Daily market analysis by NordFX

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 25-29 January 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- the experts’ opinion about EUR/USD’s bearish sentiment proved right – the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, this is exactly how short it was of the 1.0650 low indicated by graphical analysis. Thus, the forecast came half true;

- the GBP/USD pair met the expectations of the indicators, the experts and graphical analysis. The indicators had insisted on a further downtrend, and it did continue – the pair dropped another 200 points. The experts had also anticipated a rebound, which happened as well – from Thursday, the pair went up. Graphical analysis on H1 had claimed that the peak would be at 1.4370, and GBP/USD nearly got there, stopping short at 1.4362;

- the forecast for USD/JPY had consisted of two stages – first, a rise to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. That transpired to a tee – on Tuesday, the pair reached resistance at 118.10, rebounded from it and got to the low of 116.00 on Wednesday. The forecast had indicated that this cycle would take all week but USD/JPY completed both stages before Thursday. During Thursday and Friday, the pair went up to the lower boundary of the triangle, which had been formed over last August - October;

- there was no consensus about USD/CHF. The forecast by graphical analysis on H1 turned out to be more or less correct with some approximation – a rise to 1.01125 (the pair went up to 1.00825) and then a return to 1.0020 (the pair stopped at 1.0000). As for larger timeframes, graphical analysis on D1 had forecast quite a fast rise to 1.02500, and, in fact, USD/CHF went up sharply reaching 1.0165 by the end of the week.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Generalizing the opinions of scores of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- surprisingly, there is unanimity about EUR/USD as 75% of the analysts, all indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 vote for a fall to 1.0650-1.0700. Alternatively, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 support bullish sentiment and a rise to 1.0850-1.0900. After that, however, the pair should drop trying to reach the low of the first week of last December;

- the analysts' opinions on GBP/USD are split three almost even ways – 33% for a fall to 1.4000, 33% for a rise to 1.4550 and the remaining third for a sideways trend. The indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. Graphical analysis on D1 sides with those experts who speak about a further rebound upward, citing exactly the same level of 1.4550;

- the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict that USD/JPY will rebound to 119.50. However, the experts differ again – one-third of them are for a rise, 40% are for a side trend with a 118.00 pivot point and the rest are for the pair’s return to last week’s low;

- last week, graphical analysis predicted USD/CHF would soar to 1.02500. This bullish sentiment stands for this week too but with a corrected target of 1.0210, at which the pair should reverse and go back to the pivot point at 1.0080. The indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts agree with this view. The analysts set 1.0300 as the pair’s final longer-term target, followed by a drop to 0.9800, which may take 2-3 weeks.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 1-5 February 2016

First, about last week’s predictions:

- EUR/USD once again proved that the majority opinion may be wrong. The pair’s bullish sentiment was supported by only 25% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 but it is they who turned out to be right – straight from the market opening, the pair went up sharply and then, as predicted, plunged as sharply almost to the level of the start of the week;

- a third of the experts talked about GBP/USD’s rise to 1.4550 while another third supported a transition into a sideways trend in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. The weekly chart shows that both groups were right as the pair stayed in this corridor all five days, occasionally attempting to break its upper boundary and reach the target height. However, none of these attempts succeeded, and the pair ended up near the level of the start of the week;

- there are times when all forecasts, including alternative ones, prove incorrect. This is what happened when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced a negative interest rate policy for the first time, which resulted in the yen’s fall against all 16 major currencies. The USD/JPY pair needed just 1 day (29 January) to return to the level around which it had revolved during the past year;

- two weeks ago, the immediate target for USD/CHF was a rise to 1.0250. Last week, graphical analysis lowered it to 1.0210, which it shouldn’t have done as the pair easily reached 1.0255 on Friday, countering the rush to change forecasts.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the views of scores of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- opinions on EUR/USD once again turned out quite unanimous – 60% of the analysts, 100% of the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis at D1 vote for a fall to 1.0700 at least. With that, the pair may first rebound to resistance at 1.0990, then return to support at 1.0800, break through it and drop to 1.0700 and then further down to support at 1.0560;

- as for GBP/USD, 100% of the indicators look downward. However, the analysts differ. The indicators’ readings are supported by only 12% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair will go down gradually to support at 1.4120. A sideways trend is backed by 38% of the experts. Graphical analysis on D1 and the remaining 50% of the experts reckon that GBP/USD will rebound further upward, trying to reach 1.4630. With this, graphical analysis indicates that after the rebound the pair will return to the current level of 1.4240 by the end of February;

