, Trump wrote, which strengthened investors' expectations regarding the devaluation of the dollar and the rate cut by the Fed.
    In whose direction, the euro or the dollar, will the scales swing? There are more questions than answers. Moreover, the statements of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin are directly opposed to what Trump says and writes. So, recently, after the meeting of G7 finance ministers in France, Mnuchin assured journalists that there was no change in the policy of a strong dollar at the moment.
    In the meantime, the absolute majority of experts - 75%! - expect the pair to rise to the height of 1.1350-1.1415. The nearest resistance is 1.1285.
    The remaining 25% of analysts and 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 strongly disagree with them. They all expect the pair to decline to the spring lows in the area of 1.1100-1.1115.
    As for the events that may affect the formation of short-term trends, this week we can note the release of the following data: July 23 - results of a study of bank lending in the Eurozone, July 24 - indicators of Markit business index in Germany and the Eurozone, and annual data on US GDP, which will see the light on Friday July 26th.

    - GBP/USD. On Tuesday, the minutes of the UK Financial Policy Committee meeting will be published. However, this rather important document is unlikely to be noticed by the market against the background of another event that will also happen on this day. On July 23, the British Conservative Party, after the counting of votes, will announce the name of the new prime minister. Recall that there are two candidates for this position: the former mayor of London and the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, and the current foreign minister, Jeremy Hunt. And the fate of Brexit depends on who of them will occupy this post - how will the process of leaving the EU go, whether it will be completed and under what conditions.
    Most analysts (65%) expect the pound to strengthen and the pair to grow to the zone of 1.2650-1.2750. The nearest resistance is 1.2575. The remaining 35% of experts believe that before it goes up, the pair should still return to the zone 1.2380-1.2405. Graphic analysis on D1 takes an even more radical position. According to his forecast, the pair can break through support in the 1.2400 zone and drop another 200 points within two weeks;

    - USD/JPY. For this pair, graphical analysis on D1 draws first a movement in the range of 106.75-108.35, and then rising to the height of 109.00. However, only 40% of experts agree with this forecast, their opinion is based on recently published macroeconomic statistics.
    Recall that the purpose of the Bank of Japan is the inflation rate of 2%. However, its achievement can only be dreamed of. The inflation in June 2019 turned out to be exactly the same as a year ago and was only 0.7%. In such a situation, the Japanese regulator may start thinking about lowering the interest rate, as their colleagues in the Asia-Pacific region have already done - Australia, India, Indonesia and South Korea.
    The remaining 60% of analysts believe such a move by the Bank of Japan is unlikely. In their opinion, the probability of a decrease in the dollar rate at the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 31 is significantly higher. In this case, the pair can not only descend to the horizon of 106.75, but also, breaking through it, rush to the January 2019 low in the zone 105.00. 90% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on D1 are siding with the bears;
    [​IMG]

    - Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, July 19, the BTC/USD pair was in the area of a strong four-week support level (and now resistance level already) $10,500. And although it is impossible at the moment to formulate any kind of definite opinion, in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%) vote for the growth of the pair.
    In this case, problems of Facebook, Google and other large companies with the release of their own altcoins can play into the hands of bitcoin. Unlike Libra, bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency, and therefore the US government will not be able to blame anyone about its release and regulation anyone. Moreover, the conspiracy theorism has again surfaced that the patronage of bitcoin is none other than the US Treasury, which will do everything possible to eliminate the competitors of this reference digital asset.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  5. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 05 - 09, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - USD. Two events took place last week, more precisely on Thursday 01 and Friday 02 August, that could shake the markets. But they did not shake them.
    On Thursday, for the first time since 2008, the US Federal Reserve lowered its key rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The event was quite expected. Markets usually react to such a move, by dropping quotes. However, in this case, instead of falling, the dollar rose, although not by much (the increase against EUR was a little more than 100 points) and not for long (as of Friday, the euro won back 85 points).
    The main reason for the growth of the American currency was the comment by Jerome Powell, in which the Fed chief said that this rate cut by 25 basis points would not necessarily mark the beginning of a consistent easing policy. Indirectly, his words were confirmed by the fact that the rate was reduced by only 0.25%, and not by 0.50%, and two FOMC members voted against any reduction.
    Thus, the Federal Reserve was the least “soft” against the background of the central banks of other countries pursuing a policy of easing, which led to a short-term growth of the dollar.
    The second planned event was the release of statistics on the US labor market. As predicted, NFP fell slightly (from 193K to 164K), to which the market reacted rather sluggishly, especially since the main newsmaker at the end of the week was - unexpected for many! - Donald Trump. (Well, who can do without him!)
    For a start, the US president called Powell's behavior a betrayal, and then put an end to the fragile truce in the US-China trade war, announcing the introduction of a 10% duty on Chinese goods worth $300 billion on September 1. Such a move by Trump sharply increased the chances further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, in spite of Powell's statements. Thus, the probability of the next rate reduction in September increased from 64% to 92%, in December - from 42% to 75%.
    The threat of a new round of hostilities in the war with China brought down the American stock market, and investors once again turned their attention to a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen, which strengthened against the dollar by 275 points at the end of the week;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Without a doubt, Bitcoin was, is and will be the digital currency number 1, which reigns at the crypto market, making up the bulk of its capitalization and determining the trends and quotes of the vast majority of altcoins. And although sometimes there are voices offering to give, for example, Ethereum the status of a full-fledged coin, placing it next to Bitcoin, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
    As for the news background, which often defines a particular trend, it has recently become quite ambiguous. Thus, the largest social network Facebook has declared that the launch of the project of its own digital currency Libra may be canceled due to significant pressure from the regulator, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
    On the one hand, it seems to be good for Bitcoin: there will be one strong competitor less. On the other hand, after crushing Libra, the authorities can firmly take on the crypto market as a whole. Calls on this matter do not stop for a minute. For example, The United States Revenue Service (IRS) has recently sent letters to more than 10 thousand investors demanding to include information about cryptocurrency assets in their tax return, otherwise violators will be fined.
    In the meantime, the pair BTC/USD continues to move in the side channel, trying to overcome the resistance of $10,500. Major altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), are also moving in a sideways trend with low volatility. It can be assumed that the main reason for such calm is the middle of summer, when investors, legislators, and even tax inspectors go on vacation. Although it may be just a lull before the next storm.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. The pair in its fall is now close to Pivot Point 2015-2016. And, although the rebound up on Friday, August 02, colored the indicators on H4 in a neutral gray color, 90% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1 still insist on the continuation of the downward trend. 65% of experts agree that the American currency still has potential for growth, and it will continue to put pressure on the euro. The immediate goal for the pair is 1.0950, the next one is 100 points lower.
    At the moment, only 35% of analysts turned out to side with the bulls, however, in anticipation of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, when moving to the medium-term forecast, their number rises to 55%.
    If we turn to the indications of graphical analysis, it draws first the movement of the pair in the range of 1.1070-1.1165 on H4, and then its growth to the horizon of 1.1225. The next resistance is at 1.1285;

    - GBP/USD. Since April 2018, the British currency weakened against the US dollar by 2,300 points. The last days did not become an exception: the pound lost 430 points since July 25. The reason is the same, Brexit. The coming to power of Boris Johnson and his promise to part with the EU on October 31 on a “tough” scenario make investors nervous and the pound fall.
    75% of experts expect to see the pair in the 1.2000 zone soon. And if it manages to break through this support, it will be able to “fly” down another 100-150 points. This development is supported by 95% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators on D1.
    The remaining 10% of oscillators give signals about the pair being oversold. A respite is also expected by graphical analysis on D1 and by 25% of analysts, according to whom the pair can go to a side movement in the channel 1.2100-1.2250 for a while. In the case of any positive news regarding Brexit, growth of the pair to the level of 1.2375 is not excluded.
    As for the medium-term forecast, according to 70% of analysts, the Bank of England will eventually be forced to acknowledge the serious risks of a “tough” exit from the EU and sharply tighten monetary policy. Thus, it will be the only large central bank to raise interest rates, which should lead to an increase in quotations of the British currency and their rise above the level of 1.2800. However, this can happen only when at least the basic conditions for the British exit from the EC become known;

