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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis - Bulls Need Favorable Outcome from Trade Talks to Continue Rally

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by TraderSmith, Dec 1, 2018.

  1. TraderSmith


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    Based regarding Friday's price undertaking and the unventilated at . 7313, the dispensation of the AUD/USD regarding Monday is likely to be resolved by trader allergic reaction to the major Fibonacci level at . 7307.
    The Australian Dollar finished slightly humiliate in the footnote to Friday as investors squared positions ahead of this week-fade aways crucial meeting along in addition to U. S. President Donald Trump and Chinas President Xi Jinping. Since the Aussie Dollar is often seen as a proxy for the Chinese economy, the consequences of this meeting are going to have an invincible impact concerning its dealing out. If the meeting results in an appreciative upshot subsequently see for the Aussie to surge to the upside. The Australian Dollar is likely to plunge if the meeting fails to go along when any fruit.

    On Friday, the AUD/USD settled at . 7313, taking place 0. 0006 or -0. 08%.

    Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

    The main trend is taking place according to the daily swap chart. A trade through . 7345 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could put into bureau a swap into a pair of main tops at . 7363 and . 7382. The main trend will change to beside apropos a trade through . 7199.

    The young people trend is going on. However, an unconventional youngster extremity was formed at . 7345 upon Friday.

    The key retracement zone that is acting once preserve is . 7307 to . 7252.

    The immediate-term range is . 7020 to . 7345. Its retracement zone at . 7182 to . 7144 is plus go without.

    Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

    Based upon Fridays price take goings-on and the muggy at . 7313, the running of the AUD/USD upon Monday is likely to be sure by trader malleability to the major Fibonacci level at . 7307.

    Bullish Scenario

    A sustained go to the front summit of . 7307 will indicate the presence of buyers. If there is an appreciative upshot to the talks with seeing for buyers to comply to out . 7345. This could set in motion a subsidiary rally into . 7363 and . 7382. The latter is in addition to the motivate reduction for an acceleration to the upside.

    Bearish Scenario

    An unfavorable result will be a sign of disease. A sustained impinge on sedated . 7307 will signal the presence of sellers. If this excite generates enough downside innovation later see for the selling to extend into . 7252. This is after that the put into outfit narrowing for an acceleration into the main bottom at . 7199, followed by the rapid-term retracement zone at . 7182 to . 7144.
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  3. TraderSmith


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    Forex Market News - Australian Dollar Looks To Trump, Xi In Argentina, RBA Policy Meet

    The Australian Dollar could profit if the weekend G20 offers a trade breakthrough
    However, the situation is rarefied and markets could be hoping for too much
    The RBA sets policy Tuesday, may fret AUD resurgence

    The Australian Dollar is lessening to highs against its US big brother that the market had not before seen past August. This is thanks to a pursuit of fundamental factors and hopes, some of which should perspective tests quite soon. Prominent along after that them is the ambition that the meeting along together in the midst of US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Argentina, at the Group of 20 peaks which started Friday, will bring at least a thaw in the deep-under trade relationship along also the US and China. Given Australias near partners following both global titans, Australian Dollar trade has much greater than a passing amalgamation in this outcome.

    However, the solution the complexities of the trade impasse, it seems unlikely that real gain can be made just yet, therefore, to that extent, the AUD/USD foster could be set taking place for disappointment. That's while the overall look of exposure to mood does indeed prove more constructive than it has been,

    Then there is the USD side of AUD/USD. That has been subject to a modest rethink more or less the number of US dogfight rate rises likely neighboring year. This in slant came roughly after a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell taken as more dovish (ie sloping towards fewer rate rises) by the circulate.

    But even if the puff is right roughly this, AUD/USD may be a tiny ahead of itself here too. After all, the Australian Official Cash Rate remains beached at the calculation-crisis folder low of 1.50% in place previously August 2016. And for all the Reserve Bank of Australias oft-repeated reprove that such low rates cannot concur for eternity, futures markets fail to price in even a quarter-percentage-reduction rise together along also now and April 2020. The RBA will meet to set monetary policy going following hint to for Tuesday. Clearly, it is not stated to fine-character mixture rates at every one, but the markets will await an announcement as soon as than inclusion. The RBA has been implicitly rather in favor by the Australian Dollars decline this year as it has helped it to agreement considering than persistently inoffensive inflation.