- the decision by the Bank of Japan left graphical analysis and most experts perplexed. At the same time, 25% of the experts and 90% of the indicators insist USD/JPY should continue to rise up to 122.30-123.00, and only one analyst believes that the pair will return to January’s main support of 116.50;

- most experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that USD/CHF will be moving in a 1.0200-1.0310 sideways channel for some time. However, graphical analysis on D1 insists that the pair should go down to support at 0.9920 and then enter a sideways corridor of 0.9920-1.0080. In the longer term, 40% of the analysts believe that 1.0310 is not the limit and the pair may rise to 1.0500.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 8-12 February 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- initially everything was going according to plan for EUR/USD – it rebounded to resistance at 1.0990 but then, instead of reversing and going down, it soared up to the values of last September-October. The reason for that was simply comments by US Federal Reserve official William Dudley who expressed doubts about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2016;

- Mr. Dudley’s remarks helped the 50% of the experts who, backed by graphical analysis on D1, reckoned that GBP/USD would continue to move up to 1.4630. The pair reached this level on Wednesday and, as expected, went down, finishing the week around 1.4500;

- after the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate policy, most experts were at a loss. Only one analyst believed that USD/JPY would return to the main support of January – 116.50, which happened, again thanks W. Dudley’s comments;

- graphical analysis on D1 insisted that USD/CHF should go down to support at 0.9920, and it did, mirroring EUR/USD’s movement.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- in the shorter term, the indicators and graphical analysis on H1 point to EUR/USD entering a sideways trend in a 1.1250-1.1220 range. As the previous week showed, all major currency pairs’ movements will certainly depend a lot on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this Wednesday. After the speech, EUR/USD may rise to 1.1350. However, over 70% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that the market has almost recovered after the bad news from the Federal Reserve, and the pair should return to 1.0400-1.0600 in the next couple of weeks;

- the experts' opinions split almost 50/50 in regards to GBP/USD. According to the indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the pair will be moving in a horizontal 1.4400-1.4545 channel in the near future. In the longer term, 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predict a rise to resistance at 1.4900. However, 60% of the experts don’t agree with this, insisting that the pair should fall and get to 1.4220 by the end of February;

- after USD/JPY nosedived last week, it’s clear that all indicators point downward. Considering the ‘war’ of interest rates between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the experts seem unable to reach a consensus – 35% are for a fall, another 35% are for a rise, and the rest 30% are for a sideways trend in a 116.40-118.25 range;

- the analysts are undecided about USD/CHF. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair will first go up to 0.9980, then fall to support at 0.9800, after which it is expected to rise to resistance at 1.0124 and return to around 1.025-1.032.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Double Success for NordFX in Forex Awards 2015

We are pleased to announce that NordFX has won in two nominations in the Forex Awards voting for 2015 –Best Micro Forex BrokerandBest Execution Broker.

Every year since 2010, Forex Awards selects the best forex and binary options brokers. Their expert community of active traders and website visitors votes for winners in a wide range of prestigious categories.

We at NordFX are very appreciative of such high marks for the company’s efforts in 2015 and will continue to do our best to offer traders the best and the most useful for successful trading on Forex.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 15-19 February 2016


First, about last week’s forecast:

- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out 100% – the pair remained in a sideways trend until mid-week, then, after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech, it broke through resistance at 1.1250 and rose to 1.1350. On achieving this, the pair reverted to 1.1250, turning it into support;

- the forecast for GBP/USD was that the pair would be moving in a 1.4400-1.4545 horizontal channel all week long. That actually happened – the pair stayed between 1.4380 support and 1.4560 resistance for all five days;

- it appeared impossible to make an intelligible prediction for USD/JPY as the experts’ opinions were split almost equally. In fact, the indicators and those who foresaw a further spectacular nosedive proved right. In two weeks, the pair plunged from 121.70 to the bottom of 111.00, i.e. by over 1,000 points, and reached the level of October 2014;

- last week, the analysts were at a loss regarding USD/CHF. The indications of graphical analysis were only partially correct. As expected, at the beginning of the week the pair approached 0.9980, then went down and quickly reached support at 0.9800. After that, instead of rebounding, USD/CHF moved further down, touched the bottom at 0.9660 and only then returned to 0.9800.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

