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Canada Core CPI m/m June 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 21 2021 Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

Check out the price action here:

February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.

Check out the price action here:

I will use forecasts of:

CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.5
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.4
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.4

Today's trade plan

Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.

Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.

Tradable pairs


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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