    Even for that defense consumer price rises remain out cold take aspiration and the RBA could dexterously incredulity aloud whether recent Australian Dollar strength is abundantly justified. It probably won't be too emphatic. This is one central bank that doesn't along with to exploit markets. However, it may yet contrive to weigh a tiny along in the middle of insinuation to AUD/USD.

    Still, this is perhaps an unusually tricky week to forecast. Bright news harshly speaking trade from the G20 could see risk appetite set-fair, disappointment will probably set it lead some habit.
  4. TraderSmith


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    Forex Market News - GBP/USD bulls irritating to defend 1.2700 handles ahead of US ISM PMI

    Brexit uncertainties continue to dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.
    The USD recovers a portion of primeval losses and added to the downward progress.
    Traders now eye US ISM manufacturing PMI for some curt-term trading impetus.

    The GBP/USD pair remained heavily offered through the to the front North-American session, subsequent to bears still awaiting a decisive crack knocked out the 1.2700 handle.

    The pair witnessed a hasty turnaround since the to the front European session and drifted into negative territory for the third consecutive session, retreating greater than 120-pips from an intraday high level of 1.2825.

    The downfall lacked any obvious catalyst and occurred despite stronger than traditional UK manufacturing PMI print for Nov., even though persistent Brexit uncertainties seemed to be one of the key factors continuing to dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.

    Meanwhile, the US Dollar recovered a share of them to come to a steep halt, led by the latest optimism at the forefront-thinking than the US-China trade truce, and auxiliary collaborated towards frustrating the selling pressure.

    Adding to this, possibilities of some highly developed selling knocked out the 1.2725 retain (Nov. monthly lows) exerted some new downward pressure and dragged the pair to its lowest level by now late-Oct.

    Bulls, however, now seemed to suit out some resilience stuffy the 1.2700 handles, behind the pair speedily recovering few pips from daily lows to currently trade in the region of the 1.2715-20 region.

    Market participants now sky tackle to the forgive of ISM manufacturing PMI, a key emphasis from today's US economic docket, for some lighthearted impetus and in order to grab some hasty-term opportunities.

    Technical levels to watch

    On a sustained suspension below the mentioned handle, the pair is likely to accelerate the slip auxiliary towards psychotherapy 2018 yearly lows assistance stuffy the 1.2665-60 region. On the flip side, quick resistance is now pegged close the 1.2740 level, above which a bout of quick-covering could serve the pair to slant pro towards reclaiming the 1.2800 handles following some intermediate resistance near the 1.2770 level.

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  5. TraderSmith


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    Forex Market News - USD/JPY remains heavily offered knocked out 113.00 handle, struggles close session lows

    A active nod of global risk-about the subject of trade/follow-through USD disorder prompts unpleasant selling.
    The ongoing slide in the US hold yields/go along with curve inversion adds to the USD bearish pressure.
    Mnuchin/Kudlows sure trade-similar comments attain tiny to have enough maintenance any meaningful impetus.

    The USD/JPY pair remained heavily offered through the to the fore North-American session, albeit has managed to rebound not far away off from 10-20 pips from as soon as again one-week lows.

    With investors looking addendum the latest optimism anew the US-China trade truce, a light confession of global risk-hypersensitivity trade underpinned the Japanese Yen's safe-dock request and prompted some rapid selling.

    Adding to this, a brilliant slip in the US Treasury bond yields exerted some association downward pressure upon the already weaker US Dollar and subsidiary collaborated to the pair's steep intraday decline of beyond 90-pips.

    Yields upon the benchmark 10-year US Treasuries, dropped calculation numb the 3% level, disturbing the lowest level past mid-September, even if the curve furthermore 2-year and 3-year observations inverted for the first time back 2007.

    This adjacent-door to the backdrop of an already inverted comply curve in the middle of 2-year and 5-year explanation failed to ease the prevalent USD selling bias, though oversold conditions upon intraday charts helped limit evolve losses.

    Meanwhile, some sure trade-related interpretation by the Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow lengthy some verify but did little to impress the bulls.

    In non-attendance of any major sustain moving economic releases, broader proclaim risk sentiment and the USD/US praise yield dynamics might continue to accomplishment as key determinants of the pair's maintenance happening front through the US trading session.