- as for EUR/USD, 65% of the experts and the indicators on D1 talk about a continuing uptrend. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair may go up to 1.1400 during the week and only then move down. The remaining 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 expect the pair to fall within the next five days. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates that EUR/USD may stay in a sideways corridor of 1.1225-1.1320 for a day or two at the beginning of the week and then go down to the first support at 1.1150 and then even lower to 1.1030;

- according to graphical analysis, GBP/USD will first bounce to support at 1.4365 and then return to the upward trend that started in the last decade of January. The target is 1.4670. Both 60% of the analysts and the indicators on H1, H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. In the longer term, most experts tend to believe that the pair will again test the bottom of 1.4100;

- obviously the indicators haven’t yet come around after USD/JPY’s crash of the last two weeks. According to most experts and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its rebound up to resistance at 115.60;

- opinions about USD/CHF are split rather evenly – 40% of the experts are for a rise, 35% are for a fall and 25% are for a sideways trend. A similar pattern is observed with the indicators – a rise on H1, a fall on D1 and a compromise midway on H4 supporting neutral movement. Graphical analysis shows a further upward trend – on H4, the support line of the channel passes through the points of 0.9660 and 0.9720, and the resistance line passes through 0.9755 and 0.9810.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 22-26 February 2016


First, about the forecast for the previous week:

- as for EUR/USD, 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 were correct in their forecast that the pair would fall in the last five workdays. As predicted, the pair reached the first support at 1.1150 and then tried to reach the second support at 1.1030 but halfway through it reversed and finished the week at 1.1131;

- the GBP/USD pair’s drop was greater than expected. After breaking through support at 1.4365, the pair fell to 1.4245 and entered a 1.4245-1.4395 sideways channel with a 1.4310 Pivot Point;

- after the crash that started 1 February, the experts hoped that USD/JPY would rebound at least to 115.60 but it couldn’t even reach 115.00. The pair froze at 114.87 for half an hour and moved down again, finishing the week even lower than at the beginning of the week – around 112.55;

- the forecast for USD/CHF by graphical analysis and 40% of the analysts turned out to be totally correct. The pair continued to move upward to 0.9967, took a break and went down to support at 0.9890.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- in the next 2-3 days, EUR/USD can rise a bit and reach resistance at 1.2222 as proposed by graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H1 and H4. In the longer term, the number of supporters of a downtrend grows in proportion to the time interval. Thus, in the weekly timeframe 55% of the experts vote for a fall, in the monthly timeframe it is already 65%, and in the quarterly one it’s 78%. Graphical analysis paints quite an apocalyptic picture on D1 – in the next 2-3 weeks, the pair may totally crash, hitting the bottom at 1.0500;

- as for GBP/USD, 40% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate that now the pair is at the top boundary of a 1.4200-1.4400 channel, along which it will be moving all week. This is echoed by 33% of the indicators on H4 and 75% of them on D1. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that end of this week or early next week, GBP/USD will break through the top boundary of the channel, turn resistance into support and continue its sideways trend in a 1.4400-1.4620 range with a 1.4500 pivot point;

- according to 60% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis, USD/JPY will continue to fall at least to 110.70 (the next support is at 110.00) and then bounce up first to the current level of 112.55 and afterwards higher, the target being 115.00;

- about 70% of the experts tend to believe that USD/CHF will rise first to the key level of 1.0000 and then up to 1.0200. Graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 show that before rising, the pair may spend some time in a 0.9830-0.9930 sideways trend with prevailing bearish sentiment.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 29 February - 4 March 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- the vast majority of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predicted a fall for EUR/USD, which happened, and the pair shed more than 200 points during the week;

- the prediction of 40% of the experts and graphical analysis that GBP/USD should bounce down from resistance at 1.4400 proved right. However, under the influence of the news about the UK’s EU membership referendum, instead of entering a sideways trend, the pair easily broke support at 1.4200 and crashed, finishing the week around the lows of 2001 and 2009;

- the forecast for USD/JPY panned out almost 100%. According to it, the pair was supposed to go down to support at 110.70, then shoot up to 112.55 and then even higher, ultimately targeting 115.00. In reality, the pair fell to 111.04, reversed upward, tested resistance at 112.55, broke through it on the second try, turning it into support, and soared up to 114.00;

- graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 were right about USD/CHF moving in a sideways channel for some time. At the same time, in line with the general trend to regain its position above 1.0000, the pair made several attempts to break through the top boundary of the channel, and it was able to consolidate just above 0.9960 by Friday evening.