    - USD/JPY. The escalation of trade confrontation between the United States and China and the reduction in the interest rate on the US dollar increase the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. Therefore, 60% of analysts expect the pair to continue to decline in an effort to reach the January 2019 low around 105.00. 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on D1 also look to the south. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving signals about the pair being oversold. Resistance levels are 107.80, 109.00 and 110.00;
    [​IMG]

    - Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin holders try to find any arguments to push it up. Any reasons are suitable for this, even the Fed's interest rate cut: having lost interest in the dollar, investors will start investing in more profitable and risky assets, like Bitcoin. Although, if you think about it, what prevented them from doing so before? The rate cut by 0.25% is a very weak argument in this case.
    Billionaire and head of the crypto-bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novograz said in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of Bitcoin will rise again to the historical maximum of $20 thousand per unit before the end of this year. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the course of bidding quotations may drop to $8,500 for 1 BTC. And popular presenter Joe Kernen has announced on CNBC television channel the rise of BTC to $55,000. In May 2020, bitcoin mining will be halved, which, in his opinion, should lead to a rapid increase in the value of the coin, thanks to its aggressive purchases before halving.
    As for short-term forecasts, despite the fact that Bitcoin reached $10,650 on August 2, it will be possible to talk about the transition to sustainable growth only after the BTC/USD pair has confidently crossed the $11,000 mark. In the meantime, experts are divided into two equal camps. But all of them, both optimists and pessimists, call the horizon $10,000 as a Pivot Point.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  6. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 12-16, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - USD/EUR. The pair is consolidating in the zone of a strong support/resistance level around 1.1200. In general, the zone 1.1150-1.1215 is quite significant for this pair, since it can be called the main Pivot Point of 2015-2016. And now, after three years, the pair has once again fallen into this range, which may indicate some confusion in the market.
    Uncertainty factors are many.
    Firstly, this is the beginning of another round in the US-China trade war. Introducing 10 percent duties on the next group of Chinese goods from September 1, the US president did not stop there, he called China “currency manipulator” and is planning to postpone the issuance of licenses for US companies to trade with Huawei.
    In addition to the external war, Trump has to wage an internal war, with his own Fed. He wrote in his Twitter on Thursday August 08: “Our companies are the greatest in the world, there is nobody even close, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong at every step of the way...". It is about stimulating the American economy, which is one step away from the recession, for which Trump blames the strong dollar. “The Fed’s high interest rates,” he writes, “in comparison to other countries, is keeping the dollar high, making it more difficult for our great manufacturers...to compete on a level playing field.”
    So, the market expects steps from the US leadership aimed at preventing an industrial downturn. But the ECB is expected to take the same steps, since the Eurozone economy, undermined by economic wars and political instability within the EU, is not in the best condition either, and the yield of German bonds have reached record lows. However, lowering the interest rate for the euro is a double-edged sword. By stimulating industrial growth, this step will create serious problems for the banking system in Europe. According to Bloomberg experts, lowering the rate on euro deposits to -0.5% will increase banks' expenses associated with servicing negative rates by 60%.
    Investors are not happy with the ongoing drop in oil prices either. Saudi Arabia is making a lot of efforts to maintain the price of “black gold” at least at the current level, but the results of these steps remain doubtful;

    - GBP/USD and USD/JPY. Most experts had expected a decline on both of these pairs. And if you look at the results of the week, the forecast turned out to be correct on the whole, although not one of them reached its goals. Thus, 75% of analysts expected to see GBP/USD around 1.2000, but the week low was fixed slightly higher, at the level of 1.2025. Thus, the loss of the British pound against the dollar amounted to about 135 points.