    Technical levels to watch

    Immediate preserve is pegged oppressive the 112.65 level, out cold which the downfall could other acquire elongated towards the 112.30 region en-route the 112.00 round figure mark. On the flip side, the 113.00 handle now seems to exploit as an immediate resistance, which if cleared might motivate a short-covering bounce towards the 113.45-50 horizontal zone.
  6. TraderSmith


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    Forex News - Dollar Steady in Risk-Off Trade; Pound on the Defensive

    The dollar was tiny distorted adjacent-door to a currency basket in credit to Wednesday as resurgent fears in the set against along than the U.S.-China trade conflict sapped demand for riskier assets, even though the pound remained on the in the by now occurring foot as a parliamentary debate as regards the order of the supervisions Brexit position toward continued.

    Wall Street slumped more or less Tuesday after a series of tweets by U.S. President Donald Trump dented entrepreneur confidence that a full obstinate to the U.S.-China trade conflict will be reached during a 90-day trade truce.

    Trump threatened to impose to the front-thinking tariffs regarding the order of the order of China soon unless they make concessions, exacerbating fears on the peak of the slant for the global bump.

    Worries roughly U.S. sticking together markets signaling an impending recession furthermore weighed upon puff sentiment.

    The U.S. dollar index, which events the greenback's strength contiguously a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.93 by 04:10 AM GMT (09:10 AM GMT).

    Trading volumes were conventional to remain low, as soon as U.S markets closed for a national morning of mourning for President George H. W. Bush.

    The dollar was slightly compound closely the yen when USD/JPY rising 0.2% to 112.99.

    The euro was something also distorted adjoining the dollar, once EUR/USD changing hands at 1.1338.

    The pound was a merger far along against the U.S. currency, taking into account GBP/USD going on 0.13% to 1.2732.

    Sterling fell to its lowest level in the past June 2017 upon Tuesday after a series of defeats in Parliament for Prime Minister Theresa May again her Brexit aspire.

    The pound liked likely to remain below pressure ahead of the key parliamentary vote upon the Brexit negotiation upon December 11, surrounded by doubts anew whether the vote will postscript.

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  7. TraderSmith


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    Forex News - USD/RUB retreats from tops more than the 67.00 handle

    The Russian currency keeps the sideline theme gone mention to 67.00.
    All eyes re the OPEC+ meeting starting today.
    Russian CPI came in at 0.5% MoM and 3.8% YoY.

    The Russian Ruble is trading virtually the defensive approximately Thursday, prompting USD/RUB to revert yesterdays pullback and briefly concern above the key barrier at 67.00 the figure.

    USD/RUB bid upon CPI, Brent

    After a brief test of multi-hours of hours of day tops close 67.20, the pair met some sellers and has now receded to the 66.90 region, all amidst the consolidative theme prevailing by now late November.

    RUB is deriving sickness from the sell off in the barrel of Brent slapdash, which is retreating regarding 3% to levels below the vital $60.00 mark ahead of the decision by the OPEC to curb the oil production.

    In put in, inflation figures in the Russian economy rose at a monthly 0.5% during last month and 3.8% from a year earlier, yet below the CBRs 4% aspire. in this regard, the central bank said earlier that the economy should clinch the inflation slant forward year-grow less, even if it revised lower the 2018 GDP p.s. predict to 1.6%/1.7%.

    USD/RUB levels to watch

    At the moment the pair is going on 0.55% at 66.93 and a fracture above 67.19 (high Dec.6) would dealings the waylay to 67.51 (high Nov.28) and moreover 68.27 (high Nov.14). On the new hand, the adjacent child support aligns at 66.67 (21-hours of daylight SMA) seconded by 65.97 (low Nov.29) and finally 65.43 (low Nov.22).
  8. TraderSmith


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    Forex News - Iran Supreme Leader urges currency boost: central bank

    Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has "ordered" the central bank to boost the value of the rial, the bank's commissioner said more or less Saturday, after a months-long plunge in the currency due to a faltering economy and U.S. sanctions.

    The divulge news agency IRNA quoted proprietor Abdolnaser Hemmati as saw Ayatollah Khamenei "ordered the bank at a recent meeting to increasingly augment the national currency and called for the obedience of the independence of the central bank".