Forecast for Coming Week

Generalizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- the forecast for EUR/USD for March remains unchanged – first, the pair should break through support at 1.0800 and then at 1.0700, reach the bottom around 1.0500 and try to recover losses by returning to the current level of 1.0930. This scenario is supported by 54% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. As for the coming week, 70% of the analysts expect the pair to bounce up and temporarily return to 1.1066-1.1150. The remaining experts are split evenly – 15% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend;

- all the indicators on H4 and D1 point downward for GBP/USD. The analysts’ opinions are divided, with the bulls having an edge – 50% vote for a rise and 40% for a drop. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, in the next few weeks, the pair will still try to reach the low of 2009 at 1.3500, after which it will return to resistance at 1.4080. With this said, graphical analysis on H1 elaborates that before going downward, the pair may rise a bit and reach 1.3910;

- in their attempt to predict USD/JPY’s movement, both experts and indicators are quite neutral, with somewhat bullish sentiment. Graphical analysis agrees with them overall – USD/JPY should first rise to 114.50 (or even to 115.00) and only then go down to support at 112.55;

- as for USD/CHF, 65% of the experts tend to believe that after reaching the key level of 1.0000, the pair will rebound to another strong level of 0.9800 and only then move up again to 1.0200-1.0300. This is echoed by the indicators and graphical analysis, the latter drawing support 100 points higher at 0.9900.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 7-11 March 2016


For starters, an overview of last week’s forecast:

- the forecast for EUR/USD can be counted as fulfilled. Executing the suggested monthly scenario, the pair first tried to break support at 1.0800, failed to do it and moved on to the weekly scenario. According to most experts’ predictions, the pair bounced upward and reached 1.1043 on Friday following the news from the USA;

- as for GBP/USD, those 50% of the experts who had voted for the pair’s rise were right. Although, graphical analysis on H1 supporting them had underestimated the bulls’ power – the pair quickly turned resistance at 1.3910 into support, rebounded off it and got to resistance at 1.4248 by the end of the week;

- the experts and the indicators were neutral in their forecasts for USD/JPY and were quite right. The pair finished the week exactly at the same level it had started from. With a little tolerance, graphical analysis was also correct setting the boundaries of the side channel as 112.55 and 114.50;

- the experts suggested that on reaching the key level of 1.0000, USD/CHF would drop to 0.9800. Graphical analysis agreed elaborating that support could be 100 points higher and proved right – after going down, the pair never managed to drop below a 0.9880-0.9910 resistance zone.



Forecast for Coming Week

Generalizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various types of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- the experts are surprisingly unanimous about EUR/USD this time. Most of them (65%) vote for a downtrend both on the weekly and monthly intervals. Graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agrees with them, clarifying that the pair should first descend to around 1.0910, after which it can bounce back to the current level of 1.1010 and enter a sideways trend for some time. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show larger fluctuations – a fall to 1.0710 and a rise to last February’s high of 1.1340;

- there’s unanimity among the analysts regarding GBP/USD. On the weekly and monthly intervals, 60% of them vote for a fall, 30% for a sideways trend and only 10% for a rise. It’s obviously a different story with the indicators – on H1, all of them point to a rise; on H4, their number is 83% and it’s just 50% on D1. Graphical analysis draws a 1.4070-1.4375 side channel whereas first, the pair may fluctuate in a narrower range from 1.4150 to 1.4250;

- according to the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend within 113.00-114.50 at the beginning of the week. Only about 20% of the analysts support this. Their overwhelming majority believes that the pair should rise and try to reach 116.00-116.50 while just one analyst expects another fall to support at 111.00;

- most experts (55%) stick with the view that USD/CHF should make it to support at 0.9800 after all. Then it should reverse upwards, break the defence line of 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200 within a month. Graphical analysis agrees with this overall, adjusting support 50 points up at 0.9850.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 14-18 March 2016


First, about last week’s forecast:

- the forecast for EUR/USD was unfolding more or less according to plan till the middle of Thursday – the pair first went down, then rebounded, set two boundaries of the corridor and entered a sideways trend. Specifically on 10 March, following the announcement about the ECB’s decision on interest rates, the pair fell to 1.0821 but then ECB Head Mario Draghi turned the market opinion about and the pair soared by 500 points to 1.1217. Nonetheless, EUR/USD still stayed within the 1.0710-1.1340 channel set by the indicators and graphical analysis on D1;

- the forecast for GBP/USD provided by graphical analysis was the most precise – at the beginning of the week, the pair was supposed to be oscillating in the range from 1.4150 to 1.4250, then rise and reach 1.4375. All this happened for the most part – until Thursday, the pair moved in a 1.4132-1.4275 channel, then went up and finished the week around 1.4380;

- for USD/JPY, graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on all timeframes pointed to a further sideways trend within a 113.00-114.50 range. In reality, the pair did continue to move in the horizontal channel, virtually repeating the scenario of the previous week. As a result, the amplitude of its fluctuations was slightly greater than the predicted 12.22-114.44. With that, USD/JPY once again finished the week exactly where it had started – at 113.80;

- for two weeks in a row, the experts insisted that USD/CHF should reach the 0.9800 support, which the pair finally did last Thursday.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as the forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- in their forecasts for EUR/USD, 75% of the experts, graphical analysis and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 rely on the idea that the ‘magic’ of Mario Draghi’s words will last another week at least, and the pair will thus rise even more – to 1.1200-1.1240. Some of the more radical analysts suggest that it may even reach early February’s highs near 1.1350. As for the monthly forecast, almost the same 75% of the experts already speak about a drop to around 1.0800-1.1000. In the meantime, 1.1080 can be considered the strongest support level;

- the experts are unanimous about GBP/USD – 75% of them, supported by the indicators, believe that the pair should reach resistance at 1.4500. Graphical analysis elaborates that the pair will briefly stay at this level and, on breaking support at 1.4370, will first go down to 1.4250-1.4370 for some time and then drop more – to support at 1.4120. This scenario is backed by 65% of the analysts;

- there is no agreement among the experts nor the indicators regarding USD/JPY. About half of them are for a rise while the other half are for a fall. As a result, a sideways channel in a range from 111.00 to 114.50 with a 113.25 pivot point is probable. In the longer term, 60% of the analysts believe that the pair will move up to 117.00; 30% propose a drop to 110.00, and the rest 10% aren’t certain;

- the forecast for USD/CHF is 65% of the experts and 95% of the indicators suggest the pair’s fall to support at 0.9700-0.9750, after which it will resume breaking through 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

On 11 March 2016, IAIR Awards held a ceremony in Hong Kong in honor of its winners for 2016. NordFX was recognized as Broker of the Year / Forex Trading India.

IAIR Awards’ motivation for selecting NordFX is – “For consistently meeting the strictest standards of financial stability and proper handling and security of client funds within a transparent, sincere and productive operating structure. Through the offer of the most popular financial instruments trading software, NordFX makes trading more comfortable, convenient and effective for all customers.”

We’re very thankful for this acknowledgement of our efforts and the quality of our services. NordFX always sets as its top priority to provide consistently stable and profitable trading conditions for our customers in India, Asia at large as well as other parts of the world.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 21-25 March 2016​

First, about last week’s forecast:
-the forecast for EUR/USD proved 100% correct. The main support was set at 1.1080, and the suggested peak for the pair’s rise was at 1.1350. In fact, from Monday to Wednesday, the pair relied on support around 1.1060-1.1080, and then on the news from the USA, it moved up reaching 1.1342, as expected;

- although GBP/USD finally reached the forecast resistance level of 1.4500, it did so only after it dropped considerably, breaking through all the expected support levels and rebounding from a 1.4052 bottom;

- in the forecast for USD/JPY, the 50% of the experts supporting a fall turned out to be right. The pair did drop, made it to support at 111.00, as predicted by the experts, and finished the week at 111.52;

- the USD/CHF pair was supposed to go down to support at 0.9700, which happened. The pair even overdid it a bit – it dropped 50 points going down to 0.9650 and entered a sideways trend, carefully sticking to the 0.9700 area just as the analysts had said.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- the experts' opinions about EUR/USD are divided – about 40% of them are for a rise, another 40% are for a fall, and the remaining 20% support a sideways trend. As for the indicators, 75% of them on H4 and 100% on D1 point upwards. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with it, setting the target as last August’s high of 1.1700. With this, according to graphical analysis on H4, before starting to rise, EUR/USD may bounce off resistance at 1.1380 and fall to 1.1130. In the longer term, most analysts still tend to believe the pair will go down at least to 1.0500 in the next few months;