    - As for USD/JPY, unlike the pound, the yen continued to strengthen against the US currency. Analysts (60%) had expected the pair to be able to reach the January 2019 low at around 105.00. However, the fall was stopped at the horizon of 105.40 (minus 120 points during the week) , after which there was a rebound upwards, and the pair completed the five-day period at 105.65;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Former CEO of Google and Facebook, Avichal Garg, is sure that the real dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is much higher than the figure published by cryptocurrency services, and actually exceeds 75%. According to Garg, it is necessary to revise the current measurement standards, since now they take into account the huge number of altcoins with zero liquidity. And it is not at all excluded that soon we will see the share of bitcoin exceed the mark of 80%, or even 90%. An argument in favor of this development is that BTC is gradually becoming a very popular safe haven asset. “Bitcoin has proven to be a hedge against global risks, because it shows a positive correlation with gold and a negative correlation with the stock markets,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and senior analyst at Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. And, looking at the charts of the last week, one cannot disagree with him. Usually, top altcoins repeated the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. Now, despite the fact that the BTC/USD pair has shown steady growth, adding about $1,500 during the week and gaining a foothold in the $11,550-12,120 zone, the main altcoins, including Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), finished the week in the red zone. Although, of course, it is too early to bury them completely. According to some experts, several alternative cryptocurrencies (for example, Ethereum) can become stand-alone blockchains, ceasing to be considered altcoins. The rest will go into oblivion as unnecessary.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. If on H4 both trend indicators and oscillators are still pointing north, D1 has a completely different picture: about half of the indicators are colored red, and another 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 and 60% of experts sided with the bears as well, they expect that, having pushed off the resistance of 1.1200, the pair will once again test support in the zone of 1.1025. In their opinion, the euro quotes at 1.1200 are now supported mainly due to the growth of interest in protective assets. However, the fragile balance, in addition to the situation with Brexit and a new aggravation of the political situation in Italy, can be disturbed even by weak data on GDP growth in the Eurozone, which will be released on Wednesday, August 14.
    A reduction in the state budget deficit and positive data on inflation in the USA can also play a role in strengthening the dollar. What these numbers will actually be will be announced on Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 14, respectively.
    The remaining 40% of analysts vote for the growth of the pair to the zone 1.1275-1.1345. Their forecast is based on the expectation of a recession and a further decline in interest rates in the United States. Thus, Wall Street Journal analysts estimate the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 33.6% (a year ago it was18.3%), which is the highest rate since 2011. And predicting a change in the rate, experts believe that by the end of 2019 it will fall from 2.25% to 1.85%;
    [​IMG]

    - GBP/USD. On Tuesday morning, August 13, the UK will present a portion of labor market data that is expected to be neutral at best and weak at worst. As for inflation, its indicators, which will be released on August 14, are likely to remain at the same level. In general, experts are not expecting any significant changes in the pound this week, and therefore their forecast can be classified as neutral.
    As for the technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. Graphical analysis also Indicates to a continued fall of the pair. Moreover, it is already 25% of the oscillators that indicate overselling of the pair, which is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction.
    Support Levels: January 2017 lows - 1.1985 and October 2016 lows - 1.1945. Resistance Levels: 1.2210, 1.2415, 1.2525;