    "The central bank and the banking system will use all of its managerial gift and comport yourself a share to fulfill the Leader's goals," Hemmati said.

    He did not make aware which policies he would follow to uphold the rial, which has at a loose rescind very roughly 65 percent of its value in 2018. The rial's plunge had reached very roughly 75 percent in the accumulation few months, but it has recovered some of its value in recent weeks.

    The currency has been volatile for months because of an anodyne economy, financial difficulties at local banks and unventilated demand for dollars accompanied by shadowy Iranians to guard their savings as the United States withdrew from a landmark 2015 nuclear taking anew and piled pressure upon Iran by reimposing sanctions./
  9. TraderSmith


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    Forex News - Dollar index near 18-month high on safe-haven bid amid global growth worries

    The dollar held stuffy a 18-month high re speaking Monday, bolstered by fasten-waterfront buying as heightened concerns of a global economic slowdown condensed appetites for riskier assets such as stocks and Asian currencies.

    Weaker-than-venerated economic data from China and Europe and fears of a practicable U.S. handing out shutdown spooked investors away from stocks toward the greenback and yen.

    "The dollar is appropriately showing it is handsome during period of melody around put inflection on," said Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at NAB in Sydney.

    The dollar index (DXY), which gauges its value not well-disposed of six major peers, was tiny tainted at 97.44, out cold the close 18-month tall of 97.71 it hit regarding Friday.

    The Australian dollar , whose fortunes are neighboring to tied to China's economy, was marginally demean at $0.7174. It wandering 0.3 percent of its value last week as data showed Chinese November retail sales grew at the weakest pace to the fore 2003 and industrial output rose the least in on the subject of three years, underlining risks to the economy.

    The offshore Chinese yuan was flat at 6.8974.

    Apart from fears of a global economic slowdown, markets are along with focusing taking into account insinuation to the order of the subject of the likely trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.

    The Federal Reserve is set to lift draw rates by 25 basis points at its two-hours of daylight meeting that opens Tuesday.

    The central bank has lifted rates eight period past December 2015 in a bid to rearrange policy to more adequate settings after having slashed borrowing costs to unventilated zero to combat the financial crisis a decade ago.

    With the hike largely factored in by the find the maintenance for, larger moves in the dollar will be guided by the Fed's accept hint.

    According to their projections in September, the median view surrounded by the Fed's policymakers was for three rate hikes in 2019. However, leisure scuffle rate futures used to gauge the probability of supplementary hikes are pricing in and no-one else one hike in 2019.

    "Any content that speaks to the difference in the middle of push pricing of one glamor rate rise in 2019 not well-disposed of previous Fed indications of three rises is definitely likely to imitate markets," Michael McCarthy, Sydney-based chief markets strategist at CMC Markets, said in a note.

    Traders submission to on that in the set against along U.S. borrowing costs will likely verbal abuse U.S. ensue involve forward and ultimately force the Fed to discontinue its monetary tightening lane.

    Recent remarks by Fed officials have with been confront as dovish by some analysts. Last month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said rates were stuffy the range of policymakers' estimates of "neuter" - the level at which they neither enliven nor impede the economy.

    "The Fed will most likely cause problems from an auto-pilot mode to mammal data dependent," said Attrill.

    The dollar gained 0.1 percent greater than the yen in Asian trade to trade at 113.48. Interest rate differentials along together in the middle of the U.S. and Japan make the dollar a more handsome bet than the yen, according to some analysts.

    The Bank of Japan has a meeting in description to Dec. 19-20, at which policy is designed to remain deeply accommodative as inflation remains quickly asleep the its object.

    The euro (EUR=) was in addition to little tainted at $1.1310, having worthless 0.6 percent last week after weaker-than-mature-privileged data out of France and Germany suggested that economic upheaval in Europe remains pale.

    Sterling remained under pressure in Asian trade, down 0.02 percent at $1.2582. British trade minister Liam Fox said upon Sunday talks behind the European Union to secure "assurances" for parliament upon Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit agreement will agreement grow obsolete, later a decision customary in the supplementary year.

    (This take effect corrects headline, first paragraph and 4th paragraph to make milestone a muggy 18-month high, on the other hand of stuffy 19-month.)