- according to graphical analysis and 55% of the experts, GBP/USD may first move in a 1.4360-1.4650 sideways channel for several days and then drop sharply to 1.4230. The long-term forecast, supported by 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1, suggests the pair should fall even more attempting to reach 1.3840, the low of the end of last February;

- it’s obvious that the indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, most analysts and graphical analysis on D1 reckon that the pair has almost reached its bottom and will be moving in a 110.00-113.00 sideways channel for some time;

- graphical analysis on H4 and 70% of the experts insist that USD/CHF should rise at least to resistance at 0.9850, with the ultimate target of moving above the key level of 1.0000. Support remains at 0.9650.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 28 March - 1 April 2016
​

First, an overview of last week’s forecast:

- regarding EUR/USD, those 40% of the experts that predicted a fall were right. The forecast of graphical analysis on H4 also turned out correct, indicating that last week’s bottom would be around 1.1130. On Thursday, the pair almost reached this level, stopping at 1.1143;

- the forecasts about GBP/USD’s sharp drop panned out 100%. The pair paused briefly at the lower boundary of the sideways channel – at 1.4360, broke through it and plunged to support at 1.4230. Then, trying to reach last February’s lows, it went even further down to 1.4080;

- the analysts and graphical analysis claimed that USD/JPY had reached its bottom and therefore should bounce upwards to 113.00, which happened. The pair wrapped up the week at 113.03;

- the USD/CHF pair was predicted to rise to 0.9850. The pair was just short of it when it got to 0.9786 on Friday. Thus, this forecast can be considered as fulfilled at least by 90%.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

- this week will be filled with releases of various important economic data. Perhaps, that is why there is no consensus among the experts regarding EUR/USD. Thus, 55% of them insist on the pair’s rise and transition to 1.1340-1.1470. The rest of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4, on the other hand, point to a possible fall to 1.1055. In this case, there may be a slight rise to resistance at 1.1220 before the fall;

- according to the analysts, the prospects for GBP/USD seem quite ambiguous – 40% of the analysts are for a rise, about the same number are for a drop and 20% predict a sideways trend. However, the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 clearly point down. With this, GBP/USD may go up slightly to 1.4170-1.4240, then it should move downwards – first to support at 1.4070, then to 1.3970 and further down to last February’s lows around 1.3850;

- the experts’ opinions about USD/JPY are split almost equally. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show a sideways channel with two scenarios for the boundaries – fluctuations around 112.30-113.50 on H4 and around 110.70-114.00 on D1 with gradual consolidation near support. In the longer term, both graphical analysis and 70% of the experts point to USD/JPY’s subsequent sharp rebound from the lower boundary up to 117.00, which may happen in the second half of April;

- there is nothing new for USD/CHF – 65% of the experts, graphical analysis and 70% of the indicators on H4 predict a rise first to resistance at 0.9880 and then further to 1.0100. Support is still at 0.9650 like last week.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 4-8 April 2016


Overview of last week’s predictions:

- in the previous forecast, 55% of the experts insisted that EUR/USD should rise and transition into 1.1340-1.1470, and they were right. On Friday, the pair went up to 1.1438, bounced down to support at 1.1335 and stopped almost in the middle of this range – at 1.1392;

- all of March GBP/USD performed large-scale fluctuations, which perplexed many analysts. Last week, the pair acted in a similar way – first, it rose by 340 points and then dropped by 290 points;

- technical analysis on H4 pointed to USD/JPY moving within a 112.30-113.50 range while D1 showed a wider range of 110.70-114.00 with gradual consolidation around support. The pair completed the week right in-between – it bounced off resistance at 113.80, moved down and stopped at 111.60;

- USD/CHF moved in an unexpected manner. Instead of a rise, it broke through support at 0.9650 and fell by another 60 points, ending the week at 0.9587.