    - USD/JPY. As already mentioned, the desire of investors to shelter their capital in quiet harbors continues to grow. And 35% of analysts are sure that the Japanese currency will continue to play the role of such a harbor, and therefore the fall of the pair will continue until the January 3, 2019 low at the level of 105.00. Next support is March 2018 low 104.60. Graphical analysis on Н4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario.
    30% of the experts were not able to give a forecast, and the remaining 35%, together with a graphical analysis on D1, voted for the trend to reverse upward and the pair to rise to the zone 107.00-108.00. Such a scenario is also supported by 15% of the oscillators, giving signals of the pair being oversold.
    It should be noted that in the transition from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of bull supporters among experts increases sharply, from 35% to 65%, and the height of 109.00 is called the main goal;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Tom Lee is confident that, having become, along with yen and gold, a safe haven asset, Bitcoin will be able to rise to $20,000. A similar point of view has been expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek. According to him, central banks will begin to massively buy bitcoins in the near future in order to hedge dollar risks, which appeared against the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. The “epidemic” of lowering interest rate regulators will positively affect the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. Another strength of Bitcoin is its projected emission and limited supply.
    The reference cryptocurrency has grown by 93% in three months and now its immediate task is to update the highs of June 2019 in the $14,000 zone. More than 70% of experts agree with this forecast, although, in their opinion, this could happen by the end of August. In the next week, the pair will perhaps continue to move along the horizon of $12,000.


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  7. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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    Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 19 - 23, 2019


    First, a review of last week’s events:

    - EUR/USD. As expected by most experts, supported by graphical analysis, the dollar went up last week, while the EUR/USD pair went down along with the euro. True, it did not reach the set target, the low of August 1, 1.1025, having found the local bottom at the level of 1.1065.
    The reason for the fall of the European currency was in the first place, "doves" promises by the general director of the Bank of Finland and former candidate for the ECB Olli Rehn. According to the statement of this prominent European official, it is already in September that the market expects a reduction in the key rate by 0.1 (and possibly by 0.2) percentage points (now it is -0.4%), as well as the resumption of the QE quantitative easing program in volume about 50 billion euros monthly.
    In addition, not the best economic statistics from Germany and China and the unexpected growth in US retail sales played in favor of the dollar. The market had been expecting this indicator to decline from 0.7% to 0.3%, but it rose to 1.0%.

    - GBP/USD. Last week, analysts did not expect any significant changes in the British pound, so their forecast was classified as neutral. As for technical analysis, 25% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 gave signals about the overselling of the pair, which, as practice shows, is a strong signal for a trend reversal and upcoming correction. This was what happened: having rebounded from the level of 1.2015, the pair went north, fixing the week’s high at 1.2175 on Friday. The final five-day chord sounded in the 1.2140 zone, which can be called the Pivot Point of the first week of August;

    - USD/JPY. A third of analysts, supported by 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, were sure that the Japanese currency would continue to play the role of a quiet refuge from currency storms, and therefore the pair would continue to fall to the low of January 3, 2019. at the level of 105.00. That was what happened, and it was already on Monday, August 12, that the pair approached this mark.
    Another third of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 had voted for the trend to turn up and lift the pair to the height of 107.00, which it reached the next day, on Tuesday, August 13.
    The ending of the week satisfied the remaining third of specialists, who had taken a neutral position. If you look at the graph of the last two weeks, you can see that the pair moved to the side channel 105.00–107.00 and completed the working session closer to its center, at 106.35. Thus, all three scenarios can be considered fulfilled - bearish, bullish and neutral;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Crypto enthusiasts, such as Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee or Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano, continue to attempt to raise Bitcoin status, claiming it has already become a safe haven asset, along with gold or the Japanese yen. And here it is questionable, what kind of refuge it is, if only from August 08 to 15 this digital currency lost more than 20% of its value, collapsing from $12,000 to $9,500?
    With such frenzied volatility, Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an ideal tool for high-risk speculation. Well and a refuge as well, but not from fluctuations in traditional financial markets, but from ... its younger colleagues in the digital market, altcoins, the interest in which is constantly falling.
    If you look at the dynamics of the altcoin market, starting from the peak on June 26, its capitalization fell from $124 to $79 billion, that is, more than 36%. Losses of bitcoin are twice lower :18% (drop from $229 to $187 billion). Accordingly, investors are gradually losing interest even in top coins such as Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC), switching their attention to bitcoin (BTC), whose market share has already exceeded 70%.