Upcoming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- according to 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, the EUR/USD pair is predicted to rise at least to 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts and graphical analysis reckon that the pair can aim even higher at 1.1700, with strong support of 1.1400. Conversely, the remaining 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 consider 1.1400 as strong resistance from which the pair should drop sharply to support at 1.1165. The beginning of the week will make it clear which scenario will play out;

- the indicators and graphical analysis predict a fall for GBP/USD. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this while the rest of them are on the other side of the fence. Nonetheless, all of them believe that the amplitude of the pair's fluctuations will remain within the boundaries of past three weeks. In the longer term, technical analysis and more than half of the experts still expect the pair to fall to last February’s lows around 1.3850;

- the forecast of graphical analysis on D1 for USD/JPY stays unchanged – first, fluctuations within the 110.70-114.00 range with gradual consolidation near support and then a sharp bounce from the lower boundary up to 117.00. This is supported by 100% of the indicators and 65% of the experts who also warn that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April or early May;

- about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that USD/CHF hasn’t completed its fall yet and the bottom is last October’s lows around 1.9485. The remaining 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 are sure that it's time for the pair to go up – first to 0.9740 and then further to resistance at 0.9880. Support is 0.9570.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals for March 2016

Overview by NordFX Expert


The MQL5 Signals service integrated into the MetaTrader platform is becoming more and more popular as it allows even amateurish investors to collect profits by automatically copying experienced traders’ signals. It takes just a few clicks to subscribe to one or more such signals. On its face, it looks as easy as it can get. However, practice shows that in pursuit of grand profits, subscribers rather often fail to assess risks correctly. To help to avoid such mistakes, we regularly publish ratings of the most sought-after signals, complementing them with comments by a professional – NordFX leading analyst John Gordon.

The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for March 2016 is presented below.

I. Green Line Signals (increase 668%, 296 subscribers),

II. Pound Aussie Real (increase 855%, 274 subscribers),

III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (increase 49%, 225 subscribers),

IV. Magic profits (increase 14133%, 180 subscribers),

V. Q2FX (increase 1300%, 126 subscribers),

IV. Geylani (increase 81%, 112 subscribers),

VII. LidziyaForex (increase 113%, 89 subscribers),

VIII. George Soros (increase 1986%, 76 subscribers),

IX. HnGcg (increase 58%, 75 subscribers),

X. Night Hunter (increase 313%, 73 subscribers).

Six of the current leading signal providers were in the February top 10 as well. They are:

- Green Line Signals jumped from the 5th place to number one;

- Pound Aussie Real went up to the 2nd place from the 4th in February;

- MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 kept its 3rd position;

- Magic profits swapped the 8th place for the 4th in March.

Two signals, on the contrary, lost positions – LidziyaForex forfeited the top place and dropped to the 7th while HnGcg moved to the 9th place from the 6th.

“I’ll begin the overview with two signals from the March and February top lists, – says the NordFX leading analyst. – Last month, I was surprised by LidziyaForex’s popularity among the subscribers who had invested over a million dollars in it. I also urged to evaluate all risks before signing up for this signal provider.

The fact is that this signal has been around only since last December and its maximum drawdown is as much as 57%. Analysis of the trades has shown that most often the provider simply waits for a losing position to become winning and locks in losses only in an emergency.

Unfortunately, my worst fears got confirmed in March – a 45% loss is a serious financial blow for the subscribers. Those who signed up early are actually lucky as they are still sitting on profits while those who subscribed over the last few weeks lost almost half of their investments. As a result, three quarters of the subscribers unfollowed LidziyaForex. Moreover, the signal provider seems to have thrown in the towel too by announcing that as of 1 May, the signal would cease to exist.

With this, I have a déjà vu feeling about March’s new leader Green Line Signals – it reminds me of LidziyaForex that much. Consider: the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%.

Nevertheless, subscriber feedback about this signal is mostly positive, which can be explained by impressive growth – about 700% in three months. Still, it’s not all that great as it may sound: +220% in January, +96% in February and slightly more than 25% in March. It’s called the reverse martingale, a strategy when the trader boldly builds up the initial deposit amount but then starts reducing risks gradually, so profits drop too consequently. Time will tell whether I’m right in this case.

In terms of stable profits, it’s worth mentioning the signal Magic profits. It’s about 3.5 years old, and it’s some assurance of reliability. The ratio of winning and losing months is 40 to 1, average growth is 10-20% a month, and the only loss was under 10%. Hence, such a remarkable result. Subscribers don’t need to be concerned by quite a large number of trades – about 180 a week. The signal provider averages positions and opens series of orders with a small lot size. What’s not so good about Magic profits is its maximum drawdown of 58%. It’s easy to reduce risks here – go to the trading terminal settings and reduce maximum deposit load for signal copying. Naturally, profits will get smaller but it makes sense in this case. For example, by reducing the load to 50%, the subscriber can count on 130-210% in profits per year with a possible drawdown of about 30%. Quite decent figures, in fact.