    As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

    - EUR/USD. On one European scale, there is a slowdown in the economic growth of the EU’s most important partner - China, weak economic performance in Germany, problems of Italy and Brexit. On the other, the American one, macro statistics from the United States are pleasing to the eye and the Fed’s leadership claims that the American economy is on a solid foundation and that it doesn’t fear any trade wars. It would seem that the answer to the question on which side the advantage should be is clear: on the side of the dollar. That is exactly what 65% of experts believe, supported by almost 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The immediate goal is support in the zone 1.1000–1.1025, after breaking through which there will be only 1000 points to 1: 1 parity. At the current rate of decline, it may take a little over a year to overcome this distance. (Recall that the pair was already dropping to the level of 1.0350 in December 2016).
    However, if you imagine other scales, everything becomes not so obvious. So, on one, European, scale there is the decrease in the euro interest rate announced by Olli Rehn for September and the resuscitation of the QE program. And on the US scale - the expectation of a recession in the US economy, Donald Trump's discontent with the actions of the Fed and, as a result, a possible reduction in the dollar rate by the end of 2019 from 2.25% to 1.85%. If the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the US president, a trend reversal upward and the pair's rise to marks in the zone 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded. And if in the near future it is 35% of analysts who do not exclude such an opportunity, in the medium term their number increases to 55%.
    According to experts, the results of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, August 21 and the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will also be held next week, should give some clarity about the US financial policy. In addition, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy, which will be released on Thursday, August 22, is of great interest;

    - GBP/USD. A rather interesting situation has developed in the UK. On the one hand, production is declining, falling by 0.6% compared to last year. On the other hand, instead of the retail sales drop of 0.3% expected in July, their growth by 0.2% was noted. This may indicate that, watching the fall of the pound and fearing the consequences of Brexit, the country's residents prefer shopping rather than financial savings.
    It is not clear how long this situation will last. We need to wait for the steps of the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the reaction of the British Parliament to them. Until this happens, the respite that the pair has taken in its fall will, according to the majority (65%) of experts, continue, and the pair will stay in the side channel 1.2000–1.2200. The closest support level is 1.2050, resistance is 1.2175.
    As for the graphic analysis, both on H4 and D1, after several days of movement in the side corridor, it predicts the pair will fall to the October 2016 low in the zone 1.1900–1.1940;

    - USD/JPY. The decision of the US authorities to postpone the introduction of additional duties on Chinese imports did not help the dollar much: investors still strongly doubt the peaceful end of the US-Chinese trade war. So, the yen will continue to play the role of a quiet financial haven. The expectation of a coming recession in the US economy and lower interest rates by the US Federal Reserve also plays against the dollar. Added to this is a drop in yields on 10-year US bonds, which have already fallen to 1.6%. Moreover, the yield spread of these securities has fallen below zero. Which, in theory, should lead to further strengthening of the Japanese currency and a decrease in the pair. However, experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 are inclined to believe that the pair will stay in the side channel 105.00–107.00 for at least another week. But in the future, most of them (60%) expect not a fall, but, on the contrary, that the dollar will strengthen, and the pair will rise to the zone of 108.50-109.00. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this forecast;

    - Cryptocurrencies. Giving long-term forecasts is a blessing. And the more distant the forecast, the better. If it does not come true, it's okay: everyone forgot about it a long time ago. And if the forecast is correct, then you can remind about yourself.
    For example, Tim Draper, the investor and head of Draper Associates, has predicted that Bitcoin would hit $250,000, possibly at the end of 2022, or maybe at the beginning of 2023. Well, only three years are left to wait.
    If we talk about more near forecasts, famous cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten is confident that Bitcoin will reach the $15,000 mark in a few weeks. It is possible that he is right, and a trend reversal is just around the corner, but so far there are no clear signs to buy, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is still at the “Fear” mark.
    [​IMG]


    Roman Butko, NordFX


    Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

    #eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

    https://nordfx.com/
     
  8. Stan NordFX

    Stan NordFX

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