Out of the newcomers, the signal Q2FX is interesting in terms of the growth to drawdown ratio – 1,300% growth in 7 months and a 10% drawdown. Its trading results indicate that here a grid expert advisor may be used that opens lots of pending orders while averaging positions.

Night Hunter is reasonably good too – growth of 313% in a year and a half, with a 40% drawdown. In this case, though, the correlation of deposits of the provider and the subscriber has to be taken into account, otherwise the $30 subscription may turn this signal into a losing one.

This doesn’t concern the following three signals – MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842, HnGcg and Geylani. I suppose it’s because of free subscriptions that they got into the top 10, considering that their trading results aren’t off the charts.

Finally, George Soros is noteworthy due to the fact that it lies in the 8th place in the subscribers’ ratings and in the 2nd place in the ratings by MetaQuotes, the developer of MT4 and MT5. The signal has been yielding rather stable profits for almost a year. The biggest drawdown of 36% happened last December. In the first 3 months of 2016, the signal produced 90% growth with a drawdown under 20%.”

John Gordon sums up, “In conclusion, I’d like to remind that before subscribing to a signal, it’s important to carefully study online monitoring data, assess potential risks and set maximum deposit load and maximum loss in the trading terminal settings. All this will make you feel much more confident as a passive investor.”

 

[Julia NordFX]

New conditions of the Affiliate Program

Dear Partners and Customers,

Thank you for being part of the NordFX Affiliate Program! We are pleased to announce that as of 11 April 2016, new conditions of the Affiliate Program come into effect and partner commissions will be almost doubled! This is the most significant upgrade in the history of our Affiliate Program.

The basic commissions increase as follows:

• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!

VIP partners get even more attractive terms:

• For “Micro” – commission 50% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – commission 40%!

Current NordFX partners will be transferred to the new conditions automatically.

The updated terms and the revised Partner Agreement can be viewed in detail on the website http://nordfxpartners.com/.

We trust that you will see value in such a major improvement of the partner conditions and considerably increase your revenues from the NordFX Affiliate Program.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 April 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- the forecast for EUR/USD suggested that the battle line for the bulls and the bears would be drawn at 1.1400. However, the fact that they were actually equal in force was a surprise. As a result, neither of them could gain the upper hand and the week started and ended at the same level of 1.1400;

- the forecast that GBP/USD will be moving towards last February’s lows is starting to pan out. Last Wednesday, the pair sharply reached 1.4000 but, as expected, it quickly returned to the sideways channel, in which it has been moving for the last three weeks;

- the predictions for USD/JPY turned out incorrect. The pair reached the 110.70 support very fast but then, spurred by economic news from Japan, easily broke through it and went further down, finishing the week around 108.00;

- the USD/CHF pair demonstrated a sluggish sideways trend, making minor fluctuations around a 0.9570 pivot point.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summarizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- the W1 chart for EUR/USD clearly shows an ascending channel that started to form at the beginning of last December. Now the pair is basically at its top boundary. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, after rebounding from it, the pair should go down to the central line of 1.1135 and then return to 1.1500. The experts still hold onto the pivot point of 1.1400, indicating a sideways channel with quite a narrow range of 1.1320-1.1500;

- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 65% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining experts believe that the pair will continue to fluctuate in March’s range of 1.4050-1.4450;

- it is clear that all indicators point down for USD/JPY. Two-thirds of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree and reckon that the pair should reach the bottom at 105.50. Graphical analysis warns that a short-term surge up to resistance at 111.00 is possible before that. The longer-term forecast remains in force – USD/JPY should return to 114.70-117.00 in late April - early May;

- about 80% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 continue to wait for USD/CHF to bounce upward. The next target is to return to around 0.9800. Support is at 0.9500.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016


Overview of Last Week’s Forecast

- EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of 1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;

- the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;

- graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;

- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;

- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;

- all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;

- about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

New conditions of the Affiliate Program

Correction!

The basic commissions increase as follows:

• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30%!

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;

- despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;

- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

-according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;

- even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;

- it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;

- about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.


Roman Butko, NordFX